Cleveland Sports Forum

Guardians To Promote Top Prospect Williams For His MLB Debut

Cleveland Guardians RHP prospect Gavin Williams will make his MLB Debut Wednesday against Oakland

TODD PAQUETTE57 MINUTES AGO

The Cleveland Guardians are promoting top pitching prospect 23-year-old RHP Gavin Williams Wednesday to make his MLB debut vs the Oakland A's.


Williams was the Guardians 2021 First Round Pick out of East Carolina started the 2022 season with Double-A Akron.




At Akron Williams just made three starts this season posting a 0.63 ERA over 14.1 innings pitched allowing just one run while striking out 20 batters. He was then promoted to Triple-A Columbus on April 27th.



Williams has made nine starts at Triple-A Columbus striking out 61 batters over 46.0 innings while posting a 2.93 ERA. William's fastball command hasn't been as sharp as it was at the Double-A level which has led to more walks which has gotten him into trouble at times. He has still however looked just as dominate at times.



Overall, on the 2023 season he has made 12 starts between Akron and Columbus posting a 2.39 ERA while striking out a farm leading 81 batters in 60.1 innings pitched. Opposing batters are only hitting .170 against him as he has allowed just 35 hits on the season leading to a 0.98 WHIP. He is averaging 12.08 strikeouts per nine innings pitched and striking out batters at a 34.3% rate of the at bats against him.

Scouting Report
Williams is a big young man with an electric arm that can touch triple digits. He has topped out at 101.1 mph with Triple-A Columbus this season. His fastball sits between 95-98 mph and can maintain that velocity for several innings. He has three other offerings besides his fastball including a curveball, which sits in the upper 70s with outstanding metrics. He also has a slider that shows potential of becoming a plus pitch that he throws in the mid-80s. Williams also throws a mid-80s changeup with fade.


Gavin becomes the third top starting pitching prospects that have debuted for the Guardians this season joining Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen. Stuff wise Williams might be the best of the three. He might be the most hyped pitching prospect to make his debut for Cleveland since C.C. Sabathia made his pro-debut back in 2021. Hopefully he can find just as make success at the MLB level as Sabathia was able to.

Wednesday will definitely be must see television as Williams looks to dominate the A's like he has dominated the minor leagues.

Cleveland Guardians
Current Record: 32-37
Projected Wins: 80.3
Playoff Percentage: 27.3
Magic Eight Ball's Buyer Synopsis: Cannot predict now.

At last year's deadline, the frugal Guardians were four games above .500 and one game back in the AL Central...and they did a whole lot of nothing, merely trading a backup catcher for a minor-league reliever. Moreover, they already made a much bigger offseason splash than usual in bringing in Josh Bell, so they may have already spent all they are willing to spend on the current campaign.

If they do find some spending money, though, look for all of it to go toward someone who can actually hit the ball out of the park, as the Guardians are dead last in home runs hit this season.

If they go the opposite route and become sellers, Bell has a $16.5 million player option for next season while Amed Rosario is an impending free agent. They've both been disappointing this season for Cleveland, but were both quite valuable in recent seasons.

My guess, though, is that Cleveland once again does a whole lot of nothing, content to try to overtake the Twins with what is already on the roster.

MLB trade deadline targets: Top 100 players on GMs’ radars in a wide-open market

the whole thing is available at:
https://theathletic.com/4624732/2023/06 ... ign=601983

HERE ARE SOME CURRENT AND PASS GUARDIANS/INDIANS

Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians — The Guardians have their ace under team control through next season and don’t intend to trade him before the deadline, unless they drop out of the American League Central race; then, if someone wants to overwhelm them with a package of young players, including some impactful outfield bats, they would listen. But Cleveland can always wait and trade Bieber in the offseason, like it did with Francisco Lindor to the Mets before the 2021 season.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Mets — It is possible the Mets sell at the deadline. If they do, they’ll try to peddle Carrasco, an impending free agent, along with their other veteran players.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, White Sox — Clevinger exited a game last Wednesday with right biceps soreness and later was placed on the injured list. If healthy, the 32-year-old can provide five to six innings per start in the back of a contender’s rotation. Like the rest of the White Sox’s starters, Clevinger could get traded if they fall out of it.

Brad Hand, LHP, Rockies — He’s had a nice year (3.42 ERA in 30 appearances), especially considering he’s pitching half his games at Coors Field. Opponents have a .153 XBA on his slider, which he throws 48 percent of the time.

Amed Rosario, Guardians — Rosario, 27, will be a free agent after this season. If the Guardians drop out of contention, they’ll probably move him at the deadline.

and here ARE SOME OUTFIELDERS IF CLE IS LOOKING TO BUY

Cody Bellinger, CF, Cubs — Bellinger was on the IL for about a month with a left knee contusion but returned last Thursday. He’s posted a 123 OPS+ in his 37 games before the injury and was worth 1.5 WAR. If the Cubs fade, they’ll likely trade Bellinger, whose contract includes a $12.5 million mutual option for 2024 ($5 million buyout). His ability to play first base, right field and center field at an above-average level combined with his bounce-back year (so far) at the plate increases his value.

Charlie Blackmon, RF, Rockies — Blackmon is on the IL with a broken hand, but if he’s back by the deadline it will be interesting to see if he wants to waive his no-trade rights to go to a contender. A team like the Mariners could use him at DH.

Michael Conforto, RF, Giants — A candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, Conforto has hit 12 homers, scored 37 runs and had 37 RBIs after missing the entire 2022 season. He has an opt-out clause in his contract after this season. The Giants would like to keep him long term, but if they falter, they could trade him.

Adam Duvall, CF, Red Sox — Duvall spent two months of the season on the IL but has posted a 1.067 OPS in 18 games. He’s a former Gold Glove-winning outfielder who led the NL with 113 RBIs and hit 38 homers in 2021. Duvall will be a free agent after this season and I expect him to get traded at the deadline.

Lane Thomas, RF, Nationals — Thomas is the Nationals outfielder most likely to be traded at the deadline, with teams like the Guardians and Yankees as possible fits. He has an .831 OPS with 11 homers and seven steals. He’s under team control through 2025.

Austin Hays, LF, Orioles — Hays has hit over .300 all season long — he’s currently batting .327/.366/.527 — and although the Orioles are not looking to trade him, their top outfield prospect, Colton Cowser, is major-league-ready. However, the only way they’d trade Hays is for a No. 2 or No. 3 type starting pitcher. He’s under team control through 2025.

Teoscar Hernández, RF, Mariners — Hernández has provided the power the Mariners wanted (24 extra-base hits) but not the outfield defense. He will be a free agent after this season and it doesn’t appear the Mariners are looking to extend him. If they fall out of the race, he could get traded to a team such as the Guardians or Marlins.

Starling Marte, RF, Mets — Age and decline have arrived for Marte, 34, but he still can be a contributor on a contending team. He’s stolen 19 bases in 22 attempts and is starting to swing the bat better recently. If the Mets sell, teams like the Yankees and Dodgers could benefit from his services.

Anthony Santander, RF, Orioles — As is the case with Hays, the Orioles don’t want to move the switch-hitting Santander, who hit 33 homers last season. However, for the right starting pitcher, they’ll listen to and weigh offers, as they should.

Dylan Carlson, CF, Cardinals — Carlson has disappointed in his first 1,200-plus at-bats in the big leagues since 2020, and it appears the Cardinals are ready to move on and will include him in trade packages. He’s under team control through 2026.

Lars Nootbaar, CF, Cardinals — The Cardinals love Nootbaar’s makeup, exit velocity and on-base skills, but that wouldn’t stop them from moving him for the right pitching upgrades. He’s under team control through 2027.

Alec Burleson, LF, Cardinals — Like Carlson and Nootbaar, the Cardinals won’t let him stand in the way of trades to improve their pitching staff.

Randal Grichuk, RF, Rockies — An impending free agent, Grichuk has slashed .292/.360/.416 in 172 plate appearances but is more of a platoon or fourth-outfielder type.

Jurickson Profar, LF, Rockies — Last year, Profar hit 15 home runs, reached base at a .331 clip and was a starter for the Padres in the NLCS. He’ll be a free agent after this season.

Besides not being Mike Zunino, what can Guardians expect from Bo Naylor? – Terry Pluto

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Is Bo Naylor ready to be a big league catcher?

The Cleveland Guardians are going to find out, and that’s a relief. They promoted Naylor from Class AAA over the weekend. Tuesday’s 3-2 victory over Oakland was his second game with Cleveland.

The Guardians must have thought Naylor was not prepared for the majors, which is why they signed Mike Zunino to a $6 million contract to open the season behind the plate. Zunino was coming off a season where he batted .148 (.499 OPS) with five HR in 36 games. He was striking out at an alarming rate, as he has most of his career

Zunino had major shoulder surgery on June 10, 2022, ending his season. The Guardians knew he was a gamble when they signed the 32-year-old catcher. They hoped he’d heal and repeat of his 2021 All-Star season when he belted 33 homers.

A month into the 2023 season, the Guardians had to know there were major problems with Zunino. It was more than his massive strikeout totals. He was a defensive disaster.
Manager Terry Francona has always stressed his priority for a catcher was working well with the pitching staff and being strong behind the plate. It had to painful for everyone involved with the Guardians to watch the classy Zunino fall apart this season.

IT’S BO’S TIME

When people say, “How can it be any worse?” it’s usually a comment grumbled in frustration rather than reality. But when it came to Zunino, that’s true. No need to dwell on the stats. He was at or near the bottom of nearly every defensive and hitting category for catchers.

It also was time for Cleveland to find out if Bo Naylor has what it takes to be a big league catcher. He was the team’s first-round pick in 2018.

Naylor has what amounts to a full season of Class AAA experience. He appeared in 126 games at Columbus, dating back to last season. In 560 plate appearances, he batted .255 (.885 OPS) with 28 HR and 95 RBI. He threw out 30% of stealing base runners for his minor league career. He’s at 17% this season.

The MLB average for throwing out baserunners is 21% this season.

You can argue that Naylor is only 23 and can use more time in the minors. I hear he has some trouble blocking balls in the dirt, but Zunino was dismal in that area. Naylor was called for a catcher’s interference in Tuesday’s game. Patience will be required.

We don’t know what kind of catcher Naylor will be, at least in 2023. Most of the time, being a rookie catcher is perhaps the most challenging position. But we do know Cleveland has Sandy Alomar Jr. as its catching coach, and he’s a tremendous teacher. Backup catcher Cam Gallagher is superb defensively.

They can work with Naylor, who is hard-wired to improve. The Canadian native even learned Spanish to help communicate with the Latino pitchers.

WILL HE HIT?

As a hitter, Naylor has a big swing out of an open stance. It’s somewhat like his brother and Cleveland teammate, Josh Naylor. Big brother Josh is an emerging star, he entered Tuesday night fifth in the American League with 53 RBI. It took Josh a few years to develop as a hitter at the MLB level. He turns 27 on Thursday.

It’s not fair to expect a lot of offense from Bo this season. His is 0 for 9 in Cleveland with four strikeouts. Promoting Bo Naylor gives the team a chance to have an immediate upgrade at the catching position while grooming Naylor to own the job for several years.
In 2021, Bo Naylor batted only .188 (.612 OPS) with 10 HR in a full season at Class AA Akron. He returned to Akron in 2022, batted .271 (.898 OPS) in 52 games and earned a promotion to Class AAA.

A lefty hitter like his brother, Bo Naylor batted .315 vs. righties and .221 vs. lefties in the minors since the start of 2022 season.

Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and the Guardians’ compelling trade deadline CLEVELAND, OH - JUNE 06: Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57) delivers a pitch to the plate during the first inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians on June 6, 2023, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel and Jason Lloyd
4h ago


CLEVELAND — Gavin Williams adjusted his cap, kicked the mound, exhaled deeply and fired his first of many fastballs in a Guardians uniform Wednesday night. It began another era of promise and hope for another huge arm in this organization and one of the top prospects in the sport. Williams’ debut follows those of Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee and signals yet another evolution of a Cleveland starting rotation that has been among baseball’s best for decades.

But Williams’ arrival comes with a deep cost attached. It wasn’t long ago when Triston McKenzie was that blooming prospect. Now his aching right elbow has perhaps left this club with another difficult decision to make regarding Shane Bieber. Three homegrown pitchers, all stitched intricately together within an organization that often resides in the nuance, where every decision comes with an opportunity cost.

Jason Lloyd: Zack, as the Guardians continue to battle just to get back to .500, difficult decisions loom this summer. What to do with Bieber remains the most prominent. I’m of the belief McKenzie’s injury and even the potential for season-ending surgery at some point should not impact their decision on Bieber.

If they were resigned to maximizing Bieber’s value before McKenzie’s injury, leveraging a market desperate for starters and dealing him at the Aug. 1 trade deadline, then that should still be the plan. Ultimately, I still believe it’s the best path forward for an organization that at least this season does not look capable of winning the American League and playing for a World Series.
Triston McKenzie made two starts before heading back to the injured list. (Bruce Kluckhohn / USA Today)

Zack Meisel: There’s a lot to unpack here. Let’s first rewind for a moment.

Shane Bieber rents in Cleveland (from Joe Thomas, actually). He doesn’t buy. He isn’t going to be here beyond 2024, his final season of team control. And, far more likely than not, he’ll reside elsewhere next spring. So, odds are, the Guardians will trade him this summer or this winter.

They can probably fetch more for him this summer because he’ll offer the acquiring team two potential postseason runs instead of one. And, sure, an offseason trade could attract bidders who aren’t interested at the moment. But it’s not like there are only a handful of contenders seeking a starting pitcher in the next six weeks. Entering Wednesday, only five teams in the league were more than six games out of a playoff spot (and one of those five, the Cardinals, seemed like a perfect match for a Bieber trade before their sputtering persisted into June).

So, you can bet the Guardians will at least listen to offers. But, Jason, you wanted to discuss whether they should do more than that.

And here’s my answer.

(drum roll)

Ask me in a month.

Look, the AL Central is both generous and deceiving. The Guardians certainly have the horsepower to defend their division crown. That certainly isn’t saying much this year. Winning the division and hoping and praying they get hot at the right time can’t be the prevailing strategy.

The question is, can they resemble a much different, more imposing team in September than they were in April and May? Can they boost their chances so they could, in fact, get hot at the right time? Forget about their eventual win total; it probably won’t be pretty and won’t prevent people from poking fun at the AL Central. Are there steps Cleveland can take to seem like a formidable October opponent?

I’m not sure yet. Maybe Williams and Bo Naylor inject some life into the club. Maybe Bibee and Allen sidestep complications from their eventual innings caps. Maybe George Valera eats into some of Myles Straw’s playing time and provides some sorely needed thump. Maybe they get good news on McKenzie.

And maybe the front office chooses a different route to addressing whatever needs this club has in late July. Trading Bieber isn’t the only way to obtain an outfielder, after all. The Guardians could finally deal away some prospects, something they’ve neglected to do for a couple of years.
Gavin Williams adjusts his cap before throwing the first pitch of his major-league debut. (David Richard / USA Today)

Lloyd: I’m all for unclogging a few roster spots with a prospects type of “buyers” deal that has nothing to do with Bieber and nets someone who can consistently hit the ball into the bleachers. I also look at recent history and all indications are that Bieber won’t be here for Thomas’ Pro Football Hall of Fame enshrinement in August.

Cleveland traded Trevor Bauer at the deadline in 2019 when they were 19 games over .500 and three back of the division-leading Twins. They traded Mike Clevinger at the deadline in 2020 when they were 21-13 and tied with the White Sox for the division lead during the pandemic-shortened season. Bauer and Clevinger, like Bieber now, had two postseasons of control remaining when they were dealt.

Admittedly, there were extenuating circumstances with both — Bauer’s mood and personality had worn thin with a number of teammates and Clevinger missing curfew during the rigid COVID-19 restrictions seemed to break a lot of trust within the organization. Bieber has none of those red flags. Nevertheless, the organization is tasked with removing emotion and making decisions rooted in the best interest of its long-term health. Maximizing the return of its biggest trade asset falls into that category.

Bieber doesn’t hold the same value he had, say, two years ago, but the overwhelming demand for pitching and the fact he could be the best starter available should recoup some of that value lost to his diminished velocity and underwhelming metrics. The return simply won’t be as bountiful if the Guardians wait until December to move him. The time is now, whether they have a healthy McKenzie or not.
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Father's Day letters: Triston McKenzie and his dad celebrate a bond forged through baseball

Meisel: I think their history tells us they should and will entertain offers, but so much of whether they’ll actually move him hinges on what they can get in return. They set their price and they don’t budge.

I’m just not in a rush to make any declarations about what to do with him, especially without knowing what teams will offer. There’s an array of new contenders across the league this year. How aggressive will the Orioles be at the deadline? How will the Rangers and Angels and Diamondbacks and Reds operate? Will one of those teams flip Cleveland a young, offensively capable, major-league-ready outfielder?

And what do all of these teams think about Bieber? Do any of them believe in his stuff enough to want to sign him beyond his year and a half of control?

There are about six weeks remaining until the trade deadline, and the Guardians ought to use every bit of that time to make as informed of a decision as possible. If they were, say, 45-28, would you still be set on trading him next month?

Lloyd: This feels like a trick question, but as looney tunes as it may sound, yes. That’s how the club operated previously and it worked. I’ll refer back to the Bauer deal, when the team was 19 games over .500 and three games back in the division and dealt him anyway. Now the devil’s advocate approach to that is, “What did they get in return for Bauer?” It was one of the few trades this regime has made that was a bust. But did they really miss Bauer after he was gone? I’d argue no.

We’ve seen enough from Bibee and Allen to believe they’re legit. Williams was banged around in his debut Wednesday, allowing four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the A’s, but he has the next six weeks to show he’s ready, too. I don’t have the proper algorithm for this, but that pitching trio alongside Aaron Civale and Cal Quantrill for the rest of this season, combined with the reality that the Guardians are not actually 17 games over .500, tells me the added value Bieber commands with the extra year of postseason control is more valuable to the long-term health of the franchise than what he provides — basically pitching like a No. 2 starter — on a team with a losing record.

Meisel: … as long as they get a haul. Or something close to a haul. A freight? A load? A harvest?

The Guardians still need to simplify their middle-infield logjam. It would seem prudent to swap a shortstop or two for an outfielder or a pitcher.

That’s what makes them such an interesting case study this summer. They always blur the lines between buyer and seller, but perhaps never more so than next month, when they could conceivably trade their ace and also survey the market for immediate upgrades.

Lloyd: Now I’ll talk myself out of my own argument. Here’s the reason not to trade Bieber just yet: They already don’t have enough room on their 40-man roster. How are you going to trade your best pitcher for three to four more players who need to be protected? It’s what makes everything with this team so complicated.

Meisel: You say complicated. I say compelling.

Guardians release catcher with four seasons of 20-plus homers

Story by Anthony Franco, MLB Trade Rumors • 1h ago


The Cleveland Guardians have released Mike Zunino, according to the catcher’s transaction log at MLB.com. That always seemed the likely outcome once Cleveland designated him for assignment last Friday.

Zunino signed a $6M free-agent contract over the winter. A little over half that salary remains to be paid out, making it a lock he goes unclaimed on release waivers. Once that process plays out, he will become a free agent. At that point, other teams could add him for the prorated portion of the $720K league minimum while leaving the Guardians on the hook for the rest of the money.

Cleveland bought low on the veteran backstop after his 2022 season was ruined by thoracic outlet syndrome. It didn’t pan out, as the 32-year-old struggled on both sides of the ball during the season. He hit .177/.271/.306 with only three home runs in 140 trips to the plate. Zunino annually runs one of the sport’s highest strikeout rates, but this season’s 43.6 percent clip would be a career-high in a 162-game schedule.

Zunino has generally been a solid defensive catcher in his career. He had well below-average marks with the glove in Cleveland, however, allowing a league-high five passed balls while throwing out 16.7 percent of attempted basestealers (a few points below the 20.6 percent league average). Defensive Runs Saved pegged Zunino as nine runs below average, tying for second-worst at the position.


Without much production on either side of the ball, Cleveland went in a different direction. The Guardians called up top prospect Bo Naylor on the heels of a .253/.393/.498 showing through 270 plate appearances with Triple-A Columbus. He is the team's new starting backstop, with Cam Gallagher and David Fry on hand as reserve options.

Guardians slugger Josh Naylor’s process — and patience — pays off


By Zack Meisel
4h ago
CLEVELAND — Josh Naylor doesn’t bury his face in packets of hitting data. He doesn’t scour analytical sites for encouraging metrics.

He knew he was consistently hitting the ball with authority. He knew he wasn’t being rewarded for doing so. And he knows, sometimes, that’s just how baseball works. It can be cruel, unforgiving, nonsensical.

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Naylor’s numbers were an eyesore in mid-May, a six-week sample full of frustration and poor fortune. Metrics suggested there was nothing wrong with his process, but that’s not always easy for a hitter to accept.

“You can only say it so many times,” Guardians hitting coach Chris Valaika said. “‘Keep hitting it hard.’ ‘Good swing.’ It’s a results-based game. Guys want hits. They want to look up and see positive numbers.”

Hitters in such a quandary are inclined to tinker and overthink and overanalyze. It’s human nature to strap a couple of boulders of pressure to one’s shoulders in a bid to reverse the mojo.

But, as is often the case, Naylor’s patience was rewarded in time. He’s still smacking the baseball across the diamond, and he’s no longer making loud outs.

Over the past six weeks, he has posted a .381/.416/.595 slash line, the ideal protection lurking behind José Ramírez in manager Terry Francona’s batting order. Naylor has three four-hit games — the only three of his career in the regular season — since May 31. He has as many multi-hit games as he has strikeouts (11) in the past three weeks.

“He did a great job keeping his head level and staying the course to allow those things to turn,” Valaika said, “rather than trying to intervene and make changes. Who knows what that would have looked like?”

Shortly after the Guardians hired Valaika as hitting coach two years ago, MLB initiated a lockout, and Valaika was limited to poring over video of the players with whom he would eventually partner. Two traits stood out to him about Naylor: his contact ability and his power. Those attributes can be an imposing combination, creating a hitter who can deposit a pitch into the outfield seats, but without leaning on an all-or-nothing approach.

The key for Naylor is to neglect pitches out of the zone. He annually runs a high chase rate, and since he makes so much contact, those pitches can cause him trouble. Valaika said he has been pleased with Naylor’s decision-making this season.


There are instances when he’s tempted by a high fastball — Francona pointed to a game in Arizona last weekend when those pitches proved irresistible — but Naylor hasn’t been fooled by off-speed pitches out of the zone, which makes him an irritating matchup for pitchers. Naylor has produced the best numbers of his career against breaking pitches this season, and this month, he has registered a .444 average and .722 slugging percentage against them. That’s in addition to his customarily sterling stats against fastballs.

“The contact isn’t going anywhere. The power is going to keep coming up,” Valaika said. “He’s starting to be one of those guys in the lineup that teams are circling. ‘Don’t let him beat you.’”

That’ll make plate discipline even more imperative. Working walks is always welcomed, but for Naylor, it’s about setting himself up in counts in which a pitcher is forced to cave to his demands and throw him a fastball over the plate. That’s a skill that Ramírez, for example, has mastered.

“As well as (Naylor) has done,” Francona said, … “I don’t think he’s reached what he’s going to do, because he’s still figuring out who he is.”


Josh Naylor hits a three-run home run against the Mets in May. (Brad Penner / USA Today)
Naylor said the flight of the baseball after it collides with his bat tells him “everything with my swing.” He knew he was making a sufficient amount of hard contact in April and May, but he felt he was producing too much topspin and hitting too many groundballs. He also continued to scuffle against lefties, as he started the season hitless in his first 17 at-bats against them.

Naylor and the club’s hitting group collaborated over the winter on his approach against southpaws, working on facing different release points and angles, picking up spin and understanding what sort of swing to unleash against different pitches. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to matter if the pitcher throws with his left hand, right hand, a foot or he delivers the ball to the plate via drone. Naylor is locked in.


Underlying metrics suggested he was the unluckiest hitter in the sport during the first six weeks of the season. Now, neither poor fortune nor lefties can stand in his way. Since that 0-for-17 start, Naylor is 13-for-46 (.283 average) against lefties. Over the past month, Naylor ranks 10th in the majors in OPS and ninth in wRC+, and he has a far lower strikeout rate than everyone ranked ahead of him.

He’s hitting the ball hard more frequently than he ever has (and with a career-best average exit velocity). He’s running a near-elite strikeout rate. And the quality of his contact places him in the 98th percentile in expected batting average and in the 88th percentile in expected slugging percentage.

In other words, that combination of contact and muscle is fueling one of the more threatening hitters in the league. It just took time for the results to reflect the healthy swings he was uncorking.

“It’s just baseball,” Naylor said. “Some days are yours. Some days aren’t. You just have to roll with the punches and continue to play hard. If you do that, if you prepare well, you keep practicing hard, you never give up on yourself, I think you’ll be fine in the end.”

Gavin Williams, Guardians
It was only one start in the major leagues, but we also have some data from the minor leagues, and they generally tell the same story about good old number one: Williams has an excellent, excellent fastball.

He gets good ride on a ton of velo, with just enough side-to-side wiggle to make it stand out. Only Taj Bradley, Bobby Miller, and Tyler Glasnow had better four-seam Stuff+ in the minors. It’s a great fastball.

Where the major- and minor-league numbers diverge is on the breaking balls. In the minors, they registered as average-ish, but in his first start in the majors, Stuff+ didn’t like them. One start is pretty aggressive for any stat, even one that is supposed to be good in small samples, so let’s call those breaking balls TBD for now. At 84.5 with gyro-slider/bullet-slider movement, the slider could be better if it was harder but doesn’t leap off the page as terrible, and nobody has hit it yet.

Friday, June 23, 2023

Thoughts for a Friday - Welcome to Summer Version

Currently Baseball Reference.com has Cleveland with a 34.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.2% chance of winning the World Series. In comparison, due to strength of schedule left to play, Minnesota, 1 game ahead of Cleveland in the standingss, has a 62.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.4% chance of winning the World Series. So, when I see Francona playing the same guys night in and night, even against the A's, it tells me he, and the rest of management, is pretty desperate about winning games right now so they can make a determination about whether they are buyers or sellers at the deadline. This has led to one pinch running assignment for Tyler Freeman and one AB in two appearances for Fry in a series against the least effective team in baseball. I don't expect that to change much but it would be nice if Fry was the firstbaseman instead of Naylor tonight with Bell DHing and Freeman started at second base for Gimenez with us facing a tough lefty in Wade Miley. I doubt that we see both those moves as Francona loves his veterans and damn the matchups or sitting a guy who isn't producing or any fear that he could burn these guys out now. We are already saddled with Arias in RF right now because Francona won't give Fry a chance out there and Freeman was, truth be told, never trained in the outfield as was promised (NOTE: Shagging balls in batting practice is NOT training).

Watching Arias reminds me of watching myself in little league. While I was a decent athlete and outfielder, given my inability to hit anything faster than a slow pitch softball, I was a 3 true outcome guy in little league: strikeout, walk, HBP.

People think the next month is important as it will determine whther we are buyers or sellers at the deadline. While true, this period is turning out to be very important for our farm system, as well. As I have pointed out before our farm system is falling apart with multiple prospects in the teens of our top 30 having miserable seasons. In fact, except for Juan Brito, I can't think of even one guy in the entire system who is having a breakout year. So as we get into warmer weather throughout the country I hope to see some better performances out of these guys although I don't really believe it is going to happen. When you look at Nikhazy's start last night it is apparent to me that Mace, Cantillo and Nikhazy are not top level prospects and maybe should be in the late teens or early 20s at this point...and they are the best of the lot right now.

Thanks to Cleveland Guardians Prospective for the video of Chase DeLauter's first professional HR last night. That is encouraging but I couldn't help but think of Kirk Gibson's 1988 WS HR off of Dennis Eckersley as I watched DeLauter circle the bases. It looked to me like that was as fast as DeLauter could, or would allow himself, to move. So what we saw last night might be bittersweet unless he was really just basking in the moment and taking the low and slow jog around the bases to commenerate a milestone moment in his life.

Gotta love an article that is titled "A Buy Low Trade Offer to the Guardians for Shane Beiber" written by a guy in NY. In this 'offer' the Mets give us their #17 and #25 prospects in a weak system and a failed prospect in Mark Vientos. Besides being comical because the Mets should be sellers at the deadline, looking at the likely trajectory of their season as well as the comical return, this article does show one thing through analytics: people throughout the country are seeing that Beiber, while he is OUR ace, is likely not even the 2nd best starter on a true contender, being mostly a downside 2 or and upside 3 starter on those teams. He simply is not dominant any more and it is far from a secret throughout baseball.

MLB Pipeline's Jonathon Mayo just dropped his most recent mock draft. I had to laugh (and cry) at the same time. In the 39 picks before the start of the second round, the lowest ranked prospect selected was Joe Whitman (46) by the Ahtletics at slot 39. THAT IS IF YOU DON'T COUNT HIS PROJECTION FOR THE GUARDIANS FIRST ROUND SELECTION! With that pick Mayo predicts the Guardians will draft light hitting HS SS Sammy Stafura, the #86 prospect in the draft. It is rather revealing that Mayo would apparently have such little respect for Scott Barnsby that he would think the Guardians would be the only team who drafts a lowly rated prospect in the first round. However, looking at the 2022 draft results from the Guardians I can see how he might think that Barnsby would be stupid enough to draft THAT HS shortstop when someone like Ohio-born Colt Emerson, not to mention Eldridge, Lombard Jr. and McGonigle would have been in play at that point, according to Mayo's projected selections. I hope I am wrong but it is really weird that this is the only questionable pick, based on slot and ranking, that he would see happening in the first round. Could be total conjecture by Mayo and total coincidence based on Barnsby's botched 2022 draft, but, generally, where there is smoke there is fire. Quick, someone run for the firs extinguisher.

As a followup to the previous bullet, Joe Lampe's monthly BAs are .348, .181 and, in June, .103 with OPS of .908, .618, .404. Nate Furman is hitting .177 in Lake County after his promotion and 22 year old Guy Lipscomb is hitting .217 in June...at Low A. I know injuries are classic draft confounders so Campbell, DeLauter, DeLucia and Zibin being out is, likely, just bad luck. But with Parker Messick STILL at low A and not dominating even the way Will Dion did last year with similar stuff and a much lower pedigree, the 2023 draft is soooo important...as well as the next month will be for some of these guys to determine their true prospect status which, right now, is more like suspect or organizational player than prospect.

Go Guardians!

Dennis at 10:15 AM

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Guardians’ mad dashes on the bases have disappeared despite favorable MLB rule changes Jun 25, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians center fielder Myles Straw (7) is caught stealing by Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Andruw Monasterio (14) during the eighth inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
3h ago

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CLEVELAND — The Guardians were supposed to be the poster children for MLB’s new rules.

The youngest roster in the league had plenty of recent experience with the rule changes in the minors. The young pitchers could handle the pace of the pitch clock. The batch of contact hitters could find holes in the shift-restricted defense. And, above all, the organization that preaches aggressive base running from a player’s first day as a professional would benefit from bigger bases and pickoff limits.

Initially, that happened. The Guardians swiped a bunch of bases in the early going this season. But over time, as the offense finally emerged from a two-month slumber, they stopped running. The mad dashing that followed their slashing all but disappeared.

Stolen bases, by month

April: 35 in 42 attempts (second in the league)
May: 13 in 16 attempts (tied for 26th)
June: 9 in 17 attempts (tied for 23rd; the Reds lead the league with an absurd 44 steals in June)

Manager Terry Francona has suggested teams are zeroing in on Cleveland’s running game because they know how bold the Guardians want to be. He said they’ve noticed pitchers’ motions to the plate are quicker against them than against other opponents, and he implored hitters to capitalize on instances in which that approach results in a pitcher leaving a pitch where he hadn’t intended.

Stolen base totals aren’t the end-all, be-all. The majority of hitters in Cleveland’s order still default to thinking double or triple anytime they hit a ball toward an outfield gap.

For this team to squeeze as much production as possible out of such a power-deprived lineup, however, the Guardians need to be fast and furious on the bases.

It’s a mindset they encourage at their complexes in the Dominican Republic and in Arizona. Coaches and coordinators hold classroom sessions in which they study videos that show examples of blunders and base running, and dissect the thought process required to avoid outs and gain the extra 90 feet. They attempt to replicate an array of situations on the field, based on outfielder arm strength and alignment, score and stage of the game, identity of the hitter and other factors.

As players navigate their way through the farm system, they’re implored to adopt an unrelenting-yet-intelligent approach on the bases. In the minors, mistakes that result in outs are teaching tools.

The bottom line, which Francona stresses each spring: They want teams to play at their speed. Nothing spreads a jolt of adrenaline through the Guardians’ dugout like a player advancing from first to third on a bloop single, or moving up a base on a throw to a different base. Or, when José Ramírez pulls off one of his patented scampers that leaves the defense in a daze, a crash course in being alert, with his helmet crashing to the dirt.
José Ramírez slides safely into third base earlier this month. (David Richard / USA Today)

At every level, Guardians coaches emphasize that any player can embrace this opportunistic mindset, not just those blessed with speed. Mike Napoli is often cited as an opportunistic runner. Josh Naylor has 11 steals in 13 chances since the start of last season. Ramírez has solid, unspectacular speed, but annually ranks among the league’s most prolific base runners.

“José does it the best of anybody,” said J.T. Maguire, the Guardians’ outfield coach, who previously worked as the organization’s base running coordinator. “Our video library is full of him.”

In the club’s season-opening series in Seattle, Ramírez reached on a double. When Josh Bell hit a chopper to the third baseman, Ramírez began to retreat to the bag. Eugenio Suárez glanced at him to ensure he wasn’t getting any ideas and then threw to first to retire Bell. But Ramírez realized he could outrun Suárez to third base. Suárez realized it, too, after Ramírez bolted toward the bag. He’s always one step ahead.

“José has a way of seeing what’s happening,” Francona said, “but he also sees what could happen.”

Last year, the base-running bug was contagious. The Guardians ran amok. It became their identity. It left the White Sox and other foes reeling.

The Guardians ran first-to-third more often than any other club. They ran to second on should-be singles. They ran home on any pitch that trickled away from the catcher. And then they ran away from their competition in the AL Central.

“We value base running,” Maguire said. “We don’t rely on the three-run home run. We rely on putting pressure on teams and making teams play at our pace. If there’s a slight crack, we try to expose that.”

Confidence plays a leading role. It’s a common talking point among coaches. They’ve urged Myles Straw, for example, to return to his assertive ways. Straw has 10 stolen bases, but none since May 18, and only two since April. He pinch ran for Tyler Freeman in a key spot in the eighth inning Sunday against the Brewers and initially stole second, but the play was wiped out when Gabriel Arias was called for interfering with the catcher. On a later attempt, Straw was thrown out. For what it’s worth, Freeman had scurried from first to third on a wild pitch earlier in the game, the sort of play the organization holds in highest regard. (Straw owns the league’s best rating on the basepaths since the start of last season, per FanGraphs’ base-running metric, but he also totes the league’s lowest wRC+ since the start of last season — his 67 wRC+ is 10 percent worse than the second-worst hitter — and he made the final out at the plate in the 10th inning Sunday.)

“It’s why in spring training,” Francona said, “we try to get guys to go first-to-third, even if they get thrown out, because when they go, all of a sudden, they get there and they’re like, ‘Oh, I can do that.’ I think confidence plays a huge role in everything.”

Circumstances do, too. The Guardians are careful not to run into outs with Ramírez and Naylor, their two primary sources of offense, lurking near the batter’s box.

The Guardians rank just below average in extra-base-taken percentage (41 percent versus 43 percent). They’re tied for 15th in FanGraphs’ overall base-running metric and tied for 15th in stolen bases. Last year, they ranked third in the majors in stolen bases and stolen base success rate.

They need their feet to fuel their offense.

“We’re always trying to be opportunistic,” Maguire said.

Speaking of base running, a quick aside …

Rajai Davis stole 415 bases during his big-league career, including 64 in his two seasons with Cleveland. He remembers exactly how many he swiped in 2016 — 43 in 49 attempts — when he said he had it down to a science. Even though he was 35 years old, he knew exactly when to run and which pitcher-catcher combinations to target.

Davis, now working as a senior director of on-field operations for MLB, has wondered how he might have fared if the league’s new rules had been implemented during his career. With the advent of the pitch clock and the restriction on pickoff attempts, he noted how much pressure is on pitchers to hold runners. Davis topped out at 50 stolen bases in 2010, though he eclipsed the 40-steals mark on five occasions and the 20-steals mark 11 times, despite not always being an everyday player.

Could he have stolen 75 or 80 bases in a season with these rules?

“With my eyes closed,” Davis said, laughing, before surmising that Rickey Henderson could steal 200 in a season. Henderson maxed out at 130 stolen bases, in 1982. He led the league in steals 12 times.

Power hitter goes 5 for 5 and hits for the cycle at Class AAA Columbus

Updated: Jun. 26, 2023, 10:56 a.m.|Published: Jun. 26, 2023, 10:35 a.m.

By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio --

The Guardians have been waiting for a sign from Oscar Gonzalez.

Is he going to swing at pitches that he can handle in the strike zone? Can he stop chasing pitches out of the strike zone? Is he going to be more disciplined at the plate?

Well, Gonzalez sent them a sign they couldn’t miss Sunday afternoon from Class AAA Columbus. The missing power-component to Cleveland’s offense, went 5 for 5 and hit for the cycle as the Clippers beat Indianapolis, 7-6.

Gonzalez’s cycle unfolded this way -- double, triple, single, single, home run.

The cycle comes at an interesting time for Cleveland.

The Guardians right field platoon of Will Brennan and Gabriel Arias could use some help. Brennan is just back in the lineup after injuring his left arm and shoulder making a diving catch on Tuesday against Oakland.

Meanwhile Arias, the right-handed part of the platoon, has been struggling at the plate. He went 0 for 4 in Sunday’s 5-4 loss to Milwaukee and is hitting .170 (10 for 59) since May 23.

Arias, a shortstop by trade, has one minor league option left.

Gonzalez opened the season with the Guardians, but he was optioned to Columbus in early May after hitting .192 (14 for 73) with one homer, five RBI and 5 strikeouts.

Last season Gonzalez arrived from Columbus on May 25 and had an instant impact of the Cleveland’s stuck-in-the-mud offense. In 91 games, the right-handed hitting Gonzalez batted .296 (107 for 362), but more importantly he added power. Gonzalez hit 27 doubles and 11 homers, while driving in 43 runs.

In the process, he took over right field.

In the postseason his homer in the 15th inning against Tampa Bay won the wild card series and sent the Guardians to the ALDS. He beat the Yankees in Game 4 of the ALDS with a two-run single in the ninth.

But he didn’t last long in the big leagues this season.

Said hitting coach Chris Valaika earlier this month, “There were a lot of guys who got pitched to differently (this year). Guys have their name circled in the lineup by the opposition -- don’t let this guy beat you. They have to continue to grow and evolve and make those adjustments.

“We saw it with Oscar Gonzalez, who struggled to make those adjustments. Now he’s back in Triple-A trying to work on those things. . .We saw the aggressive nature of his approach. I think he just got exposed this year.

“I think for him to go to Triple-A to make those adjustments, and have the freedom to work on those things instead of being in the big leagues where production matters every day, is going to be good for him. Hopefully we get the best version of him when he comes back.”

Gonzalez is hitting .269 (45 for 171) with 12 doubles, two triples, six homers and 36 RBI at Columbus. He has 43 strikeouts, eight walks and a .299 onbase percentage. His slugging percentage is .468.

He’s hitting .306 (26 for 85) in June and .368 (14 for 38) against lefties for the season. Arias is hitting .148 (5 for 54) against lefties.

The Guardians, meanwhile, are still last in the big leagues in home runs.

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The making of Gavin Williams, the Cleveland Guardians’ latest pitching development triumph Jun 21, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams (63) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel


The scouting report on Seth Brown was simple.

“A guy who eats fastballs,” said Pete Loizzo, an analyst in the Guardians’ front office, about the A’s slugger, who owns a career .528 slugging percentage against heaters.

Gavin Williams tossed Brown a curveball. Then a changeup, and another changeup. He retired Brown on three pitches.

And there was Loizzo, sitting behind home plate, watching in awe the rookie he helped wrangle into the organization. Ben Johnson, the Guardians’ assistant director of pitching development, texted Loizzo to ask if he was occupying the team’s scouting seats for Williams’ much-anticipated debut last Wednesday.

“You bet your ass I am,” Loizzo replied. He had been waiting two years for that evening, for a top draft pick and top prospect to reach the top.

Williams’ ascent through the system was quick. His hype has been immense, as he ranks No. 13 on MLB Pipeline’s latest top prospect ranking.

If he realizes his potential, the Guardians could have their next ace: a 6-foot-6, soft-spoken, hard-throwing Carolina kid who possesses what rotation mate Tanner Bibee describes as “one of the more unreal fastballs I’ve ever seen.”

“If he’s attacking the zone,” Bibee said, “he’s really hard to beat.”

The first time Loizzo watched Williams pitch, a midweek game between East Carolina and Elon in late February 2019, he actually planned to devote more time to eyeing a handful of hitters on both sides. Williams already carried the reputation of a future early-round selection, and after he showcased his arsenal for five innings, Loizzo light-heartedly said to a Cleveland scouting intern: “This guy’s going to be OK. He’s got a shot.”

“The stuff was impressive as hell,” said Loizzo, who scouted the Carolinas, Virginia and eastern Tennessee at the time. “You’re immediately going to have him in somewhat of rarified air on your list just because of the stuff quality.”

Williams bullied college hitters with his fastball, and he threw a softer version of his north-to-south, looping curveball. Cleveland’s scouting contingent liked that a pitcher with his mammoth frame could maintain his fastball velocity deep into a start.

“I think he came out of the womb at six feet,” Loizzo quipped.

There were questions about Williams’ command, but the more he pitched, the better he performed. His final season at East Carolina, he took on a far greater workload than he ever had, but his strikeout rate soared, he chopped his walk rate in half and he rarely allowed a harmful hit.

The Guardians, who wound up drafting Williams with the 23rd pick in 2021, identified a few tweaks they thought could position him as one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the sport.

First, they added a touch of horsepower to his curveball. Second, they encouraged him to throw more high fastballs; he has sufficient ride on the pitch, so if he threw it up in the zone, he could miss more bats. Third, there were some inefficiencies in his lower-half movement early in his delivery. They cleaned that up to help him unlock more consistent command.

Finally, the adjustment that created the most homework and required the most time and energy: They helped to reinvent Williams’ slider, equipping the pitch with more cut and more oomph.

“It wasn’t in a great place,” Loizzo said.

“It was terrible,” Williams clarified.

Loizzo has since shifted to an analyst role in which he works on pitch design, assesses the pitchers who pass through High-A Lake County and collaborates with other departments on player development plans. To pinpoint the optimal grip and approach for the slider, Loizzo partnered with Williams, pitching coordinator Caleb Longshore and analyst Will Huntington, whom Loizzo said “spent an associate’s degree worth of time working on what Gavin’s slider could be.”

“This year,” Williams said, “we finally figured out what works best. I think it’s right where it needs to be.”

Williams’ delivery is eerily reminiscent of Gerrit Cole’s motion, and the Guardians actually compared the two pitchers in terms of size when evaluating Williams’ frame during the draft process. They’re careful about placing such expectations on him, but the two undoubtedly share a resemblance. Bibee, a fellow 2021 draft pick who rose through the Guardians’ system alongside Williams, can’t help but notice the similarities.

“(Williams’ delivery) is super stock. Gerrit Cole’s is super stock, too,” Bibee said. “It’s quiet, quiet, quiet. And then he hits a point in his delivery and it’s just, BOOM, down the mound, and it’s just, like, ‘100 (mph).’ It’s electric.”

Williams’ repertoire is full of swing-and-miss options, but the slider completed the package. The Guardians pushed him to lean on his secondary pitches in the minors this season, to resist the temptation to settle for blowing one 98 mph fastball after another past overmatched hitters. He limited opponents to a .173 average and .297 slugging percentage while tallying 85 strikeouts in 60 innings.

“Everything plays off the fastball,” Williams said, “but I knew I needed more pitches just to be able to get guys off certain pitches.”

In spring training, Williams and Bibee routinely attracted observers to the back fields from every department in the Guardians front office and every coaching level in the system. The two consensus top-100 prospects created friendly competitions centered on goals such as who could throw the most first-pitch breaking balls for strikes.

That explains why it meant a little more to Loizzo as he watched Williams drop in a 78 mph curveball for a called strike to start that first battle with Brown last week.

“For him to execute that,” Loizzo said, “there are a lot of people who had a hand in him doing that, because I don’t know if he would have been able to do that coming out of college. Little, micro things end up meaning a lot because you know somebody sacrificed a lot of time. It’s cool to see the effort pay off.”

Of course Williams came out of college pretty well hyped already unlike Bieber and Bibee.
and has had only one major league start
But every reason to expect very good things from him

The Guardians pushed him to lean on his secondary pitches in the minors this season, to resist the temptation to settle for blowing one 98 mph fastball after another past overmatched hitters.

Love this. Another example of minor league numbers and how they can be misleading. Here's a guy who could have had better numbers if he had simply stuck to what he was good at - but the brass wanted him to use what he was NOT good at.