As Guardians’ offensive funk lingers, no hitter is immune and the questions mount
Cleveland Guardians' Amed Rosario reacts after striking out during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Wednesday, May 10, 2023, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)
By Zack Meisel
May 10, 2023
CLEVELAND — Imagine waking up, downing a bowl of Cocoa Krispies, driving your Lexus to Progressive Field, stepping into the batter’s box and locking eyes with Randy Johnson.
Every single game, it’s Randy Johnson and his menacing glare, his long hair, his violent, left-handed motion and his lethal fastball/slider combination. After an 0-for-4 showing, there’s another date with Randy Johnson the next day.
The Guardians, through 37 games, have mustered a team slash line of .221/.297/.325.
Randy Johnson, during his 22-year career, held hitters to a slash line of .221/.297/.353.
In other words, to this point, the Guardians have made every pitcher they’ve faced resemble a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
There’s a lot to cover on the state of the Guardians’ offense.
The Guardians’ bats have been absent far too frequently. (Joe Nicholson / USA Today)
Let’s begin with a transcript of a group postgame interview session with Guardians hitting coach Chris Valaika following Wednesday’s 5-0 loss to Detroit. (Full transparency: Interviews with a Cleveland hitting coach after a game are pretty rare. The Athletic asked if Valaika could be made available, as it can be difficult to interview coaches before games, especially prior to a day game, with the way the schedule is structured. Questions have been edited for clarity.)
How do you remedy what’s going on with the offense when it’s a collective struggle?
Yeah, you know, the other team gets paid, too. We’ve run into some good arms. We’re going to keep grinding away, competing with these guys. It hasn’t been good. We can’t keep making excuses, like, ‘We had the same record last year,’ things like that. I think there are different expectations, not just internally, but externally, that we have to live up to. We’re going to keep competing. It’s a long season. Weather the storm right now.
Anything in particular about lefties that has been difficult?
I think we heard that same narrative last year. We have a lefty-heavy lineup. Teams know that. Teams are coming at us with lefties. We see different bullpens with lefties, so it’s something we’re going to have to make an adjustment to, but, keep competing. It’s still early.
Are guys pressing too much?
Yeah, I think there’s definitely a component of that. As youthful as we were last year, having 500 to 600 at-bats in the big leagues doesn’t make you a veteran right away. So we’re taking some of those lumps and having to make adjustments on the fly. I think this is, in the long run, going to be a good thing for us. We’re going to learn from it and be able to come out the other side.
We’ve heard the message from players and the manager about not panicking. What’s the balance between not overreacting, but realizing this stretch is elongated?
It is what it is. We’re not going to dig our head in the sand with those things. Internally, we’re going to keep going about our business the same way and stay consistent with our messaging. Nothing has changed from last year to this year, other than some early results. We’re going to keep competing. I know the results haven’t necessarily been here, but if we stay positive with these guys, stay consistent with that, I believe in them and we’re going to come out the other end.
(Note: There was more to ask, but a team staffer ended the interview after the fourth question.)
Kudos to Valaika for answering questions and for noting the team can’t make excuses by referencing its slow start last year, as if a flip of a metaphorical summer switch will cure Josh Naylor’s ineffectiveness against lefties or Amed Rosario’s propensity to ground into double plays. You could throw the weather excuse in there, too. Enough with the “when the weather warms up …” shtick. It’s been just as cold for the opponents. It was teeth-chattering cold in Seattle (the ballpark has a roof, but is an open-air environment) and Oakland for the first week of the season, when the Guardians went 5-2. It was brisk, but not frigid, in New York last week, when Willie Calhoun and Jake Bauers went deep for the Yankees but the Guardians acted allergic to extra-base hits.
The Guardians have scored 19 runs in their last 10 games. They have scored 52 runs in their last 21 games.
They have scored three runs or fewer in 24 of their 37 games (65 percent). They’re 6-18 in those games.
Last year, when their offense ranked in the middle of the pack, they scored three runs or fewer in 71 of their 162 games (44 percent).
Guardians record, by runs scored
2022
14-57
78-13
2023
6-18
11-2
And while left-handed pitchers have received a ton of attention, Cleveland hasn’t fared any better against righties.
Entering Wednesday …
The Guardians vs. RHP: .225/.301/.325 slash line
The Guardians vs. LHP: .220/.295/.341 slash line
The Guardians have 19 home runs. Twenty-one of the other 29 teams have at least twice as many. A handful have three times as many. The Rays entered Wednesday one shy of four times that number.
Cleveland’s slugging percentage is .325. No team has posted a lower mark over a full season since the 1976 California Angels. Bobby Bonds led that team with 10 home runs.
Power is a problem. The Guardians can never bail themselves out when they can’t string hits together. During the first road trip, there were numerous instances that prompted thoughts of, “Here are those pesky Guardians again with that brand of offense that annoys the hell out of the pitcher and defense.” That sort of attack has all but disappeared in the month since. No stringing hits together. No running amok. Nothing threatening. A Steven Kwan single here, a Josh Bell walk there.
• With runners in scoring position: .239/.318/.354 slash line (production 19 percent worse than league average)
• With runners on base: .229/.297/.325 slash line (production 32 percent worse than league average)
• With runners in scoring position and less than two outs: .180/.279/.281 slash line (production 46 percent worse than league average)
Mike Zunino is hitless in May. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
The central issue is how widespread the funk is. Literally no hitter on the team is exceeding expectations. Manager Terry Francona is committed to Rosario in the No. 2 spot in the order, which surely doesn’t seem ideal, but it’s not as though other candidates are making compelling cases. Everywhere you look, there’s trouble. Andrés Giménez has a .141/.221/.205 slash line over the past month. Bell and Naylor have offered little muscle in the middle. Mike Zunino is 0-for-20 with 15 strikeouts in May.
José Ramírez is ranked tied for 81st in the league with a team-leading four home runs.
And even when the Guardians show signs of breaking out of their slumber, sequencing doesn’t unfold in their favor. Take Monday night, for example. After Kwan and Rosario reached the corners in the first inning, Ramírez grounded into a double play. His next at-bat, Ramírez hit a solo homer. By that point, though, the Guardians had already spotted the Tigers a three-run lead.
This is not to excuse the lack of results one iota, but for those who care about what the metrics suggest, one can peer deep under the hood and find that the club’s difference between wOBA and xwOBA is the greatest in the league. (I know, some readers are rolling their eyes at those random collections of letters, but in common terms, weighted on base captures hitters’ overall offensive value per plate appearance.) Really, all this suggests is that instead of being the worst offense in the league by light years, the Guardians should be, like, sixth- or seventh-worst. That’s not exactly worthy of a parade down E. 9th Street, but it means certain players such as Naylor and Will Brennan should eventually be due for a reversal of fortune.
A dormant offense places a ton of pressure on a pitching staff that, for now, boasts three rookies in its starting rotation. As Tanner Bibee demonstrated earlier this week, there will be hiccups for the young pitchers. The offense needs to provide an occasional escape route. Of the Guardians’ 37 games, 17 have been decided by one run and another eight have been decided by two runs. That’s a lot of pressure on the bullpen to be perfect, too.
The AL Central — a motley crew of teams mired in mediocrity, mired in a rebuild or careening toward one — shouldn’t be considered some savior for a team off to a rough start. Yes, the Guardians (17-20) are only 2 1/2 games back in the division despite the subpar start. But the blueprint for this season, especially for a franchise carrying a league-long 75-year title drought, shouldn’t be to outlast four other imperfect outfits and then hope to catch fire at the right time in October. It should be to build on what it accomplished last season, to be a team opponents dread facing, to position itself as a legitimate threat to end a World Series hex.
Teams have rebounded from sluggish six-week stretches to start the season. That doesn’t mean this team will, of course. But to make this outage a distant memory and, as Valaika mentioned, to make it merely an educational detour, the Guardians need to emerge from their offensive hibernation.
(Top photo of Amed Rosario: Nick Cammett / Associated Press)
Zack Meisel
Zack Meisel is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Cleveland Guardians. Zack was named the 2021 Ohio Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association and won first place for best sports coverage from the Society of Professional Journalists. He has been on the beat since 2011 and is the author of four books, including "Cleveland Rocked," the tale of the 1995 team. Follow Zack on Twitter