Guardians mailbag: Lineup construction, roster talk, Bo Naylor’s timeline, more
Mar 4, 2023; Mesa, Arizona, USA; Cleveland Guardians second baseman Andres Gimenez (0) hits a double against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning at Hohokam Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
Mar 13, 2023
Let’s get straight to your questions, which have been edited for clarity.
How does Tito seem, health-wise? Do you think this is his last year as manager? — Andrew M.
As healthy and like himself as he’s seemed since before the 2020 season. It’s a good sign when Terry Francona wants to stick around the media workroom at the complex after his morning session to dissect the previous night’s college hoops slate for 20 minutes. That’s been the case all spring.
The remainder of his Cleveland tenure is tethered to his health. I can’t predict that. He can’t predict that. So, no one truly knows the answer. I will say, given how he feels relative to recent years and given the state of the team, if he continues to avoid medical pitfalls, I see no reason he wouldn’t come back in 2024. But who knows?
Could you give a Bo Naylor update? Why isn’t Naylor the No. 2 catcher? It seems he won’t make the Opening Day roster. Is it all about (the) development timeline? Does him playing for Canada (in the World Baseball Classic) factor in? — Billy B.
Bo Naylor and Matt Brash celebrate Canada’s win over Great Britain. (Zachary BonDurant / USA Today)
The Guardians have hinted since the fall that they want Naylor to start the season at Triple A, and Friday they officially told him he was being optioned. That said, they really like him. He’s their future catcher. When will that future arrive? Maybe later this year, depending on Mike Zunino’s health and output. Next year at the latest.
He has an intriguing skill set, with a rocket arm behind the plate (which is especially beneficial with the new rules that encourage base-stealing and limit pickoffs), solid contact ability, some power, some speed and a clear desire to improve. Listening to him converse with Spanish-speaking teammates in Spanish in the clubhouse has been one of the most impressive things I’ve witnessed this spring. He taught several teammates how to play chess. (I picked up on “los pawns.”)
The catcher position carries more responsibility than any other spot on the diamond. In addition to his hitting duties, he has to know the preferences and tendencies of all of his pitchers, as well as the opposing hitters. That’s a lot to learn, and usually there are growing pains. The guess here is at some point this year, the Guardians will transition him to the majors and he’ll gradually absorb some of Zunino’s playing time. But they want him playing daily to start the season, so he’ll do that with Triple-A Columbus, equipped with the knowledge he’s picked up from hanging around Zunino, Sandy Alomar Jr. and Team Canada this spring.
Which of the many young flame-throwers do you see forcing their way into the rotation first (and likely pushing Aaron Civale or Zach Plesac out)? — Greg B.
There are some pitchers in the way who will be summoned first, but one of the most intriguing storylines to monitor this summer will be whether Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams and/or Tanner Bibee can nudge their way into the Guardians’ rotation plan this season. In a recent conversation with The Athletic’s prospects guru, Keith Law, I asked what realistic expectations should be for the trio of Top 50 starting pitching prospects. He noted pitcher health and attrition before adding: “Guardians fans should get their hopes up a little more — this is a heck of a group and if Espino comes back healthy, you can at least hope you get two above-average starters from the trio.” I’m not clairvoyant enough to know which of the three stands the best chance of forcing their way into the majors — Williams and Bibee have commanded plenty of attention this spring — but if they’re all healthy and if there’s a need, any of the three could.
Josh Bell and Josh Naylor will hit in the middle of the lineup, but do you think we see some shuffling with the top of the lineup or do you see a repeat of last year (Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, José Ramírez)? How much longer will Andrés Giménez hit in the 6/7 spot? — David W.
“Oh, we don’t need to make out our lineup ahead of time …” is how Francona would answer this, but he doesn’t need to chime in. His spring lineups have provided all the hints we need to conclude that the top of the order will likely remain the same, with Bell hitting fourth behind Ramírez.
Here’s how I would arrange it. (Granted, I’m just a jabroni with a laptop):
1. Steven Kwan
2. José Ramírez
3. Andrés Giménez
4. Josh Bell
5. Josh Naylor
6. Oscar Gonzalez
7. Amed Rosario
8. Mike Zunino
9. Myles Straw
That’s using the nine expected starters, and basing the arrangement on last year’s production. Against left-handed starters, with the same nine, I’d probably switch it to Rosario at No. 2, Ramírez at No. 3 and Giménez and Naylor lower in the order. But, they don’t pay me to construct lineups.
What do you think are the best and worst-case scenarios for Gonzalez? — Mark M.
There’s probably not another player on the roster with as wide a range of potential outcomes. I recently used Javier Báez as a comparison, not because they’re identical hitters by any means, but because they’re both free swingers with certain metrics parallels. Báez has been both an MVP runner-up and a colossal disappointment in the past five years. For Gonzalez and the Guardians, the best-case scenario is he cements himself as an everyday right fielder, so draw up whatever production you associate with that role. There’s legitimate 30-homer power in there. The worst-case scenario is he fails to adjust to pitchers tossing him more junk out of the zone. That would translate to a low enough on-base percentage to overshadow any power he provides.
If Cleveland is in first place at the trade deadline, are we going to be trading for hitting or starting pitching? — An L.
I’ll guess starting pitching, but here’s the bottom line: The reason you accumulate young talent and stockpile prospects is to construct a championship roster, and part of that equation is trading away some future talent for immediate help. The Guardians couldn’t be better positioned to make upgrades this summer. There’s no excuse not to fix whatever deficiencies might surface between now and then.
Are the Guardians really going to let Rosario play out the season and walk away with nothing but maybe a draft pick (because they extend him) the qualifying offer? That doesn’t really seem like a good business decision. They should be able to trade him for something more valuable. — Richard S.
Long live the Amed Wars.
I think you’re overrating his value on the trade market, especially relative to the risk you’re taking in assuming Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman could step in and immediately match his production. There hasn’t been a robust market for Rosario dating back to last summer. The pool of trade partners is limited to contenders, and most either employ a talented shortstop or preferred to pursue one of the star free agents over the winter. Plus, a contender, in many cases, is going to offer a prospect or two in return for Rosario, rather than a useful major leaguer. There’s risk involved there, too. The Red Sox briefly kicked the tires on him this winter, but apparently weren’t motivated to overwhelm the Guardians. There’s value in a shortstop you can rely on for 2.0 to 2.5 fWAR, but with only one season remaining until he hits free agency, teams just aren’t going to fork over much. The Dodgers would make sense now that Gavin Lux shredded his knee, but the question remains the same from Cleveland’s standpoint: Are you getting enough in return to offset the risk you’re taking? And is it worth a mutiny in your clubhouse this close to Opening Day? If the Guardians weren’t contenders, they would’ve traded him last summer. Instead, it’s not so simple. Sometimes circumstances force you to counter your own convention.
There aren’t many at-bats for the last guy on the (Opening Day active) roster, so does that make Roman Quinn the front-runner? A veteran with speed and defense feels like the perfect type of player for that spot. — Scotty H.
Will Roman Quinn nab a roster spot? (Rick Scuteri / USA Today)
It gives him legitimate consideration, yeah. Part of the calculus is that his primary competition should be receiving consistent playing time to spur their development. There figure to be three bench spots available for Quinn, Freeman, Arias, Will Brennan and Richie Palacios. Quinn wouldn’t need regular at-bats, and he could offer some value with his speed on the bases and ability to chase down fly balls at any outfield spot. The main drawback is he isn’t on the 40-man roster.
If the Guardians played the Cavs in a flag football game who would win? — Jamie P.
How is anyone preventing the Cavs from throwing deep to Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen? (Though, I will say, the Cavs’ potential took a hit with Kevin Love taking his outlet passes to South Beach.)
On the Winking Lizard Hot Take scale, where does Gonzalez and Arias combining for 40-plus homers rank? — Robert B.
Gabriel Arias had one home run in 47 at-bats last season. (Rick Scuteri / USA Today)
Let’s go with chipotle chili — somewhat high up there on the spectrum, but that number is a bit low to consider anything that would have you begging your server for a gallon of milk or a ride to the Cleveland Clinic. Gonzalez has 30-homer potential, says the writer who foolishly predicted 40 homers for Franmil Reyes year after year. Gonzalez did lead the farm system in homers in 2021, and while he socked only 11 in 91 games for the Guardians in 2022, his power seemed to surface more as the season unfolded. He did rack up 27 doubles.
Arias possesses power, too. It’s his contact that’s more in question, and his playing time clouds everything. He’s the favorite to be the utility infielder, but will that afford him enough at-bats to reach 12 to 15 homers? Predicting, say, 28 for Gonzalez and 12 for Arias doesn’t sound outrageous. But it’s a safer bet that one of the two struggles or doesn’t get sufficient playing time to make you prophetic.
Cam Gallagher is getting a ton of reps early this spring. Is he the most likely candidate for the backup catcher role, and if so, does a 40-man roster move need to happen? — Josh C.
He is the favorite and, yes, he’ll need to replace someone on the 40-man roster.
Francona: “We tried to trade for him once. We almost claimed him once. He’s almost been in Cleveland a few times. We feel like he comes in with the right ingredients: a guy who can catch first, run the running game, things like that. He may have had the best job in baseball being (Salvador Perez’s) backup, the way Salvy plays. He has a really good outlook on the way to catch the game.”
Do you think Shane Bieber could get traded if he and the Guardians are far apart money-wise as the deadline nears? — Anonymous U.
I’d argue the Guardians need to be adding playoff-caliber arms this year, not subtracting them (assuming they’re in contention). I think they need to hang onto Bieber until they have some sort of front-of-the-rotation succession plan. That’s where the Espino/Williams/Bibee group enters the conversation, but can you trust them to start playoff games this October? That’s a tall order. Ask again in eight months, though. It could be an interesting winter.
If the Guardians needed to bring up a left-handed starter for a doubleheader, who are two or three guys they would consider? — Ryan D.
Pour one out for Scott Lewis, Aaron Laffey, Billy Traber, Brian Tallet, Jeremy Sowers, David Huff and Jason Stanford. The Guardians have three lefties on the 40-man roster, so they’d conceivably be the choices: Logan Allen, Konnor Pilkington and Joey Cantillo.
The Guards won’t be able to ease their way into the season this year with seven games against the Mariners and three against the Yankees in the first two weeks, plus the impact of the rule changes on pitchers. Would you expect to see an overloaded bullpen to start the year? Is there discussion of starters going fewer innings given the new rules? — Bill L.
Teams can carry a maximum of 13 pitchers, but what you laid out explains why the Guardians would love for one of the relievers who claims an Opening Day spot to be able to handle multiple innings. Tim Herrin, Jason Bilous and Touki Toussaint have all either started or assumed a multi-inning role in the past.
Zack, how do you not know the pasta is still frozen before taking a big-ass bite? — Stacey Y.
You’re asking this about Terry Francona, a guy who woke up the morning of Game 7 of the 2016 World Series with his remote control lodged in his ribs and his glasses buried in a pile of peanut butter.