eocmcdoc wrote:Go Ole Miss!! My mother & her side of the family (8 Uncles & Aunts) born in the Laurel area. Side note. When Katrina hit, one of my friend's cousins & a friend went down on a relief crew (heavy equp ops) & removed a huge tree from the family's driveway. Small world.

Ole Miss looked good on the gametime scores into the 2nd quarter. Good for them, for that quasi achievement until almost halftime.


Alabama looks like a machine as formidable as Katrina. Of course, so does LSU, Oklahoma and Wisconsin.

Terry Pluto

About the Tribe ...

View full sizeChuck Crow, The Plain Dealer
The Indians are hoping some off-season strength work can help develop Ubaldo Jimenez's lower body, giving him a more reliable base for his pitching motion in 2012.

1. The Indians are sending assistant strength coach Nelson Perez to spend much of the winter in the Dominican Republic, where he can work regularly with Ubaldo Jimenez, Fausto Carmona, Carlos Santana and other Tribe players in that area. Perez will pay special attention to Jimenez, who believes his 2011 season started poorly because he arrived in spring training with a groin injury that took a long time to heal.

2. Perez will work with Jimenez to build up the pitcher's legs and lower body. The Indians believe that is part of the reason for the drop in Jimenez's velocity from an average of 96.1 mph in 2010 to 93.4 in 2011.

3. In 2010, Jimenez sometimes was clocked at 100 mph. He didn't come close to that with the Tribe. One idea is that if Jimenez's lower body is stronger, he'll be able to throw harder -- the legs can be nearly as important as the arm in generating speed. The next move is to simplify -- both his delivery and usage of his pitches. He sometimes throws as many as six pitches, too many for a guy with a fastball that should average 95 mph.

4. Jimenez will be 28 in January. He was 10-13 with a 4.68 ERA between the Indians and Rockies. With the Tribe, it was 4-4 with a 5.10 ERA. Trying to find some sunshine among the gloom, the Indians' media notes say he was 3-3 with a 4.06 ERA in his last seven starts. Unfortunately, he gave up 10 earned runs in his final 12 innings of the season.

5. This is the same Jimenez who was 44-33 with a 3.63 ERA from 2008-10 pitching in hitter-friendly Colorado. In addition to his groin injury, Jimenez was on the disabled list in April with a torn cuticle on his right pitching thumb. It's possible that between the groin and thumb injuries, Jimenez altered his delivery and that led to his problems.

6. The real key with Carmona will be his work with Dave Miller, the new bullpen coach. Miller is replacing Scott Radinsky, recently named the pitching coach. When Carmona hit bottom in 2009 and was shipped to Arizona at midseason, it was Miller who tutored him. The Indians hope Miller can help Carmona again.

7. The Indians don't say this, but their realistic goal is for Carmona to resemble the 2010 model: 13-14 with a 3.77 ERA. Like Jimenez, he will be 28 next season. Yes, the Tribe will pick up his $7 million option for 2012, unless they have a drastic change of heart.

8. While decision has not been made on Grady Sizemore's $9 million option, the Indians are giving serious consideration to picking it up. Apparently, Sizemore's agent is not interested in an incentive-type contract -- which I believe the Indians should offer. If Sizemore declines, I go with Michael Brantley in center and use the $9 million to shop for a left fielder who can hit.
About Jason Donald ...

View full sizeChuck Crow, The Plain Dealer
Jason Donald did enough in Arizona to give the Indians reason to believe he can provide utility depth for the infield and outfield next season.
1. Jason Donald is rising in the eyes of the front office. Donald recently spent a few weeks in the Arizona fall instructional league playing the outfield -- especially left and center. The Indians came away very impressed and are talking about ways to have Donald in the lineup several times a week.

2. Start with this fact of baseball life: Someone always gets hurt. The Indians had their entire starting outfield on the disabled list at one point, along with several infielders. The Tribe believes Donald can play nearly any position except catcher. They really like him at second base, short and third. The outfield has added to his value.

3. A right-handed hitter, Donald actually hits lefties -- unlike several of the Tribe right-handed batters. He is a .328 hitter (.886 OPS) against lefties in his two-year career. It's .249 (.635) against right-handers. At the very least, he must be in the lineup every time the Tribe faces a lefty.

4. Asdrubal Cabrera played 151 games and clearly wore down during the season -- hitting .244 (.729 OPS) with 11 homers and 41 RBI after the All-Star break. He had an outstanding season overall -- .273 (.792 OPS) with 25 homers and 92 RBI. But the shortstop needs more rest, and Donald can provide that.

5. Donald hit .318 (.766 OPS) overall in 132 Tribe at-bats. His season started with a hand injury in spring training, then a knee injury. He wasn't fully healthy until July. That he finished strong is impressive. In 428 career at-bats, Donald is a .278 (.713 OPS) hitter with five homers and 32 RBI.

6. While the 27 year old would have some trade value, he is very important to the Indians. They believe with Donald and Jack Hannahan, they have excellent infield depth. They also know Hannahan can take over at third base if Lonnie Chisenhall is injured, or has a major sophomore slump. Hannahan batted .250 (.719 OPS), and was 29-of-90 (.322, .871 OPS) after the All-Star break. All year, he was superb defensively.

CLEVELAND -- The Indians have begun their offseason with a pair of moves that vacated two spots on the team's roster.

On Tuesday, Cleveland outrighted pitcher Mitch Talbot and outfielder Jerad Head from the team's 40-man roster. Talbot is a Minor League free agent, while Head has the option to decline the outright assignment in favor of electing free agency as well.

Talbot opened the 2011 season as the Indians' fifth starter, but his struggles eventually led to a trip back to the Minor Leagues. On the season, the right-hander went 2-6 with a 6.64 ERA in 12 starts for the Tribe. Talbot struck out 36 and walked 28 over 63 2/3 innings.

After reworking his delivery and approach at Triple-A Columbus, the 28-year-old rejoined Cleveland's rotation on Sept. 24 for one final outing in the big leagues. Over 5 1/3 innings against the Twins, Talbot gave up six runs on nine hits and walked four.

Over his final eight starts of the season for the Indians, Talbot went 0-5 with a 7.78 ERA, striking out 21 and walking 18 over 41 2/3 innings. During that stretch, opposing hitters posted a .360 average against the righty.

Heading into 2012, the Indians' rotation candidates include Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Tomlin and Fausto Carmona. Lefty David Huff and righty Jeanmar Gomez are the top contenders for the fifth spot, though Cleveland will be in the market for rotation help this offseason.

Talbot, who is currently out of Minor League options, has slipped behind the pack on the club's depth chart.

Head, 28, struggled in a brief stint with the Indians after enjoying a strong season with Triple-A Columbus. In the Minors, the outfielder hit .284 with 24 home runs and 70 RBIs over 114 games for the Clippers. In a 10-game tour with the Tribe, though, Head hit just .125 (3-for-24) with two runs scored.

Cleveland's 40-man roster currently includes 38 players, with an additional four players (pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Tomlin, along with outfielders Michael Brantley and Shin-Soo Choo) on the 60-day disabled list. Players on the 60-day DL do not count against the roster total.

Who among the 42 remaining becomes a Free Agent and thus drops off the roster? Thome and Fukodome, right? Durbin, I hope? We have a few minor leagues, relievers mostly, to add to the roster. Don't see many other obvious players to drop. Thomas Neal who came from the Giants hasn't been impressive in AAA. Ditto with Corey Kluber who wasn't dreadful in his few games with the Indians, just bad. Perhaps Valbuena or Phelps will be assigned to Columbus; Luis is 15 months younger and a more versatile player; neither has hit in the majors.

Jim Thome to speak at City Club

Published: Wednesday, October 19, 2011, 7:53 AM Updated: Wednesday, October 19, 2011, 7:58 AM
By Plain Dealer staff

Jim Thome will speak at the City Club on Oct. 24.
Indians DH Jim Thome will become the first baseball player since Babe Ruth to address the Cleveland City Club. He will speak Monday at noon at the Marriott at Key Center.
Indians radio voice Tom Hamilton will be the moderator. Tickets for members are $35, non-members $50.
Thome, the Indians’ all-time home run leader, returned to Cleveland in a late-season trade with Minnesota. For more information, call 216-621-0082 or go to cityclub.org.

Jim Ingraham: The Indians should look into two high-priced Red Sox leftovers

Published: Wednesday, October 19, 2011

There's blood in the water in Boston. In Cleveland, the Indians, in their own modest, little way, are prepared to go for it in 2012 and 2013, a two-year window in which team officials feel the Tribe has a legitimate chance to win its division.

That being the case, the Indians should be prepared to strike boldly this offseason, and one of the first phone calls General Manager Chris Antonetti should consider making is to the general manager of the Red Sox — as soon as they hire one.

Boston doesn't have a general manager, or a manager, following the Red Sox's epic late-season swoon and subsequent revelation that some players were drinking beer, eating fried chicken and playing video games in the clubhouse during games.

Red Sox Nation doesn't suffer fools gladly, especially overpaid, underachieving ones. So, in the wake of that colossal collapse by what one local columnist is calling "the most loathed Boston team in history," heads, predictably, are rolling.

Manager Terry Francona was fired. General Manager Theo Epstein, a native New Englander — that's how ugly it's getting up there — is trying to wiggle his way to the Cubs. Former Red Sox players are coming out of the woodwork to take shots at the disorganization of the organization.

It's open season on the Sox, who appear to be in disarray following their historic September crash.

Other shoes are likely to drop, and that's why it's a good time for Antonetti to work the phones.

The Red Sox are going to have to make changes, and there are two high-priced players whose value is at rock bottom right now. Two players who, if the Red Sox are inclined to move them, could significantly improve the Indians, who are always in "buy low" mode:

John Lackey and Carl Crawford.

Lackey is almost certainly gone from Boston. He's been a lightning rod for controversy in his two years there, while pitching horribly — 12-12 with a 6.41 ERA this year — and he was one of the three pitchers who were the in-game beer guzzlers.

My argument for the Indians to have an interest in Lackey is as follows.

Prior to Boston, Lackey was one of the best pitchers in the American League. In his last five years with the Angels, he was 69-38 with a 3.49 ERA. That includes 19 wins and an AL-leading 3.01 ERA in 2007.

Signing with Boston was a bad career move. Lackey's career ERA at Fenway Park is 5.45, compared to 3.88 everywhere else.

Lackey's ERA in six career starts at Progressive Field is 2.79, which is his lowest ERA in any ballpark in which he's had more than three starts.

One of his problems in 2011 was the division in which he pitched. Eleven of his 28 starts were against the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays. His ERA in those 11 starts was 7.39.

Pitching for the Indians, Lackey would get maybe one start each against AL East teams, and close to 20 against AL Central teams. His career ERA's vs. AL Central teams: Detroit 4.01, Chicago 3.81, Minnesota 3.68 and Kansas City 3.36.

Lackey has three years and $45.5 million left on his contract, but the Red Sox would likely be willing to pay a big chunk of that to anyone offering to take him off their hands.

Crawford? Disregard his disastrous 2011. He's another one who isn't suited for Fenway. His career batting average at Fenway (.275) is 20 points lower than it is everywhere else (.295).

Crawford's .226 career batting average at Progressive Field is his lowest career batting average for any ballpark in the majors. I have no explanation for that.

My best counter would be to point out that in his last two years in Tampa Bay, he hit .306 and averaged 103 runs, 29 doubles, 10 triples, 17 home runs and 54 stolen bases per season.

He would instantly improve the Indians in three areas they most need improvement: offense, defense and speed.

Here's the hard part for the Indians: Crawford still has six years and $128 million left on his contract. However, they could effectively lop $16 million off that figure by declining the options on Fausto Carmona and Grady Sizemore. Travis Hafner's $13 million salary comes off the books after next year, so then you're down to five years and $91 million for Crawford.

Maybe you get Boston to pick up a significant portion of that in order to move Crawford's salary. The emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury lessens Crawford's value to Boston, and the Sox could use the Crawford money to take a run at CC Sabathia if he opts out of his Yankees contract.

It's not as if Crawford is the teacher's pet. Sox owner John Henry admitted during a recent radio interview that he was "personally opposed" to signing Crawford in the first place.

Crawford, 30, is still in his prime. Highly athletic players like him can play deep into their 30s (i.e. Kenny Lofton). If it didn't work out with the Indians — or even if it did — they could trade him in a couple of years.

Crawford would probably cost the Indians a player off their major-league roster, but he's also probably better than anyone on it. Consider this potential lineup:

Crawford, LF; Jason Kipnis, 2B; Asdrubal Cabrera, SS; Carlos Santana, C; Shin-Soo Choo, RF; Travis Hafner, DH; Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B; Matt LaPorta, 1B; Michael Brantley, CF.

And this starting rotation: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, John Lackey, Josh Tomlin and Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff or Zach McAllister.

Adding Lackey and Crawford would be bold, expensive and a gamble by the Indians. But we're talking about a two-year window, and teams rarely win divisions by playing it safe.

JIngraham@News-Herald.com

Many words from Tony on 40-man roster management

2011 Indians 40-man review: Who do they remove?

Trevor Crowe and Luis Valbuena may not
survive on the 40-man roster. (Photo: AP)
With the World Series underway the official start of the 2011-2012 offseason is quickly drawing near. For those teams whose season already ended weeks ago they are making final preparations for the November 18th roster date which is four weeks away.

This is a key date in the offseason as teams set their 40-man rosters for the upcoming season by making decisions on which players to keep, which players to remove, and which young players to add in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft in December. The Indians already made two decisions on Tuesday when they outrighted outfielder Jerad Head and right-handed pitcher Mitch Talbot off the 40-man roster.

. . .

For the Indians most of the needed additions to the roster from their farm system this offseason happened over the course of this past season when they rostered such players as third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, second baseman Jason Kipnis, right-handed reliever Zach Putnam and others. While there are still maybe two or three players from the farm system they will add to the roster [Rob Bryson comes to mind, no one else for certain, CIV says], the additions the Indians make this offseason will likely mostly be Major League players via free agency or trade.

With all this in mind, let's take a look at what decisions the Indians may make in creating room on the 40-man roster prior to the November 18th roster deadline. In the next few weeks I will post a follow up to this piece and take an in depth look at what players from their farm system the Indians will consider adding to the 40-man roster.

Roster Breakdown

Currently the Indians have 42 players on the 40-man roster, four of which are on the 60-day disabled list. There is no disabled list in the offseason, so by the November 18th roster deadline the Indians will need to put all players on the 60-day disabled list back onto the active 40-man roster. These four players are right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco, right-handed pitcher Josh Tomlin, outfielder Michael Brantley, and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo.

Shortly after the World Series players eligible for free agency will officially be removed from the roster. The Indians have three players eligible for free agency: outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, designated hitter Jim Thome, and right-handed pitcher Chad Durbin. None of these players are expected to be resigned in advance of the start of free agency, so even with the activation of the 60-day disabled list players back on to the 40-man roster the removal of the three pending free agents technically puts the Indians roster at 39 players right now.

Obviously one open spot on the 40-man roster is not enough for the Indians to make needed and expected acquisitions via free agency and trade or to add some of their young players from the minors, so they still need to remove a few players from the roster.

Who Stays, Who Goes

Looking at the 39 players on the Indians’ roster that are not free agents, the following players appear to have a questionable status on the roster: Fausto Carmona (RHP), Kelvin De La Cruz (LHP), Corey Kluber (RHP), Luis Valbuena (INF), Trevor Crowe (OF), Shelley Duncan (1B/OF), Thomas Neal (OF), and Nick Weglarz (OF). [CIV adds Cord Phelps; who didn't impress Manny Acta in his debut and was PR only in September callup]

That's a lot of guys ranging from low to high chances at being removed from the roster. Here is a breakdown of the chances each player is removed:

Fausto Carmona (Right-handed pitcher)
2011: 7-15, 5.25 ERA, 32 GS, 188.2 IP, 205 H, 22 HR, 60 BB, 109 K

The Indians have a pretty big decision to make on whether or not to pick up Carmona’s $7 million option for next season. This decision is expected to be made rather quickly this offseason as what they do with Carmona will directly affect what they do in the free agent and trade market and will determine how much money they have to spend. He has been an enigma as his inconsistency is maddening, but considering that he is healthy, has averaged 200 innings pitched the last two seasons, and has tons of talent that could still be reached it appears that the Indians will pick up the option. Besides, $7 million would not go very far in free agency for a starting pitcher as few if any pitchers better than Carmona can be signed for anything close to that.

Decision: The Indians pick up the club option and keep Carmona for another year to see if he puts it all together next year. They need starting pitching and in the starting pitching market $7 million for one season with two club option years is very cheap and one of the most team friendly contracts you will find.

Trevor Crowe (Outfielder)
2011: .214 AVG (6-for-28), 6 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 SB, 4 BB, 9 K, .563 OPS

Crowe went into the 2011 season as the favorite to make the opening day roster as the fourth outfielder, but a right shoulder injury in spring training forced him to be shutdown. He ended up having surgery and did not return until mid-September and played in just 15 games before an injury to his left shoulder ended his season prematurely. He is a former 1st round pick so there is a lot invested in him and he also has an option remaining so there is some roster flexibility there next season, but the injuries and performance in the big leagues to date are a concern.

Decision: Due to his injury issues and performance the Indians can probably slip Crowe through waivers without risk of losing him, and that is what I think they will do either now or later this offseason when they need the roster spot. Provided he clears waivers, as a first time outright from the 40-man roster the Indians would still control him for next season.

Kelvin De La Cruz (Left-handed pitcher)
2011 at Double-A Akron: 5-6, 4.19 ERA, 23 G (16 GS), 86.0 IP, 70 H, 3 HR, 57 BB, 95 K

Among players in the Indians’ farm system De La Cruz had one of the more disappointing seasons this year, especially for a player on the 40-man roster. He has now used up two of his three option years the past two seasons at Double-A Akron and his performance has been inconsistent and he has not shown any improvement. The strikeout rate is nice (9.9 K/9 in 2011), but he is still walking way too many batters (6.0 BB/9 in 2011). He had a 6.1 BB/9 rate in 2010 at Akron so a return trip this past season did not help, and now it appears the Indians have resorted to putting him in the bullpen to hopefully fix the command issues. He was once a highly regarded prospect, but injuries and command problems the past few seasons have dimmed his star considerably.

Decision: De La Cruz looks like one of the more sure things to be removed from the roster this offseason considering where he is as a prospect and his plummeting value to the organization. It is possible another team may take a shot and claim him off waivers because he is left-handed and can strike batters out, but the chances appear to be slim and the Indians could risk that. As a first time outright, if he clears waivers he would be under the Indians’ control for 2012.

Shelley Duncan (Outfield/First base)
2011: .260 AVG, 29 R, 17 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB, 19 BB, 56 K, .808 OPS

Duncan played in just 76 games and had 247 plate appearances, yet was a productive player in that limited playing time. For a team hurting for right-handed bats at the corner positions, letting him go without any other alternatives on hand would not make sense. Next year both Duncan and Matt LaPorta will probably go into spring training in a battle to make the team as the right-handed bat off the bench for left field and first base. At the moment the Indians probably plan to have LaPorta open the season at Triple-A Columbus to get him on track, which means before any other moves are made this offseason that Duncan has a firm hold on that bench role to start the season.

Decision: Duncan’s performance this past season along with his versatility to play left field and first base, his excellent clubhouse presence, and his acceptance as a role player off the bench make it highly unlikely he will be removed from the roster this offseason. Even still, it is possible he could be removed later on this offseason if the Indians remove others and find themselves in a roster crunch, especially if the Indians make a sizable right-handed hitting acquisition at first base or left field.

Corey Kluber (Right-handed pitcher)
2011 at Triple-A Columbus: 7-11, 5.56 ERA, 27 GS, 150.2 IP, 153 H, 19 HR, 70 BB, 143 K

Kluber did not have a very good season at Triple-A Columbus this year, which was the result of a lack of consistency and some injuries. [i.e. He did not have a very good season because he didn't pitch very well.] He made his Major League debut in September and pitched in three games out of the bullpen in Cleveland allowing four runs in 4.1 innings. The Indians are still high on him as they think he has good stuff and an ability to get strikeouts, and they did trade right-handed pitcher Jake Westbrook for him a year ago so there is some investment in him that they may still want to see through.

Decision: With Mitch Talbot being outrighted earlier in the week they already removed one starting pitching open for 2012, so it decreases the likelihood Kluber is also outrighted, especially one year after being rostered. I’d say he remains on the roster, but there is still a chance he could be removed. If you are scoring at home I’d put it at 75-25.

Thomas Neal (Outfielder)
2011 at Triple-A: .289 AVG (74-for-256), 40 R, 14 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 8 SB, 14 BB, 57 K, .734 OPS

The Indians acquired Neal back at the end of July and it was a disappointing finish to the season for him as several injuries limited him to just ten games with Triple-A Columbus the rest of the season. Injuries were an issue all season as he only played 70 total games between Triple-A Fresno and Columbus. The Indians acquired him from the Giants for infielder Orlando Cabrera and it looks like he has some value to the organization, but it would have been nice to see what he could do the final six weeks of the season to get a better read on him going forward. The one thing going for him is he is a right-handed hitting outfielder, something the Indians lack from Double-A all the way to the big leagues.

Decision: Neal is definitely a player who is on the short list as a possible roster removal this offseason, though there should be a few players ahead of him on that list. It really depends on how many players the Indians plan to add via free agency, what trades (if any) they make, and how many players from their farm system they need to add. I think he stays on the roster, mostly because of that right-handed bat and because the Indians have not yet seen what he can do.

Luis Valbuena (Infielder)
2011 at Triple-A: .302 AVG, 64 R, 22 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 6 SB, 46 BB, 96 K, .848 OPS

Valbuena had a very good season at Triple-A Columbus, but he only managed to play in 17 games at the big league level and hit .209 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and a .506 OPS. Over the last two seasons he has shown he is too good for Triple-A but not good enough for the big leagues, the very definition of the classic 4A player. With Jason Kipnis and Cord Phelps at second base, Lonnie Chisenhall and Jack Hannahan at third base, Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop, and the versatile Jason Donald available at any of the three positions, there just appears to be no room for Valbuena on the big league roster unless a severe rash of injuries occur.

Decision: Valbuena is only 25-years old, but it is time to pull the plug on him after two poor years at the big league level. While he has proven to be productive at Triple-A and may still have a future in the big leagues, the Indians just have several other options at any position he plays that warrants keeping him and taking up a valuable roster spot. I would be very surprised if Valbuena is on the 40-man roster post November 18th as to me he is one of the most for sure removals this offseason.

Nick Weglarz (Outfielder)
2011 at Double-A: .179 AVG (24-for-134), 25 R, 8 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 36 BB, 43 K, .666 OPS

It was a very disappointing year for Weglarz as once again injuries ruined his season. He tore the meniscus in his knee in spring training and it resulted in him missing the first two months of the season, and then after returning in June his season came to an end in late July when he suffered an injury to his left elbow. Injuries have been an issue for him his entire seven year career as he played in a total of just 128 games the last two seasons and four of his last six seasons have ended prematurely because of injury. There is no denying his power and patient approach as it is something that the Indians and scouts for other teams have loved all along with him. The problem is he is he will turn 24-years old in December and there are huge questions about his health, not to mention he may at best be a designated hitter only if he makes it to the big leagues.

Decision: The Indians know Weglarz is a better player than the player he was statistically this past season, but they may use those poor numbers to their advantage by removing him from the roster and trying to sneak him through waivers. If he is removed he will remain property of the Indians in 2012. My guess right now is he is will be removed from the roster, though that is not as firm as some of the others.

Final Tally

When determining who stays and goes it should be noted that not all of the players will be removed at the same time. Some will be removed right away in the next week or so while others may be removed as needed later in the offseason. As we have seen in the past the Indians have made roster additions in February the past two years picking up Russell Branyan and Orlando Cabrera and needed to remove a player from the roster at that time.

There are certain to be a couple of guys kept on the roster that will leave people scratching their heads. As we have seen in the past a few “sacrificial lambs” will be kept on the 40-man roster in the event roster room needs to be made to add a free agent or trade acquisition. Teams keep a few of these players on the roster instead of loading up with straight prospects so as to not have to designate for assignment a prospect they might otherwise not want to.

So who do the Indians remove? I’ll go ahead and predict that Valbuena and De La Cruz are removed, and maybe not right away but later this offseason Crowe and Weglarz are removed. Those moves should allow five open slots on the 40-man roster to add players from the farm system, free agency, and trade.

So what internal options will the Indians look to fill those open spots? We'll take a look at all the options in the upcoming followup piece in about two weeks.

I'd have to add Matt LaPorta to that list. LaPorta has not impressed me at all either at the plate or in the field.

But! He's a Sabathia by product entitled to entitlements I guess.

Bottom line. He still has value.

J.R. wrote:Jim Thome to speak at City Club

Published: Wednesday, October 19, 2011, 7:53 AM Updated: Wednesday, October 19, 2011, 7:58 AM
By Plain Dealer staff

Jim Thome will speak at the City Club on Oct. 24.
Indians DH Jim Thome will become the first baseball player since Babe Ruth to address the Cleveland City Club. He will speak Monday at noon at the Marriott at Key Center.
Indians radio voice Tom Hamilton will be the moderator. Tickets for members are $35, non-members $50.
Thome, the Indians’ all-time home run leader, returned to Cleveland in a late-season trade with Minnesota. For more information, call 216-621-0082 or go to cityclub.org.

Good for Jim Thome.


Any sentence that begins "the first since Babe Ruth" is nice.


Unless it involved Mrs. Ruth.

Tony's article suggests names to drop off the 40-man roster to open space for prospects and free agents. Very few minor league prospects who need or are worth protection this winter. We have almost no prospects above Class A.

Chun Chen catcher who can hit well and catch OK.

Rob Bryson, speaking of products of the Sabathia trade; he is not currently injured and in case he can stay healthy still pitches well in relief. Bryce Stowell, too, another high quality bullpenner who was hurt part of 2011 but has a much shorter history of DL time than Bryson.

Austin Adams is still a year short of needing protection, I believe.
Ditto for catcher Roberto Perez who is a fine defender and not much of a hitter, although he walks a lot.

Tim Fedroff is a possible: another LH outfielder who lacks any really solid tool; he'll be 25 by spring training; he has little HR power; is fairly good baserunner but doesn't steal a lot; is not capable of playing CF. He can hit for average, sometimes. He sounds like a AAAA player at best.

Fukudome's future

Outfielder Kosuke Fukudome was a solid mid-season trade acquisition for the Indians. He was acquired on July 28th from the Chicago Cubs for very little compensation and he helped stabilize what at the time was a dire outfield situation because of so many injuries.

Anyone who remembers Luis Valbuena in the outfield for a few games in July and how him being out there had a direct affect on some games will immediately recall how bad the situation was in the outfield prior to Fukudome’s arrival. Fukudome ended up playing 59 games for the Indians and played solid defense in center and right field and hit .249 with five homers, 22 RBI, and .671 OPS. His overall numbers with the Indians may not have been very good, but he played better than the numbers suggest.

Some fans have expressed an interest in bringing Fukudome back to the wigwam for another season as the Indians third or fourth outfielder next season; however, there are contract stipulations which will most likely prevent the Indians from even trying to resign him this offseason. What he is actually worth and what the Indians would be forced to pay him if they resigned him prior to free agency is the big issue.

Fukudome has a unique contract in that he only has four years of Major League service time but is eligible for free agency this offseason if the Indians do not sign him to an extension prior to November 15th. Most players after four years of service time are only up for arbitration and are still under club control, but it was written into his contract when he signed his four year $48 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs back in 2007 that if he is not signed to an extension prior to November 15th that his team has to release him. By releasing him it would make him a free agent.

The Indians have the option to offer Fukudome arbitration, but it would be very foolish for them to do so as there would be no benefit for them to do it and they could get stuck paying him a lot of money next year. He is not a Type A or Type B free agent so if he is offered arbitration there would be no draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. If the Indians were to offer him arbitration he would likely accept as it would pay him a lot more than he will probably get this offseason via free agency.

There is also an 80% rule for players in their pre-free agent arbitration years that requires clubs not to offer anything less than 80% of the player's salary and performance bonuses the previous year or less than 70% of his salary and performance bonuses from two years earlier. Since Fukudome made $13.5 million in 2011, it would mean the lowest the Indians could pay him in 2012 would be $10.8 million which would obviously be a gross overpayment.

It is unclear if the 80% rule would apply in this case as it does not apply to free agents that are offered arbitration. It only applies to those players who are in their arbitration years prior to free agency, or in other words have service time above three years but less than six years (I know, it is confusing).

But whether or not the 80% rule applies does not even matter as Fukudome would still get a pretty sizable 2012 salary in arbitration either way if the Indians offered it to him. There is no way he is worth the risk of being forced to pay him significant money for such a low impact player, and considering there would be no compensation if offered arbitration it makes no sense to even offer it to him to begin with.

In a nutshell, do not expect the Indians to offer Fukudome arbitration nor to sign him to an extension prior to November 15th. The Indians want to upgrade the lineup with other possible solutions and they will explore all of those options extensively this offseason. If he is still unsigned come January or February and the Indians have not filled an outfield need it is possible at that time the Indians may explore resigning him. At that time he would cost much less money and for probably just one year.

Sounds like the same 80% that we heard about back in the Danys Baez days.

Hitters' Arbitration Salaries
By Matt Swartz [October 25 at 7:42am CST]
Yesterday, I discussed the model that I developed for MLBTR to predict arbitration salaries. The model uses similar information to that which arbitration panels use to determine salaries, and generates an estimate for players that is very close to the actual salary the players earn. Today, I’ll talk a little bit about the salaries of hitters.

One of the most important determinants of a hitter's salary is playing time. For position players, this comes in the form of plate appearances. While it shouldn't be surprising that back-ups make less than regulars, position players who make it onto the field every day get paid more. For example, Hunter Pence got a $3.4MM raise last year for hitting .282 with 25 HR and 91 RBI, but with 658 PA. Adam LaRoche hit .270 with 25 HR and 85 RBI in 2009, but only got a $2.15MM raise for his 554 PA. This year, we predict Nelson Cruz only managing a $2.1MM raise despite 29 HR and 87 RBI, due to his 513 PA, while we have Hunter Pence getting a $4.2MM raise with 22 HR and 97 RBI, in part due to his excellent 658 PA. Getting onto the field matters to panels, both because you can accumulate bigger counting stat totals and because playing time is just important. Take Pablo Sandoval as another example. He has a career .307 batting average coming into his first year of arbitration, and has averaged over 20 HR per season. Our model projects him for just $3.2MM due to his 466 PA this season. Give him the same career rates of AVG, HR, RBI, and SB but with 650 PA in 2011, and he would get about $4.7MM.

Arbitration isn't fair. The one skill that really gets you paid is power—HR and RBI are far more important than other statistics. Knocking in runs matters, yet scoring them is not too important at all. In fact, once you factor in the AVG and SB that hitters do to put themselves in position to score, the actual runs scored doesn’t seem to matter much at all to arbitration panels. Even AVG and SB, however, pale in importance to almighty HR and RBI. Mike Morse had 95 RBI in the Nationals’ lineup this year, and combined with his .303 AVG and 31 HR, we have him coming in with a solid $3.9MM salary. Baseball-Reference.com estimated in August that Morse would have 50% more RBI if given the same RBI opportunities as Ryan Howard. What would Morse earn with 50% more RBI? Try $4.6MM. That’s $700K the Nationals will save on him simply by putting different guys in front of him in the lineup than the Phillies put in front of Howard.

Position does not seem to matter much either—while catchers certainly get paid a premium for their hard work behind the plate, middle infielders get paid about as well as corner infielders and outfielders. Arbitration, apparently, was built to put smiles on the faces of Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, who accumulate massive HR/RBI totals in potent lineups, but play easy positions. Quietly skilled players who get on base in front of them and play harder positions get paid far less for their contributions. Shortstop Elvis Andrus, for example, comes in at $2.9MM in our projections. Sabermetricians would estimate that his WAR would be about 20% lower if he produced similarly but played 1B instead of SS. However, his arbitration salary would only be about 2% lower.

You can estimate a player's salary to a certain extent using more accurate estimates of value like WAR, but a more sophisticated model that utilizes the same flawed information that arbitration panels use can pick up on these kinds of inefficiencies. Tomorrow, we’ll discuss how panels decide what to pay pitchers.