Indians minor-league analysis: Top tools report
By Michael Hattery 2h ago
This is a stand-in for the weekly “Trip Around the Farm” column, which will return next week in its regularly scheduled time slot.
One of the most fascinating pieces of minor-league coverage is identifying impact or plus tools and tracking their development. Further, identifying carrying or impact tools improves one’s ability to evaluate whether a prospect is hitting certain checkpoint goals and making progress.
Before diving into the tools themselves, it is important to discuss the inputs, nature and context of my tool rankings. My eye test is a portion of the input because I have seen almost everyone listed. However, it is limited in terms of efficacy and influence, which is why the predominant influence is from three categories:
conversations I have had with those inside the Indians’ organization
information I have received from external scouts
analytical inputs guided by research published by Chris Mitchell, formerly of FanGraphs
Like you’d find in a high school yearbook, I have highlighted superlatives or individual tools or skills in addition to the traditional five-tool allocation for position players.
Speed: Quentin Holmes
The 2017 second-round pick features elite speed as his primary carrying tool. Those who analyzed Holmes as a prep prospect had him as a 75 or 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. The issue for Holmes is getting this tool into games both offensively and defensively. As Billy Hamilton has demonstrated, elite speed can only be so valuable if the hit tool is below average. Holmes needs significant refinement to make the speed tool actionable. Unfortunately, Holmes’ developmental timeline has been slowed due to an injury in his first Arizona League game in 2018.
Honorable mentions: Gabriel Mejia, Willi Castro, Ernie Clement
Raw power: Bobby Bradley
Bradley has consistently accessed above-average raw power by leaning on a pull-heavy approach. Bradley has spent the past year and a half diversifying his batted ball dispersion, using the opposite field increasingly to reduce strikeouts. Bradley wields raw power to the pull side but he is a three outcome guy: walk, strikeout or home run.
Honorable mentions: Eric Haase, Will Benson, Yu Chang
Hit tool: Yandy Díaz
This is a complex category, especially for the Indians system. First, a note: For the purposes of evaluating this tool, I have rolled in overall on-base ability. Obviously, Díaz has limitations and he has been picked apart more publicly than many. Díaz simply has exquisite discipline and above-average contact skills. The limitations are in the batted ball profile. An abundance of ground balls limits Díaz’s power tool significantly, but in terms of pure on-base ability, Díaz stands atop a system that does not have a particularly striking group of hit tools.
Honorable mentions: Bo (Noah) Naylor, Tyler Freeman, Nolan Jones, George Valera
Defense: Willi Castro
Castro is cut in the traditional mold of the shortstop, an athletic middle infielder with strong instincts and a light frame. Castro has above-average range and enough arm to handle all the throws demanded of a shortstop. Those connected to the organization in Akron have spoken very highly of Castro’s continual defensive development and skill. The issue for Castro is whether he can develop offensively to the point of raising him above utility infielder to starting-caliber shortstop.
Honorable mentions: Conner Capel, Luke Wakamatsu
Arm: Will Benson
Benson has an absolute hose for an arm and appears to have been sculpted by the gods to conform with the scouting ideal for a right fielder. Of course, the arm tool, like speed, is in many ways capped in impact as a secondary tool that is only influential if first-level tools allow the secondary tool to surface. Here, Benson has to slay his demons: strikeouts. There have been marginal gains, but the freakishly athletic right fielder has to break through his hit tool issues to allow outstanding additional tools to play up.
Honorable mention: Conner Capel
Fastball: Ethan Hankins
As soon as the Indians signed their 2018 first-round compensation pick, Hankins immediately had the best fastball in the system. Hankins’ fastball sits 94-97 when the right hander is healthy, and perhaps its best feature is the weight of the pitch. Hankins’ fastball is a heavy offering with impactful arm-side run. Further, Hankins demonstrates solid extension, wielding his 6-foot-6-inch frame to increase the perceived velocity of the offering.
Honorable mentions: Kieran Lovegrove, Sam Hentges, Henry Martinez, Luis Oviedo
Changeup: Eli Morgan
Morgan’s changeup may be the best singular secondary offering in the Indians system. The pitch has solid depth and is very deceptive. Having a weapon to take advantage of left-handed hitters is a dynamic advantage for Morgan. This pitch alone appears to establish a big-league reliever floor for Morgan with reverse splits. The key test he must pass to develop a rotational future is further development of his slider to use as a weapon against right-handed hitters and demonstrating an ability to add and hold velocity late into starts.
Honorable mentions: Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Luis Oviedo
Breaking ball: Triston McKenzie
McKenzie’s curveball is the best breaking ball in the system. Important when grading any offering is not only the shape and velocity of the offering but also a pitcher’s ability to command the offering inside and outside the strike zone. McKenzie’s curveball is a plus offering because it shows solid depth, and McKenzie has outstanding feel for manipulating the offering inside and outside the strike zone when he needs to.
Honorable mentions: Luis Oviedo (slider), Sam Hentges (curveball), Aaron Civale (slider), Henry Martinez (slider), Mitch Brown (curveball)
Command: Triston McKenzie
If Shane Bieber remained prospect eligible, the category would be named for him. Alas, McKenzie has an outstanding feel for pitching and demonstrates good command of his fastball and curveball combo. The next step for McKenzie is improving his comfort with his changeup and showing an ability to use it in varying counts against left-handed hitters.
Honorable mentions: Aaron Civale, Elijah Morgan
