Indians roster analysis: Tribe needs more from Carmona, Jimenez
Published: Thursday, October 06, 2011
By Jim Ingraham
JIngraham@News-Herald.com
The most unfortunate aspect of the Indians' failure in their unexpected run at winning the Central Division title in 2011 was it wasted a playoff-caliber bullpen. The Indians had their best bullpen since the 100-win American League champs of 1995.
On the other hand, it's remarkable the Indians were able to stay in the race until late August despite a starting rotation in which their opening-day starter, the default No. 1, had a plus-5.00 ERA and led the team in losses for the second straight season, an opening-day rotation so riddled by injuries that 40 percent of it spent a huge chunk of the season on the disabled list, including one starter who eventually had Tommy John surgery and likely won't pitch again until 2013.
Ten pitchers started games for the Indians in 2011. In 36 games — 22 percent of their season — the Indians' starting pitcher was a rookie, Mitch Talbot, who spent much of this season at Class AAA Columbus, or David Huff, who spent most of the last two seasons at Columbus.
Meanwhile, alleged ace Ubaldo Jimenez, acquired at a hefty price in a blockbuster midseason trade, had virtually no impact at all.
Overall, the Indians' pitching staff finished 10th in the American League with a 4.23 ERA. That's a marginal improvement over 2010, when they were 11th with a 4.30 ERA.
Here's a look at the starting pitching and relief pitching as the Indians begin the offseason and look ahead to 2012.
Starters
There are no looming major roster or contract decisions involving the pitching staff. All of the key guys will be back next year, including Fausto Carmona, on whom the Indians hold a club option. But even if they choose not to exercise that option, Carmona is eligible for salary arbitration and, thus, remains under the Indians' control for one more year.
Now, about that option. It's $7 million for a pitcher who, if you throw out his aberrational 2007 season, has a record of 34-58 with a 5.05 ERA in the other five years of his career. That includes the last two years, when he's lost 29 games and had a winning percentage of .408.
Given, however, that Carlos Carrasco will likely miss all of next year while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and that the Indians traded their top two pitching prospects to get Jimenez, it seems likely the team will pick up Carmona's option. Even if they don't, Carmona, who made $6.1 million in 2011, will get something close to that through arbitration.
Not surprisingly, then, Tribe officials continue to talk the good talk about their confounding right-hander, who will pitch next season at 28, but still too often pitches like a rookie.
"It's no secret that it's taken him longer to transition from being a thrower to a pitcher. But he did have the third-lowest run support in the league last year," said Manager Manny Acta.
"He pitched at a high level in 2007 and has the potential to do that again if he can get more consistent with his delivery," said General Manager Chris Antonetti.
In other words, Carmona will be in the Indians' rotation for at least one more year. The difference, however, is he has gone from being the No. 1 starter to a No. 3 or 4 starter.
The new No. 1 is Justin Masterson, who had a sensational, and deceiving, breakout season in 2011. In a team-high 33 starts, he was 12-10, and he could have easily won 16 or 17 games with better run support. His ERA was 2.82 through August, before he appeared to tire in September, finishing with a 3.21 ERA.
Strike-throwing machine Josh Tomlin also had a breakout season, going 12-7 and leading all major-league pitchers with an average of just 1.1 walks per nine innings.
Jimenez was a bust, not a boost, to the rotation, going 4-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 11 starts. Team officials seem inclined to write it off as simply a bad year, which began with an injury and never got off the ground.
"He wasn't able to catch up after the injury, but the stuff is there, and now he knows the American League," said Acta.
The fifth spot in the rotation will be a spring training battle, with the candidates being Huff, Jeanmar Gomez (who led the International League with a 2.55 ERA at Columbus), Zach McAllister (12-3 at Columbus) and perhaps Talbot.
The Indians would like to add another starter during the offseason, but even if they don't, the rotation going into spring training next year looks far better than it did a year ago.
Bullpen
It ain't broke, so there's no need to fix it. Closer Chris Perez and setup men Joe Smith, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Vinnie Pestano were, as a unit, about as good as it gets in the American League.
What should scare Tribe officials, however, is the inherent volatility that historically affects bullpens. It's not unusual for the same group of relievers to be lights out one year, then get lit up the next.
Perez is already fifth on the Indians' career saves list with 60. His 36 saves in 2011 was the ninth-highest single-season total in Tribe history.
Smith's 2.01 ERA ranked fourth among AL relievers, and Pestano had a 2.32 ERA and averaged 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Smith and Rafael Perez both appeared in 71 games. The only AL pitcher who appeared in more was Tigers closer Jose Valverde (75). Sipp is a rare lefty who can dominate right-handed hitters, who only batted .180 against him.
The Indians also have an inventory of young major league-ready relievers, which could allow them to perhaps use one of the big five in a trade. But as they begin their offseason cycle, the least of the worries for Indians officials is the state of their bullpen.
By the numbers
A comparison between the Indians' top five relievers in their AL pennant-winning season of 1995 and the top five relievers in 2011. Listed are each pitcher's won-loss record, ERA and opponents' batting average. The pitchers' ages are in parentheses:
1995
Pitcher (age): W-L, ERA, OBA
Jose Mesa (29): 3-0, 1.13, .216
Julian Tavarez (22): 10-2, 2.44, .235
Eric Plunk (31): 6-2, 2.67, 211
Paul Assenmacher (34): 6-2, 2.82, .225
Jim Poole (29): 3-3, 3.75, .217
2011
Chris Perez (25): 4-7, 3.32, .215
Joe Smith (27): 3-3, 2.01, .217
Rafael Perez (29): 5-2, 3.00, .253
Tony Sipp (27): 6-3, 3.03, .201
Vinnie Pestano (26): 1-2, 2.32, .184
Note: Mesa had a club-record 46 saves in 1995. Chris Perez had 36 in 2011.