Discussing the AL Central-leading Guardians’ promising present and future
Aug 9, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57) pitches in the second inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel and Jason Lloyd
A year ago, the newly-minted-but-not-yet-converted Guardians were embarking on two of the more dull months in recent Cleveland baseball memory. So much Bradley Zimmer. So much Oscar Mercado. More than enough Yu Chang and Bobby Bradley and Bryan Shaw. And no shot at a division crown.
Now, there are storylines galore. Franmil Reyes’ fall from grace. Thirteen players who have made their big-league debut with Cleveland this season. The blossoming of Andrés Giménez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and Triston McKenzie. Emmanuel Clase’s Mariano Rivera impersonation. Manager Terry Francona’s uncertain future. And, oh yeah, the roster filled with major-league toddlers is vying for the American League Central title.
So, Jason, what’s capturing your attention at the moment when it comes to the Guardians?
Jason Lloyd: The fact they’re still in it. How are they still in this?
I mean, I know how. If they aren’t in the worst division in MLB, it’s second only to the National League Central. And if they aren’t the biggest surprise in the AL, it’s only because the Orioles were supposed to be wretched.
The Guardians are clearly ahead of schedule. And if the goal this season was to identify franchise pillars, they’ve got some answers: Giménez, for starters, and I think we can put Naylor in there, too. I’d like to believe Kwan is also in that group, but I think we need more time. I remember when Mercado was considered the center fielder of the future and now he’s stuck in rush hour between Cleveland and Triple-A Columbus.
Andrés Giménez has been worth 3.9 WAR (Baseball-Reference) this season. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
Zack Meisel: Mercado never had any ultra-elite skills, like Kwan does with his contact ability.
Lloyd: Really, I’m most surprised that the Guardians didn’t get anything done at the trade deadline. Zack, we’ve been talking for months about their need to rebalance the 40-man roster. I thought that alone would necessitate some moves. And now we’ve seen a real-life casualty of the 40-man imbalance with the departure of Reyes.
Explain to me why they didn’t get anything done at the deadline and why Reyes is a Cub. He was having an awful year, I get it. But this franchise held onto Jake Bauers for two years longer than he demonstrated any sort of life at the plate. Reyes is gone after five lousy months.
Meisel: There’s a website that contains articles with the answers to both of your questions. It’s called The Athletic. I highly recommend their Guardians coverage.
Lloyd: I’ve heard good things. Can you hook me up with a free subscription?
Meisel: You sound like a certain member of Cleveland’s pitching staff (whom I won’t mention by name because his request is less egregious than that of a former player who made eight figures).
The main thing to keep in mind with Reyes — because I’ve heard from many fans desperate to unearth some jaw-dropping scandal to explain his departure — is the club was going to non-tender him this winter anyway, making him a free agent. The Guardians didn’t deem him worth keeping (and clogging up the DH spot) for $4.5 million, especially since he never showed any signs of reversing course at the plate. Sure, there were frustrations about his work ethic and his priorities, as team figureheads have not-so-subtly revealed in recent weeks. If he had been socking home runs, that stuff wouldn’t have been an issue.
As for the trade deadline, Oakland catcher Sean Murphy was their guy. It didn’t happen. They could have used another pitcher of some sort. Instead, they stood pat, and the parade of prospect promotions has continued. I’ve posed your same points to members of the front office. They know they need to eventually consolidate some prospects — we’ve been saying that for a year now — but they opted to kick the can down the road another few months and evaluate the major-league-ready candidates they have.
Now, that might not be the decision that best jibes with a team in the thick of the playoff hunt, but somehow, this team keeps surprising, and many of the kids who make that trek north on I-71 to Progressive Field haven’t resembled rookies when they’ve put on a Guardians uniform.
Lloyd: We’ve spent months trying to identify the shortstop of the future. While you were away changing diapers, I wrote that Gabriel Arias probably had the inside track on the job, but Arias has been dreadful.
Hear me out. Is the shortstop of the future actually the shortstop of the present? While we keep trying to replace Amed Rosario, he keeps hitting. And getting on base. And improving defensively. He is deeply respected in the clubhouse. He can hit anywhere in the order. So … what if he’s the guy?
And while I’m at it, we’ve heard about George Valera for years. He’s now at the doorstep, in Triple-A. I know they’re already trying to find at-bats for Oscar Gonzalez and Nolan Jones and Kwan and Will Benson, but since he’s already on the 40-man roster, is there any chance we see Valera in September?
Meisel: I’d be surprised, mostly because it’s difficult to squeeze him into the picture when they also need to learn about all of those other guys. But you’re leading us to a key question: How does this team approach its outfield this winter? Do the Guardians grant Valera a chance to seize the everyday right field job in spring training? Can Gonzalez or Jones leave a lasting impression this summer?
The middle-infield logjam has been well-documented, but the outfield crowd might be more fascinating and complicated.
As for Rosario, he deserves kudos for playing his way into the team’s plans. He’s improved defensively and what he lacks in power and walk-drawing, he makes up for with speed and line drives. The front office considered trading him this summer, but given how much he means to the club, for the reasons you explained, and the lack of a compelling trade market, it wasn’t the right move. The Guardians might face the same dilemma this winter. Is it worth dealing him for, say, some 19-year-old prospect, just because Arias and Tyler Freeman are ready for a chance? I’m not so sure. It might make more sense if they could flip Rosario for another useful major-league piece, but even then, it’s not as simple a decision as it might have been last offseason.
Lloyd: My read is that since Valera wasn’t moved at the deadline for someone like Murphy, Valera is going to get his chance next year (or maybe they just really like Bo Naylor).
Barring a complete unraveling over the last eight weeks, even though I’m not ready to label him a pillar, I’d imagine Kwan has done enough to be considered the left fielder entering next season. I’m still trying to figure out if the Myles Straw contract was a good thing. (He’s signed through 2026 with team options for the following two years.) Is it safe to assume Straw is the center fielder next year?
Meisel: That’s a big part of this puzzle, too. They are, understandably, enamored with his defense.
Lloyd: To your point, if Kwan is in left and Straw is in center, that leaves right field (and sometimes DH) for Gonzalez, Jones, Valera, Benson and anyone else I’m forgetting. This is why at least having a conversation about Juan Soto seemed to make a lot of sense: Bundle a number of these guys we’re talking about into what you know is a significant upgrade for the next 2 1/2 years (or at least 1 1/2 seasons until the Guardians could have traded him again to recoup some of those prospects).
If you had one position to target that you wanted to upgrade on this team, what would it be? (And why do I have a sneaking suspicion you might choose the rotation?)
Meisel: Your hunch is on the money. The rotation is in an odd place, especially for this franchise.
Is the current five — Shane Bieber, McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale — talented enough to fuel a deep playoff run? Methinks they need another front-line starter. (I realize I’m saying this as Cleveland starters have logged three consecutive scoreless outings.) Ah, but look no further than Double-A Akron, where Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams (and even Tanner Bibee) reside. It’s not unrealistic to think any of those three could contribute next season, but can you lean on them to provide top-shelf quality? Probably not in 2023.
The future of the rotation is bright. The path there is a bit unclear. McKenzie is a mainstay. We’ve discussed Bieber’s uncertain future ad nauseam, and that’ll be a key storyline this winter. Can the Guardians upgrade one of the other spots while they ease their blue-chip prospects into the fold over the next year or two? They have the trade capital to pull off anything they want. They also have some interesting candidates in Logan Allen, Xzavion Curry and Cody Morris; I expect to see one or two of them before the end of the season.
Are you with me on the rotation, or is your attention elsewhere?
Lloyd: I’m with you. McKenzie is legit, though Plesac and Civale aren’t the top-of-the-rotation type starters we maybe thought at one time they could be. Ideally, I believe the Guardians would like to deal Bieber this winter, but that’s a bit counterintuitive for a team whose contention window is just opening again.
I wanted to drive down to Akron this summer and watch Espino, but his knee and shoulder injuries have sabotaged his season. Now I wonder if Williams caught him and has the shorter timeline to the majors. Who will make it to Cleveland first?
The problem in terms of a trade is trying to figure out which starters are available, and more importantly, which available starter is worth the Guardians’ prospect bounty? My ears tingled a few weeks ago over rumors of Tarik Skubal potentially becoming available, but there’s little chance the Tigers would ever deal him within the division. Finding the right deal is why the Guardians, for a full year now, haven’t been able to turn prospects into gold.
We’ve spent 1,700 words discussing where the Guardians stand and where they’re going. Something we haven’t mentioned? This year’s team doesn’t care about anything we’re discussing. They’re tied for first. They’re doing it again. Simply remarkable.