From Baní to Cooperstown: Is there a realistic Hall of Fame path for Guardians third baseman José Ramírez?
Cleveland Indians' Jose Ramirez bats during the first inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
By Zack Meisel 3h ago 6
CLEVELAND — As José Ramírez blitzed through Cleveland’s farm system nearly a decade ago, the team’s front office evaluators were giddy. They knew they had unearthed the heir apparent.
To super-utility infielder Mike Aviles, that is.
They admit they never imagined Ramírez would blossom into a lineup cornerstone, a perennial MVP candidate and the heartbeat of the franchise. An everyday regular? Maybe. A versatile, singles-slapping super-sub? That seemed more plausible. They certainly wouldn’t have envisioned his name and the quaint village of Cooperstown, N.Y., weaving their way into the same sentence. Granted, it’s premature to declare anything about the direction in which Ramírez’s career is heading. It might be a bit presumptuous to even forecast what might be possible.
But is there a way? Is there a path to the Hall of Fame for the hitting savant whom manager Terry Francona once dubbed “Little Shit” for the way he wreaked havoc on the basepaths as an early-20s big leaguer?
Only 17 third basemen have residency in Cooperstown, so the odds appear daunting. It’s actually more exclusive than it appears, too: Nine of those 17 played in either the 1800s or the first half of the 20th century.
Deacon White played around the time the stapler was invented (the late 1870s, by George McGill, Henry R. Heyl or Charles Henry Gould, depending on which version you prefer). Jimmy Collins played in the 1890s and Home Run Baker — how do you not induct a guy named Home Run Baker? — in the 1910s. Pie Traynor and Freddie Lindstrom played during the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression. Judy Johnson, Ray Dandridge and Jud Wilson played in the Negro Leagues in the ’20s, ’30s and ’40s. George Kell played in the ’40s and ’50s.
Only eight third basemen who played in the last 60 years have been elected to the Hall. Perhaps Ramírez, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant will reverse the trend. Scott Rolen is drawing plenty of consideration on the ballot. Adrián Beltré will soon join him.
To determine what Ramírez must accomplish to position himself well, let’s start by examining the resumes of the eight modern-day Hall of Fame third basemen.
Brooks Robinson: 16-time Gold Glove winner, 1964 AL MVP, 1970 World Series MVP, .267/.322/.401 slash line
Paul Molitor: 10th-most hits in major-league history, 1993 World Series MVP, .306/.369/.448 slash line
Wade Boggs: Five-time batting champion, two-time Gold Glove winner, .328/.415/.443 slash line
Chipper Jones: 1999 NL MVP, one batting title, .303/.401/.529 slash line
George Brett: 1980 AL MVP, one Gold Glove Award, three-time batting champion, .305/.369/.487 slash line
Mike Schmidt: Three-time NL MVP, 1980 World Series MVP, 10-time Gold Glove winner, six-time home run champion, .267/.380/.527 slash line
Eddie Mathews: Two-time home run champion, .271/.376/.509 slash line
Ron Santo: Five-time Gold Glove winner, .277/.362/.464 slash line
Hall of Fame 3B, last 60 years
Brooks Robinson
2848
268
105
2896
Paul Molitor
3319
234
122
2683
Wade Boggs
3010
118
131
2439
Chipper Jones
2726
468
141
2499
George Brett
3154
317
135
2707
Mike Schmidt
2234
548
148
2404
Eddie Mathews
2315
512
143
2391
Ron Santo
2254
342
125
2243
Robinson was the best defensive third baseman of all time. Molitor, Boggs and Brett were hitting machines who ripped single and double after single and double in a bygone era. It’s difficult to compare those four to Ramírez or any other Hall hopeful. Jones, Schmidt and Mathews are the better comparisons. Santo was elected by a veterans committee nearly 30 years after his career ended.
Ramírez’s numbers through 2021: 987 hits, 163 home runs, .278/.354/.501 slash line, 126 OPS+
Overall, nothing at the moment shouts that Ramírez is destined for Cooperstown. There’s one absolute, undeniable requirement for him to change that: He needs to play for a long time. It helps that he loves the sport. He participates in pickup games in his hometown during the offseason. He built an infield in his backyard, right beside a basketball court and a pool. He can’t get enough baseball.
Over the last six seasons, 2016 to 2021, when he has been an established major leaguer who received daily playing time, Ramírez has posted an .895 OPS (and a 135 OPS+, or 35 percent better than a league-average hitter). In that span, he ranks second in the majors with 398 extra-base hits and seventh in the majors with 134 stolen bases.
The longer Ramírez maintains that level of production, the less influence his dismal 2014-15 showings will have on his overall numbers.
Rolen has been trending in the right direction on the Hall of Fame ballot the last few years. The eight-time Gold Glove winner holds a significant edge, defensively, over Ramírez. On offense, it’s a close comparison.
Ramírez: .855 OPS, 126 OPS+
Rolen: .855 OPS, 122 OPS+
Rolen had only one top-10 MVP finish in his career. He won one Silver Slugger Award. Ramírez has three top-three MVP finishes and owns three Silver Slugger awards.
José Ramírez in 2017, the first of his three top-three MVP finishes. (Raj Mehta / USA Today)
Obviously, Ramírez’s chances are predicated on him preserving his 2016-21 pace well into his 30s. Based on OPS+, he has been at least 40 percent better than league average in four of the last five seasons. That needs to continue. Ramírez will turn 30 in mid-September.
The eight aforementioned Hall of Fame third basemen averaged 2,533 games. Ramírez is only 40 percent of the way there. He needs another 1,553 games to reach that mark, which equates to another decade’s worth of healthy seasons and means he’ll need to play until he reveals some gray hair every time his helmet goes airborne.
That’s a tall order, and probably the greatest obstacle standing in the path from his hometown of Baní in the Dominican Republic to Cooperstown. At some point, he’ll encounter some age-related decline. Health can become more fickle in the later stages of one’s career, too.
Ramírez has appeared in 93.1 percent of Cleveland’s games the last six years. If he plays in 93.1 percent of his team’s games the next 10 years — that’s asking a lot of anyone, let alone someone in their 30s — that would equate to 1,508 games, which would leave him just shy of that 2,533 average.
So, he’s already at a bit of a disadvantage in terms of accumulating counting statistics. Over the last five seasons, Ramírez has averaged a home run every 4.5 games. That pace will eventually decrease, but 400 home runs is certainly not out of the question. He stands 237 shy. Let’s say he doubles his career total (163) over the next five years (32.6 per season, pretty close to the expected output based on his track record of availability and his home run rate). That would take him to 326. He would need 74 more home runs after his 33rd birthday. A daunting task, perhaps, but not an impossible one.
Something to consider: Have we seen the very best of José Ramírez?
His profile is far from a secret: The guy loves to yank fastballs over the fence. Pitchers can’t throw him junk on the outside corner because Ramírez boasts elite strike zone awareness. He doesn’t chase pitches. He doesn’t swing and miss. He doesn’t strike out often. He lures pitchers into his web and forces them to throw the one pitch he covets. They know it. He knows they know it. They know he knows they know it. And it still doesn’t matter.
Teammates and coaches stress he’s as smart as any player they’ve seen, and backed by brilliant instincts. How else does a guy with unspectacular wheels steal so many bases and at such a high clip? That mental edge should aid his cause as he ages and can no longer catch up to a 98 mph fastball like he once could or can’t leg out an infield single. He’s a shrewd and skilled enough hitter to adapt to his shortcomings.
If MLB ever imposes restrictions on infield shifting, Ramírez should flourish, given how frequently he socks a sharp grounder to the short-right fielder. When batting left-handed last season, Ramírez faced a defensive shift in 96.4 percent of his plate appearances. Only Carlos Santana saw an altered alignment more often.
We should also consider WAR, as voting strategies adjust to incorporate more advanced statistics. (We’ll use FanGraphs’ WAR for this exercise.)
HOF-worthy third basemen, by WAR
Mike Schmidt
106.5
Eddie Mathews
96.1
Wade Boggs
88.3
Chipper Jones
84.6
George Brett
84.6
Adrian Beltre
84.1
Brooks Robinson
80.2
Ron Santo
70.9
Scott Rolen
69.9
Paul Molitor
67.6
José Ramírez
34.4
Where might Ramírez wind up? It’s a bit tricky to estimate. His 3.5 fWAR total from 2020 covered only 58 games because of the pandemic. He was on pace for 9.5, an absurdly productive season. If we use that number, Ramirez has averaged 6.5 fWAR per full season over the last six years. Since he’ll soon be entering his 30s, that number figures to dip. If he averages 6.0 fWAR per season over the next six years, he’ll pass Rolen by his 35th birthday. It won’t be easy for Ramírez to keep up that pace, but it might be necessary for his Hall hopes, given where Jones, Beltre, Brett, Boggs and others stand. Beltre amassed most of his fWAR total after he turned 29; when he was Ramírez’s age, he’d posted a 35.2 fWAR, a tick ahead of where Ramírez stands.
At minimum, Ramírez can build an intriguing case if he maintains his offensive output and avoids lengthy stints on the injured list for another seven or eight years. That would vault him past the 2,000-hit mark, nudge him toward 400 home runs and offer him ample opportunity to capture that elusive MVP honor. That would also prop him up in comparisons with Jones, Schmidt and Mathews.
It’s far too early to start scripting his speech, but it’s at least interesting to think about. Hey, Ramírez has already slugged nearly twice as many home runs as Home Run Baker. That’s a good start. Odds are against him, but that’s nothing new for a guy once destined to fill a utility infielder role.
(Top photo: Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)