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Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:19 pm
Final Thoughts: The official 2020 Cleveland Indians autopsy, and what lies ahead
Zack Meisel Oct 5, 2020 46
CLEVELAND — Now that the body is cold, it’s time for the annual Cleveland Indians autopsy. Here are 10 thoughts on the 2020 season, a pivotal offseason and the club’s future.
1. Before we dig in on the state of the franchise, let’s tackle a trivia question. Can you name the Cleveland hitters responsible for the final outs of each of the Indians’ last four playoff runs?
That image of Michael Martínez jogging back to the dugout as a sea of Cubs blue flooded the infield is burned into the memory of every Cleveland fan. That’s the 2016 answer.
The following year, Austin Jackson, a productive part-time outfielder in his penultimate season, struck out against Aroldis Chapman as the Yankees completed their ALDS comeback and dismissed the Indians, the odds-on favorites to win the World Series, from postseason play.
In 2018, Melky Cabrera grounded out to mercifully put an end to the Astros’ dismantling of the Indians in the ALDS.
And last week, Austin Hedges, a midseason acquisition who amassed 12 plate appearances as the club’s third catcher, pinch hit for Tyler Naquin with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and with Chapman, as he always seems to be, aiming to end Cleveland’s season. Hedges struck out.
Michael Martínez. Austin Jackson. Melky Cabrera. Austin Hedges.
That’s, um, quite a quartet.
2. This could be a winter of change for the Indians.
There’s the matter of Francisco Lindor, the All-Star shortstop who is well aware that he could be on the move in the next couple of months. More on that in a moment.
There’s the matter of Carlos Santana, the long-tenured first baseman who is tied for fifth in team history in home runs (with Hal Trosky, and behind Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez and Earl Averill) and second in walks (behind Thome). Santana has a $17.5 million club option for 2021, and even if we avoid placing a ton of stock in a 60-game season with atypical protocols and conditions, Santana made the decision easier on upper management with his .199/.349/.350 slash line.
There’s the matter of Brad Hand, the closer who converted all 16 of his save opportunities during the regular season, only to slip up in the ninth inning of Game 2 against the Yankees. Hand has a $10 million club option for 2021. If another team fixates on his results and not his diminished velocity, maybe they’d trade for him at that price. It’s difficult to envision the Indians paying him that salary.
There’s the matter of Terry Francona, who continues to recover from gastrointestinal and blood-clotting issues. Late in the season, he seemed hopeful to return at some point, whether this year or next, but his status is unknown. He exercised at Progressive Field during games in September and would watch the final few innings in a suite with Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff.
And, by the way, eventually, this team won’t even be referred to as the Indians. The timetable on the name change remains unclear at this point.
3. Those who sense a rebuild approaching, look around. Much of it has already taken place.
The Indians’ aim is never to commit to a full teardown, the sort of multiyear slog that sparks apathy in a fan base. The Indians garnered the top local TV ratings in the league in 2020. There’s interest.
But really, they’ve been retooling for several years now.
4. Consider the pitching staff. Shane Bieber is firmly entrenched as the staff ace for the next four seasons. Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Logan Allen and Scott Moss are all major-league ready, pre-arbitration starters. Jefry Rodríguez could fill some role. Adam Plutko is out of options. Carlos Carrasco is the only option slated to earn more than the league minimum.
The bullpen has James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase (who was reinstated last week), Cam Hill, Phil Maton, Adam Cimber and a slew of prospects ready for a big-league opportunity, such as Kyle Nelson and Nick Sandlin. Hand and Nick Wittgren are the only relievers in line to earn more than the league minimum.
So, the pitching staff is young, deep and inexpensive. It’ll all be about constructing a formidable lineup.
5. For a few years, the Indians’ mantra has been about tending to the present while simultaneously protecting the future. The front office must multitask because of the limited financial resources granted to it.
The pitching factory the organization has established has made everything a bit easier. The front office isn’t infallible, though.
If Lindor has played his final game for the Indians, did the franchise squeeze the most out of his tenure? They surely won’t be shopping him at peak value (the pandemic could play a role in that; fear of a weak trade market factored into the club’s thinking with the timing of the Mike Clevinger deal). They didn’t surround him with as much talent the last two years as they did earlier in his career.
6. Lindor has proven incredibly polished since he stepped foot in the visitors clubhouse at Comerica Park the morning of his big-league debut in 2015. He’s pretty skilled at providing his own PR.
He admitted he has thought about the possibility that he has donned an Indians uniform for the last time but said it’s only because of the topic’s popularity on social media. He knows how the franchise operates, though. He has watched the team trade Clevinger and Trevor Bauer as they approached the expensive stages of the arbitration process. So, I asked Lindor if he is surprised that it’s such a common discussion.
“No, not surprised,” he said. “It makes sense. It is what it is. You can’t cover the sky with one hand. It makes sense. It’s the reputation this organization has. It is what it is. But on the other hand, I can’t control the future. I can’t control the moves the organization makes.”
True. But Lindor also knew how this would unfold if the two sides never struck a long-term agreement (and it sure appears that they’ve never been close to doing so). Now, the team will either settle for the best offer this winter or hang onto him for one, final season and bid farewell to him in free agency next winter. Again, it’s all about balancing the present and the future.
Has Francisco Lindor played his final game with Cleveland? (Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images)
7. Either way, fans will channel their frustrations toward ownership, not toward the shortstop. Lindor was quick to point out that the Indians are valued at (more than) $1 billion, and that the league recently cashed in on another multi-billion-dollar TV deal.
He has never revealed precisely how much money he’d be seeking in a new pact, but he did tell The Athletic during spring training that the Indians had not offered anything north of $300 million. No matter what happens, expect plenty of posturing from both sides in the coming months. (The Indians should probably leak what their largest offer was to Lindor, unless it was embarrassingly low.)
Lindor didn’t produce a standard (for him) 2020 season. His struggles with runners in scoring position — a .189/.293/.308 slash line the last two years — are baffling. But he still represents what every team is seeking in a face of the franchise.
Just imagine the conversations we’d be having if José Ramírez hadn’t signed his team-friendly extension a few years ago.
8. If the Indians trade Lindor, that would create a vacancy at shortstop, unless they address that spot in the trade. They could also have an opening at second base, assuming César Hernández departs via free agency. He turned out to be a great signing, posting a .283/.355/.408 slash line and leading the league with 20 doubles, a skilled contact hitter to sandwich between Lindor and Ramírez.
We’d have a clearer sense of the team’s infield options if there had been a minor-league season. It’s difficult for everyone to evaluate if, say, Tyler Freeman or Nolan Jones will be capable of stepping into a starting role in April. The Indians began fall instructional workouts at their complex in Arizona on Monday. Those will run through the end of the month. The schedule includes games against the Dodgers and Reds. The Indians have 49 prospects in camp; none from the 40-man roster, per league rules.
9. So, the infield could have several openings. If Santana doesn’t return on a cheaper, hometown deal, Josh Naylor, Bobby Bradley and Jake Bauers could all vie to replace him.
And then there’s the outfield. The Indians deployed 26 different starting outfield combinations in 2020. Nothing worked.
If we start with the year 1901, when the franchise was founded, and sort by wRC+ (an all-encompassing offensive metric that measures output relative to the rest of the league, with 100 being league average), we can determine the worst outfields of all time from a hitting standpoint.
The 2020 Indians ranked next to last, ahead of only the 2020 Pirates.
Least productive offensive outfields of all time
2020 Pirates
47
19-41
.317
2020 Indians
53
35-25
.583
2020 Rangers
63
22-38
.367
1981 Blue Jays
68
37-69
.349
2015 Reds
74
64-98
.395
1950 White Sox
74
60-94
.390
1955 Pirates
74
60-94
.390
2011 Mariners
75
67-95
.414
1955 Cubs
76
72-81
.471
1993 Marlins
76
64-98
.395
1910 White Sox
76
68-85
.444
2014 Reds
76
76-86
.469
Granted, it’s a smaller sample size than a customary season, but the Pirates and Rangers owned the two worst records in baseball in 2020. That’s not the sort of company the Indians should aim to keep.
The outfield has been an issue for longer than just this season, too.
More trivia! Can you name the last player to start at least 100 games in a season in center field for the Indians?
That would be Michael Bourn in 2014, when he made 104 starts in center. Even more noteworthy: The Indians have had a different player lead the team in starts in center each year since 2015, when Bourn, who was traded in August, edged out Abraham Almonte for the title.
Number of starts in CF
Delino DeShields, 32
Oscar Mercado, 77
Greg Allen, 65
Bradley Zimmer, 73
Tyler Naquin, 90
Michael Bourn, 80
Oscar Mercado, 19
Leonys Martín, 65
Rajai Davis, 33
Austin Jackson, 38
Rajai Davis, 66
Abraham Almonte, 49
Bradley Zimmer, 6
Greg Allen, 15
Bradley Zimmer, 29
Lonnie Chisenhall, 19
Michael Martínez, 3
Michael Brantley, 24
10. It’s unfair to make sweeping declarations about two games against the Yankees. The lineup remains the team’s Achilles’ heel, even after the pitching staff imploded in the wild-card series.
But count Antonetti among those who hope the 16-team playoff field is a one-year feature.
“I’m not sure eight (in each league) is the right number,” he said, “but maybe there’s some number between five and eight that makes some sense.”
In the AL Central, the White Sox should be a force for years. The Twins need to shore up certain parts of their roster, but they don’t appear to be going anywhere. The Royals and Tigers soon won’t be the pushovers they have been in recent years.
The Indians will continue to balance their present and their future. This is a critical offseason to do so. If they trade Lindor, they can’t misfire. If ownership guts the payroll, the front office needs to pinpoint creative ways to make upgrades. There’s a Cy Young winner and a potential league MVP to surround with talent.
Zack Meisel Oct 5, 2020 46
CLEVELAND — Now that the body is cold, it’s time for the annual Cleveland Indians autopsy. Here are 10 thoughts on the 2020 season, a pivotal offseason and the club’s future.
1. Before we dig in on the state of the franchise, let’s tackle a trivia question. Can you name the Cleveland hitters responsible for the final outs of each of the Indians’ last four playoff runs?
That image of Michael Martínez jogging back to the dugout as a sea of Cubs blue flooded the infield is burned into the memory of every Cleveland fan. That’s the 2016 answer.
The following year, Austin Jackson, a productive part-time outfielder in his penultimate season, struck out against Aroldis Chapman as the Yankees completed their ALDS comeback and dismissed the Indians, the odds-on favorites to win the World Series, from postseason play.
In 2018, Melky Cabrera grounded out to mercifully put an end to the Astros’ dismantling of the Indians in the ALDS.
And last week, Austin Hedges, a midseason acquisition who amassed 12 plate appearances as the club’s third catcher, pinch hit for Tyler Naquin with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and with Chapman, as he always seems to be, aiming to end Cleveland’s season. Hedges struck out.
Michael Martínez. Austin Jackson. Melky Cabrera. Austin Hedges.
That’s, um, quite a quartet.
2. This could be a winter of change for the Indians.
There’s the matter of Francisco Lindor, the All-Star shortstop who is well aware that he could be on the move in the next couple of months. More on that in a moment.
There’s the matter of Carlos Santana, the long-tenured first baseman who is tied for fifth in team history in home runs (with Hal Trosky, and behind Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez and Earl Averill) and second in walks (behind Thome). Santana has a $17.5 million club option for 2021, and even if we avoid placing a ton of stock in a 60-game season with atypical protocols and conditions, Santana made the decision easier on upper management with his .199/.349/.350 slash line.
There’s the matter of Brad Hand, the closer who converted all 16 of his save opportunities during the regular season, only to slip up in the ninth inning of Game 2 against the Yankees. Hand has a $10 million club option for 2021. If another team fixates on his results and not his diminished velocity, maybe they’d trade for him at that price. It’s difficult to envision the Indians paying him that salary.
There’s the matter of Terry Francona, who continues to recover from gastrointestinal and blood-clotting issues. Late in the season, he seemed hopeful to return at some point, whether this year or next, but his status is unknown. He exercised at Progressive Field during games in September and would watch the final few innings in a suite with Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff.
And, by the way, eventually, this team won’t even be referred to as the Indians. The timetable on the name change remains unclear at this point.
3. Those who sense a rebuild approaching, look around. Much of it has already taken place.
The Indians’ aim is never to commit to a full teardown, the sort of multiyear slog that sparks apathy in a fan base. The Indians garnered the top local TV ratings in the league in 2020. There’s interest.
But really, they’ve been retooling for several years now.
4. Consider the pitching staff. Shane Bieber is firmly entrenched as the staff ace for the next four seasons. Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Logan Allen and Scott Moss are all major-league ready, pre-arbitration starters. Jefry Rodríguez could fill some role. Adam Plutko is out of options. Carlos Carrasco is the only option slated to earn more than the league minimum.
The bullpen has James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase (who was reinstated last week), Cam Hill, Phil Maton, Adam Cimber and a slew of prospects ready for a big-league opportunity, such as Kyle Nelson and Nick Sandlin. Hand and Nick Wittgren are the only relievers in line to earn more than the league minimum.
So, the pitching staff is young, deep and inexpensive. It’ll all be about constructing a formidable lineup.
5. For a few years, the Indians’ mantra has been about tending to the present while simultaneously protecting the future. The front office must multitask because of the limited financial resources granted to it.
The pitching factory the organization has established has made everything a bit easier. The front office isn’t infallible, though.
If Lindor has played his final game for the Indians, did the franchise squeeze the most out of his tenure? They surely won’t be shopping him at peak value (the pandemic could play a role in that; fear of a weak trade market factored into the club’s thinking with the timing of the Mike Clevinger deal). They didn’t surround him with as much talent the last two years as they did earlier in his career.
6. Lindor has proven incredibly polished since he stepped foot in the visitors clubhouse at Comerica Park the morning of his big-league debut in 2015. He’s pretty skilled at providing his own PR.
He admitted he has thought about the possibility that he has donned an Indians uniform for the last time but said it’s only because of the topic’s popularity on social media. He knows how the franchise operates, though. He has watched the team trade Clevinger and Trevor Bauer as they approached the expensive stages of the arbitration process. So, I asked Lindor if he is surprised that it’s such a common discussion.
“No, not surprised,” he said. “It makes sense. It is what it is. You can’t cover the sky with one hand. It makes sense. It’s the reputation this organization has. It is what it is. But on the other hand, I can’t control the future. I can’t control the moves the organization makes.”
True. But Lindor also knew how this would unfold if the two sides never struck a long-term agreement (and it sure appears that they’ve never been close to doing so). Now, the team will either settle for the best offer this winter or hang onto him for one, final season and bid farewell to him in free agency next winter. Again, it’s all about balancing the present and the future.
Has Francisco Lindor played his final game with Cleveland? (Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images)
7. Either way, fans will channel their frustrations toward ownership, not toward the shortstop. Lindor was quick to point out that the Indians are valued at (more than) $1 billion, and that the league recently cashed in on another multi-billion-dollar TV deal.
He has never revealed precisely how much money he’d be seeking in a new pact, but he did tell The Athletic during spring training that the Indians had not offered anything north of $300 million. No matter what happens, expect plenty of posturing from both sides in the coming months. (The Indians should probably leak what their largest offer was to Lindor, unless it was embarrassingly low.)
Lindor didn’t produce a standard (for him) 2020 season. His struggles with runners in scoring position — a .189/.293/.308 slash line the last two years — are baffling. But he still represents what every team is seeking in a face of the franchise.
Just imagine the conversations we’d be having if José Ramírez hadn’t signed his team-friendly extension a few years ago.
8. If the Indians trade Lindor, that would create a vacancy at shortstop, unless they address that spot in the trade. They could also have an opening at second base, assuming César Hernández departs via free agency. He turned out to be a great signing, posting a .283/.355/.408 slash line and leading the league with 20 doubles, a skilled contact hitter to sandwich between Lindor and Ramírez.
We’d have a clearer sense of the team’s infield options if there had been a minor-league season. It’s difficult for everyone to evaluate if, say, Tyler Freeman or Nolan Jones will be capable of stepping into a starting role in April. The Indians began fall instructional workouts at their complex in Arizona on Monday. Those will run through the end of the month. The schedule includes games against the Dodgers and Reds. The Indians have 49 prospects in camp; none from the 40-man roster, per league rules.
9. So, the infield could have several openings. If Santana doesn’t return on a cheaper, hometown deal, Josh Naylor, Bobby Bradley and Jake Bauers could all vie to replace him.
And then there’s the outfield. The Indians deployed 26 different starting outfield combinations in 2020. Nothing worked.
If we start with the year 1901, when the franchise was founded, and sort by wRC+ (an all-encompassing offensive metric that measures output relative to the rest of the league, with 100 being league average), we can determine the worst outfields of all time from a hitting standpoint.
The 2020 Indians ranked next to last, ahead of only the 2020 Pirates.
Least productive offensive outfields of all time
2020 Pirates
47
19-41
.317
2020 Indians
53
35-25
.583
2020 Rangers
63
22-38
.367
1981 Blue Jays
68
37-69
.349
2015 Reds
74
64-98
.395
1950 White Sox
74
60-94
.390
1955 Pirates
74
60-94
.390
2011 Mariners
75
67-95
.414
1955 Cubs
76
72-81
.471
1993 Marlins
76
64-98
.395
1910 White Sox
76
68-85
.444
2014 Reds
76
76-86
.469
Granted, it’s a smaller sample size than a customary season, but the Pirates and Rangers owned the two worst records in baseball in 2020. That’s not the sort of company the Indians should aim to keep.
The outfield has been an issue for longer than just this season, too.
More trivia! Can you name the last player to start at least 100 games in a season in center field for the Indians?
That would be Michael Bourn in 2014, when he made 104 starts in center. Even more noteworthy: The Indians have had a different player lead the team in starts in center each year since 2015, when Bourn, who was traded in August, edged out Abraham Almonte for the title.
Number of starts in CF
Delino DeShields, 32
Oscar Mercado, 77
Greg Allen, 65
Bradley Zimmer, 73
Tyler Naquin, 90
Michael Bourn, 80
Oscar Mercado, 19
Leonys Martín, 65
Rajai Davis, 33
Austin Jackson, 38
Rajai Davis, 66
Abraham Almonte, 49
Bradley Zimmer, 6
Greg Allen, 15
Bradley Zimmer, 29
Lonnie Chisenhall, 19
Michael Martínez, 3
Michael Brantley, 24
10. It’s unfair to make sweeping declarations about two games against the Yankees. The lineup remains the team’s Achilles’ heel, even after the pitching staff imploded in the wild-card series.
But count Antonetti among those who hope the 16-team playoff field is a one-year feature.
“I’m not sure eight (in each league) is the right number,” he said, “but maybe there’s some number between five and eight that makes some sense.”
In the AL Central, the White Sox should be a force for years. The Twins need to shore up certain parts of their roster, but they don’t appear to be going anywhere. The Royals and Tigers soon won’t be the pushovers they have been in recent years.
The Indians will continue to balance their present and their future. This is a critical offseason to do so. If they trade Lindor, they can’t misfire. If ownership guts the payroll, the front office needs to pinpoint creative ways to make upgrades. There’s a Cy Young winner and a potential league MVP to surround with talent.