What to expect when the Indians and Yankees clash in Cleveland
By Zack Meisel and Lindsey Adler 6h ago 32
CLEVELAND — They returned sometime in the last week or so, hundreds of midges, fluttering aimlessly toward the ceiling lights in the press box.
It’s almost as if they could sense the Yankees were coming.
All it required was a final regular-season weekend full of seeding swaps and planning nightmares. The Indians shifted to the fourth seed from the seventh seed on Sunday, thanks to some late-inning magic against the lowly Pirates. If not for a Blue Jays loss to the Orioles, the Yankees would have tumbled to the eighth seed.
Now, the Indians and Yankees will tangle in Cleveland for a best-of-three opening series. And just in case anyone has forgotten about these teams’ 2007 October clash, know that the midges — I believe these are technically mayflies — have returned, just in time.
Aside from the potential presence of pesky insects, Lindsey, what grabs your attention about this series?
Adler: What is this, Hitchcock?
The first thing that jumps out to me about this series is the pitching. Gerrit Cole versus Shane Bieber in Game 1 is the good stuff. Or, at least, it could be the good stuff. Cole has really settled in, and we saw him step it up big time in most of his postseason outings last year.
On offense, the Yankees have been very boom or bust over the last month, though mostly bust as they head into this series. They’ve struggled against most pitchers they’ve faced, and none of them have been named Shane Bieber.
On the flip side, we sometimes hear about how a guy had a terrible batting practice and then went 4-for-4 later that night. Maybe the Yankees’ month of September was one long batting practice, and Cleveland doesn’t know what it has barreling toward it.
I feel like the Indians made a late push for second in the AL Central, and after trading Mike Clevinger? Can you explain how the Indians got here?
Meisel: Well, if you believe in an offense sandbagging it until the playoffs, let me introduce you to the Indians lineup. They ranked 23rd in batting average and 26th in slugging percentage, and they made more outs on the bases than any other team. And that’s all while boasting perhaps the AL MVP in José Ramírez. (Yeah, yeah, save your heated LeMahieu and Voit takes for the comments section, Yankees fans.)
The Indians have adopted a retool-on-the-fly-so-we-never-have-to-fully-rebuild-like-the-Tigers-or-Orioles strategy. You may have noticed they have traded Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber and now Clevinger all in the last 14 months. As a result, they’re young. They’re prone to offensive outages. But they can still pitch.
The renowned pitching factory has kept them afloat. Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake is plenty familiar with it. He played an instrumental role in the development of Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale and others. (For what it’s worth, Blake’s initial take on this matchup: “That’s 2020 for you.”)
Perhaps that will arm the Yankees with an advantage this week. Then again, the Yankees seem difficult to handicap. They won 10 in a row. Then they lost six of eight to end the season. What’s the deal with these guys?
Adler: I would love to know what the deal is, honestly. They had major issues with every part of their roster for a while at the start of September. Now it just seems to be — for the most part — the offense and the defense?
LeMahieu and Voit have carried them for most of the season offensively. Gio Urshela (hi, Mr. Lindor) and Clint Frazier have had good seasons as well. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton came off the injured list about two weeks ago and basically just jumped back into games because what were they gonna do, build back up taking intrasquad at-bats? So, they’re not even close to themselves at the moment. Gleyber Torres is having a quiet season, along with Aaron Hicks.
As for Gary Sánchez, he had 23 hits in 156 at-bats this year. Ten of them were home runs, so manager Aaron Boone sees him as always having the potential to go deep. Typing out 23 hits in 156 at-bats feels wild, though.
The current issue seems to be that they can get runners on but can’t drive them in. At least not without a home run. I, too, believe that home runs win postseason games — especially ones against someone like Bieber who isn’t going to give you many chances to string hits together (91.1 percent left on base?!) — but the Yankees offense has been exposed quite a bit this week without many home runs.
I know that Blake was a big part of the Cleveland pitching factory, but how closely did he work with the top guys the Yankees can expect to see this week?
Indians ace Shane Bieber won the AL’s pitching “Triple Crown” this season, leading the league with eight wins, 122 strikeouts and a 1.63 ERA. (David Richard / USA Today)
Meisel: Quite a bit. He actually coached Bieber when Bieber spent a summer in the Cape Cod League. He was throwing in the upper 80s at the time with average secondary stuff. You know, exactly the recipe for someone to claim the Cy Young Award five years later.
He worked with Plesac, who would start a decisive Game 3 if necessary, Civale and Triston McKenzie, the wunderkind who will pitch out of the bullpen for this series. Blake texted with McKenzie after he made his big-league debut last month.
Blake could negate the challenges teams are facing with scouting non-division opponents. How weird is it that the Yankees and Indians haven’t battled since August 2019? Teams outside the AL Central haven’t seen this cyborg version of Bieber or the vastly improved Plesac. But maybe Blake’s knowledge will lessen that divide.
It sure doesn’t hurt to have Cole oppose him, either. I’m pretty sure the Cleveland hitters who faced him during the 2018 ALDS will have some chilling flashbacks before Tuesday night. Who else will the Yankees lean on, pitching-wise?
Adler: Expect to see Masahiro Tanaka in Game 2. They have yet to announce who would start Game 3, but it seems to be between J.A. Happ and rookie Deivi García. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery doesn’t seem to know how he’ll be used in the postseason, but he’s struggled a lot this year.
James Paxton is still down with a forearm flexor injury, so he’s not an option.
The bullpen was supposed to be great again this year but it just isn’t. Tommy Kahnle needed Tommy John surgery at the start of the year, and Adam Ottavino is having an inconsistent-at-best, pretty dang rough few weeks. Chad Green has been inconsistent, Aroldis Chapman has been mostly effective — but he didn’t even pitch 12 full innings in the regular season — and Zack Britton is the one true bright spot. If they need long relief, Jonathan Loaisiga can be a pretty nasty weapon.
I am curious how they’ll approach the pitching plan this series. In a five-game series, they need length from their starters. But I think in this series, they can afford to be a bit more aggressive if things go south for Cole or Tanaka. I don’t think they should let it get to a third game. (I say that like it’s easy.)
So is it really just the pitching that got Cleveland to this point? Don’t they need to score some runs even if their starter throws a shutout? Is it just Ramírez? Like, if the Yankees are coming in here with the weaker pitching staff, how worried should they be about the Indians offense?
Meisel: Scoring runs? In this economy? The Indians were held to two runs or fewer in 25 of their 60 games. But! Only once in their last eight games.
Carlos Santana, that guy who started in the All-Star Game and participated in the Home Run Derby last year? He finished the season with a .199/.349/.350 slash line, which actually looks a lot better than it did a week ago. Franmil Reyes, who seemed destined to launch 40-some baseballs into orbit if this were a normal season, contributed a rather quiet .794 OPS with nine homers. (His rendition of Whitney Houston’s “I Will Always Love You,” on the other hand, is anything but quiet or pedestrian.) Francisco Lindor could use a productive October to wash away his unspectacular season, especially if it was his last in an Indians uniform. Cleveland has received next to nothing at the plate from its outfield or the catching position.
So, that all leaves them with the following formula for the postseason: Pitch like crazy and deliver a timely hit here and there. It worked in 2016. But 2020, in so, so many ways, is its own animal.
Adler: That’s the Yankees’ formula, too. I feel like I learned very little from the regular season (a thought I have undoubtedly expressed too many times already), and I’m just going to wait and see how they match up here.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Indians completely shut down the Yankees with their pitching. It wouldn’t shock me if the Yankees won on a couple of timely hits. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees were the first to light up Bieber. It wouldn’t surprise me if the comatose Indians offense chased out Cole early.
The fun thing is, these teams haven’t seen each other yet. Against what felt like long odds early in the pandemic and early in the season, they’re on to the postseason.
Meisel: All of these best-of-three matchups seem like coin flips given what we know about baseball and small samples. And with these two Jekyll-and-Hyde clubs in a super-short series, attempting to predict the outcome is a futile effort. The Yankees could sweep. The Indians could sweep. Either team could emerge victorious in three games. Everyone could succumb to swarms of midges. Everything’s on the table.