Cleveland Sports Forum

The Corey Kluber Trade: Reaction & Analysis
By Mark Polishuk | December 15, 2019 at 6:30pm CDT

Over a year of trade rumors surrounding Corey Kluber came to an end this afternoon, as the Indians dealt their longtime ace to the Rangers in exchange for outfielder Delino DeShields and right-hander Emmanuel Clase (plus $500K, in a split of the $1MM assignment bonus Kluber received in the event of a trade). Here are some of the early takes on the trade, plus some of the potential aftershocks that might yet be forthcoming…

Kluber’s struggles and drop in velocity at the start of the 2019 season are a concern, ESPN’s Keith Law writes in a subscriber-only piece, while Clase is a very intriguing young reliever. That said, Cleveland’s overall trade return is “so light compared to what Kluber was as recently as 2018 that it feels like this was a move to dump salary rather than a way to rebuild with younger players.” Kluber is owed $17.5MM in 2020 and is controlled via an $18MM club option for 2021 (with a $1MM buyout).
What the Tribe will do with this newfound payroll space is on the minds of Marc Carig and Jason Lloyd as part of The Athletic’s writers roundtable of opinions on the trade (subscription required). The club could be content to just pocket the savings as part of a more thorough rebuild that could include a Francisco Lindor trade this winter. But, with the Indians still in position to contend within a weak AL Central, dealing Kluber could create enough payroll relief to make the team even less likely to move Lindor in the short term, and spend the money saved on Kluber to address other needs. “Given the number of teams that were involved in the Kluber rumors, it’s hard to dispute that this was the best return they [the Indians] could fetch,” Lloyd writes, with Ken Rosenthal also noting that Cleveland might have been concerned that Kluber’s value could further decline prior to the 2020 trade deadline.
Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti discussed the deal with reporters (including The Athletic’s Zack Meisel and MLB.com’s Mandy Bell) and addressed the “variety of different packages” offered by “a lot of teams that had interest in Corey.” One of the factors that helped sway the talks in the Rangers’ direction was that Clase and DeShields are “two players that could come back and help us in 2020 and help us try to sustain the level of competitiveness we’ve had over the last seven years.” Even in the short amount of time since the trade was announced, Antonetti revealed that some teams had already called to ask if Clase was available in a follow-up deal.
The Angels were one of the teams known to have interest in Kluber, though Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (Twitter link) reports that the Indians wanted highly-touted outfield prospect Brandon Marsh and another top-10 prospect from the Halos’ farm system. It was a significant ask, given how Marsh is widely considered to be the Angels’ second-best prospect (after Jo Adell) and is ranked by Fangraphs as the 74th-best prospect in all of baseball. If Cleveland was seeking for such a return for Kluber from the various teams in the hunt, Fletcher notes that it could be a sign that “they have a much higher opinion of Clase than most of baseball.”
While DeShields’ lack of hitting kept him from being an everyday player in Arlington, his departure creates more questions within an already uncertain Rangers outfield mix. Texas GM Jon Daniels told MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan and other reporters that the Rangers will look for an experienced center field through either a trade or a signing, though for now, utilityman Danny Santana is penciled in as the club’s center fielder. Over his career, Santana has posted subpar fielding numbers (-7.2 UZR/150, -10 Defensive Runs Saved) over 1108 innings as a center fielder, and he has more overall value to Texas a player who can be shifted around the diamond rather than locked into an ill-fitting position.
Daniels said his front office first discussed Kluber with the Indians earlier in the offseason, and only circled back after the Winter Meetings, and after the Rangers came up short in their attempts to sign Anthony Rendon. Negotiations became more serious once Texas agreed to move Clase as part of the deal, speaking again to how highly Cleveland values Clase’s ability.

How much is DeShields making? No idea why the Indians wanted him unless they were forced to take him.

However, fully evaluating the trade means seeing what the Indians intend to do with their newfound financial flexibility

That's the crucial question. I'm excited about Class A as his name is pronounced but how long will his arm hold up? and most vitally are the Indians planning on spending their savings or pocketing it?

He's making 2.4 mill this year. Arbitration next year. Then a free agent.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cleveland-i ... lds-14172/

It will be interesting if Kluber comes back to anything resembling his former self. He pitched a lot of innings for the Tribe. He may not even be a top 5 starter on the current staff. Of course other pitchers came to life in their late 30's, but almost all are linked to PEDs. If the kid they got turns into a dominant closer for 3-5 seasons, this could go down as a great trade - but as always, that is a big IF.

The Indians aren't exactly careless traders.

In fact their reputation around the industry is the exact opposite.

So, to me, that points to this being just step 1 of something.

On Deshields and money.

I don't understand the ins and out of guaranteed money but why not just dump him?

He made 1.9M last season. He is in his second year of arbitration and is estimated to make 2.4M this year.

Why not just decline to offer arbitration and let him become a FA?

Unless adding Deshields is related to some other transaction in the offing it's hard to see what he brings them.

Kluber is such a good guy; hard worker; great role model; really sorry to see him go. But that's baseball. Is it a salary dump? Some "experts" say so. Maybe.

I don't have the ability to read KenM's post's but have to take a wild guess that his sudden return is somehow related to the Kluber trade and could just possibly reflect a negative interpretation.

Maybe they can flip Deshields for a second baseman.

Just was looking at Deshields stats. A whopping 4 HRs last season with the juiced baseball. 18 HRs career(5 years)

Just had some popcorn shrimp for lunch. Popcorn centerfielders is someone we don't need.

civ ollilavad wrote:Unless adding Deshields is related to some other transaction in the offing it's hard to see what he brings them.

Kluber is such a good guy; hard worker; great role model; really sorry to see him go. But that's baseball. Is it a salary dump? Some "experts" say so. Maybe.

I don't have the ability to read KenM's post's but have to take a wild guess that his sudden return is somehow related to the Kluber trade and could just possibly reflect a negative interpretation.

DeShields was a +6 defensive runs saved (that is elite) last year and of course steals bases. I think we did notice the Indians place more emphasis on defense and speed (Mercado the prime example) to support their pitching.

DeShields hit .274 with a .791 OPS vs left handers as a right handed bat. So his role is clear. I bet he plays CF vs. lefties with Mercado sliding over to LF or RF

From unsung to Cy Young, Corey Kluber leaves behind a lasting legacy in Cleveland

Zack Meisel 6h ago 9
CLEVELAND — There’s one game that epitomizes Corey Kluber’s tenure in Cleveland and his standing in Indians history.

On May 13, 2015, Kluber tallied 18 strikeouts in an eight-inning effort against the Cardinals. Terry Francona watched much of Kluber’s mastery from his office, having been ejected in the fourth inning.

Kluber limited St. Louis to one hit, and he didn’t issue any walks, a customary showcase of his precision. His strikeout total matched Bob Feller’s franchise record for a nine-inning game, set 77 years earlier. (Feller walked seven and allowed four runs on seven hits in that contest.)

And in attendance that night at Progressive Field was none other than Feller’s widow, Anne. Before the game, she cut the red ribbon to unveil a new ballpark exhibit full of artifacts and memorabilia from Feller’s career and life, relocated from the defunct Bob Feller Museum in Van Meter, Iowa.

Then, Anne watched Kluber offer his best impersonation of Feller, perhaps the only pitcher in team history with superior credentials. Kluber donated one of the strikeout balls and loaned his uniform from that night to the Feller shrine.

Kluber rarely spoke above a whisper or revealed any emotion. He never overpowered hitters with radar-gun-melting fastballs. And yet, he pieced together one of the greatest résumés of any player in Indians history, his nine-year stay filled with hardware and gaudy numbers.

Francona called Kluber after the club’s trade of the 33-year-old to the Rangers on Sunday. “I’m not sure what to say,” Francona told him.

“The business part of the game happens, and it’s hard to know what is right to say,” Francona said. “But I don’t think it’s ever wrong to tell somebody ‘thank you’ and that you care about them and that you will continue to care about them. But it’s not the easiest conversation, that’s for sure.”

In July 2010, the Indians assigned two scouts to observe Kluber’s outings with Class AA San Antonio. The Indians liked Kluber’s strikeout rate, but the rest of his minor-league numbers left much to be desired, which explained why Indians executives couldn’t locate his name on any top prospects list.

Still, it’s not as though they could demand a bounty of talent from the Padres in the three-way swap with St. Louis; the Indians were only parting with the final two months of Jake Westbrook’s contract. Kluber essentially came to Cleveland as a warm body in a trade for an impending free agent on a lousy team.

When he learned of the trade, Kluber called his parents and relayed the news in typical, stoic fashion. His father, Jim, a Mayfield High School graduate, was ecstatic.

Ruben Niebla, now the Indians’ assistant pitching coach, can recall Kluber as a Triple-A pitcher who routinely struggled to survive five innings. Kluber required knee surgery early in 2013 after a diaper-changing mishap. It seemed like a bizarre, costly setback after brief, unspectacular major-league cameos the previous two years.

Kluber labored through spring training but refused to cite his recovery from the operation as an excuse.

“I thought that was pretty cool that he wasn’t going to even bring it up, even though it might have hurt him moving forward,” Francona said. “I thought he was situated to be extremely productive. I saw his stuff, I saw the competitiveness, I saw his clock, everything — his demeanor. I just thought, ‘There’s no reason this guy can’t be ultra successful.'”

Kluber quickly proved he belonged in the rotation, and the following season, he captured his first Cy Young Award. After that, the Indians inked him to a five-year extension that included two club options.

From 2014 to 2018, Kluber’s five full seasons in Cleveland, he posted a 2.85 ERA with 17 complete games and seven shutouts, 10.1 strikeouts and only 1.8 walks per nine innings. He finished in the top three in the AL Cy Young balloting in four of those five years and, including postseason play, logged more innings than any pitcher in the majors.

In fact, at the start of the 2018 season, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger made a pact to monitor Kluber’s workload and attempt to keep pace. They figured he’d wind up near the 220 mark (he ended up with a league-leading 215). Clevinger reached 200 for the first time. Bauer would have eclipsed that total had a line drive to the ankle not cost him six weeks of action in August and September.

Niebla referred to Kluber as “a big piece of our culture when it comes to preparation. He’s an example that we can use.” Josh Tomlin, Kluber’s teammate and locker mate for much of the past decade, noted how younger starting pitchers mimicked Kluber’s routines and mannerisms.

“You can obviously go look at it and say, ‘I want to pitch like him,’” Tomlin said last year. “Of course, everybody does. But what a lot of people don’t understand is it’s the things he does prior to that start — it’s mirrored every fifth day. Every day, it’s the same thing. He knows how his body is going to feel that fifth day. Guys notice that. They start to get in a better routine, better preparation, and once you do that, you’re set up for success.

“A bunch of guys follow him. And rightfully so. They should.”

There’s an alternate universe in which the Indians win the 2016 World Series and Kluber is hailed not just as a two-time Cy Young Award winner, one of the best pitchers in franchise history and a robot that rarely needed a recharge but also as a postseason hero.

His 2016 playoff run was the stuff of legend. He posted a 0.89 ERA in his first five starts, three of them coming on short rest, as he carried the Indians’ limping rotation to within one win of a championship. He faltered in Game 7, though he didn’t factor into the decision, with the game persisting into extra innings. If the Indians emerged victorious that night, many would gloss over his three, rough outings in the 2017 and ’18 ALDS, instead opting to fixate on his deeds from 2016.

Last spring, Kluber occupied his usual spot in the corner of the Indians locker room in Arizona. His closest colleagues, however, were absent. Tomlin, Yan Gomes, Michael Brantley and Cody Allen had all joined new teams. Kluber conceded it was a bit strange. He knew he wasn’t destined to remain in Cleveland for the rest of his career, especially given the frequency with which his name surfaced in trade rumors.

Certainly, this wasn’t the ideal conclusion to his decade-long tenure in the organization, but it’s pretty rare for a player to script the perfect closing chapter. Kluber was the Indians’ Opening Day starter in each of the past five years. In team history, only Stan Coveleski has mounted a streak that long (he had six total, five in a row). Feller made seven Opening Day starts for the Indians, with a tour of duty wedged in the middle of those honors. CC Sabathia and Bob Lemon also made five, though not in succession.

When assessing the top pitchers in Indians history, that’s the sort of company Kluber will keep: names and faces found in bronze in Heritage Park.

This is from FanGraphs

Nobody Really Wanted Corey Kluber
by Craig Edwards
December 16, 2019

Since the start of the 2016 season, Corey Kluber has been baseball’s sixth-best pitcher by WAR. That’s despite making just seven starts last year. Even over the last three seasons, he’s still in the top 10 and just two years ago, his 5.5 WAR ranked eighth. One season lost to injury later, Corey Kluber’s trade value plummeted. Despite no strong trade offers, an indication of Kluber’s perceived low value around the league, Cleveland didn’t want to keep their former ace and dealt him for the best offer available to the Texas Rangers. Here’s the deal, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal.

Rangers Receive:
RHP Corey Kluber
Indians Receive:
RHP Emmanuel Clase
OF Delino DeShields Jr.
To help frame Kluber’s talent as it stands right now, here are the righty’s ZiPS projections as supplied by Dan Szymborski:

ZiPS Projection – Corey Kluber
Year W L ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2020 11 7 3.98 24 24 144.7 136 20 38 145 122 3.1
2021 10 7 4.07 21 21 128.3 123 18 34 125 120 2.7

Kluber will be 34 years old in April. Even before the 2019 season began, there were questions about his effectiveness. He posted that 5.5 WAR season is 2018, but his velocity and swinging strike dropped in 2019. His 2017 represented a career year, but going from a 34% strikeout rate that season to a 26% strikeout rate in 2018, along with slightly diminished velocity moving into his mid-30s, likely prevented Cleveland from trading him last offseason when no team was willing to blow them away. While it might have been reasonable to expect a slightly diminished Kluber in 2019, predicting he would be hit by a comebacker that would break his forearm is more of a fluke.

An oblique injury during rehab meant that Kluber didn’t make it back to the majors, taking his on-field expectations and trade value to new lows.

If we were to look at Kluber’s value through the lens of the projections, the return for Kluber is light, but not unconscionably so. Emmanuel Clase is an exciting reliever. Ben Clemens wrote about him in August, after he threw this 101 mph cutter:


He is still just a reliever, though. He was graded as a 40+ FV player on our 2019 midseason update, and Eric Longenhagen told me he’ll probably be a 45 this offseason. Clase will be 22 years old in March and will be making the minimum salary through 2022. Generically, a prospect like Clase would be worth around $4 million or so in present value. Kluber’s projections minus his salary above provide a $16 million surplus in present value. We could be generous and assign Clase a bit of extra value for having already making the majors, making his success more likely, but we’ll probably still come up short relative to Kluber’s projected value.

There were reports that Cleveland had asked the Angels for Brandon Marsh, a 50 FV prospect who is in the top 100 on THE BOARD. Looking just through the prism of prospect surplus value, Marsh is too much to give up for Kluber based on Kluber’s expected performance. Cleveland perhaps should have gotten a little bit more objectively, but they were never going to get a haul dealing him this winter. Claiming Cleveland should have gotten more because Kluber’s trade value is high is question-begging.

The question actually raised by this deal is if Kluber’s current trade value is so low, why on earth would Cleveland bother to deal him now? The answer likely isn’t a great one for Cleveland as an organization.

After consistently keeping payroll in the bottom quarter of major league teams for the early part of the decade, Cleveland jumped close to league average after making the World Series in 2016. Attendance rose by roughly 400,000 fans after the payroll increase and the team kept most of those gains in 2018 as payroll remained steady. Last offseason, the club dropped payroll by more than $20 million and failed to address glaring weaknesses in the outfield; attendance at Progressive Field dipped by 200,000 and Cleveland barely missed the playoffs. While the offseason isn’t complete, the team is down another $20 million-plus in payroll thus far.

What’s most bizarre about this Kluber trade is that if he weren’t already on Cleveland, the team would be an ideal landing spot for him. They are a small-market club with a good team trying to make the playoffs. Taking on a one-year commitment for $17.5 million and having an option for a second year at a similar cost for an ace one season removed from a very good season feels like a no-brainer. It’s a low-risk, high-reward deal that a team like Cleveland should be all over. Kluber might not pay dividends, but if he recaptures some of his prior form, it turns Cleveland from a good team into a great one. If he’s good, but Cleveland is not, then his trade value next season will be well above where it is right now. This deal says that either Cleveland has no faith in Kluber as a pitcher or that cutting payroll is more important than trying to win. Even if it is the former, there’s still arguably a chance that Kluber contributes next season. If it’s the latter, and last offseason fails to provide Cleveland with the benefit of the doubt, that’s just bad for baseball.

Of course, another ideal fit for Kluber is the Texas Rangers. Kluber’s salary goes up $1 million with the trade to $18.5 million, but that’s basically what Madison Bumgarner just received, except for five seasons. The team option is now a vesting one should Kluber get to 160 innings and doesn’t end the season on the injured list, though if that happens, the option would look like a good deal. The vesting option shouldn’t lower Kluber’s trade value as the innings requirement still serves to raise the floor of the deal by decreasing the chances of being stuck with two poor seasons. Texas isn’t good right now, but they have a rotation that doesn’t need Kluber, with Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson, and Jordan Lyles as their top four. They could have gotten another low-end starter and still had one of the better rotations in the game. That low-end starter might increase the team’s floor, but for a club trying to get back into contention in what should be a tough division, raising the ceiling might be more important.

The Rangers still have a lot of work to do on the position-player side, but they now have one of the 10-best pitching staffs in baseball. Giving up Clase and a near-replacement-level outfielder in Deshields is a hard move not to make. A lot of other teams might have been able to put together similar offers, but it is possible many systems, like the lower-level heavy Angels, just couldn’t match up with the 2020 value Cleveland was looking for.

That helps explain why Texas might have been able to pull off this deal where other teams couldn’t, but it doesn’t do much to help understand why Cleveland made this deal at this time when Kluber’s value to them should have been much higher than what he returned in trade. What ended up being good for the Rangers also seems pretty bad for baseball.

Seems simple to me:

1. The loss of Sherman as co-owner hurt. So the Indians look for ways to add this offseason without adding payroll.
2. They do like Clase and have a role for DeShields
3. Clev, Bieber, Carrasco, Plesac, Civale, (Plutko)
4. I might add, whomever saw Plesac, Civale and Plutko last season? So who is next in line below the radar in the system that they like????
5. Tampa won 97 with less payroll. This can be done.

Joe Smith - 2 years at $8 million (36 years old)
Sergio Romo 1 year at $5 million

Nowadays even relievers like these dinosaurs have more value than they used to.