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Posted: Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:48 pm
Cleveland Indians: Can we start talking pennant race because of Terry Francona? — Terry Pluto
Updated 8:55 AM; Today 5:00 AM
By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer
For the longest time, I have been writing the Indians were a long shot to win the Central Division. And I also wrote they had long odds of winning one of the two American League Wild Card playoff spots.
My guess is I had a lot of company on June 3, when the Indians had a 29-30 record and were 11 1/2 games behind the Twins in the Central Division. The Tribe was actually tied with the Chicago White Sox for second place.
The Twins were 40-18 on that date. Since then, they are 15-14.
The Tribe is 19-8.
As July 4th passed, the Indians have moved to 48-38 heading into Saturday. They have two games left before the All-Star break.
They still trail the Twins by 6 1/2 games heading into Saturday, but history tells us something about the Tribe under Terry Francona.
This is their time of year.
Consider the following:
1. Counting their current record, the Indians have a .535 winning percentage before the All-Star break since 2013, Francona’s first year in Cleveland.
2. After the All-Star break, the Indians have a .600 winning percentage.
3. Only in 2016 did the Indians have a better record before the All-Star Game (52-36) than after (42-31).
So now I have to reconsider the Indians.
1. Unless they have a complete collapse the rest of this month, it makes no sense to trade Brad Hand. The All-Star closer is critical to catching the Twins or securing a playoff spot. The elite bullpen gives the Tribe a chance to catch the Twins.
2. As I’ve written before, Hand is on a team-friendly deal through 2020 with a team option for 2021. He’s 29 years old. The 3-time All-Star is 23-of-24 converting saves and he leads a Tribe bullpen that has the second lowest ERA in the American League.
3. I’d only trade Trevor Bauer if he’d bring a young future star who could help the team right now – such as Yankees outfielder and former Indian Clint Frazier.
4. In the off-season, the Indians looked at several trade offers for Corey Kluber and Bauer. They decided to keep their starters. Francona said in spring training, “I never thought we’d trade a starter” in the off-season. That may carry over through the July 31 trading deadline.
5. The pitching is getting stronger. Mike Clevinger is finally healthy. Shane Bieber (7-3, 3.74 ERA) is developing into an elite starter and was named to the All-Star team on Friday. Rookie Zach Plesac (3-3, 4.00 ERA) has had two consecutive rough starts, but he’s talented.
6. Carlos Carrasco (blood disorder) and Kluber (broken arm) could be back on the mound this year, but it’s still too early to know. It’s not wise to count on them, given the severity of their physical problems. Danny Salazar (sore shoulder) is taking some steps toward coming back in rehab appearances, but he’s had so many setbacks that I have major doubts about him staying healthy even for a few months.
7. In the last 15 games, Jason Kipnis (.315, .918 OPS) and Jose Ramirez (.281, .885 OPS) have come to life. If the two veterans can finish strong, the Indians are a real threat to catch the Twins.
8. The Indians are 3-3 vs. the Twins this season with 13 games left. That series continues with three games at Progressive Field July 12-15, right after the All-Star break. Yes, the Indians have big regular-season games – unlike the last three seasons when they dominated the Central Division.
Jake Bauers is batting .274 over his last 30 games – after hitting .214 in his first 50. Photo by Joshua Gunter / cleveland.com
cleveland.com
Jake Bauers is batting .274 over his last 30 games – after hitting .214 in his first 50. Photo by Joshua Gunter / cleveland.com
WHY THE SECOND-HALF RISE?
1. The Indians prefer to open seasons with some of their best prospects in the minors. Some fans will say it’s to stop the arbitration clock (service time) from starting. But the Tribe has seen several young players have their confidence chewed up by what Francona calls “April in Cleveland.”
2. Yandy Diaz (now with Tampa Bay) was one of the most natural and poised young hitters to be with the Tribe in the last decade. But he opened the 2017 season with Cleveland. He batted .203 with only one extra base hit in 71 plate appearances before being sent back to the minors. The cold weather and first taste of big league pressure is a problem for many young hitters.
3. The Indians have tried to study team chemistry analytically and haven’t come up with any definite conclusions. This just know Francona has a way of building it over the course of the season. The numbers prove that.
4. Francona always insists “every year is different, every team has to find its own identity.” The 2019 team had the biggest roster turnover in his seven seasons. Then add in the major injuries to starting pitchers. It’s remarkable what they have achieved to this point.
5. The front office is smart. It tends to make small trades that pay off big in the Tribe scheme of team building. They brought in castoffs such as Tyler Clippard, Oliver Perez, A.J. Cole, Nick Goody, Nick Wittgren and Tyler Olson to bolster the bullpen. All of those guys were either acquired on waiver deals or signed to minor league contracts.
6. Patience does pay off. The Indians traded Erik Gonzalez for Jordan Luplow, a career .302 Class AAA hitter for the Pirates. Luplow struggled in spring training. He opened the season with nine strikeouts in his first 18 at bats. He was sent briefly back to the minors, returned and has been productive: .255 (.832 OPS) with 9 home runs and 32 RBI. He is a .313 hitter (1.121 OPS) vs. lefties.
7. Jake Bauers was close to being sent to the minors, but the Indians decided to stay with the 23-year-old outfielder. In his first 50 games, he batted .215 with 4 HR. In his last 30 games, it’s .274 with 6 HR.
8. The Indians believe the best way to do it is for a player to open the season in the minors, play well and then come to Cleveland when feeling confident. They took at approach with Oscar Mercado, who has been lightning to the offense.
9. Pitchers Plesac, Jefry Rodriguez, Adam Plutko and Aaron Civale have come up from the minors to help the rotation at various points in the year. The farm system helps the strong performance after the All-Star break.
10. One more reason for the annual second-half rise: The front office has made mid-season trades to help, including Andrew Miller (2016) and Jay Bruce (2017).
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Updated 8:55 AM; Today 5:00 AM
By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer
For the longest time, I have been writing the Indians were a long shot to win the Central Division. And I also wrote they had long odds of winning one of the two American League Wild Card playoff spots.
My guess is I had a lot of company on June 3, when the Indians had a 29-30 record and were 11 1/2 games behind the Twins in the Central Division. The Tribe was actually tied with the Chicago White Sox for second place.
The Twins were 40-18 on that date. Since then, they are 15-14.
The Tribe is 19-8.
As July 4th passed, the Indians have moved to 48-38 heading into Saturday. They have two games left before the All-Star break.
They still trail the Twins by 6 1/2 games heading into Saturday, but history tells us something about the Tribe under Terry Francona.
This is their time of year.
Consider the following:
1. Counting their current record, the Indians have a .535 winning percentage before the All-Star break since 2013, Francona’s first year in Cleveland.
2. After the All-Star break, the Indians have a .600 winning percentage.
3. Only in 2016 did the Indians have a better record before the All-Star Game (52-36) than after (42-31).
So now I have to reconsider the Indians.
1. Unless they have a complete collapse the rest of this month, it makes no sense to trade Brad Hand. The All-Star closer is critical to catching the Twins or securing a playoff spot. The elite bullpen gives the Tribe a chance to catch the Twins.
2. As I’ve written before, Hand is on a team-friendly deal through 2020 with a team option for 2021. He’s 29 years old. The 3-time All-Star is 23-of-24 converting saves and he leads a Tribe bullpen that has the second lowest ERA in the American League.
3. I’d only trade Trevor Bauer if he’d bring a young future star who could help the team right now – such as Yankees outfielder and former Indian Clint Frazier.
4. In the off-season, the Indians looked at several trade offers for Corey Kluber and Bauer. They decided to keep their starters. Francona said in spring training, “I never thought we’d trade a starter” in the off-season. That may carry over through the July 31 trading deadline.
5. The pitching is getting stronger. Mike Clevinger is finally healthy. Shane Bieber (7-3, 3.74 ERA) is developing into an elite starter and was named to the All-Star team on Friday. Rookie Zach Plesac (3-3, 4.00 ERA) has had two consecutive rough starts, but he’s talented.
6. Carlos Carrasco (blood disorder) and Kluber (broken arm) could be back on the mound this year, but it’s still too early to know. It’s not wise to count on them, given the severity of their physical problems. Danny Salazar (sore shoulder) is taking some steps toward coming back in rehab appearances, but he’s had so many setbacks that I have major doubts about him staying healthy even for a few months.
7. In the last 15 games, Jason Kipnis (.315, .918 OPS) and Jose Ramirez (.281, .885 OPS) have come to life. If the two veterans can finish strong, the Indians are a real threat to catch the Twins.
8. The Indians are 3-3 vs. the Twins this season with 13 games left. That series continues with three games at Progressive Field July 12-15, right after the All-Star break. Yes, the Indians have big regular-season games – unlike the last three seasons when they dominated the Central Division.
Jake Bauers is batting .274 over his last 30 games – after hitting .214 in his first 50. Photo by Joshua Gunter / cleveland.com
cleveland.com
Jake Bauers is batting .274 over his last 30 games – after hitting .214 in his first 50. Photo by Joshua Gunter / cleveland.com
WHY THE SECOND-HALF RISE?
1. The Indians prefer to open seasons with some of their best prospects in the minors. Some fans will say it’s to stop the arbitration clock (service time) from starting. But the Tribe has seen several young players have their confidence chewed up by what Francona calls “April in Cleveland.”
2. Yandy Diaz (now with Tampa Bay) was one of the most natural and poised young hitters to be with the Tribe in the last decade. But he opened the 2017 season with Cleveland. He batted .203 with only one extra base hit in 71 plate appearances before being sent back to the minors. The cold weather and first taste of big league pressure is a problem for many young hitters.
3. The Indians have tried to study team chemistry analytically and haven’t come up with any definite conclusions. This just know Francona has a way of building it over the course of the season. The numbers prove that.
4. Francona always insists “every year is different, every team has to find its own identity.” The 2019 team had the biggest roster turnover in his seven seasons. Then add in the major injuries to starting pitchers. It’s remarkable what they have achieved to this point.
5. The front office is smart. It tends to make small trades that pay off big in the Tribe scheme of team building. They brought in castoffs such as Tyler Clippard, Oliver Perez, A.J. Cole, Nick Goody, Nick Wittgren and Tyler Olson to bolster the bullpen. All of those guys were either acquired on waiver deals or signed to minor league contracts.
6. Patience does pay off. The Indians traded Erik Gonzalez for Jordan Luplow, a career .302 Class AAA hitter for the Pirates. Luplow struggled in spring training. He opened the season with nine strikeouts in his first 18 at bats. He was sent briefly back to the minors, returned and has been productive: .255 (.832 OPS) with 9 home runs and 32 RBI. He is a .313 hitter (1.121 OPS) vs. lefties.
7. Jake Bauers was close to being sent to the minors, but the Indians decided to stay with the 23-year-old outfielder. In his first 50 games, he batted .215 with 4 HR. In his last 30 games, it’s .274 with 6 HR.
8. The Indians believe the best way to do it is for a player to open the season in the minors, play well and then come to Cleveland when feeling confident. They took at approach with Oscar Mercado, who has been lightning to the offense.
9. Pitchers Plesac, Jefry Rodriguez, Adam Plutko and Aaron Civale have come up from the minors to help the rotation at various points in the year. The farm system helps the strong performance after the All-Star break.
10. One more reason for the annual second-half rise: The front office has made mid-season trades to help, including Andrew Miller (2016) and Jay Bruce (2017).
View Comments (118)