Cleveland Sports Forum

Ain't that nice!!

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2595 ... alf-strain

Glad we dealt Erik Gonzalez. Now we can rely on Max Moroff at SS on opening day. Nice start to the season!

Francisco Lindor’s injury a reminder of his immense worth to the Indians and their championship hopes


By T.J. Zuppe Feb 8, 2019 7

CLEVELAND​ — Max​ Moroff. Yu​ Chang. Eric Stamets.

Wasn’t Omar​ Vizquel just in​ town?

The list of​ Indians​ candidates to​ immediately replace​​ Francisco Lindor doesn’t leap off the page quite like their star’s ability to flash range on a grounder between third and short. It doesn’t leave you with the breathtaking feeling instilled by one of his visits to the lower porch in right field. It doesn’t invite a smile to your face to match Lindor’s vintage grin.

The thought of anyone else manning shortstop in three years is enough to cause Tribe fans to lose sleep at night. They weren’t remotely prepared to imagine life without Lindor for the next two months due to an offseason strain of his right calf.

[Dog sipping coffee while the room burns around him dot gif]

In fairness, if there’s a time to miss an extended period, anything prior to April beats the alternative. And if we attempt to maintain that same levelheaded approach for juuuussst a bit longer (we’ll soon get to the panic), little can prepare any squad for losing an MVP-caliber player. After all, there’s a reason Lindor’s name sits near the top of every WAR leaderboard this side of the Milky Way, and any team that lost a player of his ability for any amount of time would be in trouble.

But news of Lindor’s moderate strain — he suffered the injury while going about land-based agility training in Orlando, Fla., last weekend — highlights just how reliant the Indians are on the two-way star, and just how an extended period without him could cripple an offense without a lot of proven production beyond the names at the top of the lineup.

On one hand, thankfully, the early prognosis pushes the end of his timetable up against the start of the season. A productive rehab over the next seven to nine weeks and a return to the lineup within the first month mitigates the anxiety.

But how often do things go perfectly? How frequently have players experienced setbacks? Even recently, we’ve witnessed Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller or Lonnie Chisenhall spend more time on the injured list than was previously expected. And even if we set aside anything the team could have done differently in those situations, injuries are often unpredictable monsters, each with their own set of unique circumstances.

Even the most delicate and informed handling of any sort of ailment guarantees little.

Adding to the uncertainty, players respond in different ways to the game of catch up that missing spring training creates. Even the most talented stars are conditioned to prepare their bodies in a unique way for the upcoming grind. Maybe Lindor will be unaffected. Maybe the lack of typical buildup and inability to compile March at-bats under the Arizona sun can be replicated in other ways. Maybe we’ll be laughing at panic-fueled columns like this after Lindor returns in mid-April and establishes another MVP-level start to the campaign.

(And we can certainly all agree that Lindor’s 25-year-old frame is a little better equipped to recover and adapt at a quicker rate than your average human.)

Really, though, as easy as it is to picture worst-case scenarios, there’s also a real chance Lindor is back in a timely manner, prepared to continue his assault on the league. In a best-case scenario, he might miss only the first week or two of the regular season. The injury, at the risk of sounding extremely hyperbolic, is more of a gateway to readdress a key point about the team’s current situation.

The Indians are in an extremely desirable spot. They’ve collected two of the game’s top position players. They’ve compiled one of the best (if not the best) starting pitching staff in baseball, with many still under control for the next several years. They’ve got one of baseball’s better relievers lingering at the end of games. Their core is as talented and coveted as any.

Quite a bit had to go right from a scouting, development and talent standpoint to create a team that still owns some of the game’s better odds to win the World Series, and it’s difficult to envision that serving as an easy blueprint to just re-create at a moment’s notice. That’s why it’s paramount to take advantage of that by supplementing the current core in the best ways possible, not knowing when or if a more serious injury could seriously derail aspirations.

Instead, under a mandate from above to get their finances in a more manageable spot, the Indians head into 2019 with a payroll below where they were at a year ago. They’ve reshuffled their organization to bring in some semi-intriguing youth but seemingly haven’t done enough to offset the loss of reliable offense. Their current course forces them to rely heavily on Lindor and José Ramírez to carry a lineup full of questions, hoping they’ll discover a few answers along the way.

That’s not to say Jake Bauers won’t blossom into a 20-20 threat. It’s not impossible for Greg Allen to continue his second-half surge from last year, or Jordan Luplow to demonstrate why he put up such strong numbers in the minors. Matt Joyce, with a healthier outlook, could rediscover his above-average offensive profile from years past and become a sturdy contributor against right-handed pitching.

But there’s a lot of maybe and might be in there, far too much to speak with much certainty beyond the cleanup spot on a team with World Series aspirations. That’s … less than ideal.

When the game plan is tied to relying on your two best bats to almost exclusively do the heavy lifting, there’s risk involved, something that can be managed by improving the depth and surrounding your stars with more proven options. Friday’s news should serve as a catalyst to take advantage of the remaining free-agent depth lingering around the talent pool prior to the start of camp.

Time will tell if it will.

When all is said and done, Lindor’s calf strain may be nothing more than a tiny speed bump along what transitions into a smooth road fit for cruise control. But it’s also an important reminder of the delicate nature of a championship chase and why it’s important to capitalize on each and every try.

Projecting the Cleveland Indians’ Opening Day 25-man roster

Zack Meisel Feb 11, 2019 39
CLEVELAND​ — For​ the first​ time in several years,​ this exercise is​ challenging. The winter​ exodus​ of Michael​ Brantley, Andrew​​ Miller, Cody Allen, Lonnie Chisenhall and Yan Gomes has altered the state of the Indians’ roster. Francisco Lindor’s injury has clouded the Opening Day infield arrangement.

Typically during the Terry Francona era, there has been a competition for a bullpen spot or two, the utility role and maybe the last entry in the starting rotation. This year, place your bets on which seven or eight relievers will make the club. Close your eyes and point to four or five outfielder names. The starting shortstop could be one of four or five in-house candidates or someone lying on a hammock in Bora Bora, waiting for a phone call from his agent.

Let’s take a guess as to which 25 players will travel to Minnesota for the Indians’ sure-to-be-played-and-definitely-not-snowed-out season-opening series against the Twins at Target Field in late March. (Note: We’re using FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which combine Steamer and ZiPS projections, based on FanGraphs’ playing time forecasts.)

Starting pitchers
Corey Kluber
This name might not have appeared in such a projection back in December, when it seemed inevitable that Kluber would don Dodger blue or Reds, um, red. Instead, he remains the anchor of one of the league’s most formidable starting rotations, since none of those National League clubs would pony up the necessary haul to meet the Indians’ lofty demands. Kluber finished third in the AL Cy Young balloting last season. He also turns 33 in April, his strikeout rate tumbled last season and his fastball velocity dipped in September. Can Kluber stall Father Time, or might he wind up the third-best hurler on this staff?

FanGraphs projection: 3.46 ERA, 4.8 WAR

Carlos Carrasco
Carrasco will turn 32 one week before Opening Day, and the Indians now control him — at a more-than-reasonable, wait-why-are-you-agreeing-to-this rate — through his age-36 season if they so desire. He’s incredibly consistent and can shoulder the load if he dodges freak injuries, like a line drive to the hand or a line drive to the head or a line drive to the elbow.

2015: 3.63 ERA, 5.9% walk rate, 23.7% strikeout rate, .646 opponent OPS
2016: 3.32 ERA, 5.7% walk rate, 19.4% strikeout rate, .711 opponent OPS
2017: 3.29 ERA, 5.8% walk rate, 22.6% strikeout rate, .674 opponent OPS
2018: 3.38 ERA, 5.5% walk rate, 24.0% strikeout rate, .669 opponent OPS

FanGraphs projection: 3.41 ERA, 4.5 WAR

Trevor Bauer
According to Trevor Bauer, Trevor Bauer was destined for a Cy Young Award last season until Jose Abreu cracked Trevor Bauer’s right fibula with a line drive in mid-August. The projection models have tempered expectations for Bauer in 2019 — at least, relative to what he might foresee for himself. Still, if last season was the new norm for Bauer, this rotation should be as capable as any.

FanGraphs projection: 3.56 ERA, 4.0 WAR

Mike Clevinger
Among AL starters last season, Clevinger ranked sixth in ERA (3.02) and eighth in WAR (4.3). Not too shabby for a team’s No. 4 starter. He aimed for 200 innings and he finished the season with precisely 200 innings. What does he have for an encore?

FanGraphs projection: 4.00 ERA, 2.6 WAR

Shane Bieber
The Indians are high on Bieber, and for good measure. He posted a 4.55 ERA in his first major-league tour, but he logged a 3.23 FIP. Why the disparity? He doesn’t walk anyone (1.8 per nine innings) and he tends to keep the ball in the park (1.0 HR per nine). That’s a good combination, especially considering he struck out more than a batter per inning. Oh yeah, and he doesn’t turn 24 until May 31.

FanGraphs projection: 3.86 ERA, 2.4 WAR


Brad Hand (Brad Rempel / USA Today Sports)
Relievers
Brad Hand
Let’s start with the surefire options to which Francona can turn. Hand struck out 106 batters in 72 innings last season. Dellin Betances is one of two relievers in the sport to tally 100 or more strikeouts in each of the last three seasons. Can you name the other?

A. Andrew Miller
B. Aroldis Chapman
C. Craig Kimbrel
D. Kenley Jansen
E. Edwin Diaz
F. It’s Brad Hand, you idiot, why else would you be asking this?

(The correct answer is F.)

FanGraphs projection: 3.41 ERA, 1.2 WAR

Oliver Pérez
OK, that was it for the surefire options. Now, on to everyone else.

Pérez was automatic last season, with a 1.39 ERA, a 1.74 FIP, 12 strikeouts per nine innings and a league-leading 878 random windup contortions. And to think, the Indians pried him away from the Yankees after he reached his June 1 minor-league opt-out date. His up-and-down career, which stretches back to 2002 — when Tom Brady was a championship quarterback and a gallon of gas cost less than $2 … wait, hang on a second, there has to be a better analogy — suggests we shouldn’t assume anything. But he’ll get a chance to prove he can be an effective lefty reliever for a second consecutive season.

FanGraphs projection: 3.91 ERA, 0.1 WAR

Dan Otero
Otero said last month he’s ready to pitch whenever his name is called.

OK, but what about when his nickname is called … too soon?

Anyway, O.T. and O.P. are back in action, and the Indians need Otero to flush 2018 and locate his 2016-17 form, when he registered a 2.14 ERA. His home-run rate doubled last season. According to an analytical study, that is not ideal.

FanGraphs projection: 3.81 ERA, 0.2 WAR

Tyler Olson
Olson posted a 0.00 ERA in 2017, and duplicated that feat in 2018 … in August and September. His first few months were a bit rocky, but there’s reason to believe he’ll be better in 2019.

Olson vs. lefties last year: .182/.250/.345 slash line
Olson’s strikeout rate: 8.1 per nine innings in 2017, 13.2 per nine innings in 2018
Olson in Aug./Sept.: 13 scoreless appearances

FanGraphs projection: 3.86 ERA, 0.3 WAR

Adam Cimber
Cimber was enjoying a sterling rookie campaign with the Padres (3.17 ERA, 2.33 FIP, 9.5 K/9). Then, the Indians uprooted him in a midseason trade. His FIP nearly tripled. His strikeout rate plummeted. Still, the Indians remain optimistic that the man with the quirkiest of deliveries will rebound.

FanGraphs projection: 4.24 ERA, 0.1 WAR

Neil Ramírez
Here’s where things get murky. Ramírez makes the cut, mostly because he’s out of options and he signed for $1 million to avoid arbitration. Otherwise, the reincarnation of Zach McAllister might be on the outside looking in, given the endless cast of relievers vying for a job with the Indians this spring.

FanGraphs projection: 4.18 ERA, 0.3 WAR

Alex Wilson
The Indians are familiar with him, given his track record with the Tigers. The sinkerballer owns a 3.23 ERA over parts of six big-league seasons with Detroit.

FanGraphs projection: 4.39 ERA, 0.0 WAR

Catchers
Roberto Pérez
He’s on a mission to silence his doubters, saying last month: “I’m going to prove some people wrong.”

There’s no questioning his defensive ability or his rapport with the pitching staff. Another .168/.256/.263 slash line won’t cut it, though. Pérez requested to play winter ball so he could get some extra repetitions after appearing in only 62 games last season. He’s confident that consistent playing time will translate into better numbers at the plate.

FanGraphs projection: .214/.305/.356, 1.0 WAR

Kevin Plawecki
He doesn’t come with Pérez’s defensive pedigree, but Plawecki should serve as a capable big-league backup behind the plate.

FanGraphs projection: .241/.313/.385, 1.1 WAR


Francisco Lindor (Mark J. Rebilas / Getty Images)
Infielders
José Ramírez
He ended last season with a .939 OPS, 34 stolen bases, 39 home runs, 38 doubles and 26 more walks than strikeouts — and that includes his well-documented late-summer slumber. Can he submit a more productive August and September? What about October?

FanGraphs projection: .284/.374/.513, 5.9 WAR

Jason Kipnis
Just when he thought he was (in the) out(field), they pull him back (to the) in(field). At the moment, Kipnis seems destined for second base. And with Leonys Martín healthy, his annual September Center Field Relocation might be in jeopardy. With Kipnis, it’s simple: No one’s asking him to return to his All-Star status, with an .800 OPS and 30 stolen bases. It’s more about avoiding the ghastly first couple of months that torpedoed his full-season stat line in 2018.

Oh wait, the Indians’ lineup is desperate for output, given the uncertainty in the outfield and at catcher and at designated hitter? OK, yeah, a return to All-Star form will do. Good luck.

FanGraphs projection: .248/.322/.403, 1.9 WAR

Carlos Santana
In case you must reacquaint yourself with the Santana Ebb & Flow Chart …

April/May: Microscopic batting average, questions raised about whether he should drop in the batting order
June: On-base percentage rises, but still not hitting much
July: The bat heats up a bit and the walk total keeps climbing
August: Sparked by a four-homer weekend in Kansas City, all seems right in the world again

FanGraphs projection: .251/.366/.453, 2.1 WAR

Jake Bauers
The former top-100 prospect will hit in the middle of the Indians’ batting order and could see time at first base and left field. If he duplicates his first-half production from last season (.864 OPS), the Indians will be thrilled. If he duplicates his second-half production from last season (.589 OPS), the Indians’ lineup will be tagged as Not Safe For Work.

FanGraphs projection: .245/.338/.415, 1.5 WAR

Jose Iglesias (FA signing)
With Lindor potentially sidelined for the start of the regular season, the Indians might seek a veteran middle infielder on the free-agent market. Iglesias is a sure-handed shortstop who could serve as an option as the utility infielder even when Lindor returns. The Lindor development also offers Yu-Cheng Chang and Eric Stamets an opportunity to garner more attention during spring training.

FanGraphs projection: .263/.307/.372, 1.7 WAR

Max Moroff
He’s out of options and he can play all over the infield, so he’s the leading candidate for the utility role.

FanGraphs projection: .219/.321/.361, 0.4 WAR


Leonys Martin (Hannah Foslien / Getty Images)
Outfielders
This might be a good time to try the “Bird Box” challenge.

Leonys Martín
Healthy and motivated following last summer’s brush with death, Martín figures to earn regular playing time in center field. He can become a free agent at the end of the season.

FanGraphs projection: .248/.308/.388, 1.5 WAR

Greg Allen
Allen has flashed glimpses of ability that suggest he could develop into an everyday big-leaguer, and there’s no outfield more inviting for players with something to prove.

Consider this:

Allen’s minor-league walk rate: 10.1 percent
Allen’s major-league walk rate: 4.8 percent

Certainly, the difference in pitching ability at the two levels has some influence. But for a switch-hitting speedster, exhibiting that patience at the big-league level would pay significant dividends.

FanGraphs projection: .249/.314/.350, 0.2 WAR

Tyler Naquin
Naquin played his way onto the 2016 roster, posted an .886 OPS, finished third in a loaded AL Rookie of the Year competition and then vanished. He has eons to avoid a Charboneau-lite career arc, but this would be a good time to prove the last two seasons — in which he logged a .628 OPS with only eight walks in 80 games — were uncharacteristic.

FanGraphs projection: .262/.322/.408, 0.8 WAR

Jordan Luplow
The Pirates’ Minor League Player of the Year in 2017, Luplow, 25, has yet to stick in the majors. This could be his best shot, as he doesn’t have Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco standing in his way. There’s still a chance the Indians add another low-priced veteran free agent (Adam Jones?) who could bump Luplow to Class AAA.

FanGraphs projection: .245/.319/.417, 1.0 WAR

Matthew Joyce
If Joyce’s 2018 (.675 OPS) was simply an injury-riddled fluke and he can revert to his 2016-17 output (.828 OPS, an extra-base hit every 10 plate appearances), he could be a valuable, low-risk addition.

FanGraphs projection: .237/.340/.418

Don’t you … forget about me
Bradley Zimmer
He’ll be in the mix as soon as his shoulder fully heals, but let’s remember: He had been demoted to Class AAA before he went under the knife. There are still some tweaks to make at the plate.

Danny Salazar
It makes sense to stow Salazar in the minors for a bit as he works his arm back into shape, since he spent all of last year in Arizona. That said, relying on Salazar for anything might be a fool’s errand.

Cody Anderson
He’ll start on time this spring and, like Salazar, the idea of Anderson in the bullpen is somewhat tantalizing. But he hasn’t thrown a pitch in a big-league game since 2016, so it might be wise to start him off in Columbus.

Nick Goody
The oft-forgotten righty excelled for the Tribe in 2017 before he endured an injury-marred season in 2018. He’ll join the major-league mix eventually, and maybe even return to a high-leverage role.

Jon Edwards
The Indians considered placing Edwards on the ALDS roster last October, and Francona hasn’t stopped gushing about him since. While that would seem to indicate he has an inside track at a bullpen spot, he does have minor-league options remaining and he has only logged 49 professional innings over the last three years because of injuries.

Nick Wittgren
The Indians acquired Wittgren — another right-handed relief name to toss into the hat — from the Marlins last week.

Eric Haase
If a catcher suffers an injury, here’s your man.

Remember the names

James Hoyt, Chih-Wei Hu, Jefry Rodriguez and Justin Grimm could each factor into the bullpen mix at some point, depending on injuries or ineffectiveness. Adam Plutko is always lingering in the event the club needs another starter. Yu-Cheng Chang‘s versatility could eventually help the lineup. Oscar Mercado can sprint to Cleveland from Columbus the instant the Indians need another outfielder. Bobby Bradley has some work to do in Class AAA, but if Santana or Bauers are sidelined, Bradley could earn a promotion. And don’t be shocked if top prospect Triston McKenzie or 2018 draft pick Nick Sandlin enter the bullpen equation this summer.

I found that a very useful summary maybe because I agreed with all of his ratings, although perhaps projecting a positive WAR for everyone from Luplow to Naquin to Neil Ramirez was a bit of a stretch. I certainly agree that the "certainty" in the bullpen is one-man deep. And that Ramirez=McAllister is a good comparison. Francona likes to go back to the tried and true but I'm hopeful that he decides to be bit more daring this spring and lets Ramirez and the great Otero depart and keeps someone younger although as yet unproved like Jefry Rodriguez or Wu. I guess the latter two have a mutli pitch mix so could have careers as starters with some organizations, but not in Cleveland.

Projecting Indians lineup: Start at top with Francisco Lindor, José Ramírez, then …

T.J. Zuppe 2h ago 4

CLEVELAND​ — As ideas​ about lineup​ construction have evolved over​ the years, the​ profile of the​ leadoff​ hitter has​ matured and​​ adapted. The speedsters who once carried an on-base percentage nearing .300 have been replaced by better, more complete hitters, players who might’ve been classified as middle-of-the-order sluggers in seasons past.

Francisco Lindor has been part of that revolution. His 38 homers and hefty slugging percentage don’t scream scrappy hitter, but guys like Lindor and reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts are becoming the new standard atop lineups.

Teams have prioritized on-base ability and guys who just generate more offense. And why is that important? Well, wouldn’t you want your best hitters to get the most plate appearances?

“By and large,” Chris Antonetti said this winter, “if your goal is, ‘Hey, I want to try to get the best hitters we have up most frequently,’ you’re going to get most of the way there.”

Lineup construction, when simplified, should stress getting your best hitters the most opportunities to impact the game. And who gets the most chances? The same part of the lineup that once featured inefficiency and sacrifice bunts. Gross.

The Indians executed the improved blueprint with Lindor and José Ramírez last season, and despite some massive questions about the new bottom half of their lineup, it’s a game plan they shouldn’t scrap in 2019.

Yes, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion and Yan Gomes are now gone. In-season additions Josh Donaldson and Melky Cabrera, two above-average contributors, have also departed.

Even the return of Carlos Santana and the acquisition of once-promising hitting prospect Jake Bauers aren’t enough to provide the on-paper sizzle a World Series hopeful club would like to feature behind their MVP candidates (and Lindor’s offseason calf injury certainly hasn’t made anyone feel better).

But while it might be tempting to add more perceived depth to the lineup by sliding Lindor or Ramírez into more traditional run-producing slots, they ought to stick with what worked so well last year, avoiding the mistakes of previous lineup-building philosophies by keeping their superstars at the plate most often.


Francisco Lindor has helped change the perception of what a leadoff hitter is supposed to be. Will he remain at the top of the lineup in 2019? (Ken Blaze / USA Today Sports)
Evidence of a shift can be found in consistently higher run-creation rates for leadoff hitters since 2002. Last year, they combined to finish 5 percent above average in wRC+ across MLB, a 12 percent climb from where they sat in 2002 (that’s as far back as FanGraphs tracks batting order splits). Four of the top wRC+ seasons for leadoff hitters have come over the past five years, while six of the bottom eight totals came prior to 2008.

A similar trend has emerged regarding the No. 2 slot. Last year, hitters batting second posted a 109 wRC+, the highest run-creation rate of that period and a 17 percent climb since 2002. Meanwhile, No. 3 hitters contributed their lowest run-creation rate of that stretch, owning a 116 wRC+ last year.

What does that mean?

Simply, better hitters are more frequently settling into the first two lineup spots. There’s a good reason for that.

Last year, the average leadoff spot received 754.37 plate appearances. The No. 2 hitter, meanwhile, batted an average of 737.73 times, a difference of 16.64 plate appearances. If you continue that exercise down the entire order, you arrive at an average decline of 17.67 plate appearances each time you drop a spot in the course of the season (this is why Tribe fans were livid each time Ramírez was penciled into the five-hole a few years ago).

Now, 17 plate appearances might not sound like a lot, but it’s a bit like losing four games of production over the entire season each time you drop one slot.

To put it another way, Lindor averaged one home run every 19.6 plate appearances last season. If he was, for example, tasked with hitting third — not earning the league-leading 745 plate appearances as the Indians’ leadoff hitter — you might subtract two homers from his season total. That also doesn’t account for his .352 on-base percentage. That translates into about 12 additional times on base.

In that realm, one of their greatest triumphs last season was ensuring that Lindor (130 wRC+) and Ramírez (146 wRC+) led the team in plate appearances, combining for 23 percent of the team’s total opportunities. The only potential gripe is that Ramírez could have earned a few more chances if elevated to the two-hole, but with Brantley (124 wRC+) separating the two, we’re really just nitpicking.

This year, however, things might get a little more, uhh, complicated.

Santana joins Lindor and Ramírez as the only Indians hitters projected by the Steamer and ZiPs models to finish with an OPS above .753. Below that initial trio is Bauers (.753), Jordan Luplow (.736), Tyler Naquin (.730), Kipnis (.724), Leonys Martin (.696) and a slew of other hitters with worse projected numbers.

That doesn’t exactly remove a lot of anxiety when examining how the bottom half of their lineup might be stacked. And with that reality looming, one might suggest they no longer have the luxury of keeping Lindor in the leadoff spot. You could theorize that by moving him lower, you could shift him into run-producing spots, all in an effort to lengthen the lineup and knock in more runs.

Terry Francona used that logic on a handful of occasions last year, pushing Lindor into the cleanup spot when they were without Encarnacion — a task Lindor gleefully accepted, playfully puffing out his chest at the thought of serving as Ramírez’s protection.

But is that what’s best for the offense in 2019? That depends on your philosophy.


Carlos Santana and José Ramírez likely fit best somewhere near the top of the Indians lineup (Jerome Miron / USA Today Sports)
If every dropped slot results in fewer trips to the plate, moving Lindor or Ramírez lower in the lineup will offer them fewer chances over the course of the season. In this scenario, a drop from the leadoff slot to the cleanup spot would cost a hitter around 50 plate appearances. For your biggest threats, that seems less than ideal.

With that established, it becomes difficult to believe the best way to remedy the club’s offensive shortcomings is to give their best hitters fewer chances, which is why their best order is almost certainly the one that features almost any combination of Lindor-Ramírez-Santana in the top three.

If we use that as our only guide and toss lineup balance out the window — anarchy! — the result looks something like this (for this exercise, we’ll assume Lindor’s injury won’t keep him out much beyond the first few weeks and a healthier Matt Joyce makes the club).

Batting Order Hitter (Projected OPS via FanGraphs)
1st Francisco Lindor (.863)
2nd José Ramírez (.887)
3rd Carlos Santana (.820)
4th Jake Bauers (.753)
5th Matt Joyce (.758) / Jordan Luplow (.736)
6th Jason Kipnis (.724)
7th Tyler Naquin (.730) / Greg Allen (.664)
8th Roberto Pérez (.659)
9th Leonys Martin (.696)
The top three in that order are still as formidable as any, but beyond their early star power, things get worrisome pretty quickly. The trio of Santana, Bauers and Joyce would certainly walk like crazy — I can even buy that Santana’s on-base totals present the best alternative to Lindor at the top of the lineup — but each of the bottom four owns their own set of questions to open the season.

But that’s true of where any of those players hit. There’s no magic formula to tap into Kipnis’ past success or Naquin’s solid rookie season of 2016. And while stacking four consecutive left-handed bats leaves them open to bullpen exploitation, they’ve proved willing to use aggressive pinch-hitting in the past.

The most important factor in this scenario is that their best hitters are — say it with me — positioned to get the most chances, and the guys with the most questions receive fewer.

Is that what is likely to happen? Maybe not.

Francona values lineup balance, thus it’s difficult to imagine him stringing three switch-hitters in consecutive order. He generally prefers to separate the left-handed bats when possible, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kipnis or Bauers earn some early opportunities in the upper third, simply because it would keep the bottom five slots from getting bogged down by too many lefties.

And even if Lindor and Ramírez stay planted at the top of the lineup, this exercise also demonstrates that the team would benefit from adding another right-handed bat to play against lefties — an Evan Gattis type, perhaps? — someone to move Bauers out of the cleanup spot against his weaker platoon side and add some middle-of-the-order thump.

Of course, Mike Moustakas, Derek Dietrich or Marwin González would also greatly improve the offensive outlook, but the front office has disappointed those scouring the remaining free-agent market by indicating their focus this spring is tied to non-roster signings.

What is most evident — outside of their hope that Lindor’s calf injury doesn’t linger and a need to continue creating offense with good base running — is that the bottom of the lineup, no matter how it is ordered, will likely position the offense to take a step back from last season’s 104 wRC+, a mark that ranked seventh-best in baseball.

Thankfully, just having the Lindor-Ramírez tandem greatly raises any team’s offensive floor, and the Indians’ starting rotation, arguably the best group in the game, is still poised to do most of the heavy lifting.

But the more times their best offensive weapons carry their lumber to the dish, the more of the load they’ll be able to shoulder.

that lineup is woeful. or awful. depending on your turn of phrase. Even cleanup is uncertain.

Trevor Bauer says Cleveland Indians used ‘character assassination’ in arbitration case

Updated 1:07 PM; Posted 1:07 PM

By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com

GOODYEAR, Ariz. – Trevor Bauer said the Indians used “character assassination’ to try and win their arbitration case against him last week in St. Petersburg, Fla.. It did not work.

On Tuesday Bauer was awarded a $13 million salary for 2019, representing the biggest arbitration award in team history. The Indians offered him $11 million.

It is the second year that Bauer has beaten the Indians in arbitration. He said this time the Indians representatives in the hearing zeroed in on his social media presence.

Asked if he got his feelings hurt during the hearing, Bauer said, “They tried this year. They spent the last 10 minutes of the case trying character assassination.

“It was great. I learned that giving to charity is a bad thing. I learned that agreeing with someone on a podcast, just for the sake of argument, that I’m worth $10.5 million should the definitive answer why I’m not worth $13 million.”

When Bauer won his arbitration case last year for $6.525 million, he made more money than he anticipated so he decided to donate the excess to charities. He announced on Twitter that he was conducting a “69 days of giving’ campaign in which he would donate $420.69 to a different charity over 68 days. On the 69th day he would donate $69,420.69 to another charity.


The number 69 has a sexual connotation and 420 is associated with marijuana use. Bauer said that’s what the Indians’ representative in the arbitration case focused on.

“What else did they say? Basically, I’m a terrible human being which is an interesting play on their part.

“They didn’t even mention that it was a charitable campaign. They just mentioned the name. They don’t mention that I gave to 68 different charities or that I donated over $100,000 dollars. Or that the whole part of the campaign with to bring that awareness to those charities. Nothing about out that. They tried to tell me I was running my campaign because of those numbers. . .Apparently the arbitrators didn’t see it as a negative.”

Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, the Indians top baseball executives, were not at the hearing. In general most team’s baseball executives do not go to the hearings.

“Actually, I invited Chris and Chernoff to the hearing,” said Bauer, with mischief in his eyes. “I sent them a nice plus one invite. I did it all up. Designed it all myself. You are formally invited to attend the arbitration hearing between Trevor Bauer and the Cleveland Indians. I had the date, the location, you and a plus one (are invited).


“And they decided not to come. That’s what I was most hurt about. I had this big event. I got a custom suit. I dress up and they didn’t even show up. The disrespect is unbelievable.”

Bauer said he has no hard feelings toward the Indians.

“No, I understand it,” he said. “I look at it as a very intellectual pursuit. It’s very intellectual and not very emotional.

“They thought it would be a good way to sway (the arbitrators) as a final argument and try to get a decision they were looking for. They actually apologized to me afterward which I thought was odd. They did it in front of the arbitrators, which was probably not the smartest decision. They should have waited until I was out of the room.

“No, it doesn’t bug me. They’re trying to win their case just like I’m trying to win my case. At the end of the day we walk out, have dinner and be fine and shoot the breeze for me. It was unemotional for me.”

Bauer isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season. That means he can go to arbitration for one more year whether he’s with the Indians or not. He said another trip to the arbitration table was almost a certainty.

I think we understand why the Indians have been trying to get rid of this guy.

He's bizarre but he's a very good, very reliable pitcher. I guess Hall of Fame voters will have to judge his personality with his career accomplishments 25 years from now.

We live in the "too much information age".

I would have been perfectly happy with a simple statement of who won the arbitration hearing.

Now some will label Bauer as a whacko and want to trade him and some will say the guys that represented the Indians argument as "say anything to win" pieces of shit.

Information divides us.

I root for the team not the transient players on the team.

seagull wrote:We live in the "too much information age". ...

Information divides us.

I root for the team not the transient players on the team.

- - - - - -

Says the guy bitching in the Browns forum about Dorsey taking guys with off field baggage. Really? I'm confused.

Bauer has always been a flake. A few times a year he reminds us he still is.

Bauer will do a great job on the mound for us for a couple more years. He's already made clear he'll go on the FA market and move on for the best deal. That's why he has recommended that the Indians should trade him. He's a pretty smart businessman

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- All publicity is good publicity, according to Trevor Bauer.

On Tuesday, Sports Illustrated released a story with the headline: "Trevor Bauer Is More Concerned About Being Right Than Being Liked." It took a deep dive into his professional career and personal life including a wide range of topics, from training to social media. But the overall theme was clear: Bauer does not care what people think.

Bauer received a lot of backlash after the story broke, but he said Tuesday afternoon that his focus remains on breaking barriers when it comes to honesty and being true to himself. He noted that Tim Lincecum paved the way for him to be a first-round Draft pick by being a smaller-sized right-hander, and he hopes to do the same for other people in other ways.

"Hopefully at some point, someone else behind me will have an easier time with training methods, with being honest, with being true to who they are or whatever, because I broke down some sort of barrier," Bauer said. "I care about making the game, the industry and the people I'm around better because I'm around. Ultimately that's what creates a legacy. … But you have to be OK with making people mad because people don't like change.

"I finally at some point in high school just decided that's what I was going to do. I was going to be true to myself. I like who I am, trying to handle myself with integrity, character, honesty, treat people well and how I would like to be treated. And as long as I do those things, I can look at myself in the mirror and be proud of who I am at the end of each day."

One of the more controversial topics that arose in the feature was Bauer's romantic life. He said his three rules of dating are: making sure there are no feelings, no social media posts while the two are together and keeping the relationship open without commitment. Although his Twitter has been full of negative responses, he does not see the issue with it.

"I don't view that as being sexist," Bauer said. "I want to give the other person the relevant information, so they can make the best decision for themselves. If they are looking for something more than that, then I'm not the right fit. They shouldn't waste their time thinking that I will be, and I have no problem telling them that because I'm not afraid of that not working out.

"That seems like the most fair and respectful thing to do. So when I look at myself in the mirror, having had a conversation like that, that's how I view things. I can be proud of that. I can tell the truth about that. It doesn't matter to me what someone says or calls me. ... It's been quite fun reading all those comments, seeing how mad people get about someone who is themself and tells the truth."

Although he doesn't become a free agent until after the 2020 season, Bauer told Sports Illustrated that he will not be with the Indians next year and thinks it's logical to trade him for prospects. On Tuesday, he noted that athletes who remain with a single team their whole careers are a dying breed. Those who root for Bauer will have to hop on board with this concept, given the fact that the 28-year-old has made it clear that he will only sign one-year contracts for his entire career.

"Gone are the days of athletes staying with the same team," Bauer said. "And so gone are the days of being super loyal to a certain team and a certain group of players. Fans now root for individuals more so than they root for teams. So, that's changing. But in order for there to be change, someone's got to go first. I want to be the one to go first."

As Bauer spent his entire Tuesday reading the negative headlines and Tweets, does he regret opening up to Sports Illustrated? Does it ever get old or tiring to get the backlash from his open and honest ways? He says no.

"Everyone's talking about me today. So, as a personal brand goes, is that bad?" Bauer said. "From a personal branding standpoint, all attention is good attention. You would much rather be in the press than forgotten about."

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- The Indians' outfield has drawn quite a bit of attention over the offseason, after losing Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall. And even though Bradley Zimmer will not be ready for Opening Day, he's not worried about the team's strength in the grass.

"I could care less what anyone has to think about our performance, myself. That's for them to think," Zimmer said. "I know what I have and what we have is plenty good and can compete with any outfield out there. So I think we're going to be fine. To be honest, we're probably going to shock a lot of people

Zimmer, 26, underwent right shoulder surgery last July and was originally expected to miss 8-12 months for a return to full baseball activities. He seems to be right on schedule, if not slightly ahead.

"Obviously I want to be back as soon as possible, playing and be on this team, contributing," Zimmer said. "But at the same time I want to be 100 percent physically and be able to have no questions that something doesn't feel right or whatever. I'm just sticking with the plan and taking it day by day, continuing to make strides daily, weekly, until myself and the staff feels like I'm ready to play."

Zimmer has graduated from hitting off a tee to taking full swings in the cage. In January, he was throwing up to 75 feet, but he's making sure to not rush himself.

"It feels great swinging," Zimmer said. "Everything feels pretty good for the most part. It's just throwing is the last thing to come. So whenever that comes along I should be good."

Because of the injury, Zimmer played in just 34 games for the Indians last season, hitting .226 with two home runs and nine RBIs. His last appearance came on June 3 in Minnesota.

"It was not fun," Zimmer said of being sidelined. "I think watching is the best way to put it, it's tough to do. It's not where I want to be, but I'm in a lot better place now and did a lot of work this offseason to get to where I am for 2019, so I'm really looking forward to this year."

Until Zimmer makes a full recovery, the Indians will have outfield options in Greg Allen, Jordan Luplow, Tyler Naquin, Leonys Martin and Matt Joyce. The Indians have already told Martin that he will be the club's starting center fielder, leaving the corner spots up for grabs.

"People that want to doubt you or say whatever they want to say, take it as motivation," Zimmer said. "It'll be fun to see them on the other end when we're proving everyone wrong."

[BASICALLY THE SAME STORY IN THE PD. There Zimmer says he intends to continue to play hard but infers that he might try not continue to play recklessly.]