Cleveland Sports Forum

Starting 9: Is Corey Kluber back? José Ramírez strengthens MVP case, and the rise of Nolan Jones …


By Travis Sawchik 12m ago
1:​ The alarms​ have quieted​ around the immediate future​ and performance of​ Corey Kluber. On​ the​ surface, he​ looked much​​ more like his reigning AL Cy Young-self in his last two starts, particularly in his 98-pitch, complete game shutout effort against the Angels.

While the Indians are far behind the Red Sox and Astros in win totals in the standings, in the postseason tournament having Kluber back to his typical self — in addition to Trevor Bauer pitching at an ace-level and a healthy Carlos Carrasco — would put the Indians in their best starting pitching situation entering a postseason during this competitive window. The Indians could have a staff that will allow them to be competitive against any team in a postseason series.

2: Still, there are still some things to keep an on eye on regarding Kluber. He generated just a 7.1 percent swinging strike rate against the Angels, below the league average rate. The Angels made contact with every pitch they swung at that was in the strike zone. While his vertical release point increased closer to 2017 levels against Detroit (when he posted a 17 percent whiff rate), it dipped again against the Angels. Neither the Tigers or Angels have great lineups. Kluber might still be searching. But his release point has been in gradual decline for several seasons, so it’s not clear exactly how important this trend is.
3: The most important positive development is perhaps that Kluber is regaining confidence in his breaking ball. When he struggled near the end of last season and in the ALDS against the Yankees, he at times lost some of the pitch’s darting characteristics. But the offering’s horizontal movement has improved, as has his usage and apparent confidence in the pitch. Against Detroit, 23.4 percent of Kluber’s offerings were curveballs, and against the Angels, 23.5 percent were curveballs. There were times over the last two months in which that usage had dipped to 15 percent within a start. Last season, Kluber threw the pitch at a 30 percent rate in the second half.

The breaking ball is what fueled Kluber’s remarkable second half and strikeout surge last season en route to his second Cy Young. He hasn’t had the same confidence in the pitch this year. Kluber’s slider usage has dipped from a career-high 27.5 percent usage rate last year to 22.1 percent this year.
Getting back to greater reliance on his breaking ball is key. When his cutter and two-seamer flattened during his struggles, batters were perhaps also less concerned with a curveball that he was throwing less often.

4: The other player of great interest is the club’s bullpen ace. Andrew Miller still isn’t 100 percent, as we can see in his fastball velocity (though he did touch 94 Sunday) and location. But given his extreme reliance on his sweeping, wipeout slider, Miller can perhaps still be a well-above-average pitcher with declining fastball velocity. After all, Rich Hill is a well-above-average pitcher with a fastball that often doesn’t break 90 mph.
If Miller can regain his 2016 form in October to go along with the addition of Brad Hand, the Indians ought to have a starting rotation and bullpen to compete with the other AL superteams.

5: While there is an argument to be made that Tommy Pham was a better fit and worth paying more for in prospect treasure — Pham was traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline — Leonys Martín is an interesting choice to solidify center field. While he’s probably not going to morph into José Ramírez as an unlikely power threat, it is interesting that he has a 1.40 groundball-to-flyball ratio for his career but a 0.79 GB/FB ratio in 2018. Martín might have found a way to better lift and drive the ball in the air to his pull side, which is a positive development for about every hitter in the major leagues.

6: With his Sunday performance that included a first-inning, three-run homer, Ramírez is now just 0.1 WAR behind Mike Trout in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs. Trout sat out a third consecutive game with a wrist injury Sunday. Ramírez’s MVP odds are improving by the day, especially when considering many voters place value on whether an individual performance occurs on a playoff team.

7: When the Indians drafted Nolan Jones in the second round of the 2016 draft, he was rated as one of the best pure prep hitters in the class. The question was about his power. As I wrote last week, teams ought to value hit tools over power tools when evaluating prospects in this era when launch angle and power have shown to be capable of being taught. Then-Indians director of amateur scouting Brad Grant was optimistic, saying after the 2016 draft he believed Jones would hit for power. Well, Jones has begun to do just that. A two-homer game last week pushed his total at Low-A Lake County to 16 and earned him a promotion to High A, where he promptly swatted a three-run homer.

He’s posted excellent walk rates to date in his minor-league career, 16 percent, in short-season ball last summer and 16 percent in Lake County. He’s improved from hitting 2.2 ground balls per fly ball in his first exposures to pro pitching in 2016 and 2017, to 1.6 this season. He’s getting the ball in the air more often, and his HR/FB ratio has spiked to 25 percent this year, an elite mark for a 20-year-old. His sweet left-handed swing is one to watch. It’s not a stretch to think he has the most offensive potential in the system.

8: From the power development of Ramírez and Francisco Lindor, to extracting value out of pitchers the Indians have acquired, like Carrasco and Kluber and Mike Clevinger, the Indians have done about as well as any club — perhaps only the Astros have been better — at developing players.

9: Keep an eye on 19-year-old right-handed pitching prospect Luis Oviedo, who was recently promoted to Low-A Lake County after leading the New York-Penn League in strikeout and strikeout minus walk percentage at the time of his call-up. He has mid-90s throwing velocity and precocious command. He’s one of the most intriguing arms in the system.

STAT OF THE WEEK: 95

MLB-best runs scored by Lindor, a remarkable number.

STAT OF THE WEEK II: 2

Career number of ‘Maddux-es,’ shutouts of fewer than 100 pitches, for Kluber. His first July 30, 2014, against the Mariners required just 85 pitches. His second Saturday required 98.

HE SAID IT

“Results aside, that’s where I want to feel like I can repeat my delivery. The rest of the stuff kind of falls in place and allows you to execute pitches if you’re able to repeat all that stuff beforehand.”

— Kluber to reporters after Saturday’s start. He seems to be feeling better, and the mechanics have fallen into place. The Indians could not hope for a more positive development.

By the Numbers: On Leonys Martín’s potential to help the top of the lineup, Cody Allen’s recent resurgence, and the Indians’ impact on the bases

T.J. Zuppe 1h ago

Leonys​ Martín carefully​ grabbed a small​ photo between his fingers​ and snatched a piece​ of tape from​ a clubhouse​ attendant. He​ applied the​​ sticky substance to the back of the picture and delicately stuck it to the cabinet above where his new Indians threads hung.

Pleased with the placement, Martín grabbed another photo and waited for a new piece of tape, repeating the process over and over.

By the time he was done, his locker probably felt a lot more like home.

While it was still full of shoes, batting gloves and various baseball equipment, it was also now decorated with photos of his family — a strong use of his Sunday morning. And after a strong weekend with his new team, the trade deadline acquisition from the Tigers has certainly earned the right to feel at home.

The left-handed hitter launched a pair of homers in his first home games as a member of the Tribe — he broke up Felix Peña’s no hitter with a bomb on Saturday — slashing .364/.417/.909 over his first 12 plate appearances since being dealt to Cleveland. Each of Martín’s home runs were rocket shots, leaving his bat at 104.7 mph and 107.3 mph, respectively, two of his four hardest-hit homers of the season.

“I’m really happy, man,” Martín said. “I came here to help. And I want to do my best to help this team to get where we want. We’ve got a long way to go still.”

Martín certainly doesn’t command the name recognition that some of the other trade possibilities did before the deadline. That reality made his addition a bit unfulfilling for some, but even if the move came without much hype, it’s difficult to say they aren’t at least incrementally better with the veteran center fielder on the roster. The biggest question is the level of his offensive impact (his .637 OPS from May 18 to July 29 shouldn’t be completely ignored), but there is some sense that, if used correctly, he’ll fill a needed portion of the Tribe’s evolving outfield puzzle.

“He’s already (made an impact), in a short sample size,” Terry Francona said. “He’s hit a couple balls out of the ballpark, he’s played really good center field, and he’s got some hits. That’s what he can do. Quietly, almost like when we got (Brandon) Guyer a couple years ago, I think it’s quietly really going to help us.”

Here are some important numbers and trends to consider this week.

509 — Francisco Lindor’s MLB-leading number of plate appearances

For as much time as we devote to lineup construction, the overall shift of hitters throughout the nine spots doesn’t have an impact on things as much as we sometimes believe. The most noticeable factor is the number of plate appearances each hitter receives over the course of the season.

Past research has indicated that each spot in the lineup gets 2.5 percent more plate appearances than the slot directly behind it. That’s not a drastic number, but it does mean that, on average, your two-hitter would receive in the neighborhood of 15-18 more trips to the plate than your three-hitter, which is why you’ve seen some teams place their best overall hitter in the two-spot in recent years (and also speaks to why many were frustrated when José Ramírez was hitting fifth for a large chunk of the 2017 season).

It’s probably a bit too simplistic, but if you simply stacked your lineup in the order of your best bats, it would at least ensure the most talented sticks earned the most plate appearances. That’s why Lindor’s MLB-leading number of trips to the plate this season is important — wouldn’t you want him to earn as many chances to have an impact on the game as possible?

This year, Lindor has started in the leadoff spot in 104 of his 109 games played. He’s also hit third once and cleanup three times. The only potential downside to his standing as the leadoff hitter is that almost 63 percent of his plate appearances have come with the bases empty. That means 19 of his 27 homers have been of the solo variety.

Now, even one run can greatly have an impact on any game, but wouldn’t it be nice if a few more of those blasts resulted in multi-run outbursts? Perhaps that’s where Martín’s addition could help. This year, against right-handed pitching, the left-handed hitter owns a .351 on-base percentage and .805 OPS. That’s a pretty big improvement on the production of Tribe nine-hitters this season.

Indians No. 9 hitters in 2018: .238/.280/.358
Martín against righties in 2018: .279/.351/.454

If he’s hitting ninth against righties, that could equal more plate appearances for Lindor with a runner aboard, essentially making Martín a second leadoff hitter. He may not actually be their worst hitter against right-handed pitching, but from a strategy standpoint, it does make a lot of sense to keep him near the bottom of the order.

“It doesn’t matter where you hit, man,” Martín said. “You hit ninth in the first inning, but as long as the ballgame keeps going, you can be a leadoff guy two or three times. I just keep doing my game, try to get on base and create rallies.”

Using what we know about lineup spots, you could also make a strong case for elevating José Ramírez to the two-spot, putting the club’s two most dangerous hitters back-to-back. But that’s a conversation for a different day …

6 — Number of scoreless appearances for Cody Allen since his usage shifted

With Allen struggling in the middle of July, the Indians opted to start using him in more of a floating fireman role. Francona pointed to some inconsistencies in Allen’s delivery, believing that some adjustments paired with more opportunities to “compete” rather than think about his mechanics would benefit him.

Since that decision, Allen has recorded six consecutive scoreless appearances, firing 6 2/3 innings, scattering four hits and two walks, striking out a pair. That’s a pretty big development for a bullpen that recently acquired Brad Hand, Adam Cimber and just activated Andrew Miller from the disabled list.

Perhaps Allen’s most impressive work came Sunday, when the righty entered in the midst of a one-out, bases loaded situation in the seventh inning. Allen induced a pop out and ground out to extinguish the threat, also staying on to work a scoreless eighth.

“That’s really good to see,” Francona said. “We’ve talked about it. Get him in that mode where he just comes in and competes and we got five outs. And he didn’t throw a ton of pitches. That was exciting to watch.”

While just one of the five outs Allen recorded came via strikeout, the most encouraging part of his most recent effort was the lack of hard contact. In fact, the average exit velocity against Allen on Sunday was among the lowest he’s generated this season.
Overall, Allen’s velocity is still slightly down from where he was earlier this year, but Sunday also marked his best fastball average since July 15. He’s also done a much better job of keeping the ball down and making more consistently competitive pitches over his past six appearances, at least when compared with his previous four appearances. In those outings, he gave up a total of nine runs in 3 2/3 innings, a stretch that coincided with a bit of a lower release point.

Allen’s pitches from July 10-20
Allen’s pitches from July 21-Aug 5
While Allen probably still has more to refine before getting back to his typical dominant self, the dynamic of the veteran righty working in a non-designated role is appealing, especially when considering the matchup possibilities that Hand, Miller, Cimber, Neil Ramírez, Oliver Pérez and Dan Otero provide.

That’s why, even following a tough loss Friday night, there’s hope that pieces of an elite bullpen are finding their way into place — particularly if Miller works his way back into form.

“There’s a lot of different looks,” Allen said. “Hopefully we can get to a point where we are clicking on all cylinders and we start shortening games.”

1 — The Indians’ rank in FanGraphs.com’s base-running metric

The Indians enter the week owning baseball’s fourth-best run total this year. Certainly, a lot of that is due to owning the majors’ third-highest slugging percentage and homer total, but don’t sleep on the value they’ve created on the bases.

According to FanGraphs’ all-encompassing base-running metric, BsR, no team has used base-running more to their advantage this season, creating 12.4 runs above average on the bases. Just two clubs have stolen more bases than the Indians this year (85). They also own baseball’s third-best successful stolen base rate (80 percent).

José Ramírez, on top of the excellent season he’s having at the plate, currently owns the highest BsR total in baseball and is tied for the AL lead in stolen bases (26). That’s one area where the switch-hitter has closed the gap in wins above replacement between himself and Mike Trout, who has been the game’s best hitter this season.

Mike Trout: 7.6 WAR
José Ramírez: 7.5 WAR
Mookie Betts: 6.7 WAR
Francisco Lindor: 6.1 WAR
Aaron Judge: 5.0 WAR
The Tribe has been the sixth most reliant team on homers this year, according to their Guillen Number at Baseball Prospectus (the percentage of a team’s runs that score on home runs), but that number has dropped since the start of the season.

It’s not necessarily good or bad to be reliant on the home run — it can sometimes make a club streaky, but it’s also harder to string together hits in the postseason when facing elite pitching — but it certainly doesn’t hurt to create opportunities in other ways, particularly in the playoffs.

Their newest addition, Martín, should also help in that regard. He may not be the stolen base threat he once was — he’s stolen more than 24 bases three times in his career — but he still creates above-average value on the bases.

“As soon as he gets on base, he’s ready to go,” Lindor said of his new teammate. “He wants to score. He takes hard swings when he’s at the plate. When he hits the ball, he becomes a runner and he’s ready to score.”

Photo: Leonys Martín (Ken Blaze/USA Today Sports)

baseball statistics have certainly gone far beyond the lists of at bats and hits and walk and runs and extra base hits that I used to keep when I was a kid. And far beyond Bill James invention of on base pct and slugging average and some single number he devised to incorporate all offensive stats.
I couldn't understand calculus and I can't understand any of the new baseball stats. Nor do I have time to do so! OPS is good enough for me for hitter and WHIP for pitchers. Exit velocity is revealing too but lacking the proper tools to compute it, I'll leave it pretty much alone.

I understand those last two numbers but not the first one; but if it says we're best I'm good with it.

Bowden: Sixteen waiver-wire targets who could boost teams’ playoff chances

(Good call Bowden as Fiers was traded yesterday)


By Jim Bowden Aug 6, 2018 26

The​ August trade​ waiver period​ started with a bang on​ Sunday when the​ St. Louis Cardinals​ claimed​ Tyson Ross​ off trade​​ waivers from the San Diego Padres, and the Milwaukee Brewers did the same with Jordan Lyles. The Padres’ response was quick: Take them. Take the salary. We don’t need a prospect return. We’ll take the savings and promote our younger prospects. It was another reminder to teams — if you claim, you may end up getting the player, so you better be careful if your intent is just to block. You might get the player anyway.

Last year, the Houston Astros traded for Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers right at the Aug. 31 postseason roster deadline, and that waiver trade was the difference maker in the Astros winning the World Series. Could it happen again this year? Doubtful, unless a team like the Washington Nationals fall out of it and decides to shock the baseball world and trade Bryce Harper to a contender. However, that doesn’t mean there might not be a few waiver trades that can make a difference in a team making the postseason, gaining home-field advantage or winning a playoff game. Here are 16 players who GMs around the game think have a shot at being traded by Aug. 31, before it’s too late to make postseason rosters.

1. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Donaldson was once considered a prime candidate to be traded by the July 31 deadline, but those plans changed because of a calf injury that has kept him on the disabled list since May 28. The Blue Jays don’t know when he’ll be healthy enough to be reinstated from the DL, but if he is able to return before the end of August, don’t be surprised if a contending team takes a chance on him, even with the continued injury risk. Remember, he’s only three years from winning the AL MVP Award and two years from finishing in the top four of the voting. Toronto is not expected to pursue him in free agency at the end of the season, and their top prospect, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., will be ready for a September call-up if Donaldson is dealt.

2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, San Francisco Giants
The Giants had one team inquire on McCutchen at the trade deadline, but there wasn’t any momentum at that time for a deal. San Francisco is still within striking distance of a wild-card berth. However, if the team were to fall out of contention in the next few weeks, they might consider putting him on trade waivers and at least see what the return would be. McCutchen would fit well on division-leading teams like the Phillies and Indians.

3. Ervin Santana, RHP, Minnesota Twins
The right-hander has made only two starts since returning from finger surgery, making it impossible for the Twins to move him before July 31. However, if he can put together three or four solid starts, and makes it on waivers to a contending team like the Mariners, Athletics or Yankees, he could be a difference-maker come September. Remember, Santana had an ERA of 3.32 the last two years for the Twins.

4. Kirby Yates, RHP, San Diego Padres
The Padres have had a tremendous amount of interest in Yates, and would be willing to deal him if they can get a good prospect in return. Yates, 31, has a 1.49 ERA, and because of his dominant season, he won’t get far on waivers. But if they can get him to a team like the Cardinals, he could be a significant under-the-radar August acquisition.

5. Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles reportedly had a deal in place with the Philadelphia Phillies for Jones at the trade deadline, but Jones made it clear that he would exercise his 10-and-5 rights and nix any trade. Jones loves Baltimore, where his home and charity is. Even if, after thinking about things for another month, he were to change his mind and accept a deal, it’s unlikely he would get another chance to go to the Phillies, the team that tried to trade for him in July. Probably a team like the Indians or Yankees could put in a claim to either block to try to acquire him. Jones is still a .280 hitter, .310 on-base percentage player still capable of 20 home runs, but probably needs to move to right field going forward.

6. Adrián Beltré, 3B, Texas Rangers
Much like Jones, Beltré has 10-and-5 rights and can control his future, and he too has made it clear he prefers to stay where he is, with the Rangers, the team whose hat he’ll wear when he eventually is inducted into the Hall of Fame. Multiple teams expressed interest in him before the trade deadline, including the Braves and Red Sox. Beltré, 39, is still in search of his first championship, which makes it hard for me to believe that if the Red Sox cut a deal for him this month, he would nix it and essentially eliminate any chance of playing in the postseason again.

7. Kyle Barraclough, RHP, Miami Marlins
The Marlins priced Barraclough right out of the trade market in July, but might reconsider their position if they get another chance to trade him to a contender later this month. The problem they’ll have is that he won’t get very far on trade waivers, and might not even make it to a contending team. He’d be an interesting pickup if he did.

8. Matt Harvey, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds tried to trade Harvey at the July 31 deadline, but never received a respectable offer. They decided to hold on to him, hoping that if he can make three or four good starts in August, someone might change their mind and give the Reds a mid-level prospect for him. Harvey has regained his velocity, improved his groundball rate and has behaved on and off the field since joining the Reds. Teams shouldn’t forget his competitiveness and unselfishness in pitching beyond his physicians’ recommended pitching limits to help pitch the Mets to their last World Series appearance.

9. Dan Straily, RHP, Miami Marlins
The Marlins sent a clear message to the rest of baseball at the trade deadline that they are no longer trading players for financial reasons or service time; rather, they are focused on making baseball trades and acquiring championship talent. With that in mind, if they don’t get someone to give them a legitimate prospect, they’ll hold on to Straily. However, with so many contending teams struggling at the back of their starting rotations, there is a chance he gets moved.

10. Starlin Castro, 2B, Miami Marlins
Castro was not targeted at the trade deadline by many contending teams because there were better second basemen available — like Brian Dozier, who was dealt to the Dodgers, and Jonathan Schoop, who was traded to the Brewers. If any contenders have an injury at second base, however, Castro could become a target this month. The Red Sox already lost Dustin Pedroia, possibly for the season, and now their newly acquired second baseman, Ian Kinsler, is on the DL for a hamstring injury. As of now, the Red Sox haven’t expressed an interest, but that could change.

11. Shane Greene, RHP, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers listened on offers for Greene, but had no interest in giving him away, since they control him beyond this year. That doesn’t mean that, if they could get the right mid-level prospect back, they woudn’t trade him to a contender. With so many relievers already changing teams, Greene moves up on most teams’ lists of back-end-of-the-bullpen trade options.

12. Sergio Romo, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
It was surprising that Romo wasn’t involved in any of the Rays’ deadline trades, based on the success he’s had this year as an opener, closer and everything in the middle. He can still locate his fastball and can still miss bats with his slider. Teams looking for veteran bullpen depth will be circling back to the Rays by the third week of August.

13. José Bautista, OF, New York Mets
Bautista is still drawing walks and showing occasional pop, which makes it possible that he could add another team to his resume. The Yankees reportedly demonstrated some interest after losing both Gary Sánchez and Aaron Judge to the disabled list.

14. James Shields, RHP, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox didn’t find an interested team for Shields at the deadline, but the fact he’s thrown at least six innings in 17 of his 22 starts, including 13 quality starts, means a contender with starting pitching depth issues could still come calling — especially if the White Sox agree to eat most of the financial exposure.

15. Shin-Soo Choo, OF/DH, Texas Rangers
Choo, 36, is having another solid season with 20 home runs and a .388 on-base percentage. The problem is his contract, because he’s due $21 million per year in each of the next two seasons. He’ll definitely clear waivers, but for the Rangers to trade him, they’d probably have to eat over 65 percent of the remaining salary, which makes a trade unlikely at this point.

16. Mike Fiers, RHP, Detroit Tigers
It was reported that the Oakland Athletics had a deal in place for Fiers in the final hour before the trade deadline, but that report was downplayed by GM Al Avila, who said they just didn’t get a good enough trade proposal to move him. The Tigers control Fiers for another season and have no interest in letting him go for a small return. But if he makes on waivers to the Mariners or Athletics, he could still get dealt.

I am still willing to take Choo back

If a player is claimed on waivers,
and the team that placed him wants
nothing, can the player exercise his
no trade rights?

was that a poem? I'm not sure if it scans.

I don't know why we haven't been a player on McCutcheon. I know he's pricey but he is a free agent at years end. Wouldn't cost much in terms of trade bait or salary.

maybe like the small price we paid for Jay Bruce?

Right.

His average has been down, and a tad less power too. But still has nice pop and gets on base at a solid clip. I'd love to add him for the stretch run.

The way they have been playing, it will be a stretch walk!

eocmcdoc wrote:If a player is claimed on waivers,
and the team that placed him wants
nothing, can the player exercise his
no trade rights?

Yes, the no trade clause always applies.

Hillbilly wrote:Right.

His average has been down, and a tad less power too. But still has nice pop and gets on base at a solid clip. I'd love to add him for the stretch run.

Totally agree on him HB. The thing I wonder, SF Giants are pretty leery of appearing to cash in their chips. Their fan base is pretty crazy loyal with amazing attendance which is why they are always adding these veterans to stay in it.

Perhaps later in August when they are more clearly out of the race that could happen?