Cleveland Sports Forum

Does pride keep sluggers from bunting against the shift?

By Joe PosnanskiSep 24, 2013, 11:19 AM EDT [ Again, hard to find any stats after 2014 ]

So it brings us back to the bunt against the shift. As we know, it’s become more and more popular to play three infielders on the right side against power lefties … and put the third baseman close to shortstop. it’s proven to be quite effective against many players. But there is a way to beat it consistently. You could bunt the ball down the third base line. This works, even for players we have come to know as very slow. Three examples:

David Ortiz is 6-for-11 on bunts.

Jim Thome was 2-for-4 on bunts.

Jason Giambi was 2-for-3 on bunts.

No, it’s not selfish … but the more interesting question: Is it productive baseball? How often would a player need to be successful on bunts against the shift for it to be clearly the better strategy. I asked our pal Tom Tango if he had some numbers for the occasion and, not surprisingly, he did. He looked specifically at situations with the bases empty.

“If you are successful on a bunt with bases empty,” he wrote, “you add +.26 runs. If you are out, it’s -.16 runs. If you are successful 60% of the time, then you have added: .26 x .60 – .16 x .40 = +.092 … And that’s pretty much the limit to what an exceptional hitter can add (with the bases empty). Therefore, ANYONE who can bunt at least 60% of the time into an open field (with bases empty) should do it every single time.”

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2013/09/24/doe ... the-shift/

<

More About Bunting and Beating the Shift

by Jeff Sullivan - March 21, 2014 [ Again, nothing after 2014 ]

What might be the upside for shifted hitters learning to bunt? The undisputed king of bunting to beat the shift is Carlos Pena. Since 2008, with nobody on, Pena has attempted a bunt 65 times. He’s bunted the ball fair 33 times, and he’s reached base 23 times. Even with practice, Pena’s right around a 50/50 fair/not-fair rate, but he’s turned better than a third of his attempts into bases. We find Jay Bruce at 30 attempts, with nine fair and five successful. Brian McCann also has 30 attempts, with eight fair and six successful. What’s clear is that bunting against the shift isn’t automatic. What’s also clear is that it’s worked often, and that these hitters could do better if they just practiced their bunting more. I suppose that’s just a guess, but I feel good about it......................

The math is still probably on the side of more bunt attempts. It’s definitely on the side of hitters practicing bunting more often so that they can be more successful when it counts. There should at least be the perception of the threat of a bunt. Over the last two years, shifted batters haven’t been great bunters, but when they’ve bunted the ball fair they’ve reached base twice as often as they haven’t. The numbers show that bunting against the shift is by no means an easy thing, not that any aspect of hitting is easy. And based on the Carlos Pena/Rays example, it doesn’t look like bunting is the solution to eliminating the overshift. It might just slightly alter the overshift, if bunts are dropped down with greater success and greater frequency. Shifting, presumably, is here to stay. The only question is exactly what the shifts are going to look like.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/more-abo ... the-shift/

<

THE SHIFT; REDESIGNING BASEBALL'S DEFENSE

In 1946, Lou Boudreau of the Cleveland Indians was determined to stop Williams. Boudreau was both shortstop and manager of the Indians. He was an extremely ambitious person, and a great player, and he didn’t appreciate that Ted Williams got all the headlines and attention.

Boudreau knew that Williams always hit the ball to the right side of the field and as manager he decided that he would shift three infielders to the right with a trio of outfielders backed up behind them. This meant 6 players were on the right side and only one fielder remained on the left.

This new symmetry became known as The Boudreau Shift or The Ted Williams shift. (It’s now mostly called the defensive shift or just “the shift.”) When Williams saw the shift for the first time, he turned to the umpire and said, “What the hell is going on out there there? They can’t do that.” But they could. The shift was totally legal.

So Williams had a choice: swing the way he always swung, and possibly hit the ball straight into the wall of fielders on the right side, or go out of his comfort zone and try to hit it to the left. Williams was stubborn. He decided not to alter his natural swing. Over time, this refusal to hit to the left cost him some hits and shaved down his batting average by about 15 points.

The shift more or less disappeared from baseball after Ted Williams retired. Teams were reluctant to use it because it didn’t always work. And they had no data to tell them whether the risk of using the shift would pay off over time.

By the 1990s this had changed, and teams began to collect and study data to find advantages. In baseball, this was called “sabermetrics” and it meant that front offices and general managers might improve their team’s performance without spending a lot of money to get the best players.

In 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays, long known as one of the worst teams in all of baseball, began to apply this approach. Their new owner, Stuart Sternberg, brought in the “quants” as they were known, to use data to find hidden advantages. And these data nerds dredged up a tactic from baseball’s distant past: the defensive shift. They believed the shift might give them a two percent advantage over their competition, which was sometimes just enough to win a championship.

Right away, the Rays’ new manager, Joe Maddon (and currently the coach of the Chicago Cubs who are in the World Series) started using the shift on all kinds of different hitters. From nowhere, the Rays transformed themselves from a baseball disgrace to a championship contender. And the shift was right at the center of their resurgence.

And the shift caught on. Soon every team in the league started using it. In fact, other teams began shifting against the Rays’ own best hitters, including the power hitter, Carlos Peña.

In 2007, Peña hit 46 home runs. But in 2008, teams started shifting their defense against him. Now Peña faced the same problem that Ted Williams had faced. But unlike Williams, he didn’t let his ego get in the way. He did something that Ted Williams had only tried a handful of times in his whole career—he bunted.

There is nothing pretty about the bunt. When it works, the ball dribbles off the bat toward third base, where no one is around to pick it up. And for Peña, it worked a lot of the time, even if he didn’t always feel good about using it. Bunting, to Peña, felt like “giving in.” But he swallowed his pride and did it anyway. And eventually Peña became one of the most effective and prolific bunters in the majors against the shift.

Despite his success combating the shift with the bunt, Peña wishes the shift would be eliminated from the game. Commissioner of Baseball, Rob Manfred, agrees. He thinks the shift makes the game less exciting because it makes it harder to score runs.

In many ways, the fight about the shift has become a fight over the nature of the game. Fans and players have bristled at the idea that field decisions are becoming a product of data analysis. So now it’s a fight between the number guys and the traditionalists. Between the nerds and the jocks.

But unless there’s a rule change the field will keep shifting. Because it works.

THROUGH THE 2014 SEASON

<

<

<

<

<

<
<

<

<

<

<

<
<

<

<

<

<

<

Defensive shifts

Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) started tracking the use of defensive shifts in 2010. In the first two seasons, they charted 2,463 and 2,350 on balls in play (note: these don’t include shifts used when batters struck out). But then the shift began to catch on as a regularly-used means of defending hitters who had extreme splits in their hitting tendencies. Shift usage nearly doubled to 4,577 in 2012 and then it nearly tripled to 13,299 in 2014. Two years later, that number more than doubled. There were 28,131 defensive shifts on balls in play in 2016.

Does shifting work? BIS charted that players hit .266 when hitting a ground ball or a short line drive against an unshifted infield and .272 when hitting against a partly-shifted infield. But against fully-shifted infields (three infielders on one side of the diamond), they hit .229. BIS estimated that teams saved 359 runs from their shift usage in 2016, which is probably a basic answer as to why teams are doing it more often.

Two years later, that number more than doubled. There were 28,131 defensive shifts on balls in play in 2016; BIS estimated that teams saved 359 runs from their shift usage in 2016

[ In 2017, the shift should top the 30,000 mark. Until someone figures this thing out, I only see an even larger increase in the total amount of shifts in the future. This would be particularly true assuming that 359 runs were saved in 2016 against 28,131 shifts. So! How would teams be effective in beating the shift?

From previous articles, bunting and hitting to the opposite side of the shift seems to be the answer. This could change the way the minor leagues do business. If the trendy shifts continue to be the wave of the future, minor league hitting instructors might be forced into teaching their young ballplayers bunting techniques and the skills to be become all purpose hitters similar to Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.

What about all of the current players? It's too late to send them back to the minor leagues to learn these techniques. So! How about some quality time in the cages and batting practice? Use Pre-game batting practice more effectively. Use this time to improve bunting skills and spraying the ball all over the park rather than trying to hit monster home run shots.

Anyone who's had the opportunity of watching Manny Ramirez during batting practice would come away very impressed. He didn't waste his time hitting monster shots during batting practice. He'd lay down bunts and spray the ball all over the park.

Unless they declare the shift illegal, the shift is here to stay and teams that expect to be successful, better learn how to deal with it.

Just My Opinion ! ]

ORRRR............

Will the standard line up as we know it today change completely down the road and become a standard shift line up as the evolution dictated over the last four years or so.

I don't like the sound of this ...

In an attempt to lock down one of the game's best up-and-coming players, the Cleveland Indians were apparently prepared to flex their financial muscle.

Francisco Lindor, however, wasn't ready to settle just yet.

Before Opening Day, the Indians "dangled" a package worth around $100 million for the 23-year-old shortstop, a source told Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated.

Since his rookie season in 2015, Lindor has combined to hit .308/.360/.466 while contributing 11.9 WAR. According to FanGraphs, that means it would cost his team $94.9 million to replace his performance on the free-agent market - the ninth-highest such valuation over that time among major-league players.

A handful of teams are attempting to extend their young, controllable assets early in an attempt to wipe out their remaining arbitration years. Players then 26 and under such as Rougned Odor, Tim Anderson, Jose Ramirez, Stephen Piscotty, Carlos Martinez, and Wil Myers, to name a few, all signed extensions with their respective clubs.

Another tier of elite talents is opting to wait it out, presumably hoping to cash in later on as they continue to boost their value. Lindor's fellow Puerto Rican star Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa made headlines when his agent, Greg Genske, said his client would "never" sign an extension.

Lindor's representative, David Meter, has a softer stance than Genske on the topic of contract extensions.

"It's just one of those things we'll look at on a year-by-year basis. I don't think it's very productive to draw a line in the sand," Meter said.

Lindor is slated to earn $579,300 in 2017. He's arbitration eligible in 2019 and is under full team control until 2021. He'll become a free agent in 2022 if he doesn't sign an extension before then.

Let's hope he doesn't hire Boras!

He'll become a free agent in 2022 if he doesn't sign an extension before then

That gives us a little time to wrap this up.

Plenty of time for Lindor. Unless he has a gambling habit or relatives sucking him dry, I think he can live on $600K a little while longer.

AS he continues to get better and better, his pricetag will only rise to Trout-Harper level. No reason for him to jump the gun. His agent would love the big payoff.

I still think they will ink Lindor, but if not that's 5 seasons until free agency. Shit, I'll be lucky if I'm around to see the 2022 season - first things first!

On to Bauer - great outing. As a #4 or 5 guy, he is still a real good fit on this team. Nice comments by Molitor at the end.

Cleveland Indians' Trevor Bauer bounces back after balk to beat Minnesota Twins


MINNEAPOLIS - Trevor Bauer said what happened to him in the fourth inning Thursday afternoon usually occurs about once a season, but there was a different element involved this time.

Bauer's back foot slipped on the pitching rubber as he was about to throw a 3-1 pitch to Jason Castro with the bases loaded. Bauer stumbled through the rest of his delivery and was charged with a balk as Joe Mauer scored from third to give the Twins a 1-0 lead.

When he walked Castro to reload the bases and allowed a sacrifice fly to Jorge Polanco, the Twins held a 2-0 advantage. The fact that they had Ervin Santana, one of baseball's hottest starters, on the mound made that 2-0 lead look daunting.

But Bauer held the Twins scoreless for the next 2 1/3 innings as the Indians rallied for a 6-2 victory at Target Field and a three-game sweep.

"That happens about once a year," said Bauer following his first win of the season. "As soon as I lift my leg and start to make my move to the plate, one of my back cleats slip and I lose my balance.

"It happens to me every now and then - but that was the first time with the bases loaded. That was unfortunate."

It was just the second balk in Bauer's career and the first since April 28, 2015 against Kansas City.

Bauer (1-2, 6.35) threw 110 pitches in 6 1/3 innings. He showed the Twins a curveball at 79-80 mph. He threw cut fastballs and change ups between 86 and 88 mph. Then there was his fastball that topped out at 95 mph.

"I had a good pre-game bullpen session," said Bauer. "Everything worked in the pen. Sometimes that happens and nothing works on the mound.

"The first couple of innings, I left a lot of curveballs up. It was cold out there and sometimes it's tough to get a grip on the ball. I just tried to go through the game and execute the pitches that were called. Thankfully, most of the time it went well."
Indians manager Terry Francona on Trevor Bauer's first win of season

It was 43 degrees at game time, windy and raw. Bauer, however, pitched in short sleeves.

"Sometimes I'll wear (long) sleeves," said Bauer, "but today it wasn't that bad on the mound."

Bauer says he usually has one inning in every start where it appears the sky is falling. How his day ends usually depends on how he handles that inning.

Thursday it was the fourth, complete with his bases-loaded walk. Bauer handled it well even though he needed 39 pitches to do it.

"Every run we got was meaningful because Trevor only gave up two in that inning," said manager Terry Francona. "The balk was unfortunate timing. You're hoping you're one pitch away from a double play. Then all of a sudden it's second and third and you're looking at a tougher inning.

"To his credit he held them to two and buckled down from there."

Bauer said it was "huge' to get out of the fourth with the Tribe down, 2-0.

"I was happy to get through it with only two runs scoring and the offense came back and scored one right away, which I thought was really big," said Bauer.

The Indians cut the Twins lead in half, 2-1, on doubles by Abraham Almonte and Carlos Santana in the fifth. They took the lead in the seventh with three runs, the first coming on another Santana double and bases-loaded walks to Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez.

Twins manager Paul Molitor, ejected in the eighth inning by plate umpire Alan Porter for arguing balls and strikes, watched the Indians sweep his team in a rain-shortened three-game series.

"You add Michael Brantley to your lineup and that's going to help your cause," Molitor told reporters. "Brantley is a complete hitter, a little bit of power and he can certainly hit for a high average. He takes good at-bats every day and (Edwin) Encarnacion certainly puts a big threat in that lineup.

"They're tough. They grind it out. They have a fairly good idea (at the plate). They're coming off a successful season and I'm sure they feel pretty good about themselves."

Cleveland Indians have Terry Talkin' Yandy Diaz, player moves -- Terry Pluto

on April 22, 2017 at 8:38 AM, updated April 22, 2017 at 2:02 PM

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Where will Yandy Diaz play?

That's one of the big questions the Cleveland Indians need to answer as they send their prized young hitter to the minors.

Here's the situation:

1. Diaz made the team as a third baseman because second baseman Jason Kipnis suffered a shoulder injury in spring training, requiring Jose Ramirez to shift from third to second.

2. Diaz has played more third base than anything else in the minors. His defense was solid to good with the Tribe. That was a surprise after he struggled defensively in spring training. Fangraphs.com rated him No. 7 out of 13 starting third basemen in the American League. So the analytics matched the eye test.

3. Diaz hit into some bad luck. He also hit a lot of ground balls. That's why he had only one extra base hit (a double) in 55 at-bats. Diaz was hitting .236 (.550 OPS) with two RBI. He had some rookie struggles in his first taste of the majors.

4. Baseball executives have told me that about 80 percent of big-league players have to return to the minors at least once early in their careers. It took Ramirez two full seasons (2014-15) of trips to and from Class AAA Columbus before he had his breakthrough 2016 season in Cleveland.

5. Prospects coming up during the middle of the summer sometimes have more success than those who debut in the start of the season. Why? When a player is promoted during the season, he usually is hitting well. His confidence is high. They tend to find warm weather when they arrive, compared to April.

6. Starting the season in the majors for the first time brings a little doubt. Everything is new. The awe factor is real. The quality of pitching -- breaking balls especially -- when playing for real in April also is a factor.

7. So there is no reason for alarm about Diaz. He is a career .307 hitter in the minors. While he is 25, he didn't sign with the Tribe until 2014. The Cuban native just needs to play.

8. The Indians may work on his swing a bit, helping him to hit more balls in the air. He is strong and can hit for more power. He's 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, a lot of muscle packed into that frame. He had only 18 HR in 333 minor-league games. Power tends to come later in a young player's career.

9. Do the Indians play Diaz at third? Gio Urshela is playing that spot at Columbus. But the Indians are now going to use Urshela at shortstop at times, a position he played in spring training. Urshela could become an utility infielder. That opens third for Diaz, where he played Saturday.

10. In the outfield are Brad Zimmer, Tyler Naquin, Richie Shaffer and Jordan Smith. The real prospects are Naquin and Zimmer. Since being sent to the minors, Naquin is hitting .300 (6-for-20) with one extra base hit entering the week.

11. Zimmer had a monster spring training, but Class AAA has been an early challenge. He is batting .241 with 2 HR and 6 RBI. The main concern is 18 strikeouts in 54 at-bats. He has power, eight extra base hits already. So the outfield looks like another spot for Diaz, and it could be a place where he can grab some playing time in Cleveland.

ABOUT THE TRIBE

1. The Indians are excited to have Michael Brantley back healthy. Even more thrilling is his power. He's smashed two homers. Heading into the weekend, Brantley has five extra base hits in 51 plate appearances. Last year, he batted only 43 times -- zero homers, two extra base hits.

2. The power totals from the last two years reveal much about Brantley's shoulder. Even when he did try to play last season, he had little strength in that surgically repaired right shoulder. Then he needed surgery on his right biceps. This season, he not only feels good, he obviously is stronger.

3. The Indians still have to give Brantley some time off. They also don't want him diving for balls and banging into walls. He's not banned from doing that, but playing it safe just makes more sense.

4. Last week, there was a report about the Tribe trying to sign Carlos Santana to an extension. He is a free agent at the end of the season. Nothing happened on that front. It's difficult for Santana and the Tribe to figure out his value. He is making $12 million this season. Part of the reason the Tribe signed Edwin Encarnacion ($60 million over 3 years) is for protection in case Santana leaves via free agency.

5. The Indians don't talk about it, but there is concern about Yan Gomes' hitting. The catcher remains strong defensively. But he entered the weekend batting .121 (4-of-33). He has 10 strikeouts and only one extra base hit. Since the start of the 2015 season, Gomes is batting only .201 in 690 plate appearances.

6. Watching Cody Allen recently, I kept thinking, "This guy strikes out about everybody." Dating back to the 2016 season, 38 of his 59 outs have been via the strikeout. He has allowed only one run in 19 1/3 innings.

7. I wrote about Allen in spring training. He is one of my favorite people on the team. One of his goals was to avoid a lousy April, by far his worst month (5.36 career ERA). He has allowed only one run in 5 2/3 innings this season.

8. At Class AAA Columbus, starters Mike Clevinger (2-0, 0.47 ERA) and Ryan Merritt (2-1, 3.63 ERA) are off to strong starts. Merritt threw four scoreless innings in his last start. Lefty Kyle Crockett (1.29 ERA) has been effective and could help in the bullpen at some point.

9. Phenom catcher Francisco Meija is batting .368 (.948 OPS) with 7 RBI at Class AA Akron. The 21-year-old switch-hitter had a 50-game hitting streak in Class A last season, batting .342 overall. He was 7-for-19 in spring training with the Tribe. In a few years, the Indians may be very grateful that trade for Jonathan Lucroy fell through last season, because Meija was part of that deal.

10. I wondered how Clint Frazier was doing with the Yankees. The former 2013 first-round pick entered the weekend batting .209 (.689 OPS) with 1 HR and 7 RBI at Class AAA Scranton. He was sent to New York as part of last summer's Andrew Miller deal.

11. Also in that trade was lefty Justus Sheffield, who has allowed only one earned run in 11 2/3 Class AA innings. He could end up being the best player in the deal for the Yankees. Meanwhile, Miller is one of the reasons Tribe fans can have World Series dreams.

12. Every few days, I marvel at Jose Ramirez. He has power. He doesn't strike out a lot. He can play second, short, third and left. He is only 24, but seems older. He first came to Cleveland late in the 2013 season, so there is reason to believe he will continue to improve, especially as hitter.

I agree on Jose. The guy always seems to be hitting the ball hard. Yet, he is selective and rarely strikes out.

All great signs.

or juice