Cleveland Indians have Terry Talkin' search for a hitter -- Terry Pluto


CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Talking about the Cleveland Indians and their search for a slugger:

1. I would be very surprised if the Indians sign Edwin Encarnacion to anything longer than a two-year contract. He'll turn 34 on January 7. It's hard to imagine the Tribe going long-term on a player who is entering the danger zone of his career in terms of production in the next few years. The pain of signing a 32-year-old Nick Swisher to a four-year deal in 2013 has not been forgotten.

2. I also would be shocked if Encarnacion ended up with the Indians. That would indicate his value has really dropped. They are not going to pay anything close to what the Toronto DH is looking for. It may work out for Encarnacion, but he and his agent seem to have made a bad call when turning down a four-year, $80 million offer from Mark Shapiro and the Blue Jays. This is a year when there are a lot of power bats available via free agency.

3. Encarnacion belted 42 HR with 99 RBI while batting .263 (.886 OPS) for the Blue Jays last season. His 127 strikeouts were a career-high. He did have 702 plate appearance as he played 160 games. He was at first base for 75 games, the rest at DH.

4. I've been told Encarnacion's defense is slipping. But fangraphs.com rated him the No. 7 fielding first baseman out of 19 in the American League. By comparison, Mike Napoli was No. 15. Carlos Santana rated a surprising No. 4.

5. Napoli's defense took a big drop. He was rated No. 4 in 2015. The Indians thought he'd be an upgrade at first over Santana, but most analytics services rated Santana as the better defender at first base in 2016.

6. Napoli did not receive a lot of interest at the MLB Winter Meetings, other than teams interested in signing him to a one-year deal. Napoli is 35 years old. He had the best season of his career: .239 (.800 OPS), 34 HR and 101 RBI. He set a team record with 194 strikeouts. His presence in the middle of the lineup was a huge help to Carlos Santana, who no longer felt the pressure of having to deliver homers as a cleanup hitter.

7. With Napoli batting fourth, Santana sometimes hit leadoff ... or No. 5. And he hit a career-high 34 homers. Some of it had to do with the addition of Napoli. The Indians know that. Just as they know Napoli is a major asset in the clubhouse. The last time the Indians had a right-handed batter with at least 30 HR in a season was Ellis Burks in 2002.

8. I mention all the good things about Napoli because it's easy to dwell on his awful finish. He batted .140 with 5 HR and 13 RBI in 114 plate appearances after September 1 in the regular season. The slump continued in the postseason, as he batted .179 with 1 HR and 3 RBI in 15 games.

9. So the temptation is to wonder if Napoli just had a long slump -- something he has done before -- or if age is catching up with him. That's why teams so far have been reluctant to offer more than a one-year deal. It's also why the Indians so far are holding to that contract position.

10. Mark Trumbo falls into the same class as Encarnacion. He is younger -- only 30. He is so-so at first base. But he also is very expensive, and the Indians are not going to play the big money/long contract game for a DH/1B player.

11. Chris Carter led all of the Majors with 41 HR last season for the Milwaukee Brewers. They didn't offer him a contract. It's hard to watch a player who led the National League with 206 strikeouts while batting .222. Over the last three years, Carter has averaged 34 HR, 82 RBI, 179 strikeouts while hitting .218 (.790 OPS). He ranked No. 15 defensively at first base in the National League, according to fangraphs.

12. Carter is probably a one-year, fall-back option for teams hoping to sign Encarnacion, Trumbo or Napoli. He is 30 and considered in his prime, but he is such an undisciplined hitter and a liability in the field.

13. The Texas Rangers lost Carlos Beltran (Houston), Ian Desmond (Colorado) and Mitch Moreland (Boston) via free agency. The Rangers will probably be destined for one of the three power hitters, unless they surprise and trade for a quality bat.

14. The Rangers still have former Indian Shin-Soo Choo. In 2014, he signed a seven-year, $130 million free agent contract with Texas. Since that deal, he's a .258 hitter (.758 OPS), averaging 14 HR and 48 RBI. He played only 48 games last season because of a broken forearm.

15. Choo is now 34, and he has four years and $82 million left on his contract. Tribe president Chris Antonetti made an outstanding trade after the 2012 season involving Choo, who was shipped to the Cincinnati Reds. The Tribe still has Trevor Bauer and Bryan Shaw remaining from that trade. Choo spent a year with the Reds, then left for Texas via free agency.

16. I've heard Justin Morneau mentioned in connection with the Indians. It would not be as cleanup hitter to replace Napoli. Rather, it would be as another veteran bat for Terry Francona to use a few games each week. Morneau was coming off major elbow surgery, and he played only 58 games for the Chicago White Sox last season: .261 (.731 OPS), 6 HR and 25 RBI. He didn't join the team until June.

17. The lefty hitting Morneau is 35. He probably is mostly a DH at this point in his career. He has battled neck problems and other injuries. From 2014-16, he batted .304 (.822 OPS), averaging 9 HR and 41 RBI in 280 at bats per season.

18. The Indians have expressed some casual interest in Trevor Plouffe, a third baseman who also can play first. He batted .247 (.727 OPS) with 22 HR and 80 RBI for the Twins last season. He also seems to be the kind of player who can thrive when managed by Francona.

19. The Indians received several trade offers for Yandy Diaz, who is the best candidate to be the Tyler Naquin of 2017. Diaz batted .318 (.854 OPS) with 9 HR and 58 RBI, splitting last season between Class AA Akron and Class AAA Columbus. The 24-year-old is hitting .356 in Venezuela. His minor league stats are more impressive than what Naquin brought to the Majors. He plays some third base and outfield. The Tribe believes Diaz is a big-league ready hitter.

20. The Tribe remains interested in bringing back Rajai Davis on a one-year contract. The 36-year-old stolen base champ wants a two-year deal. So far, no teams are interested in him at that price.



ABOUT THE YANKEES

When I was writing "The Inside Story of how the Tribe Traded for Andrew Miller," I was warned that Aroldis Chapman would end up back with the New York Yankees.

New York general manager Brian Cashman traded Miller to the Tribe for four prospects. He also traded Chapman to the Chicago Cubs for four more prospects.

In the story, I mentioned the strong possibility of Chapman returning to the Yankees.

That happened during the Winter Meetings, the Cuban lefty signing a stunning five-year, $86 million deal.

Here are some details:

An $11 million signing bonus, $15 million per season for five years.
A full no-trade clause in the first three seasons.
A no-trade clause to some West Coast teams for all five seasons.
He can opt out of the contract after three seasons.

We have never seen anything close to this lucrative a contract for a relief pitcher.

The 28-year-old Chapman has an astounding arm. His average fastball was 100.4 mph last season. With the Yankees and Cubs, he had a 4-1 record, 1.55 ERA and was 36-of-39 in saves.

Chapman has a suspension for domestic violence in his background.

In the postseason, he allowed six earned runs in 15 2/3 innings. He was good, but not great. He blew three saves.

Rajai Davis also hammered that memorable home run off Chapman in Game 7 of the World Series.

Having watched Miller and Chapman in the postseason, I much prefer Miller. Suddenly, the Tribe lefty's contract ($9 million annually in 2017 and 2018) looks very modest.

Miller allowed three runs in 19 1/3 postseason innings, two of them were in his final appearance. The Indians had used him a lot, and he was clearly tired.

I bring this up because last weekend I wrote about how the new Baseball Basic Agreement will do virtually nothing to stop the major market teams from spending big. It was basically a status quo deal.

The Yankees proved the point by signing Chapman. They didn't even have to give up a draft pick.

Meanwhile, Indians closer Cody Allen has thrown 14 scoreless postseason innings in his career. He was 6-of-6 in save situations.

During the regular season, Allen was 32-of-35 in saves with a 2.51 ERA. He is an outstanding reliever.

The Allen/Miller combo is a major reason the Indians reached the World Series. They allowed only three runs in 33 postseason innings.

While Allen will pocket some serious cash because he's eligible for arbitration, he can't be a free agent until after the 2018 season -- the same for Miller.

Morneau and Plouffe are interesting options.

Plouffe primarily to hit lefties. Morneau? Worth a 1 year shot?

Glad to get a little more back up on my opinion of Napoli's defense this year. I didn't think I was crazy, and never watched any games while tripping on LSD. Ranked 15th in the AL at 1B. There are 15 teams in AL, so, he was not good.

And got a little back up on Yandy too.

I'd plug him in at 1B this coming season before I'd pay Napoli league minimum for 1 year.

I don't know about those 1B rankings, Hillbilly. When Santana is rated #4, something is wrong.

Ditto. We know that can't be right. And Tito knew better, which is why Santana was usually DH.

Well I still trust my own eyes, Seagull.

From what I read at the O's web site, they have made a practice of going after and keeping Rule 5 picks in recent years. Included was TJ McFarland, lefty from the Tribe about 5 years back. That said, they also drafted another OF ahead of Santander this go around, and this kid has AA and AAA experience and is not coming off surgery. That guy could be expected to contribute right away so conceivable that they could also keep Santander and stash him on the DL as much of the season as possible.

I had forgotten this mess with all the mess that came after but this was terrible

What could have been: The Roberto Alomar trade
Tony Lastoria
TONY LASTORIA
10:41 AM
The IBI's Tony Lastoria takes a look back on the monumental Roberto Alomar trade from 15 years ago...

This article was originally published a few years ago but has been updated with the 15-year anniversary of this trade passing earlier this week.
The 15-year anniversary of the Roberto Alomar trade passed on Sunday.
In what seems like a lifetime ago, it is amazing that it has now been 15 years since that trade was consummated on December 11, 2001. It is a trade that signaled a dramatic change in the direction of the Cleveland Indians franchise and two rebuilds, and is probably the kickoff point of what has been a 15-year war between some fans and ownership.
A lot of people point to the Brandon Phillips debacle in April of 2006 as one of former GM Mark Shapiro’s worst decisions, but his worst move was his handling of the Robbie Alomar trade and the lack of talent that resulted from that trade.
The Indians traded Roberto Alomar, Mike Baczik, and Danny Peoples to the New York Mets for Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar, Billy Traber, Jerrod Riggan, and Earl Snyder. Four years later, none of the five players obtained from the Mets were still in the Indians organization.
When you trade a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer who came off a very good 2001 season and arguably the best three-year run in his career, you better nail it with the players acquired in the deal. The Indians’ intent in the deal was to get some good, young Major League ready talent in return, but in the end not even one core player came from that trade.
The fact the Indians never had anything to show from the Alomar trade is mind-boggling. Forget that Alomar’s career plummeted at a ridiculous rate upon being traded and he really did nothing once he left the Indians. The fact is, at the time of the trade, he was the best second baseman in baseball and one of the game’s elite players who was still performing at a high level. For players like this, you usually get tons of talent dumped in your lap in a trade, which the Indians thought happened.
Shapiro’s mistake was the double whammy bad move where the prospects he received in return for Alomar bombed, and the Major League player he received in the deal - Matt Lawton - was immediately given an unnecessary four-year $27 million contract extension.
To make matters worse, Shapiro piggybacked the trade by signing Ricky Gutierrez to play second base with a three year deal totaling just short of $12 million. So make that a triple whammy bad move. In one fell swoop, Shapiro ended up making three mistakes all in one with the players he obtained for Alomar, extending Lawton, and then signing Gutierrez to replace Alomar. Ouch.
The idea behind trading Alomar made sense for the Indians. After they lost over $14 million in 2001 with a payroll just over $92 million, third year owner Larry Dolan required payroll be cut to the high $70 million range. With a payroll cut looming, a rapidly aging team, and a barren cupboard in the minor leagues to replenish needs at the Major League level, Shapiro saw an opportunity to address those needs by dealing Alomar.
Before the trade, the Indians farm system was devoid of much talent heading into 2002 (ranked 20th by Baseball America). At the time of the trade, Escobar was the Mets #2 rated prospect and Traber their #5 rated prospect. That same year, Jose Reyes was the Mets #3 rated prospect and David Wright their #7 rated prospect.
It goes without saying that for Alomar, the type of prospect return and Major League results for those players would have been along the lines of Reyes and Wright. In other words, players that would become very good Major Leaguers and core pieces of the team in the near future. Wow, imagine if either one or both of Reyes and Wright were in a Cleveland uniform during the prime of their careers from 2005-2011, or longer?
In fairness to Shapiro, Escobar and Traber were much closer to the Major League doorstep, while Reyes and Wright were still very green and in the lower levels of the Mets minor league system. Shapiro’s goal with the trade was not to rebuild, but to retool with Major League ready young talent. Had he been in full blown rebuild mode like he was six months later with the Bartolo Colon trade, he probably ends up with Reyes and maybe even Wright instead.
In dealing for Escobar, Shapiro obtained a player with big-time prospect status as he had been ranked #1 in the Mets system three years in a row from 1999-2001 and #2 in 2002. Escobar was viewed as the top prize acquired in the trade, and a player the Indians viewed as a long-term solution in the outfield.
But Shapiro was really gambling on Escobar’s durability, something that was a big reach considering the red flags with health issues his entire time in the Mets system. From the day he signed with the Mets he had health issues. In his first two seasons (1996-1997) he only played in a total of 60 games and accumulated 184 at bats because of hamstring issues. Even after exploding onto the scene in 1998 in the South Atlantic League when he hit .310 with 27 HR, 91 RBI, 49 stolen bases and .947 OPS he was still hampered by nagging injuries as he was limited to 112 games. That season he was tabbed the league’s best prospect, and was starting to be compared to a young Vladimir Guerrero.
Then came 1999. Escobar managed to play in only three games because he spent the first half of the season recovering from a lower back injury, then shortly after he returned he separated his shoulder on a home run swing.
Escobar came back in 2000 and hit .288 with 16 HR, 67 RBI, 24 steals and .863 OPS in 122 games at Double-A, and then in 2001 he hit .267 with 12 HR, 52 RBI, 18 steals and .758 OPS in 111 games at Triple-A. While he was relatively healthy both years, the numbers were in decline. Looking at the drop in production it looks as if the injuries not only were starting to affect his talent as his speed and power dropped significantly, but also affected his development.
The next year during his first spring training with the Indians in 2002, Escobar went crashing into the center-field wall and tore his ACL and pretty much ended his days as a high-level prospect. A little over two years later, Escobar was released late in the 2004 season.
The other highlight in the deal was soft-tossing left-handed pitcher Billy Traber. He was selected by the Mets in the first round of the 2000 Amateur Draft, and was the first lefty taken off the board (16th overall). However, like Escobar, injury concerns quickly surfaced with Traber.
Traber was set to sign a $1.7 million signing bonus pending completion of a physical, and when the MRI was completed it revealed abnormalities in his pitching elbow which pointed to possible damage to the medial collateral ligament (MCL) of his pitching elbow. As a result, he still signed, but had to settle for a $400,000 bonus and ended up signing a 2001 contract thereby shutting him down for the 2000 minor league season.
Traber was healthy in 2001 and pitched like a man on a mission. He started the year in High-A and advanced three levels all the way to Triple-A compiling a 10-9 record and 3.09 ERA in 27 starts (151.1 IP, 140 H, 36 BB, 124 K). But scouts were still concerned about the elbow.
Upon joining the Indians, Traber pitched very well in 2002 at Double-A Akron and Triple-A Buffalo going a combined 17-5 with a 2.94 ERA in 27 starts (162.1 IP, 157 H, 32 BB, 115K). He also pitched well in 2003 with the Indians, including a magnificent complete game one-hit shutout of the Yankees that year.
It looked like the Indians had found a gem, but the injury concerns surrounding Traber soon surfaced late in 2003 when he went down with an arm injury that required Tommy John surgery. He missed all of the 2004 season, returned to the Indians in 2005, and was never the same and was gone after that season.
Jerrod Riggan was not a top prospect at the time of the trade, although he did rank in the teens in the 2002 Mets prospect rankings. He was viewed as more of a player who could help the organization in the short term out of the bullpen. He had some experience as a Major League reliever in 2001 as he posted a 3-3 record and 3.40 ERA in 35 appearances out of the Mets bullpen.
After the trade Riggan pitched well at Triple-A Buffalo in 2002 going 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA in 28 games before he was called up to Cleveland, but he never found himself and struggled going 2-1 with a 7.64 ERA in 29 appearances that year in Cleveland. He stuck around for half the season in 2003 before the Indians released him. He never pitched in the big leagues again and was out of baseball after the 2005 season.
As for Earl Snyder, he was a throw-in and pretty much became a career “4A” player in Triple-A bouncing around from team to team. He was out of the Indians organization after the 2002 season.
Shapiro’s mistake was not the fact he traded Alomar because he actually traded him at the most opportune time when his value was very high and he was about to go in sharp decline. But the prospect choices Shapiro made were awful, and to top it off in response to the trade they saddled the team with some horrible contracts for Lawton and Gutierrez that took a few years to get out from under.
This was Shapiro’s first notable trade as general manager of the Indians and was his worst during his nine-year tenure. Thankfully, he learned his lesson quickly with his next big trade six months later when he dealt Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee. While he earned the golden sombrero by striking out four times on the prospects in the Alomar deal, he hit a game winning walkoff grand slam in the Colon deal.
The damage from the first trade of Alomar affected the Indians for years as they lost potential core pieces for the future of the team. Imagine had they acquired Jose Reyes and David Wright instead. Those two may have put them over the top to win a World Series during their previous window of contention from 2004 to 2009.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but the Alomar trade was a complete disaster.

Ken

Thanks for depressing the shit out of me.

Let's not forget Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens...

I have never forgotten the Phillips mess. That trade manufactured by Shapiro and his partner Wedgeee turned me and I am sure a lot of Tribe fans off. I think the reason why the Phillips trade is so gauling is that Shapiro had staked his reputation on the Bartolo Fat Colon deal and with the subsequent trade he essentially ruined the first one. Of course Bartolo Fat Colon is still pitching which makes the whole thing even worse. For some reason the Alomar trade which clearly ruined the team's rebuild gets lost in the memory. I wonder what advanced stats would say about all 3 of these deals. Just think about it. Wedgee the Shocker turned off an entire generation of potential Indians fans. I dont think an OPS of 758 in AAA is too good but who am I.

Does anyone actually read Ken's posts?

How about Casey Blake for Carlos Santana?
How about Esmail Rogers for Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles?
How about Larry Doby for Tito Francona?
Feel free to offer a bunch of trades that didn't work out in response.

civ ollilavad wrote:How about Casey Blake for Carlos Santana?
How about Esmail Rogers for Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles?
How about Larry Doby for Tito Francona?
Feel free to offer a bunch of trades that didn't work out in response.

Norm Cash for Steve Demeter!

I have a friend who cannot shut up about the Norm Cash for Steve Demeter trade.
As a Yankees fan he also recalls the various deals by which we surrendered Nettles and Chambliss for a long list of Charlie Spikeses, Rusty Torreses, John Ellises, Freddy Beenes, Tom Buskeys, etc. etc.