Cleveland Sports Forum

This guy has been nothing but a tease. Huge key to the season:

What can we expect from Carlos Santana (and where can we expect him) in 2016?

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- He's a polarizing figure because of his patience at the plate and his shortcomings as a middle-of-the-order slugger.

This spring, however, Carlos Santana is more than maddening or valuable or whatever adjective best describes the 29-year-old. He's a nomad, a hitter on the Indians without a default defensive position, thanks to the Indians' acquisition of Mike Napoli, who figures to start at first base.

Napoli isn't going to play 162 games, so we can start there. Santana should still see some time at first. Where else, though, will Santana bide his time? Two years ago, he began the season as the third baseman. Yan Gomes forced Santana from behind the plate during the summer of 2013. Last year, Santana shifted across the infield on a full-time basis.

Now, he's a man who appears relegated to the designated hitter role. That is, unless manager Terry Francona can get creative (and presuming that Santana is worthy of a spot in the field at all). Francona has hinted this winter that Santana could see some time in left field this spring. The Indians will have an abundance of outfielders in camp, but none -- other than Rajai Davis, perhaps -- who seem to be an obvious choice to replace Michael Brantley in the early going. Could Santana be a fit?

Terry Francona on Carlos Santana's position for 2016

"Carlos can play first, DH and, who knows, he may even be able to play a few more positions," Francona said. "He's played third in the past."

Francona admitted late last season that Santana isn't an ideal No. 4 hitter. Would the team be best served by Santana batting near the top of the order? Is there enough power elsewhere in the order to afford to have Santana hitting lower?

Seven items on Terry Francona's to-do list as Cleveland Indians open spring training

Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com
on February 17, 2016 at 6:02 AM, updated February 17, 2016 at 6:10 AM

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Seven things on manager Terry Francona's to do list as Indians' pitchers and catchers report to Goodyear, Ariz., on Wednesday for the start of spring training.

1. Conquer April: The last time the Indians had a winning record in April was 2012 under former manager Manny Acta. The fast start did not bode well for Acta or the Indians as he was fired late in the year and they finished 68-94.

The Indians are 29-44 in March and April in three years under Francona. In May they are 50-37 so they've shown the ability to bounce back, but have made the postseason only once. This year the Tribe should be helped because it plays just nine games against the AL Central in April.

2. Pick a leadoff hitter: The candidates are Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and Rajai Davis. Francona has mentioned a couple of times that he's considered having Carlos Santana leadoff because of his ability to draw walks, but he was apparently kidding.

Kipnis did a great job in the leadoff spot last year, but with No.3 hitter Michael Brantley scheduled to open the season on the disabled list following surgery on his righty shoulder, here's a hunch that Kipnis will hit third and Lindor will move into the leadoff spot.

3. Stand tall in AL Central, aka beat the Tigers: The Indians were a pitiful 32-43 in the AL Central last season. They didn't have a winning record against one division foe. In 2013 and 2014, Francona's first two years with the Indians, they posted a combined 83-69 record against the Central so it's not like their helpless.

Their one constant nemesis, however, has been the Tigers. Detroit is 37-19 against Francona's Indians, including a 15-4 beatdown in 2013. If the Indians are going to win the division or make the postseason as a wild card, they have to find away to beat the Detroit.

One suggestion: intentionally walk Miguel Cabrera whenever he comes to the plate.

4. Make a decision at third base: Can Francona afford to stay with Giovanny Urshela at the hot corner? If the Indians don't acquire a veteran such as Juan Uribe or David Freese, it's an easy decision. Urshela showed a good glove last year, but didn't do much with the bat as he dealt with back, knee and shoulder issues.

If the Indians sign Uribe, Urshela could still make the team because Uribe, 36, isn't going to play every day. Freese, however, can still play every day, which would probably put Urshela in the minors.

Urshela surfaced in 2014 when he had a big year at the plate at Class AA Akron and Class AAA Columbus. Injuries stalled that upward trend last year, but should the Indians get the impression that Urshela is back on track this spring they might just ride with him.

GM Mike Chernoff says the Indians are still looking for ways to improve their offense. They have talked about surrendering their No.1 pick in this June's draft in that pursuit, but that seems unlikely.

5. Pick a left-hander for the bullpen: Francona has a bunch of right-handed relievers who get lefties out, but he's going to need at least one left-hander in the pen come opening day. So far he's got five to pick from. Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto are on the 40-man, while veterans Tom Gorzelanny, Joe Thatcher and Ross Detwiler are coming to camp on minor league deals.

Just a guess, but I'm going with Gorzelanny, who pitched with Detroit last year and knows the division. The Indians signed him after noticing that he lowered his arm slot last season, which made him much more effective against lefties.

The Indians have 30 pitchers reporting to spring training on Wednesday in Goodyear, Ariz. They're looking to add at least one more reliever to help the bullpen.

6. Protect Lindor and Brantley: Lindor is coming off a big rookie year and he's going to under the magnifying glass. Brantley is recovering from right shoulder surgery and has already been pushing the envelope in his rehab.

There will probably come a time this season where Francona is going to have to protect both players from themselves. This is one of Francona's strength.

7. Convince Trevor Bauer that walks hurt: The relationship between Francona and Bauer has been fascinating to watch. Francona has coddled Bauer at times and hung him out to dry at others. I would think the two have reached some kind of resolution by now.

Let us hope that resolution involves Bauer throwing more strikes. Last season he became the first Indians pitcher to lead the AL in walks since Sam McDowell in 1971. Bauer said the walks never bothered him, but if he threw fewer of them he'd be a better pitcher and the Indians would be a better team.

The Washington Post predicts the Indians to win the division:

Cleveland Indians

2015 record and finish: 81-80, third

2016 FanGraphs projection: 84-78, first

2016 Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection: 90-72, first

Significant additions: 1B Mike Napoli, OF Rajai Davis, RP Tommy Hunter, RP Craig Stammen

Significant losses: SP Shaun Marcum, 3B/1B Chris Johnson, IF Mike Aviles

Why they’ll win the division: The rotation finally converts performance and ability to wins.

Corey Kluber surprisingly won the American League Cy Young award in 2014. Last year, his ERA jumped from 2.44 to 3.49, and his record said he went 9-16. Lousy year, right? Not so. Kluber had a lower WHIP than his Cy Young year (and was third in the AL), ranked sixth in the AL in FIP (fielding independent pitching, which eliminates defensive factors) and fourth in strikeouts per nine innings. This all indicates Kluber is still excellent, and his results should follow. Say that for the entire Cleveland staff. No rotation in baseball posted a higher strikeout rate (24.2 percent). Cleveland starters led the AL in WHIP and in FIP. Danny Salazar is coming off his first 185-inning, 30-start season and throws the ball harder than all but three AL starters – a tick faster than teammate Carlos Carrasco, who checks in at 94.5 mph with his average fastball (down from Salazar’s 94.9). The guts of the Indians rotation ranks among the AL leaders in strikeout percentage: Carrasco second (29.6 percent), Kluber fourth (27.7), Salazar fifth (25.8) and Trevor Bauer ninth (22.9). That’s a rotation with enough pure stuff to push a team to a division title.

Most significant question: Is Francisco Lindor ready to carry a team?

Jason Kipnis is one of the game’s best second basemen, a two-time all-star coming off his best season (.303 average, .823 OPS). But Lindor turned 22 in the offseason. He is coming off a 99-game rookie debut in which he hit .313, slugged 38 extra-base hits in 438 plate appearances and posted an .835 OPS that trailed only fellow rookie Carlos Correa (who beat Lindor for rookie of the year honors) among shortstops with at least 400 plate appearances. He has the talent. Offensively, this could be his team. The questions: With opening day just his 100th major-league game, can he endure a full season the way he did his first four months? Will the league figure him out at all?

Spring training battle to watch: Rajai Davis and Collin Cowgill vs. the void in left field

Regular left fielder Michael Brantley had surgery to repair damage in his right (non-throwing) shoulder in November. This leaves a slew of folks trying to fill in for the first month or two of the season, led by former Tigers player Davis. Brantley, though, is coming off two superb seasons — .319 average and .876 OPS with 90 doubles and 35 homers in 2014-15 combined – and is a staple in Cleveland’s lineup. His injury will test the Indians’ depth early and put pressure on Davis, Cowgill and others.

Did you realize?: How much of a playoff drought this is in Cleveland?

We know, we know, if you live by the lake, you’re all too aware. (And LeBron hasn’t won a title with the Cavs yet, either, has he?) But in the eight seasons since they blew a 3-games-to-1 lead in the ALCS to Boston, the Indians have played one playoff game – hosting the wild-card game in 2013, which they lost to Tampa Bay. The only other teams without a division series appearance since that time: Seattle, Miami and San Diego.

Here's the whole article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/spo ... &tid=ss_tw

Terry Pluto:

Numbers geeks figure Indians can win

As I write this, the snow is still falling in Northeast Ohio.

In Goodyear, it's a blue Arizona sky with a temperature of 72. The predicted high for Tuesday was 87 at the spring training home of the Tribe.

And if you're a Tribe fan, Baseball Prospectus just came in with its preseason predictions.

The Indians?

Give them a 92-70 record, best in the American League. That PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) projection came out Tuesday morning, 24 hours before Tribe pitchers and catchers officially report to training camp.

Ninety-two wins? I don't know if I should say ... WOW!

Or maybe I should say ... Really?

The analytics types love the 2016 Indians.

Fangraphs has the Tribe winning 85 games, because they're in the Central Division.

ESPN numbers guy Doug Schoenfield has the Tribe with an 85-77 record. He believes that could be enough to grab the second wild-card spot.

For some context, PECOTA predicted the Tribe would be 81-81 last season. They finished 81-80.

Now, they say 92 wins ...

From their computers to the ears of the baseball gods.

No big deals

The Tribe is an analytics- driven front office, and that's probably why they made no major off-season trades. The numbers say the most valuable players are good starting pitchers. It's why the Tribe keeps getting high ratings from these services.

It's also why Chris Antonetti and his staff decided not to trade any of their starting pitchers for hitters.


Not even Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson or prospect Mike Clevinger.

The Tribe had an 81-80 record last season with the second-best ERA (3.67) in the American League.

But they were No. 11 in runs scored.

I talked to Terry Francona in December and he was adamant about keeping the pitching staff together. So holding on to the starting pitching was not just the idea of Antonetti and General Manager Mike Chernoff.

In fact, Francona said he really didn't give any serious thought to trading a key pitcher. He wants to keep them all, even if it means trying to win games by scores of 3-2 and 4-3.

They hate the Royals

The last time the Tribe made the playoffs was 2013. They finished with a record of 92-70, the same as the PECOTA projections for 2016.

That 2013 team was No. 7 in pitching (3.82 ERA) but No. 4 in runs scored.

The biggest surprise in the spring predictions is not that many experts like the Tribe. The staff of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer is the real thing.

They have Tomlin and Anderson competing for the No. 5 spot. They are upbeat about TJ House coming back from shoulder surgery and pitching as he did in 2014, when the lefty was 5-3 with a 3.35 ERA in 19 games.

Clevinger was 9-8 with a 2.73 ERA at Class AA, and the Tribe believes he can be the Cody Anderson of 2016 — the guy who shoots through Class AAA to the majors.

The biggest shock is the disdain for the Kansas City Royals.

In 2014, the Royals won 89 regular-season games and advanced to the World Series. In 2015, they won 95 games and won the World Series.

Fangraphs has them at 7983. Fangraphs also had them at 79-83 in 2015.

It's their story, and they are sticking to it.

PECOTA had the Royals at 72-90 in 2015. This season, the prediction is 76-86.

Will they be right?

If you are a Tribe fan, hope the stats geeks have it right. If the Royals collapse, the door will be open for the Tribe.

Most casual Northeast Ohio sports fans seem to have little interest in the Tribe. They are stuck in the ''ownership won't spend'' lament, and there is reason for that.

But they ignore the fact that the team has had three consecutive winning seasons, all since Francona arrived. And the front office has made more good deals than bad over the last few years.

And the key members of the pitching staff are not only gifted, but they are signed up for several years.

The Indians should be contenders for at least a few years.

But what they need this year is a good start, a strong finish and for the national experts to be right about them landing in the postseason.

Was watching guys on MLB Network talk about this.

Apparently PECOTA puts a pretty high premium on STARTING pitching. They also picked Tampa Bay in the East, so that says it all.

It's a pretty flawed system, easy to see liking the Indians with a system that values starting pitching, but we all know the offensive weaknesses.

The White Sox could be a major player this year.
Offense: Advantage Sox
Defense: Advantage Indians
Pitching: Close call goes to the Indians (How close depends on Danks & Latos Vs Bauer & Tomlin
Offense:
C: Advantage Indians
1B: Advantage Sox
2B: Advantage Indians
SS: Advantage Indians
3B: Advantage Sox
LF: Advantage Sox (-Brantley) Melky vs Michael ???
CF: Advantage Sox
RF: Advantage Sox (By a narrow margin (Garcia vs Chisenhall)
SP: Advantage Indians (Close Call)
RP: Advantage Sox
DH: Advantage Indians


The way I seeze it; just my opinion of course!

I think you have it nailed pretty well joez

I would disagree with SP (to me it's not that close in Tribe's favor) and RP. Didn't the Tribe have the 2nd best ERA in the bullpen last year?

So until I see otherwise, I like our pen better. But yes, most skill positions to the White Sox.

Oh, and 1B/DH depends on whether you use Abreu or LaRoche at which one? Abreu is often the DH so advantage Sox there.

Only 19 games against the Sox. 143 against the rest of baseball.

Nice paper exercise.

Means nothing.

Nice article by Bob Nightingale on ideas to get youth players excited again about playing baseball.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ml ... /80468196/

I don't know TFIR. I did another paper exercise. Fan Graphs pitching staff analyses this year has the Indians at #5 and the Sox at #6 in their rankings. The Dodgers are #1, Mets #2, Cubs #3 and the Nats #4.

They have Sale/Quintana/Rodon ranked right up there with Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar. In my opinion, the difference would come from the $4 and #5 spots in the rotation. Tomlin has to repeat his success of 2015.

SP advantage Indians by a slight margin
Offense advantage Sox
Defense advantage Indians
Bullpen advantage Indians but again not by much.

With Brantley out to start the season and that potent lineup of the sox, it is important to get off to a good start. I would hate to fall too far behind to start the season. It may not be easy to catch up especially in this division where parity comes in to play.

I think the race in the Central will go down to the wire between the Indians and the Sox.

The Tigers and the Royals will be a close 3rd and 4th.

Depending on how well Sano, Buxton, and Arcia progress, the Twins should battle it out with the Royals and the Tigers. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Sano will be the home run champ this year. Buxton could win the Rookie of the Year Award. The twins won't be easy to beat this year.

I think the key to winning this division is taking control of it like it always has been. We just haven't fared too well at it in the past.

This is going to be a fun season to watch. I cancelled all of my video subscriptions last year and I don't plan on renewing this year. I may reconsider after the all-star break. It all depends on where we stand at that time. I will just be content with my "MLB AT BAT" subscription until that time.

How will Terry Francona construct his lineup? Who will bat where in Terry Francona's lineup? There are plenty of question marks.

Zack Meisel, cleveland.com By Zack Meisel, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Terry Francona has six weeks to settle on a lineup for Opening Day. Then, he'll have two days to script a batting order for the Indians' second game.

The lineups for the Tribe's first two tilts could look vastly different. If David Price starts for the Red Sox on April 4 at Progressive Field, Francona might opt to trot out Rajai Davis and Collin Cowgill, a pair of outfielders who have fared better against southpaws during their careers. Against a right-hander, Cleveland's skipper might prefer to insert Lonnie Chisenhall onto his lineup card.

There are plenty of pieces to consider for this lineup puzzle. The composition of the outfield has little clarity at this point, with Michael Brantley's Opening Day status in doubt and with a wide array of outfielders hoping to leave an impression during spring training.

Even the known entities are tough to arrange. If Brantley misses the start of the season, who will bat third?

Manager Terry Francona has been pleased with the progress Michael Brantley has made swinging the bat, but it's still believed he'll open season on the disabled list.

Could Davis excel in the leadoff spot, or is that reserved for Francisco Lindor or Jason Kipnis? Where should Francona slot Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana? Francona has admitted that Santana might fit better near the top of a lineup than in the middle. What other options will Francona have this year?

There is time for everything to sort itself out before the ink dries on Francona's Opening Day lineup, but in the video above, Zack Meisel and Paul Hoynes discuss which players might fit in which spots.

"We'll see what fits the best," Francona said. "We'll probably have some platooning going on, especially earlier in the year."

I just read where Francona is considering Santana for the leadoff spot.

He does walk a lot. Sees a lot of pitches, which helps other batters.

Indians hold first full-squad workout of spring training

Hayden Grove

6:24 PM


GOODYEAR, Ariz. (AP) — As Terry Francona walked out of his office and onto the practice field prior to Cleveland's first full-squad workout on Tuesday, he couldn't help but to be excited.

In front of him was the entire Indians team and an opportunity to do something special this season.

"It's fun to get together as a whole team because that's the day that marks the beginning of all of us together, trying to see if we can do something that's really difficult," Francona said. "That's a pretty big challenge."

That challenge, which is winning a World Series in Cleveland, will begin with a starting staff that should be among the best in baseball.

Boasting arms such as Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer, the Indians felt it best to keep their rotation intact heading into the season, rather than to deal a pitcher away for a big bat.

"The more you saw what pitching was getting, I didn't think we would end up losing any of our pitching," Indians manager Terry Francona said. "They've got a chance to be special."

Though the first four spots in the rotation are essentially set, the fifth spot is up for grabs with Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson the top contenders.

Each pitcher put together a solid 2015 season, setting up a potentially difficult decision for the Indians coaching staff.

"It's usually different guys battling for that spot every year and it's exciting to see," Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway said. "It's really nice for us to have to make a tough decision at the end of spring training."

With Cleveland's best all-around player, Michael Brantley, likely out for the first portion of the 2016 season following shoulder surgery, the competition between those looking to replace him in the outfield will likely be fierce.

Veteran outfielder Rajai Davis signed a one-year deal with the Indians this offseason and should take an immediate spot alongside right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall, but several others will battle it out for the last opening.

Offseason additions Joey Butler, Robbie Grossman and Shane Robinson are three of the outfielders that the Indians brought in to compete for the job, but Abraham Almonte, Zach Walters and Tyler Naquin will have a shot at the spot as well.

As for the rest of the Indians offense, the team will no doubt need contributions from power-hitting right-hander Mike Napoli, who will spend the large majority of his time at first base, as well as solid seasons from 2015 All-Star second baseman Jason Kipnis and second-year shortstop, Francisco Lindor.

Lindor, who finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2015, doesn't feel any added pressure to perform up the high standards he set a year ago.

"I'm looking forward to next year and having my teammates back," Lindor said. "It's going to be fun."

With the offense in question and the staff in place, the Cleveland bullpen features both proven commodities and uncertainty.

Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw will bolster the back end but an assortment of non-roster veterans are also trying to find a spot, including Chamberlain, Ross Detwiler, Tom Gorzelanny and Joe Thatcher.

Francona said he hopes the 2106 journey is special.

"All 30 teams are doing the same thing. You might do it something differently, but they're all trying to do the same thing," Francona said. "You get to start today doing it and it's exciting."
___
NOTES: Francona mentioned that he's thought about Carlos Santana as a leadoff hitter this season. Santana, who has spent most of his career as a middle of the order hitter, gets on base often and has boasted one of the better walk rates in Major League Baseball. ...

After Cody Anderson won the Indians' endurance test when the pitchers and catchers ran last week, Minor League catcher Jeremy Lucas won the position players endurance test on Tuesday. Lucas was supposed to run with the catchers last week, but was added to Cleveland's 40-man roster late, after Tony Wolters was claimed off of waivers by the Colorado Rockies. Francisco Lindor, who won last year's competition, finished in second place. ...

Anderson was also named Cleveland's starter for the team's first Cactus League game of the season on March 1. He will be followed by Josh Tomlin and Carlos Carrasco, as the Indians take on the Reds in the first three games of the Spring Training schedule. ...

Former Indians designated hitter Jason Giambi is with the team as a guest instructor this week. Following his retirement, Giambi took a year away from the game and is now contemplating whether or not he wants to start his post-playing career as a coach.