Cleveland Sports Forum

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/did-st-lou ... 00571.html St Louis perspective on Masterson trade

First, it's fair to say that the Justin Masterson trade was an abject disaster. On the disabled list when the Cards traded for him, Masterson never looked remotely able while pitching with "STL" on his cap. His strikeout rate sagged further, his walk rate decreased a bit but was still unacceptably high, and he often looked like he had no idea where the ball was going upon hurling it homeward. The end result over 30 2/3 innings was a 7.04 ERA (196 ERA-) and 5.84 FIP (162 FIP-). The Cleveland front office is probably still laughing over how they fleeced the Cardinals for a perfectly useful outfield prospect.

For his part, Mozeliak discussed the Masterson deal, however briefly, with MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch:

Clearly, (Justin) Masterson, we had higher hopes for. It just didn't end up working for him, and that's too bad. But that's the part about doing deals. Sometimes you're going to get it right and sometimes you're not. I always feel like if you do nothing, you're going to get in trouble. And sometimes if you do something that doesn't work, you're going to get in trouble. The best thing to do is remain disciplined in the process, which we felt we were doing, and how we end up looking back on these deals, time will ultimately be the judge of that. But we feel like we put our best foot forward in the decision-making.
So Mozeliak appears to feel confident in the Cardinals' process that concluded with the decision to trade James Ramsey for the injured and struggling veteran right-hander, which I found interesting. Oh to have been a fly in the wall during those deliberations. But, alas, all we can do is speculate at the feedback Mozeliak received from the coaching staff and scouts regarding the organization's ability to reclaim Masterson's former effectiveness. It seems as if the organization may have overestimated where Masterson was and how helpful they might be to him.

Cleveland Indians 2014 MLB season came up short, but don't expect major changes

Dennis Manoloff, The Plain Dealer By Dennis Manoloff, The Plain Dealer

on September 29, 2014 at 6:00 AM, updated September 29, 2014 at 6:11 AM




CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians finished with a winning record for the second straight season. The previous time it happened for the franchise was 2000-2001.

The Indians played hard from start to finish under manager Terry Francona. Two players, right-hander Corey Kluber and left fielder Michael Brantley, authored monster seasons. Other highlights included 11 walkoff wins.

However, the Indians did not qualify for the playoffs, having been eliminated after Game 160. It means that, in a bottom-line business, the season was a disappointment -- especially because they qualified as a wildcard entry in 2013 after going 92-70. The Indians fell well short of that victory total this season with an 85-77 final mark.

It is understandable, after watching a season such as this, to assert that the Indians need a talent upgrade in several areas if they want to be a force next year. A power bat, preferably right-handed, immediately comes to mind. How about another? And a proven starter can't hurt.

What is understandable, though, is not necessarily realistic. The majority of MLB teams don't make the playoffs each year, but it is impossible for all of them to reconfigure their rosters enough to suffice. Reasons range from players under contract to players available in areas of need to budgets.

Tribe fans clamoring for additions won't want to hear this ... but their team, based on the contract/control status of the players on the roster, probably won't make significant moves in the offseason. This is, of course, barring a major trade.

The Tribe bosses will submit that, if certain players perform to capabilities and are healthy, the team will improve significantly. Perhaps. But until it happens, Tribe fans reserve the right to be skeptical because they have heard such a refrain plenty of times.

Last winter, the Indians' major additions were free-agent signees John Axford as closer and David Murphy as right fielder. It didn't seem like nearly enough -- and that was before Axford imploded. Then, at the July 31 and Aug. 31 trade deadlines, virtually nothing was done to improve the roster. The Indians rolled with what they had, and they came up just short.

Below is a projection of the major components of the 2015 roster, with a realistic expectation for each (All contract statuses and figures are from Cot's Baseball Contract's via Baseball Prospectus):

Catcher: Yan Gomes

Skinny: Signed through 2019. Highly productive in first full season at a premium position. Provided desperately needed right-handed power (21 homers) and did a good job, on balance, of calling games. Hurried throws led to errors, but mechanics improved as season unfolded.

Bottom line: Gomes is a core piece with a high ceiling.

First base: Carlos Santana

Skinny: Signed through 2016, with club option for 2017. Began season at third base but struggled. Moved to first and developed into solid defender. Endured protracted slump to begin season but recovered enough to lead Indians in homers (27) and resume being one of their best offensive players. Led majors in walks; boosted on-base percentage compensated for low batting average.

Bottom line: Santana is a core piece. He is a proven run producer but can be maddeningly inconsistent. If he ever learns to shorten his swing with two strikes -- read: his hero, Victor Martinez -- and settle for singles, who knows how much better he can be?

Second base: Jason Kipnis

Skinny: Signed through 2019, with club option for 2020. Disappointment offensively and defensively. Followed All-Star season in 2013 (5.8 WAR) with one of sub-.250 average and minimal power (0.8 WAR). Missed most of May because of an oblique injury. Rarely seemed comfortable in box and had range issues in the field.

Bottom line: Kipnis, who is supposed to be a core piece, has become the ultimate Tribe wildcard for 2015: Which way will he go? The bosses, who committed big money to Kipnis in April, can only hope that he comes to camp fully healthy and light on his feet and returns to a reasonable facsimile of the 2013 player. Kipnis, intense and with a lot of pride, should be highly motivated to prove doubters wrong. Some have suggested Kipnis move to the outfield, but that almost certainly won't happen in part because of players already under contract. If Kipnis is healthy and fixes what ails him in the box, he can be an asset at second and doesn't need to slide to the outfield.

Third base: Lonnie Chisenhall

Skinny: Signed through 2014. Made significant strides in his first full season. Brutal defensively early but got better. Endured several slumps, but, on balance, was solid offensively.

Bottom line: Chisenhall is under Indians' control and not going anywhere. It seems as though Chisenhall has been around forever, but he will turn 26 on Oct. 4. Organization has invested too much time in him to risk another club reaping the full rewards, especially after he showed promise in 2014. Height of his ceiling depends on whom you ask, but he still should be Tribe's starting third baseman on Opening Day 2015.

Shortstop: Jose Ramirez*

Skinny: Signed through 2014. *Bridge until highly touted Francisco Lindor is ready; Lindor finished 2014 at Class AAA Columbus. Ramirez performed admirably in his stint of 68 games with Cleveland, but he didn't dazzle. Some have suggested a Lindor-Ramirez duo up the middle with Kipnis in the outfield, but it is difficult to envision the Indians gambling on Lindor-Ramirez offensively if they are serious about contending.

Bottom line: Ramirez is under Indians' control. If a trade gets made, he might be part of the package, but for now, he appears to be a functional stopgap at short and/or backup utility man. If Ramirez is not playing short, Lindor will be.

Left field: Michael Brantley

Skinny: Signed through 2017, with club option for 2018. Indians' most consistent and best hitter/player. Made first All-Star Team in 2014. Smooth swing mechanics produced fantastic all-around season worthy of MVP consideration. Entered final weekend as only MLB player with .300+ average, 40+ doubles, 20+ homers, 90+ RBI, 90+ runs and 20+ steals. His final numbers were .327 average, 45 doubles, 20 homers, 97 RBI, 94 runs and 23 steals.

Bottom line: Brantley is a core piece. He can't be expected to match this season's numbers every year, but he can be expected to hit .300 with extra-base pop and play good defense -- for a long time.

Center field: Michael Bourn

Skinny: Signed through 2016, with club option for 2017. Disappointment offensively (low on-base percentage, lack of steals, runs) and unable to stay healthy because of continued left-hamstring trouble. Earned $13.5 million.

Bottom line: Bourn's contract makes him virtually untradable, so the bosses have no choice but to cross fingers and hope he is healthy and returns to something close to the free agent they signed in 2013. The odds are long. Bourn is a nice man who loves to compete, but his hamstring probably will hinder him to varying degrees the remainder of his career.

Right field: David Murphy

Skinny: Signed through 2015, with a club option for 2016. Decent offensively this season, especially for an estimated $5.5 million. One of Indians' best clutch hitters. Suffered oblique injury late in season.

Bottom line: Murphy is not a cornerstone by any means, but he is a solid pro guaranteed to make $6 million in 2015. It is difficult to envision a trading partner even if the Indians wanted to move Murphy, so he will be back with Cleveland and will play right field at least two-thirds of the time if healthy.

Designated hitter: Nick Swisher

Skinny: Signed through 2016, with club option for 2017. Enormous disappointment in his second year in Cleveland. Bad offensively and defensively (at first base, before Santana took over) at a price tag of $15 million -- the club's highest-paid player. Shut down in mid-August because of injuries to both knees, each of which required surgery.

Bottom line: When Indians fans talk about adding a legit cleanup hitter, the top name on the wish list is potential free agent Victor Martinez. V-Mart is a former Indian who has been mashing for Detroit. Alas, it's not going to happen. Even if V-Mart wanted to come back, the Indians have no room for him unless they trade Santana or Swisher; the latter definitely won't happen because there are no suitors. As with Bourn, the bosses have no choice but to cross fingers and hope that Swisher's professional pride kicks in, he comes to camp in the best shape of his life, and he shows he's not done. The odds are long.

Rotation (components and order subject to change): Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, T.J. House.

Skinny: Kluber emerged as a Cy Young candidate and projects to be an ace for years. Kluber's representatives and the Indians probably will talk contract extension over the winter; Kluber made $514,000 this season. ... Carrasco was among MLB's best starters in the final two months of the season. He opened the year in the rotation but was sent to the bullpen after four starts. He excelled as a reliever, then took his next opportunity as a starter and ran with it. Maybe, just maybe, he finally has been able to harness his considerable talent. ... Bauer made progress in a 26-start season with Cleveland, but he was far from lights-out (5-8, 4.18 ERA). He will be in the 2015 rotation somewhere, although it might not be as a No. 3. ... Salazar began the season in the rotation, was demoted to the minors and came back a better pitcher. He still has a long way to go, though. He was 6-8 with a 4.25 ERA in 20 starts. ... House proved to be a pleasant surprise as a rookie. His value is enhanced by being left-handed in an otherwise all-righty rotation. ... Zach McAllister, who began the season as a starter, ended it in the bullpen. He probably will begin 2015 as a reliever and provide depth if a starter gets injured or is ineffective.

Bottom line: The rotation beyond Kluber is long on youth and potential but short on guarantees. None of the starters not named Kluber makes the opposition nervous -- at least not yet. If the Indians add a significant piece over the winter, it might just be in the rotation, simply because it is easier to do so: All of the five starters, plus McAllister, are under club control but none is signed to a multi-year contract.

Bullpen: Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Scott Atchison, Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle Crockett, McAllister.

Skinny: Closer Allen and Shaw, Atchison and Rzepczynski each made 70-plus appearances this season. Assuming their arms are still attached, they will be counted on again in 2015. McAllister provides another power arm near the back end. Crockett emerged as a lefty to supplement Rzepczynski. Among the wildcards: C.C. Lee and Nick Hagadone.

Bottom line: Bullpen effectiveness varies from year to year, in large part because of wear and tear; the Tribe can't bank on its big four to be this good again. But the bullpen figures to remain a strength as long as Francona manages.

Someone said this earlier, but it's amazing that other teams even bother to trade their minor leaguers to the Tribe. They have an amazing record at acquiring minor league talent from other organizations.

Start with Kluber, Santana, and Brantley.

Hoping James Ramsey is next.

Tribe fans clamoring for additions won't want to hear this ... but their team, based on the contract/control status of the players on the roster, probably won't make significant moves in the offseason. This is, of course, barring a major trade.

The indians won't do anything big, unless they do something big.

These writers are lame.

On a roll !

END OF SEASON POST-MORTEM: CLEVELAND INDIANS

Posted by Joseph Coblitz on Sep 27, 2014 12:00

Yardbarker........................


What Went Wrong:

It is easier to say what went right with the Indians than what went wrong, as they had problems with every facet of the team from one time or another. Problems with the offense, bullpen depth and defense were season-long issues. The most problematic of these was the defense, which allowed 67.3 more runs than the average defense according to Fangraphs UZR. Making this even more extreme, the Indians actually improved their defense late in the season by using Jose Ramirez (+7.2 UZR in 480.2 innings) at shortstop instead of Asdrubal Cabrera (-6.9 in 820.2 innings) and Carlos Santana (-0.7 in 842) at first instead of Nick Swisher (-5.9 in 459). What seemed like a poor offense for the Tribe actually scored 662 runs and the pitching staff allowed 580 earned runs (649 total). With even an average defense for the entire season and those runs subtracted, it would have changed a .506 Pythagorean winning percent (82 expected wins) to a .562 (91 expected wins), which would have not only been enough to win the Wild Card, but the division outright.

Cleveland Indians must find way to build on pitching staff with at least average offense -- Terry Pluto

on September 30, 2014 at 6:14 PM, updated September 30, 2014 at 6:35 PM


CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians finished the season ranked No. 7 in runs scored.

That's No. 7 in the American League, and that's hard to believe. Very hard to believe.

After the All-Star Game, the Tribe was No. 11 in runs scored. Now, that passed the eye test. Just as their No. 2 ranking in pitching after the All-Star break should match up with what most of us watched in 2014.

In the second half of the season, the Tribe could really pitch ... and hitting was harder than spelling the last name of Marc Rzepcyznski -- or even pronouncing it.

I confess that the excellent lefty reliever has been with the Tribe for nearly two years, and I still have to look up the spelling of his name each time before I write it. Just as it seemed the Indians were more likely to memorize every word in War and Peace than score more than three runs in a game.

I'm dwelling on the lack of offense partly because there is very good news -- pitching. They were 38-30, but think how much better it could have been with even average run production.

THE PITCHING

General Manager Chris Antonetti says the Indians have the youngest pitching staff in the American League. I'll take his word for it, because the only pitcher over 30 is 38-year-old Scott Atchison.

Even better news is that none of the starters -- Corey Kluber, T.J. House, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer -- are even close to free agency.

Carrasco can't become a free agent until after 2017. For Kluber, it's after 2018. For House, Bauer and Salazar -- it's after 2019.

So the pitching staff is set. Yes, pitchers get hurt. Or they lose it (think Justin Masterson). That's why manager Terry Francona has said he's open to adding more pitching, either a starter or in the bullpen.

But the talent in the rotation is real. They also have Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin as possible rotation alternatives. McAllister needs to add another pitch to be an effective starter. At least the Tribe is receiving good work from him in the bullpen. The Indians believe Tomlin's surgically repaired elbow was fatigued in the last few months of the season.

Overall, the pitching appears to be in good shape -- their 3.56 ERA ranked No. 6 overall. In the second half, it was 3.12.

THE DEBATE

Hitting or pitching? If you are to pick an area upon which to build a team, always pick pitching.

What about the Tribe of the 1990s? The Indians actually led the American League in earned run average in 1995 and 1996. The lowest they ranked between 1995-2000 was No. 8. That was in 1997, when they were only 86-76. But they won a weak Central Division and sizzled in the playoffs, advancing to the World Series.

So I'd rather have the Tribe's pitching heading into 2014 than a bunch of hitters. Even in this age of declining offense, it's easier to find young bats than strong young arms who can perform.

Or at least, it should be.


THE HISTORY

In 2000, the average American League team batted .276 and scored 861 runs. In 2014, the average was .253 and 660. That's right, 15 years later -- the average team is scoring 201 fewer runs! And the batting average has dropped by 23 points!

It's amazing what drug testing will do.

Or how about this? The Angels led the A.L. in scoring with 773 runs -- that's 88 fewer than the 2000 average.

So let's not pretend the 1990s Indians are suddenly going to show up on the field. But there must be more runs in 2015.

I remember the moaning from some fans when the Indians passed up a chance to add Josh Willingham at midseason. He was the one "big bat" available. The Royals added Willingham, who hit .233 with two homers and six RBI in 73 at bats for Kansas City.

Not a lot of offense is available. But the Indians still must keep looking.

As the pitching was making a dramatic improvement in the second half of the season, the hitting was on a major decline -- and that was with Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana and Yan Gomes hitting well after the All-Star break.

They simply can't come back with the same basic lineup, hoping Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and Jason Kipnis are healthy and have bounce-back seasons.

THE DEFENSE

Most fans know their team led the league with 116 errors. They tied Boston by allowing 72 unearned runs -- most in the A.L.

By contrast, here's how many unearned runs were allowed by A.L. playoff teams: Detroit (57), Kansas City (59), Oakland (48), Los Angeles Angels (40) and Baltimore (36).

This doesn't count double plays that failed to be turned and balls that weren't caught because of a lack of range, etc. Even with Jose Ramirez (or Francisco Lindor) opening the season at short, it's hard to imagine the defense making a major improvement if Lonnie Chisenhall (at third) and Kipnis (at second) remain at their current positions. They can play one, but not both, in the infield -- unless the Indians are willing to tolerate more shaky defense.

I'd love to see the Tribe find a third baseman who is at least average defensively and can hit 20 homers. Not sure who that guy happens to be, but the Indians should look in the trade market. And it may cost them one of their young arms.

Only 11 players hit 30 homers in the majors last season. The Indians are not likely to acquire one of them. Also, the Dolans have to find a way to increase payroll, even with the attendance being the lowest in the majors.

In many ways, the 85-77 record this season was more remarkable than the 92-70 a year ago. Give Francona some players, he can deliver victories.

But remember, it's not just scoring more runs that matters -- it's also giving up fewer. Improving the defense will help in that area.

Both the Browns and Indians have problems with defense. How will the Cavs do?

Terry's right, we can't have an IF including both Kipnis and Chisenhall. I would seriously consider giving Urshela the opportunity to win the 3rd base job. Don't know if his 2014 AA/AAA power will carry over to the majors but he certainly hit with plenty of power this year to go along with what's always be rated an above average set of defensive skills.

I'd look for an OF on the market, we don't have a minor replacement with high ceiling above Zimmer who could move fast but has only 2 months in the minors so far.

I'd love to see the Tribe find a third baseman who is at least average defensively and can hit 20 homers. Not sure who that guy happens to be, but the Indians should look in the trade market. And it may cost them one of their young arms.

Mee Too! I'm thinking Adrian Beltre. He's 35 which I'm not happy about, but he is still very productive offensively. He may have slipped a tad on defense but he is still a 4 time gold glove winner.

Urshela will be playing in Venezuela this winter (winter ball folder). His performance there could go a long way in determining where he ends up next year and how soon he gets there.

I assume his performance in AAA this year is more significant, but he can add or to or subtract from his prospect status over the winter

Terry's right, we can't have an IF including both Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'd look for an OF on the market, we don't have a minor replacement with high ceiling above Zimmer who could move fast but has only 2 months in the minors so far.

Agree with the disastrous defensive infield problem. And Santana is no gold glover at 1B either which makes it all the worse.

But, to me, the solution is to move Kipnis to the outfield, where he belonged.

So, civ, I actually think a problem is too MANY outfielders. Brantley and Bourn are going nowhere. But after that there's Murphy, Swisher (yeah, I know) already taking the spot I would send Kipnis to. You might even add Ramsey to the outfield glut, it would not surprise me if he really impresses next spring.

It really is a roster mess both offensively and defensively IMO.

I guess that's the nature of being a GM. You finally get your pitching nailed down, but holes appear elsewhere. Sorta like my life, I'm the little dutch boy plugging holes, having new ones pop open, and running out of fingers.

joez - I really feel bad for you sometimes, the way you torture yourself.

OK, we have a 3B issue and you suggest Beltre. Sure, only one of the top 3 third baseman in the game - who it would take a king's ransom to get. Then, you're upset when it doesn't happen.

It's just a formula for disappointment.

It's sorta like saying "we need a starting pitcher". Hey, let's go out and get Kershaw!

To me, the way to upgrade the team is not to go out and get a stud who you pay a huge price for, it's to find an undervalued quality player who you can plug in. The way the Indians went out and got Yan Gomes.

You also look at other teams who have a surplus at a position. The way the Tribe got Ramsey from the Cardinals. They had too many quality outfielders.

That's how you efficiently upgrade your team.

It also makes for better forum fodder.