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Tribe Happenings: A wild wildcard finish is upon us
Asdrubal Cabrera (Photo: AP)
By Tony Lastoria
September 22, 2013
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Some news, notes, and thoughts from my Indians notebook…
Wildcard scenarios
With just a week left in the season and still six teams in the wildcard mix, things are setting up to be quite crazy this week.
At the moment the Indians sit at 85-70 and own a half game lead on the Rangers for the second wildcard spot. The Rays lead the way with an 85-69 record, the Rangers are a half game out (84-70), the Yankees are 3.0 games out (82-73), the Orioles are 3.5 games out (81-73) and the Royals are 3.5 games out (81-73).
Here are the remaining schedules for the six wildcard contenders:
Indians (7): ASTROS (1), WHITE SOX (2), at Twins (4)
Rays (8): ORIOLES (2), at Yankees (3), at Blue Jays (3)
Rangers (8): at Royals (1), ASTROS (3), ANGELS (4)
Royals (8): RANGERS (1), at Mariners (3), at White Sox (4)
Orioles (8): at Rays (2), BLUE JAYS (3), RED SOX (3)
Yankees (7): GIANTS (1), RAYS (3), at Astros (3)
The Rays, Indians and Rangers appear to bet setting themselves apart from the pack this weekend, and if all three win on Sunday the race will probably be down to them the final seven days. At this point, all the Indians know is as long as they continue to win and don’t lose, they at least guarantee themselves a tie for one of the wildcard spots with the Rays and/or Rangers.
No matter what though, in any scenario where there is a tie for a wildcard spot the tie breaker will occur on the field as Major League Baseball does not use any crazy formulas based on head-to-head, division record, strength of schedule or and BCS computers to settle who makes it. Any teams tied for the wildcard will play each other in a one-game playoff to earn the final wildcard spot for the right to play in the one-game wildcard playoff.
Since it looks possible that two teams could tie for the final wildcard spot or three teams could tie for both wildcard spots, here is a quick rundown of how the tiebreakers work in those scenarios:
Two-way ties
If for example the Rays finish with the top wildcard record and the Indians and Rangers tie for the second wildcard, then the Indians and Rangers would play in a one-game playoff on Monday September 30th in Cleveland (homefield is determined by head-to-head and Indians won the season series over the Rangers 5-1). The winner would then go on to Tampa to play in a one-game wildcard playoff on Tuesday October 1st.
The only exception to the need for a mandatory “play-in” game would be if two teams finish with the best wildcard records and both are tied. In this case, a tie is broken simply by head-to-head or other secondary tiebreaker measures. So, for example, if the Indians and Rays finish with identical 90-72 records and everyone else finishes 89-73 or worse, then the Rays and Indians are the two wildcard teams and homefield is determined by head-to-head (in this scenario, the Rays would host since they won the season series with the Indians 4-2).
Three-way ties
If three teams tie for the final wildcard spot, then the three teams will be designated as "A", "B" and "C" under a two-game elimination format. In Game 1, A would host B. The following day, in Game 2, the winner of Game 1 would host C. The winner of Game 2 advances to the postseason.
The designations for teams A, B and C is quite convoluted, but in a nutshell if one team has a better record against both of the other teams, and another team has a winning record against the final team, the first team shall get the first pick of their team designation (likely C), the second team gets the second pick (likely A), and the last team is assigned the remaining designation (likely B).
In a situation where there is a three way tie between three teams for both wildcard spots, a tiebreaker series eliminating one of the three teams would follow. Based on a group head to head record, Teams A, B and C would be created. Team B would travel to team A. The winner wins wild card one. The loser would go to team C. The winner of that game wins wild card two. After those two games, wild card teams one and two would play each other in the wild card round with the homefield going to the team with the better regular season head-to-head record.
There is also a chance that there could be a four-way tie for the final wildcard spot. If this happens then the four teams draw spots as teams A, B, C, and D. On the first day team B plays at team A and team D plays at team C. The next day the winners of these games play each other at the ballpark of either team A or B (depending on who won the game) and the winner earns the wildcard berth.
It is still a fuzzy playoff picture, but again, for the Indians the math is simply as they just need to keep beating the teams they should beat and maybe get some help along the way with the Rays and/or Rangers losing a few games.
Gomes has become a core player
The Indians made one of their best trades in quite some time last November when they traded Esmil Rogers to the Blue Jays in exchange for Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes.
While at the time of the trade it was considered minor and more to add to the depth of the roster, Aviles carried most of the attention because of his major league experience and his possible consideration as a replacement at shortstop for Cabrera. But as this season has worn on Gomes has proven to be the big acquisition and really looks to be a core player for the Indians for the foreseeable future.
Gomes, 26, is enjoying his first extended experience in the big leagues as in 81 games he is hitting .297 with 10 homers, 34 RBI and .844 OPS. In addition to the productive showing with the bat he has also shown off his defensive skills as he has just three errors and three passed balls all season. He has also shut down the running games of opposing teams as he has thrown out 19 of 46 runners (41.3%).
The Indians initially picked up Gomes in the deal with the Blue Jays because they were attracted to the production and versatility he could provide from the right side of the plate. In his four year minor league career he was a .287 hitter with a healthy .828 OPS, and was considered very athletic with soft hands and a good arm behind the plate. They felt he was undervalued by the Blue Jays and that he had not yet reached his full potential as a catcher, and at the time he provided the Indians with a third catching option for 2013 and possibly a long term backup catching option that they did not have in the system at the time.
Gomes came right in and impressed in spring training. He even skipped the World Baseball Classic and chose not to play for his home country Brazil – the team he had just helped earn a berth a few months earlier – so that he could concentrate on making the opening day roster or at least make a sizable impression on the front office and coaching staff in the spring.
Gomes did that as he showcased his lightning quick catch and throw skills throughout spring training. When he got a chance to play he flat out hit as in 15 games he raked to the tune of a .407 batting average with a homer, 7 RBI and 1.170 OPS in 27 at bats.
Gomes lost out on an opening day roster spot because Marson was the incumbent backup catcher and set to make $1 million this season, but he didn’t last in the minors long as he was called up a week into the season when Marson came down with a concussion and shoulder injury. Known as the first Brazilian player to make it to the major leagues, Gomes has since answered the call and remained with the team ever since.
What Gomes has done since then is stabilize himself as a core member of the roster for the next several years. Assuming he is done with the minors, the Indians control him for five more seasons beyond this season and he is likely to get a more prominent role with the team next year.
Anyone paying attention can see how his playing time has increased significantly in the second half of this season because of how much manager Terry Francona not only trusts his defense and the way he handles a pitching staff, but how potent his bat can be.
It is important to note that Carlos Santana is still viewed as the everyday catcher, but it is obvious to see that the torch is starting to be passed to Gomes and it is possible that at some point next season he will take over the position and be considered the Indians’ regular at the position.
The Indians have no plans to move Santana out from behind the plate, but Gomes’ breakout as a more reliable defensive catcher and his steady offense should at least allow the Indians to explore playing Santana a lot more next season at designated hitter and first base and have close to a 50-50 split in playing time at catcher between Santana and Gomes.
One caveat in all of this is no one should go completely all-in on Gomes as the catcher just yet. It is just his first full season, and Francona has done a nice job of putting him in a position to have success by picking his spots when he plays him. No one knows how he will respond to the pressure of handing the everyday catching duties five to six games a week. Especially when so many players have struggled in their sophomore season.
With that in mind, there is no reason at the moment for the Indians to make a permanent position change for Santana or even consider trading him. Santana’s bat is too valuable and for a team starving for offense it would make little sense to trade away one of the club’s best bat – if not their best offensive contributor.
Considering the rigors of catching and how Gomes is still somewhat of an unknown going into next year, it would be to the Indians benefit to carry two starting quality catchers on the roster. With Santana still at catcher the Indians can ease Gomes into everyday duties. If he proves to be the real deal over the course of next season, then the Indians can hand the keys to the position to him as the team’s number one backstop. If he struggles, then they still have Santana at the position to take over and larger percentage of the playing time.
Right now, the Indians need bats and to have one emerge at the catching position and be a potential Gold Glove caliber defender to boot helps limit their needs going forward. If Gomes maintains his production and performance both offensively and defensively he could even be a guy who gets All Star someday.
The emergence of Gomes has had one of the biggest impacts on the team this season. The Indians have had several players have big breakout or comeback seasons, which is why they have had so much more success this season in the win-loss column.
But Gomes is the one that is the most important because he not only has had such a big effect on this season, but he has a big impact on the Indians long term outlook going forward.
Masterson could pitch this week
Right-hander Justin Masterson appears to be very close to a return to the mound for the Indians, which could be a huge boost to the pitching for the final week and possibly in the playoffs.
Masterson, 28, went down with a strained left oblique in his start against the Orioles on September 2nd and rested for a few weeks before starting a return to throw program recently. On Friday he threw a 33 pitch pen session and it reportedly went great, and all that stands between him returning is a sim-game which will happen on Monday or Tuesday. If he gets the all clear after that session, then he could make a start sometime over the final weekend of the season against the Twins.
With the off day on Monday the Indians adjusted their rotation slightly by sliding up Ubaldo Jimenez to Tuesday so he can pitch on normal rest and pitch two more times if needed before the end of the season. Danny Salazar has been pushed to Wednesday and it is this spot in the rotation that the Indians may be aligning Masterson’s return.
Masterson would likely be limited in his first start back, so the Indians will want to ease him back into things and definitely get him a start before any possible playoff run. Wednesday may be a little early to have Masterson come back and pitch in a piggyback situation, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Masterson and McAllister share their next start (Thursday) which would then keep Masterson in line for Game 1 of the American League Division Series provided the Indians make the playoffs and beat their wildcard opponent.
Postseason roster decisions
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but it is time to start thinking a little bit how the Indians postseason roster will be made up. The wildcard roster will obviously be much different since it is one game, but thinking ahead to a possible playoff series, there are some interesting decisions that loom. Here are some quick thoughts:
What is the four man rotation? Every team pretty much goes with a four man rotation in the playoffs now, and the Indians very likely would be no different. Right now the rotation would probably be Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, and Scott Kazmir. Zach McAllister or Josh Tomlin would probably make the roster as a spot starter or long man option. As for Danny Salazar, I am not sure he makes the postseason roster since the Indians may be gun shy about him pitching in a new bullpen role he is unprepared for physically.
Drew Stubbs or Matt Carson? As tempting as it would be to add the hot hitting Carson, he is still a journeyman player and was in the minors all season for a reason. Stubbs has been with the team all year, and even though he has really struggled down the stretch with the bat, he is still has more power and is a superior runner and defender. He has to be on the roster even if he is just a late inning pinch runner or defensive replacement.
What about the final bench spot, does it go to Jason Giambi, Jason Kubel or Jose Ramirez? Ramirez adds a great dynamic to the roster with his speed and good contact ability at the plate, and Kubel has some left-handed pop. But, Giambi has been with the team all year, is the team’s leader, and Francona trusts him. Plus he has tons of postseason experience, so he should be on the roster.
If the Indians make the playoffs I will delve much deeper into the roster decisions next week, so in the meantime this is but an appetizer to think about some of the roster possibilities for the postseason.
Parting shots
Second baseman Jason Kipnis is once again having another hot and cold first and second half this season. Last year he hit .277 with 11 HR, 49 RBI and .764 before the All-Star break and then hit .233 with 3 HR, 27 RBI and .650 OPS after it. This year he hit .301 with 13 HR, 57 RBI and .897 OPS before the All Star break and has hit .235 with 4 HR, 23 RBI and .655 OPS after it. … The Indians awful attendance numbers have been beaten to death, but here is another quick attendance number which may surprise you. Last year on Wednesday September 19th in a home game against the Twins the Indians (61-88) drew 13,519 fans. This year, on Thursday September 19th in a home game against the Astros the Indians (82-70) drew 12,607 fans.