Cleveland Sports Forum

Heck, I'll play.

Two Words: Better Defense.

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2 ... al-cabrera

I guess they don't think too highly of our defense up the middle !?!?! That's what wins championships.

Tribe fans,
Help me write my new book (with Tom Hamilton) about the Cleveland Indians of the 1990s . . .
A note from Terry Pluto
Share your stories about the Indians

Dear readers,

I'm writing a new book with Indians radio announcer Tom Hamilton, and we'd like to include some favorite memories from Tribe fans from 1990 to 2001, focusing on the beginning of the Jacobs Field era.

If you have a story to share, please send it to me using the form below.

Try to keep it short. No profanity.

If your story is selected for the book, I'll send a free autographed copy of the book when it is published.

Here are some possible topics . . .

Meeting players
Favorite games or moments
My first visit to Jacobs Field
The old Stadium and the new
Listening to the Tribe on the radio
Sharing the Tribe with family members

Some of the players we'll be writing about in detail . . .
Albert Belle
Carlos Baerga
Chad Ojea
Charles Nagy
Dennis Martinez
Eddie Murray
Jaret Wright
Jim Thome
John Hart
Jose Mesa
Kenny Lofton
Manny Ramirez
Mike Hargrove
Omar Vizquel
Orel Hersheiser
Paul Sorrento
Sandy Alomar


Terry Pluto

http://www.grayco.com/terrypluto/Indians.html

This is an article from 10 days ago, so the standings have changed, but it is a good summary of the wild card chase:

Labor Day is the unofficial stretch call for the baseball season, and this year in the American League, the race for the wild card seems likely to go down to the wire. With less than a month to go, seven teams (aside from the Red Sox and Tigers, who have established substantial division leads) are within five games of a wild card slot, so a photo finish could be in the offing.

Surveying the Field of A.L. Wild Card Contenders

Source: baseball-reference.com

The Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers are currently tied in the A.L. West, but, with both teams enjoying a 5 ½ game lead over the closest pursuer for the second wild card slot, a play-in game is all but a guaranteed consolation. Less than a week ago, the same seemed true about the Rays, but a costly losing streak has almost put the A.L. East out of reach and removed the wild card safety net in the process. As a result of Tampa's stumble, the Orioles, Yankees, Indians and Royals have been able to revive their playoff push. About 25 games remain, so there's plenty of time for these contenders to make a move. However, just as important as how many games remain for each team is the quality of the opponents left on their respective schedules.

A.L. Wild Card Contenders Strength of Schedule

Note: Opponent records are weighted averages based on W-L multiplied by games against each opponent.
Source: baseball-reference.com

If the Rays are looking for help to snap out of their funk, it won't come from the schedule. Not only does Tampa play 15 of its final 26 on the road, where the team's record is 31-35, but it also has one of the most difficult schedules. The Rays' remaining opponents have a weighted winning percentage of .511, higher than all but the Orioles. However, when using only the last 30 games as a barometer, Tampa's schedule yields an even more daunting opposing win rate of .527.

Which team is best positioned to take advantage should the Rays stumble over the many hurdles in their schedule? The Indians, whose September slate includes 14 games against the White Sox, Astros and Twins, boast the easiest remaining schedule based on overall and home/road winning percentages. Some of that edge is mitigated, however, when considering the recent play of the final month's opponents. On that basis, the Yankees hold the trump card. The Bronx Bombers' remaining opponents have a success rate of only .469 in their previous 30-games, which, compared to the Yankees 17-13 record over that span, could be a winning combination. Then again, the Yankees' favorable schedule is predicated on the recent struggles of the Orioles and Rays. If those two teams rebound for the stretch, the A.L. East contenders could wind up running each other into the ground, clearing a path for the Indians or Royals to take the lead.

Unfortunately for Kansas City, the schedule won't be an ally. Not only do the Royals have the largest deficit to overcome, but, in terms of overall, home/road, and previous 30-game records, their remaining slate of games ranks as one of the most difficult. Also, the Royals' easiest stretch doesn't come until the end of the season and requires a trip to and from Seattle without a day off in-between. So, if a Central team is going to stalk the A.L. East contingent, Kansas City is probably a long shot.

Remaining Opponents of A.L. Wild Card Contenders
Note: Includes opposition of seven wild card contenders identified above, including the teams themselves.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Although the Red Sox are almost assured of winning the East, its performance in September could still have significant post season implications. Sixteen of Boston's final 23 games are against wild card contenders, so the Red Sox pursuit of home field advantage throughout October could leave many of their opponents on the outside looking in. Meanwhile, teams like the White Sox, Twins and Angels, who also play more than half their games against contenders, could have the opposite impact, although each of those teams has played better in the last month.

Can the Rays hold onto their dwindling lead? Will the Indians be able to take advantage of an easy schedule and sneak in under the wire? Or, is the Yankees' pedigree about to take over? With several contenders still jockeying for position, the A.L. playoff picture isn't likely to come into focus anytime soon.

Michael Bourn on Cleveland attendance "Come on out and watch us play. That’s all we want."

By Ryan  @LetsGoTribe on Sep 11 2013, 7:30p 225

David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

After the game today, Michael Bourn was asked about the home crowds. And I think his entire response did a good job in criticizing without going all Chris Perez on the fanbase:

"Y’all tell me," Bourn said. "You’re asking the question. There’s a reason you’re asking the question. We would like to be supported a little bit more, if we could. We’re two games out. In the hunt for the second wild card. It’s been a long time since there’s been a team in the wild card here.

[snip]

"We try to give them a good show every time they come out. Last few games have been kind of disappointing to us. We’re going to still play … but you want that atmosphere to be rocking like they had in the 90s. I know they were the team at the time. But we’re trying to work to be a good team. So we need that support.

[snip]

"Come on out and watch us play. That’s all we want. That’s all we’re asking for."
Click on the above link to read the whole thing first.

OK?

The attendance issue has been an issue since 2002-2003. And because it's been an issue for that long, those on either side of the argument have entrenched themselves to the point where nobody's listening to each other. I think it's very possible that both these arguments are correct:

The Cleveland/Northeast Ohio economy is such that the typical family doesn't have the means to go to 3-4 ballgames a season any more. The business community, which is a big part of the season ticket base, is much weaker than it was 15 years ago. And because the Indians have either traded or let go many of their stars, fans have not spent their hard-earned money on going to Indians games. The Indians need to earn back the fans, and they can only do that by being in contention multiple years in a row.
Cleveland is not a baseball town. A magical confluence of events drove the Jacobs Field Era sellout streak: 1) The departure of the Browns in 1995, 2) A good economy, 3) Lots and lots of star power, and 4) The bandwagon effect from 1-3. This year is proof of that, as although the Indians have been in contention all season long, there has been no surge in attendance.
Enter Michael Bourn, who is new to Cleveland. He's the ultimate outsider, someone that before this year had only played in two games in Cleveland, and that was in 2007. In his first year, he arrived in Cleveland as part of big (by Cleveland standards) spending spree, and after the end of April the Indians had been in contention the entire season. Reason would dictate that we should be seeing attendance go up as the season went on, but in some aspects the reverse has been true. In this homestand, in which the Indians played two contenders in the wild card race, only once did the crowd top the 20,000 mark.

One of my high school teachers had a sign on his desk that read "The floggings will continue until morale improves." It's a saying that I've never forgotten, both because of the inherent humor and the inherent truth in the phrase. You can't tell people how to enjoy themselves. The best you can do is to lower the barriers to accessing enjoyment. Hence the Indians lowering concession prices and doing the buses and all the other promotions designed to make trips to Progressive Field easier on the family budget. And there are still some things that the Indians can still do, such as lowering the prices for gameday ticket buyers. I also understand that being a fan means more than just going to games, as the TV and radio ratings indicate. People are tuning in to watch and listen Indians baseball, but they just aren't going to see it in person.

Changing an attitude is really hard to do, especially once it becomes as fixed like the animus towards the Indians has. That's going to take years to change, not just a couple months of contention. But it's frustrating as a fan to see the Indians, who did all the right things after last August, essentially get punished for not winning 100 games. This team deserves to be a big deal in this town, but they aren't.

In case you missed it:

Terry Pluto's Cleveland Indians Blog: The sudden rise of Danny Salazar required lots of patience

on August 06, 2013 at 6:05 PM, updated August 06, 2013 at 6:24 PM




When the Indians signed Danny Salazar, he was 16 years old. He stood about 5-foot-10, and weighed 160.

"I went to a tryout camp with about 40 guys at the Indians complex (in the Dominican Republic)," said Salazar. "They had me throw in the bullpen, then I pitched a little bit in a game."
Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Danny Salazar ready to pitch Wednesday.
AP Photo Tony Dejak

The Indians had no idea that Salazar would become the team's hottest pitching prospect.

"Back then, he threw 87-89 mph," said John Mirabelli, who was the team's director of scouting when Salazar signed. "He wasn't real big. For a 16-year-old to throw 87-89 mph is pretty good. He was a prospect, but really, he has been under the radar most of his career."

Not any more.

Wednesday, Salazar will take the Progressive Field mound against Detroit. He has made one big league start, six sizzling innings against Toronto -- seven strikeouts, two hits, one walk, one run allowed.

In his last Class AAA start, it was five hitless innings, no walks, eight strikeouts.

Salazar is lighting up the radar gun at 95-98 mph with a deceiving changeup and sharp breaking ball.

In his last five starts at Class AAA, it's 39 strikeouts and only three walks in 27 innings. His ERA in that span is 1.00.

Throws hard. Throws strikes.

Makes it look easy.

But it wasn't always that way.

He never even appeared on Baseball America's list of the Top 10 Tribe prospects until this season.

THE SIGNING

The year was 2007, and Salazar said he had an agent -- Cesar Geronimo Jr.

Yes, he's the son of Cesar Geronimo, who played 15 years in the Majors. In the Dominican Republic, agents often serve as coaches, trainers and mentors for young players.

Geronimo brought Salazar to the attention of Junior Betances, who was the Director of Dominican Operations for the Tribe.

The Indians signed Salazar for $200,000.

That sounds like a lot. But at that point, it was common for the top Dominican prospects to receive bonuses as high as $2 million. Bonuses of more than $1 million were not uncommon.

"Here's what we knew about Danny," said Ross Atkins, the Tribe's Minor League Director. "He is very athletic. When we did tests on agility and things like that, he has always scored high. And his work ethic is outstanding."

Salazar said his father is a bus driver, his mother is a house wife.

"They gave me discipline," he said.

Salazar embraced the idea of learning English and took his language classes seriously.

"We knew that he'd become the best player that he'd could be because of his athleticism and attitude," said Atkins.

THE WAITING

In 2007, Salazar pitched for the Tribe's rookie team in the Dominican.

In 2008, he was with the Tribe's rookie team in the Gulf Coast League.

In 2009, he finally made it to Lake County -- a "Low-A" team in the South Atlantic League. And at the age of 19, he was 5-7 with a 4.44 ERA for the Captains. He had 65 strikeouts in 107 innings.

"He was an unheralded guy," said Brad Grant, the Tribe's current scouting director. "You can look at him and try to project...but you just don't know when someone signs that young. I give our scouts and development people a ton of credit for Danny."

In fact, the Indians hired Geronimo as a scout. He is now scouting with the Cardinals.

"With young players like Danny, you wait," said Mirabelli. "And you wait some more."

His fastball was in the low 90s. He was maturing physically, but no one would call him a phenom.

And how about this?

In 2010, Salazar started seven games at Lake County -- and injured his arm.

Next came elbow reconstruction surgery.

So four years after signing with the Tribe, Salazar had never advanced higher than Class A Lake County -- and then was having Tommy John surgery.

THE RECOVERY

Salazar pitched only eight games in 2011 as the Tribe slowly brought him back from surgery.

"The impressive part was how he handled the surgery and the recovery," said Atkins. "He never got discouraged. He kept working hard. He's a humble kid and never has been in any trouble.":

Now 6-foot and 190 pounds, Salazar opened the 2012 season at Class A Carolina. The Indians limited him to 70 pitches and he never threw more than 4 1/3 innings in his first 15 starts.

But something was happening.

He was suddenly throwing 95 mph. He had developed a nasty changeup.

He ended the 2012 season at Class AA Akron, where he was 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA.

By the conclusion of 2012, the Tribe was thinking he could be in the Majors by the 2013 All-Star break.

"(Minor League coaches) David Miller and Ruben Niebla did a great job helping Danny work on his delivery after the surgery," said Tribe General Manager Chris Antonetti. "It really helped his velocity."

THE PHENOM

The Indians brought Salazar to big league camp for spring training in 2013.

"But we didn't let him pitch in any games," said Antonetti. "We didn't want him throwing too hard, too soon and hurting his arm. That has happened with some other young prospects over the years."

The Tribe sent him to Class AA Akron, then promoted him to Columbus.

His combination of a fierce fastball, the deft changeup, a sharp breaking ball and incredible control made him one of the top prospects in the minors. At the age of 23, he was ready for Cleveland.

" Back when Danny was signed, most teams signed 25-30 kids from the Dominican each year," said Mirabelli. "Most don't make it. There was something about Danny. He wasn't the 6-foot-6, 210-pounder that you like as a right-handed starter. But he was so relentless."

Mirabelli made another point: "He has a loose arm. His windup is effortless."

Those in the scouting and minor league development departments say how difficult it is to make a projection about young Latino players such as Salazar.

"Very few pitchers are as gifted athletes as Danny," said Atkins. "That's why we stayed positive about him."

Even this season, the Tribe has been careful with Salazar. His pitch counts usually are under 90.

This season, he has 129 strikeouts and only 24 walks in 93 minor league innings.

But now, the wait is over. And it appears patience really is about to pay off for the Tribe.

Terry Pluto
About the Indians' 2012 free-agent class ...

The Indians went shopping for outfielders last winter, and they signed Michael Bourn ($48 million for four years) and Nick Swisher ($56 million for four years). Did they make the right call, compared to what was available for outfielders?

1. Their first offer was to Shane Victorino, $42 million for four years. He signed a three-year, $39 million contract with Boston. Victorino is batting .292 (.802 OPS) with 14 HR, 57 RBI and 20 steals.

2. The Tribe never bid on Josh Hamilton, considered the best free agent outfielder. He signed a five-year, $125 million deal with Angels. Hamilton is hitting .245 (.736 OPS) with 20 HR and 67 RBI.

3. The Tribe expressed some interest in B.J. Upton. Rather than re-sign Bourn, Atlanta signed Upton to a five-year, $75 million deal. He is hitting .192 (.573 OPS) with 9 HR and 26 RBI.

4. San Francisco re-signed Angel Pagan to a four-year, $40 million deal. He is batting .283 (.729 OPS) with 3 HR, 25 RBI and 20 steals.

5. Torii Hunter signed a two-year, $26 million deal with the Tigers. The 38-year-old has been excellent, batting .298 (.798 OPS) with 16 HR and 72 RBI.

6. Bourn is batting .259 (.656 OPS) with 5 HR, 43 RBI and 22 steals.

7. Swisher is batting .242 (.744 OPS) with 18 HR and 55 RBI.

Bottom line: The Indians had absolutely no one in Class AAA or AA to play the outfield. Yes, they paid big bucks for Bourn and Swisher -- and both have performed under their typical seasons. But their decline has not been as massive as that of Hamilton or Upton. Hunter wanted to play for a contender. Victorino has performed as advertised for Boston. But none of these players have been franchise changers. The Indians also need Bourn and Swisher for the next few years because of their lack of outfielders in the minors.

About Danny Salazar ...

Yes, the Indians are being extra careful Danny Salazar, who struck out nine in 3 2/3 innings in his Friday start. The Indians want to keep him under 90 pitches, at least right now. They also are closely watching his total innings.

Salazar has a fastball in the 95-100 mph range. In eight starts with the Tribe, he is 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA. He has fanned 54 in 40 2/3 innings, walking only 14. He is a big-time prospect. Fangraphs.com has his average fastball at 96.1 mph.

I never remember the Tribe being this careful with a young pitcher. Here's what is behind their approach to Salazar:

1. Salazar had elbow reconstruction surgery in 2010. He pitched 32 1/3 innings that season.

2. Coming back from surgery, Salazar pitched only 14 2/3 innings in 2011.

3. In 2012, it was 87 1/3 innings.

4. Now 23, Salazar threw 93 innings in the minors, and 40 2/3 with the Tribe. That takes him to 133 2/3 innings.

5. Their goal for this season is about 150 innings for Salazar. They want to keep his pitch count under 90 per game.

6. In his second Major League start, the Indians allowed Salazar to throw 7 2/3 innings and 103 pitches against the Tigers. That last pitch was a monstrous homer to Miguel Cabrera, who had struck out in his first three at bats vs. Salazar. The 103 pitches were the most by Salazar this season.

7. In the next six starts, he has thrown between 71-80 pitches.

8. Next season, the Indians plan to aim for about 180 innings for Salazar, and most starts in the range of 90 pitches. Because he is so gifted and because he already has elbow surgery in his past -- they are not taking any chances. Another elbow injury could have dire consequences for his career.

Getting people to Indians games next year will be a critical test: Brent Larkin

Print By Brent Larkin, Northeast Ohio Media Group
on September 15, 2013 at 4:15 AM, updated September 15, 2013 at 4:16 AM

Major League Baseball’s Minnesota Twins are having a horrible season.

Heading into Monday’s meaningless game against the Los Angeles Angels, the Twins were 19 games out of first place. The team had lost 10 straight home games — the worst losing streak at home in 112 years, dating back to when the Twins were the Washington Senators.

Paid attendance in Minnesota that night was 21,886. In Cleveland, where the Indians played Kansas City in a game that featured two teams in a fierce fight for the American’s League final playoff spot, only 9,794 bothered to show up.

Throughout this 2013 season, longtime Plain Dealer Indians beat writer Paul Hoynes has documented the team’s inexplicably bad attendance. The Indians not only rank 28th of baseball’s 30 teams, but they have drawn 700,000 fewer fans than both Minnesota and the Milwaukee Brewers -- two teams in similar markets who have each lost far more games than they’ve won.

Talk of - and concern about - the Indians attendance has been largely confined to the sports pages and baseball-related chatter. But that concern has now spread to government buildings, corporate boardrooms and downtown businesses.

“We should be worried,” said one prominent government official. “And if it continues next year, we should be extremely worried.”

There are several reasons Indians attendance has fallen off a cliff. One involves a lack of confidence in the ownership. Fans, myself included, have complained for years about the Dolan family’s spending habits.

That changed this year. The Dolans wrote a bunch of gigantic checks and, for reasons not entirely related to those checks, the team got a lot better.

But the fans haven’t bought in.

And if this is the new normal, then another crisis over the Indians future here is inevitable.

It won’t happen soon. The team’s lease at Progressive Field doesn’t expire for a decade (though 1995 taught us that stadium leases can be worthless). And it will never happen while the Dolans own the team.

But if attendance remains in the tank, eventually it’ll happen.

Just as it happened here throughout the 1960s, when Seattle, New Orleans and Tampa all tried -- and at times came perilously close -- to steal the team. And just as it happened in 1990, when baseball’s commissioner came to town and all but guaranteed that if voters rejected the "sin tax" to build Gateway, the Indians eventually would move.

But any honest discussion of what’s happening to the Indians in 2013 requires an acknowledgement of the elephant in the room.

It’s the Cleveland market. The demographics are bad -- and getting worse.

A baseball team’s fan base is generally defined by its television market. Of the cities that are home to all three major sports - Major League Baseball, the NFL and NBA - the Cleveland media market is the smallest.

A quarter-century ago, Cleveland was the nation’s 12th-largest media market. Eight years ago, it was 16th. Today it’s 18th. Within a year or two, Orlando will push us down another notch.

Worse yet, the market is old, has a high poverty rate and a still-struggling economy.

Those factors make it tough for the fan base to support three professional teams. Baseball is the least expensive of the three sports, but it’s still pricey. And it’s obvious that Cleveland sports fans, who have the undeserved reputation for being savvy, aren’t about to abandon the always-pathetic Browns.

My guess is the Indians are still marginally profitable. But they might be a whole lot more profitable somewhere else.

Indians President Paul Dolan readily acknowledges a “lack of trust” in ownership may be related to the fans’ failure to respond.

But Dolan is also correct in this assessment of what’s happening here:

“There are lots of theories, but I believe the biggest is economics. The demographics of this community got hit real hard by the recession in 2001-2002. It’s never really recovered from that.

“We saw a substantial loss in jobs downtown. I think there are 100,000 fewer jobs downtown than when we bought the team. There’s been a loss of some of the Fortune 500 companies who were not only major sponsors, but they were suite buyers, and their employees were season ticket holders.

“It’s not really unique here. It’s happening elsewhere. But it’s probably most evident and stark here.”

Next year’s attendance will be the most important test of fan loyalty in the Gateway era.

“We have to do better, as a region, than 9,000 fans at an important game,” said Greater Cleveland Partnership CEO Joe Roman.

There have been times in the past few years when the most crowded bandwagon in town has been one imploring the Dolans to sell the team. Tens of thousands of us have been on it.

If you’re on it now, get off.

Of all the scenarios about the Indians' future, that one’s the most dangerous.

Brent Larkin was The Plain Dealer's editorial director from 1991 until his retirement in 2009.

American League wild card update: With sweep of White Sox, Indians continue push for playoff spot
By Glenn Moore, Northeast Ohio Media Group

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Cleveland Indians are racing for a playoff spot in the 2013 MLB postseason.
While the AL Central Division Championship is still mathematically possible, stamping a ticket to the postseason through one of the two wild card spots is more realistic.
The Tribe is contending with a handful of other teams and each morning we'll take a look at how those teams performed the night before. Playoff probability percentages are courtesy of MLB.com.

Cleveland Indians
Record: 81-68
Games behind in wild card: 0.5
Probability of reaching postseason: 37.7%
Probability of winning wild card spot: 36.7%
Yesterday's game: Nick Swisher homered from both sides of the plate for the 13th time during the Indians' 7-1 win against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday night.
Today's game: Cleveland (Scott Kazmir 8-8) at Kansas City (James Shields 11-9) -- 8:10 p.m.
Chasing...
The Tribe is chasing these two teams for one of the wild card spots:

Texas Rangers
Record: 81-67
Games ahead in wild card: +0.5
Probability of reaching postseason: 69.4%
Probability of winning wild card spot: 67.0%
Yesterday's game: Texas is 2-11 in September after beginning the month with a two-game division lead after last night's 5-1 loss to the Oakland A's. The Rangers lost their sixth in row, all at home — this was their first winless homestand of at least six games since moving to Texas in 1972.
Today's game: Texas (Matt Garza 3-4) at Tampa Bay (Alex Cobb 8-3) -- 7:10 p.m.

Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 81-67
Games ahead in wild card: +0.5
Probability of reaching postseason: 78.6%
Probability of winning wild card spot: 78.6%
Yesterday's game: Joel Peralta gave up a solo homer to Ryan Doumit in the eighth inning and a three-run drive to Josmil Pinto, and Tampa Bay stumbled again in the AL wild-card race with a loss to Minnesota.
Today's game: Texas (Matt Garza 3-4) at Tampa Bay (Alex Cobb 8-3) -- 7:10 p.m.
In Contention With...
Three other teams are trying to catch the two wild card leaders:

Baltimore Orioles
Record: 79-70
Games behind in wild card: 2.5
Probability of reaching postseason: 3.0%
Probability of winning wild card spot: 3.0%
Yesterday's game: Miguel Gonzalez pitched 5 1-3 innings before leaving with a strained right groin, Danny Valencia hit a two-run double and Baltimore beat Toronto, 3-1.
Today's game: Off.

New York Yankees
Record: 79-71
Games behind in wild card: 3.0
Probability of reaching postseason: 6.9%
Probability of winning wild card spot: 6.9%
Yesterday's game: Clay Buchholz pitched six innings of two-hit ball to improve to 11-0 and Daniel Nava had four hits to lead the Boston Red Sox to a 9-2 victory over New York on Sunday night and eliminate the Yankees from the AL East race.
Today's game: Off.

Kansas City Royals
Record: 78-71
Games behind in wild card: 3.5
Probability of reaching postseason: 4.6%
Probability of winning wild card spot: 4.6%
Yesterday's game: Alex Avila homered twice, including a tiebreaking solo shot in the eighth inning that lifted Detroit over Kansas City, 3-2.
Today's game: Cleveland (Scott Kazmir 8-8) at Kansas City (James Shields 11-9) -- 8:10 p.m.

What If...
Is a Tigers' collapse possible?

Detroit Tigers
Record: 86-63
Games ahead in AL Central: 5.0
Magic number to win AL Central: 9
Probability of reaching postseason: 99.8%
Probability of winning AL Central: 99.0%
Yesterday's game: Detroit's Max Scherzer struck out 12 in seven innings, but he was denied his 20th victory when Kansas City tied it off Drew Smyly in the eighth. Avila answered in the bottom half with a homer to right-center.
Today's game: Seattle (Joe Saunders 11-14) at Detroit (Rick Porcello 12-8) -- 7:08 p.m.

Free Agent Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez
By Steve Adams [September 16 at 2:34pm CST]
When the Indians sent four minor leaguers -- including a pair of first-round picks in Drew Pomeranz and Alex White -- to the Rockies to land Ubaldo Jimenez in July 2011, they likely pictured a controllable ace that could lead their rotation for two and a half seasons. That didn't prove to be the case off the bat, but over the past five months, Jimenez has looked every bit the part of the pitcher they were hoping to acquire. Jimenez-Ubaldo

Jimenez has a 2.72 ERA with 150 strikeouts against 65 walks in his past 145 2/3 innings dating back to April 29, and his 43.5 percent ground-ball rate is closer to his career level than last season's surprisingly low 38.4 percent mark. Jimenez's well-timed surge has likely changed him from a one-year deal type of pitcher to a multiyear asset that many teams will covet.

Strengths/Pros

Jimenez will turn just 30 years old in January, making him one of the youngest starters available on the free agent market. Only Phil Hughes is decisively younger, while Josh Johnson and Scott Kazmir are roughly the same age. Each comes with red flags, as Hughes has had a rough season and been bumped from New York's rotation, while Johnson has been injured and ineffective all season, and Kazmir comes with his a long injury history and threw only 63 big league pitches from 2011-12.

Jimenez also racks up strikeouts frequently and is doing so at the highest rate of his career in 2013 (9.1 K/9). He comes without a significant platoon split, as right-handers have a career .689 OPS against him versus .709 for left-handers. In 2013, he's actually had a slight reverse-platoon split. When Jimenez is on his game, it doesn't matter what side of the plate opposing hitters are standing on.

He's also very durable. Jimenez has started at least 31 games in each season from 2008-12 and is on pace to start at least 30 contests in 2013. Among upcoming free agents, only Bronson Arroyo and Tim Lincecum have made more starts since 2008. Arroyo is seven years older, while Lincecum hasn't recovered from his struggles and diminished velocity like Jimenez has. He's been on the disabled list just once in his career, when he missed just over two weeks with a cut on the cuticle of his right thumb -- a non-concerning injury to say the very least.

Weaknesses/Cons

Even when he's at his best, Jimenez's control has never been great. He's averaged 4.1 walks per nine innings in more than 1,200 career innings, and he's twice led the league in wild pitches. His ground-ball rate exceeded 50 percent with ease early in his career, but that number has dropped in recent seasons. His 43.5 percent mark in 2013 is a step up from 2012's mark of 38.4 percent, but he's still below the league average.

Jimenez's ground-ball rate isn't the only thing that's dropping; his once blistering 96.2 mph fastball has cooled off all the way down to an average of 91.7 mph this season. It's worth noting that like his ground-ball rate, his velocity has ticked back upward late in the season. Baseball Prospectus' Ben Lindbergh recently profiled (subscription required) some mechanical changes that Jimenez made to slow down his delivery, but even if those are to credit for his turnaround, one scout told Lindbergh that Jimenez's delivery is still flawed.

Personal

Jimenez enjoys spending time with his family and is very interested in music, as he demonstrated by showing off his drum skills in a visit to the MLB Fan Cave in 2012. However, those who know him describe him as driven and passionate about the game of baseball, noting that his main focus --especially when he isn't pitching up to his capability -- is delivering his best possible performance on the field.

Market

The Indians hold an $8MM option on Jimenez, but the 2011 trade triggered a clause that will allow him to void the option if he wishes. He's a virtual lock to do that, which will force the Indians to decide whether or not to extend Jimenez a qualifying offer. Cleveland, who typically operates on a tight budget, already has more than $48MM in 2014 salary commitments before arbitration raises to Justin Masterson, Chris Perez, Michael Brantley, Drew Stubbs and Vinnie Pestano. A qualifying offer of nearly $14MM would seem to be too great a risk, especially given potential in-house replacements like Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer.

The Indians may yet be interested in retaining him -- they did exercise a $5.75MM club option last October in hopes of just this type of turnaround -- but Jimenez will undoubtedly appeal to a number of teams. As a pitcher who has endured recent struggles, he may prefer to seek maximum security in terms of years. Teams such as the Angels, Giants, Padres, Twins, Yankees, Orioles, Pirates, Brewers and Rockies could all be on the lookout for starting pitching help this offseason.

Expected Contract

Jimenez has age and durability on his side as he heads into a free agent market that will consist of numerous teams looking to bolster their rotations. Many suitors could liken Jimenez's final five months of 2013 to his strong 2010 campaign and consider signing him an opportunity to get an ace-caliber starter at a below-market rate.

It's hard to peg someone who has had a comparable career, but Jorge De La Rosa was a similar high-strikeout, spotty command pitcher following the 2010 season when he signed a contract that guaranteed him three years and $30MM (two years, $21MM plus a $9MM player option that, if triggered, gave Colorado an $11MM club option for a fourth year). That contract is outdated, however, and De La Rosa never possessed Jimenez's durability.

If Jimenez decides he wants to risk a one-year deal in hopes of repeating 2013 and cashing in on a five-year deal at age 31, he could sign a contract in the one-year, $14MM range or simply accept a qualifying offer, should Cleveland extend one. A player with Jimenez's upside would certainly warrant $14MM on a one-year contract, however, the safer play would be for Jimenez to sign a contract in the three-year range.

Assuming he performs over the next three seasons, he could still hit the open market again heading into his age-33 season and earn another sizable contract. As a reliable innings eater with ace-caliber upside, I expect that he will sign a three-year, $39MM contract, with an outside chance that a team makes an Edwin Jackson type of offer (four years, $52MM).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Justin Masterson (oblique) is on track to throw a bullpen session on Friday.
Masterson has played catch four of the last five days and hasn't had any issues with his strained left oblique. The Indians are hoping that the big right-hander will be able to pitch before the end of the season, though it's possible it could be as a reliever. "What we'd like to do is have him be healthy and then figure out how to best use him as a weapon," manager Terry Francona said.


Source: Paul Hoynes on Twitter Sep 16 - 6:44 PM

CLEVELAND (92.3 The Fan) – The Indians are in the race, something that fans have waited for since the 2007 season, when they were a game away from going to the World Series.

It may be different from in 07, as the club is going for one of the two wild card spots, not the AL Central, which will go to Detroit unless there’s a complete breakdown in the last two weeks.

With the wild card clearly in sight, what’s been the difference in the Indians going from a team that was an afterthought last August and September to a contender for a wild card in 2013?

Here’s three good reasons.

1. Terry Francona - He’s got the players in the locker room believing, and has changed the attitude of the players into believing that they can win each and every day. He’s pushing all the right buttons, like a recent move in the lineup to play Jose Ramirez, who came up as a September call-up from AA Akron. He played vs the Royals, and scored a run and brought energy in a key win. The same with rookie pitcher Danny Salazar, who has been a key to the rotation in the last two months. Francona knows what’s at stake, yet he’s not putting too much pressure on his players to the point where what he is doing is working.

2. The Starting Rotation - When Justin Masterson went down, it looked as if it could be over, but give props to the other guys in the rotation who have all stepped up and been huge in the run to the wild card. The team got Corey Kluber back just in time, and the recent stretch of Ubaldo Jimenez has shown that he needs a long look for a new deal this offseason. One person that hasn’t gotten enough credit is Mickey Calloway, who in his first season as the Tribe’s pitching coach has them all pitching well and pitching with confidence.

3. The Bench – I can’t remember a season when the Indians bench bunch has stepped up and has had an impact like they have in 2013. Yan Gomes was part of that, but now he’s earned his way into playing in the starting lineup just about every day. Ryan Raburn was a roster invitee to camp, and now he’s got a new deal that will keep him in Cleveland a couple more years. Mike Aviles has been solid across the board, and Jason Giambi has done what has been asked, which is hit some bombs as well as be a player to go to in the locker room. Francona has not been afraid to use any of these players any night.

As the team continues the hopeful run to the postseason, there may be more to come when it comes to certain players that step up or areas of the team.

For now though, when you look at the roster and the way they have gotten to being a contender, the keys above are big reasons they are in a spot to play in October.

Indians' new math: Mediocre numbers add up to a good year
10 reasons not to count '13 Tribe out
dmanoloff@plaind.com

Based on individual statistics, the Indians have no business being in contention for the postseason. The following realities were in play entering Monday night's game against the Royals in Kansas City, Mo.:
• Zero .285 hitters among those who qualify for the batting title.
• One hitter with 20-plus homers (Nick Swisher, 20).
• One hitter with 75-plus RBI (Jason Kipnis, 78).
• Leadoff man Michael Bournwith .314 on-base percentage.
• One of best power hitters in the first half, Mark Reynolds, cut.
• Zero pitchers with 15-plus victories.
• Zero starting pitchers with 100plus innings and sub-3.40 ERA.
• Two-time All-Star shortstop, Asdrubal Cabrera, hitting .235 with a .687 OPS.
• Two-time All-Star closer Chris Perez with 24 saves and 3.55 ERA.
Yet the Indians were 81-68 and one-half game behind in the race for either wild card.
With this edition of the Indians, it often is easier to explain how they fail than how they succeed. Nonetheless, they refuse to go away.

Here are 10 reasons why the Tribe has managed to play meaningful games in September:

1. Wild card(s): The Indians' .544 winning percentage, while solid, is not good enough to sniff the AL Central penthouse occupied by powerful Detroit. Part of the reason: The Tribe went 4-15 against the Tigers this season. The second wild card appeared to be the only realistic path to the playoffs until the Rangers began stumbling and bumbling. Now both cards are in play. It also has helped that Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and the Yankees failed to get hot enough to run away with one or both of the spots.

2. Ownership's willingness to pivot and spend in offseason:
If Larry and Paul Dolan had repackaged/ thawed/microwaved the 2012 outfit, as many Tribe faithful feared based on the franchise's recent history, the result likely would have been more misery along the lines of 68-94. Instead, the Dolans invested TV-contract windfall(s) into their manager and several free agents as part of significant roster turnover. Even as the biggest signees, Swisher and Bourn, have performed below expectations, they still are much better than the status-quo alternative.

3. Manager Terry Francona: The Indians hired him within days of the 2012 season ending; it was the first tangible evidence that 2013 at least had a chance to be interesting. Francona came with a loaded resume that included two World Series rings while in Boston — and he has lived up to the hype. His players bought in well before spring training, Francona having called them over the winter to express his excitement about the present and future.
After a parting of ways with the Red Sox following the 2011 season, Francona spent last year as an ESPN analyst. Evidently, it recharged the batteries, because he has been a nonstop bundle of gum-chewing energy since the first day of spring training. Managers don't hit or pitch, but they can instill in their players an attitude and belief system. That the Tribe's won-lost record belies its individual stats is a reflection of the manager's ability to get more from the sum of the parts. His players trust he knows what he is doing.

Francona and his bling have gotten the players to embrace the marathon nature of a season. Perhaps Francona's biggest contribution has been to keep his club optimistic during the handful of times it appeared on the brink.

4. Pitching coach Mickey Callaway: He would be the first to say his pitchers should get the credit, and he would be correct. But there is no overstating Callaway's contribution to this staff. His pitchers swear by a man in his first year at such a position in the majors. Callaway has overseen the turnarounds of right-handers Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez at the top of the rotation. He also has helped righty Corey Kluber emerge as a viable starter and lefty Scott Kazmir revitalize his career.

Callaway is a pitching savant; He can spot mechanical flaws in a blink and implement fixes on the spot. Where repertoire is concerned, Callaway is a big believer in the power of the fastball and how it should set up the other pitches, not the other way around. His staff has a renewed confidence in throwing fastballs no matter the count or game situation.

5. Masterson and Jimenez:
If the Indians were to have any chance, they needed huge comebacks from their perceived best two starters. Last year, Masterson and Jimenez were a combined 2032 with an ERA north of 5.00 in 65 starts. This year, the duo is a combined 26-19 with a mid-3.00 ERA in 58 starts. Masterson's rediscovery of the slider has helped him complement the sinker and four-seamer. Jimenez has not worried as much about the moving parts in his delivery and focused on getting outs. As a result, the mechanics have been less of a problem. He has made the fastball work for him once again.

6. Kluber and Kazmir: In spring training, Kluber lost the fifthstarter competition to Kazmir and opened the season with Class AAA Columbus. Kazmir was coming off a year in which he pitched independent and winter ball but zero major-league innings. Kluber was in the Cleveland rotation by May because of the injuries and ineffectiveness of Brett Myers and inconsistency of Carlos Carrasco. Kluber and Kazmir entered Monday at a combined 17-13 with a sub-4.00 ERA in 272 innings. They have periodically flashed dominant stuff, but, most importantly, pitched well in the majority of starts and eaten enough innings.

7. Egalitarian offense: A team devoid of superstars or big-time individual seasons needs production from all areas. The Indians have attempted to compensate for the lack of big boppers by having eight players with 10 or more homers and 10 with nine or more. They have six players with 50-plus RBI and 10 with 40-plus.

8. Strong bench: For the longest time, the three headliners were utility men Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn and catcher Yan Gomes. Since mid-August, Gomes graduated to regular playing time. Raburn and Aviles have combined for 25 homers and 94 RBI in 538 at-bats. Jason Giambi, a part-time DH and pinch-hitter, is hitting .185 but has eight homers and 29 RBI.

9. Ability to hit lefties: Last year, the Indians almost were defeated before they took the field when they knew the opposition starter was left-handed. This year, thanks to the additions of switch-hitter Swisher and right-handed hitters Aviles, Raburn, Gomes and Drew Stubbs, the Tribe is significantly better equipped to face lefties. The Tribe is hitting .270 with a .768 OPS against them.

10. One-run effectiveness:
Good teams win close games, no matter how they occur. The Indians are no exception. They entered Monday at 26-17 in onerun games. The Orioles, as much as any MLB club, know how winning the close ones can shape a season. Last year, they were lethal in one-run games (29-9) and went 93-69 overall and made the playoffs. This year, they are well below .500 (16-28) in one-run decisions and have a 79-70 overall record.

Too long to post, but a good story on all the possibilities if there is a 4-way tie for the WC. Seems unlikely that it will happen, though!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1777 ... -wild-card