Cleveland Sports Forum

VT'er wrote:End of Sizemore and Hafner certainly was a factor too.

The hanging on of Sizemore and Hafner with with minimal game time impact with management contractual approval has affected team fanship and success.

Spring Notebook: Gauging the minor league signings

Jason Giambi (Photo: AP)
By Steve Orbanek


February 15, 2013

It may still be chilly in Northeast Ohio, but that’s certainly not the case in Goodyear, Arizona.

As of this week, all Cleveland Indians pitchers and position players have arrived for spring training. It’s the first step in the long ride that is a Major League baseball season.

There’s plenty of familiar faces this spring and some pretty prominent new ones (ex. Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn), but there’s also a handful of new faces that do not necessarily have all the hype surrounding the Tribe’s big free agent signings. Of course, the new faces being referred to are the team’s minor league signings.

This season alone, the Indians have signed Scott Kazmir, Jason Giambi, Matt Capps, Ryan Raburn, Ben Francisco, Diasuke Matsuzaka, Rich Hill and Jeremy Hermida to minor league deals. In recent memory, the most notable Indians minor league signing to bear fruit was Casey Blake, but it seems as if this year’s crop could potentially have a similar impact.

So, let’s take a look at each player individually and also predict how likely each player is to make the team. Each player’s chances will be designated as either very likely, likely, moderate, unlikely, very unlikely.

Scott Kazmir, left-handed starting pitcher

Can you believe that Kazmir just turned 29 on January 24? It seems like it was forever ago that this guy was carving up masterpieces with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and recording a league-best 239 strikeouts in a season. A former two-time All-Star, there’s a lot to like about Kazmir, and this does seem to be an attractive signing. Kazmir enjoyed a solid winter campaign this year (4.37 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings of work), and his velocity reportedly is also back as he apparently was throwing as hard as 95 miles per hour. It might seem easy to believe that Kazmir has a chance to make this team since the team has no fifth starter yet, but it’s still probably unlikely. Kazmir has not pitched in the Major Leagues since 2011. Even then, he started only one game with the Los Angeles Angels and was rocked to the tune of five earned runs allowed in 1 2/3 innings. While his winter performance is nice, winter ball statistics usually do not translate to the pros. Kazmir needs to reestablish his value, which is why he will probably start the season at Triple-A Columbus.

Chances to make 2013 squad: Unlikely

Jason Giambi, left-handed hitting designated hitter

It was a little puzzling when the Indians decided to sign the 42-year-old Giambi, but it does appear as if Tribe skipper Terry Francona is very pleased with the move. Giambi does have some value because he still is capable of taking a walk, and it seems as if some power may still be there. While he had a down season last year, Giambi actually hit 13 home runs in 152 plate appearances in 2011 with the Colorado Rockies. Giambi may also have been attractive to the Indians as it appears as if he can still play first base in a pinch, which would not have been the case had the Indians signed a different option like Jim Thome or Travis Hafner. The current roster is already pretty full, but if Giambi impresses this spring, then you have to think he will have a legitimate chance at making this team.

Chances to make 2013 squad: Moderate

Matt Capps, right-handed relief pitcher

It was somewhat surprising to see the Indians add Capps on a minor league deal. While he did miss much of 2012 with a right rotator cuff injury, he was still the Minnesota Twins closer to start the season. It’s hard to figure exactly where Capps would fit in with the Indians, but it’s never a bad thing when you’re able to add a 29-year-old pitcher with 138 career saves on a minor league deal. Capps has never been much of strikeout guy (6.5 K/9 for his career), but he still has late-inning experience that comes at a premium in the Major Leagues. If he is indeed healthy, he could have a shot at making the 2013 squad, but it’s still somewhat hard to figure what role he takes. He could be a decent middle-relief arm, but it seems as if bullpen positions are already committed to right-handers Vinnie Pestano, Chris Perez, Joe Smith and Matt Albers. That would leave just one more spot for a right-hander, and who knows if the Indians will choose Capps over the internal options. It just seems as if Capps may have been better suited to sign a minor league deal with a team other than the Indians.

Chances to make 2013 squad: Unlikely

Ryan Raburn, right-handed hitting utility man

Like many of the other signings already touched on, there is a lot to like about Raburn and what he potentially brings to the table. He really had a decent run with the Detroit Tigers until last season when he posted a .171/.226/.480 line in 66 games and 205 plate appearances. However, for his career, Raburn still owns a .256/.311/.430 line with 54 homes runs and 216 RBI. It certainly seems as if 2012 was just a down year as from 2009 to 2011, Raburn hit at least 14 home runs and drove in at least 45 runs each season. Raburn is also valuable because he can play every infield position outside of shortstop, and he can play all three outfield positions. Knowing this, it may seem as if he could be the most likely candidate to earn a spot on the Tribe’s 2013 roster. The only thing hurting Raburn is that the Indians already have a utility man in Mike Aviles, but Raburn can also be a backup outfielder, which increases his value.

Chances to make 2013 squad: Likely

Ben Francisco, right-handed hitting outfielder

Francisco is a familiar name to Indians fans as he was a member of the team’s roster from 2007 through part of 2009. Francisco played on three teams last season (Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros), and his line of .234/.282/.402 was not particularly impressive. Francisco has now not hit double-digit home runs since 2009, and it’s hard to figure where he would fit in considering the Indians now have four players in their starting lineup that are capable of playing the outfield. Raburn becomes a more attractive option since he can play both the outfield and infield.

Chances to make 2013 squad: Very unlikely

Daisuke Matsuzaka, right-handed starting pitcher

Matsuzaka is now more than 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery. While he is a major question mark like Kazmir, at least he has pitched in the Major Leagues as recently as 2012. While the results were not favorable (8.28 ERA in 11 starts with Boston), it still seems to be a better measuring stick than Kazmir’s one start in 2011. However, aside from his first two Major League seasons, Matsuzaka has really been only a slightly below-average Major League starter. Tommy John surgery could have really improved his stuff, but it’s still hard to predict that he will have a chance to win a job since he has not succeeded consistently at the Major League level since 2008. Also, even if Matsuzaka impresses in camp, one has to believe that the favorite to win the fifth spot in the rotation is Carlos Carrasco. If Carrasco falters, then maybe Matsuzaka becomes the leading candidate, but until then, Matsuzaka’s chances of making the team are moderate at best.

Chances to make 2013 squad: Moderate

Rich Hill, left-handed reliever

Hill is an intriguing signing because he fills a clear need of the club: left-handed relief pitching. Hill underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011, so his 2012 performance was limited, but it was still a good one. In 19 2/3 innings of work, Hill posted a 1.83 ERA and struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings. Hill may not be the best of the Indians crop of minor league signings, but he may have one of the best chances to make the Major League club. The Indians currently have no proven left-handed relievers in their bullpen, and while Hill is far from proven, he does have more experience than the team’s current options. The Tribe must now decide if they want to go with Hill and pair him with one of their young lefties, or if they would rather give the relief jobs to both of their youngsters (Scott Barnes and Nick Hagadone). If Hill does impress this camp, then he should have a very good chance at making the team’s roster.

Chances to make 2013 squad: Moderate

Jeremy Hermida, left-handed hitting outfielder

There was once a time where Hermida was a young, budding prospect with the Florida Marlins. While he did have some decent seasons along the way, he ultimately has since become not much more than a fourth outfielder. At 29 years, he is still somewhat young, but it seems as if he is a major long shot to make the team. He has played in just a total of 43 games during the last two seasons, and he really does not possess any skills that the Indians do not already have internally.

Chances to make 2013 squad: Very unlikely

Steve can be reached via email at orbaneks@gmail.com.

Terry Pluto: About the Tribe...

1. Many fans think the team's change of direction began with the hiring of veteran manager Terry Francona. That certainly signaled a new way of doing business. But what really energized the Tribe was trading Shin-Soo Choo to acquire Drew Stubbs and pitching prospect Trevor Bauer.

2. The Tribe thought they'd have to include Asdrubal Cabrera in that deal, because they desperately wanted Bauer. When Choo (heading to free agency in 2014) helped them come up with Bauer, they wondered if they could retool rather than start a major reconstruction job.

3. If the $240 million deal for STO had fallen apart or the new national television contract had not been a reality, the Dolans would be less likely to spend. But the Choo/Bauer deal combined with the new TV revenue and Francona's hiring convinced ownership to move forward in the free-agent market.

4. The Indians thought, "What if we can keep Chris Perez and Cabrera (unless we receive a major offer) and add pieces? What if we can erase some of the ifs on the team -- such as the outfield, DH, first base? What if we keep Perez, have an excellent bullpen and upgrade the defense to help the rotation?"

5. The Tribe knows starting pitching remains a huge if, but the market was weak in that area -- and the prices extremely high. They have no significant outfielders in the upper levels of the minors, so they signed Nick Swisher ($56 million for four years) and added Stubbs. When the price tag dropped dramatically for Michael Bourn, suddenly the Indians erased uncertainty in the outfield and at first base -- as Swisher will play there.

6. Mark Reynolds was initially signed to play first, but now he'll mostly DH. He strikes out a lot, but he's durable. It's better than a rerun with Travis Hafner, or another DH with major injury problems. As for Jason Giambi, the 42-year-old is on a minor-league contract so they can cut him if he falters.

7. Durability was a key in the Tribe's shopping list. Over the last five seasons, Swisher has averaged 151 games, Bourn 149 and Reynolds 146. There is always the chance they can be hurt, but that has not been their track records.

8. Bourn strikes out too much (155 times in 2012). His .348 on-base percentage with the Braves in 2012 would have ranked 25th in the American League -- the same as Michael Brantley last season. While Bourn's .274 batting average and nine homers are nothing special, his ability to reach base and steal bases is a major asset as a leadoff hitter. Yes, he bats left-handed, but hit .275 vs. righties, .273 vs. lefties in 2012.

9. A year ago, here were how some key Tribe lefty hitters performed against lefties: Brantley (.265), Choo (.199), Hafner (.197), Johnny Damon (.205), Jason Kipnis (.215), Casey Kotchman (.221) and Lonnie Chisenhall (.184). The team batted .234 vs. lefties, compared to .259 vs. righties.

10. While the lineup is vastly improved and the bullpen should be solid and deep, the big ifs are in the rotation. Tribe fans know the litany -- Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez were a combined 20-32 with a 5.22 ERA. The starters had a 5.25 ERA. Carlos Carrasco is coming off elbow reconstruction. Bauer has only 170 pro innings. Brett Myers is the No. 3 starter, and was a reliever last year with Houston. Other candidates are Zach McAllister, Corey Kluber and David Huff. None are proven at the major-league level. Daisuke Matsuzaka is a huge question mark, with a 17-22 record and 5.53 ERA over the last four years.

Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez know Cleveland Indians' hopes for improvement in 2013 rest in their arms

By Paul Hoynes, The Plain Dealer
on February 16, 2013 at 6:54 PM, updated February 16, 2013 at 6:59 PM Print



GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- Baseball players, especially pitchers, have to live in the mirror of their mind. In good times and bad, know thyself is the rule of the game.

Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez took a long look into that mirror after combining for 32 losses last season. Things were so bad that Jimenez said, "I'd have the ball in my hand and didn't know what to do with it."

After an off-season of study and work, the top two starters in the Indians' rotation have reached two simple, but important, conclusions to make themselves effective starters again.

Said Masterson, "I've got to allow myself to throw strikes a lot more often." Last season Masterson struck out a career-high 159 batters, but matched that with a career-high 88 walks.

Said Jimenez, "I have to get my mechanics and everything ready before I leave camp." Jimenez said his mechanics were jumbled for the first two months of 2012. Those that saw him the last four months of the season could have said the same thing.

Conclusions are easy to reach. Turning them into reality is much harder. That's why this spring training is so critical to Masterson, Jimenez and a team that has been primed with $117 million in free-agent contracts.


Masterson went 11-15 with a 4.93 ERA last year. He led the Indians in wins, innings pitched (206.1), strikeouts and starts (34). Consistency, however, was not his thing. In nine of his 34 starts, Masterson allowed six or more earned runs. He highlighted only seven of those starts on Saturday, but the point was the same.

"I think we did really good except for seven games and those seven games werereally bad," he said. "We just didn't do a good job of controlling things in those seven games. Instead of giving up seven or eight runs, we should have been able to give up four or five. That totally changed everything."

Masterson, like Jimenez, is a big man with a lot of moving parts in his delivery. The fact that all those moving parts were never aligned for an extended period of time led to his season of peaks and valleys.

"I'd have two or three good ones and one really bad one," said Masterson, 6-5 and 250 pounds. "I have some good ideas why and I think I will be able to make the adjustment and do a whole heckuva a lot better this year."

Masterson underwent surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder after the 2011 season. Manager Terry Francona felt the shoulder was still bothering Masterson last year and prevented him from "getting into his delivery."

Masterson agreed the shoulder was an issue, but not in the way one would think.

"Some of my problems were because I felt extra strong," said Masterson. "For the first time [following the surgery] I could work out really hard. In some of those games, I tried to throw harder and the ball didn't sink."

This season Masterson believes less can be more in throwing more strikes.

"I want to keep the effort level consistent," he said. "We don't always need to throw 97 mph. If we're at 92 or 93, that's OK. Maybe on some days we are consistent with our low to high velocity, but it's not because we're forcing the issue."

New pitching coach Mickey Callaway visited Jimenez twice this winter in the Dominican Republic. Francona visited as well. It is clear that the organization needs some kind of positive return on Jimenez, who cost them No.1 picks Drew Pomeranz and Alex White in 2011.

"As a pitcher, the thing that you put in your mind, is that you have to be part of the team and do everything possible to help the team win every five days," said Jimenez. "That's something I didn't do last year. I have to find a way to do that this year."

Jimenez, 9-17 with a 5.70 ERA in 31 starts in 2012, said his delivery feels the same now as when he won 19 games with Colorado in 2010. He spent the winter looking at old video of himself, while working with one of his old amateur coaches.

Francona stood behind Jimenez on Saturday while he threw his bullpen session. He encouraged the 6-5, 220-pound right-hander for keeping the ball low in the strike zone.

"I was very happy," said Francona.

If Francona can say the same thing about Jimenez and Masterson in September, reality may have actually replaced conclusions.

Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez know Cleveland Indians' hopes for improvement in 2013 rest in their arms

Or perhaps between their ears.

The 2013 Indians lineup: Predicting the punchouts

By Andy Nichols (Indians Prospect Insider)

February 18, 2013

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Cleveland Indians fans will be urged to dress warmly when attending games this season at Progressive Field. Strong gusts of wind throughout even the summer months may cause unseasonably cool temperatures in Cleveland. National weather pundits will flock to cities featuring the Cleveland Indians as Windstorm Wahoo sweeps across the nation, from Cleveland to Seattle to Miami.

What’s the cause of this windstorm? A 2013 Tribe lineup that could potentially put up historic strike out numbers.

Of the nine players projected to start in Cleveland’s lineup next year, six struck out over 100 times last season (Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs, Michael Bourn, Jason Kipnis, Nick Swisher and Carlos Santana) while Asdrubal Cabrera struck out 99 times. Lonnie Chisenhall only had 151 plate appearances last year, but his strikeout rate of 17.9 percent suggests he would strike out right around the 100 mark if he had played a full season.

Out of those six players who struck out more than 100 times, the bottom two were Kipnis and Santana with 109 and 101, respectively. The next closest was Swisher with 141. In other words, the bulk of the 2013 Indians’ strikeout woes will come from their new additions.

To try to determine just how much this Cleveland lineup may strike out, I decided to do some projections based off of their 2012 strike out rate. I projected each starter to have 650 plate appearances; some will have more than that, some will have less. There’s obviously no way of predicting injuries, so this clearly is not an exact science, but it gives an idea. I’m going to project 550 plate appearances for Chisenhall and Stubbs, as I think those two will get spelled most often. Here’s what I came up with for the 2013 line up:


That comes out to a grand total of 1,126 strikeouts, just out of the projected starting lineup. That number would have been the ninth most in the AL last season, and again, that’s just from the starting lineup.

To get a projected grand total of team strikeouts, I did my projections for the four bench players as well. The four players I went with were Mike Aviles, Lou Marson, Ryan Raburn and Jason Giambi. Yes, Jason Giambi. I, myself, do not believe Giambi should make this team, but listening to Francona talk about him, it sure seems like he has a legitimate shot. Plus, Giambi played in the Bigs last year and Chris McGuiness did not, so I’m going to project Giambi.

I gave each player the number of plate appearances that I think they may see this upcoming season. They’re just my prediction, and injuries will always come into play.


The bench players project to 224 strikeouts, which brings the whole team total to 1,350 strikeouts. Indians.com beat writer Jordan Bastian recently did his own projections and had the Indians striking out a total of 1,373 times this season. Those 1,350 punch outs (or Bastian’s 1,373) would have ranked second in the AL last year behind Oakland’s 1,387. Yes, I know, Oakland was a playoff team last year, but the A’s also had the second best team ERA, which is something Cleveland almost surely won’t have.

The 2011 Indians finished second in the AL with 1,269 strike outs. That team had fans irate at how often Indians’ players swung through pitches, and their total was 81 less than my projected total for the 2013 season.

The one “upside” to striking out as frequently as the Indians will is that they will run an opposing pitcher’s pitch count up, because they’ll have to see at least three pitches to strike out. Plus they should also draw their fair share of walks. But is that really much of an upside? Today’s bullpens are full of flame-throwing strike out pitchers, so would getting to them early really be THAT much of an advantage for this strikeout-prone team? I guess we will find out.

Another thing to remember is how effective just putting the ball in play can be during a baseball game. A grounder to second moves a guy from second to third, a relatively deep fly ball scores a run from third, a tapper to third gives a guy the chance to sprint in safely at first. Hit and runs could also be out of the question with several players in this line up.

There’s no debating that on paper, the 2013 version of the Cleveland offense has the potential to be much better than the offenses we’ve seen in recent years. There is serious speed and some good power on this team that will surely help score more runs. So, here’s to hoping that those home runs come when men are on base, and the strikeouts come when the bases are empty. But if it’s the other way around, it could be painful to watch.

I predict that that projection is wrong, and that they will strike out many fewer times than the author says they will.

I actually could be optimistic about this 2013 edition of The Cleveland Indians if Dolan was not keeping that Shapiro lead weight around adding cost to the family concessions to pay his sad salary he will be paid and has been paid in his years of futility production for fans.

I'm real suspect on this Bauer kid, but I'll hope for the organizational best.

Teams do not loosely part with gifted young pitching talent, and the AZ Diamondbacks are far from my fave organization since Coangelo got the rest of MLB owners to bail him out and buy him a World Series championship as a reward for his bad financial management.

I fear that Antonetti and Shapiro bought a boat with a blown cylinder, and a weak transom.


I suspect Jason Donald and Choo will have nice seasons in 2013.

And it goes on.......and on.......and on. Just think how much good alcohol it takes for someone to think these posts are interesting.

Lots of enthusiasm around the table among my breakfast pals.

Power Ranking All 30 Projected MLB Lineups Entering Spring Training
By Joel Reuter (Featured Columnist) on February 18, 2013
Bleacher Reports

Cleveland Indians RANK among both leagues:14.

Overview

Expected to sell this offseason, the Indians instead wound up improving their lineup significantly. They have an outside chance at contending for a postseason spot as a result.

They traded free-agent-to-be Shin-Soo Choo for pitching prospect Trevor Bauer and outfielder Drew Stubbs, then signed Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and Mark Reynolds as free agents.

If third base prospect Lonnie Chisenhall can lock down the hot corner, the team won't have a real hole in its lineup.


Projected Starting Lineup

1. CF Michael Bourn
2. 2B Jason Kipnis
3. SS Asdrubal Cabrera
4. 1B Nick Swisher
5. C Carlos Santana
6. DH Mark Reynolds
7. LF Michael Brantley
8. 3B Lonnie Chisenhall
9. RF Drew Stubbs

Projected Bench

C Lou Marson
1B Jason Giambi
2B/OF Ryan Raburn
IF/OF Mike Aviles

That's 2nd best in the ALC on these rankings. Tigers are rated #2 trailing only the Angels. They will be tough to match.

http://www.stationcaster.com/player_ski ... &f=1102541

Drew Stubbs on ESPN 850.

I guess this is worth posting but it's before we signed Bourne.

Fantasy baseball 2013 team previews: Cleveland Indians


"This guy here's dead!"

Sorry, but if you thought I was going to start an Indians preview with anything other than my favorite line from Major League, you were sorely mistaken. No one listed on the Indians roster is actually dead. In fact, I think this team might have some pluck to it this year. The top five in the batting order isn't bad; Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana are each elite players are their respective positions; Nick Swisher's contract may have seemed a bit, um, generous, but Cleveland can bank on 25 homers and a .360 OBP; Asdrubal Cabrera is entering his age-27 season and has been an All-Star each of the last two seasons; and my pal Jeff Erickson over at RotoWire recently broke down how Michael Brantley isn't all that different from B.J. Upton. See? Not bad.

The story of Cleveland's offseason was the three-team trade that sent Shin-Soo Choo from Cleveland to Cincinnati and Trevor Bauer from Arizona to Cleveland. Arizona soured on him quickly, but Bauer is only 22 years old and was ranked the No. 9 prospect by Baseball America at the start of last season. If he can start to fulfill some of that promise this year, the Indians might field a decent rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez may never be what he was in Colorado, but the Indians are only asking him to be their No. 3 starter. With Justin Masterson at the top of the rotation and Brett Myers slotting fourth, it could be worse.
Projected roster

Lineup:

1. Michael Brantley, LF
2. Jason Kipnis, 2B
3. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
4. Carlos Santana, C
5. Nick Swisher, RF
6. Mark Reynolds, 1B
7. Mike Aviles, DH
8. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
9. Drew Stubbs, CF

Rotation:

1. Justin Masterson
2. Trevor Bauer
3. Ubaldo Jimenez
4. Brett Myers
5. Zach McAllister

Bullpen: Chris Perez (closer), Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone, Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, Scott Barnes [He is unaware of Cody Allen]
Key questions

• How can Carlos Santana's power outage be explained? Santana dipped to 18 homers in 2012 after belting 27 in '11, but all of his other numbers improved. He increased his batting average to .252 from .239 and his OBP to .365 from .351, added two-tenths of a point to his walk rate and slashed four percentage points from his strikeout rate. His wOBA dipped a bit, but remained essentially flat (.351 vs. 344) and his BABIP increased from a mind-bogglingly low .263 to a not-totally-egregious .278. However, he hit nine fewer homers and eight fewer doubles, and his ISO plummeted 50 points to .168. So what happened?

The biggest difference: The diet of pitches Santana saw. Pitchers threw him fewer fastballs and increased the number of curveballs, changeups and split-finger fastballs with Santana at the plate. Most of his peripheral stats stayed in line, but his HR/FB ratio fell off a cliff, dropping all the way to 11.5 percent from 16 percent. While pitchers will likely keep feeding him off-speed stuff, that dramatic of a dive in HR/FB ratio feels fluky. This is Santana's age-27 season, so he should just be entering his prime. Given that he has strong on-base skills, he remains one of the better fantasy catchers. However, for the first time in a long time there's some depth in the catcher pool. I like Santana, but I can't rank him any higher than eighth on my board.

• Forget a power outage -- what about the Bauer outage? We touched on it a bit earlier, but it's shocking that the Diamondbacks were willing to deal a 22-year-old pitcher who was considered one of the best prospects in all of baseball just a season ago. Even though they gave up their best player in Choo, it was a no-brainer for the Indians to swing the deal for Bauer. It's hard to draw any real conclusions on him, given that he only has 117 professional innings under his belt. The Indians will likely keep him on a much longer leash than did the Diamondbacks, and that's a good thing. Arizona was uncomfortable with Bauer's somewhat [sic] unorthodox training routine, but it's hard to imagine Cleveland would trade for him, then try to force him to change his ways.

In 82 innings last year with Triple-A Reno of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Bauer went 5-1 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 97 strikeouts. The 35 walks were a bit high, but the ability to miss bats with that sort of consistency at that young of an age portends good things in his future. Moreover, Cleveland will be the best environment in which he has pitched in his entire professional career. He's a four-pitch pitcher, substituting a split-finger for the slider, though he will dabble with the latter on occasion. There will be growing pains, but there will also be some serous highlights. Make sure Bauer is on your board.

• Can Mark Reynolds and Drew Stubbs combine for 400 strikeouts? Just kidding Indians fans. Seriously, though -- they might.

• Can Jason Kipnis avoid a second-half slide? Kipnis was a revelation in the first half of the season last year, hitting .277/.345/.419 with 10 homers and 20 steals, and probably should have been an All-Star. He fell off the map after the break, though, hitting just .233/.322/.328 with three homers and 11 steals the rest of the way. It was just his age-25 season and his first full year in the majors, so there's no reason to hold his swoon against him, especially given that he hit at every level in the minors (he's a career .297/.378/.486 hitter in the minors). Instead, let's try to explain it.

In the second half, all of Kipnis' peripheral stats went in the wrong direction. His line-drive rate fell two percentage points. His ground-ball rate jumped seven percentage points, pushing him north of 50 percent. His infield fly ball rate doubled. All these suggest a young player getting tired during his first taste of the major league grind. Now pushing up against the start of his prime, it would be a huge surprise if Kipnis wasn't better suited to handle the rigors of a 162-game season this year. I think a 20/30 season is in the offing, and I would not be shocked to see Kipnis finish the year ranked higher than Dustin Pedroia.

Sleeper

Drew Stubbs: I know I took a cheap shot at him earlier and I don't usually buy into the "change of scenery" argument, but Stubbs definitely needed to get out of Cincinnati. He'll have essentially zero pressure hitting in the nine-hole for the Indians, and he can still get after it on the basepaths. You'll need to buttress your rates elsewhere, but 15/35 feels like a realistic projection.

Bust

Asdrubal Cabrera: I know you want to buy in, especially given the shallowness of the position, but Cabrera needs to be the 25-homer, 92-RBI guy he was in 2011 to justify his draft position, not the 16-homer, 68-RBI guy he was a year ago. Surprisingly, his line-drive rate surged six percentage points from '11 to 23.4 percent last year, and he cut his ground-ball rate to 41.1 percent from 43.8 percent. That tells me the power numbers he put up in '11 were an anomaly. Stay away.

Breakout

Vinnie Pestano: We know somewhere around 10 relievers who start the year as closers will not end the year in that role, and Chris Perez is as good a bet as any to lose the job. He may have saved 36 games in 2011 and 39 last year, but he hasn't exactly been overwhelming, striking out just 98 batters in 107.1 innings in that stretch. Meanwhile, Pestano fanned 76 batters in 70 innings last year and 84 in 62 innings in '11, while posting WHIPs of 1.10 and 1.05, respectively. He'll be the closer by mid-May.

AL-only players to know

Lonnie Chisenhall: Is this the year the former top prospect puts it all together? It's hard to believe he's just entering his age-24 season. That's a good enough reason to take a shot on him, especially since the Indians will hand him the reins at third base on Opening Day.

Zach McAllister: The 25-year-old righty fanned 110 batters in 125.1 innings with the Indians last year after going 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA at Triple-A Columbus. He should slot in the rotation right away.

Vinnie Pestano: See above. He's the best reliever on the team and will be closing games within six weeks. You heard it here first.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/fantas ... z2LTTWtX00

When Tools Go Right

The Career of Kenny Lofton

By John Sickels on Feb 20, 8:00a

We've looked recently at some "tools bust" prospects like Delmon Young and Ruben Rivera. It is time to switch gears and look at an outstanding success story from the tools players category: Kenny Lofton.

Kenny Lofton was drafted by the Houston Astros in the 17th round in 1988, out of the University of Arizona. He was best-known as a basketball player in college, where he was the starting point guard for the Wildcats. He is one of only two men to play in the college basketball Final Four and the MLB World Series, the other being former pitcher Tim Stoddard.

With just a handful of college baseball games under his belt, Lofton was considered very raw as a baseball player, but promising due to his blazing speed and superior overall athleticism. His pro debut was not particularly successful: he hit .214/.286/.273 in 48 games for Auburn in the New York-Penn League. He stole 26 bases in 30 attempts, but the lack of power combined with a high strikeout rate (51 in 48 games) was a poor combination and did not auger well for his future. His defense was rough, though the tools were there. At this point he'd have rated as a Grade C prospect and a long shot, although "with higher potential" would be an appropriate modifier.

Lofton returned to Auburn in 1989, hitting .263/.336/.309 with 26 steals in 34 games. The Astros saw signs of progress, so he was promoted to Low-A Asheville in August, where he hit .329/.421/.390 in 22 games. Overall, at the two levels he hit .292/.372/.344 with 40 steals in 51 attempts, 26 walks and 40 strikeouts in 192 at-bats. He was clearly making progress developing a feel for baseball and good leadoff skills. Lack of power was an issue, but no one expected that from him at that point. I would probably have stayed with a Grade C given the small sample sizes involved, perhaps a Grade C+.

Lofton took a huge step forward in 1990, hitting .331/.407/.395 with 62 steals for Osceola in the High-A Florida State League. He drew 61 walks in 556 plate appearances, reduced his strikeout rate, and continued to refine his defensive skills in the outfield. Baseball America rated him the Number Five prospect in the FSL.

The main concern here was that he was already 23 and thus a bit old for the league, but given his lack of amateur experience, it was reasonable to cut him some slack. A similar prospect nowadays would probably get a strong B- or maybe a B from me.
In 1991 he jumped directly to Tucson in the Pacific Coast League, skipping Double-A. He hit .308/.367/.417 with 30 steals and 52 walks for Tucson, with 19 doubles and 17 triples. His walk rate dropped, and his stolen base success ratio was unimpressive (23 caught stealing). Considering that he had skipped Double-A, it was a very good season, but Tucson and the PCL were a friendly environment.

He played in 20 games for the Astros and hit just .203/.253/.216 in 74 at-bats. Nowadays, I would view a similar player as likely becoming a valuable fourth outfielder due to their speed and defense, but I'd worry about him hitting enough to play regularly. I'd probably give out another Grade B-.
The Astros traded Lofton and a minor league pitcher named Dave Rohde to the Cleveland Indians for pitcher Willie Blair and catcher Eddie Taubensee. Loften opened 1992 in the Cleveland lineup, and his rookie year was very successful: .285/.362/.365 with 66 steals to lead the American League. His defense was terrific and he finished with a WAR of 6.3, OPS+107, finishing second in the Rookie of the Year balloting.

Lofton followed up with a .325/.408/.408, 70-steal, 7.3 WAR campaign in 1993, and it just got better from there. He made contact, controlled the strike zone reasonably well, and developed enough power to keep the pitchers honest, hitting double-digit homers seven times in his career. Even considering the robust offensive context in which he was playing in the late 90s and early 00s, that was pretty shocking considering his early lack of pop. His OPS+ was better than league average for 11 years in a row. He made six All Star teams.

As good as his hitting was, his outfield was genuinely spectacular, at least if you believe TZ and UZR: he finished +114.5 runs on defense alone in his career, boosting his WAR to 66.2 combined with an overall offensive line of .299/.372/.423, OPS+107, wRC+110.

Lofton's 66.2 career WAR ranks him 14th All-Time among center fielders, in a range with Duke Snider (71.8), Richie Ashburn (67.7), Max Carey (66.1), and 19th century Billy Hamilton (65.6).

Lofton is close to a best-case example of a pure athlete with little experience figuring out how to play baseball. In the minors, Lofton always showed good speed and athleticism, but he didn't know how to play baseball at first. His on-base abilities took a bit of time to develop, and he never showed much long-drive power in the minors. But he thrived once he turned his attention to baseball full-time in 1990. Looking at him in 1988 or 1989, you'd never think he could become the player he did.