Cleveland Sports Forum

The amount of shopping they do will probably depend on the salary load they take on after trading Cabrerra, Choo, and Perez.

And of course if they get any ML-ready ballplayers.

Then there are the salary adjustments due to Sizemore, Hafner, and Carmona/Hernandez.

And playing for Francona may save a couple bucks with an old Red Sox player or two.

We have already lost out on Ortiz. I am afraid we will only acquire ex Red Sox no one else wants.

Miami has traded Reyes, Josh Johnson and Buerhle to THE Bluejays. Just once why
cannot the Indians get into a trade like this!

Tribe doing research on broken down free agents.

civ ollilavad wrote:We have already lost out on Ortiz. I am afraid we will only acquire ex Red Sox no one else wants.

Are you really worried about that ? Why would you waste money on him ?

Marlins management to the fans who built them a brand-new stadium and got yet another fire sale as a reward: Sorry, suckers!

Broken down free agents defined:

34 year old OF who batted 165. Jason Bay = Johnny Damon.

Bay is so bad, the Mets....I repeat, the Mets paid him 21 Million NOT to play for them this season.

Yet Antonetti is still sniffing around.

The tribe has a big problem....they like players that looked good to them 5 years ago.

"Jake Taylor--wish we had him two years ago."

"We did."

"Four years, then."

There's little reason for Cleveland Indians to hesitate on dealing Shin-Soo Choo: Bud Shaw

Published: Tuesday, November 13, 2012, 6:40 PM Updated: Wednesday, November 14, 2012, 12:49 AM
By Bud Shaw, The Plain Dealer

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Shin-Soo Choo won't play for South Korea in the World Baseball Classic in March.
That would qualify as a subtle message that 2013 is all about maximizing his value in free agency -- if agent Scott Boras hadn't already banged pots and pans, and shouted those intentions through a bullhorn.

Agents often steer their clients into free agency and away from smaller markets. Nothing new there. Few have broadcast what's about to happen next as clearly as Boras did on Choo's behalf when he self-servingly [if accurately] called out Indians' ownership.

"Choo's let it be known that he has a desire to win," Boras told MLB.com. "I think the ownership in Cleveland, foundationally, they're going to have to illustrate some dynamics with new revenues and where they stand about what they do to show their fan base and their players who they are in competing."

Boras said that would be a "new calling" for an ownership that hasn't made its intentions clear.
OK. Boras and Choo want to be paid much more than the Indians are offering. As for the talk of Choo's desire to win, Boras hasn't often equated winning with anything other than a suitor's willingness to spend lots of cash.

Despite Boras' agent-speak, that sound you hear is a single clap growing into a standing ovation by Indians fans who couldn't agree more about the Dolans. What exactly are the Indians' intentions? Did they hire Terry Francona to chase a World Series in the remaining time they have with Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Chris Perez and Ubaldo Jimenez? (Let's throw Jimenez in there, not based on his value but because the front office used his acquisition to declare a two-year window open on contention.)

Or will they ask Francona to assist in a detonation and rebuild -- trading all marketable players and lending a baseball lifer's input to scouting young talent?

All we know is Francona continues to insist he never asked for assurances of a certain payroll number in 2013 and beyond. You wish he had. It might mean he's here because he liked what he heard. Instead, if a significant increase isn't in the offing, you can expect the payroll to approximate last year's $65 million. Meaning everything will have to go right. Then they'll have to get lucky.

Asked last week if he'll be managing a contender next season, Francona found it impossible to say for sure, citing the "Vacancy" sign in left field, at first base and DH. Other than that, full speed ahead.

Or back, if the Indians like what other teams are offering.

At this point we can only talk about the Indians' tradable pieces in general because we don't know what value each could bring in a deal. Choo is the easiest call. Trade him over the off-season. There's no chance he's coming back.

With his makeup, I'd bet on him heaping too much pressure on himself in the final year of his contract.
There's at least as good a chance he'll under-perform than become the difference between the Indians making the postseason or watching from the sidelines again.

If they can get a young, major-league caliber outfielder in return for Choo, do it tomorrow. (Could he at least hit right-handed and for some power?)

Frustration over Asdrubal Cabrera's fitness and his second-half drop-offs is reason to entertain offers. But he's signed through 2014. The hope is Francona can reach some players Manny Acta didn't. Cabrera would be the star pupil in that experiment.

Next to Choo, trading Chris Perez makes the most sense since the Indians would be dealing from a position of strength. It would have to be for the right deal, though, not because Perez speaks his mind and caused distractions last year.

Perez's streams of consciousness spared no one, not fans or ownership. So Boras wasn't saying anything particularly novel when he questioned the Dolans' intentions. And to be fair, even if the Dolans did "foundationally" illustrate new revenue dynamics, Choo still wouldn't sign early and Boras would still convince a big-market team Choo was a must-have. It's what he does best.

That's why Choo's a must-trade.

It's about all we can say for certain about the 2013 Indians.

Cleveland Indians taking a close look at Jason Bay
Published: Tuesday, November 13, 2012, 7:29 PM
Updated: Tuesday, November 13, 2012, 7:29 PM
By Paul Hoynes, The Plain Dealer

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians are interested in free agent Jason Bay, a right-handed hitting left fielder who until last week was under a multiyear deal with the Mets.

The Mets made Bay a free agent on Wednesday when they purchased the remaining $21 million left on the four-year, $66 million contract he signed before the 2010 season. Bay's first three years in New York were ruined by concussions, injuries and poor play.

The Indians have been interested in Bay since his playing days with the Pirates. In fact, one winter they came close to acquiring him in a deal that would have sent Cliff Lee to Pittsburgh.

New Indians manager Terry Francona managed Bay in 2009 in Boston. It was Bay's last big year (.267, 29 doubles, 36 homers, 119 RBI) and Francona's presence could help deliver Bay, 34, to Cleveland.

The Indians hit .234 as a team against lefties this past season. Bay is a .275 (302-for-1,100) lifetime hitter against lefties. But he hit .259, .245 and .165 in three seasons with the Mets. This past season he played only 70 games and was benched for much of the second half.

The Indians are still negotiating with Kevin Youkilis, another former Red Sox. Youkilis could play first base for the Tribe. They have talked to outfielder Shane Victorino as well. The Indians tried to acquire Victorino from the Phillies during the season for one of their front-line relievers. The Phillies weren't impressed and sent Victorino to the Dodgers.

Finally: Newly acquired catcher Yan Gomes will play for Team Brazil on Thursday against Panama in a World Baseball Classic qualifying game in Panama. Gomes is the first Brazilian-born player to make the big leagues.

According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Roberto Hernandez is drawing "healthy" interest as a free agent.
The Indians declined Hernandez's $6 million option for 2013, but they're interested in bringing him back at a lesser rate. It sounds like they'll have some competition, though. Carmona posted an ugly 7.53 ERA in three starts before suffering a season-ending ankle sprain, but his ankle is fine now and he's shown enough flashes in the past that he could be a worthwhile back-end of the rotation addition.

Source: Paul Hoynes on Twitter Nov 14 - 10:02 PM

ndians' Draft Struggles Come Back To Haunt Them

By Ben Badler
November 15, 2012

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When the 2012 season began, few things seemed more likely than the Orioles missing the playoffs. Yet after 14 straight losing seasons, Baltimore won 93 games and a wild card playoff spot.

The Athletics weren't supposed to make the playoffs either, but they won 94 games and captured the American League West.

After a 68-94 season—their fifth straight without breaking .500—the Indians will hope they can deliver a similar surprise turnaround in 2013. They do have building blocks in the lineup. Between catcher Carlos Santana, center fielder Michael Brantley and a middle infield of Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis, the Indians have a group of quality players in their mid-20s who should be entering their primes, in addition to right fielder Shin-Soo Choo.

"We think we have a very good nucleus around which to build," Indians general manager Chris Antonetti said. "A lot of that is up-the-middle talent. It's catcher, second base, shortstop, center field, which is a good starting point for building a very good major league team. Now we need to complement those guys with the right players around them. Obviously Choo's been a very productive right fielder, we think Lonnie Chisenhall at third base has a chance to be a very good player, but at some of the other corner positions, we need to identify some guys and improve in those areas, because I think those are the areas where we fell short of our own expectations."

While the front office remains largely intact, the markers of future success are pointing in the wrong direction. The team ranked 29th in the majors in runs allowed in 2012, thanks largely to a disaster of a rotation. Among the seven pitchers who made the most starts for the Indians, Ubaldo Jimenez, Derek Lowe, Josh Tomlin, Jeanmar Gomez and Corey Kluber all had ERAs north of 5.00. Justin Masterson went backward and nearly joined them (4.93). Zach McAllister, who profiles best as a back-end starter, led the staff at 4.24.

There's little immediate help on the way from the farm system, which ranked 29th in baseball last year and again is among the worst in the game. The Orioles and A's might provide hope, but the Indians' inability to identify and acquire talent—particularly among amateur talent and starting pitchers—means the organization could just as well be set up for several more years of losing.

Little Production

The Indians selected righthander Jeremy Guthrie out of Stanford with their first-round pick in the 2002 draft. Guthrie should be a success story, but his career is emblematic of Cleveland's poor track record of identifying and developing pitching over the last decade. They let Guthrie go to the Orioles on a waiver claim before the 2007 season, only to see him blossom in Baltimore.

Though they misjudged Guthrie while he was in their organization, he has been by far the best pitcher the Indians have drafted since C.C. Sabathia in 1998. Chris Archer, their fifth-round pick in 2006, might eventually challenge Guthrie, but it won't be for the Indians, who included him in a trade to the Cubs after the 2008 season to get Mark DeRosa. Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp and now Cody Allen have provided quality bullpen arms from the late rounds, but the franchise's inability to draft and develop even a mid-rotation starter has been a glaring weakness.

The Indians have received little production from their drafts from 2002-2007, both from pitchers and position players. Michael Aubrey, Brad Snyder, Jeremy Sowers, Trevor Crowe and Beau Mills were all first-round busts. The later rounds delivered useful role players like Pestano, Sipp, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Ryan Garko—but no building blocks.

"To some extent, some of our drafts in the past, we didn't balance them like we have over the past four to five years," said scouting director Brad Grant, who has been running Cleveland's drafts since 2008. "Where it was maybe more college-heavy in the past at times, now it's making sure that we balance out the draft. So we're still making sure we're balancing at the beginning of the draft the risk/reward that comes with it, but at the same time opening it up and taking upside, athletic type players later in the draft."

More recent first-rounders Chisenhall and Francisco Lindor should improve the Indians' first-round track record. And the scouting and player development staffs both deserve credit for Kipnis, an outfielder at Arizona State who has quickly become a capable defender at second base with an above-average bat for the position.

Though Lindor may one day surpass him, the fact that Kipnis might be the best player the Indians have drafted and signed since Guthrie shows part of the reason why they've had so little recent success at the major league level.

"It's been an evolution in how we've done things," Antonetti said. "We've continued to try to learn both from our successes and also from our mistakes, and grow and evolve as an organization. We've made some of those adjustments, but it's unlike in the NFL or the NBA, where if you make some of those adjustments the returns are evident the following year because those guys emerge right at the highest level. In baseball it takes three, four, five, six, seven years to see the fruits of that labor. I think as we start to look forward, we're going to begin to see some of those talented guys work their way through the system and be contributing major league players for us."

In Latin America, the Indians used to be a force. They signed Victor Martinez out of Venezuela in 1996, and when Rene Gayo ran their international program, the Indians signed Jhonny Peralta, Roberto Hernandez, Willy Taveras, Rafael Perez and Edward Mujica as amateurs. Perez was the most expensive of the group at $50,000.

Since Gayo left to join the Pirates in 2004, Cleveland's Latin American pipeline has started to run dry. Other than Hernandez and Perez, the only other international player on the 2012 major league roster originally signed by the team was Gomez, a fringy righthander. The Indians may have found a future star in Dorssys Paulino, a $1.1 million signing from 2011, but he has yet to play in a full-season league. That was not the case when they paid $575,000 to a 16-year-old Dominican shortstop named Jose Ozoria in 2008, only to find out he was really a 19-year-old named Wuali Bryan. He played one season in the Dominican Summer League before he was released.

Dwindling Returns

When the Indians were a competitive team not so long ago, much of their core talent came through the trade market. They famously grabbed Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips as Expos minor leaguers in exchange for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew in 2002. Travis Hafner, Cabrera and Choo all joined the Indians in trades as well.

Cleveland's track record in the trade market the last five years has been more of a mixed bag. The biggest win has been getting Carlos Santana from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake deal in 2008. Trading DeRosa to the Cardinals in 2009 to get Chris Perez has been a success, as was getting McAllister from the Yankees in August 2011 for Austin Kearns. The 2009 trade of Victor Martinez to Boston brought Masterson, who emerged as a quality starter in 2011, then regressed last season.

But the Indians have little to show for trading away a pair of aces. The centerpiece of the 2008 Sabathia deal was supposed to be LaPorta, but so far he's been a bust. The best player from the trade has been Brantley, a solid center fielder who could become more intriguing if he can add power. The only hope to salvage value from trading Lee to the Phillies in 2009 rests on Carlos Carrasco, who missed the entire 2012 season due to Tommy John surgery.

It's true that trades for star players don't usually turn into blockbuster hauls like the Colon deal, yet when the Indians tried to trade away prospects for major league pitching, they've also gotten burned. Drew Pomeranz and Alex White haven't done anything noteworthy in the big leagues yet, but Jimenez, acquired from the Rockies in 2011 already in the midst of a decline, has been awful. Trading away Archer may also end up biting them.

"I think when you look at the portfolio of trades that we've made, we feel comfortable with the returns we've gotten," Antonetti said. "We'd always like to do better, and certainly when you look at any individual trade you can find opportunities where you may have been able to select a different player or gone in a different direction, but on balance, I think organizationally we've done a good job when we've made those decisions."

As the Orioles and A's showed, with a few good moves and some good fortune, a team can turn around in a hurry. Maybe the Indians could turn out like the 2012 Orioles. Or maybe they turn out like the 2003 Orioles—five mediocre seasons in, with a long road of losing ahead.


BUILDING THROUGH THE DRAFT

Every team talks about being committed to scouting and player development, but the Giants have demonstrated how to go out and build the core of a World Series champion through the draft, while the Indians have struggled to extract value from the draft. Using Baseball-Reference.com's Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the Giants' draft production from 2002-2008 has greatly exceeded that of the Indians, even with two fewer first-round picks (and no pick until the fourth round in 2005). The disparity is even more significant given that Guthrie provided no value to the Indians and players like Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey are likely to add value to the Giants for years to come. The only player with a chance to add value to the Indians from those drafts is Chisenhall. Players who accumulated a negative career WAR number have been counted toward the total, because it doesn't make sense to penalize a player for reaching the major leagues.

Every team talks about being committed to scouting and player development, but the Giants have demonstrated how to go out and build the core of a World Series champion through the draft, while the Indians have struggled to extract value from the draft. Using Baseball-Reference.com's Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the Giants' draft production from 2002-2008 has greatly exceeded that of the Indians, even with two fewer first-round picks (and no pick until the fourth round in 2005). The disparity is even more significant given that Guthrie provided no value to the Indians and players like Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey are likely to add value to the Giants for years to come. The only player with a chance to add value to the Indians from those drafts is Chisenhall. Players who accumulated a negative career WAR number have been counted toward the total, because it doesn't make sense to penalize a player for reaching the major leagues.

Indians
Year First-round pick (WAR) Notable later picks (WAR) Total Draft WAR
2002 Jeremy Guthrie (15.6) Ben Francisco (1.9) 17.5
2003 Michael Aubrey (0.2) and Brad Snyder (-0.2) Kevin Kouzmanoff (5.7), Ryan Garko (2.5) 10.5
2004 Jeremy Sowers (1.0) Tony Sipp (2.0) 3.6
2005 Trevor Crowe (-0.2) Jensen Lewis (1.9) 1.3
2006 None Vinnie Pestano (4.2), Josh Tomlin (1.0) 5.2
2007 Beau Mills (0.0) None 0.0
2008 Lonnie Chisenhall (1.1) None 1.1
Total first-round WAR: 17.9
Total draft WAR: 39.2
Giants
Year First-round pick (WAR) Notable later picks (WAR) Total Draft WAR
2002 Matt Cain (29.7) Fred Lewis (3.6), Clay Hensley (2.8) 37.7
2003 David Aardsma (1.7) Brian Wilson (5.4), Nate Schierholtz (3.3) 21.6
2004 No pick Jonathan Sanchez (2.3) 2.3
2005 No pick Sergio Romo (6.3) 6.4
2006 Tim Lincecum (21.5) None 22.3
2007 Madison Bumgarner (7.3) None 7.3
2008 Buster Posey (12.1) Brandon Crawford (2.8) 15.0
Total first-round WAR: 72.3
Total draft WAR: 112.6

Jeez....The more I read, the more discouraged I get.

There's no immediacy to any of the bullshit the Front Office is pumping out. They think they are headed in the right direction. Give me a freakin' break.

They have to change the players, not just on the field but up and down the organization from scouts, to development personnel, to the owner.

There are 30 teams trying to outsmart, out hustle, out perform the others.

Indians are too caught up in process rather than product.

If you are in the entertainment buisness.....entertain us.

Ken and I were posting the warning signs 8 - 10 years ago. Sad to say, it's come true. All the crying and whining didn't help I guess.