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by civ ollilavad
I have to assume the second place pick by Ocker is his April Fools joke
Sheldon Ocker: Indians ticketed for second place, and early wins necessary to pump up budget
By Sheldon Ocker
Beacon Journal sports writer
Published: April 1, 2012 - 12:11 AM | Updated: April 1, 2012 - 06:42 AM
Cleveland Indians' Travis Hafner gets ready for batting practice during a spring training baseball workout in Goodyear, Ariz., March 2. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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Sheldon Ocker: Indians ticketed for second place, and early wins necessary to pump up budget April 01,2012 10:42 AM GMT Sheldon Ocker Beacon Journal Publishing Co. Copyright � 2012 Beacon Journal Publishing Co. Inc and Black Press. All Rights Reserved. Any copying, redistribution or retransmission of any of the contents of this service without the express written consent of the Akron Beacon Journal is expressly prohibited.
The Indians’ fiscal clock is forever running. That is why the dark cloud overhead never quite passes by, why the hammer is always poised to fall on the front-office executives who spend their years trying to make chicken cordon bleu out of chicken bones.
Because of the threat of arbitration, the payroll took an $11 million hit over the winter without the addition of one new player. Re-signing Grady Sizemore plus adding Derek Lowe and Casey Kotchman piled another $13 million to the salary schedule, which will reach about $65 million, depending on when Roberto Hernandez shows up.
Despite a $16 million jump from the start of last season, the Tribe won’t spend as much as most of its rivals. The club’s total outlay for players won’t even reach the middle of the pack, but that’s the point. The Indians are a financially challenged franchise, and unless they take a giant step in the win column this year, there could be some serious backpedaling next season.
Why? The same seven players who forced the double-digit salary increase in 2012 will be eligible for arbitration again. Will they be able to force the team to swallow another $11 million increase? Maybe.
In addition, Shelley Duncan will be eligible for arbitration, and Lou Marson and Michael Brantley might be as Super Twos.
Of course, money is likely to come off the budget next year. It’s unlikely that Travis Hafner’s $13 million option will be exercised, and it’s doubtful that Sizemore will be around.
If he fails to rebound from his current injury, no way will the Indians keep him. If he returns and has a productive season, he will flee on the wings of free agency, eligible to reap the benefit of a multiyear deal at maybe $8 million or more per season. It’s unlikely that General Manager Chris Antonetti will be a bidder.
Unless Hernandez can turn it around, he, too, will be jettisoned, saving $2.5 million. Who knows whether Kevin Slowey ($2.75 million), Derek Lowe ($5 million) and Kotchman ($3 million) will be around. So it’s conceivable that more than $30 million will come off the payroll.
But all of these players would have to be replaced. By whom? Not by kids from the farm system, where the pickings (save for a few pitchers) are painfully thin. So whether they like it or not, the club’s deep thinkers will have to barge into the market place and acquire outsiders, either by trade or free-agent signings.
You see where this is going. Subtract $30 million by outgoing players and add $11 million or maybe $15 million for arbitration-eligible players plus the forced spending of, say, another $20 million just to keep the talent level from falling.
That is why a bump in attendance is imperative. Last year, the Indians drew 400,000 fans more than in 2010. That kind of increase wasn’t anticipated. A similar jump in attendance (at least) will be necessary to break through the constraints imposed by the current level of spending.
Of course, there is only one way to increase attendance — no, make that two. Fireworks after every game (even day games) might do the trick, but that’s probably not feasible. The other tactic? Win more games, enough to contend for a division title.
So the question for 2012 is whether the Tribe can take the next step toward the postseason after making an 11-game improvement to 80 wins last season. This will be the tough part and not just because the Detroit Tigers recruited Prince Fielder to solidify the middle of their lineup.
Of course, the Fielder signing certainly didn’t help the Indians, but the Tigers were the favorites to win the American League Central Division even before they locked up Fielder for nine years. Even with Fielder, there’s always a chance that important players will get hurt — they do all the time in Cleveland — or that the mix of players with the Tigers just doesn’t work.
What I’m saying is that it’s more about the Tribe than its rivals. It’s about keeping key players healthy — Sizemore already will miss at least the first couple of months — figuring out how to transform Ubaldo Jimenez into a winner again and generating enough offense to help out the starting pitchers. Justin Masterson surely doesn’t want to go through another season in which he is supported by three or fewer runs (and no runs four times) in 14 of his 29 starts from April through August.
This is basically the same club that led the Central Division for 3½ months before attrition and a lack of talent in certain areas undermined its momentum. So why should this team win more games?
With the exception of Sizemore, the Indians should begin the season in good health. Brantley’s fractured hamate bone has been removed; Shin-Soo Choo’s broken thumb and Jason Donald’s fractured hand have healed; Hafner presumably is done with strained obliques and strained feet; Josh Tomlin’s aching right elbow is strong again.
Of course, injuries will still occur, but maybe they won’t become so debilitating to a team with such little depth. There is no rule, after all, that the Tribe has to lead the majors in MRI scans.
Simple logic tells us that the club’s win total will increase by a few games if the Tribe can keep its best players on the field instead of the trainer’s room. But there is no such thing as simple logic in baseball. Players inexplicably can go from the heights to the depths and vice versa for no apparent reason.
But it’s not useful to discuss aberrant events, because it’s impossible to explain them. So let’s try to use what we know.
Masterson became a reliable and sometimes dominating starter last year, and he’s still learning his craft. He should pitch as well as he did in 2011 if not better. But will he get support from the offense?
Jimenez might be the biggest mystery man in the American League. Why doesn’t he throw 98 anymore? Why has he struggled with his command? Can he retire batters consistently if he doesn’t throw in the high 90s?
Jimenez had a fitful spring, but he says he’s happy to be away from the Colorado Rockies and to have landed in Cleveland, where he feels a comfort level with the organization and his teammates. He has the talent to prove it on the field.
So what if Tomlin doesn’t throw 98 mph fastballs? He delivers both a sinker and four-seamer plus three other pitches that move. He also has a flair for hitting his spots, no matter which pitch he throws. That makes it difficult for hitters to determine what pitch is coming and where it will cross the plate. Advantage Tomlin.
If the top three starters do their jobs, it will be easier on Lowe and Slowey, whose primary duty will be to eat innings and keep it close. They have the experience to do that. The question is whether their stuff is good enough.
The bullpen was the best part of the team last season and could be again. Closer Chris Perez, setup man Vinnie Pestano plus Joe Smith, Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp have live arms and the requisite experience. That is, with the exception of Pestano, they have all threatened to use the arbitration process. That makes them grown-ups.
Scoring runs is the biggest unknown for this team. Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera and Choo are the only hitters that manager Manny Acta can count on. Most fans expect Hafner to let them down, but in spring training, his swing looked sharper and shorter than at any time in the past four seasons. Plus this is his contract year.
Jason Kipnis is promising and unproven; Duncan will hit home runs but might not make enough contact; this might be the year Brantley blossoms. It’s all kind of guesswork. One thing that isn’t: This offense is far too left-handed.
Can the Indians catch the Tigers? Hey, the tortoise caught the hare, right? But this is no fairy tale, so it’s unlikely to happen. The Tribe probably will win 84 and finish second by eight games.
As for the necessary attendance bump, the club needs to win early and often and stay in the race for at least four months, the same formula that worked last year.