Cleveland Sports Forum

For all the guys with the rose colored glasses out there:

Didn't take long.

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- Center fielder Grady Sizemore will probably miss Opening Day on April 5 with a lower back injury.

"It's unlikely Grady will be ready for opening day," said Lonnie Soloff, Indians head athletic trainer.

Soloff made the announcement Friday, the day before the Indians first full squad workout of spring training was scheduled.

Sizemore suffered the injury two weeks ago while fielding grounders in center fielder. The injury hit the hard-luck Sizemore with a double whammy because had to stop rehabbing his surgically repaired right knee.

Soloff said Sizemore was ahead of schedule with his running and hitting while recovering from last year's knee surgery. He injured the knee in May and underwent surgery on Oct. 8.

This means Michael Brantley will probably move from left field to center field. He could hit leadoff as well.

"We were obviously aware of some of the potential risks with Grady's rehab," said GM Chris Antonetti. "We were cognizant of that as we structured our roster. We feel we have a quality group of candidates in the event Grady isn't ready."

The Indians have 13 outfielders in camp besides Sizemore.

On Oct. 31 the Indians made Sizemore a free agent by not exercising his $9 million club opltion. They re-signed him to a one-year $5 million deal with enough performance incentives that could take him $9 million.

If Brantley moves to center, Ezequiel Careera, Aaron Cunningham, Shelley Duncan, Ryan Spilborgs, Felix Pie, Fred Lewis and Chad Huffman could get a look in left field.

Perhaps his name is not Sizemore at all, it is really Gonzales, and he is actually 47 years old suffering ostioperosis. And, perhaps Jon Garland is actually Jon Minelli. Who knows what evil lurks in the mind of man!

Sad, but not unexpected. As TFIR said, the guy is just fragile!

Sizemore suffered the injury two weeks ago while fielding grounders .
He didn't even have to do anything strenuous to hurt himself this time!

Just means he will be rested for the playoffs.

“It looked good on paper”
By Anthony Castrovince/MLB.com

On Twitter: @Castrovince

For 18 games of the 2011 season — you know, after he missed a couple weeks while finishing off the rehab on his left knee and before he hurt his other knee sliding into second base — the Indians got the real Grady Sizemore.

It was an 18-game burst of brilliance. A .974 OPS and 16 extra-base hits. The Sizemore of old, the Sizemore who had been welcomed into the good graces of the 30-30 club and an annual AL All-Star locker assignment, had returned, but briefly.

And that 18-game stretch, combined with the cachet of good will and sound reputation he had accrued over a decade of hard work in front of and behind the curtain, was enough for the Indians to take a $5 million gamble that they’d be getting that Grady again for a more sustained stretch in 2012.

Maybe that gamble looks foolish now in the wake of yet another Sizemore injury — this time, a strained back while fielding groundballs in the outfield, a fate that would be comic if it weren’t so tragic — and the news that the glass-bodied Grady will miss yet another Opening Day.

But even though my last optometrist appointment confirmed 20/20 hindsight, I still can’t fault the Tribe front office for this one, given their obvious budget constraints.

To me, the Sizemore deal remains a chance that was very much worth taking.

Remember, this was — is — a $5 million guarantee, with added incentives that the Indians would be pleased to pay, because that would mean Sizemore is a regular member of their lineup.

What does $5 million buy you in the free-agent outfield market? I think you know the answer to that question, but let’s explore it anyway.

The only true comparable from a year ago was when the Rays paid a 37-year-old Johnny Damon $5.25 million to be their left fielder (he eventually became their DH, after Manny Ramirez flaked out) and got 1.5 wins above replacement, as calculated by Fangraphs.com. But just to further assist the discussion, Coco Crisp was in the second year of a two-year, $10.75 million contract with the A’s (making $5.75 million) and delivered a 2.2 WAR.

WAR is not a perfect estimation of a player’s contributions, by any means, but it gives us a decent estimation of what $5 million can buy you in this particular department. A player of marginal impact.

Now, obviously, Sizemore at his healthiest was a player of substantial impact. He had a 5.8 WAR in 2005, 8.0 in ’06, 6.2 in ’07, and 7.4 in ’08. And even when he played virtually the entire ’09 season with elbow and abdominal issues and was shut down in early September, he contributed a 2.0 WAR that is comparable to what the Rays and A’s got from Damon and Crisp, respectively, last year.

I know, I know. That version of Sizemore is gone, and likely for good. But as that ’09 season demonstrated, if you could just get the guy on the field, the potential for $5 million worth of assistance was there.

And if he’s actually in a position where he’s feeling healthy, well, who knows? That taunting, teasing 18-game stretch from last season had the Indians holding out hope for much more. And rightfully so.

The decision to re-sign Sizemore makes even more sense when you look at the other, decidedly unappealing options that existed on the free-agent and trade markets. For one, none other than Crisp himself was considered the top center fielder on the market (he got two years, $14 million). The Tribe’s best trade options, as far as I could tell, were Andres Torres and Angel Pagan, and they ended up getting swapped for each other. No telling if the Indians had the right piece to land either guy, and there’s certainly no telling what either will contribute after decidedly down years with the Giants and Mets and with no discernible track record beforehand.

The best outfield options, regardless of particular position within the outfield, were Michael Cuddyer, who got three years and $31.5 million from the Rockies, and Josh Willingham, who got three years and $21 million from the Twins.

Cuddyer was never a realistic possibility, at that price, whether the Indians signed Sizemore or not. But the Sizemore signing actually didn’t preclude them from being finalists for Willingham. They were in on him until the bitter end. Perhaps if they didn’t sign Grady, they could have upped their Willingham offer, but now you’re talking about a three-year contract in excess of $21 million for a player who, in a career year last year, contributed two wins above replacement. Not what I’d consider a sound investment.

Maybe the Indians could have gotten lucky with some other investment, a la the Royals last year with their $2.5 million deal with Jeff Francouer or the Cardinals with their $8 million deal with Lance Berkman. But that’s the kind of luck the Indians (an organization that, quite famously, does not major in luck) were/are counting on with Sizemore.

Maybe the Tribe could have used the Sizemore savings in other areas, such as increasing their offer to first baseman Carlos Pena. They reportedly offered Pena $8 million to come to Cleveland, and he opted instead to sign with the Rays for $7.25 million. Maybe if they threw a couple more million on the pile, they could have reeled him in. But then you have to ask yourself if Carlos Pena is worth eight figures.

The long-winded point here is that there are any number of opportunities the Indians could have explored beyond Sizemore, but none of them strike me as particularly appealing. And none of them featured the kind of upside the Grady deal presented (and perhaps, depending on the severity of this back situation, still presents).

No, if you want to criticize the Indians at this point, criticize the system, not the signing.

This club simply did not infuse enough quality outfield talent into its system through the Draft and trades to come to the forefront in times like these. Remember, this is the club that took Trevor Crowe when Jacoby Ellsbury was still on the board and Beau Mills one pick ahead of Jason Heyward. This is the club that, to date, has not reaped any meaningful returns from Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley — the two top acquisitions in the CC Sabathia trade. (And yes, that 20/20 hindsight is kicking in again.)

And so what the Indians are left with now is hope, however feint, that Sizemore’s back troubles subside quickly enough for him to still provide meaningful at-bats in the 2012 season. And in the meantime, they have to hope that the Shelley Duncans and Aaron Cunnighams and Felix Pies and Ryan Spilborghs of the world — all guys who were cast aside by other organizations and given new life with the Tribe — can hold serve until he returns.

This Sizemore injury is damaging, no doubt, though not in the way further malfunctioning of the Ubaldo Jimenez project would be. Sizemore’s contract was, from the beginning, a $5 million gamble in which the risk-reward factor was clear and present. Hey, at least this time, it didn’t involve a knee.

Maybe Grady gets healthy before long. Maybe he extrapolates that 18-game stretch from 2011 into a more meaningful timeframe.

For this team, in this market, on this budget, with this farm system, that hope is all the Indians have.

And that’s all they’ve had all along.

~AC

Castrovince gets it !

This club simply did not infuse enough quality outfield talent into its system through the Draft and trades to come to the forefront in times like these. Remember, this is the club that took Trevor Crowe when Jacoby Ellsbury was still on the board, and Beau Mills one pick ahead of Jason Heyward. This is the club that, to date, has not reaped any meaningful returns from Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley -- the two top acquisitions in the CC Sabathia trade. (And yes, that 20/20 hindsight is kicking in again.)

WoW! I did not know that!

JoeZ

A couple of geezers like me and you could field ground balls in the outfield without injuring our backs.

I thought the Sizemore signing was stupid. But I didn't count on him for much. And now we get to balance the lineup with a RH bat. Is Cunningham capable of playing CF? Brantley doesn't have the arm for CF and his offensive is so anemic I have been opening that Cunningham plays for him in left. OF is way way too thin in this organization and we don't even draft OF's in the amateur draft.

Without Sizemore hitting his incentives and the $ saved not paying Fausto until his return should be around $4 or $5 million? Am I wrong on this? Will we use it to pursue someone else?

Castrovince "gets" the part about how it's tough to get a great outfielder for $7 million. But I'm not sure he "gets" the part about the Colon deal being a once-in-career kind of thing. It's ok to be disappointed about LaPorta and Brantley--well, at least about LaPorta--but seriously, how much were we going to get out of 10 weeks of CC, and what good would it have done?

Will we use it to pursue someone else?

It's too late to sign anyone for this season. I suppose we could make a trade for a player with a big salary but that seems highly unlikely. Winter of 2012-13 maybe the new owner will try to sign an OF without a lengthy history of injuries.

I certainly hope the rumors of this team being for sale are true.

Posted: Sat, Feb. 25, 2012, 3:00 AM | 31 comments |


Phillies would do well to avoid Tribe’s trials

Sam Donnellon, Daily News Sports Columnist
Philadelphia Daily News
Email Sam Donnellon, follow Sam Donnellon on Twitter
CLEARWATER, Fla. - The year was 2000. The Phillies and the Cleveland Indians were within minutes of completing a deal that would send ace Curt Schilling to the Indians for a package of players, several of whom would blossom in the years to come.

"A deal," said John Hart, then Cleveland's general manager, "that would have changed the dynamic of both clubs."

The Indians were trying to maintain a level of excellence that began in 1995. Fueled by great drafts, maintained by locking up their talented core group with long-term deals, the Indians acquired veteran starters and frugally built and rebuilt great bullpens as they competed with bigger spending teams to reach the postseason. From 1995 through 1999, they were a playoff team, the apex a 1997 World Series in which they lost to the Florida Marlins in the 11th inning of the seventh game.

But veteran starters such as Orel Hershiser and Dennis Martinez were now gone, and the structure Hart and his front office had so deftly created was cracking as the contracts of core players expired and they sought more lucrative deals. Schilling, though, could prolong it. Schilling would give him an ace.

"Minutes" before the deal was to be consummated, though, Schilling's agent informed then-Phillies general manager Ed Wade that his client had reduced the teams he would be willing to be traded to from six to five. Cleveland was out.

"I banged hard on that one," Hart said. "That was a heartbreaker."

The Indians fell one game short of the playoffs that year. They reached them in 2001, but lost to Seattle in the ALDS. Much of their core had departed for greener pastures, and Hart was scrambling to replace them. And when the last pieces left, the irony was inescapable:

Jim Thome signed with the up-and-coming Phillies in December 2002.

"When you're in the middle of it, you don't look at the darkening skies and say, 'Woe is me,' " said Hart, now an analyst with MLB Network. "You try to stay creative. I mean, we worked so hard to try and convince our guys to stay in Cleveland and keep the dynasty going. But it's just not the way of the world. When you have so many star players we had . . . They're just not going to stay in the fold. There's just too much money out there.

"And you can't blame them."

Once, the Phillies brass looked at Hart's model for guidance. Locking up Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, extending Ryan Howard with 2 years still left on his original deal, all trace to that philosophy. Their general manager, Ruben Amaro Jr., was even a bench player for Cleveland in that era.

But there has been a sea change in that regard, and for several palpable reasons. With a sparkly fan-friendly stadium packed every night and advertising revenue at an all-time high, the Phillies have been able - and willing! - to reinvest in the talent on the field, even compete with and beat the big-spending clubs to acquire established talent. And while there has been a drain of minor league talent and high draft picks in doing so, their system continues to produce contributors to the major league club, including J.A. Happ, Vance Worley, Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes.

You might notice all are pitchers.

"It's funny," Amaro said the other day as he watched pitchers stretch at Bright House Field. "When I first started working in the front office and thinking about building clubs, I was a position player, so, of course, I thought more bats . . . But I've come to realize, after watching and getting beat up by Atlanta all those years, that, really, if you want to keep your club in contention year in and year out, you've got to have the arms.

"If you can go out there and battle with solid pitching, you have a chance to win every single night. If you do not have pitching, then it becomes a challenge. It becomes a much bigger obstacle. Much bigger than maybe not having as much power one year. Or maybe not having as much speed. If you can pitch it, if you can catch it - it sounds cliché, but you have a chance to win every single night."

And if you have a glut of it, you also have a chance to acquire talent - as long as payroll constraints do not impair you. Hart had plenty of chips in Cleveland to keep his dynasty running. But in dealing the likes of Brian Giles, Richie Sexson and even Cliff Lee, the Indians were forced by a new ownership group to seek young, cheaper - and riskier - talent in return.

Some trades worked out. Some did not. But instead of maintaining, the Indians have been in a position twice this decade of rebuilding. After 2001, Hart moved on to Texas and has been with MLB Network for the last two seasons.

"I'm not real proud of all the deals I made with those young players," said Hart, who continues to serve in an advisory capacity with the Rangers. "And if they had been home-runs deals, slam dunkers, it might have worked out better for us."

The Phillies no longer have Pat Burrell, Jayson Werth and Brad Lidge from the group that won in 2008. But they've added Roy Halladay and Lee and, lest we forget, Happ was used to acquire Roy Oswalt, and they packaged one of their few up-and-coming position player prospects, Jonathan Singleton, in the deal to acquire Hunter Pence. They have made the postseason five straight seasons and are favored to make it six.

Are the skies darkening? Or will their coffers prolong their success well into this new decade?

"We're at a stage right now where, payrollwise, we have an advantage over other clubs," Amaro said. "So that even if guys start to leave us, we can reasonably replace them with guys who can have close to the same level of talent. Not that we can go out and outspend everybody. But at the level that we're at right now . . . if we can stay kind of at that level, or maybe slightly below or maybe slightly above, that gives us an advantage over 20, 25 clubs. So if I'm doing my job properly and we're making the right decisions, then we should put ourselves in the position to be contending every year."

Send email to donnels@phillynews.com.

For recent columns, go to www.philly.com/SamDonnellon.



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Shocking ! A player did not want to play in Cleveland.