Guardians Perspective

Friday Thoughts - Waiver Wire Night Hangover

Friday, September 1, 2023

1. ML baseball is likely to overhaul the irrevocable waiver wire process over the winter (more on this is another post). Not that I think it needs to be overhauled but there will be enough crying and whining that it is currently unfair to the richer/more powerful owners/teams that they won't let it stand as is. Maybe they limit the number of waiver wire pickups in a week to 2 on any 7 day period. I don't know but I am sure it will change. No rule that favors weaker, poorer teams like the Guardians will ever be allowed to stand now that it has been identified.

2. Getting Gioloto, Lopez and Moore isn't going to cure all that ails the Guardians. But it may keep their heads above water long enough to help.

Some will say, as I did, that they should have brought in Hunter Renfroe. This would have likely cost us Ramon Laureano on a DFA, which I would have been OK with. It might have also cost us Juan Gonzalez on a DFA, something I would not have been comfortable with.

But we didn't get any offensive help when some might have been available. If the FO decision not to bring in Renfroe or Randall Grichuk is a sign that they think what they have currently is better.

Looking at the current 26 I don't think we have enough. Maybe if you include the minors. Which brings me to what could change. Bringing up Rocchio won't give us a dramatic upgrade. Bringing up Noel or Lavastida or Schneeman or Pries or Valera won't give us that upgrade. There are only 2 guys in the farm system who can help us catch that lightning in a bottle right now: Jonathon Rodriguez and Chase DeLauter. If DeLauter had been healthy all year and was raking in Akron right now after raking in LC for the first half of the season I might buy into rostering him 2 years early. But not now. Which brings me back to Rodriguez. Sticking with Laureano is a fool's play. You have to bring up Rodriguez and DFA Laureano. It probably won't work but if it does, if the league takes 3-4 weeks to catch on to Rodriguez's weaknesses, we might get enough of a spark to the offense to separate us from the teams we are playing in September.

If Will Brennan or Myles Straw lose a little playing time to get Rodriguez some ABs, so what. We need instant offense and he is the only guy I can think of who has a chance to, along with Calhoun, give us that lightning.

With our offense, even if Josh Naylor comes back as strong as he was when he left (his rehab is not really showing that so far) we still need one more hitter. That hitter is Rodriguez and if the cost of a lifetime fringe player like Laureano to DFA, so be it.

We are 5 games back. The time is not for the Laureanos of the world. We need a hero and my hope is that, like Gonzalez last year, Rodriguez is that guy this year. Otherwise, we are making the same mistakes we did for most of this year.

[ I agree, take the shot! ]

C'mon Guardians, be bold. We need SUCCESSFUL bold right now. Miracles can be made of that. That plus Bieber and McKenzie coming back in Cy Young caliber form by mid September


Posted by Dennis at 3:38 PM

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As much as I post his content (X) I must say that article is terrible ! Makes no sense. They are not playing for next year !

Martinez has been moving up and down between Akron and Columbus in response to Tena's comings and goings, so that move is reversible

When Giolito is activated one move is necesssary. A second for Naylor. Tena is still likely to be one of those guys and I was stuck thinking of a second, but I think you've got on the answer in Oscar. He has not done anything on his return to warrant playing ahead of Fry or Calhoun, which really is disappointing for a budding career. But a one year wonder is not unique.

Guardians Perspective

Saturday Thoughts: Wah, wah, wah; We need a hero (but not Josh Naylor or Jose Ramirez); Minor League Stats in Late Auguest/September

Saturday, September 2, 2023

Wah, Wah, Wah, Wah - Stop Whining

I am a baseball prospect geek guy but I am also a volleyball guy. First as a player then, as the saying goes, those that can, do and those that can't teach...which is why I became a coach.

In my years of coaching I had the good fortune to talk to a number of players from the US Men's National team. One anecdote I remember really sticks with me, even to this day. The US Men's volleyball team was not always one of the best in the world. There was a time when they were not that good. In a particular match against one of the best teams in the world the US was getting killed as everyone knew they would. We used to call it lose two and barbeque. This match was played in a venue that was particularly hot that evening and the US players were diving all over to try to dig up spikes by their opponent. Whenever they dove it left a wet spot that had to then be mopped up, slowing down the match and its inevitable outcome. One of their opponents told the US men to stop diving because their sweat was slowing up the match. Basically, the guy told the US players they were so bad they hadn't earned the right to sweat!

The reason I am relating this story is because what I read after the Guardians pickup of Gioloto, Lopez and Moore can be summarized in the following sentence:

Why are the Guardians, who have no chance to win the World Series, picking up these players and depriving the teams who COULD win the Series and these players of that chance?

Even though there were many articles/blog/twitter posts of this comical nature that came from all the entitled east coast and west coast teams and/or their fans, the one thing that really irritated me the most was reading the Cincinnati Enquirer article (subscriptioon required) bemoaning that the Reds could have picked up these players instead of the Guardians and how unfair it was for the Guardians to hog them. The ironic thing was that people would have said the same thing about the Reds that the Cincinnati newspaper article was saying about the Guardians if the Reds had made these pickups, especially in addition to the two they DID make. The cherry on the icing on the cake of this article insinuated that the Reds should use this presumed slight as fuel when the Reds played the Guardians later this season. Priceless. Pot to Kettle: You are black.

The point here is that most rules are set up to favor the richer teams. This waiver priority list is one of the few designed to favor the weaker teams. While I am sure there will be talk this winter of amending the waiver rule, it should remain how it is.

There ARE rules that need to be changed in baseball with the Rule 5 rules for international free agents who are signed under the age of 18 to give them an extra year of development before they are subject to this Rule 5 being the most apparent to me. It is ridiculous to put these 16 year old kids in the same group as 18 year old US HS kids who are playing on showcase circuits and getting better coaching and access to better facilities before they go pro. The Guardians are facing issues of rostering guys too soon with Jhonkensy Noel and Juan Brito, to name a couple.

But the irrevocable waiver rule is NOT a rule that needs to be changed.

And the teams, fans, media, talking heads who are bemoaning how it is unfair that teams like the Guardians get to sweat can just continue to whine the whine of the entitled. Wah, wah, wah.

We Need a Hero

I am going to combine the thoughts from two previous posts.

1)

Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez are MUCH less effective when they try to be heroes. This team is built on keeping the line moving. So I have 'designed' (LOL) a t-shirt that all the team should wear when they are warming up




(2)

Aside from the above mentality the team should have, we need a guy who could provide a significant unexpected positive (READ: power) contribution. Last year it was Juan Gonzalez. Previously it was Fanrmil Reyes and before that it was expected from Bobby Bradley, but never happened.

Now I suggest we give a shot to Jonathon Rodriguez. I suggest sending Ramon Laureano to the minors, DFAing Michael Kelly and bringing up Rodriguez. Do I think the guy might fall on his face? Absolutely. But we are trying stuff to break this team out of its slump and Rodriguez, like Gonalez last year, might just provide that energy. I thnk it is worth a shot.

Other than that, just keep the line moving.

Late Season Minor League Stats

Watching a lot of minor league games I have seen an influx of guys being promoted from lower levels of minors for the laste month or so. It coincides with rookie leagues ending and guys getting promoted to the majors after teams fall out of playoff contention. That being said, late season stats (put up by guys who have spent the entire year at THAT level) that show an increase in performance should be taken with a grain of thought. As opposed to guys moving up from low levels of the minors to play stronger competition who struggle should be expected and the ones who thrive after a late season promotion should be considered as better prospects, IMO, everything else being equal.

So, when I look at minor league stats I am starting to consider the monthly stats as more important than I used to. I used to think that guys were just figuring it out but lately I am starting to think that it is more likely that the competition level in their league has been diluted at every level in the minor leagues by these promotions and these late season bumps in performance are not representative of anything useful in terms of predictors of future performance or prospect status.

Just something to consider.

Posted by Dennis at 11:31 AM

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Guardians ace Shane Bieber is making progress in his rehab from right elbow inflammation, as MLB.com relays that the right-hander has advanced to throwing all of his pitches during bullpen sessions. As Terry Francona told reporters, if Bieber’s next bullpen goes well, he’ll progress to facing live hitters. The next logical progression after that would be a rehab assignment as Bieber builds back up to a starter’s workload. Bieber will first be eligible to be activated from the 60-day injured list on September 10, but it seems all but assured that Bieber will need longer than the minimum 60 days before returning at this point. That said, the 28-year-old seems to be on pace to return before the end of the season barring any setbacks. Prior to his injury, 2023 was shaping up to be a down season for Bieber, who posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.11 FIP across 19 starts.

sorry fellow it was Oscar Gonzalez, not Juan, in Cleveland last year.
JRod is a favorite of mine, but he like Oscar strikeouts out too much, He and Noel and Valera and Manzardo will be interesting to follow next March.

and speaking of Oscar, he flopped as badly in his second go in Cleveland as in his first. Reports noted back in spring training that he was not getting hard hits and the problem continued through to his final at bat of the season the squib grounder that led to the game tying hit by Kwan on Saturday. They kept Gonzalez in Columbus until he showed sustained power,but it immediately disappeared when confronted by majorleague pitching
A nice guy, unfortunate it's not working out for him.

Apparently Eric Haase was not picked up by another team; he's now listed on the Columbus roster

Who is the biggest home run threat on the Guardians this year?

Calhoun a homer every 32 at bats
Arias a homer every 31 at bats
Josh a homer every 26 at bats
Jose a homer every 25 at bats
and the winner:
Bo a homer every 24 at bats

So nice we seem to have found 2 keepers in Arias and Bo for next season.

Unrelated - can we sign Cookie Carrasco to a 1 day deal next season so he can retire an Indian/Guardian?

How about 1 day in September? And another 1 day for Kluber? Option Allen to the minors with 2 games to go in the season. Use Cookie in game 161, Kluber in 162. DFA Michael Kelly since he won't make the off season roster in any case I assume. Or could do the same with Cam Gallagher.

Baseball america Best Tools for AL major leaguers has a bunch of our guys

Best Pickoff Move: #2 Bibee
Best Bunter: #1 Giminez
Best Hit and Run Man: #1 Kwan #2 Giminez
Best Strikeout Zone Judgment: #2 Ramirez
Best Defensive 2B: #2 Giminez
Best Defensive 3B: #2 Ramirez
neither Kwan nor Straw makes top 3 defensive OF and our Hall of Fame manager does not make top 3 AL managers

Best Strikeout Zone Judgment: #2 Ramirez This must be based on past years. He has swung at more bad pitches than anyone other than Gonzalez and Arias. That has nothing to do with no protection. He is swinging at terrible pitches.

5 man rotation is sufficient. Any reason to start Giolito just because they signed him for a month? Mark Wiley can try to help him get his pitches located where he wants them without perhaps tipping off the batter and perhaps give him some bullpen work, but Q and the 4 rookies are a more than satisfactory contingent. The only reason t start 6 is to limit innings for the kids.

the team's web page shows him starting on Saturday rather than Curry. What advantage does that serve?