TANNER BIBEE
Guardians Perspective
Thursday Thoughts: Waiver Claims and DFAs; PPI, ROY and Tanner Bibee; Bell and His Player Option; September 1st Callups;
Thursday, August 31, 2023
WAIVER CLAIMS AND DFAs TODAY
I was begging for the Guardians to pounce on LAA's sell-off and they did, somewhat, so I have to like the waiver claims today. These were low-cost additions who stand a chance to help us down the stretch. Adding Gioloto (replacing Syndergaard), Lopez and Moore (over Herrin) are good additions. They should help our pitching staff and save our young arms. Will that be enough to propel us to the playoffs? I don't know if they will but it certainly points us in the right direction. However, we did not address the offense at all and any team that has Kole Calhoun batting 3rd and Ramon Laureano hitting 4th is in trouble, offensively. Fortunately Calhoun came to us on fire and has offered some protection for Ramirez. When Naylor comes back it should help, too. I still would have rather have Renfro or Grichuk, although we might still have a chance for Grichuk now that he has cleared waivers if he is released.
We needed two roster spots right now and I would have DFA'd Gallagher and Kelly and kept Battenfield and Haase. Battenfield at least was ML rotation depth. Kelly wasn't even bullpen depth at CBus, truth be told. Regarding Hasse vs Gallagher, who would you rather have to PH or to bat in late innings or extra innings? So, I don't know why we did what we did as these weren't post-season decisions, IMO. I guess if Beiber comes back Gallagher is his personal catcher this season so there is that. I do know if Battenfield and Haase go unclaimed they could stay with Cleveland and would be eligible for the post-season if added back to the 40 man. I think Haase can choose to be a FA after the season, having been DFA'd twice but Battenfield would still be in our system this winter if he goes unclaimed.
SEPTEMBER 1st CALLUPS: 28-MAN ROSTER PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW
Starting Pitchers (5)
Allen
Bibee
Giolito
Williams
Quantrill
[ NOTE: If Williams goes on the IL
, Curry slides back into the rotation and Karinchak stays up in the ML bullpen, although Morris is more of a fit as a long man. ]
Bullpen (9)
Curry
Clase
De Los Santos
Hentges (L)
Lopez
Moore (L)
Morgan
Sandlin
Stephan
Sent To Columbus
Morris
Gaddis
Karinchak
[ NOTE: I absolutely hate this for Karinchak and I think it sends him the wrong message but, procedurally, it makes the most sense, seeing he has already used up his option this year and sending anyone else down burns a minor league option for them for a whole season for only one month. Karinchak, Gaddis and Morris are still eligible for post-season. ]
Catcher (3)
Fry
Gallagher
Naylor
[ NOTE: I would have kept Haase and dumped Gallagher. The latter has no use other than being someone's (Beiber?) caddy. Can't go with Fry and Naylor as your only catchers, unfortunately, although I would like to. Plus, even if we DFA Gallagher, we can't add another pitcher. It would have to be a position player like Rocchio or, less likely, Jonathon Rodriguez which would cause us to have to send down Gonzalez or DFA Laureano. ]
Infielders (5)
Naylor
Gimenez
Arias
Ramirez
Freeman
[ NOTE: Four starters and a backup. All you need here. ]
Outfielders (6)
Kwan
Straw
Calhoun
Brennan
Laureano
Gonzalez
[ NOTE: We don't need all these outfielders but we have them. You could send Gonzalez down and bring up Rocchio again but I just don't see it happening. Again, Gonzalez is the only one of this group to have burned a minor league option this year and so it wouldn't impact his long term future in Cleveland if we sent him down. If fwe would have gotten Renfroe or if we sign Grichuk, Gonzalez is the logical one to go down. ]
PROSPECT PROMOTION INCENTIVE< ROY AND TANNER BIBEE
Looking at Tanner Bibee's record going into his start last night it occured to me that his production might put him in ROY comversations. That being said, I remembered that the new CBA has provisions that incentivized teams that brought their rookies up early. Essentially, the way the original rule read on what constituted a full season, if a team had a player up for 172 days (187 is the number of days in the regular season) that player was considered to have played a full season which moved them one year closer to free agency and arbitration than if a team (wink, wink) brought the player up at the beginning of May (or later, to avoid super 2 considerations that would give the player one more year of arbitration and one less year for the team to pay him a cheap salary. cough! Bo Naylor. cough!).
So, in the new CBA, they created a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI). If a player is active for more than 171 days during the regular season AND wins the ROY in his league the team will get an extra draft choice the next year. If he finishes 2nd or 3rd in ROY voting or in the top 3 of MVP or Cy Young voting than the same thing applies. Besides having been on the active roster for 172 or more days (this year, April 15th or earlier) the player would also have to have been listed in the pre-season top 100 prospects in the game by two of the three (BA, ESPN, MLB Pipeline) rating services.
While Gavin Williams and Logan Allen have been solid, it is Tanner Bibee that has stood out, at leaset record-wise.
Unfortunately, although Bibee made the cut in all 3 rating services top 100s, he was brought up to the active roster on April 26th, meaning he does not qualify for the PPI.
There is one more point here, though. The rule states that if a player wins the ROY voting he is guaranteed to get one full year of service time, no matter when he was brought up. So if Bibee DOES win ROY honors he will get a full year of service time and the Guardians will get nothing except a headache knowing if they had brought him up two weeks earlier they would have gotten an extra draft pick.
I will continue to roof for Bibee to have a great rookie season and if he wins ROY I will be happy for him and the Guardians' organization that developed him. But if he just falls short, I won't be as disappointed as I would have been in previous years.
BELL AND HIS PLAYER OPTION
Disgruntled fans have been talking about how Josh Bell started to really hit after he was traded to Miami. What is lost in that angst are the details of that trade and the impact on the organization going forward.
To make this deal happen, Cleveland took on Jean Segura and the rest of his contract in 2023 plus his contract in 2024 plus his buyout in 2025. Miami took on the remainder of Bell's contract in 2023 and his salary in 2024 IF Bell exercised his player option for 2024. When he was hitting in the low .230s with marginal power this seemed like a lock as no way was he going to do better than $16.5 million in 2024 with those stats. So, the Guardians stood to save $8.36 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
However, in Miami Bell has hit for an OPS of .881 putting him 36% above average for a major league hitter.
If Bell continues to hit well for the rest of the season it is within the realm of possibility that he might gamble that he would be able to make more than $16.5 million next year in free agency.
The reason for mentioning this is that I did not see any stipulation for this deal for this eventuality. If the Guardians did not write something into the deal language that protected them from this eventuality, e.g., that the Marlins would pick up half of Segura's salary in 2024 and half of his buyout in 2025, then the Guardians are stupidly short-sighted. They may end up, instead of saving $8+ million, paying $8+ million for the right to have enigmatic prospect Khalil Watson while the Marlins get to have Bell's great production for the last part of the season AND save $8 million while also exorcising the pain in the butt Watson from their system.
Someone needs to ask Antonetti what happens in this deal if Bell decides to not pick up his player option. Are the Guardians just screwed or what? If he says yes, the next question should be: What in the f*** were you thinking?
Posted by Dennis at 3:50 PM
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