Cleveland Sports Forum

Jaison Chourio: Guardians 2024 Minor League Player Of The Year

September 23, 2024

[ Don't Remember Reading This One ]

When it comes to prospects analysis, Baseball America has been the market leader for years.

Their opinion is respected by fans, media, and even members of MLB teams.

They published, on Monday, the Minor League Player of the Year for every one of the 30 organizations in baseball.

Jaison Chourio was chosen by them as the best Cleveland Guardians player of the season.

The younger brother of Milwaukee Brewers’ breakout star Jackson Chourio, Jaison is still a long way from the major leagues, but he sure made strides this season and positioned himself in the talent-rich Guardians system.

A few days ago, Chourio was also named the MVP of the Carolina League, where he played most of the year with the Lynchburg Hillcats of Single-A.

The 19-year-old outfielder didn’t show too much in terms of game power, but he excelled at just about every other facet of his game.

He slashed .269/.414/.398 in 98 games with the Hillcats, slugging 24 doubles and five home runs while stealing an incredible 44 bases.

Chourio’s lightning-quick feet get most of the attention, but it’s his ability to control the strike zone the one element that sets him apart from the rest of the pack.

He worked 86 walks and struck out just 69 times in the season, making it clear that ball-strike recognition is definitely a strength.

He fractured his wrist in late August, so his season ended abruptly, but he had already shown the best of his potential.

His 144 wRC+ indicates he excelled and aced the level, and should be ready to be tested in High-A in 2025.

Much like his brother, Chourio has what it takes to be a special ballplayer if the Guardians are patient.

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Another commenter:

"Aleman, 24, has a big frame and 32 strikeouts in 21.1 innings in Triple-A this year. They come with a 2.11 ERA.
Aaron Davenport boasts a rock-solid 2.88 ERA in 137.1 frames in Double-A Akron, while Ryan Webb has a 2.67 mark in six Triple-A starts.
Both are promising arms, as is Doug Nikhazy."

2024 stats for those 3 starters

Webb AA and AAA totals 141 IP 126 H 7 HR 52 BB 151 K 2.93 ERA 1.259 WHIP
Nikhazy AA&AAA totals 124 IP 82 H 12 HR 53 BB 124 K 2.98 ERA 1.092 [had a great starter; time on the IL; not so sharp on his return but then turned it on again]
Davenport all year in AA 142 IP 116 H 11 HR 52 BB 135 K 2.85 ERA 1.18 WHIP

Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
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21m

Cleveland #Guardians outrighted RHP James Karinchak to Triple-A Columbus after removing him from the 60-Day IL. Karinchak refused his assignment and is now a free agent.

October 10, 2024 3B Gabriel Rodriguez assigned to Aguilas del Zulia.

Eagles take flight after beating Braves 5-2

Caracas,October 16, 2024 VTV

The Águilas del Zulia took flight at home after beating Bravos de Margarita in a close game 5-2, a game in which they needed the first three innings to chart the path to victory. The running movement began in the first inning itself, when Eduardo Torrealba hit a sacrifice fly to score his first run.

With a three-run rally in the second inning, the Raptors extended their lead to 4-0 at that point in the game. Gabriel Rodriguez opened with an RBI double, while Alexander Palma hit a single that brought two more runs to the plate. In the third inning, Gabriel Martinez brought the fifth and final run for the Zulians, with a hit to center field.

Meanwhile, the islanders tried to react in the sixth and seventh innings. Carlos Pérez showed off his offensive power to hit the ball home and open the scoring for Bravos. For his part, Moisés Gómez repeated the dose of Carlos Pérez to leave final figures in the match.

With this victory, the Eagles dealt the island team their second loss in a row. This Wednesday, the raptors will face the Navegantes del Magallanes and the event is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. at the Luis Aparicio stadium.

• LVBP
  YEAR JJ VB AC H 2B 3B HR CI TB BB K BR SAC SF BIRD PEB SLG PAHO
  2024 4 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 .091 .231 .182 .413

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Which Gabriel Rodriguez? The guy in Akron whose prospect status is inthe past? Of the teenager who is one of the new hotshots in the system?

If you've got the time to wait, Baseball America suggests that the Guardians may have a raft of top hitters reaching the majors around the end of the decade. They present their annual ranking of the statistically best hitters at each age from 16 to 25. Cleveland scores very well with the teen agers. To start with here is the philosophy and procedure.

baseball America measured performance throughout the 2024 season based on underlying metrics via the Hawkeye data gathered across the minor leagues. The RoboScout model incorporates some of this Statcast data to assess the minor league performance of hitters and pitchers and evaluate their future major league performance. This article lists some of the hitters who excelled in these metrics in 2024.

Our Methodology
In order to calculate an all-encompassing number across a variety of metrics, we used weighted on-base average (wOBA) as a baseline and built our “Hit+” score weighted by each metric’s correlation to wOBA. This number measures production versus the average in a similar fashion to weighted Runs Created (wRC+), moving up and down from the average score of 100. The main inputs to this metric were contact rate, 90th percentile exit velocity, chase rate, barrel rate and expected weighted-on-base-average-on-contact (xwOBAcon).

All metrics were also independently assessed against pitch types–fastballs, offspeed pitches and breaking pitches–and regressed to the average to account for sample size variance. For example, because a hitter with a contact rate of 90% after 5,000 swings is more likely to have a future contact rate of 90% than a hitter who has a contact rate of 90% after only three swings, and because the impact of the regression will more significantly influence the hitter with the smaller sample size, a hitter with a very low number of plate appearances is more likely to have a HIT+ score nearer 100, as his future performance would be significantly regressed toward the mean.

A hitter’s performance against the different pitch types was then rebalanced so that the average for each metric and pitch type was centered on 100 with a standard deviation of 10. Although a hitter almost certainly would not face an equal amount of breaking pitches, offspeed pitches or fastballs in the future, for the purposes of assessing a relative true talent, they were all weighted the same. This was deemed acceptable for the purposes of this exercise, as a hitter would theoretically be gameplanned to face the pitches against which he would be most vulnerable. This would naturally boost the hitters for whom no obvious exploitable weakness was present.

One other important note: For this exercise, the hitter’s performance in a metric is compared to the overall minor league average and not to the minor league average at the level where the hitter played.

Mainly this is because the discrete performance at each level was unavailable. What this means is that a hitter who had an overall 75% contact rate on breaking balls acquired over 100 swings in Double-A and 400 swings in Triple-A would have the same “Contact” score against breaking balls as a hitter with a contact rate of 75% acquired over 500 swings in Low-A.

This is important to note as, for example, although Leodalis De Vries (Padres) has the 10th-highest Hit+ score for a 17-year-old, much of his performance resulted after facing more advanced Low-A pitching, as opposed to some of the other hitters ranked who only faced Dominican Summer League pitching.

Please note the Hit+ scores do not reflect a player’s defensive or running ability.

Below are the top 10 for each age, minimum 100 plate appearances on the season.

Our youngsters dominate the age 16 cohort

Age 16 (min 100 PAs):
Filter by...
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Name POS org Contact% xwOBAcon Barrel% Chase% HIT+
Juneiker Caceres OF CLE 120 96 106 100 117
Stiven Martinez OF BAL 94 112 120 98 107
Johan Rodriguez IF CLE 106 91 98 105 102
Saul Gomez IF BAL 103 103 93 95 99
Moises Bolivar SS LAD 103 91 100 92 98
Richard Matic 3B NYY 104 86 87 113 98
Yaxson Lucena OF STL 107 92 87 113 98
Evan Estevez OF SFG 89 105 100 107 96
Ashly Andujar SS COL 113 92 80 86 95
Estiven Morillo OF CLE 100 98 86 111

one 17 year old

Age 17 (min 100 PAs):
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name pos org Contact% xwOBAcon Barrel% Chase% HIT+
Jesus Made SS MIL 117 113 109 117 125
Justin Gonzales OF BOS 115 100 116 99 119
Eduardo Beltre OF MIN 100 134 118 104 116
Edward Florentino OF PIT 112 101 105 111 115
Yeiferth Castillo OF CLE 121 96 94 100 114
Jaset Martinez OF CIN 111 100 103 108 113
Luis Cova OF MIA 114 92 100 113 112
Luis Pena SS MIL 115 101 101 94 111
Adriander Mejia C BAL 112 103 98 106 111
Leodalis De Vries SS SD 100 126 107 105

None at age 18; One well known 19 year old

Age 19 (min 100 PAs):

name POS ORG Contact% xwOBAcon Barrel% Chase% HIT+
Kevin McGonigle SS DET 130 94 111 118 130
Josue De Paula OF LAD 111 113 115 125 124
Demetrio Crisantes SS ARI 119 117 111 108 124
Zyhir Hope OF LAD 110 118 108 120 123
Walker Jenkins OF MIN 123 100 102 111 121
Marco Vargas SS NYM 116 97 107 119 121
Jaison Chourio OF CLE 118 101 103 119 120
Sam Shaw 2B TOR 123 88 96 122 119
Engelth Urena C NYY 114 106 102 115 118
Bryce Eldridge OF SFG 94 132 134 102 117
Jefferson Rojas SS CHC 119 103 107 98 117
Michael Arroyo SS SEA 102 125 123 107 117
Blake Mitchell C KCR 101 119 117 117 116
Samuel Zavala OF CHW 111 91 106 126 116
Aidan Smith OF TBR 102 126 115 110

One 20 year old also well up in our Top 10

Age 20 (min 100 PAs):
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Name POS ORG Contact% xwOBAcon Barrel% Chase% HIT+
Roman Anthony OF BOS 110 113 117 115 123
Sal Stewart 3B CIN 117 115 113 103 123
Cole Young SS SEA 121 100 105 117 121
Thayron Liranzo C DET 97 120 128 121 120
Hendry Mendez OF PHI 119 95 103 115 119
Jackson Holliday 2B BAL 103 110 124 119 119
Angel Genao SS CLE 116 109 113 101 119
Carter Jensen C KCR 104 109 123 114 118
Luke Adams 3B MIL 112 105 96 127 117
Moises Ballesteros 1B CHC 112 110 118 90 116
Logan Wagner 3B LAD 102 110 120 113 116
Pedro Ramirez 2B CHC 119 100 105 96 115
Victor Ortega C MIA 119 92 96 115 115
Cameron Decker SS LAD 96 124 123 110 114
Ryan Clifford 1B NYM 93 120 121 118 114

A couple 22 year olds, with DeLauter rated lower on this statistical method than Ingle

Age 22 (min 100 PAs):

Name POS ORG Contact% xwOBAcon Barrel% Chase% HIT+
Mike Boeve 2B MIL 125 116 119 114 132
Chase Meidroth 3B BOS 133 101 100 123 129
Cooper Ingle C CLE 127 106 109 116 128
Alex Freeland SS LAD 113 114 126 123 128
Kristian Campbell 2B BOS 113 131 119 113 127
Nate Furman 2B CLE 123 107 109 117 127: [traded to SF as part of the deal for Alex Cobb]
Chase DeLauter OF CLE 123 105 103 107 124
Nick Yorke 2B PIT 113 111 120 106 122
Milkar Perez 3B SEA 115 105 111 117 120
Jacob Wilson SS OAK 132 112 92 92 120
Romeo Sanabria 1B SDP 111 112 117 108 120
Agustin Ramirez C MIA 111 120 114 99 120
Jacob Gonzalez SS CHW 123 104 107 98 119
Abimelec Ortiz 1B TEX 107 125 123 92 119
Luis Matos OF SFG 126 114 100 83

A 23 year old minor league graduate

Age 23 (min 100 PAs):
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name pos org Contact% xwOBAcon Barrel% Chase% HIT+
Dalton Rushing C LAD 112 130 134 122 134
Drake Baldwin C ATL 118 113 126 111 129
Josh Kasevich SS TOR 134 96 107 103 127
Kyle Manzardo 1B CLE 115 118 123 111 127
Leo Jimenez SS TOR 117 104 119 112 126
Javier Vaz OF KCR 133 91 94 122 124
RJ Schreck OF TOR 119 108 112 118 124
Rafael Flores 1B NYY 98 130 136 112 123
Brennan Milone 3B OAK 113 108 117 129 123
Matthew Lugo 3B LAA 105 124 126 103

24 year olds not yet in the majors are somewhat suspect

Age 24 (min 100 PAs):
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Reset
NAME POS org Contact% xwOBAcon Barrel% Chase% HIT+
Adrian Del Castillo C ARI 112 141 125 104 128
Nick Cimillo C PIT 111 124 120 118 126
Miguel Vargas OF CHW 114 119 111 119 124
Alan Roden OF TOR 126 111 102 103 123
Payton Eeles 2B MIN 124 102 105 116 123
T.J. Rumfield 1B NYY 122 105 105 104 120
Johnathan Rodriguez OF CLE 103 121 122 107 120
Addison Barger OF TOR 112 116 110 102 119
Jake Rucker 2B MIN 113 100 124 103 119
Wade Meckler OF SFG 117 104 104 117

BA reviews all AL Central draft classes.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... t-classes/

Here is where on the podcast the Guardians are discussed.
(13:30) Guardians
(17:15) Braylon Doughty & Joey Oakie
(20:00) Guardians sleepers