Thanks for posting this BA stuff, Civ

Any stuff on Clemmey? Kid lives about 5 miles from my house in RI.

civ ollilavad wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 11:30 am Prospect grades of 55 all the way through the top 10 is very unusual and very impressive; I will ask BA if any other team has so many well regarded prospects.

I have posted that our minor leagues were very strong. There are at least 5 other players that could make top 10 lists on other team lists.

Civ thanks for posting those rankings. DeLauter is a complete stud. This guy can easily handle CF.

He is very exciting; I note that the "lineup of the future" has DeLauter in RF and Kwan in CF. That's OK too; Kwan has an offensive skill set more appropriate for center than a corner.

I asked about Clemmey. Either I'm the only person with questions or I don't see where they are posted. The chat officially begins at 2. I'll post replies from Teddy Cahill at BA later this afternoon.

Teddy Cahill from Baseball America is answering dozens of questions. I got a lot of mine answered but it's hardly just me! I'll copy them here which will give you plenty to read.

Did welbyn Francesca get any consideration for the top 10? Will he have enough power to be in consideration for the top 100 someday?

I really would have loved to have gotten Welbyn Francisca into the top 10, but I ran out of room. I think he's got top-100 potential for sure and possibly sooner than you'd think. I'm a big believer right now.

Thanks for the chat. Any updates on Daniel espino? Concerned that capsule surgery will limit his great stuff! who should the team consider at #1 next year? Thx

The update is that he's throwing (as recently seen on his IG). That's a pretty recent development and I'm not sure what the timetable is in terms of next steps. Any shoulder injury is a concern, but he's always been so dedicated to training that I feel good about his chances to get back to health.

Did Cade Smith get any consideration for the backend of the top 10? Thanks.

No, but you'll find him in the handbook (preorder now!)

BA wasn't too positive about De Los Santos in the Rule 5 preview. Do you think Cleveland will stick around in '24?

I think that pre-Rule 5 report had more to do with the likelihood of someone taking him, rather than who he is as a prospect. He's a tricky player to deal with from a Rule 5 perspective. If the swing adjustments that he made in the second half of 2023 are sticky, he has real upside. For a chance at his premium righthanded power, I think it's a chance worth taking for Cleveland, but I don't know how easy it will be to hide him on the roster if he struggles.

Who has the highest upside of the middle infield prospects?

I think it's pretty clearly Rocchio. He's a potential all-star, Gold Glove shortstop. He's not without risk, but for me he's the star of the group.

Do you feel like Clemmey is the type of guy who will really excel in Cleveland, or are you concerned with the control/command?

I think Cleveland has more than earned the benefit of the doubt with pitching. There are some concerns, certainly, but them liking what they saw is enough for me at this point. HIs development, especially in the area of control, will be very interesting to watch over the next few years.

Any back of the bullpen arms Guardian fans can look forward to seeing with the big league club?

Cade Smith looks to be the next up after he was added to the 40-man in November. He's got a big fastball and is coming off a really strong season. The one to really watch, however, is Andrew Walters. He was the best reliever in college baseball in each of the last two years and has a big-time fastball-slider combination. I think he can be a high-leverage arm in the big leagues soon.

How much has elbow surgery impacted Justin Campbell’s development? Is he still viewed highly within the organization?

It's a lost year, so that's not great. But it wasn't Tommy John and he's 22. Far from the end of the world for him.

Who do you think ends up with the more productive ML Career: Arias, Valera, Bo Naylor and why?

Give me the big league catcher

What are your thoughts on CJ Kayfus? Seems like someone that could move quick with the lack of OF talent in the upper minors

A tricky player to get a feel for. He's got an abnormal profile no matter where you play him. It's all about either how much power he can add as a professional or how good the bat-to-ball is to overcome not being a slugger despite playing a corner position. I'll be interested to see how he does against upper level arms, either in the second half of 2024 or in 2025.

CLE takes grief for lacking hitter dvlpmnt & they’re sticking to a script with INF / OF contact hitters. D’you see this strategy reversing CLE hitter misfortune

I actually think there's some evidence that they're adjusting. While Ralphy Velazquez has high-end hittability, he's also bringing a lot of power and may not play up the middle. They just took De Los Santos in the Rule 5 draft. I think they want some more power. Not necessarily at the complete expense of the contact skills that have come to define the offense, but I think they are trying to find ways to add power to the system.

How long will Cleveland let Ralphy's defense at catcher hold him back from advancing if his bat looks great in games? Is there any known precedence by them?

There's effectively no precedent in the org. Like, you're going back 20 years to find Ryan Garko for something like this. What I will say is that many thought Bo Naylor was not going to catch because it's always really easy to find evaluators who say amateurs won't stick at catcher. The Guardians stuck with Naylor back there and got him developed without fast tracking him because of his bat. Naylor and Velasquez are not the same players defensively, but I wouldn't look for the Guardians to within a year of drafting the player give up on him catching. And they shouldn't. I don't think we're talking about a Bryce Harper level bat. I'd kind of expect Velazquez to see some time at first in the low minors, but primarily to work on catching and then evaluate on where things are headed in a year or two.

Do you think a change of scenery, new coaches and maturity might return Kahlil Watson to high prospect status?

I think this is a really important year for Kahlil Watson. I'm not saying that all of his struggles are going to be magically fixed by switching organizations and getting in a new spring training environment and all like that, but I do think you want to see early signs of progress. The talent is there and it's not too late to bring it all together.

I really like Will Dion. What was the temperature on him for the staff at BA?

There are WAY more Will Dion questions in the queue than I would have ever anticipated. He's a good pitcher but the reality is that with his profile, he has to prove it at every level. I know sometimes it seems like the sport is overly velocity obsessed, but it's that way for a reason. I don't think it's reasonable to expect that he suddenly finds a lot more velocity as a 24-year-old in his third full pro season, so he's going to have to continue to be successful with fringy fastball velocity. As a lefthander with good offspeed stuff and some deception there's a chance. And a lot of what I just wrote I probably wrote about Eli Morgan. But I do think it's worth tempering expectations for Dion.

Good job, Civ.

Can you ask questions other than about players?

Still would like to hear the real story behind Mike Sarbough.

Any expectation of who Cleveland will take with that first pick? Wetherholt seems like a perfect fit

I hate to be that guy, but it's too early. There isn't a Rutschman in this draft class. A year ago at this time, no one had Paul Skenes going first. No one had Jackson Holliday or Henry Davis going first at this time in 2021 or 2020. Right now Wetherholt seems like a solid choice. Some people like Nick Kurtz or Travis Bazanna. Recent history says it might not be any of those guys though. Maybe Chase Burns takes a step forward. Maybe Jac Caglianone. Maybe someone else entirely. Enjoy the ride this spring.

Any round 3-9 pitchers ready to be the next breakout from the Cleveland Pitching Factory?

The only pitcher the Guardians took in rounds 3-9 in 2023 was Jay Driver in the ninth round. He's interesting. Probably a reliever profile, but an exciting fastball-slider combination from a lower slot when he's at his best.


Johnnathan Rodriguez acquired a power bat in mid 2022. BA has always rated his defense highly. Much chance he will succeed where Oscar Gonzalez did briefly?

That's kind of the hope. When they drafted him, he was one of the youngest players in the class and it was always going to be a longer developmental arc. He's now hitting on some of that upside as he's matured. Given the state of the outfield, I think it's worth giving him a look and I think that's what they intend to do. Whether that power translates to big league pitching, we'll see. But there's certainly reason to feel like he figured something out over the last two seasons.

What's your prediction for Brito in terms of position/role? He seems close to the majors but blocked. Does he end up bench bat or trade piece? Thanks, Teddy!

I really like Juan Brito, despite seeing Nolan Jones having some success. What do you think his ceiling is? Can he turn into Jose Ramirez 2.0?

These two questions were sitting back-to-back in the queue and I like them even though they're really tricky. Is Juan Brito Jose Ramirez 2.0? Unlikely. That dude is awesome and while I underrated him as a prospect, I still don't think that's Brito. So, if he's not that, what is he? More likely a trade piece, I guess. With Ramirez a third and Andres Gimenez signed long term, you have two foundational pieces of the infield settled. Brito is not a shortstop and he's not a first baseman. So, unless the Guardians are going to move Ramirez from third as he starts getting deeper into his 30s, where does that leave Brito? Maybe you can mix in some outfield this year at Columbus, but I don't think that's the answer either. The good news is that this problem can be punted for a year because he only has five games at Triple-A.

Valera has been awfully disappointing. Repeated hand injuries. A very poor AAA debut. Is he projected as the LF because there’s no one else?

The hand/hamstring injuries aren't sticky but they do help explain why this year was as disappointing as it was. We know that hitters take a long time after returning to play from a broken hamate to recover their power. We know hamstring injuries are tough to shake. So, if a player suffers those in spring training, it shouldn't be a surprise when they don't bounce right back. But these aren't the kinds of injuries that should continue to cause him problems into a new calendar year. I think it's fair to ask questions of Valera and I think 2024 is a huge year for him, but I also think the raw tools are still considerable.

Does having the number 1 pick now change how Cleveland goes about managing their farm? As in they could be more likely to trade prospects knowing they get more

In theory, but I doubt you'll see a meaningful change. The one caveat to that is that because of the newness of the draft lottery, we almost never see a team picking No. 1 that's also trying to compete in that same year. But the Guardians are also dealing with a lot of financial uncertainty because of their TV deal right now, so this isn't a time that I would expect to see them pushing more chips in, just because they know they have the opportunity to pick 1-1.

Cleveland is famous for developing pitchers and rather infamous for not developing outfielders. Is it a matter of the coaching or the talent of the players?

It's holistic. The thing about the pitching development in Cleveland is how it's not just scouting and not just PD, but the whole organization working together. Throughout the year I see a lot of people saying if they could only take what they do for pitching into hitting. Yeah, if only, right? Like, they've thought of that too. But building out what they have on the pitching side is not easy and I think it's fair to say that it isn't easy to just carry that over to the hitting side, or specifically to the outfield. So, if we praise the whole org for its success in pitching, it's the whole org that's coming up short in the outfield. That said, Steven Kwan is out there. Their No. 1 prospect is an outfielder. Turning around an MLB farm system (organically, not through trades) is a bit like turning an aircraft carrier in that you can't do it quickly. Maybe they're farther along than we realize.

Thoughts on Arias and what the Guardians should do with him? You seem really high on Rocchio, so I'm assuming you don't see Arias as the SS of the future.

In the immediate, they should have him compete with Rocchio in ST. Assuming Rocchio wins, you're either looking at a fourth infielder or a trade piece. But I don't think you have to make any decision now, I think you can wait and see how the spring plays out first. He does some things that Rocchio doesn't (especially his power) and just because I think Rocchio is the truth doesn't mean that he will be.


With a good year in AA next year do you see Chase DeLauter potentially jumping into a Top 20 overall prospect?
[My comment: I would be stunned if AA is as far as DeL gets next year!]
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if there's at least one BA staff member who turns in a top 100 this winter with DeLauter that high already (and I don't mean me). So, yeah, if he keeps up what he's been doing the last few months, I could see it.

E

Thanks so much Teddy This is always the highlight of the off season. I’m now ready for spring training

Thank you! It's always a pleasure to talk some Cleveland baseball during the winter. This is my ninth year writing its chapter of the handbook and it's always a fun system to dive into. Thanks to everyone for stopping by this afternoon and remember you can preorder the handbook here (https://www.baseballamerica.com/shop-now/).

The good questions were mine.