https://medium.com/@matan_k/finding-com ... 3dae337a8d

Finding Comps for Guardians AAA Sluggers
Matan K
Matan K

·
Follow

8 min read
·
5 days ago
9






George Valera. Photo by Erik Drost
It’s become a punchline. The Cleveland Guardians just can’t hit homers. In 2023, the Guardians compiled just 124 round-trippers, last in MLB by a wide margin. A key culprit for this power outage has been the outfield and DH spots, where teams typically stow their premium sluggers. Guardians outfielders amazing hit only 18 HRs in 2023, good for a measly 84 wRC+, while the DH spot was accumulated 21 homers and an 81 wRC+. Given the Guardians’ proclaimed budget constraints and history of meager spending in free agency, it is reasonable to assume that large improvements to their power-hitting woes in 2023 will have to come from prospects. A common method for evaluating prospects is the use of “comps”: past or current MLB players that are similar to the given prospect. This article will use AAA metrics to provide comps and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of four Guardians AAA prospects: Kyle Manzardo, George Valera, Johnathan Rodriguez, and Jhonkensy Noel.

To evaluate the profile of each hitter, I chose metrics that covered multiple facets of hitting. These facets include plate discipline, contact ability, contact type, hard contact consistency, top-end power, and actualized power. Here is a summary of the metrics used:


Most of these 13 metrics are fairly well-known and commonly used when evaluating players. Here is an explanation of Best Speed for the uninitiated. I specifically selected metrics that are “process-driven” and not affected by results to keep comparisons context-neutral of stadium and other factors.

Taking inspiration from the ZiPS projection system, I used Mahalanobis distance to generate comparable hitters in these 13 metrics. Simply put, the idea of using Mahalanobis distance in this case is to evaluate how similar the metrics of two players are, while taking into account that some metrics are related to each other. So, if players have both similar average EVs and hard-hit rates, it will not “double-count” their similarity to the extent of which both of those statistics are correlated. Mahalanobis distance is used in a similar fashion to find MLB player comps here. To keep the hitter comps fresh and recent, the 4 AAA prospects were compared to MLB individual player seasons from 2021–2023. Keep in mind that these player comps are: 1) Only as hitters, not factoring in fielding ability, baserunning, or body type. 2) Comparisons between AAA and MLB metrics. Obviously, maintaining the same metrics in the majors is a much tougher task. 3) Comparisons made to individual MLB player seasons, not careers. While many of these metrics are stable from season to season, this is a key distinction. 2023 Miguel Cabrera is not the same as career Miguel Cabrera. With all that said, here is an evaluation of all 4 Guardians prospects…

Kyle Manzardo
Manzardo, acquired from the Rays at the trade deadline for Aaron Civale, is widely regarded as a Top 100 prospect. Drafted in 2021, he followed up a scorching 2022 season with a 2023 campaign interrupted by a nagging shoulder injury. Despite a slight drop in production, Manzardo’s 2023 metrics were still quite impressive:


(Percentile is for 2021–2023 MLB 300+ PA batters)
Manzardo was above average in essentially all facets of hitting in 2023 (Percentiles are displayed as more = better for all statistics other than Whiff% and Chase%, though percentiles aren’t as relevant for Swing% and Avg Launch Angle). He especially excelled at controlling the zone and making contact, while displaying slightly above average raw power. As such, many of his comps are also similar to this profile:


That’s quite the list of hitters! Like Manzardo, his comps are excellent hitters who overperform their raw power by making consistent, hard and elevated contact. If Manzardo can repeat the power display he showed in the Arizona Fall League, he seems like a safe bet to be a contributor to the 2024 Guardians at both 1B and DH.

George Valera
Valera is a Guardians top OF prospect that was slowed by hand injuries in 2023, which both limited his playing time and seemed to affect his level of play, as he posted a mediocre statline in AAA. Valera’s injury history combined with concerns about his somewhat grooved swing have resulted in a cooling of his stock entering 2024. However, he is still just 23 years of age and tremendously talented. Here are his 2023 metrics:


(Percentile is for 2021–2023 MLB 300+ PA batters)
Valera is a player that fits the classic archetype of power + plate discipline with below average contact skills. While he does not have the typical high-end EVs of a slugger, Valera makes consistent hard contact while not chasing much at all, with an overall approach that leans towards passive. However, he has serious issues with making contact both inside and outside the strike zone. Here are Valera’s comps:


I think it’s fair to say that Valera is quite similar as a hitter to Andrew McCutchen (of recent vintage)! McCutchen also possesses elite plate discipline and power numbers greater than his raw power would suggest. However, McCutchen’s contact skills are better than Valera’s. In sum, Valera’s metrics and comps based on his 2023 seasons are (unsurprisingly) less impressive than Manzardo’s. However, he still may either improve on them in a healthy 2024 or embrace a role as a high OBP + low AVG hitter, which could work when combined with his solid range and plus arm in the OF.

Johnathan Rodriguez
Rodriguez was perhaps the most positive surprise amongst Guardians prospects in 2023, as he mashed 29 home runs between AA and AAA. Rodriguez is a late-bloomer as a 2017 high school selection, though he’s always had massive raw power. J-Rod’s boom or bust approach is exemplified in his limited (202 PA) AAA metrics:


(Percentile is for 2021–2023 MLB 300+ PA batters)
Rodriguez is the classic all-or-nothing masher. While his average LA is quite low, when he does hit the ball in the air, they go a long way. J-Rod is excellent at squaring balls up for maximum damage, letting his above average raw power play up. However, his plate discipline and contact skills leave a lot to be desired. He does have a penchant for chasing, but the biggest questions are with his contact ability, particularly against fastballs. J-Rod posted a 33% whiff rate vs the pitch in AAA, which is a major red flag for how he projects vs MLB pitching. However, his player comps are impressive:


Unlike with Manzardo and Valera, I don’t feel that J-Rod’s comps properly mirror his strengths and weaknesses. They tend to emphasize the power aspect of his game, in which he is similar to all the players listed above. However, his comps all have lower Whiff rates than Rodriguez, some (like Seager), significantly so. I think this is because J-Rod’s raw contact skills (in terms of Z and O Contact individually) aren’t horrendous and are comparable to players like the Contreras brothers on this list. However, when combined with a high Chase%, they result in an unsustainably high Whiff%. If Rodriguez can refine his approach some, he could be a real impact bat.

Jhonkensy Noel
Noel is perhaps the most puzzling player of the 4. A physical speciman, Noel is capable of unloading on a homer, which he had 27 of in 2023. However, many of his AAA metrics don’t read like those of a huge power hitter:


(Percentile is for 2021–2023 MLB 300+ PA batters)
While Noel has an elite Max EV, unlike Rodriguez he has trouble consistently making hard contact. Noel has an aggressive approach that includes chasing pitches out of the zone at a very high rate. Because of this and a likely supbar ability to square up the baseball, Noel is often wrong-footed on his swing, leading to either harmless popups or dribblers. As a result, Noel has a supbar Hard-Hit rate and just a meh Barrel%. While Noel struggles to hit all pitches hard, he whiffs and chases a disproportionate amount of the time against breaking pitches:


Due to this very strange profile, the “comp machine” has a very hard time finding a match for Noel. His most comparable player-season was of a similar “distance” to the 7th-8th most comparable player of the other three prospects. Here are Noel’s top comps:


Not exactly the list of sluggers that one might expect at first thought. Perhaps most interesting is Maikel Franco, another player with excellent (though not quite as elite) high-end EVs who failed to make the most of his power potential. Many of the others comps are middle-infielders or utility players. These comps are of course inaccurate, but the fact is that in the view of almost every metric, Noel isn’t an elite power hitter or particularly strikeout-prone. While he did hit 27 HRs in the AAA season, the 2023 hitting environment at the AAA level combined with Columbus’s small ballpark makes this number less remarkable (Of 23 players with 550+ PA in AAA this season, 12 had >20 HR). Furthermore, Noel had very few other extra-base hits on the season (just 23 2Bs and 0 3Bs). Noel is a very unique prospect that resists comparison with recent MLB players.

In sum, the Guardians have a number of intriguing power-hitting prospects at the AAA level. Kyle Manzardo is an excellent hitter who compares favorably with many of the recent top all-around hitters at the major league level. George Valera is the classic OBP + HR hitter that will need some improvement (including on the health front) to become a star. Johnathan Rodriguez has many of the attributes of top MLB sluggers, but improving his approach will be key to success. Jhonkensy Noel is a puzzling and unique player. He will need to fine-tune his swing and breaking ball recognition to be an impact bat in MLB.

Thanks, Buck 84. Not an easy article to post. I seen it last week but could not make it look right. The comps are why I think the Guardians can not sign a player to a multi year contract to play center or right field. I see them signing someone to a one year contract near the end of free agency.

j Rod has often been compared to O Gonz but more willing to let some pitches out of the zone go by.

No mention on that list of Chase DeLauter since he's not a classic power hitter. I don't know appropriate comps but he could be a a solid all around talent, perhaps 20 homers, 20 steals, 300 average, walks and strikeout about even, solid defense. How about Stephen Kwan with power?

DeLauter is going to be a star. He will have 25+ home run ability and plays CF very well with a plus arm.

I'm expecting lots from him, too. My initial fears that he might be Brad Zimmer II have been disproven; he has far better control of the strikezone and doesn't appear to make wildly enthusiastic desperate dives and wall-crashings in the outfield.

So we "only" need a power bat in RF. Do the combination of Valera, Rodriguez and Noel give us enough potential that we should only look for a one-year deal for 2024 or are they all questionable enough that we should go for a longer term deal? Unfortunately the decision could well come to $ as usual and someone gets 1 year. As long as it's not Joey Gallo.

Rule 5 projections, from baseball america:

Tanner Burns, RHP, Guardians

Burns has one of the most significant profiles of any player left unprotected. He was a college star at Auburn based on the strength of his fastball and slider combination. He has found success as a professional with a career 3.31 ERA, a 25.3% strikeout rate and a .221 opponents batting average against over 251 innings. He’s been successful as a starter in the upper-minors and spent the last six weeks of 2023 coming out of the Akron bullpen. Burns pitched to a 1.35 ERA with 13 strikeouts to 7 walks over 13.1 innings as a reliever. His fastball sits 92-93 mph as a starter, but his average induced vertical break is one of the highest numbers in the minors, often exceeding 20 inches of IVB during starts. Burns’ 54% fastball usage is extremely high. His primary secondary is a mid-80s cut slider that he throws 25% of the time, but he mixes in an upper-70s curveball with two-plane break and a mid-80s changeup. Burns has no plus pitch, but all of his pitches produced positive run values this season. He shows the acumen to adapt to a variety of roles.

civ ollilavad wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:53 pm I'm expecting lots from him, too. My initial fears that he might be Brad Zimmer II have been disproven; he has far better control of the strikezone and doesn't appear to make wildly enthusiastic desperate dives and wall-crashings in the outfield.

So we "only" need a power bat in RF. Do the combination of Valera, Rodriguez and Noel give us enough potential that we should only look for a one-year deal for 2024 or are they all questionable enough that we should go for a longer term deal? Unfortunately the decision could well come to $ as usual and someone gets 1 year. As long as it's not Joey Gallo.

That is the way I see it. No more than one 2 to 3 year contract but probably more of a stop gap or a chance for a free agent who did not get the contract he wanted to re establish his value on a one year contract.

BA's annual Top 10 posted list with analyses and a followup chat for the Guardians will be Thursday.

Any less obvious minor leaguers anyone would like me to ask about? I cannot promise my questions will all be answered.

I'm curious what stat line they project for DeLauter both early in his career and at his peak.
Do they think Juan Brito will win the "other middle infielder" spot and shove Giminez over to SS.
what's their guess about Kahlil Watson [past top prospect we got for Josh Bell] getting back to his many-tool prospect status?
Who's the next surprise pitcher to come through the famous Guardians Pitching Factory?
Is Justin Campbell expected to be ready to pitch a full 2023?
Chances that CJ Kayfus, 2023 draftee, will show the power at upper levels he demonstrated at his debut in High A?
MIght Jaison Chourio be as big a thing as his brother?

in the minor league Rule 5, where very insignificant players change teams the following transpired:

5. Washington Nationals — Samuel Vazquez, RHP, Guardians. [Have I ever heard of him? Barely if at all. 24 year old RH, 4.50 ERA in Low A in 23; less than half of his 9.55 ERA the previous year at the previous spot. 47 K in 42 IP. Unlikely to achieve stardom]

0. Cleveland Guardians – Tyler Brown, RHP, Astros. 25 year old, born in Mansfield OH. 3rd round pick of HOU from Vanderbilt. 3.12 ERA in AA, but 8.10 in 6 2/3IP [3 hr surrendered in that brief period] in AAA last year. ERA never below 5 at any previous stop in his pro career. Must have shown promise in college but not as a pro

Is pre-draft scouting report:
Brown was a physically mature, hard-throwing high schooler back in 2017, getting up to 95-96 mph with his fastball at the time. Concerns about the effort to his delivery and a Tommy John surgery he’d already had let him get to campus at Vanderbilt, where he’s been a key piece of the program’s impressive pitching staff from day one. Almost all of his time in Nashville has been spent out of the bullpen. Brown has just two starts to his name in 47 appearances, with a 4.22 career ERA in 79 innings. After posting a 6.03 ERA in his freshman season, Brown improved to 2.59 in 41.2 innings in 2019 and posted a 2.53 ERA through seven games and 10.2 innings before the 2020 season ended due to coronavirus. Brown is a big, physical righty with a solid four-pitch mix. His fastball typically sits in the 92-94 mph range and he pairs it with an above-average slider, an average changeup and a curveball that’s more of a fringe-average, 45-grade offering. He’s always been a good strike-thrower at Vanderbilt, with a 2.16 walks per nine rate for his career. Because of that, some scouts think he could handle a starting role. With so many premium pro starting prospects on the current Vanderbilt roster, it wouldn’t be surprising if that were the case, though other scouts note that the track record of college relievers is spotty and also point to a delivery that’s more typical of a reliever. He has the makeup and mentality on the mound to succeed in either role, and with no real holes in his game, there’s a lot to like about the overall package and SEC track record.
Clearly has not met expectations.

Brown was ranked no 17 Astros prospect after the draft and before his full season pro debut

No 30 after his less than stellar performance:

Track Record: Brown closed for a Vanderbilt team that won the 2019 College World Series and set the school’s single-season saves record with 17. He left in second place on the school’s all-time saves list. Houston signed him for $577,000 after taking him in the third round of the 2020 draft. The Astros believe Brown is a starter, but his debut season did not go well. He finished with a 6.95 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP between High-A Asheville and Double-A Corpus Christi.
Scouting Report: Brown has solid strike-throwing ability and a starter’s repertoire, but many evaluators wonder whether he’s better suited to go back to the bullpen because of his high-effort delivery. He sits 90-92 mph with his four-seam fastball as a starter and primarily complements it with an above-average slider that hovers around 78-81 mph. He has both an average changeup and a below-average curveball.
The Future: Brown’s professional debut left a lot to be desired, but the fact the Astros moved him to Double-A despite his struggles signaled confidence in him putting it together. He should start 2022 back in Double-A.

Not surprisingly did not make the top 30 last year and certainly will not now

Round 2 of the Minor League level

Rckies -- RHP Thomas Ponticelli (CLE) 26 1/2year old 4.54 ERA 1.61 WHIP for Columbus this year 12th round pick in 2018
Guardians -- RHP Connor Gillaspie (BAL) 26 year old 9th round 2019 3.89 in AA in 2023 1.15 WHIP

Round 3 Guardians -- LHP John Doxakis (TB) 25 year old big guy 5.47 ERA in AA 1.445 WHIP 2nd round pick by TAM in 2019, more promise I guess than Tyler Brown but probably less performance than Brown

Round 5 Phillies -- 1B Bryce Ball (CLE) 25 year old 24th round pick by ATL Hasn't made it past AA; Akron added him after Cubs released him 224/305/436 for Ducks

Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro

Possible position change? #Guardians 21-year-old switch hitting INF prospect Angel Martinez has been putting in work back in the Dominican Republic in the outfield. Martinez reached Triple-A Columbus in 2023 and is already on the teams 40-man roster.

Makes sense

rusty2 wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:27 pm Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro

Possible position change? #Guardians 21-year-old switch hitting INF prospect Angel Martinez has been putting in work back in the Dominican Republic in the outfield. Martinez reached Triple-A Columbus in 2023 and is already on the teams 40-man roster.

Angel in the Outfield! good name for a movie.

we're having some good Hot Stove discussions,