Cleveland Sports Forum

Never thought about it but I will take a guess. 25 % below average, 50 % average , 20 % above average , 5 % - all stars.

That's a pretty good definition of Average!

available roster spots down to 1 after signing 27 year old journeyman 1st/OF

You can listen to this at the Guardians' home page

Ryan Webb on pitching
Guardians prospect discusses his latest pitching outing in the Arizona Fall League, as he leads the league with strikeouts

2023 MLB Farm System Statcast Hitting Rankings
Cleveland ranks 10th which is surprisingly high
Hit score 102.33
Age adjusted hit score 105.85
90th Percentile Exit Velocity 100.45 ranks last
Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays and Guardians rank at the bottom of 90th percentile exit velocity. The Guardians and Blue Jays have both aggressively targeted hit-over-power players and that plays out here.
Miss Rate CLE 26.37% On this we are top of the list. Here’s where the Guardians stand out, ranking first in miss rate/contact rate. Toronto, which ranks second to last in 90th percentile exit velocity, jumps up to ninth when looking at how organizations rank when it comes to making contact.
Chase Rate CLE 26.76% Here we are just below average


For the first time, Baseball America is measuring performance based on underlying metrics via the Hawkeye data gathered across the minor leagues.

The benefit of using this data versus other statistical analysis is, presumably, we’re able to remove the higher degree of variance that impacts in-game performance numbers and instead measure skill across organizations. A 110-mph line drive caught in the outfield is more indicative of future success than a 65-mph ground ball that finds a hole through the infield, even if one counts as a hit statistically and the other is an out.

Our Methodology

In order to calculate an all-encompassing number across a variety of metrics, we used weighted on base average (wOBA) as a baseline and built our “Hit Score” based on each metrics correlation to wOBA. Our ultimate goal was to weight each input for its importance or correlation to wOBA. Below, you will see the metric we created called Hit Score. This number measures production versus the average in a similar fashion to weighted Runs Created (wRC+) moving up and down from the average score of 100.

All metrics are based around each player’s plate appearances. So if one player has a 110-mph 90th percentile exit velocity, but only 100 plate appearances, his contribution to the organization’s 90th percentile exit velocity metric will be one-fifth as much as a player with a 100-mph 90th percentile exit velocity and 500 plate appearances. The same is true of chase rates and the other measurements.


One important note: this initial Hit Score+ does not consider age as one of the inputs. We know that older hitters should score higher in these metrics than younger hitters. Partly, that is because of physical maturation, but even more it’s based around skill development. As hitters age, they improve. This puts younger systems at a disadvantage when looking at this metric. In order to consider the impact on age, we created a second metric that factors in age to the hit score.

Below you will see the hit score and adjusted hit score for all 30 major league organizations. This number is factoring in exit velocity data, launch angle data, contact data and approach data. It is a variety of metrics you’re familiar with from Baseball Savant and Statcast.

The Hit Score+ is listed in order of production. It has been normalized so 100 is average, and higher numbers are better than lower numbers. A 110 Hit Score+ means the organization’s hit score is 10% above league average, where 90 would be 10% below league average.

Age Adjusted Hit Score+ tries to take an organization’s Hit Score+ and weight it by age, using three years of MiLB hitting metric data grouped by age to account for how hitters improve in many of these metrics with added age and experience. A LOESS smoothing technique — which was actually suggested by ChatGPT — was used to develop a fitted curve to the Hit+ data. It showed hitters rapidly improving in these metrics as they went from 17 to 23. After 23, those numbers largely stabilize before dropping off gradually for players in their late 20s.

While the MLB aging curve usually peaks at age 27 for hitters, the minors are somewhat different. Since the top players continue to graduate to the majors, the production curve in the minors flattens and then tails off at younger ages.

We created a nomalized Hit+ score, an expected Hit+ score (based on the weighted age for the organization), and then an age adjusted Hit+ Score, which was then normalized so 100 is league average.

The Age Adjustment did not dramatically change the results, but it did lead to some teams moving up or down a few spots when compared to their non-adjusted Hit Score+. The table is sorted by Age Adjusted Hit Score +.

in conclusion they write:

Analysis

The Dodgers excel in targeting and developing players with strong swing decisions and their top spot in the organizational chase rate ratings only solidifies that.
The Dodgers, Brewers, Blue Jays and Padres rank within the top 10 in contact rate and chase rate, giving these four organizations the distinction of the teams with the best plate skills. The Tigers are just outside the top 10, but show their consistency, ranking within the top third of the league across a variety of metrics.
The White Sox, Marlins and Rockies rank as the bottom three teams in chase rate and are all bottom five in walk rate at the major league level. This illustrates an organizational philosophy that’s heavily based on putting the ball in play.

[Not stated in the conclusion, but Cleveland obviously emphasizes not swinging at bad pitches and not too concerned if the ball is hit hard]

Just ran across Sports Illustrated posting of top 50 prospects for each team, with No. 44; maybe I'll find the earlier ones. Obviously we are on the longhots at this point, but you never know

Cleveland Baseball Insider's 2023 End Of Season Top 50 Prospects: No. 44 Catcher Victor Izturis
Izturis the nephew of former MLB infielders Cesar and Maicer Izturis hit .263 with a .389 OBP in 2023 playing in the Arizona Complex League.
TODD PAQUETTE42 MINUTES AGO
In this story:
Cleveland Guardians
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
As we close out the 2023 season and players prepare for a new year and spring training to begin, there’s no better time to bring you an up-to-date look at Cleveland Baseball Insiders' top 50 prospects heading into the off-season.

Rankings are based on seeing the players live, watching videos, and having conversations with evaluators within and outside of the organization, as well as other writers.

While prospect lists are fun and entertaining for fans, they are not an end-all-be-all in terms of who makes it eventually to the major leagues. Remember, Jose Ramirez was never a top-100 prospect nationally and players like Steven Kwan and Will Brennan weren't considered top-20 prospects in the Guardians organization by many outside publications.



The ultimate goal here is to inform our readers and give you information on some of the young talent in the organization that they can follow and look forward to seeing in the future at the MLB level.

Victor Izturis - Catcher
AGE - 18
BATS - L
DOB - 3/22/2005
THROWS - R
HT - 5'9"
SIGNED - 1/15/2022
WT - 165
ETA - 2027


The now 18-year-old catching prospect Victor Izturis received the second-highest bonus in the Guardians 2022 international class, signing for $1.15MM out of Barquisimeto, Venezuela. Only outfield prospect Jaison Chourio received more at 1.2MM in that same signing class.

Izturis made his professional debut in 2022 playing in 37 games in the Dominican Summer League where he hit .252 with a .389 OBP and 105 wRC+ covering 150 plate appearances.

Scouting Grades
Hit - 50
Arm - 50
Power - 25
Field - 55
Run - 45
Overall - 40

Victor already has a very high baseball IQ for an 18-year-old just two years into his pro career thanks in large that he is the nephew of former MLB players Cesar and Maicer Izturis and trained at their Baseball Academy they run together in Venezuela.

Izturis has great instincts and terrific pitch recognition at the plate with the ability to draw a walk. He utilizes the whole field and likes to shoot the ball the other way if given the opportunity. His ability to handle the bat and reach any ball in the zone should lead to hitting for a higher average.

He may develop more power in the future as he matures but so far it hasn't shown up in his game. The lack of pop at the plate is really the only negative to a strong profile as a hitter moving forward.

Behind the plate on defense, he offers an average to above-average arm with soft hands. Izturis may add more arm strength as he continues to mature and fill out more. He shows athleticism as a catcher behind the plate but is just an average to below-average runner overall.

2024 and Future Outlook
For the upcoming 2024 season look for the Guardians to have Izturis begin the year at Low-A Lynchburg. Izturis should be able to handle the jump facing some more advanced pitching despite his young age and maintain a fairly high average and on-base percentage. The one thing to look for is any increased ability to drive the ball and produce more extra-base hits.

If Izturis continues to develop and gets stronger and adds more pop, he has the ceiling of an average to above-average everyday catcher with the ability to hit for a higher average and get on base at a high rate.


While he may never approach double-digit home run seasons if he can at least add some gap-to-gap power to his game along with his on-base skills could hit higher up in an order in the future.

His high baseball IQ already at such a young age and ability to control a game behind the plate as well as his bloodlines gives him a potential floor of at least an MLB backup at a premium position.

Here's No. 46

Yaikel Mijares - Infielder
Mijares signed for $275K out of Caracas, Venezuela as part of the Guardians 2023 international signing class on January 15th, 2023. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2023.

Scouting Grades
The athletic Mijares has an average to above average arm as well as speed. He can handle shortstop and third base but may grade out best second base for the future.
Yaikel despite his size shows pretty impressive power that consistently is able to barrel up the baseball making hard contact to all fields. His power production may even increase as he matures and gets stronger. He showed a good eye at the plate in his first season showing the ability to work a walk.

2023 Stats
Mijares came out of the gates hot in his first pro-season doing most of his damage over his first 25 games. In those 25 games he triple slashed .303/.441/.528 posting a .970 OPS while collecting 10 extra base hits. Four of those extra base hits went for home runs three of which were grand slams! Along with the power display he stole 10 bases and drew 19 walks and drove in 25 runs.

His offensive output did slow down over his final 16 games of the season but still finished putting up outstanding numbers over his 41 games played. Mijares finished with a .253 AVG, .388 OBP and a 123 wRC+ over his 178 plate appearances. He drove in 30 runs on 14 extra base hits while swiping 15 bases. Mijares scored 41 runs drawing 27 walks good for a 15.2% walk rate.

Mijares started 18 games at second base, eight at shortstop, seven at third base and six as the designated hitter.

2024 and Future Outlook
Look for Mijares to make the jump to the states and start his 2024 campaign in the Arizona Complex League. It will be interesting to see if he continues to show the impressive pop he displayed in the Dominican Summer League.

A solid defender that can handle second, third and shortstop positions it will ultimately be the development of his bat as he advances through the farm system that will decide his future at the big-league level.

With a possible dynamic combo of power and speed if Mijares can keep his strikeout rate down and walk rate above average he has a projectable ceiling of a starter at the MLB level. His floor could still be that of a versatile switch-hitting middle infield utility player.

Another kid not old enough to buy a beer
No. 47

Luis Merejo Jr. - First Base / Third Base
The now 17-year-old corner infield prospect Merejo Jr. signed for $340K as an international free agent on January 15th, 2023, out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

Luis was actually born in Port St. Lucie, Florida but moved to the Dominican Republic when he was 14 years old making him eligible to be selected as an international free agent. He made his professional debut during the 2023 season in the Dominican Summer League.

Scouting Grades
Merejo Jr. possesses a very mature approach at the plate for such a young player. His best tool being his plus power that eventually once he fills out his 6-foot-2 long frame might transition to plus, plus power potential. He has the ability to hit to all fields with a short compact stroke with terrific bat-to-ball skills and produces hard contact consistently.

Merejo is athletic enough he has a chance to stick at third base but may eventually need to transition to first base or a corner outfield position in the future. He has an average to above average arm and has average speed.

2023 Stats
In a Guardians deep 2023 international first year player class that included Welbyn Francisca, Jose Pirela, Yaikel Mijares, Yerlin Luis among others it was Merejo Jr. who led all of them in AVG .321, OPS .926 and wRC+ 147 in Dominican Summer League action. He did all this while spending the first two-thirds of the season as just a 16-year-old.

Over his 40 games Merejo Jr. collected 12 extra base hits including four home runs while driving in 32 runs and drawing 20 walks. His bat-to-ball skills were evident striking out just 15.3% of the time over 170 plate appearances.

On defense he started 22 games at first base, 14 games at third base and four at designated hitter.

2024 and Future Outlook
Merejo Jr. should begin the 2024 season in the Arizona Complex League despite still being only 17 years old still when the season starts in early June.

Two things to look for from Merejo Jr. in 2024 is increased power production as he continues to fill out and mature. The second is will he be able to still hit for average as well as keep his strikeout rate low as he faces more advanced pitching moving forward.

While Merejo Jr. is not close to reaching the MLB level, he does have an exciting mix of tools including one that all Guardians fans currently covet, power. His ceiling is extremely high, but the continued development of his bat will take him as far as he goes.

Currently a hit first prospect he may need to move off third base and make a full move to first base or possible a corner outfield position down the line. As Luis frame continues to fill out, he may lose some of the agility and quickness to handle the hot corner.

FWIW Home Run Derby for Arizona Fall league results:

he two-round totals for the other six participants were as follows:

Jase Bowen (Pirates): 14 (plus 4 in the tiebreaker)
Ivan Melendez (D-backs): 14 (plus 2 in the tiebreaker)
Kyle Manzardo (Guardians): 14 (plus 1 in the tiebreaker)
Gabriel Rincones Jr. (Phillies): 13
Wes Clarke (Brewers): 6
Kevin Alcántara (Cubs): 5

found their No. 45 guy today

Robert Lopez - Catcher

Age - 19


BATS - L

DOB - 1/02/2004


THROWS - R

HT - 5'10"


SIGNED - 1/15/2001

WT - 150


ETA - 2026

The now 19-year-old catcher Lopez received the third highest bonus in the Guardians 2020 international class, signing for $1MM out of Caracas, Venezuela. Only switch-hitting infielders Angel Genao and Fran Alduey received a larger signing bonus.

He made his pro-debut playing in 32 games during the 2021 season playing in the Dominican Summer League. In 2022 he appeared in just 25 games in the Arizona Complex League.

Those first two seasons he struggled at the plate hitting just .180 with a 73 wRC+ over his 57 games played and 224 plate appearances. Despite his offensive struggles his defense didn't suffer as he threw out 30% of baserunners trying to steal combined over the two seasons.
Scouting Grades

Hit - 35


Arm - 55

Power - 45


Field - 50

Run - 35


Overall - 40

Lopez is currently a defense first catching prospect blessed with above average arm strength. Even before he was signed by the Guardians Lopez earned the nickname in Venezuela the "Captain" because of his ability to lead and help control the game on the field.

At the plate Lopez is still a work in progress but still has plenty of time for this part of his game to develop. He has a sweet compact stroke from the left side that has the potential to produce and add more pop moving forward as he matures and continues to add strength. He has a good eye with the ability to draw a walk.

Lopez is a below average runner but does show some nice athleticism for the catcher position.

Lopez started the 2023 season in Goodyear, Arizona held back by the organization for extended spring training. That all changed when Low-A Lynchburg's starting catcher Manuel Mejias went down with a fractured left hand in early May.

Lopez got the promotion on May 10th and stepped right in as the starting catcher for Lynchburg. He remained the starter until mid-August when Mejias returned from his injury. The two then split time over the last month of the season.

Over his 67 games with Lynchburg the 19-year-old Lopez had some peaks and valleys on offense but overall showed much improvement at the plate from his first two seasons. Lopez finished hitting .243 with a .319 OBP and a 99 wRC+ over 273 plate appearances with Lynchburg. He finished with 20 extra base hits and 41 RBI's drawing 27 walks.

During the season he had a 22 game on-base streak in which he hit .275 with an impressive .385 OBP thanks to 15 walks. During the streak he hit four doubles and three home runs while driving in 20 runs hitting in the heart of the Hillcats order. Lopez also had an 11-game hitting streak in which he hit .381 with a .447 OBP along with three long balls and nine RBI's.

While Lopez made some major strides offensively his defense stayed strong throwing out 25% of baserunners while providing terrific defense leading the Hillcats behind the plate.
2024 and Future Outlook

The Guardians could start Lopez at High-A Lake County in 2024 but he will just be 20 years old with only 67 games at the Low-A level. The other reason he might begin the season back at Lynchburg is that the Guardians drafted two collegiate catchers in 2023 in 4th Round Pick Cooper Ingle and 11th Round Pick Johnny Tincher. Both Ingle and Tincher could start the season with Lake County holding Lopez back.

Manzardo with a 2 run homer in the Arizona all star game. DeLauter drew a walk.

Back to work for the final week in the Arizona league;

Although he homered in the All Star game, Manazardo has been slumping somewhat ver the past couple weeks. 1-5 yesterday a double. He's hitting 238. 843 OPS
DeLauter had a good game yesterday: his 5th homer matches Manzardo, and singled and as usual walked Hitting 269 883 OPS
Ryan Webb with 4 scoreless innings, Ks less than usual, 3, were matched with 3 walks, 2 hits. ERA 4.37

Top Tuesday prospects:


Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians: After recovering from a foot injury that cost him a chunk of the regular season, DeLauter opened enough eyes to land on BA’s Top 100. He has continued crushing the ball in the AFL. On Tuesday, he popped his fifth AFL home run as part of two-hit, one-walk afternoon. DeLauter’s three RBIs gave him 26 for the fall, pushing him past Mesa’s Kevin Alcantara for the league lead.

[just to note: Alcantara has four full minor league seasons, but is 9 months younger]

DeLauter double single 2 strikeouts in 4 at bats
Manzardo single 2 strikeouts in 4 at bats
Erik Sabrowski 1 1/3 innings, strikeouts all 4

Sabrokwski overall 9 1/3 innings 16 strikeouts only 4 hits but 12 walks 1.86 ERA
6-4 230 lefty
26 years old
drafted back in 2018 by SanDiego 14th round
but he's had plenty of injury history and little mound history
his pro career:
didn't start until 2021 with 29 innings in HIgh A 41 strikeouts 12 walks 18 hits 1.86 ERA
didn't return to the mound until 2023 21 1/3 innings in Akron 28 strikeouts 18 walks 13 hits 2.49

With his limited experience, age and background it's pretty unlikely he needs to be on the 40 man roster.