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I knew there was someone more famous than Kwan but didn't see Rutchsmann's name when I looked up OreSt grads in the majors

2024 MLB Draft 1.1 Stock Watch List - Week 13

JUSTIN LADA AND WILLIE HOOD

MAY 14

Week 13

2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State) 4-11, 2B, 4 (non-intentional) BB/3 K, SB vs. UCLA (.424/.589/.972, 11 2B, 26 HR, 14 SB, 66 BB/28K): Not an exciting weekend for Bazzana as he walked four times non-intentionally and one more time intentionally, but still solid overall. He continues to look the part and produce at a high-quality level. A decent challenge this weekend awaits against Arizona. Not high end college pitching, but they have a staff that is producing in the face of a tough pitching environment both in stadium and sport wide.

https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1789778154573156714

RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest) 7IP, 2H, ER, 16 K/1 BB v. Clemson (64.2IP, 127 K/16 BB, 2.92 ERA): Another dominant performance for Burns against a good lineup in Clemson. He hasn’t had any of the control issues that make him a relief risk in the draft. It’s just the violent delivery and the risk all pitchers who throw this hard face. It’s more of a question of will he get enough chases in the pros like he does in college that will put more emphasis on command.

https://x.com/WakeBaseball/status/1789079183739789658

LHP/1B Jac Caglianone (Florida) 4-9, 2B, HR, 2 (non-intentional) BB/1 K vs. Kentucky; 6.1IP, 2H, ER, 3 K/3 BB vs. Kentucky; (.418/.529/.862, 3 2B, 28 HR, 38 BB/18 K; 59.2 IP, 66 K/40 BB, 4.07 ERA): A good weekend against Kentucky, which is a decent team, for Jac. His usually aggressive stat line, being intentionally walked six times. He didn’t miss a lot bats on the mound and Kentucky can hit, so that’s telling. Still his line was OK. Nobody seems to be suggesting he can do both at the next level will, but the bat is special, he’s just limited to first base.

https://x.com/bigdonkey47/status/1787987453967507486

OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) 5-14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 non-intentional walk vs. South Carolina; (.514/.567/1.082, 18 2B, 34 H, 46 BB/37 K): South Carolina doesn’t have much in the way of pitching this year, so Condon had a good weekend, no surprise. We did see Saturday’s starter look to go up and in under his hands with fastballs, which he struggled with at times, so keep an eye out for that.

https://x.com/BaseballUGA/status/1788734917200970162

OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .582/.718/1.040, 12 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 45 BB, 9 K, 78 SB, 55 IP, 91 K/18 BB, 0.64 ERA: Griffin continues to put up video game numbers in the Mississippi high school ranks, though the level of competition out there in past years has been a question. He’s still in play to be one of the first two prep players off the board and has some of the most upside potential in the class of anyone.

https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1767690047099416781

1B Nick Kurtz (Wake Forest): 3-8, HR, 6 RBI, 5 non-intentional BB, 1 K vs. Clemson; (.322/.538/.805. 10 2B, 20 HR, 66 BB/33 K): Clemson is a good team though their pitching is a bit up and down. Kurtz didn’t do much with it over the weekend, but he also didn’t get much to hit and he laid off accordingly.

https://x.com/Wake_Analytics/status/17 ... 580435518

OF Braden Montgomery (Texas A&M): 2-11, 3 BB/2 K vs. Ole Miss (.333/.476/.778, 14 2B, 24 HR, 51 BB/48 K, 5 SB): That’s back to back slow-ish weekends for Montgomery and Ole Miss is not particularly as good here in 2024. Overall, Montgomery has great tools and is a great hitting prospect. He may be showing some more swing and miss lately and could be falling back in the pack, but there’s still a lot of time.

https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1787988801249575235

LHP Hagen Smith (Arkansas): 5IP, 4H, 3ER, 4 BB/11 K vs. Mississippi State; (71IP, 136 K/29 BB, 1.65 ERA): Not Smith’s best line of the year. In fact, it’s the most earned runs he’s allowed all year, tied for his three runs in one inning first game of the year vs. James Madison. It’s the fifth start of 13 total where he’s walked three or more. Keep an eye on that as the season goes on because control is the biggest issue here and the lack of track record for it, plus you know, pitchers and TJ, of course.

https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1789100469106962649

SS/2B JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): 5-10, 2 HR, 2 non-intentional BB/2 K vs. Kansas State; (.384/.525/.686, 8 2B, 6 HR, 25 BB/10 K, 5 SB): A strong weekend for Wetherholt as he looks to be heating up with the more at bats he gets coming off of his injury. But it appears he’s still favoring his leg at times and we haven’t seen him really prove himself at short enough to maybe move back up the board at this point.

https://x.com/burkegranger/status/1789464606739464338

Justin’s ranking

Travis Bazzana
Charlie Condon
Braden Montgomery
Nick Kurtz
Chase Burns

In next:

Hagen Smith, Jac Caglianone, Bryce Rainer, Konnor Griffin

Comment:

I’m still sticking with Bazzan and Condon as a 1A-1B and I don’t think there’s any reason to change most of the year. Montgomery is the next most talented guy, maybe more talented than both in some ways, but more swing and miss risk. Smith had a rough weekend and Kurtz, is, well we all know I can’t quick Nick Kurtz. I did move Burns into the five spot this week and moved Smith out based on that performance and the walks popping back up. Plus I think Burns dominated the better team than Smith struggled against.

Willie ranking

Travis Bazzana
Charlie Condon
Braden Montgomery
Hagen Smith
JJ Wetherholt

Comment:

I've flip flipped back and forth between Charlie Condon and Travis Bazzana a few times. Condon is largely considered the 1.1 player in this draft class. That being said, this 1.1 watch is specific to what Cleveland does. Looking at the premium the organization places on contact, chase, track record, and Cape Cod League performance all arrows point back to him. Add increasing chatter that Travis Bazzana is likely the pick because of his polish and professionalism and its hard to believe he's not “him.”

That said, don't rule out Charlie Condon, he has all of the same things going for him (outlined above), excluding Cape performance while facing superior opposition and being 9 months younger.

Braden Montgomery has proven himself to be a top-3 talent with his upside and performance. He's an elite SHH corner bat with possibilities of sticking in CF. Montgomery produces the highest hard hit balls in the class paired with some of the best barrel rates in the class.

Hagen Smith has done everything he can to force himself into the equation at 1.1. In fact, he has paralleled the performance of Paul Skenes a year ago. With prioritization of left-handed pitching in the organization (look at the top pitching prospect list) he could have a real shot at 1.1.

JJ Wetherholt has re-entered these rankings. The 70-grade hit tool is real and he's pairing it with ridiculous amounts of walks (25 BB to 10 K). He's shown positional flexibility playing short, second, third, right field, and left field in his collegiate career. He hasn't proven he can play shortstop but there's a good chance he can move quickly and play more than adequate defense at whatever non-SS position he ends up at. Couple it with good speed (albeit currently limited by hamstring injury) and 55-power. It's hard to find players with his overall contact skills and zone awareness. To get to 1.1 we are probably talking about a deep cut. It doesn't seem likely, someone cue Jim Carey, “there's a chance.” Sort of like there's a chance the moon falls to planet Earth.

Just missed:

Nick Kurtz, Konnor Griffin, Jac Caglianone, James Tibbs, Chase Burns, Bryce Rainer, Trey Yesavage

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Justin and Willie, whoever they may be, agree on their first pick.

Condon is supposedly going to ask for the highest signing bonus of all time. Not surprising since every year it seems to go up. Could be another reason the Guardians pass.

The Gators’ Jac Caglianone and Georgia’s Charlie Condon faced off for the first time this season. The two are semifinalists for the Dick Howser Trophy, rewarded to the best player in college baseball. Condon came into the game leading the nation in batting average (.454) and home runs (34), while Caglianone entered the game tied for second in the country in home runs with 28.

Caglianone struggled at the plate Thursday, striking out twice. He was intentionally walked once but failed to get a hit. Condon went 1-for-2 at the plate and was walked three times.

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Who will go No. 1 in the Draft? Our experts weigh the odds

By Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Brendan Samson @brendan_samson

7:20 PM EDT

College baseball conference tournaments are upon us, and the MLB Draft is just under two months away.

While we still have plenty of baseball to watch between now and July 14, it’s never too early to hypothesize, or perhaps even fantasize, about who the Cleveland Guardians will select No. 1 overall.

The general consensus is that a college hitter – most likely named Charlie Condon or Travis Bazzana – will hear his name called ahead of the rest on Draft night, but as we’ve seen dozens of times before, nothing is a guarantee.

Just look at last year’s board. Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes dominated conversations all the way up until the actual event, and even then, there was no guarantee who was going to go first. As we know, the Pirates ultimately selected Skenes and that’s working out pretty well.

So this year, while Georgia’s Condon and Oregon State’s Bazzana are favorites for the No. 1 spot, anything can happen as the NCAA season winds down.

On this week’s edition of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, our Draft experts Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo mulled over the options and made their predictions. They broke down Condon and Bazzana’s odds to go first overall and even threw in a couple dark horse candidates who could swoop in.

Mayo and Callis divvied up 100 percentage points among their candidates to go No. 1 overall, thus setting odds for the pick.

Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 2)

Callis 40% | Mayo 40%

Callis: "I think Bazzana fits the Guardians' model a little bit more than Condon in terms of prioritizing contact and swing decisions.

“It's way too early, nothing is set in stone, the Guardians have not made a decision, but the other teams picking near the top of the Draft believe if the Draft were today that the Guardians are taking Travis Bazzana.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1789778154573156714


Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 1)

Callis 38% | Mayo 40%

Callis: “I would take Charlie Condon because I think he has tremendous power and he's a very good hitter who makes very good swing decisions and makes a lot of contact.”

Mayo: “I still think it's pretty up in the air. Even if the industry thinks that Bazzana is the guy I'm not ready to jump off the Condon bandwagon just yet.

“I think Condon’s the best player in the Draft.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1791952958222963016


Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3)

Callis 10% | Mayo 8%

Callis: “The Guardians’ system is not as deep in pitching as it used to be. Caglianone has a huge chase rate, makes a lot of contact, but a huge chase rate. I feel like Hagen Smith might be a little bit more of a Guardians guy than Caglianone.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1791913223467245920


Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 6)

Callis 11% | Mayo 6%

Mayo: “We have a sneaky suspicion that Hagen Smith goes in the top six picks.

“Hagen Smith is almost part of the 'field,' and if they're not going to go with one of those top three hitters, it's probably more likely to be Hagen Smith than anybody else it could be.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1791317856644419905


Field:

JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia (No. 8), Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.) (No. 9)

Callis 1% | Mayo 6%

Mayo: “There are the rumors that Cleveland is going to be creative. The rumors that we always hear ... that the team picking first is going to try to be more creative with their bonus pool money and maybe go a little further down and save more and use it and spread it around more.

“I think that's where Konnor Griffin comes into play. I think I was leaving a little more room for a player like that, a player like JJ Wetherholt, if they wanted to do that.”

Callis: “You could do a lot worse than say ‘Hey, we're going to take a discount on JJ Wetherholt.’”

“Maybe he'd sign for eight million and I don't know what you do with all that money, but you save a bunch. ... If I had to pick my top candidate from the field, outside of those four guys, I think it might be JJ Wetherholt.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1791640603962327489

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2024 MLB Draft 1.1 Stock Watch List - Week 15

JUSTIN LADA AND WILLIE HOOD

MAY 30

Week 15 (End of Conference Tournaments)

2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State) Final regular season line: 55 GP - .418/.581/.939, 16 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, 15 SB, 71 BB/32 K: Oregon State will host a regional starting this week, but Bazzana’s full body of work in 2024 included a .44 point increase in batting average over 2023, .81 points in on-base percentage, and over .300 points in slugging percentage. He walked 12 more times and struck out 15 times less. The year-over-year improvements were a result of offseason work to get the ball in the air more and drive it, and it clearly worked. Oregon State was unable to capture a PAC 12 conference title but should have a chance to get into Super Regionals.

RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest) Final regular season line: 12 GS - 77.2 IP, 155 K/18 BB, 2.43 ERA: Burns struck out an absurd 15 hitters in the ACC semifinals, getting revenge on the Tar Heels from earlier in the season, the only team who really got to him. Burns simply overpowered them. He looked as dominant as ever and looks more control of his delivery and of his arsenal than when he started the season. There has been some real growth in that area, which scouts did want to see. Wake has a tough regional draw but should have a chance to advance with Burns and whoever else they decide to throw.

LHP/1B Jac Caglianone (Florida)Final regular season line: .415/.525/.844, 4 2B, 29 HR, 41 BB/21 K; 62 IP, 68 K/44 BB, 4.35 ERA: A comically good season offensively for the Caglianone, hitting 29 homers and just four doubles. The barrel ability is good and he trimmed his K% from 18% to 8%. His strikeout rate was never truly the problem, it was his chase rate. And it was up nearly 37% towards the end of the year, down from 40% last year. 20 of his 41 walks were intentional. On the mound, Caglianone missed less bats and walked a few more. It will be interesting to see if he gets the chance to pitch for Florida in the double-elimination regional, drawing Nebraska in the Oklahoma State regional with Niagra as well.

OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) Final regular season line: .443/.558/1.043, 19 2B, 35 HR, 50 BB/39 K, 10 HBP - That is just an absurd batting line, leading all of Division I in batting average, homers, slugging and OPS. Despite being knocked out of the SEC tournament early by white-hot LSU, Georgia drew a #1 seed and hosted Georgia Tech, UNC-Wilmington, and Army. They should have a good chance to get to super regionals, where a test against North Carolina State or possibly SEC foe South Carolina would await. Condon won’t face much better pitching in regionals, so look for Condon to do more damage or get pitched around (23 of his 50 walks were intentional) though the Bulldogs have a deep, dangerous lineup. The only arguments against Condon at this point are his size and how much his bonus demand will be at 1-1.

OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .559/.690/.966, 13 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 47 BB, 10 K, 85 SB; 67.2 IP, 107 K, 26 BB, 0.72 ERA: Griffin had a bonkers season, one you have to have to put yourself on the map for the first overall pick, especially in Mississippi. He remains the only prep player Cleveland has been publicly connected to. Bryce Rainer might be the next best position player in the class but he is 19 and that might preclude Cleveland from seriously considering him on an underslot deal here. They’ve probably done their due diligence with him but they’ve not been publicly connected to him yet.

1B Nick Kurtz (Wake Forest) Final regular season line: .313/.538/.789, 11 2B, 22 HR, 76 BB/39 K - Kurtz had a great game vs. UNC in the ACC semifinal, tying the game in the ninth with two outs and then hitting the go-ahead homer. Wake got a #2 seed in the ECU regional and should have a good chance to get to super regionals if their other starters not named Burns show up. But that won’t matter for Kurtz’s draft stock because his body of work the last two years will say enough. He probably needed a Condon season to stay in the thick of the 1-1 conversation. Underslot even at 1B probably won’t be enough, but someone is going to jump at the chance in the top 10 to get a middle-of-the-order bat for years.

OF Braden Montgomery (Texas A&M) Final regular season line: .317/.451/.742, 14 2B, 26 HR, 56 K/51 BB - Montgomery didn’t end the regular season or the SEC tourney on a real strong note but still had a fantastic season. If Cleveland were to view him, Bazzana, Condon as similar values and have it come down to money, he probably ends up on the outside. The Aggies are hosting a regional with Texas, a very tough Louisiana team, and Grambling. A&M has a tough draw and they’ll need Montgomery to do his part to make it out.

LHP Hagen Smith (Arkansas) Final regular season line: 79 IP, 154 K/30 BB, 1.48 ERA - Smith’s velo and stuff were very off in his only SEC tourney start, going two innings, throwing 92-93 and having spotty control at that. There have been some reports this year that his stuff has looked like this at times in starts, but overall he’s been a dominant machine. Arkansas hosts a regional that is not all that difficult, with Kansas State and Louisiana Tech, and facing Southeast Missouri. Smith should be amped up for that. He’s probably still in the discussion but the competition for the first arm off the board is tough.

Justin’s ranking

Travis Bazzana
Charlie Condon
Chase Burns
Konnor Griffin
Nick Kurtz

In next:

Hagen Smith, Jac Caglianone, Braden Montgomery

Comment:

I have a feeling this will be my final top 3, Bazzana, Condon, and Burns. I think Burns has put himself into position to be a potential underslot discussion/leverage pick. In the end, Cleveland probably goes between Bazzana or Condon, but the top 5 here is who I expect connected at this point. You could probably Burns, Smith, and Griffin or Kurtz in any order and have it be about the same or close. I don’t know how much it will change with the NCAA tournament, so maybe it will just change based on rumors. The work is put in now though and this is pretty much the list now. It will come down to bonus.

Willie ranking

Charlie Condon
Travis Bazzana
Chase Burns
Konnor Griffin
JJ Wetherholt

Comment:

This isn't a simple top 5 ranking. Condon seems to be the top talent across most draft boards because of his performance over the last two years and potential upside. That being said, Joe Doyle recently noted his representative isn't known for cutting team-friendly deals. This isn't a no-brainer situation by any means either. Charlie Condon is potentially the top bat in the class and not the right (financial) fit for the organization. There's a chance Cleveland can shave off a significant amount from the signing bonus and still come away with Charlie Condon. It's worth noting the 2nd pick overall is allotted $770K less than the 1st overall selection. The club could simply offer a tad above the Reds $9.79M allotment and save somewhere in the $500K-$770K range. Alas, that's speculative and jumping the gun.

That leads us to Travis Bazzana. He's an excellent prospect in his own right. Truth be told this is a 1A and 1B situation and things could not have turned out better for the Guardians organization. With just a 2% chance at landing that top pick (remember that on draft day). Then, the development of the top tier of talent to boot.

Things have truly turned full circle with Chase Burns re-emerging in this last short list of potential candidates at 1.1. His 14K performance against UNC was impressive, but it was one of numerable dominant starts with 10+ Ks. The development of a potential plus CB and improving CH paired with an 80-grade FB and an elite soul capturing 70-grade SL throughout the season puts him within reach of 1.1 territory.

Konnor Griffin’s youth and upside place him in 1.1 conversations. He was a 1.1 candidate for the 2025 MLB Draft in what is considered a deeper draft class than this current crop before reclassified to 2024 making him one of the youngest players available. Griffin is the middle-middle candidate teams had hoped would emerge. It's a series of 55 to 70-grade tools. It's those tools, the work ethic, the youth, and the belief he could become a franchise face in quick order that put him in discussion at 1.1.

Last but not least is pre-season 1.1 JJ Wetherholt. There's a special 70-grade hit tool, plus power and speed and some belief that he could stick at shortstop and be at least average. While his position is TBD his experience in the outfield and at 2b and 3b create positional flexibility. That's a valuable asset to pair with the aforementioned tools. To go 1.1 it probably means a significant haircut, but there's an outside possibility.

Hagen Smith slips from the top 5 rankings but his power stuff, 4-pitch mix, youth, and track record may make him a dark horse candidate because of his handedness and track record.

It will come down to the final hours leading up to the draft before there's a clear picture of who CLE will pop 1.1. Be sure that it will ultimately come down to the bottom line and financial savings.

Just missed:

Hagen Smith, Nick Kurtz, Jac Caglianone, Braden Montgomery, James Tibbs

<

Baseball America is projecting that Cleveland will go for someone rated a few spots lower [specifically JJ Wethrholt and sign him for a couple million less than the other 2 guys would cost, and use the savings for overslot payments further down the draft, Cleveland has used that approach before.

1. Guardians — JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
In our previous mock, I said to not count out Wetherholt to the Guardians. I’ve only heard more buzz about this as a real possibility in recent weeks—even if I would probably still lean toward Travis Bazzana or Charlie Condon (in that order) if this was my final mock.

If Wetherholt’s camp feels like there’s a real chance he slides into the 4-10 range of the draft it could make sense for him to take a deal with the Guardians and secure a bigger bonus. In 2021, the Pirates signed Henry Davis to around $1.9 million under slot as the first overall pick. Using that template here and rounding up to an even $2 million, what if Wetherholt got an $8.5 million deal? That’s greater than slot value for every pick beyond the first three. It would also still be good for the third-largest bonus in draft history.

For Cleveland it allows them to still have around $10.7 million in bonus pool money to spend for the rest of the draft—assuming Cleveland goes to the full 5% overage, which feels like a safe bet given their history of doing so. That $10.7 million figure is more than the total bonus pools for 16 teams this year. This could help the Guardians drive a mid-first-round talent to their next pick at No. 36. More on who that could be below.

the later options are reviewed in these notes:
11. Tigers — Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz.
Detroit has been linked heavily with Caminiti. He seems to have a number of potential landing spots in the 10-15 range. Given his age, I would assume the Guardians might love an opportunity to pay him over slot with their second pick, but I just don’t see him getting that far down the board with the heat he’s earning in the middle of the first. Caminiti has a power fastball, great athleticism and was consistently electric this spring with mixed opinions on the quality of his breaking stuff. There’s big-time upside and a lot to dream on here.

36. Guardians — Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Jonesboro, Ark.
The entire rationale of the 1-1 Wetherholt pick was to save money to put toward another impact talent at 36. Initially I thought about targets being Cam Caminiti and William Schmidt because they are high school pitchers—typically the easiest profile to float down the board—but couldn’t convince myself that either made it quite this far.

That’s the risk with the strategy. But Caldwell would also be a great fit on talent as a mid-first type value and because he’s young for the class with contact skills the Guardians always covet. If Cleveland simply stacked the $2 million in savings onto this slot that I theorized for the Wetherholt pick, that would add up to about a $4.57 million deal that would top slot value of any pick in the 17-35 range.

Even As College Home Run Rates Soar, Charlie Condon’s Record-Breaking Season Still Shines
The Georgia third baseman and potential No. 1 overall pick hit an NCAA-record 37 home runs this season.

Charlie Condon Named Baseball America’s 2024 College Baseball Player Of The Year
Few players are as accomplished in the batter’s box as Condon, and his team-first mentality elevated Georgia in 2024.

While the first-round pick in everyone’s draft isn’t the most important, especially in baseball. Cleveland Guardians picking #1 overall for the first time in franchise history is worth paying closer attention to, especially when there is no clear cut option at 1-1 as there has been in years past and the draft finally getting here in two weeks. The Guardians bonus slot at 1-1 is $10,570,600, though they are not expected to pay the full lot to any pick, as is almost always the case for anyone picking 1-1. Cleveland has $18,334,000 to spend in the full draft and they want to be able to use it on other picks as well.

Each week of the amateur baseball season in 2024, we updated the weekly stats of candidates all year and tried to look where they stood and give the stock watch on their likelihood of being the selection for the Guardians. Of course, none of that ever factored in the bonus situation, as that kind of talk started to heat up late in the season. Now that the games are done and agents and advisors are now doing the work to negotiate where these players will go and how much they’ll get, which will of course impact who the Guardians will take.

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So in addition to stats, we’ll give our final breakdown of the 1-1 watch list and put who we think ends up going where. If nothing changes the final week before the draft, we’ll leave it the same and only update it if major news impacts the stocks for these players.

End of June

2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State): 55 GP - .418/.581/.939, 16 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, 15 SB, 71 BB/32 K: Bazzana leaves a storied program at Oregon State as the single season or career leader in many different offensive categories. He came into 2024 looking to increase his power output with countless hours of work at Driveline to optimize his attack angle to get to more pull power and it paid off in games immediately for him. It led to more teams pitching around him, increasing his walk total. Of course, Bazzana also has a Cape Cod League MVP to back his performance up with the wood bat. Remember teams are also drafting traits more than they’re drafting player performance. Bazzana has a swing that is ready for pro ball, a good approach, and the necessary work ethic to match his talent that should help him get better. His long term position and growth are the question marks. There are some who think he can make the transition to the outfield, and with his work ethic, it would be unwise to bet against him. Most believe the floor is pick #4 for him, so his bonus demands won’t be the “lowest” the Guardians can offer, but they could go as high as $10M. His makeup and traits are exactly what Cleveland values and its been rumored Cleveland does indeed really like Bazzana.

RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest): 12 GS - 77.2 IP, 155 K/18 BB, 2.43 ERA: Burns got to Wake Forest via a transfer from eventual champion Tennessee. The Vols were using him in a hybrid role in 2023, and Burns wanted to concentrate on starting and working with Wake’s pitching lab to throw more strikes, optimize his delivery and improve his secondaries. Mission accomplished. He toned down some effort in his delivery late in the year and had some of the best whiff rates in college baseball on multiple of his offerings. Burns still runs a lot of relief risk due to lack of overall command, not quite having that level that Paul Skenes had a year ago and there is still some overall effort remaining in that delivery. His fastball, for as hard as he throws it, still got hit hard, but there were the sames concerns about Skenes’ fastball and he seems to have quelled those with pro coaching, so the same could be true for Burns. While he has probably three plus pitches, control, delivery and overall injury concerns might cloud Burns’ probability of going 1-1. His floor also appears to be pretty high, but his bonus demands probably come at the minimum of about $8.5M that could be attractive for Cleveland’s spread the money around strategy. However, this doesn’t seem like a strong year for a college pitcher to go 1-1, but there are those in the organization that are really impressed with Burns.

LHP/1B Jac Caglianone (Florida) .415/.525/.844, 4 2B, 29 HR, 41 BB/21 K; 62 IP, 68 K/44 BB, 4.35 ERA: No doubt that Caglianone had one of the best ever college seasons. He hit tons of homers, struck out less than a year ago and saw more walks, most of the intentional variety. Caglianone has had no problem finding the baseball with the barrel of the bat, even when the ball isn’t in the strike zone. He makes an absurd amount of contact for a player that chases the ball out of the zone a ton (38%). The power is very real, but can he make that level of chase rate work at the next level? It will only be harder to pull off as he faces better pitching and approach/swing decisions are the hardest thing to coach/improve. As a pitcher, Caglianone has serious arm talent, missing plenty of bats and throws up to 97 from the left side. However, his secondaries and control lag behind and most don’t view him as a two way player at the next level. His future is likely as a hitter, at first base. His positional value also clouds his future and potential at 1-1. There have been reports with Cleveland tied to him, but it’s hard to believe his chase rate and positional value are a fit at 1-1 for Cleveland’s normal approach. His floor is likely in the top 5 as well, which means his discount won’t be all that big and that will probably also put him on the lower end of probabilities. Caglianone also appears to have an impressive competitive desire, character and work ethic.

OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) .443/.558/1.043, 19 2B, 35 HR, 50 BB/39 K, 10 HBP - Condon won the Golden Spikes award for best college player for the 2024 season, and there’s no argument to made there. He pummeled homers and forced teams to pitch around him as well. He put in the work to be trusted to get chances at third base, centerfield and other outfield spots. The 6’5 slugger has long limbs but somehow manages to keep his swing short, he makes plenty of contact in the zone. He may have a hole in his swing up with heat, as a lot of long limbed slugger often do. He does have some interesting home/road splits that have made some question things a little and he may be best suited for a corner outfield spot or first base at the next level. Those things are his question marks, but also reportedly has the highest bonus demand. He doesn’t typically fit what Cleveland targets but he also has some traits they’ve been lacking in the system, but the bonus demand might also be a deterrent for their strategy.

OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .559/.690/.966, 13 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 47 BB, 10 K, 85 SB; 67.2 IP, 107 K, 26 BB, 0.72 ERA: The one high school player that Cleveland has been connected to is Griffin. He pitched and played shortstop in high school and was good at it both ways. He’s a position player to most at the next level, possibly as an outfield. He insists he can play short and will play wherever he’s asked to. He’s committed to LSU. There’s big power and speed, making Griffin one of, if not THE toolsiest player in the draft. Some believe he could be a 30/30 SS/OF. The question is the ability to make contact, and the history of prep players in Mississippi is questionable as well. He’s committed to LSU, which could prove to be a big one, but he should go in the top 10 or so. He has the most leverage in terms of bonus demands with his college commitment and is the top ranked prep player, but it’s hard to imagine Cleveland prioritizing paying him more money than what they would commit to one to the college options. That may make him the biggest wild card here.

INF JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): 36 G, .331/.472/.589, 8 2B, 8 HR, 30 BB/17 K - Coming into the season, Wetherholt was at the top of most boards due to his ability to hit and he was making the move to shortstop. He hurt his hamstring early in the year and missed quite a bit of time. After coming back, he was limited to DH for a bit but hit plenty once he got settled back in. He’s a little smaller and less built that Bazzana, but possess perhaps an even better hit tool and the two share similar batted ball data including contact rates, chase rates and exit velocity. Wetherholt has a better chance of playing a premium defensive position long term. Due to his injury and possibly having a lower floor in this draft, most peg him to accept the lower side of bonus demands ($8-$8.5M) which puts him in play, and that he was the probable 1-1 before the year and injury.

Justin’s ranking

Travis Bazzana

JJ Wetherholt

Charlie Condon

Jac Caglianone

Chase Burns

Comment: I’m going by what has been the connections mostly. I’ve been on Bazzana at 1-1 most of the season and I’m not changing now. I think they value Bazzana and Wetherholt very similarly and both of them have similar data to boot. I personally see more offensive upside for Bazzana in the majors than Wetherholt, plus less injury history. I would almost put the two’s odds at 50%/50% at this point over Condon or Caglianone, or anyone else. If it’s not 50%/50%, maybe it’s more 40%/40% if anything, but it’s going to come down to bonuses. My guess is Bazzana will get $9.5M and Wetherholt might take $8.5-$9M. Does Cleveland think the two are similar enough to save the $500,000-$1M? Very possible, but I also think there’s a chance they think it’s worth it to pay that money to Bazzana if they think he’s slightly better.

BA thinks Cleveland will go for the "just about as good and probably cheaper" INF JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): 36 G, .331/.472/.589, 8 2B, 8 HR, 30 BB/17 K -
NOT BECAUSE THEY"RE CHEAPSKATES but to have more $ of their allotment to sign other picks for above slot.
They can benefit from picking up some top notch pitchers as the system is currently, and unusually, dominated by position players

Coming into the season, Wetherholt was at the top of most boards due to his ability to hit and he was making the move to shortstop. He hurt his hamstring early in the year and missed quite a bit of time. After coming back, he was limited to DH for a bit but hit plenty once he got settled back in. He’s a little smaller and less built that Bazzana, but possess perhaps an even better hit tool and the two share similar batted ball data including contact rates, chase rates and exit velocity. Wetherholt has a better chance of playing a premium defensive position long term. Due to his injury and possibly having a lower floor in this draft, most peg him to accept the lower side of bonus demands ($8-$8.5M) which puts him in play, and that he was the probable 1-1 before the year and injury.

Bazzana or bust !

Steven Kwan agrees with you. Although he is biased as they are fellow Oregon State players. I was going to say stars, but Kwan was second or third fiddle to Adley Rutchman on their team

Bazzana is a generational player. Can not afford to save bonus money to possibly over pay slot for another player (pitcher). Could possibly move Giminez to SS in the future.

MLB.com writers on the draft

Who will go No. 1 overall in the Draft? Our experts predict the odds
July 9th, 2024
Jim Callis Jonathan Mayo Kenny Van Doren

With the MLB Draft Combine in the rearview mirror, time is ticking down to when the Guardians will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick on Sunday. The 2024 Draft will be broadcast live from Fort Worth, Texas, with a pregame show at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network and ESPN (as well as MLB.TV, MLB.com and in the MLB App) and the Draft at 7 p.m. ET. Every pick on Day 2 (Monday) and Day 3 (Tuesday) can be seen starting at 2 p.m. ET both days on MLB.TV, MLB.com and in the MLB App.
College prospects have moved front and center when it comes to who will be taken off the board first. MLB.com's Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo discussed the subject in more detail on the latest MLB Pipeline Podcast.

Top prospects:
1. Bazzana | 2. Condon | 3. Caglianone | 4. Wetherholt | 5. Smith | 6. Burns | 7. Kurtz | 8. Montgomery | 9. Griffin | 10. Rainer | 11. Yesavage | 12. Tibbs | 13. Moore | 14. Smith | 15. Caminiti

Although Oregon State's Travis Bazzana (MLB's No. 1 Draft prospect) and Georgia's Charlie Condon (No. 2) traded top Draft prospect status leading up to the event, they've both continued to gain momentum. Condon won the 2024 Golden Spikes Award over fellow top collegiate prospects Bazzana and Arkansas left-handed pitcher Hagan Smith (No. 5). But if there's going to be a pitcher taken No. 1 overall, Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns (No. 6) might have the edge.

Here are our experts' best estimations of the odds for every player with a real chance to be selected No. 1 overall:

Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
Callis 38% | Mayo 40%
Callis: "I do think he fits the model better than the other players. I do think there's some leverage because I don't think he goes until [No.] 4 if he doesn't go [No.] 1."

Mayo: "I still think that he is the favorite to go No. 1. I think that he's the kind of player the Guardians like, and I think when push comes to shove, they're going to find the right combination of this is the player they like and the money they're hoping to spend with that pick."

Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2)
Callis 26% | Mayo 23%
Callis: "One, I think he's the best player in the Draft, and he would make a lot of sense for the Guardians. I think they should take him No. 1. They have so much money they should just take the best player. And it's weird because you don't hear his name mentioned with them that much. ... Now I'm starting to think they are on him more then the lack of noise would indicate."

Mayo: "I could easily see it being the kind of thing where you don't hear about it much, and then they just go and take him. And it's not like they are putting other names out there to help his bargaining or negotiations or anything like that."

Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3)
Callis 8% | Mayo 11%
Callis: "I don't think it's impossible. I do think there's a possibility that he wants to go No. 1. I think he might be more open to a deal than say Charlie Condon would be, and that power would look nice in Cleveland. I don't really think it happens when it comes down to it."


JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia (No. 4)
Callis 27% | Mayo 25%
Callis: "I don't think there's that much difference in JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana as players. I think Bazzana has got a little more power. I think Wetherholt has got more speed and athleticism, more of a chance to play shortstop, but I don't really think he's a shortstop. ... Of all the guys we talked about, you could save the most money with JJ Wetherholt."



The rest of the field: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 5), Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 6), Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.) (No. 9)
Callis 1% | Mayo 1%
Mayo: "I came very close to leaving nothing on the table here for the field because I really don't see any scenario where it's not one of those four players."