![Image](https://connect-ucs.xfinity.com/proxy?source=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstackcdn.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_1100%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F80a04fd4-ac4d-4498-8647-ba5472656b1e_1100x230.png)
2024 MLB Draft 1.1 Stock Watch List - Week 11
JUSTIN LADA AND WILLIE HOOD
APR 30
While the first-round pick in everyone’s draft isn’t the most important, especially in baseball. Cleveland Guardians picking #1 overall for the first time in franchise history is worth paying closer attention to.
So at the end of each week, we’ll update some of the candidates’ names and stats from the past week and for the season. We will rank our current favorites, in order, to take #1 overall this July. We may add or subtract names from this list as the season goes on, depending on who we think deserves to be in the conversation.
Week 11
2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State) 1-9, HR, 3BB, 4K vs. Oregon (.412/.576/.932, 9 2B, 4 3B, 20 HR, 52 BB/21 K, 9 SB): A slower weekend for Bazzana coming back from being hit in the hand. He did homer and made some great plays on the defensive side of the ball, so there is that. Oregon is ranked, so at the least they’re a decent college team, no idea in the way of pro pitching prospects. But either way, one of the slower weekends for Bazzana all year. Up next is Washington State, not a big matchup for Bazzana, but hopefully his had will be healthier.
https://x.com/Pac12Network/status/1784039666674512099
RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest) 7IP, 4H, 3ER, 2BB, 14K, 2 HRA vs. Notre Dame (69IP, 127 K/21 BB, 3.26 ERA): Notre Dame isn’t much of an opponent these days, and Burns had no problems missing bats but did allow three runs. He’s still a top tier arm with a lot of risk but as the year goes on, it seems more unlikely he’d go 1-1.
https://x.com/CollegeBaseCNT/status/1783957059043533132
LHP/1B Jac Caglianone (Florida) 3-10, HR, 4 BB/1 K; 4IP, 6H, 3ER, 3BB, 4K v. Arkansas; (.404/.502/.871, 2 2B, 26 HR, 28 BB/15 K, 48.1IP, 58 K/35 BB, 4.10 ERA): Another solid weekend for Caglianone where all four of his walks were intentional, which is probably going to keep happening a lot more at this point. He didn’t manage a hit against Hagen Smith, though he didn’t strikeout either. On the mound, it was another inconsistent performance. At this point, he’s a bat first prospect, which means he’s a 1B only, which also increases his risk profile.
https://x.com/JacobRudner/status/1784353071017185334
OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) 5-12, 3 HR, BB, 3 K vs. Texas A&M (.461/.567/1.090, 16 2B, 29 HR, 37 BB/34 K): Condon broke Georgia’s single season record for homers in a year and then broke the career record as well all in the same weekend, facing one of the best team’s in the country. His record-tying homer came off of likely top 50-60 pick Ryan Prager, which is one of the better arms he’s seen this year, even if Prager lacks high end stuff. Still, he’s crushing the ball. We are learning more about his issues with breaking stuff and a middling chase rate, but he still is one of the best 2-3 hitters in this class.
https://x.com/JL_Baseball/status/1783996420447514785
OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .582/.718/1.040, 12 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 45 BB, 9 K, 78 SB, 55 IP, 91 K/18 BB, 0.64 ERA: Griffin continues to put up video game numbers in the Mississippi high school ranks, though the level of competition out there in past years has been a question. He’s still in play to be one of the first two prep players off the board and has some of the most upside potential in the class of anyone.
https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1784396498261950913
1B Nick Kurtz (Wake Forest) 2-9, 2B, HR, 4 BB, 2 K vs. Notre Dame (.307/.500/.811, 8 2B, 18 HR, 47 BB/26 K): Kurtz didn’t have a ton of hits against Notre Dame, who again, isn’t the best of competition, but they were both extra base hits. Only one of his free passes was intentional but the more data we’re learning about suggests his chase rate is among the top in the class and his exit velocities are as good as anyone’s and his contact rates are in line with other top hitters in this class, outside of Bazzana.
https://x.com/Wake_Analytics/status/1784630784135184831
OF Braden Montgomery (Texas A&M): 5-11, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 5 K vs. Georgia (.376/.514/.885, 13 2B, 23 HR, 44 BB/37 K): Georgia lacks some big end arms this year but Montgomery did the damage you’d hope to see either way. Five strikeouts in 14 plate appearances in a small sample is a little difficult, but he does have contact and chase rates that are a bit below where everyone else on this list is, minus Caglianone’s chase rate. But one of his homers was off of a 94 MPH fastball on the outside part of the plate, so velocity wasn’t an issue there, though you can sit on fastball’s more in college. Either way, it was a great swing and Montgomery still has 1-1 sleeper upside.
https://x.com/d1baseball/status/1784328525157212450
LHP Hagen Smith (Arkansas): 7 IP, 2H, 1 R (O ER), 11 K, 1BB vs. Florida (60IP, 111 K/23 BB, 1.35 ERA): Another dominant performance for Smith, who continues to thrive against everyone, even in this highly offensive environment in 2024. Cutting down on the walks was good to see for Smith as well, which has been the only thing to point to at times in his 2024 run, aside from already having TJS. If you’re looking for an arm that actually could go 1-1, Smith has a non-zero chance.
https://x.com/RazorbackBSB/status/1784016767293215009
SS/2B JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): 3-9, 2B, HR, 6 BB, 2 K vs. Baylor (.328/.506/.569, 5 2B, 3 HR, 20 BB/8 K, 3 SB): It was a solid weekend for Wetherholt who is probably still on the outside looking in now with the time missed and other performances leaping what he can do with the bat, even though he might be the only up the middle talent, but we still don’t know if there’s enough evidence he can play short.
https://x.com/WVUBaseball/status/1783999587084128263
Justin’s ranking
Travis Bazzana
Charlie Condon
Braden Montgomery
Hagen Smith
Nick Kurtz
In next:
Jac Caglianone, Bryce Rainer, Chase Burns, Konnor Griffin
Comment: My top 5 at this point is more representative of what I think the Guardians will do, which is what this exercise was supposed to be to begin with. Bazzana continues to be the safer offensive/overall talent among this group. Condon offers more power, but does have a few more risks with the bat and position, but still offers a pretty good package in terms of power and proximity to the majors (though Bazzana would beat him to the majors in most cases). Montgomery might have more upside than both of them, however has more swing and miss in his bat than even Condon. I’ve moved up Smith in my rankings again, because I think he’s the next most likely pick if they decide to go with an arm. I have Kurtz over Caglianone in the five because I think Kurtz’s metrics more align with what the Guardians would prefer. I don’t think they’d go with either if I’m being honest, but both Kurtz and Caglianone are first baseman, and if you were to take that position, Kurtz is the safer bet with upside, even if Caglianone has the higher upside overall of the two.
Willie ranking
Charlie Condon
Travis Bazzana
Braden Montgomery
Nick Kurtz
Jac Caglianone
Comment:
Charlie Condon sits atop most boards. It's no different here. His ability to hit in one of the better conferences while producing massive power (29 homers) continues to be impressive. While Condon appears to be re-writing history books in Athens, GA it seems it's going around college baseball. The obsession for offense seems to have hit the college baseball world as questions about juiced bats and balls emerge. We've seen Cleveland diverge from their previous history a bit, but the big league club is finding success, and run production with holistic play over pure emphasis on power.
Warning:
(Parental discretion is advised) some Charlie Condon fans will think I have declared war on his prospective selection and their fandom with the following comments. Indeed, that is not the objective this week. Instead, I offer fact driven logical analysis of the current 1.1 appraisal.
Travis Bazzana is the combination of parts for the Guardians draft. Plate discipline, Cape Cod tools, left-handedness, professionalism, and polish. He is the epitome of what Cleveland drafts in hitters. An easy comparison in terms of production and value Travis Bazzana is the Jose Ramirez of college baseball. This is not an emotional fan based commentary. Rather fact based opinion. That said, he is likely 1.1 on draft day but it will come down to his price and the team's belief in his ability to (likely) transition to another position. Before that gets stuck in your crawl he does have outfield experience. That said, is it wise to draft a player you need to switch to another position?
Braden Montgomery continues to rake mashing from both sides of the plate. Montgomery added another homer this weekend. He's shown off plus power from both sides. In fact, he is producing XBH hits at a higher clip (60%) than anyone in this top 5, minus Nick Kurtz (68%). “Monty” is somehow underrated even as a top talent. The young native Iowan is one of the youngest college bats available coupled with plus power from both sides. He is a tremendous athlete sometimes shown up by college teammate Jace LaViolette (potential 1.1 in 2025). There's a general belief among some of the writers and evaluators I've spoken with that Montgomery could play CF. He's a premium athlete with an unquestionably strong RF arm.
Nick Kurtz would be the top hitter in this draft class if not for a slow start and missing a few weeks in this writer's opinion. He makes consistent contact (82%) without the chase (14%). Add double plus power and positional value is the only knock here. How much does his positional value hold him back and what's his price?
Finally, last but not least is Gators enigma Jac Caglianone. He's hitting over .400 with 25 homers (last checked). “Cags” has nearly twice as many walks as punchouts but the deep dive on numbers tells another story. He's running a contact rate around 78% and a more concerning chase rate around 38%. The lefty has been dominant on the mound with upper-90s velocity and an emerging CH. That makes him a perplexing case. Is he a power bat or power pitcher, can he be both?
Just missed:
Hagen Smith, Konnor Griffin, Chase Burns, JJ Wetherholt, Bryce Rainer, Trey Yesavage, Slade Caldwell
<