2024 MLB Draft 1.1 Stock Watch List - Week 11

JUSTIN LADA AND WILLIE HOOD

APR 30

While the first-round pick in everyone’s draft isn’t the most important, especially in baseball. Cleveland Guardians picking #1 overall for the first time in franchise history is worth paying closer attention to.

So at the end of each week, we’ll update some of the candidates’ names and stats from the past week and for the season. We will rank our current favorites, in order, to take #1 overall this July. We may add or subtract names from this list as the season goes on, depending on who we think deserves to be in the conversation.

Week 11

2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State) 1-9, HR, 3BB, 4K vs. Oregon (.412/.576/.932, 9 2B, 4 3B, 20 HR, 52 BB/21 K, 9 SB): A slower weekend for Bazzana coming back from being hit in the hand. He did homer and made some great plays on the defensive side of the ball, so there is that. Oregon is ranked, so at the least they’re a decent college team, no idea in the way of pro pitching prospects. But either way, one of the slower weekends for Bazzana all year. Up next is Washington State, not a big matchup for Bazzana, but hopefully his had will be healthier.

https://x.com/Pac12Network/status/1784039666674512099

RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest) 7IP, 4H, 3ER, 2BB, 14K, 2 HRA vs. Notre Dame (69IP, 127 K/21 BB, 3.26 ERA): Notre Dame isn’t much of an opponent these days, and Burns had no problems missing bats but did allow three runs. He’s still a top tier arm with a lot of risk but as the year goes on, it seems more unlikely he’d go 1-1.

https://x.com/CollegeBaseCNT/status/1783957059043533132

LHP/1B Jac Caglianone (Florida) 3-10, HR, 4 BB/1 K; 4IP, 6H, 3ER, 3BB, 4K v. Arkansas; (.404/.502/.871, 2 2B, 26 HR, 28 BB/15 K, 48.1IP, 58 K/35 BB, 4.10 ERA): Another solid weekend for Caglianone where all four of his walks were intentional, which is probably going to keep happening a lot more at this point. He didn’t manage a hit against Hagen Smith, though he didn’t strikeout either. On the mound, it was another inconsistent performance. At this point, he’s a bat first prospect, which means he’s a 1B only, which also increases his risk profile.

https://x.com/JacobRudner/status/1784353071017185334

OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) 5-12, 3 HR, BB, 3 K vs. Texas A&M (.461/.567/1.090, 16 2B, 29 HR, 37 BB/34 K): Condon broke Georgia’s single season record for homers in a year and then broke the career record as well all in the same weekend, facing one of the best team’s in the country. His record-tying homer came off of likely top 50-60 pick Ryan Prager, which is one of the better arms he’s seen this year, even if Prager lacks high end stuff. Still, he’s crushing the ball. We are learning more about his issues with breaking stuff and a middling chase rate, but he still is one of the best 2-3 hitters in this class.

https://x.com/JL_Baseball/status/1783996420447514785

OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .582/.718/1.040, 12 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 45 BB, 9 K, 78 SB, 55 IP, 91 K/18 BB, 0.64 ERA: Griffin continues to put up video game numbers in the Mississippi high school ranks, though the level of competition out there in past years has been a question. He’s still in play to be one of the first two prep players off the board and has some of the most upside potential in the class of anyone.

https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1784396498261950913

1B Nick Kurtz (Wake Forest) 2-9, 2B, HR, 4 BB, 2 K vs. Notre Dame (.307/.500/.811, 8 2B, 18 HR, 47 BB/26 K): Kurtz didn’t have a ton of hits against Notre Dame, who again, isn’t the best of competition, but they were both extra base hits. Only one of his free passes was intentional but the more data we’re learning about suggests his chase rate is among the top in the class and his exit velocities are as good as anyone’s and his contact rates are in line with other top hitters in this class, outside of Bazzana.

https://x.com/Wake_Analytics/status/1784630784135184831

OF Braden Montgomery (Texas A&M): 5-11, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 5 K vs. Georgia (.376/.514/.885, 13 2B, 23 HR, 44 BB/37 K): Georgia lacks some big end arms this year but Montgomery did the damage you’d hope to see either way. Five strikeouts in 14 plate appearances in a small sample is a little difficult, but he does have contact and chase rates that are a bit below where everyone else on this list is, minus Caglianone’s chase rate. But one of his homers was off of a 94 MPH fastball on the outside part of the plate, so velocity wasn’t an issue there, though you can sit on fastball’s more in college. Either way, it was a great swing and Montgomery still has 1-1 sleeper upside.

https://x.com/d1baseball/status/1784328525157212450

LHP Hagen Smith (Arkansas): 7 IP, 2H, 1 R (O ER), 11 K, 1BB vs. Florida (60IP, 111 K/23 BB, 1.35 ERA): Another dominant performance for Smith, who continues to thrive against everyone, even in this highly offensive environment in 2024. Cutting down on the walks was good to see for Smith as well, which has been the only thing to point to at times in his 2024 run, aside from already having TJS. If you’re looking for an arm that actually could go 1-1, Smith has a non-zero chance.

https://x.com/RazorbackBSB/status/1784016767293215009

SS/2B JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): 3-9, 2B, HR, 6 BB, 2 K vs. Baylor (.328/.506/.569, 5 2B, 3 HR, 20 BB/8 K, 3 SB): It was a solid weekend for Wetherholt who is probably still on the outside looking in now with the time missed and other performances leaping what he can do with the bat, even though he might be the only up the middle talent, but we still don’t know if there’s enough evidence he can play short.

https://x.com/WVUBaseball/status/1783999587084128263

Justin’s ranking

Travis Bazzana
Charlie Condon
Braden Montgomery
Hagen Smith
Nick Kurtz

In next:

Jac Caglianone, Bryce Rainer, Chase Burns, Konnor Griffin

Comment: My top 5 at this point is more representative of what I think the Guardians will do, which is what this exercise was supposed to be to begin with. Bazzana continues to be the safer offensive/overall talent among this group. Condon offers more power, but does have a few more risks with the bat and position, but still offers a pretty good package in terms of power and proximity to the majors (though Bazzana would beat him to the majors in most cases). Montgomery might have more upside than both of them, however has more swing and miss in his bat than even Condon. I’ve moved up Smith in my rankings again, because I think he’s the next most likely pick if they decide to go with an arm. I have Kurtz over Caglianone in the five because I think Kurtz’s metrics more align with what the Guardians would prefer. I don’t think they’d go with either if I’m being honest, but both Kurtz and Caglianone are first baseman, and if you were to take that position, Kurtz is the safer bet with upside, even if Caglianone has the higher upside overall of the two.

Willie ranking

Charlie Condon
Travis Bazzana
Braden Montgomery
Nick Kurtz
Jac Caglianone

Comment:

Charlie Condon sits atop most boards. It's no different here. His ability to hit in one of the better conferences while producing massive power (29 homers) continues to be impressive. While Condon appears to be re-writing history books in Athens, GA it seems it's going around college baseball. The obsession for offense seems to have hit the college baseball world as questions about juiced bats and balls emerge. We've seen Cleveland diverge from their previous history a bit, but the big league club is finding success, and run production with holistic play over pure emphasis on power.

Warning:

(Parental discretion is advised) some Charlie Condon fans will think I have declared war on his prospective selection and their fandom with the following comments. Indeed, that is not the objective this week. Instead, I offer fact driven logical analysis of the current 1.1 appraisal.

Travis Bazzana is the combination of parts for the Guardians draft. Plate discipline, Cape Cod tools, left-handedness, professionalism, and polish. He is the epitome of what Cleveland drafts in hitters. An easy comparison in terms of production and value Travis Bazzana is the Jose Ramirez of college baseball. This is not an emotional fan based commentary. Rather fact based opinion. That said, he is likely 1.1 on draft day but it will come down to his price and the team's belief in his ability to (likely) transition to another position. Before that gets stuck in your crawl he does have outfield experience. That said, is it wise to draft a player you need to switch to another position?

Braden Montgomery continues to rake mashing from both sides of the plate. Montgomery added another homer this weekend. He's shown off plus power from both sides. In fact, he is producing XBH hits at a higher clip (60%) than anyone in this top 5, minus Nick Kurtz (68%). “Monty” is somehow underrated even as a top talent. The young native Iowan is one of the youngest college bats available coupled with plus power from both sides. He is a tremendous athlete sometimes shown up by college teammate Jace LaViolette (potential 1.1 in 2025). There's a general belief among some of the writers and evaluators I've spoken with that Montgomery could play CF. He's a premium athlete with an unquestionably strong RF arm.

Nick Kurtz would be the top hitter in this draft class if not for a slow start and missing a few weeks in this writer's opinion. He makes consistent contact (82%) without the chase (14%). Add double plus power and positional value is the only knock here. How much does his positional value hold him back and what's his price?

Finally, last but not least is Gators enigma Jac Caglianone. He's hitting over .400 with 25 homers (last checked). “Cags” has nearly twice as many walks as punchouts but the deep dive on numbers tells another story. He's running a contact rate around 78% and a more concerning chase rate around 38%. The lefty has been dominant on the mound with upper-90s velocity and an emerging CH. That makes him a perplexing case. Is he a power bat or power pitcher, can he be both?

Just missed:

Hagen Smith, Konnor Griffin, Chase Burns, JJ Wetherholt, Bryce Rainer, Trey Yesavage, Slade Caldwell

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Is a Georgia draft prospect separating himself in the race to become the Guardians’ No. 1 pick?

Updated: May. 01, 2024, 6:14 p.m.|Published: May. 01, 2024, 6:12 p.m.

By Joe Noga, cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio — Scouts and observers believe Charlie Condon of Georgia is beginning to separate himself from the competition in the race to be the Guardians’ No. 1 overall pick at Major League Baseball’s draft in July.

Coming off a weekend that saw him move past Gordon Beckham to break Georgia’s all-time home run record, Condon smashed another homer Tuesday against Kennesaw State to give him an NCAA-best 30 this season. The right-handed slugger also leads Division I hitters with a .456 average and an astounding 1.088 slugging percentage.

Baseball America and MLB Pipeline have Condon at the top of their draft rankings, and the 6-foot-6, 216-pounder continues to put up gaudy numbers in order to keep himself there. One scout compared Condon to Yankees superstar Aaron Judge, telling ESPN’s Mark Schlabach that he is a “unicorn” whose skill set makes him a “generational college player.”

Condon has spent the majority of this season moving around to multiple defensive positions, including third base, first base and all three outfield spots. Baseball America contributor Carlos Collazo said last week on the Hot Sheet podcast that Condon’s positional versatility could help him maintain his grasp on the top spot.

“Scouts have thought he’s looked pretty good moving around the field,” Collazo said. “This offensive profile at a corner outfield position makes you a little bit more excited than if you knew for sure he has to play first base. He’s going to get drafted based on the hitting ability and the power, but the fact that you can play him in a number of different positions makes the package that much more appealing.”

Condon, a redshirt sophomore, and Florida first baseman/pitcher Jac Caglianone have been battling it out to be the top power hitter on college baseball since the start of the season. Caglianone, a lefty as a known commodity entering the season after he slugged 33 home runs and was named a Golden Spikes Award finalist as well as a first team All-SEC performer last year.

But Condon’s arrival on the scene was a bit more unexpected. The Marietta, Georgia native was not heavily recruited out of high school and nearly signed to play football and baseball at a small school in Tennessee. After sitting out his freshman year at Georgia, Condon hit .386 with 30 home runs and a 1.284 OPS last year, earning National Freshman of the Year honors from publications such as Collegiate Baseball, Baseball America and D1Baseball.com.

Condon continues his assault on the Georgia record books and the NCAA leaderboards this weekend when Vanderbilt visits Foley Field in Athens, Ga. before visiting South Carolina the following week. At .68 home runs per game, Condon is on pace to surpass Caglianone’s record of 33 home runs set last season, the most in Division I baseball since the BBCOR bat standard went into effect in 2011.

Oklahoma State’s Pete Incaviglia slugged 48 homers in 75 games in 1985 for the NCAA record prior to BBCOR. Incaviglia’s 100 homer total remains the career mark.

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2024 MLB Draft 1.1 Stock Watch List -

JUSTIN LADA AND WILLIE HOOD

MAY 7

Week 12

2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State) 5-9, 2B, 3 HR, 6 BB/2 K, 2/2 SB vs. Washington State (.422/.587/.981, 10 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, 12 SB):

Bazzana is on a heater right now. He has five homers in his last two games (he hit two on Monday vs. Gonzaga in a ridiculous 20-13 game that just shows how bad college pitching is this year, especially on non-weekend matchups). Still, he’s showing more serious raw power in his swings and is driving the ball to all fields. He’s not letting off the gas on his performance. In two weeks, he’ll face Arizona, which is probably the best PAC-12 pitching he’ll see, so wait on that.

https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1787619690220499316

RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest) 6IP, 0H, 0R, 2BB, 13K v. Western Carolina (75IP, 140 K/23 BB, 3.00 ERA):

Western Carolina isn’t exactly a big name opponent and nobody on that team has probably ever seen anyone like Chase Burns, and he pitched like it, overpowering performance and still in line for the top pitcher off the board.

https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1786924494566703280

LHP/1B Jac Caglianone (Florida) 5-9, 1 BB/1 K vs. Tennessee (.410/.511/.847, 2 2B, 26 HR, 30 BB/17 K); 5IP, 4 ER, 5 K/2 BB vs. Tennessee (53.1 IP, 63 K/37 BB, 4.39 ERA):

Caglianone went a solid 5-9 against an OK Tennessee pitching staff but produced zero power against them. He was very average pitching wise against a good Tennessee lineup as well. It’s a fine weekend, but nothing special. It’s more and more clear he’s a first baseman only at the next level.

OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) 6-10, 3 HR, 4 BB/0 K (1 IBB) vs. Vanderbilt; (.459/.568/1.105, 16 2B, 33 HR, 41 BB/35 K):

Condon has homered in seven straight games now and is going to hit 40 homers this year. The history of D1 college 40 homer hitters is dubious (out of five players, only Pete Incavilia and Lance Berkman went on to have good MLB careers). But he continues to mash and this was a decent one against a solid Vanderbilt pitching staff.

https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1787200428020502686

OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .582/.718/1.040, 12 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 45 BB, 9 K, 78 SB, 55 IP, 91 K/18 BB, 0.64 ERA:

Griffin continues to put up video game numbers in the Mississippi high school ranks, though the level of competition out there in past years has been a question. He’s still in play to be one of the first two prep players off the board and has some of the most upside potential in the class of anyone.

https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1784396498261950913

1B Nick Kurtz (Wake Forest): 6-11, 2 2B, HR, RBI, BB, 2 K vs. Western Carolina (.324/.532/.820, 10 2B, 19 HR, 49 RBI, 58 BB/29 K):

Not a particularly strong weekend for Kurtz vs. weaker competition. His lone homer came on Sunday too. An interesting matchup with Clemson awaits this weekend. A strong end of the season will go a long way for his stock.

https://x.com/WakeBaseball/status/1787244556444225661

OF Braden Montgomery (Texas A&M): 0-13, 3 BB, 6 K vs. LSU (.339/.481/.798, 13 2B, 23 HR, 47 BB/26 K):

A rough weekend from Montgomery against what was supposed to be an underwhelming LSU pitching squad. But the starters were OK against Montgomery and the rest of his good lineup at A&M. He’s got a chance to be a good big leaguer, but at 1-1, the red flags are showing a little much of a risk in series like this.

LHP Hagen Smith (Arkansas): 6IP, 3H, ER, 14 K/2 BB vs. Kentucky; (66 IP, 29 H, 125 K/25 BB, 1.36 ERA):

Kentucky is a pretty solid college lineup with at least one day one MLB draft hitter and a few more draftable hitters overall. Smith dominated again. Nobody has been able to touch him this year. Which says a lot due to the highly offensively charged college hitting environment this year. Bats are safer but a pitcher dominating those bats when the bats are dominating every weekend sure makes the conversation interesting.

https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1786566392961019993

SS/2B JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): 4-10, 2B, BB, SB vs. Cincinnati; (.347/.500/.569, 7 2B, 2 HR, 21 BB/8 K, 4 SB):

Overall the rate numbers are solid for Wetherholt, he just doesn’t have the volume. Reports suggest that his hamstring is still bothering him and he’s not at 100%. Hitting like this not at 100% is impressive. But probably too many other choices at this point to consider at 1-1 even with Wetherholt would give the Guardians a massive bonus discount at that spot.

https://x.com/burkegranger/status/1787560182098051542

Justin’s ranking

Travis Bazzana
Charlie Condon
Braden Montgomery
Hagen Smith
Nick Kurtz

In next:

Chase Burns, Jac Caglianone, Bryce Rainer, Konnor Griffin

Comment:

No reason for change for me this week. I’m still ranking based on what I think the Guardians will do, and Bazzana has given no reason not to be the pick. He’s showing power and improvements on top of what he did at the Cape in 2023, which nobody else here can top. There’s real world, upside and quick to the majors talent here and some safety baked in that nobody else here offers. Condon is a great prospect and should have a good major league career, but the impact and safety combination of Bazzana is why I stay there. I could have moved Smith ahead of Montgomery, and maybe I should, but the everyday aspect of Montgomery and tools, plus even with his swing and miss I still think will be an impact player too. Which is more safety that Smith offers already being a pitcher and a TJ survivor. I did move up Chase Burns into my “next in” list over Caglianone because I think I would personally take Burns over Caglianone too due to impact of being a power pitcher that is holding stuff and velocity in games over a first baseman that’s power with chase only. And for high schoolers, I still prefer Rainer to Griffin, but I think both are near zero shot at this point.

Willie ranking

Charlie Condon
Travis Bazzana
Hagen Smith
Braden Montgomery
Nick Kurtz

Comment:

Charlie Condon holds on to the top spot with scorching 32 home runs. What more can you say, it's an impressive performance at the dish. He continues to push mistakes and shows off 70-grade power potential. Can we talk about the Charlie Condon fan club being built down the left field line at Progressive Field?

Travis Bazzana maybe down-under (bad dad joke, sorry, not sorry) Charlie Condon in terms of numerical rankings but truth be told I'd call him 1.1 B comfortably and note he is the odds on favorite to 1.1 in my book. It's not just the performance and polish, it's the professionalism and preparation he puts into his game. Oh, and the 5 HRs on the heals of Cinco de Mayo make him all the more endearing.

Before you (yes, you) think this writer is obsessively gushing over those two let's introduce Hagen Smith into the equation. The left-hander has set himself apart not only by performance but also through his consistency. Smith's numbers parallel those of Paul Skenes a year ago. In a ‘hot bat & bouncy ball’ offensive economy maybe, just maybe it makes sense to consider a fast track potential left-handed ace. It's noteworthy that he's already met the MLB pre-requisite TJ surgery as a high schooler.

Hanging around the top tier of talent Braden Montgomery has shown improved plate discipline with more walks than punchouts and an impressive 60% XBH rate.

The only thing holding Nick Kurtz from being higher on these rankings is positional value. In case you don't know, his contact and chase rates meet those of Travis Bazzana and his XBH hit rate (68%) stands alone among the top hitters in the class.

Just missed:

Konnor Griffin, JJ Wetherholt, Jac Caglianone, James Tibbs, Chase Burns, Bryce Rainer, Trey Yesavage, Slade Caldwell

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You don't want Condon?

No I do not. Travis has always been a star. Condon is very good but Travis has been doing it far longer.

Travis has produced with a wooden bat.

Travis has produced with a wooden bat.

Good point.

I like Condon. Nice frame at 6-6 and 213 lbs to work with. Room to add some bulk and more strength. He's got a very nice stroke

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Draft prospect Condon hits 34th HR, most in D1 since 2011

Georgia slugger goes deep in 8th straight game

By Ben Weinrib @benweinrib

May 10, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/status/1788736291791847678

The top prospect in the 2024 Draft has solidified his status as the premier power in college baseball's bat-ball coefficient of restitution era.

Georgia slugger Charlie Condon launched his 34th home run of the season in Thursday's 14-10 win over South Carolina, which marked the highest single-season total since the NCAA instituted BBCOR bats in 2011.

Not only that, but the 21-year-old's record-breaking roundtripper extended his homer streak to eight games. That's one shy of the all-time NCAA mark, which Jac Caglianone, the No. 3 Draft prospect who racked up 33 long balls last season, tied earlier in April.

Condon has been the paragon of power in Georgia's lineup all season, and Thursday's game exemplified his campaign.

The third baseman crushed an RBI double to left-center field at 107 mph in the first inning and then jumped on the first pitch of his second plate appearance, a low fastball, to wallop the historic dinger 428 feet at 105 mph. After that, South Carolina didn't give him much to hit, as he walked twice (once intentionally) and popped out twice.

The sophomore has been downright dominant, leading Division I in batting average (.459) and slugging percentage (1.114) while ranking third in on-base percentage (.570). To state it plainly, he's been so productive that a single would lower his slugging percentage. When he's not mashing, he's displayed excellent plate discipline, as his two free passes increased his walk-to-strikeout ratio to 62/35, with 20 of those walks intentional.

Condon is following up an impressive 2023 campaign in which he set an SEC freshman record with 25 homers. This season, he's further tapped into his power by routinely elevating the ball. He's hitting it on the ground less (27.3 percent heading into Thursday's game) and in the air more (54 percent) while converting an astonishing 40.7 percent of his fly balls into home runs, the fifth-best rate in Division I.

The native of Marietta, Ga., still has five more regular-season games left to play before the SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament, so he's expected to further pad that home-run total. After all, he's gone deep in 26 of his 48 games so far.

And whether or not he becomes the No. 1 overall Draft pick on July 14, he's already No. 1 in the record books.

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Could Condon be the second coming of Bryce Harper?

Who is a comp for Bazzana?

Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci compared Bazzana's game to D-backs sensation Corbin Carroll, with both being smaller left-handed hitters ...

I will be fine with Condon or Bazzana but I think Bazzana is the safer prospect. For some reason I like Oregon State prospects !

for some reason? might Steven Kwan be one of those reasons?

Yes, Steve Kwan and Adley Rutschman (Baltimore).