What’s with the Cleveland Indians drafting all these college pitchers? Terry Pluto
Updated Jul 13, 2021; Posted Jul 13, 2021
A FUTURE TRIBE STARTER
Mississippi starting pitcher Doug Nikhazy celebrates as he strikes out the last batter of the seventh inning against Florida State in an NCAA college baseball tournament regional game. The lefty had a 12-2 record and 2.45 ERA this season. AP
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By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer
CLEVELAND, Ohio – Ten pitchers?
The Tribe drafted 10 college pitchers in their first 11 picks? How can a team needing outfielders do that?
I received a few emails from Tribe fans asking me some version of that question.
I admit, I love college pitchers near the top of the draft – especially for the Indians, who know what to do with these guys. But 10 does seem excessive.
“College pitching was the strength of this draft,” said Tribe scouting director Scott Barnsby. “We really did plan to take the best player available. It didn’t mean we didn’t look at position players. It wasn’t the plan going in. But as the best player available, this group of pitchers lined up on our board.”
Another Tribe source told me they were prepared a few times to take a position player, only to see that player selected a few picks before their turn. This is not like other drafts, where you can trade picks to move up.
WHAT IS THE BIG PLAN?
Consider what the Tribe has done best for more than a decade – develop pitchers.
Nearly all have been college pitchers. Some came in trades from other teams (Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger). Some were drafted (Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Josh Tomlin, Cody Allen, James Karinchak).
My guess is the Tribe subscribes to the gospel of “You can never have enough pitching.” Or as manager Terry Francona once said: “When you think you have too much pitching, get more.”
The onslaught of injuries this season demonstrates how most teams need more pitching. Think about how the advantageous position of having a wealth of starting pitching – even in the minors – puts a team in position to make trades.
Research has shown a few points in this area:
1. The hardest thing for a team to do is sign and develop viable MLB starting pitchers.
2. The most expensive commodity in free agency and via trade often is established starting pitching.
3. Pitching prospects with some success in the minors are highly valued on the trade market.
The Tribe used three of their five draft picks in 2020 on college pitchers. As I wrote Monday, first-rounder Logan T. Allen has already moved up to Class AA Akron. Second-rounder Tanner Burns is probably not far behind as he’s pitching well at High-A Lake County.
MADE A BIG JUMP
Cleveland drafted Nick Sandlin in the second round in 2018 and he opened the season with the Tribe. cleveland.com
THEY CAN MOVE UP FAST
If you look at the Tribe’s rotation, the top three are Bieber, Civale and Plesac. All were drafted in 2016. All three were in the rotation by the middle of 2019.
Karinchak is a key part of the bullpen. He was drafted in the ninth round of 2017 and in the majors by the end of the 2019 season. The Tribe picked Nick Sandlin (Southern Mississippi, second round) in 2018. He made the opening-day roster this season.
Looking at some of the pitchers drafted by the Tribe, you can see at least a few arriving in Cleveland within a few years.
Former Tribe assistant GM Dan O’Dowd worked the draft for MLB Network. He said Tribe first-rounder Gavin Williams (East Carolina), “Can be the absolute best pitcher taken in this draft.”
Ole Miss product Doug Nikhazy had a 24-6 record and 2.81 ERA in his college career. He’s a first-team All-American and just a big-time college pitcher.
In the third round, they picked Florida’s Tommy Mace.
MLB.com wrote: ”Mace didn’t have the flashiest year on paper last season, pitching to a 4.38 ERA, but his metrics are what are the most intriguing. The Indians have proven to be well above average at finding optimal pitchers to groom into successful big leaguers, and having those types of eye-catching metrics are what the organization is always looking for.”
The Tribe has the reputation of knowing the kind of pitchers they want to draft because they know how to develop them. Last year, O’Dowd told me Cleveland “was the best at developing pitchers” in all of baseball right now.
WHO REALLY KNOWS?
I haven’t seen these guys pitch. Nor has the vast majority of fans or those of us in the media writing about the draft.
But I do know the Tribe values college pitchers who are smart and have good control. They must have at least a 90-92 mph fastball. But they don’t need to light up the radar gun – although top pick Gavin Williams does that as he’s hit 100 mph this season.
Looking at some of the information on the Tribe’s lower-round picks, I’m intrigued by Rodney Boone. He went to UC-Santa Barbara (the school of Bieber and Kyle Nelson), where the eighth-rounder had a 21-5 career record and 2.52 ERA, striking out 11 per nine innings.
Fangraphs wrote this about Boone: “Boone managed to strike out 127 hitters in 98 innings this year while sitting just 86-88. His fastball has huge carry and a flat approach angle that helps it play at the top of the strike zone, and Boone peppers that area with it consistently. Boone also has a bat-missing secondary in his parachute changeup, an odd pitch that seems to float around the strike zone. ... Boone can also land his curveball for a strike. ... He’s a candidate to add velocity after college because of how fluid and flexible his delivery is.”
Fifth rounder Tanner Bibee from Cal-Fullerton had 6-6 record and 3.61 ERA for a team that was 20-35 this season. Bibee walked only 2.1 per nine innings.
I’m just tossing out names. They picked Georgia’s Ryan Webb in the fourth round. He was a projected second-rounder before hurting his arm in the spring and having Tommy John surgery in May.
In the past, the Tribe took Vinnie Pestano and Plesac after they had Tommy John surgery and that worked. The miss was Brady Aiken, the team’s first-rounder in 2015 who never came back after the operation to pitch effectively.
Will it work out? Who knows? But the odds of finding at least a few big-league starters from this group of college pitchers from top programs puts the odds in the Tribe’s favor.