Why didn’t the Guardians just keep Josh Naylor for 2025? The week in baseball
Updated: Jan. 04, 2025, 10:43 a.m.|Published: Jan. 04, 2025, 5:30 a.m.
By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Josh Naylor trade is done, but thoughts on it still linger.
The big one is this:
Naylor, a free agent at the end of the 2025 season, is projected to make $12 million in arbitration. His agent is scheduled to file his salary request for the upcoming season on Jan. 9, while his new team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, counters with their offer.
A few moments after the Guardians traded Naylor to Arizona, the news that they’d signed Carlos Santana to a one-year $12 million deal broke. This will be Santana’s third tour with the Guardians. He’s hit 324 home runs in his career and last year won a Gold Glove for his play at first base with the Twins.
The big difference in the exchange of first basemen is age. The switch-hitting Santana turns 39 in April. The left-handed hitting Naylor, coming off a career power season in which he hit 31 homers and drove in 108 runs, will be 28 in June.
Money is always tight with the Guardians. In this case, the salaries are expected to be a wash. Which raises the question of why didn’t the Guardians keep Naylor for the 2025 season and let him walk at the end of the year?
He’s 10 years younger than Santana. His power numbers are trending upward, while Santana’s are remarkably consistent, but not the equal of Naylor’s. Then there’s this: At 39, when does Santana’s pop vanish?
It turns out the Guardians thought long and hard about riding Naylor into the free-agent sunset. They’ve done it before with quality players, namely Michael Brantley.
Many in the front office felt Naylor would be their first baseman for 2025. Not only did they think they couldn’t get the right value for him in a trade, but they didn’t know who would replace him at first base.
rom the outside looking in, fans felt the Guardians should have received a power-hitter or established starting pitcher for Naylor. That wasn’t going to happen because Naylor is so close to free agency.
Before the trade, the rumor was that the Guardians were looking for a controllable major league-ready pitcher in exchange for Naylor. This time the rumors were right. They received right-hander Slade Cecconi, who has made 17 starts in the big leagues, and won’t be a free agent until 2031.
Cecconi, 25, will go to spring training competing for a job in the rotation and bullpen. He was not impressive last year, going 2-7 with a 6.66 ERA in 20 games, including 13 starts, for the D-Backs. The performance improved at Triple-A Reno where Cecconi went 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 18 games, including five starts. He struck out 54 and walked 14 in 47 innings.
The Guardians also received Arizona’s Competitive Balance Round B pick in the draft in July. The Guards have the 27th pick in the first round based on their 92 wins last season. But they own two of the first three picks (No. 70 and No. 72) in the Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place between the second and third rounds.
When the decision to trade Naylor was made, the Guardians knew they needed help at first base. David Fry will be limited to DH duties because of right elbow surgery when he’s able to play. Rookie Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel were used sparingly at the position last year. If the Guardians couldn’t find an adequate replacement for Naylor, the trade made no sense.
Fortunately, the free agent market was teeming with first basemen. Pete Alonzo, Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Turner, Josh Bell, Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo and, of course, Santana were among them.
The Guardians considered several options before signing Santana. The signing was part of a flurry of deals involving first basemen. Walker signed with Houston — which prompted Arizona to acquire Naylor to replace Walker — while Goldschmidt signed with the Yankees and Bell with the Nationals.
Cleveland finished seventh in runs last year in the AL. It was a big jump from a 12th-place finish in 2023.
So was their sixth-place finish in home runs with 185. In 2023, they finished dead last in all of baseball with 124.
There is concern about the offense backsliding without Naylor, and there should be. Somebody has to hit behind Jose Ramirez, or the 54 times he’s been intentionally walked over the last three years will grow considerably.
If Santana can hold back the hands of time, that will help. The same goes for full and healthy seasons from All-Star Steven Kwan and Lane Thomas. Kwan hit .292 (140 for 480) with a career-high 14 homers last year, but played only 122 games because of two trips to the injured list.
The Guards acquired Thomas in a deadline deal from Washington. He opened his stay in Cleveland with a 4 for 55 skid, but eventually found his footing. He hit seven homers in September and .316 (6 for 19) with two homers and nine RBI in the ALDS against Detroit.
There is a big hole to fill at second base following the trade of Gold Glover Andres Gimenez to Toronto. Gimenez made 152 starts last year. It’s doubtful the Guardians will get that kind of production from one player, but manager Stephen Vogt has more than enough candidates to mix and match. The burden will be on shortstop Brayan Rocchio to adjust to what could be an ever-changing cast of double-play partners.
Chris Antonetti, president of baseball operations, has made it clear over the last few years that the Guardians’ success depends largely on the continued improvement by MLB’s youngest roster, not on the additions that are made through free agency or trades.
It means players such as Bo Naylor, Josh’s younger brother, Manzardo, Noel, Will Brennan, Rocchio, Tyler Freeman and Daniel Schneemann are going to have to do create a lot more offense than they did last year. It’s the easiest way to make sure they don’t regret keeping Josh Naylor for one more year.
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