Cleveland Sports Forum

We can't live in a bubble. Most Major League teams have similar talent.

When our prospects hit the Majors other teams prospects hit the Majors.

30 teams out there trying to win. They all get players from the draft, free agency and international signings.

Some teams develop their players better than others...other teams buy them.

Players play...teams win.

per Callis:

1. Jones 3b age 22 needs to be added to the 40 man roster
2. Freeman ss 21
3. McKenzie RHP 23 on the 40 man roster
4. B. Naylor C 20
5. Valera OF 20
6. Arias SS 20 needs to be protected from Rule 5 draft
7. Espino RHP 19
8. Rocchio SS 19
9. Bracho 2B 19
10. Hankins RHP 20

11. G Rodriguez ss/3b 18
12. Carson Tucker ss 18
13. Bobby Bradley ib 24 on the 40 man roster
14. Tanner Burns RHP 21
15. Joey Cantillo LHP 20
16. D. Johnson OF 25 on the 40 man roster
17. Petey Halpin OF 18
18 Owen Miller ss/2b 23
19. E. Clase RHP reliever 22 on the 40 man roster
20. Angel Martinez "IF' 18

21, Logan Allen the Shorter LHP 22 [note: Logan Allen the Taller still qualifies as a rookie but has fallen from grace]
22. Carlos Vargas RHP 21 [needs to be protected from rule 5 draft]
23 Milan Tolentino SS 18
24. Scott Moss LHP 26 on the 40 man roster
25. Luis Oviedo RHP 21 [needs to be protected from rule 5 draft]
26. Jose Tena SS 19
27. Sam Hentges LHP on the 40 man roster24
28. Lenny Torres RHP 20
29. Nick Sandlin RHP reliever 23
30. Will Benson RF/CF 22 [subject to the rule 5 draft]

Probably reported earlier:

Traded: RHP Matt Waldron traded as PTBNL with RHP Mike Clevinger and OF Greg Allen to Padres

18th round pick in 2019, very good stats in his debut, including 57 K in 45 2/3 innings
He's already 24 years old which makes him only 1 year younger than Cy Young winner Shane Bieber and two other Tribe starters and one year older than Triston McKenzie
Perhaps he had TJ or similar surgery while at Nebraska and is simply a delayed bloomer; either that or he's not much of a prospect.

Anthony Gose gets another shot at the Tribe bullpen in 2021.

Another potential roster addition: Oscar Gonzalez, he was awful in his brief AA debut in 2019 and was not included in the Alternate Site or the Instructional League so maybe he's on the way out; but we have so few outfielders of ability in the organization that seems like a poor idea

for the few of you interested in the Rule 5 draft here's BA column on what's in store

By 6 p.m. ET today, all 30 teams will have to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Dec. 10 Rule 5 draft.

Just like any normal year, there will be the easy calls both in players to add and players who can be left off. And just like any normal season, there will be the much tougher decisions. Does a major league-ready backup or up-and-down reliever warrant a 40-man roster spot? Is it safe to leave a toolsy but far away prospect off the roster for a year?

KEY UPCOMING BASEBALL DATES:

Nov. 20, 6 p.m. ET: Protection deadline for players to be added to MLB 40-man rosters (and MiLB reserve rosters) in advance of the Rule 5 draft.

Dec. 2, 8 p.m. ET: Deadline to tender contracts to MLB players (non-tender deadline).

Dec. 10, 12 p.m. ET: 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft

But the coronavirus pandemic has added a big additional question that has no obvious answer. How do you gauge the readiness of players after a year without a minor league season? If a player has yet to play above Class A, it is reasonable to think he can be carried on a major league roster all season?

Normally the answer to that question would be no. From decades of studying the Rule 5 draft, I would confidently tell you that even if a team were crazy enough to select a far-off player and managed to keep him on the roster all year, the payoff would not be worth it. The lost development time would be too much. Players sent back to the minors for further development never really found their way back.

That seems to be changing, however.


Three of the 11 players selected in the 2019 Rule 5 draft stuck on MLB rosters all season. One of those, Red Sox draftee infielder Jonathan Arauz, was a player who had played 28 games above Class A.

Three of the 14 players selected in the 2018 Rule 5 draft stuck on their new teams. One of those, Blue Jays draftee Elvis Luciano, was a teenager who had never pitched in full-season ball. Once Luciano had fulfilled his necessary time on the MLB roster in 2019, he did not pitch a game for Toronto in 2020.

In 2016, the Padres had the first three picks in the Rule 5 draft. Two of them (Allen Cordoba and Luis Torrens) both went straight back to the minors as soon as their Rule 5 eligibility requirements had been met. In Torrens’ case, he was included in the 2020 deadline deal that brought Austin Nola from Seattle to San Diego.

So teams are showing more willingness to carry players who aren’t ready. But more importantly, there are now success stories. For a couple of decades, it was hard to find examples of players being stashed in the majors for their Rule 5 year, going back to the minors the next year and returning to find success. Now we have multiple examples.

The Orioles drafted Indians outfielder Anthony Santander knowing that he likely was not ready for the majors. They also knew that he had a shoulder injury that would cause him to miss significant time. Santander spent most of 2017 on the Orioles’ injured list or the bench. He returned to the big league roster for long enough early in 2018 to meet the remaining Rule 5 eligibility requirements before being demoted back to the minors.

Santander spent most of 2018 at Double-A Bowie and spent the first two months of the 2019 season at Triple-A Norfolk. Baltimore promoted Santander back to the majors in June 2019. Since then, he’s been one of the Orioles’ better power hitters. He hit 20 home runs with the Orioles in 2019 and hit .261/.315/.575 with 11 home runs in the shortened 2020 season. His slugging percentage led all O’s hitters.

Similarly, Tigers outfielder Victor Reyes was plucked out of the Braves’ farm system in the 2017 Rule 5 draft even though there was a belief he may need some further seasoning in the minors. Reyes had played a full season in Double-A, so it wasn’t as if he would have no value in his Rule 5 season. Reyes’ bat-to-ball skills, defense and baserunning made him a useful backup in 2018 for Detroit, but his bat wasn’t really ready and he hit .222/.239/.288.

He then was sent back to Triple-A Toledo in 2019. He returned to Detroit for good after a half season with the Mudhens and has been a regular in the Tigers lineup in center and left field ever since. He hit .304/.334/.481 for the Tigers in 2019. This year, he hit .277/.315/.391 while playing in 57 of the Tigers’ 60 games.

It’s likely that the lack of a minor league season in 2020 will lead some teams to be a little more aggressive about leaving talented but far-away youngsters unprotected.

But if recent history is any indication, that may be a little riskier than once was believed.

and the chart listing all players protected before today's 6 pm deadline has 3 names on it for all 30 teams. Not sure what the advantage is of delaying to the last moment but so it is.

Hoynes quotes mlb.com for projections: CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians have five open spots on their 40-man roster that are expected to be filled by Friday’s 8 p.m. deadline in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 10. MLB.com projected that the five eligible players who will fill those spots are third baseman Nolan Jones, shortstop Gabriel Arias, right-handers Carlos Vargas and Luis Oviedo and outfielder Will Benson. They are all rated among the Indians top 30 prospects, according to MLB.com.

I think it would make more sense to keep a spot open than protect Benson who is a long way off, although I did suggest recently that we should hold onto to any outfielders who are projectable.

Rest of Hoynes:

Eligible players who are not placed on the 40-man roster can be selected by other teams in the Rule 5 Draft. The drafting team has to pay the team losing the player $100,000. If they don’t keep that player on their opening day big-league roster, they must offer the player back to his old team for half the purchase price.

The last big loss the Indians took in the Rule 5 Draft happened in December of 2016. Baltimore selected outfielder Anthony Santander. The Indians had left him unprotected because he was coming off shoulder surgery, but the Orioles did a good job scouting Santander and drafted him.

The Orioles were able to keep Santander even though he opened the 2017 season on the injured list because he was active for at least 90 days during the big leagues that year.

Last season Santander hit .261 (40-for-153) with 11 homers and 32 RBI. He posted a .890 OPS in 37 games while playing right and left field. In 2019, he slashed .216/.297/.476 with 20 homers and 59 RBI.

Jones, regarded as the Indians top prospect, spent the 2020 season at the team’s alternate training site at Classic Park in Eastlake. With Jose Ramirez set at third base, Jones played some outfield in the the Fall Instructional League that ended in October. Jones, who could also get tested at first base, could make his big league debut in 2021.

Arias, 20, was one of six players the Indians received from San Diego in the Mike Clevinger trade on Aug. 31. He spent time at the alternate training site and participated in the Fall Instructional League. The 6-1, 200-pound Arias hit .302 (144-for-477) with 17 homers and 75 RBI at Class A Elsinore for San Diego in 2019. There was no minor league season in 2020.

Nine of the Indians top 30 prospects are middle infielders. Tyler Freeman and Arias are the highest ranked. That did not stop the Indians from making high school shorstop Carson Tucker their No.1 pick in the shortened 2020 draft in June.

Why so many shortstops? Perhaps one of them may replace four-time All-Star Francisco Lindor, who is expected to be traded this winter.

Vargas, 21, signed with the Indians in 2016 in the Dominican Republic, but has pitched only two seasons. He went 6-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 15 starts for Class A Mahoning Valley in 2019. He struck out 71 and walked 24 in 77 2/3 innings.

Oviedo, 21, was left unprotected last year, but was not taken in the Rule 5. The 6-4 Oviedo went 6-6 with a 5.36 ERA in 19 starts for Class A Lake County in 2019. He struck out 72 and walked 40 in 87 innings.

Benson was the Indians No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft that has seen right-handers Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac advance to the Tribe’s rotation. Jones was the organization’s second round pick in 2016.
The Indians paid Benson a $2.5 million signing bonus out of Westminister Schools in Georgia, but the 6-5 outfielder has yet to progress past Class A ball. Last year Benson hit .272 (59-for-217) with 18 homers and 55 RBI at Lake County before being promoted to Class A Lynchburg. He hit .189 (41-for-217) with four homers and 23 RBI in 61 games following the promotion. Benson in 434 combined at-bats struck out 151 times for a 35% strikeout rate.

Players are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if they signed when they were 18 or younger and have not been added to the 40-man roster within five seasons. Players who signed at 19 or older must be added to the 40-man within four seasons.

Always room for another list; this one is "each team's youngest prospect" on the mlb.com Top 30

Indians: Petey Halpin, OF (No. 17)
The Indians gave under-slot bonuses to their first three selections in the 2020 Draft, allowing them to pay an over-slot $1.525 million for Halpin in the third round. The 18-year-old's hitting ability, speed, arm and center-field defense all project as at least solid, and he has some sneaky raw power as well.

It's kind of hard to start ranking our 2020 draft class when none of them have played an inning in a pro game. The immediate post draft ratings liked our group a lot starting with
the standard 1st round shortstop [Carson Tucker],
then a bonus 1st round standard 4-quality pitch college RHP [Tanner Burns, who like many of our recent picks has recovered from injury],
followed by our second version of LHP Logan Allen, a college pitcher],
then Halpin [good runner and defender; hope he does not take after recent top pick Quentin Holmes who offers some of the same upside but cannot hit one bit
and then yet another SS Milan Tolentino who's a great defender but can't hit, well not against high school arms, sure he'll be a bit stick in the pros.

a half dozen teams decided to announce their heavily guarded secrets; I note that a couple have included guys just claimed on waivers so maybe everyone is waiting for everyone else to make cuts before they make their announcements. The excitement ends in a couple hours.

Speaking of excitement I missed this from earlier in the week:

Cleveland Indians signed free agent 2B Andruw Monasterio to a minor league contract.
he came in the Gomes trade but has been somewhat overshadowed by Daniel Johnson and Jefry Rodriguez
A very poor hitting utility infielder who has reached Akron.

Tribe filled its 40 man roster. Guess they don't want anybody in the Rule 5 draft. Can't blame them if they don't want to spend any money.

If they took a player in the Rule 5 draft it would cost them nearly $700,000..... $100,000 to the other team and nearly $600,000 minimum MLB salary for the year.

So besides Jones and Arias who were obvious choices they added
Carlos Vargas RHP who can hit 99
Skipped big Luis Oviedo [who hasn't made it to High A] and instead
protected little Eli Morgan 5-10 RHP who has reached AA and been pretty successful at all levels; I have to assume he projects as a reliever.

And since there's one thing that Tito loves it's a hard working utility infielder, they added one of my least favorite Indians' prospects, Ernie Clement, right handed hitter who besides a 33 game spell in Lynchburg has never hit over 267 on a full season team [oh well he was 6 for 11 in 3 games in Columbus] His career slash line is 279/336/351; he steals successfully about 65% of the time. Good fielder at 2nd, can play SS. One thing the team needs to horde is second rate middle infielders. Hey if they want to be really cheap in 2021, they can hand 2nd base to Ernie.

So the roster is full without room to pick some cheap OF in the Rule 5 draft, although I don't think there's any reason they cannot release Beau Taylor any time they happen to notice that he's still on the roster.