The Guardians are baseball’s most disrespected contender — a new ranking just made it official

Updated: Mar. 05, 2026, 11:19 a.m.|Published: Mar. 05, 2026, 11:18 a.m.

By Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The latest Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast just handed the Guardians the ultimate bulletin board material — and Joe Noga and Paul Hoynes are here for every word of it.

MLB.com published a fresh ranking of all 30 Major League Baseball teams sorted into World Series tiers, and the placement of the Guardians set the show’s hosts off on one of the most pointed, entertaining conversations of the spring. It’s the kind of analysis that cuts straight to the heart of what Cleveland baseball has always been about: being counted out, and then making the people who counted them out look foolish.

Here is the setup. The top tier belongs exclusively to the Los Angeles Dodgers, chasing three championships in a row. The second tier is stacked with the Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, Phillies, Red Sox, Tigers, and Yankees — big markets, big budgets, big expectations. The third tier holds the Braves, Mets, and Orioles, teams positioned as most likely to return to the postseason after missing it last year. And then there is the fourth tier.

The fourth tier is where it gets interesting.

“The fourth tier is occupied by two teams,” Noga said. “It’s the Milwaukee Brewers and the Guardians. According to MLB.com, these are teams that they always underrate and that always make them look bad because they always wind up overperforming.”

Read that again slowly. The official definition of the tier containing the Guardians — a team that won the AL Central last year on a historic comeback run — is: the teams analysts always underrate, and that always make those analysts look bad. That is simultaneously an insult and the most accurate thing MLB.com has ever written about this franchise.

Hoynes was not offended. He was nodding his head.

“It makes sense,” Hoynes said. “Milwaukee won an NL Central title last year with the best record in baseball. Cleveland won the AL Central last year with a historic comeback. These are two well-run teams that are playing in mid-to-small markets... they’re like kissing cousins almost when it comes to being kind of locked in.”

The comparison between Cleveland and Milwaukee is more than fair — it is genuinely insightful. Both franchises have become the modern blueprint for how to build sustainable winning baseball without a massive payroll. They draft well, develop with precision, extract maximum value from every roster dollar, and show up ready to win division titles while larger-market rivals scratch their heads and count their losses.

They are, as Hoynes put it, “kissing cousins” in the most competitive sense of the phrase.

But while the Guardians’ placement might be defensible in its own backhanded way, other parts of the ranking strain credulity. Noga zeroed in on the most glaring example.

“The one that kind of stuns me, shocks me is the Red Sox. They see Boston as an up and coming team... to have them on the second tier, I think is kind of insane to me. That’s putting a lot of faith in what they’ve done this offseason and a lot of unproven young talent there.”

It is a fair point, delivered with full conviction. The AL East is one of the most brutally competitive divisions in baseball. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles do not hand anything to anybody. Boston’s roster is built on potential and promise more than proven postseason production. Meanwhile, the Guardians — who won their division — sit a full tier below a Red Sox team that did not make the playoffs.

Hoynes offered the sharp counterpoint: the Red Sox are a big-market, big-money franchise, and MLB.com’s formula may be weighting payroll and market size alongside actual on-field merit. If true, that explains nearly everything about where Cleveland landed — and why they keep landing there, year after year, in national projections and preseason rankings.

The Guardians are 28th in offseason spending this year. They are operating at one of their lowest payroll levels in recent memory. And yet here they are, sitting alongside the Brewers as the team that will make you look foolish for doubting them.

Guardians fans have seen this movie before. They know how it ends.

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Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians

By Steve Adams MLBTR | at March 5, 2026 5:44pm CDT

Spring training is here, but it’s not clear the Guardians ever got the memo that the offseason began. Despite winning the AL Central in 2025, they made practically no additions and will enter the year with one of their lowest team payrolls — if not the lowest — in more than a decade.

Major League Free Agent Signings

Shawn Armstrong, RHP: One year, $5.5MM (includes buyout of 2027 mutual option)
Austin Hedges, C: One year, $4MM
Colin Holderman, RHP: One year, $1.5MM
Connor Brogdon, RHP: One year, $900K
Total spend: $11.9MM

Option Decisions

Declined $6MM club option on LHP John Means

Trades and Waiver Claims

Acquired LHP Justin Bruihl from Blue Jays for cash (later traded to Cardinals for cash)
Acquired minor league RHP Franklin Gomez from Mets for international bonus pool space
Selected RHP Peyton Pallette from White Sox in Rule 5 Draft

Extensions

José Ramirez, 3B: Four years, $106MM (on top of preexisting three years, $69MM; contract includes $70MM in deferred money which actually lowers the amount Cleveland owes Ramirez in 2026)

Notable Minor League Signings

Rhys Hoskins, Ben Lively (two-year minor league deal), Kolby Allard, Pedro Avila, Carter Kieboom, Stuart Fairchild, Codi Heuer, Dom Nunez

Notable Losses

Jakob Junis, Lane Thomas, Will Wilson (outrighted), Matt Krook (outrighted), Sam Hentges (non-tendered), Will Brennan (non-tendered), Nic Enright (non-tendered), Zak Kent (lost on waivers), Jhonkensy Noel (lost on waivers), John Means

Cleveland went on an improbable run to its third AL Central title in four seasons in 2025, rattling off a blistering 20-7 record in September to edge out Detroit, who’d led the division for much of the summer. Strong play from the Guardians alone wouldn’t have gotten the job done; they needed the Tigers to also collapse in epic fashion. Detroit obliged, going 7-17 in September to squander what been an 11-game division lead as deep into the season as Sept. 4.

Entering the offseason, it was easy to presume that a Cinderella run of this nature, coupled with practically no long-term commitments and one of the lightest slates of 2026 financial obligations of any team in the sport would have emboldened the Guardians to add to what was an anemic offense. Any such presumptions have been proven incorrect.

The Guardians hit .226/.296/.373 as a team last season. The resulting 87 wRC+ (indicating their offense as a whole was 13% worse than average) ranked 28th in the majors. Cleveland ranked 28th in baseball with 643 runs scored and 29th in each of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Superstar third baseman José Ramirez and and slugging first baseman Kyle Manzardo (who was heavily platooned) were the only members of the roster to manage even a league-average offensive line, by measure of wRC+. Left fielder Steven Kwan was short by the narrowest of margins, at 99. Outfield prospect George Valera hit fairly well but did so in a sample of 48 plate appearances.

Not only was no one else on Cleveland’s roster even a league-average hitter — virtually no one else was even close. First baseman/outfielder C.J. Kayfus hit .220/.292/.415 — good for a 96 wRC+ in 138 plate appearances. No one else on the roster was even within 10% of average. Cleveland gave a total of 2757 plate appearances to Angel Martinez, Gabriel Arias, Daniel Schneemann, Bo Naylor, Nolan Jones, Brayan Rocchio and Hedges. That’s 46% of their team-wide plate appearances. Those seven players combined for a .212/.280/.346 batting line (76 wRC+). They’re all back in 2026.

Cleveland does have some hope for better offense in 2026. They could receive a full year of outfield prospects Valera and Chase DeLauter, but betting on them to this extent is an immense risk. DeLauter was a first-round pick in 2022 and has been a top prospect since. He’s also been regularly injured. Since being taken in the draft three and a half years ago, he’s played all of 138 minor league games. His two playoff games with Cleveland in 2025 marked his big league debut. It’s a similar story with Valera, a former top prospect out of the Dominican Republic who has only once played 100 games in a season despite signing back in 2017. He played 60 regular-season games in 2025 between the big leagues and the minors.

The Guardians also have 2024’s No. 1 overall pick, second baseman Travis Bazzana, very likely to make his big league debut early in the 2026 season. Twenty-four-year-old infielder Juan Brito could also get a look, though he got into only 31 minor league games last season due to injury. Catching prospect Cooper Ingle could make his debut in 2026 as well, and he’d have only the lowest of bars to clear with the bat in order to be an upgrade over the current Naylor/Hedges tandem.

That group unequivocally gives Cleveland some near-term upside, but banking on them as the sole means of offensive improvement is the type of strategy one might see from a rebuilding club or a cost-conscious team whose payroll is already pushing franchise-record territory. Neither is the case in Cleveland. The Guardians are aiming to contend, despite their lack of investment in the club. And while projections will peg their payroll around $80MM or so, that doesn’t include the $10MM of deferred money for Ramirez or the $6MM they won’t be paying to closer Emmanuel Clase while he faces trial for rigging pitches in a gambling scandal that rocked the franchise (and also included starting pitcher Luis Ortiz).

Cleveland’s payroll is going to clock in around $65MM. Their franchise-record mark for Opening Day was about $70MM higher than that, back in 2018. They’ve been between $90-100MM in each of the past three seasons. The last time they trotted out a payroll this low was in 2021, the first year coming off the pandemic-shortened season when they’d just absorbed substantial losses. If we’re willing to set that aside due to unique circumstances, Cleveland hasn’t been this thrifty since 2011-12.

For a team coming off a division title and that type of late-season surge, it’s hard to reconcile. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that the Guardians need to leave space for young players to step up and that their clearest path to contending involves young hitters like Bazzana, DeLauter and Valera helping to carry the offense. There’s some truth behind those comments, but Antonetti surely didn’t want his priciest offensive addition of the winter to be a reunion with Hedges, either. It’s abundantly clear that this front office had little to no money to work with this winter, and that’s borne out when digging deeper into their slate of moves.

Hedges’ $4MM deal to return to the Guardians was surprising at the time and looks all the more confounding in the wake of an offseason devoid of activity. Cleveland seems to place a higher premium on catcher defense than just about any team in the game. In Naylor and Hedges, they’ll have one of the sport’s top defensive duos but also perhaps the least-productive catching tandem in baseball from an offensive standpoint. That pair is generally keeping the seat warm for the aforementioned Ingle, who slashed .260/.389/.419 with more walks than strikeouts as a 24-year-old in Double-A and Triple-A last season. Ingle should make his debut at some point in 2026.

The only other move to address the lineup was a late non-roster deal with first baseman Rhys Hoskins. The former Phillies standout had two pretty pedestrian seasons in Milwaukee in 2024-25 after returning from an ACL tear that cost him the 2023 season. He hit .223/.314/.418 with 38 homers in 221 games while calling the hitter-friendly American Family Field home. Hoskins was a perennial 30-homer threat in Philadelphia from 2018-22, hitting .241/.350/.483 with 130 round-trippers in 2665 plate appearances. He hasn’t approached that level of output since, which is why the market largely checked out on him this winter. He’ll make just $1.5MM if he cracks Cleveland’s roster. There’s obvious bargain potential there, but the 2024-25 version of Hoskins is more of a league-average bat than the difference-maker sorely lacked by Cleveland.

Whether ownership-driven or a conscientious decision by the baseball operations staff — the former seems much likelier — improvements in the lineup will have to come down to the Guardians’ young players. Beyond Ingle, names to watch include:

Travis Bazzana, 2B (No. 1 pick in 2024): .245/.389/.424, 17.6% walk rate, nine homers, 17 doubles, five triples, 12 steals in 84 games between Double-A and Triple-A

George Valera, OF (international free agent out of the Dominican): .220/.333/.415 in 48 MLB plate appearances, plus .318/.388/.550 in 170 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A

Chase DeLauter, OF (2023 first-rounder): .264/.379/.473 with a matching walk and strikeout rates of 15.8% in 177 minor league plate appearances (mostly in Triple-A)

Juan Brito, INF (acquired from Rockies in 2022 Nolan Jones trade): .243/.355/.437, 12.8% walk rate, 23.1% strikeout rate in 125 minor league plate appearances (mostly Triple-A)

C.J. Kayfus, 1B/OF (2023 third-rounder): .220/.292/.415 in 138 MLB plate appearances, plus .300/.390/.539 with 14 homers, an 11.9% walk rate and 25.2% strikeout rate in 369 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A

In addition to the lack of big league experience, one thing that stands out among that group is a lack of games played in 2025 — at any level. Valera (60 games in 2025) and DeLauter (42 games) have been consistently hurt throughout their minor league tenures. A pair of oblique strains limited Bazzana to 84 games in his first full season. Brito played 31 games due to thumb and hamstring surgeries. Kayfus logged 130 games — the only one of the bunch close to a full season.

Cleveland needs so much to go right that it’s hard to see this club being even an average MLB offense. DeLauter and Valera seem ticketed for Opening Day outfield roles but need to prove they can both stay healthy and hit big league pitching. The options behind them (Angel Martinez, Nolan Jones, Johnathan Rodriguez, Petey Halpin) don’t inspire much confidence. Bazzana is probably starting the year in Triple-A, meaning the Guardians will go with a combination of Gabriel Arias (.220/.274/.363 in 2025) and Brayan Rocchio (.233/.290/.340) in the middle infield.

The entire Guardians offense hinges on superstar third baseman José Ramirez, so perhaps it’s fitting that he was at the center of the only truly notable transaction Cleveland made this winter. Ramirez signed an extension that guaranteed him four years and $106MM in new money (on top of his preexisting three years). He’s now locked up through age 39. It’s fair to wonder whether this was really necessary. He was already under club control through his age-35 season. If Ramirez slows down and this turns into a Miguel Cabrera/Tigers situation, the Guardians could live to regret the deal.

In the short term, it seemed to pay some dividends. Ramirez agreed to defer $10MM annually over the seven years of his contract. He has a $25MM salary for the upcoming season, but only $15MM will be paid out this year. In theory, that should’ve given Cleveland more room to add to the roster, but that didn’t pan out. As such, the most consequential deal of their offseason actually subtracted from the 2026 payroll.

Ramirez might be the most singularly important player to his roster of any team in Major League Baseball. An injury to him would decimate Cleveland’s entire offense, but there’s no real fallback plan if he gets hurt. They’ve been fortunate to keep him as healthy as they have. Ramirez has missed only four games in each of the past two seasons. Dating back to 2020, he’s played in an incredible 96.5% of Cleveland’s games. He’s a true iron man, but he’s now 33 years old. If he were to incur an injury, the infield would likely include a combination of Brito, Rocchio, Arias and Bazzana to the left of Manzardo.

The Guardians’ pitching staff is in better shape, as is frequently the case, but it’s not as dominant as it was when the Guards were habitually churning out borderline Cy Young candidates. The sextet of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Parker Messick, Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo gives manager Stephen Vogt six solid options, but no one from the group feels like a true No. 1 starter. Williams’ 3.06 ERA gives him that look on the surface, but he walked more hitters than any qualified pitcher in baseball last year. Metrics like SIERA (4.35) and FIP (4.39) are far more bearish.

There’s some depth, primarily in the form of righty Austin Peterson and lefty Doug Nikhazy. Both are on the 40-man roster. Peterson had a strong showing in the upper minors but has yet to debut at 26 and isn’t an especially touted prospect. Nikhazy struggled in the upper minors and in the majors last year. Non-roster options include Kolby Allard and old friend Pedro Avila. Former top prospect Daniel Espino is finally healthy again, but he’s pitched a total of 19 innings since the 2021 season ended. Anything he contributes will be a bonus, but it’s hard to rely on him given that injury track record.

The one area Cleveland made some small additions is in the bullpen. Veteran Shawn Armstrong is coming off a big year in Texas. His overall body of work since 2020 is strong, but it’s been a roller coaster in terms of year-to-year ERA marks; he’s ranged everywhere from 1.38 in 52 innings with the ’23 Rays to 6.75 in 36 frames with the O’s and Rays in ’21. On a cheap one-year deal, he’s a nice addition — particularly for a club that has a good track record of coaxing strong performances out of unheralded pitchers.

That ability will be pivotal with the Guardians’ other big league signing in the ‘pen, too. Connor Brogdon had a nice run with the Phillies from 2020-23 (3.55 ERA in 142 innings) but has struggled since. He still sat better than 95 mph with his heater and notched an impressive 13.2% swinging-strike rate in 47 innings with the Angels last year, even while limping to a 5.55 earned run average. If the Guardians can help to curb his susceptibility to home runs (2.11 HR/9 with Anaheim), he could be a nice bullpen piece both in 2026 and 2027, as he’d be arbitration-eligible next winter.

Antonetti & Co. also rolled the dice on a $1.5MM guarantee for hard-throwing former Pirates righty Colin Holderman. He can be optioned, so he’s not a clear lock to make the roster, however. The 30-year-old righty, who sits 97.4 mph with his sinker, notched a 3.52 ERA while fanning nearly one-quarter of his opponents in 2023-24. His strikeout rate plummeted in 2025, however, as he was rocked for a 7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 big league frames.

There’s no sugarcoating the fact that this was an immensely disappointing offseason for Cleveland fans. Their 2026 chances rest entirely on Ramirez continuing his iron-man ways and several oft-injured prospects simultaneously staying healthy and breaking out in their first extended looks of major league action. The pitching staff should be solid or better once again, but the depth beyond the top six rotation arms isn’t great.

Cleveland’s blank-slate payroll (aside from Ramirez and Bibee) seemed to set the stage for at least a modest addition or two in the lineup. Instead, their offseason will be remembered more for its inactivity than anything else. It’s a huge bet on in-house improvements, and there’s little to no safety net if those prospects fall to injuries or struggle to adjust to major league pitching.

Is Nolan Jones stuck in the middle again? Guardians takeaways

By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio — Nolan Jones appears to be stuck in the middle again.

Last season, according to manager Stephen Vogt, Jones spent most of his at-bats being “late on the fastball and out front on the breaking ball.”

He hit .211 (75 for 355) with 113 strikeouts, 39 walks and a .609 OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage).

This spring, after the Guardians signed him to a one-year $2 million deal, he arrived in Goodyear, Arizona, eager for a fresh start. The Guardians opened the Cactus League season with split squad games against the Brewers and Reds on Feb. 21. Jones, starting in right field, went 2 for 3 against Milwaukee with a double, homer and four RBI.

Since then, however, Jones has once again been caught in between.

Jones is 1 for 20 since the spring-training opener.

“We’re still early in camp,” Vogt told reporters at Cleveland’s spring-training site in Goodyear. “Right now, everyone has between 15 and 20 plate appearances. With Nolan, it just seems at times he’s caught in between again — a little late on the fastball.

“What we saw with Nolan at times last year was the lack of conviction. Nolan is aware of it, he’s working on it. We’re working with him closely to find that conviction and be ready to go.”

Vogt said the closer opening day gets, the more Jones and other players put pressure on themselves.

“You can’t do that,” said Vogt. “Go out, get your work in and be ready to go. Be convicted in what you’re doing.”

Granted Nolan can't hit a fastball, or an off speed pitch, and is not worth the $2M contract they irrationally gave him, I would still not go as far as suggesting he be
convicdted DFA is enough

More from Hoynes

Now that’s a catch
It was windy and sunny in the Arizona desert on Friday. Those are not ideal working conditions for big-league outfielders roaming Cactus League ballparks.

In the Guardians’ game Friday against the Angels, outfield prospect Kahlil Watson was tested by both elements. Angel shortstop Yolmer Sanchez sent a long fly ball to center field in the seventh inning.

Watson, who moved to the outfield full time last year, started back tracking. He turned to his left, then he turned to his right before making a lunging catch that sent him skidding across the warning track on his chest.

“Outfield play in Arizona is really hard,” said Vogt. “On the catch Watson made the ball probably changed directions on him a couple of times (because of the wind). Kudos to Watson. He’s worked really hard in the outfield.”

Extra work
After throwing four scoreless innings Thursday night against the White Sox, Tanner Bibee went to the bullpen and threw 15 more pitches to reach his pitch limit.

“Tanner was really impressive,” said Vogt. “He filled up the strike zone. He had to go and throw 15 more in the bullpen.

“It’s a move you utilize when people are efficient. We only have so many innings to go around and (other) guys who have to pitch that day. It’s a good move to get the volume up.”

Vogt said Bibee’s four-seam fastball has been “as good as we’ve seen it.”

That was not always the case last year. The opposition, according to Statcast, hit .301 against Bibee’s fastball in 2025 compared to .282 in 2024 and .243 in 2023 when almost 47% of his pitches were four-seamers.

“Right now, the four-seamer has been consistent,” said Vogt. “He’s hitting his spots, and the movement on it has been what we’re looking for.”

Trouble with the long ball
Logan Allen started Game 1 for Panama in the World Baseball Classic on Friday against Cuba in Puerto Rico. Allen had trouble keeping the ball in the park and it cost him.

Allen allowed two homers, including a two-run drive by Yoan Moncada, as Cuba beat Panama, 3-1. Allen pitched three innings, allowing three runs on five hits. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out five.

Moncada, the Angels’ third baseman, is 2 for 11 in his career against Allen.

Finally
The Guardians used seven pitchers in Friday’s 5-3 win over the Angels, and they didn’t issue a walk.

Can be it, an answer for a Guardians OF spot? — What Terry Pluto hears from Goodyear

CLEVELAND, Ohio — What I’m hearing from Guardians training camp in Goodyear:

It’s always dangerous to fall in love with a young hitter in spring training, especially in Arizona. The dry air and windy desert conditions help hitters.

That said, the performances of George Valera and Angel Martinez are encouraging. Fans hate it when platooning is mentioned, but there are times when it works.

First, the spring stats: Martinez is hitting .438 (7 for 16) with two homers. Valera is batting .319 (6 for 19).

The bigger picture: Martinez is listed as a switch hitter, but his best side of the plate is … right-handed. Yes, a RIGHT-HANDED hitting outfielder – at least vs. lefties. Martinez batted .279 (.792 OPS) vs. lefty pitching in 2025.

Valera is a lefty hitter who batted .188 vs. lefties last season at Class AAA. But wait a minute … he hammered righties to the tune of .319 (.940 OPS).

I’ve not heard it publicly discussed, but I’m told the Guardians are looking at some type of Valera/Martinez platoon. Both are young outfielders. The Guardians stayed away from signing marginal veteran outfielders to give the kids a chance.

Here’s a plan: Valera/Martinez in left field. Steven Kwan in center. Chase DeLauter in right field. One spot platoons, the other two have every-day players in Kwan and DeLauter.

I’m more open to platooning than some people, partly because I broke into covering MLB baseball with the 1979 Orioles managed by Earl Weaver. He invented the stats of pitchers vs. individual hitters as a way to maximize the talent of guys who would be rather mediocre if they played every day.

If you look at the stats of Valera and Martinez, the way to use them is obvious. Let them combine to be one good outfielder.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers AL wild card game 1, September 30, 2025
Can Angel Martinez give Cleveland some hitting when facing lefty pitchers? Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
Scribbles in my notebook:
1. The Guards are going slow with DeLauter, making sure he’s physically ready to open the season in Cleveland. I watched Sunday’s game when he hammered a double off the left-center field wall. He followed that with a majestic homer to right field. He’s 6 for 11 this spring with a homer and two doubles. DeLauter was injured in last spring. In 2024, he batted .520 (13 for 25) with four HR in spring training with the Guardians.

2. Meanwhile, there’s Nolan Jones. He is 3 for 23 this spring with 10 strikeouts. He is out of minor league options, but that’s no guarantee of a roster spot. Unless he starts to hit, the Guardians will waive him and send him to Class AAA. If another team claims him on waivers, so be it.

3. Daniel Espino was at 96-98 mph on his fastball in his spring outing, which was one inning. The Guardians will be patient with Espino, who does have a minor league option. He’s had two major shoulder surgeries. Just my thought: I’d send him to Class AAA and put him in the bullpen. See if his arm will hold up in that role rather than starting.

4. Ralphy Velazquez is 5 for 12 this spring. He’s the best looking young hitter I’ve seen in the system since DeLauter. I watched Velazquez in a doubleheader at Class AA Akron in 2025. I saw DeLauter at Lake County in 2023, his first pro year. As for the lefty-hitting first baseman, a top Guardians official told me, “The kid has been awesome.”

5. I’m somewhat intrigued by Milan Tolentino, who is hitting .273 this spring with two homers in 16 plate appearances. He can play all the infield positions. I was told he has “legitimate big league power.” Last season, Tolentino hit only .216 (.751 OPS) for Class AAA Columbus. He had 21 homers for the Clippers. A concern is his 158 strikeouts in 460 at-bats. He’ll open the season in the minors.

6. The Guardians picked Peyton Pallette in the Rule 5 draft as a power arm for their bullpen. In the White Sox farm system in 2025, he had a 4.06 ERA between Class AA and AAA. Cleveland liked his 86 strikeouts in 56 innings. He had some shoulder soreness early in camp. He struck out the side in his first spring appearance, hitting 98 mph on the radar gun. He has to make the team or the White Sox can take him back. He’s likely to open the season in Cleveland, especially if he has a few more outings like his first one.

Guardians prospect Velazquez has always been ahead of schedule

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- Ralphy Velazquez is used to playing baseball above his age level. When he was 6 years old, he competed alongside kids three to four years older than he was. It was a testament to his abilities and the belief that his parents, Nicole and Armando, held in him.

“It was fun,” said Velazquez, who's ranked as the Guardians’ No. 4 prospect and No. 89 overall by MLB Pipeline. “You’re nervous at first, because everyone's older. Then when you step in the box, you’ve just got to show your talent.

“It’s been my mindset since I was little. I was very fortunate to do that at a young age.”

That’s a good backdrop to what we’ve seen from Velazquez during his professional career. He has often been one of the youngest players on the field, but has continually performed. We’ve seen that this spring, and we saw it in the Minor Leagues in 2025.

Velazquez – who will turn 21 on May 28 – has been on an upward trajectory, and he’s been hard to miss this spring. A non-roster invitee in Guardians big league camp, he’s 5-for-12 with two doubles, three RBIs and one walk with just one strikeout through eight games.

Cleveland’s first-round Draft pick in 2023, Velazquez split last season with High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron. Over 122 total games, he slashed .265/.342/.497 with 22 homers, 85 RBIs and 59 extra-base hits.

Velazquez was young even for High-A last year; he was 2.3 years younger than the average player in the Midwest League. The gap was even larger during his stint in the Eastern League following promotion to Akron (3.6 years). But Velazquez was nonetheless stellar at the plate.

Over 22 games with the RubberDucks, Velazquez slashed .330/.405/.589 with eight doubles, five homers and 22 RBIs. He had a 9.5 percent walk rate and a 15.1 percent strikeout rate. For comparison, with Lake County, he slashed .245/.323/.469 with 17 homers and 63 RBIs, and had a 9.6 percent walk rate and a 20.3 percent strikeout rate.

Velazquez noted that some keys to his Akron surge included trusting himself, his routines and his plan at the plate. Also key was being “fearless,” something his parents instilled in him at a young age.

“My parents have always pushed that on me,” Velazquez said. “Just saying I'm good, and I need to trust my abilities. At the end of the day, we're playing a kids’ game. So go out there and just have fun.”

Velazquez had a slow start to the season with Lake County. Through his first 42 games, he hit .191 with a .680 OPS before he turned it on in the summertime. It was a challenging period for him, but one he is grateful for given the lessons he took from those low points.

“You can't ride the highs too high, and you can't ride the lows too low,” Velazquez said of what he learned during his tough start to 2025. “You have to be right in the middle and enjoy every day being on the baseball field, because we're blessed at the end of the day to be out here.

“People and kids would kill to be out here doing what we're doing. So just love the game, have fun with it, and trust my ability.”

Velazquez has a sense of maturity to him beyond his years. On the field, the Guardians have been impressed by the advanced approach he shows offensively.

In 'surreal moment,' Velazquez knocks in run while mic'd up in Spring Breakout

In the seventh inning on Feb. 28 against the White Sox, Velazquez got a four-seam fastball over the plate from right-hander Tyler Davis. He drilled a double (which had a 106.9 mph exit velocity) to the left-center-field gap. In the eighth, he knocked a double down the left-field line, on a four-seamer from Chicago’s Adisyn Coffey that ran in on his hands.

It’s not just his offensive approach. Velazquez plays a strong first base and is a plus baserunner. He went first to third twice against the A’s on Feb. 22 -- including on an Angel Genao line-drive single to right-center in the sixth inning.

The Guardians never put strict timetables on their prospects. But organizationally, they’re not ruling out the possibility of Velazquez contributing in the Majors at some point later this year.

“He’s a complete hitter, and we know he has power. He can shoot the ball the other way,” manager Stephen Vogt said. “He's had some hard-hit pull-side balls, and he plays a really good first base. He's very athletic over there. His baserunning has been outstanding.”

Tim Stebbins covers the Guardians for MLB.com.

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Wow great job joez!

MLB’s new ABS challenge system was made for Guardians leadoff hitter Steven Kwan

GOODYEAR, Ariz. — Steven Kwan watched a 3-0 fastball from Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Roki Sasaki sail past home plate on Tuesday afternoon. The heater missed the zone by nearly three inches, but the umpire ruled it a strike.

The Guardians’ leadoff hitter tapped his helmet. The animation on the scoreboard supported his inclination. Kwan trotted to first base with a four-pitch walk.

That could be a regular sequence for a hitter whose grasp of the strike zone has fueled his rise to All-Star status. Since he broke into the majors on Opening Day 2022, Kwan has had 264 pitches mistakenly called a strike against him. That’s the third-highest total in the league in that timeframe, behind only Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena, and just ahead of Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge.

That could be a regular sequence for a hitter whose grasp of the strike zone has fueled his rise to All-Star status. Since he broke into the majors on Opening Day 2022, Kwan has had 264 pitches mistakenly called a strike against him. That’s the third-highest total in the league in that timeframe, behind only Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena, and just ahead of Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge.

The arrival of the ABS challenge system should remedy that.

“He’s going to walk so much,” said Cleveland catcher Austin Hedges. “Guys who truly know the zone like that are going to thrive.”

Kwan sure hopes so. He said he’s eager to “call some of the umpires out,” but described his temperament toward the innovation as more “cautiously optimistic” than “giddy.”

There’s some game theory to it. The Guardians are trying not to overload their hitters with percentages and probabilities, especially in spring training. Hitters have to determine instantly whether to dispute a call; they can’t sift through the various data points to arrive at a decision.

That makes spring training a experimental period. Challenge now and discuss the thought process later. The decision could hinge on the hitter, the count, the score, the pitcher, the inning, whether there are baserunners and other factors.

Kwan compared it to learning how to play blackjack by the book. If you know inherently when to hit, when to stay and when to double down, you’ll make swift, wise choices at the table.

“(As) we get more and more reps,” Kwan said, “we’ll know in that split-second.”

Most balls called strikes, 2022-25
Seiya Suzuki
284
Randy Arozarena
269
Steven Kwan
264
Mookie Betts
256
Aaron Judge
256
Marcus Semien
248
Juan Soto
247
Gleyber Torres
246
Isaac Paredes
245
Marcell Ozuna
241
Once the games count, there will be pressure not to make a false accusation. Kwan challenged a pitch last spring and was wrong, which had him wishing he could disappear from the batter’s box and the TV screen.

“You’re embarrassed,” he said, “because the fans see you’re wrong. The catcher is like, ‘Bro, what are you doing?’ It’s kind of a slight to the umpire. It’s like, ‘Did you really think that was a ball?’ It’s all of these factors that you have to push aside. But when we do, I think it’s going to be really helpful for the game.”

It should be beneficial for Kwan, too, especially on the heels of a season that left him unfulfilled. He received his second consecutive All-Star nod, but his wrist bothered him for a couple months after an awkward slide in May. Even after a midseason cortisone shot helped it heal, he couldn’t find his feel with his swing. His numbers suffered.

“I didn’t have this North Star or this compass to lead myself back,” Kwan said. “That was a little naive of me to just be like, ‘Oh, I know my swing and I know how to get there.’ … I didn’t have enough knowledge on my swing as I should have.”

Over the winter, Kwan worked on his bat speed, which he says is sitting at the best spot of his career. He wants to be more durable and not feel fatigued as a season unfolds. He’s also tackling a new assignment in center field.

The wild card to his season — and to how the Guardians and other teams value him as he inches toward an extension, a trade or free agency — could be how he exploits this new wrinkle within the game.

“He gets a lot of pitches called on him that are off the plate away,” said Guardians manager Stephen Vogt.

Just how far away those pitches are will be key. How bold does Kwan want to be? Can he spot the difference between a pitch that nicks the outside corner versus a pitch that misses by a whisker?

“All of these game theory things are assuming that the pitch is a 50/50 (call),” Kwan said. “You’re like, ‘Ahh, could have been a strike, could have been a ball.’ In (coaches’) minds, if it’s egregious, call it at any point. But now, it’s like, do people actually know what egregious is? You think it’s egregious and now it’s two outs, nobody on and you just wasted one. Now you’re gonna get that (privilege) revoked. It’s exploring, how well do people actually know the zone? If it’s egregious, they say rip it every time, no matter the situation.”

Steven Kwan vs. MLB umpires
2025
926
52
94.7%
2024
741
70
91.4%
2023
948
66
93.5%
2022
885
76
92.1%
Total
3500
264
93.0%
Umpires, by and large, are really good at what they do. But for Kwan, on pitches out of the zone, they have called strikes 7 percent of the time during his career. That’s essentially one erroneous call for every 14 balls Kwan sees. It’s an average of 66 miscues per season, or 2.5 percent of all pitches he sees. Vogt said he can tell when Kwan feels he’s been aggrieved, based on a slight tell in the outfielder’s body language. Kwan has ranked in the top 21 of hitters in undeserved strike calls in each of his four seasons, and in the top 11 in three seasons.

Kwan will now have the authority to erase as many of those as he sees fit, provided the Guardians have a challenge in their holster. Teams get two per game, and a hitter, pitcher or catcher can initiate a challenge. If they are successful, the team keeps the challenge. The Guardians are prohibiting their pitchers from challenging, under the premise that pitchers can’t view the situation objectively.

Kwan is a competent hitter regardless of the count — .285 when behind and .280 when ahead — but a driving force for him the last couple years has been uncorking more aggressive swings when in a favorable spot. That’s when he’s more likely to get a pitch on which he can inflict damage, often an inside fastball he can yank to right field.

Kwan already boasts elite plate discipline and he makes sound swing decisions. He doesn’t chase and he almost never whiffs. Now he can avoid falling behind in the count because of an umpire’s gaffe. Perhaps, as Hedges noted, it leads to more walks. Or maybe it helps him earn more pitches he can ambush.

The Guardians need their leadoff hitter at his best, and maybe this helps him elevate what his best looks like.

“I think it allows me to execute that plan more often,” Kwan said, “because obviously, our idea is swing at strikes and when it’s in your zone, swing as hard as you can, (and) take the balls. So then when it goes awry, it’s like, ‘I took the ball that got called a strike, now I have to switch my plan.’ Now I can just be more convicted in that plan and not worry about the externals.”

I don't think the umpire who called the Canada-Panama game needs the ABS. He was the ABS!

I started charting pitches after the first inning with x's and o's after I saw how many close pitches the ump was getting correctly.
I had 21 o's (missed calls). Around half of those were "too close to call" by the eyeball. Could have gone either way.
ABS showed misses.
Amazing.

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Zach Meisel updates his roster predicdtion

Guardians Opening Day roster projection 3.0: Where Chase DeLauter, Nolan Jones fit (or don’t)

iWth two weeks until the Cleveland Guardians fly north to Seattle for Opening Day, there are some things we know about what the roster will look like, some things we think we know and some things we can’t possibly know yet.

Let’s examine where things stand and what still needs to be decided before the club leaves the Arizona desert for the Pacific Northwest.

Catchers (3): Bo Naylor, Austin Hedges, David Fry

The only thing needing to be sorted out is how often each catcher crouches behind the plate. Manager Stephen Vogt has voiced his belief that Naylor is poised for a breakout season at the plate. Hedges is the defensive mastermind who dedicated his offseason to studying the ways the Guardians could benefit from the new ABS challenge system.

Fry is the wild card; he has spent plenty of time this spring getting reacquainted with catching after recovering from elbow surgery last season. He’s likely to see some action at first base as well, but Kyle Manzardo and Rhys Hoskins can cover that spot, too. If Fry can reincorporate corner outfield into his repertoire, that could deepen the lineup against left-handed pitching.

Infielders (6): José Ramírez, Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, Kyle Manzardo, Rhys Hoskins, Daniel Schneemann

There’s not much to solve here either. Hoskins is technically signed to a minor-league deal, but his inclusion on the Opening Day roster feels more formality than possibility. He shook off a slow start to his spring with a few great at-bats Saturday: a single, a home run and a strikeout that required 13 pitches.

Vogt treasures Schneemann’s ability to play second, short, third or any outfield position, so he’s the obvious choice to snag the utility spot. Perhaps he can even wrestle away some at-bats from Arias against righties.

Outfielders (4): Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, George Valera, Angel Martínez

This is where it gets complicated. The Guardians committed $2 million to Nolan Jones, which shocked, of all people, Nolan Jones. Jones figured the Guardians would non-tender him over the winter after he turned in his second straight dismal season at the plate. Instead, he’s back — and he’s grateful for the chance — but he just doesn’t fit this roster well, and that was the case before he lumbered through spring training. His left-handedness is redundant, and the Guardians want to give opportunities to DeLauter, Valera and other players on the cusp of the majors.

If the Guardians were to designate Jones for assignment, a team could claim him off waivers and pay him his $2 million salary. If he were to clear waivers, he could go to Triple A and the Guardians would be on the hook for his salary. But, well, it’s not as though they’re paying much to anyone else.

Jones became more expendable once Kwan started playing center field this spring. The Guardians have been reticent about committing to anything, but it certainly feels as though Kwan is destined for center. That would leave DeLauter and Valera to handle the corners (with CJ Kayfus, another odd man out, bound for Columbus), and either Martínez or Stuart Fairchild to spell one of them against lefties. Jones doesn’t make sense as the fourth outfielder when all three starters also bat left-handed.

Martínez has had a great camp at the plate, and while the Guardians haven’t gotten a long look at Fairchild yet, he starred for Chinese Taipei in the opening round of the World Baseball Classic. Plus, Vogt knows him well: Fairchild’s major-league debut came as a pinch runner for Vogt with the Arizona Diamondbacks in July 2021. Both also live in the Seattle area, so they grabbed lunch one day over the winter.

Two others who could factor into the mix before long: Kahlil Watson, one of the highlights of the first half of spring training, and Petey Halpin, who already possessed the speed and defensive ability the Guardians covet but now has a shorter swing that helps him hit fastballs.

Starting pitchers (5): Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen, Slade Cecconi

Here we have a game of musical chairs between Allen, Cecconi and Parker Messick for the final two rotation spots. Cantillo is out of minor-league options, and Williams and Bibee figure to anchor the group. [I PUT CANTILLO IN THE BULLPEN AND STAR MESSICK WHO'S LOOKED REALLY GOOD]

Even though Allen has been away from camp while pitching for Panama in the WBC, the Guardians could favor him for experience and workload-related reasons. Messick, who debuted last August, has totaled 133 and 138 innings the last two years. The Guardians can bring him along deliberately for a bit in Columbus until he’s needed in Cleveland. Cecconi totaled 145 innings last season, but missed the first month with an oblique strain.

After the initial six, things get thin in a hurry. Austin Peterson has a triceps injury that could sideline him until April or May. Kolby Allard could be an option if he sticks around on his minor-league deal.

Relievers (8): Cade Smith, Shawn Armstrong, Matt Festa, Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin, Peyton Pallette, Colin Holderman, Connor Brogdon [YES, BROGDON IS A MORE LIKELY 8TH MAN THAN CANTILLO AND HE'S LOOKED GOOD ENOUGH]

The first order of business is to determine whether Hunter Gaddis will have the green light in time for Opening Day. He dealt with forearm soreness earlier in camp, but imaging came back clean, and now it’s a matter of building up his stamina. Vogt said Gaddis should throw off a mound later this week. It doesn’t take a reliever too long to get up to speed, but there’s also no reason for the Guardians to rush it. Gaddis and Smith are tied for the league lead with 162 appearances (including playoffs) since the start of the 2024 season. If Gaddis returns in time, Holderman can be sent to the minors. Brogdon and Pallette, a Rule 5 draft pick, cannot. Pallette said his curveball has long been his best pitch, but he’s impressed Cleveland’s coaches with a fastball that has touched 98 mph this spring.

It’s always possible the Guardians carry someone like Allard as a long relief option early in the season, too. You’ll see three other flashy pitchers at some point this season as well in Daniel Espino, Franco Aleman and Andrew Walters.