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10606
Guardians Place Starting Pitcher Alex Cobb On 15-Day Injured List

Cleveland has placed the right-hander on the 15-day injured list due to a fractured nail on his pitching hand.
The 36-year-old starting pitcher has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a fractured nail in his pitching hand. In two starts with Cleveland since being acquired at the trade deadline, Cobb has gone 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA, four strikeouts, and three walks in 10.1 innings pitched, throwing 100 of his 162 pitches for strikes.

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10608
Guardians thrive in the chaos in a win emblematic of their wild season
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 20: Lane Thomas #8 of the Cleveland Guardians hits a RBI double in the twelfth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on August 20, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
3h ago

8
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NEW YORK — Only four times in the 124-year history of Cleveland’s baseball franchise, a charter member of the American League, has the club stranded more runners than it did Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

Three of those four instances took place before or during the Great Depression.

Anyway, the Cleveland Guardians won Tuesday to reclaim the best record in the American League. Bizarre. Perplexing. And, at this juncture in a wild ride of a surprising, confounding season, on brand.

After a weekend sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers, the Guardians spent most of a four-hour affair with the New York Yankees wasting walks and wizardry-aided bunt singles and limitless zeroes from the team’s relievers. Yet they eked out a win in 12 innings.

Yeah, that’s how this season has unfolded for the Guardians. They thrive in the chaos. Bedlam is their comfort zone. They plant seed after seed of doubt, only to defy logic in the end.

They stranded 20 runners Tuesday. But after one empty at-bat after another with runners in scoring position, they unleashed a six-run 12th inning.

The catalyst, naturally: Lane Thomas, who entered the game with six hits in 53 at-bats since joining the Guardians. Jason Esposito, Cleveland’s run production coordinator, called it from the dugout. David Fry claims to have predicted a double to right field, which is precisely what transpired after Thomas unglued himself from the bench. Surely, every aggravated Cleveland fan cursing at their TV every time a top half of the inning ended with two or three base runners puttering back to the dugout also declared Thomas would snap out of his funk and fuel the Guardians to victory.

“We just needed one (hit) to let everybody loosen up,” Fry said.

The game carried an October feel, with so many long-forgotten plays adding up to a classic we’ll remember in a couple of months should these teams cross paths again in the playoffs. When asked about Matthew Boyd shaking off first-inning home runs from Juan Soto and Aaron Judge to pitch into the sixth, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt asked: “Was that today?”

Before Scott Barlow entered in the 12th, the Guardians received 5 2/3 scoreless innings from their ever-trustworthy bullpen. That included two clean frames from closer Emmanuel Clase, who last logged two or more innings in Game 2 of the 2022 American League Division Series, also at Yankee Stadium.

Clase, of course, pushed for a third inning of work Tuesday, but his requests were denied. September is approaching, by the way, and he has allowed four earned runs. His cohorts at the back end of the league’s top bullpen continue to excel, too. Hunter Gaddis has held the opposition scoreless in 55 of his 61 appearances. Cade Smith has done the same in 51 of 59 outings. Tim Herrin has blanked the opposition in 48 of his 58 outings.

Brayan Rocchio delivered a home run and two bunt singles that only flirted with the third-base line but never crossed it. A desperate relay, with impeccable backup work by Steven Kwan and a lunging tag by catcher Bo Naylor, preserved an eighth-inning tie. Daniel Schneemann, a 33rd-round pick, a 27-year-old rookie and an infielder moonlighting as an outfielder, made a pair of pivotal snags in front of the Bleacher Creatures. An overturned call ruled Jhonkensy Noel made a nifty (and safe) slide into home plate, as he resembled a defensive end laying out to recover a fumble. The Guardians drew 14 walks in a game for the first time in 45 years. And to open the floodgates in the 12th, Fry turned a solidly struck, should-be single into a triple, which he did not anticipate.

“Never when I hit a ball do I think I’ll wind up at third base,” Fry said. “Even when I’m running to third base, I’m like, ‘God, they’re gonna throw it to third.’ But luckily I made it.”

It was a flawed, mind-boggling win. But that’s emblematic of the Guardians’ season.

“Those kinds of games,” Vogt said, “you log so many good experiences through them that are going to help you down the road.”

Cleveland’s lineup has glaring holes; it still could use a left-handed boost from Triple A. The rotation continues to spring leaks. The latest malady is a gruesome fingernail tear for Alex Cobb, who suffered the injury during his last start. He noticed blood leaking from beneath the nail, and when he examined it after his outing, he had to bid farewell to the front half of the nail. He hopes to miss only two starts but acknowledged it’s frustrating, as he made only two starts after recovering from hip, shoulder and blister issues.

“You stay up at night and you shake your head,” Cobb said.

That’ll leave rookie Joey Cantillo to chew up some innings Wednesday, a day after Cleveland leaned on its bullpen to cover 6 2/3 innings. Maybe the Guardians will figure out a way to squeeze out another surprising win. That’s how they’ve functioned for much of this season.

Somehow, they pulled out a victory despite leaving a metropolis on base Tuesday. Somehow, they lead the Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, by percentage points, in the race for the top seed in the AL, even though the journey might be bumpy and nonsensical and maddening at times.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain

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10610
FanGraphics odds for the postseason

they haven;t been paying attention apparently; Guardians are a 92.5% shot at making the playoffs. Twins 82.1% Royals 32.8%
The last I looked the Royals were in 2nd place just 1 game behind the sure thing Guardians.

To miss out on even the Wild Card the G's would have to be surpassed by the Red Sox who are currently 5 1/2 games behind them. I think they are perfectly capable of losing that margin.

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10611
Why the Guardians’ bullpen could be a difference maker in the postseason: Sliders
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CLEVELAND, OHIO - AUGUST 02: Emmanuel Clase #48 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates the team's 8-4 win over the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field on August 02, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
By Tyler Kepner
Aug 23, 2024


If one observation can sum up a sport, consider a post on X this week from Dan Szymborski, a senior writer for FanGraphs:

It’s not about the rotation anymore, folks. It’s about the bullpen. And that’s why the Cleveland Guardians have a real shot at winning a championship.

If you’ve watched baseball for more than the last few years, that’s not an easy statement to make. Starting pitching is supposed to be the surest path to success, and through Wednesday, Cleveland starters had a 4.61 ERA. That ranked 24th in the majors, just ahead of the last-place Oakland Athletics (4.70) and Chicago White Sox (4.71).

But this is baseball in 2024, when how you finish is more important than how you start. Here are the top six teams in starters’ ERA through Wednesday:
Seattle Mariners

3.32
Philadelphia Phillies

3.46
Kansas City Royals

3.54
Pittsburgh Pirates

3.73
Detroit Tigers

3.74
Chicago Cubs

3.79

Four of those teams — Seattle, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Chicago — are in position to miss the playoffs, and none of the four enters the weekend with a winning record. Last season, two of the top six teams in starters’ ERA missed the postseason (San Diego and Seattle), and just one of the top six, the Los Angeles Angels, missed in 2022.

The Guardians, meanwhile, have held first place in the American League Central every day since April 14. Even with a choppy second half, they enter the weekend with a 73-54 record and a near-certain chance to reach the postseason.

“In today’s game, if you get to the playoffs, with how the schedule is laid out, you can lean on your bullpen because typically you’ve got a day off between games,” Guardians pitching coach Carl Willis said. “You have back-to-back games on occasion, but really I think that if, in fact, we can get there and finish this off — which we hope to — our bullpen is built and has the experience here during the course of the year to go out there and do that.”

By that, he means win a championship, which Willis did as a setup man for the 1991 Minnesota Twins. Bullpens were a big deal then, too — Willis got six crucial outs while facing elimination in Game 6 of the World Series — but teams didn’t plan for relievers to carry them through.

Ideally, the Guardians didn’t plan for this, either. The last time they won a playoff series — a two-game sweep of Tampa Bay in the 2022 wild-card round — Shane Bieber went 7 2/3 innings in the first game and Triston McKenzie worked six innings in the next. But Bieber needed Tommy John surgery after two starts this season, and McKenzie was optioned to the minors in June.

They’ve all had to improvise.

“For the past decade, we’ve basically been at the top of the league in starting pitcher innings and performance,” general manager Mike Chernoff said. “This year is a little bit different. We have a few guys who are performing really well, but we’ve been less consistent in getting innings with our starters.

“But our bullpen is picking up over four innings a game, and they’re just being so consistent. And it’s multiple guys, it’s not just one guy, and it’s backed up by their stuff. It’s young guys, so we didn’t know what to expect at the start of the year, but they have developed into these high-leverage roles.”

The Guardians had the majors’ best bullpen ERA through Wednesday at 2.64, more than half a run lower than the next-best mark, the Atlanta Braves’ 3.29. Six Cleveland relievers have pitched in at least 55 games — All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, plus Scott Barlow, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Nick Sandlin and Cade Smith.

“I had to ask the question, ‘Hey, I know Clase is the closer, but who are the other leverage guys?’” said starter Matthew Boyd, who signed in June and has looked strong after Tommy John surgery. “And it was like: ‘Everyone gets outs.’ And that’s the cool thing, we have guys that go get outs by throwing in all different situations.”

No other team has more than three pitchers with 55 appearances, and it’s natural to wonder if Cleveland’s six-pack can stay fresh through October. So far, first-year manager Stephen Vogt has shown the same feel for pitchers as he did in his 16 pro seasons as a catcher.

“Stephen Vogt has done a tremendous job,” Willis said. “And while you look at appearances, obviously we have a handful of guys who are up in the leaderboards, but typically we don’t take them very far beyond 20 pitches. Honestly, when they start to approach the 14-15 mark, we start to look to get the next guy ready.

“All the up-and-downs do count, and do take something out of guys. But the pitches in games, which have been so high-intensity, we’ve been able to manage those and limit those, and hopefully that will keep them healthy.”

Vogt played for the 2021 Atlanta Braves, who won a championship while getting only 20 2/3 innings from their starters in a six-game World Series. That was a bit of an outlier — staffs were exhausted after the short schedule in 2020, and Charlie Morton broke his leg early in Game 1 — but it’s a path the Guardians could follow.

“We may have to,” Vogt said. “But also, with Cobb and Boyd and Bibee and Gavin and Lively, we’ve got five guys now. We’ve pieced it together, we’ve got guys waiting if we need them, and we feel good about it.”

Boyd has helped stabilize the rotation behind Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, who have combined to go 20-13 with a 3.50 ERA in 46 starts. Another veteran, Alex Cobb, arrived from the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline and made two starts before landing on the injured list with a broken fingernail.

Gavin Williams (2-6, 5.13) has been uneven in 10 starts since returning from an elbow injury, giving up three runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Yankees on Thursday, wrapping up a 1-5 trip to Milwaukee and the Bronx.

The Guardians have gone 8-15 in the second half against teams currently holding playoff spots. That’s reason for concern as they look ahead to October, and when they get there, it’s highly unlikely that a starter will, say, pitch all 10 innings in a Game 7 this October, the way Jack Morris famously did for Willis’ 1991 Twins.

But that’s not baseball these days, and that’s why the Guardians have a formula that might really work.

“We 100 percent look at it as a combination of starters, relievers and defense,” Chernoff said. “And at least in the relief pitching and defensive areas, we’ve been really strong and really consistent all year.”
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain

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10612
+Gaddis Smith and Clase have been spectatcular with very few exceptions [Gaddis had one miserable weekend and bounced back quickly].
But the depth behind them is getting thinner: Sandlin was a star at leave RISP but has failed in that important measure lately.
Herrin has had more stumbles lately
Hentges is out for the year.
Morgan has done OK but he's always somewhat suspectible to homers
Avila has been as surprising as any of them
Gillespie, Strzeleck and Gose cycle through as the 8th man in the pen.

Certainly is the team's strength, but it won't win us games if the hitters don't hit and the starters struggle.

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10613
Call-ups, contract extensions and Jhonkensy Noel’s (staying) power: Guardians mailbag
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CLEVELAND, OHIO - AUGUST 25: Jhonkensy Noel #43 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates hitting a solo home run during the second inning against the Texas Rangers at Progressive Field on August 25, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
3h ago


CLEVELAND — The season is winding down. There’s no time to waste. Straight to your questions (which have been lightly edited for clarity).

What would the front office point to as the reason George Valera hasn’t been called up? 800-plus at-bats at Triple A and about an .850 OPS against righties. — BDS

On Sunday, a hitter will walk through the home clubhouse doors at Progressive Field, grab a bat and head to the cages for some morning work. It could be Valera. It could be Kyle Manzardo. Maybe it’ll be Gabriel Arias (ducks). The organization is thrilled with swing tweaks that have Arias crushing Triple-A pitching, for whatever it’s worth. For the sake of balance and power, of course, the lineup could use a prospect with the potential of Valera or Manzardo.

A move to add another left-handed stick is long overdue, as I’ve written for weeks. Part of the issue is David Fry’s elbow. Fry has struggled at the plate for a couple of months, especially against righties. To compound the problem, since he injured his right elbow in late June, he hasn’t bounced around the diamond like he did earlier in the season, when he was tormenting pitchers while hopping from catcher to first base to right field. He should be platooning with Manzardo or Valera, but the club has refused to sacrifice any defensive versatility by optioning one of its utility infielders.

Valera is finally healthy and producing after a couple of seasons full of injured list visits. He has been abysmal against lefties but has destroyed righties, and that’s what the club needs at the moment. He has six homers in his past eight games. Manager Stephen Vogt could play Valera and Will Brennan against righties, and Fry and Lane Thomas against lefties. That would leave one daily spot for Jhonkensy Noel or anyone else showing signs of life.

Where would José Ramírez hit in the 1995 lineup? — Andy

He’d actually be a perfect fit, because you could slide Jim Thome across the diamond to first base a couple of years early and plug in Ramírez at third. Essentially, Ramírez would be replacing Paul Sorrento, who typically batted eighth. But would Ramírez hit eighth? How do you displace Albert Belle, Eddie Murray, Thome or Manny Ramirez? One trick would be to boot Omar Vizquel to the bottom of the lineup and then either slot José in the 2-spot or behind the other sluggers. You could convince me Carlos Baerga should be flipped with one of the Ramirezes, too.

I’ll go with this. You can thank me at the make-believe parade.

1. CF Kenny Lofton
2. RF Manny Ramirez
3. LF Albert Belle
4. 1B Jim Thome
5. DH Eddie Murray
6. 3B José Ramirez
7. 2B Carlos Baerga
8. C Sandy Alomar Jr.
9. SS Omar Vizquel

Do you think a Josh Naylor extension is going to happen? — Seth

I doubt we will have the money to extend both Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor. Who would you prioritize? — Rob

A few things to consider. Naylor has one more year of team control; Kwan has three. A player so close to free agency usually has all of the leverage and ultimately tests the open market, especially with a few years of hefty salaries in the bank thanks to the arbitration process.
Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan both made the 2024 AL All-Star team. (Jamie Sabau / Getty Images)

But with Naylor, how desperately does he want to keep playing with his brother (plus other teammates he’s grown close to), and what will his free-agency outlook look like? He’ll be 28, but he’s a first baseman with an injury history. There will be suitors, sure, but will there be a bidding war? From the Guardians’ standpoint, while Naylor’s power is coveted, they have Manzardo, C.J. Kayfus and Ralphy Velazquez in the first-base pipeline, and they prefer not to clog up the designated hitter spot.

So, that makes Kwan the answer to the second question, especially given his Gold Glove defense and the fact that, despite a severe second-half slump, he has demonstrated he can adapt and improve his offensive profile. He could wind up hitting .300 with an .800 OPS and 15-20 home runs, despite missing a month, and while playing elite defense. He’ll be more expensive than Naylor, but with three years separating him from free agency, the cost shouldn’t be prohibitive.

If you could make one change to the MLB rulebook and your intention was to give the Guardians an advantage over the rest of the league, what change would you make? — Alexander

How about an infield popup is worth five runs? OK, that’s a little mean, but the Guardians do have the highest rate of infield popups in the league. How about no keeping score until the sixth inning, since they boast the best bullpen in the league?

Little confused on September call-ups. How many, and is everybody eligible for the playoff roster? — Sam

Teams can carry 28 players in September, but no more than 14 pitchers. The Guardians will add a pitcher and a position player. As for the postseason roster, anyone on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list when the calendar flips to September is eligible. Anyone in the organization at that time is eligible, too, if they replace someone on the injured list. In 2022, the Guardians used that wrinkle to carry some rookies who didn’t debut until September.

What is your Mount Rushmore of Cleveland player nicknames? — Jake

I’ll go Dr. Smooth (Michael Brantley), Mr. Freeze (Albert Belle, after he smashed a thermometer), Pronk (Travis Hafner, part-project, part-donkey) and Big Christmas (Jhonkensy Noel). Honorable mention to El Pavo (The Turkey, a name José Ramírez called Juan Uribe in 2016), Cookie (Carlos Carrasco), Dirtbag (Jason Kipnis) and Pure Rage (Chris Perez).

I’d be remiss not to mention the apparently not-so-simple OT (Dan Otero) and OP (Oliver Pérez). Josh Tomlin once wondered why Manny Acta referred to him as Little Cowboy instead of just Cowboy. If you ever run into Corey Kluber, I’d advise you not to call him Klubot.

As good as Big Christmas is, wouldn’t a better nickname be “Jhonk” in homage to “Pronk”? — Tron

The problem with that is “Jhonkville” would be on the plaza between the Gateway East Garage and Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, and the Guardians wouldn’t be able to sell tickets to that area as they once did when the right-field mezzanine, the target of Hafner’s majestic home runs, became “Pronkville.”

Where do you stand in the small-brain, medium-brain or big-brain discourse related to Jhonk? Hits ball hard. Strikes out a lot. But also hits ball hard. — Jacob

Noel’s chase rate is a legitimate concern, and it casts some long-term skepticism about his staying power, but that’s a concern for another day, when he’s mired in a funk and the Guardians’ lineup doesn’t sorely need any production it can find.

Fastest to 12 career home runs in Cleveland history:

1. Jhonkensy Noel, 110 at-bats
2. Russell Branyan, 118 at-bats

There’s a significant gap between those two and the next group, which includes Rocky Colavito, Cory Snyder and Tyler Naquin, among others.

It’s easy to resort to comparing Noel to Oscar Gonzalez or Franmil Reyes. Unlike Gonzalez, Noel might benefit from swinging and missing more. Gonzalez’s greatest drawback was he couldn’t resist pitches out of the zone, but he also made enough contact, so he was a massive dude who hit a bunch of weak grounders. If Noel makes contact, on the other hand, the baseball clangs off the hull of the Goodtime III.

Noel might get exposed over a lengthy period as an everyday player, but beggars can’t be choosers. For now, sit back and enjoy the power display. Just be careful wandering the plaza during his at-bats.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain

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10614
9 players exceeding expectations in 2024

Heres' the link if you'd like to read it includes players like Witt and Henderson and Fedde and Flaherty Rooker Bohm and Profar

How about Ben Lively; WAR to date 1.7 Projected WAR for this season? couldn't have been much of anything since his total from 2018 to 2023 was a net 0.0 [1.2 as a rookie in 2017]

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10615
What would it take for a reliever to win the Cy Young Award today? Can it be done?

By Zack Meisel
Aug 29, 2024


CLEVELAND — One pitch separated Baltimore Orioles closer Zack Britton from his idea of a perfect season. With two outs, two strikes and the Yankees’ Brett Gardner at the plate, Britton became self-aware for the first time in his 2016 campaign.

That pristine, ever-vulnerable ERA hung in the balance. A chance at the Cy Young Award hinged on him completing a clean inning.

From the start of May until late August, a span of 43 outings, Britton had held the opposition without an earned run. He secured one save after another, always emerging unscathed. But now, on Oct. 2, with his final regular-season test almost complete, he couldn’t help but consider the stakes.

“Make this the best pitch you’ve made all year,” he thought to himself on the mound.

Britton unleashed a 97-mph sinker that started at Gardner’s thighs and plunged toward the dirt. Gardner waved at it for strike three. Looking back, Britton deems it his best sinker of the year, the pitch that sealed his 0.54 ERA and league-leading 47 saves in 47 chances.

Months earlier, the day after Britton’s scoreless streak ended in late August, his agent, Scott Boras, had planted the idea that he had a legitimate shot at the American League Cy Young Award. Fellow Orioles reliever Darren O’Day would remind him of his streak of scoreless outings, but the Cy Young Award? The title of best pitcher in the league? That never crossed Britton’s mind.

Britton knew about Eric Gagne’s record of 84 consecutive save conversions, but he figured Gagne would be the last reliever to ever claim a Cy Young Award. The Dodgers’ closer won it in 2003.

No reliever has won it since.

“You have to be so much better than any starter,” Britton said. “You have to have something — or a couple things — that wows voters.”

Britton and Boras thought the key was a spotless saves mark. That, 47-for-47 record, paired with a microscopic ERA, would do the trick, or at least give him “more clout.”

“It didn’t,” Britton said, laughing.

He finished fourth, behind Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber.
Zack Britton’s 2016 season was as good as it gets for a reliever. It wasn’t enough for a Cy Young. (Greg Fiume / Getty Images)

Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, no qualified reliever has ever posted a lower ERA than Britton in 2016. The second-lowest ERA belongs to Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, who has registered a 0.58 ERA this season.

Outside of Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the Cy Young field isn’t exactly teeming with worthy candidates. Could Clase break a 21-year reliever drought and become the 10th reliever to win the hardware?

Those who have flirted with glory have their doubts.

“The game has valued relieving,” Britton said, “but not enough to where the voters are going to give a reliever the Cy Young.”

Clase has held the opposition to a .160/.195/.202 slash line this season, the sort of numbers a hapless pitcher would produce in the National League before the designated hitter became universal. He fires a cutter over and over and over the way Mariano Rivera did for the Yankees for two decades, though Clase’s usually clocks in at about 100 mph.

He has proven elite at inducing weak contact, at convincing hitters to chase pitches and at limiting baserunners. His ERA is less than half of the second-best mark in the league, held by Texas Rangers closer Kirby Yates’ 1.28. On Wednesday, he tied Cody Allen’s franchise record with his 149th save.

“He’s the best in the world,” said Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee.

And yet, history tells us Clase stands a slim chance at landing the Cy Young Award.

It’s been 16 years since a reliever finished in the top three in the Cy Young voting in either league. No reliever has finished in the top five since Kenley Jansen in 2017.

Last season, Orioles closer Felix Bautista — with a 1.48 ERA, 110 strikeouts and only 30 hits allowed in 61 innings — finished 11th, the best standing of any reliever. The year before, Mets closer Edwin Díaz — with a 1.31 ERA, 118 strikeouts and 34 hits allowed in 62 innings — finished ninth, the best standing of any reliever.

Liam Hendriks finished eighth in 2021. Devin Williams finished seventh in 2020. Kirby Yates finished ninth in 2019, when he registered a 1.19 ERA with 101 strikeouts and a league-leading 41 saves. In 2018, Blake Treinen recorded a 0.78 ERA across 80 1/3 innings, with 38 saves, 100 strikeouts and only 46 hits allowed. That earned him a tie for sixth.

A reliever’s path to first place is littered with potholes. Advanced statistics emphasize the value of innings totals in an era in which the number of durable starting pitchers is dwindling. Voters have demonstrated they prefer a strong 200 innings over a much stronger 70.

Blake Snell captured the NL Cy Young last year with only 180 innings. No NL reliever received a single top-five tally.

How can a reliever, as Britton said, wow a voter? Francisco Rodriguez finished third in the AL voting in 2008, a campaign fueled by his record-setting 62 saves. His ERA was 2.24 and his WHIP, walk rate and strikeout rate weren’t noteworthy. His numbers were much flashier in 2004 and 2006, and he finished fourth both years.

Craig Kimbrel, who over a four-year span (2011-14) posted a 1.51 ERA with 436 strikeouts and 185 saves, never finished better than fourth.

Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman finished second in 1998 and in 2006, despite different degrees of dominance.

1998: 73 innings, 1.48 ERA, 41 hits allowed, 86 strikeouts, league-leading 53 saves
2006: 63 innings, 2.14 ERA, 48 hits allowed, 50 strikeouts, league-leading 46 saves

In 1998, he threw 73 innings with a 1.48 ERA and garnered the most first-place votes, but fell 11 points shy of Tom Glavine, who pitched to a 2.47 ERA over 229 1/3 innings.

Eight years later, Hoffman wiggled his way into a conversation that revolved around a handful of starters with similar cases. His 2.14 ERA in 63 innings was ultimately deemed inferior to starter Brandon Webb’s 3.10 ERA in 235 frames.

Mariano Rivera, the most prolific closer of all time and the league’s only unanimous Hall of Famer, finished third three times and second once. He led the league in saves in three seasons and had a sub-2.00 ERA on 11 occasions.

“I admire him,” Clase said. “I would love to be as successful as he was.”

Nine relievers have won the Cy Young Award, but their cases don’t tell us much about a reliever’s chances in 2024. Mike Marshall was first, in 1974, on the back of 106 relief appearances covering 208 innings for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He posted a 2.42 ERA as he logged more innings than most starters do now. It was his third consecutive top-four finish.

Dennis Eckersley not only won the Cy Young Award in 1992, he also won MVP that year, in his age-37 season. He produced far better numbers two years earlier, when he finished fifth.

Eckersley in 1990: 0.61 ERA in 73 innings, 41 hits allowed, four walks, 73 strikeouts, 43 saves
Eckersley in 1992: 1.91 ERA in 80 innings, 62 hits allowed, 11 walks, 93 strikeouts, 51 saves
Dennis Eckersley
Dennis Eckersley excelled at a time when relief dominance was considered more award-worthy. (Jerry Wachter / Sports Imagery / Getty Images)

The one example that might offer some insight is Gagne, who in 2003 recorded a 1.20 ERA and a league-leading 55 saves, with 137 strikeouts and 37 hits allowed in 82 1/3 innings. He received 28 of 32 first-place votes to beat Jason Schmidt and Mark Prior. That’s the best relief season, by fWAR, of the last 40 years, and it far outranks any season since.

Of course, WAR might not be the best measurement of a reliever’s output or an accurate reflection of voter values. Writers weren’t gawking at Gagne’s FIP or whiff rate in 2003. They were in awe of his saves streak, his strikeout rate and his ERA.

That’s part of the challenge. Every voter has different preferences, and those criteria have evolved over time as an influx of data has consumed the sport. Eckersley probably wouldn’t win MVP today for his 1992 performance. He’s not even sure he should have won then. Roger Clemens posted an ERA a half-run higher, but over 166 2/3 more innings.

A few years ago, Eckersley told The Athletic’s Chad Jennings that if any starter has “a great year, you can’t challenge that. You can’t touch that.” He stressed how much more valuable an impressive 225 innings are than a near-flawless 60-to-70 innings.

“But,” Eckersley added, “I’m not giving any awards back.”

When Britton completed his signature season, he studied the best seasons by a closer. Rivera’s name popped up plenty, of course. But Britton was most impressed with the pure dominance of Billy Wagner, who four times exceeded 100 strikeouts and four times posted a sub-2.00 ERA.

Wagner finished fourth in the balloting in 1999, when he logged a 1.57 ERA, with 124 strikeouts and 35 hits allowed in 74 2/3 innings for the Astros. He finished sixth in 2006, with slightly inferior numbers for the Mets. Those are the only years he received any consideration.

He saved perhaps his best season for last. In 2010, he posted a 1.43 ERA with 37 saves, 104 strikeouts and only 38 hits allowed in 69 1/3 innings as the Braves’ closer. Giants closer Brian Wilson and Padres closer Heath Bell — who both produced impressive numbers, though not as strong as Wagner’s stats — finished seventh and eighth, respectively, in the NL Cy Young voting. Wagner didn’t receive a single vote.

Brian Wilson: 1.81 ERA in 74 2/3 innings, 48 saves, 62 hits allowed, 93 strikeouts, 2.8 bWAR
Heath Bell: 1.93 ERA in 70 innings, 47 saves, 56 hits allowed, 86 strikeouts, 1.9 bWAR
Billy Wagner: 1.43 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, 37 saves, 38 hits allowed, 104 strikeouts, 2.5 bWAR

That year, five of the top six finishers in the NL Cy Young voting totaled more than 210 innings. Last season, only one pitcher in baseball — Giants ace Logan Webb — exceeded the 210-inning mark.

Fewer workhorses can mean less competition for the top relievers. It can also mean greater appreciation for those who do shoulder a traditional workload.

So what must a reliever do? When Britton’s 2016 season ended and awards season approached, he dissected Gagne’s performance and realized how much his strikeout total boosted his stock.

“You probably have to have 100-plus strikeouts and an ERA significantly under 1.00,” Britton surmised.

Britton only totaled 74 strikeouts, but he couldn’t have scripted a more perfect 2016 season (well, aside from infamously not appearing in the AL Wild-Card Game as his team’s season came to a close with him marooned in the bullpen). In spring training, when Britton allowed only one run in eight innings, Orioles manager Buck Showalter cautioned him, “Don’t peak too soon.” A reliever has no margin for error in crafting a long-shot bid for Cy Young consideration.

Britton’s sinker had a special zip to it all season, even when playing catch in the outfield grass before batting practice. He tormented hitters all year with the pitch and he secured quick outs to preserve his arm so he was available anytime Baltimore clung to a lead.

“If you do your job perfectly,” Britton said, “that should matter.”

He was convinced his ERA and perfect saves mark would give him a chance. Instead, Porcello’s 22 wins appealed to voters, despite Verlander and Kluber having better ERAs, hit rates, strikeout rates and WAR figures. Strangely enough, Britton finished ahead of the other pitchers in the MVP voting.

“If I would’ve struck out 100 guys, with the ERA and the perfect save season,” Britton said, “maybe I finish in the top two or three. It’s hard.”
AL starting pitcher Cy Young candidates
Tarik Skubal

160.1

2.58

193
Cole Ragans

156.1

3.28

187
Logan Gilbert

171.2

3.09

172
Seth Lugo

172.0

3.19

146
Tanner Houck

158.2

3.23

137
Corbin Burnes

159.1

3.28

146

Clase won’t get to 100 strikeouts. In fact, his numbers are similar to Britton’s 2016 stats.

Clase: 0.58 ERA, 4.9 H/9, 0.67 WHIP, 1 HR, 1.2 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, leading the league in saves
Britton: 0.54 ERA, 5.1 H/9, 0.84 WHIP, 1 HR, 2.4 BB/9, 9.9 K/9, led the league in saves

Britton is rooting for Clase to finish better than fourth, to make a statement for relievers worthy of serious consideration.

Skubal is the only qualified AL starter with an ERA below 3.00. Cole Ragans, Logan Gilbert, Seth Lugo, Tanner Houck, Corbin Burnes and others all have similar cases.

Could that help Clase’s candidacy? Can he finish second? If Skubal falters in the final month, could Clase win? And if not this season, when?

All Clase can do is continue to pile up scoreless ninth innings.

“From somebody who has been there, and understands relieving nowadays and the pressure of that,” Britton said, “it’s beyond impressive. It’s a special thing to watch.”
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain

Re: Articles

10616
He quickly obviously deserves it. He has won more games for the Gs than any other pitcher has done for any other team. His statistics are simply overwhelming. Of the very few runs he's allowed are few should not even count because they were gimmes when he let a basestealer move into scoring position uncontested while holding a multiple run lead.
Skubal has been great. He should take a unanimous second place

Re: Articles

10617
On Gavin Williams’ curious August struggles and the ‘tip’ to fixing his fastball
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CLEVELAND, OH - JUNE 21: Gavin Williams #63 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field on June 21, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. It's Williams's major league debut. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images)
By Jason Lloyd


CLEVELAND — Gavin Williams has a problem. No one has the solution yet, but the numbers certainly indicate there’s something wrong. The Guardians are looking into it. They have a few theories thus far, some ideas that they’ve discussed with him, but he’ll need at least a couple of starts to see if they’ve figured anything out.

Williams is throwing his fastball harder than he ever has — and it’s getting pummeled. Williams believes he’s tipping his best pitch.

“I definitely am. My fastball has never been hit as hard as it has,” he said. “Not trying to be cocky about that, but obviously, there’s something going on.”

Williams relies heavily on fastball command. Nearly half of the pitches he throws are fastballs. It sets up the rest of his repertoire.

During August, Williams averaged a career-best 97.1 mph on his fastball, according to Statcast data. The expected batting average off it should’ve been around .238. Instead, batters hit .298.
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The expected slugging percentage should have been around .379, but opponents slugged .532 off it last month. Before that, the hardest opponents slugged against his fastball was .478 last September. Something is up.

He has discussed it with his coaches and even some other hitters on the team to try and target his tell. The Guardians studied enough film to believe they may have identified the issue, although he’s still working to correct it and isn’t ready to declare everything resolved.

After all, Paul DeJong clobbered Williams’ fastball 395 feet for a two-run homer in his start last week against the Royals. The fact DeJong hit it out the opposite way was a bit curious, but he is an excellent fastball hitter and Williams left it over the middle of the plate. The Guardians didn’t seem as concerned about that pitch as some of the other ones that have been getting destroyed.

Williams’ season has been sluggish, and that’s being kind. He had a 6.56 ERA in August and allowed five home runs in just 23 1/3 innings after allowing nine homers in his first 111 career innings.

Some of it can be blamed on pitch tipping but some can also attributed to his late start this season.

Williams was supposed to miss only a couple of weeks when he tweaked his elbow in spring training during a workout with weighted balls. Instead, he missed three months.

Williams was throwing really well in March when he hurt his elbow. He has never really caught back up. The injury was frustrating because the soreness took much longer to dissipate than anyone expected. He has since changed his workouts. He told me he used to make 35-40 throws with Plyo balls every day. After the injury, he has dialed that back to only 10-15.

But he was seemingly making progress. The fastball velocity is certainly there and the movement is exceptional. The likely explanation for his struggles is that he’s giving away the pitch. At least now he thinks he knows what it is.

After the homer to DeJong, Guardians pitching coach Carl Willis visited with him and gave him another reminder about his “tell.” Williams rolled through the next three innings without incident. He could’ve pitched another inning or two, but a rain delay ended his night.

Williams thought he was too reliant on his fastball last year, so he has tried cutting back on its usage. Teams hit .250 off it last year and whiffed 25 percent of the time. The whiff rate held steady through August, which is curious, and the average exit velocity actually dipped a tick from last year. But Williams and the Guardians are convinced he’s tipping.

He’ll get another shot at Kansas City on Monday when the Guardians open a three-game series with first place again at stake. Williams is a massive piece to Cleveland’s postseason hopes. Given all of the rotation injuries, the Guardians desperately need him to return to his most dominant form.
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Emmanuel Clase, Zack Britton and a reliever's rocky path to the Cy Young Award

Ben Lively and Matthew Boyd have been unexpected, and much-needed, surprises. Alex Cobb should help, too. But this rotation is heavily reliant on Williams and Tanner Bibee at the top. Williams has the stuff to dominate and carry a team when he’s right. When he’s not, it leaves a gaping hole in a rotation that has been in triage since April.

His next four starts should come against the Royals, Dodgers, Rays and Twins. We’ll know by then whether the issue is resolved. It needs to be. Williams is crucial to this team’s postseason success. He could be the difference between a deep playoff run or an early October exit.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain

Re: Articles

10620
Emmanuel Clase’s path to becoming MLB’s top closer (and the best in Cleveland history)
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CLEVELAND, OHIO - AUGUST 02: Emmanuel Clase #48 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates the team's 8-4 win over the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field on August 02, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
Sep 3, 2024

19
Save Article

There might not be a more daunting assignment in baseball. The hitter nervously, helplessly traipses toward the plate in the ninth inning. His team is staring at a deficit and the hitter is staring at the imposing gaze of La Kabra, or “The Goat,” the nickname stitched onto Emmanuel Clase’s glove.

Clase carries an ERA below 1.00 and an aura above all others.

Everything about him reeks of his dominance. The way a camera chronicles every step of his journey from the Progressive Field bullpen, down a set of steps, through a padded door and to the mound. The way flames consume the scoreboard, the music stops and the sirens from Lil Wayne’s “Fireman” blare on the ballpark speakers. The way he prowls around the mound like a lion readying to pounce on its prey. All a hitter has as a defense against Clase is a piece of lumber that his 101-mph cutter churns to dust.

“What Clase’s doing,” Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said, “I haven’t seen anything better.”

Clase, at the age of 26, is already Cleveland’s all-time saves leader. He’s in the thick of the American League Cy Young Award conversation, even though no reliever has earned the honor in 21 years.

Perhaps most impressive, Clase has made ninth innings something they rarely are in baseball in any city in any year: stress-free. Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez said he rejoices when Clase enters because it means he can go home early. Yeah, the guy even preserves his teammates’ postgame dinner reservations.

He has converted 28 consecutive save chances, bested only by José Mesa in franchise history. He joined Mesa last month as the only Cleveland relievers with a save on four straight days. He logged two clean innings in a heavyweight bout at Yankee Stadium in mid-August, and he pleaded with Vogt to pitch a third.

“He doesn’t flinch from any moment,” said Royals manager Matt Quatraro.

Cleveland traded its longtime ace, Corey Kluber, to the Texas Rangers in December 2019 for an unproven commodity they hoped would blossom into their ace reliever. There were caveat-riddled comparisons to Mariano Rivera, only because both are right-handed closers with a cutter that zips toward a hitter’s knuckles. No one dared to suggest Clase would follow Rivera to Cooperstown. That’s still presumptuous five years later, but it’s at least conceivable now.

Clase, like Rivera, began as a starting pitcher, a teenager in the San Diego Padres’ system who idolized Pedro Martínez because Martínez filled up the strike zone and never backed down. Clase shifted to a relief role and he studied Rivera, marveling at the way he blended intensity with a calmness on the mound in the most climactic moments.

Like Rivera, Clase doesn’t chase gaudy strikeout totals. The cutter breaks bats, busts rallies and keeps his arm fresh. Clase cherishes any outing that only requires eight or nine pitches, the appearances that give him more ammo for his daily sales pitch to the manager when he insists he can cover the ninth despite pitching three days in a row. He needed only 10 pitches to breeze through the heart of the Royals’ order on Monday to notch his 41st save of the season.

That durability can be traced back to the countryside in Río San Juan, his hometown in the Dominican Republic, where he spent his childhood throwing rocks and climbing trees on the family farm, running along the sandy shores of the beach and swimming in the scenic Laguna Gri-Gri, home to a bird sanctuary and boat tours.

Otherwise, he would show up to local baseball games, uninvited, and mind his own business until someone urged him to take the mound. He would throw one game in the morning and another in the afternoon. His arm never tired. He threw fastball after fastball, clocking in at 82 mph in his early teenage years. No heater kept a straight line, but he had pinpoint command from a young age. That pitch ultimately developed into the cutter he throws today, the one responsible for an opponent slugging percentage of .232 and a 99th-percentile hard-hit rate.

“What he can do with a baseball is incredible,” said Hunter Gaddis, Clase’s setup man.

Clase’s tenure in Cleveland initially stalled, with a PED suspension that spanned the shortened 2020 season.

“It was the impulse to show, even more, what I can do on the field,” he said.

He snatched the club’s closer role from James Karinchak midway through the 2021 season and hasn’t looked back. He deemed a 3.22 ERA and a league-high 12 blown saves unacceptable last season, so he returned to Río San Juan, worked with a trainer who knows him well, and refined his lower-half mechanics.
Teammate Scott Barlow calls Clase’s pre-pitch routine his favorite snapshot of any game. (Nick Cammett / Diamond Images via Getty Images)

Here he is, otherworldly as usual, recording numbers we’ve rarely witnessed any reliever achieve. His 0.71 ERA would be the third-lowest of any qualified reliever in the last 30 years.

It’s his drive to grip the baseball in the diciest moments. It pained him to intentionally walk Aaron Judge in extra innings at Yankee Stadium last month, even though first base was vacant.

It’s his refusal to get rattled. He loaded the bases with no outs, the top of the Twins’ order coming up and the Guardians ahead by two runs in the ninth last month in Minnesota. His heart rate didn’t budge, despite anxiety flowing in the visitors’ dugout like a faulty soda fountain.

“I just looked at him the whole time and that dude didn’t take a deep breath,” Vogt said. “He didn’t gather himself, he didn’t flinch and he just reared back and hit 102.”

It’s his consistency. He’s the first closer with 40 or more saves in three straight seasons since Craig Kimbrel from 2011-14 with the Atlanta Braves.

It’s the fact that the accolades are cool, but they’re merely footnotes to him. The toast from teammates after his 150th save — the one Friday night that moved him past Cody Allen to the top of the franchise leaderboard — was thoughtful. The words from pitching coach Carl Willis were touching. The champagne tasted sweet. The trophy to commemorate the feat will look great in his living room.

That’s all cosmetic, though.

“The real goal is to win a championship,” Clase said.

Not every pitcher is built to handle the burden of outs 25, 26 and 27. When Brad Ausmus was Oakland’s bench coach in 2022, Vogt’s last season as a big-league catcher, Ausmus crafted an analogy to describe the necessary makeup for a successful closer.

Ausmus said if you ask someone to walk across a card table, anyone can stand atop it and walk from one side to the other. But if you place that card table 5,000 feet in the air, who will walk across it?

“Emmanuel would walk across that card table,” Vogt said. … “He’s not afraid.”

When he reaches the mound after his jog from the bullpen, Clase turns his back to home plate, places his glove to his face and recites a prayer to exhibit gratitude for the opportunity. It’s fellow Guardians reliever Scott Barlow’s favorite snapshot from any game. Clase’s presence on the mound, for one, typically means the Guardians are on victory’s doorstep. But it’s also a glimpse into the mental process for a pitcher with the fortitude to handle baseball’s most pressure-packed circumstances. Clase collects his breath, locks in and doesn’t waver until he’s high-fiving his catcher.

What he craves is to enter a game with a World Series at stake, with a championship hanging in the balance and with history hanging from his fingertips. Rivera was at his best in October, and Clase, the best closer in Cleveland’s history, covets the chance to prove he can do the same.

“That,” he said, “is everything I dream of.”
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain