rusty2 wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:05 am Not sure why the Guardians picked him up when they are contending and he needs a roster spot

Guardians are going to have to work on the fringes. Not a lot of good pitchers that are available now or at the trade deadline. Guardians will try one big trade to get a young, contract controllable starting pitcher.

You might remember Spencer Howard was a highly touted prospect at one time. Just like Matt Boyd hoping to find something at a low cost. Maybe fixable.

Guardians mailbag: The best Ramirez in franchise history, front office regrets and more Jun 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
Jul 9, 2024


CLEVELAND — The most common mailbag question I received last week: Who are the Cleveland Guardians going to add at the trade deadline?

Why, Yusei Kikuchi and Brent Rooker, of course.

Really, there’s no way to know for a couple more weeks. Some team that doesn’t seem like an obvious seller at the moment is going to wind up trading a solid player we haven’t yet considered.

The Guardians will continue to scour the market for starting pitching, but also for other upgrades, since the consensus across the league, for now, seems to be that difference-making rotation help will come with a hefty price tag. One league source said not to expect much movement until after the draft.

Until then, we wait. For now, let’s get to your questions.

Is José the best-hitting Ramírez in Cleveland baseball history? — @DollarDogNick

Well, I think he has surpassed Hanley, Harold and Alex.

On a serious note, Manny was a more prolific hitter in his eight years with the franchise, but José is the more well-rounded player, and has the longevity to make the answer to this question more complicated. Manny spent eight years in Cleveland; this is José’s 12th season with the club, and he’s under contract for four more. By the end of his career, Ramírez could be the most accomplished position player in franchise history, regardless of surname. Or, at the least, the most accomplished position player in the past 100 years. (Tris Speaker and Nap Lajoie posted some gaudy numbers in your great-grandparents’ day.)

Manny Ramirez: .313/.407/.592 slash line (152 OPS+), 236 home runs, 237 doubles

José Ramírez: .278/.352/.502 slash line (129 OPS+), 239 home runs, 343 doubles

José recently passed Manny for third on the franchise’s all-time home run list. With four more, he’ll eclipse Albert Belle for second, leaving only Jim Thome (337) in his crosshairs.

Think about the top three home run hitters in franchise history. There’s Thome, standing 6-foot-4, a big Peoria, Ill., farm boy responsible for Progressive Field’s longest homer, a 511-foot blast that landed on Eagle Avenue. There’s Belle, built like The Hulk, with the muscle to obliterate baseballs and make opposing pitchers cower. And then there’s José Ramírez, who stands 5-foot-9 in spikes and was always the runt on every baseball field in his native Dominican Republic. It’s a nice reminder that superstars in baseball come in all shapes and sizes and from all backgrounds.

If the front office could undo any move (signing, free agency, trade) in the past couple years, which one would it be? — @LeeSuggs189830

It’s the one that Cleveland executives have light-heartedly asked Tampa executives to undo. It’s Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers. Caminero is a consensus top-five prospect in the sport who debuted in the majors last summer shortly after his 20th birthday. Myers spent eight months in the Guardians’ system and totaled 60 (rough) innings.

I’ve heard team officials admit, in words I can’t print here, that they royally screwed that one up, which can happen when trading an 18-year-old. So, uh, maybe don’t do that, especially since Caminero had done nothing in the Dominican Summer League to suggest they should believe in him any less than when they signed him two years earlier.

On one hand, they can’t beat themselves up too much for the Myers side of the equation, as he bounced from the Guardians to the San Francisco Giants to the Chicago White Sox in 2022 and then allowed 30 homers in 137 2/3 innings for the Brewers’ Double-A affiliate last year. But he’s enjoying a solid season for the Brewers in 2024, and if anyone were to unlock his potential, shouldn’t it have been Cleveland’s vaunted pitching factory?

Do you think renovations have played a significant role in the offensive improvements the team is seeing from the same group of players? — @Garrabrant19

Well, first, it’s incredible that they sit only 21 homers behind their 2023 total.

Of the players most responsible for Cleveland’s offensive emergence, Josh Naylor has fared better at home than on the road, but Ramírez’s home/road splits are just about identical, David Fry has slugged a bit better on the road and Steven Kwan could hit well on Neptune. Naylor launched a 93 mph sinker over the row of shrubbery beyond the center-field fence at Progressive Field last Friday; it would’ve been a homer in all 30 parks, with or without a manufactured jet stream.

Is there a wind vortex powering the Guardians to new hitting heights?

Guardians at home: .245/.322/.425
Guardians on the road: .248/.318/.402

Or, let’s use sOPS+, which measures performance relative to league performance for a particular split, in this case home/away results.

Guardians at home: 107 sOPS+ (meaning they hit 7 percent better at home than a league-average team does)
Guardians on the road: 107 sOPS+ (meaning they hit 7 percent better on the road than a league-average team does)

Meanwhile, take a look at the same breakdown for, let’s say, the Kansas City Royals.

Home: .267/.330/.444 (115 sOPS+)
Road: .223/.280/.359 (83 sOPS+)

Should Major League Baseball look into the disparity in offensive numbers at home and on the road for the Kansas City Royals? — @KenCarman

Huh. Hadn’t given that much thought.

On paper, it’s about the same roster as last year, but it’s on track for 25-30 more wins. What’s the main reason? — @HoyasAndNatsFan

It’s also a similar roster to the 2022 group that won 92 games. A young roster can produce a wide range of potential outcomes. We’ve witnessed growth from Kwan, Naylor and Fry, continued excellence from Ramírez and that, coupled with a dominant bullpen, has spawned a contender. If it would have unfolded like this a year ago, no one would have been shocked. But many players on this roster will tell you they needed to learn from last year’s failures to ultimately take steps forward. Who would have envisioned four of the club’s top five hitters would be All-Stars?

Has Steven Kwan’s performance this year made it more likely or less likely that he gets a contract extension? — @FranmilsEyebrow

Probably less likely. It’s certainly raised the price tag for his first round of arbitration this winter, which could give him less incentive to sign a long-term deal. After 2024, he’ll have three seasons of arbitration before he can test free agency. Every year a player inches closer to free agency, it becomes more difficult to sign them to an extension. Every year a player wins a batting title and posts a top-10 OPS, it becomes exponentially more difficult to sign them to an extension. It’ll probably cost the Guardians two or three times what it would have after his rookie season in 2022.

Is there an Andrew Miller-type reliever available? Feels more attainable than a front-line starter with multiple years of control. — @bballcoachdrew

This should be a viable contingency plan, because off days are more frequent in October, so a manager can empty his bullpen in a playoff game without wondering how the group will survive, say, 26 games in 27 days. There’s no better example, of course, than the 2016 Indians, who rode Miller and Cody Allen to the World Series. But that team still needed Corey Kluber to pitch at his peak level to advance that far.

So, ideally, Tanner Bibee would join two or three other dependable starters, whether that’s Gavin Williams, Triston McKenzie, Ben Lively or some trade acquisition. But the front office shouldn’t ignore the option of adding a reliever, either. Some possible candidates: Tanner Scott (Marlins), Carlos Estévez (Angels), Pete Fairbanks (Rays), Jason Adam (Rays), Yimi García (Blue Jays), and Kyle Finnegan (Nationals).

Oakland’s Mason Miller is every team’s top choice, but with five more years of control, the Athletics can hold out for a godfather offer.

Will David Blitzer ever speak to anyone in the CLE media? — @CleSportsFan34

Blitzer has only lurked in the shadows, in part because the Guardians don’t want him to be viewed as some savior waiting to take over. So, we can only assume, then, that he’ll pump up the payroll to $600 million when he controls the franchise in a few years.

Who’s accountable for giving Deyvison De Los Santos back to the D-Backs for the cost of a Nissan, and choosing to go with Ramón Laureano and Estevan Florial instead? — @PaulieB621

Florial was always going to have a leg up on De Los Santos for a roster spot because they traded an actual asset for him in Cody Morris (who is pitching for the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate). Laureano was guaranteed a spot because he was guaranteed $5.15 million. It only cost the club $50,000 to host De Los Santos for the spring. Maybe the Guardians taught De Los Santos everything he knows, and it’s validation that their hitting development has improved. Maybe, with the right-field wind vortex, he would be challenging Aaron Judge for the league lead in homers.

The reality is, it’s tough to keep a 20-year-old on your roster for an entire season. They knew that going in, which made it a strange selection in the first place, especially with similarly profiling hitters in Johnathan Rodriguez and Jhonkensy Noel (and Florial) already on the 40-man roster. De Los Santos’ slash line for Arizona’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates this season, by the way: .332/.381/.652.

Given the state of the rotation, do you ever see a world in which they kick the tires on Trevor Bauer, even if it’s Triple A first? — @CLEBrownsfan84

I’ll stress this one, final time: There are 30 MLB teams. If you ranked them in order of likelihood of signing Bauer, the Guardians would rank 31st.

Thinking about the Guardians’ need for rotation help, wondering which teams post-1968 had the weakest starting pitching but still managed to make the World Series? — @mrmuleman

Let’s limit this to the Wild Card era (1995 to present) since it’s more representative of today’s postseason setup. And let’s use FanGraphs’ ERA-minus metric, which measures performance relative to the league standards since, for example, the Guardians’ starting pitching ERA of 4.52 doesn’t look great in 2024, but would’ve been exemplary at the height of the steroid era a quarter-century ago. (We’ll also exclude the shortened 2020 season.)

The worst rotations, by ERA-minus, for a team that reached the World Series in that span:

2006 Cardinals: 109 (meaning their rotation was 9 percent worse than league average)
2014 Giants: 108
2023 Diamondbacks: 107
2015 Royals: 106
1997 Indians: 106

Cleveland’s starting pitcher ERA-minus in 2024 (entering Monday’s action): 115, tied with the 32-58 Rockies.

for what little he's worth, I'm much happier with Spencer Howard than Trevor Bauer.

I would be OK bringing back Quantrill but it would cost more than a good field no hit AA catcher that we got for hm. Actually we have a good hit OK field catcher in Lake County [Cooper Ingle, leading the Midwest League in batting] who could interest the Rockies.

I am sure no one has any interest in Mike Clevinger who is, once again and as usual, on the injured list.

Too late for Corey Kluber to the rescue.

Guardians notes: José Ramírez in the Home Run Derby, Gavin Williams’ new-ish pitch, more KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JUNE 29: José Ramírez #11 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates as he runs the bases after hitting a home run against the Kansas City Royals in the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium on June 29, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
3h ago

10
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DETROIT — Two years ago, José Ramírez, forced to bat right-handed because of a thumb injury that eventually required surgery, made a first-round exit from the Home Run Derby.

The Cleveland Guardians third baseman will have no such restrictions next week when he seeks revenge. Junior Betances, a longtime hitting coach in the organization, will pitch to him. Ramírez hasn’t yet decided whether he’ll hit lefty or righty. He said it depends on what feels best that day and what advantages he can attain from the dimensions of Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

Ramírez will have four Guardians All-Star teammates to supply him with Gatorade or towel him off during breaks from each hacking session.

“It’s going to feel like we’re at home,” he said through team interpreter Agustín Rivero.

No Cleveland hitter has ever won the Derby. Albert Belle participated three times, but never came out on top. He fell to Frank Thomas in the final round in 1995. Jim Thome (twice), Manny Ramirez, Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana also came up short. José Ramírez lost to Juan Soto in the opening round in 2022.

Guardians manager Stephen Vogt dismissed the notion that a night of relentless aiming for the fences can derail a hitter’s swing mechanics, citing Julio Rodríguez’s second-half surge last year. Belle credited the event for helping him regain his power in 1995, when he slugged 36 of his 50 homers in the second half.

“Who am I to get in the way of anybody who wants to do that?” Vogt said. “He wants to do that. Let’s go. Go show the world your power.”
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Path to the All-Star Game for 5 Cleveland Guardians

Gavin Williams’ new slider isn’t really a slider at all. It’s a cutter. But he wants it to be a slider.

Got that?

Let’s rewind. Last year, Williams featured a fastball, slider, curveball and, once in a blue moon, a changeup. This year, he still has the fastball and curveball and he’s thrown two changeups in his two starts, but his slider has registered as a cutter on the league’s tracking devices.

That’s in part because he’s throwing the pitch much harder, but it’s a work in progress. In fact, because of a tweak to the grip, the pitch has looked different in the two starts he has made since returning from an elbow injury.

Williams’ slider in 2023: 84.9 mph

His cutter in his first start in 2024: 91.6 mph

His cutter in his second start in 2024: 88.3 mph

Pitching coach Carl Willis said the slider or cutter or Secondary Pitch No. 2 or whatever one wants to dub it had more depth and more horizontal movement on Monday, when he blanked the Tigers for 5 1/3 innings. Ultimately, they want it to resemble a slider more than a cutter, but they also want to protect his elbow, which Willis said is why the pitch might look different and why it remains a work in progress.

In other news, Williams’ fastball averaged 97.5 mph on Monday.

Spencer Howard enjoyed July 4 festivities at the beach in his native Paso Robles, Calif., a rare midseason respite for a big-leaguer. He was in DFA limbo, awaiting word from his agent on the identity of his next team after the San Francisco Giants had severed ties with him. The move wasn’t unexpected, as San Francisco was welcoming back a slew of pitchers from the injured list.

So Howard drove three hours south to spend a few days with friends and family, play catch and lift weights at a local tennis club. And then he learned the Guardians had acquired him.

“I was stoked,” said Howard, who is scheduled to start for Cleveland on Thursday.

He arrived at Progressive Field last weekend to watch his new team take two of three from his old team, which he described as “strange.”

The Guardians’ desperate search for starting pitching led them to a former top-50 prospect who has yet to find his big-league footing. The Philadelphia Phillies snagged Howard in the second round of the 2017 draft and then dealt him to the Texas Rangers in a deal that landed them Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy at the 2021 trade deadline. The New York Yankees scooped him up for a month last summer. He signed with the Giants near the end of the 2023 season. Now, he’s a Guardian — all of this before his 28th birthday.

“The Philly-to-Rangers trade was every emotion,” he said. “That was the team I thought I was going to be with forever. … Going from there to the Rangers, that one was weird, foreign, an emotional roller coaster for a bit.”

This latest relocation didn’t take the same toll. Howard owns a 6.93 ERA across 139 innings in the majors. Opponents have logged a .296/.371/.521 line against him.

Ah, but this is Cleveland, the organization with the heralded pitching factory. Surely, they’ll cure him.

“Everybody has this idea,” Willis said, “that they’re going to Cleveland and they’re going to sprinkle pixie dust or whatever the heck it is.’”

Wait, that’s not how it works?

Cleveland’s brass has studied Howard’s delivery and his pitch metrics. Willis prefers to watch a new pupil operate before suggesting any sort of overhaul.

“What we are able to do,” Willis said, “is give them some comfort and confidence to believe that all we want to see is you go out and try to show us the best version of you. How do you pitch? What do you do? Where’s your best location with each pitch? Are you comfortable doing this? Are you uncomfortable doing that? We’re not making suggestions right off the bat. Let a guy go out and pitch and be himself and show us what we have to work with.”

Angel Martínez went 0-for-3 in his major-league debut on June 22. Since, he has reached base in all seven games in which he has appeared.

In that stretch:

Game 1: two hits
Game 2: two hits, one walk
Game 3: one hit, three walks
Game 4: two walks
Game 5: one hit, two walks
Game 6: two hits
Game 7: one hit (a homer)

Martínez and Riggs Stephenson (in 1921) are the only players in franchise history to reach base multiple times in six of their first seven games. Martínez and Stephenson each reached 16 times in total. The only player in Cleveland history to reach more? Steven Kwan, who reached base 20 times in his first seven games.

Terry Pluto likes Martinez:

Martinez is the most exciting prospect to be promoted this season from the minors. I talked to Guardians broadcaster Tom Hamilton a lot. In the middle of March, he was raving “about this Martinez kid. You gotta see him. He’s the real thing.” I checked some scouting reports and videos. They were promising. He’s 22, 6-foot and 200 pounds. He is going to get bigger and stronger. He consistently was one of the youngest players in the league as he advanced through the farm system. I projected him as an outfielder. He can compete with Tyler Freeman in center and/or Will Brennan in right field. Either way, he’s going to play … a lot. He’s a switch hitter and athletic.

Steven Kwan, the Guardians’ new approach, and the ‘lucky’ power hitter Jul 6, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan (38) hits a solo home run in the second inning against the San Francisco Giants at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
By Eno Sarris
6h ago

Barrel rate is a great statistic. It evaluates contact in a way that is more predictive of future power than just about any other single number out there, and it starts telling you something after just 50 balls in play. It’s great early in the season when the ball may just have bounced the wrong way a few times and robbed a player of the power production he deserves.

But we’re now past the halfway mark. That’s a lot of opportunity for the luck to balance out. If you look at a list of the best barrelers in baseball now, it’s mostly just a list of the biggest sluggers. You can pick out Oneil Cruz, Taylor Ward, and Fernando Tatis Jr. as top-20 in Barrels who are underperforming that number, but there aren’t many bottom-20 barrelers that are somehow still hitting for power. One name sticks out on that list as having above-average power right now while still ranking poorly by Barrel rate, though: Steven Kwan. More on him shortly.

Let’s try to find the luckiest hitters by using Barrel and slugging percentages. Here’s a really simple look at slugging percentage minus barrel percentage — a high number here would theoretically mean that a player has so far outproduced his true talent power.

Steven Kwan
CLE
0.531
0.021
0.510
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
0.600
0.141
0.459
Jose Miranda
MIN
0.534
0.079
0.455
Bryce Harper
PHI
0.574
0.123
0.451
Rafael Devers
BOS
0.593
0.146
0.447
Kyle Tucker
HOU
0.584
0.137
0.447
Christian Yelich
MIL
0.532
0.086
0.446
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
0.636
0.195
0.441
Jose Ramirez
CLE
0.533
0.093
0.440
Trea Turner
PHI
0.516
0.080
0.436
Mookie Betts
LAD
0.488
0.060
0.427
Josh Smith
TEX
0.457
0.032
0.426
CJ Abrams
WSN
0.495
0.072
0.423
David Fry
CLE
0.497
0.075
0.423
Carlos Correa
MIN
0.513
0.095
0.418
Jurickson Profar
SDP
0.492
0.075
0.418
Luis Rengifo
LAA
0.442
0.028
0.414
Bobby Witt Jr.
KCR
0.564
0.150
0.414
Isaac Paredes
TBR
0.470
0.059
0.411
Freddie Freeman
LAD
0.501
0.101
0.401
There’s Kwan again, right at the top. But before we say that the case is closed, let’s consider how much contact he makes. This Barrel percentage here has batted balls as the denominator, and if you make a bunch of contact, you’ll get more chances at barrels. What you’ll see is that 14 of these 20 hitters have strikeout rates in the best third of the league. They’re making the most of their power by not striking out.

It really doesn’t make sense to compare a metric that is divided by balls in play to one divided by at-bats, so let’s try this again, using the Barrel percentage that is divided by plate appearances. Instead of slugging percentage, let’s use isolated slugging percentage, which takes out luck on singles (by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage). And let’s rank players in both Barrels/PA and ISO and compare the ranks instead of comparing the statistics themselves.

Here’s another try at finding the luckiest power hitters in baseball so far this year.

Steven Kwan
CLE
0.168
1.7
129
Isaac Paredes
TBR
0.203
4.1
125
Daulton Varsho
TOR
0.194
3.8
114
CJ Abrams
WSN
0.219
5.1
111
Josh Smith
TEX
0.161
2.2
104
Jeimer Candelario
CIN
0.211
5.2
98
David Fry
CLE
0.199
4.8
92
Mookie Betts
LAD
0.184
4.5
80
Spencer Steer
CIN
0.199
5.3
71
Dylan Moore
SEA
0.198
5.3
71
Joey Ortiz
MIL
0.176
4.3
68
Cedric Mullins
BAL
0.160
3.6
66
Luke Raley
SEA
0.188
5.2
65
Mitch Garver
SEA
0.188
5.3
63
Carlos Santana
MIN
0.179
4.9
61
Thankfully, the guys who didn’t pass the sniff test before (Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr. among others) are gone. This list contains more of the middling power bats that could conceivably be over their skis in terms of what they’ve earned so far with their batted ball metrics.

It also contains Steven Kwan. Again.

But here’s another thing about Kwan, and all the Cleveland Guardians this year, really. They made contact last year (best strikeout rate in baseball) and they’re making contact this year (fourth-best in the big leagues). They didn’t hit the ball hard last year (last in hard-hit rate and last in Barrels per batted ball) and they don’t hit the ball hard this year (last in hard-hit rate, second-to-last in Barrels per batted ball).

One thing that’s changed for both Kwan and all the Guardians? They’re pulling their fly balls more now. They were second to last in how many fly balls they pulled last year, and this year they are third in that statistic. Pulled fly balls and pulled Barrels go further than opposite field contact. The slugging percentage to the pull side in the air across the league is 1.388, to the opposite field in the air it’s .286. That’s a massive difference.

“I’m not trying to hit the ball the other way. I don’t hit the ball relatively hard, so if I can hit it to the pull side, I can make relatively more damage,” said Davis Schneider of the Toronto Blue Jays this week, echoing the thinking of most of the Guardians hitters, it seems.

“I couldn’t hit home runs at a young age,” said Kwan this spring. “Now I can add to it. I think what I used to think was my ‘A’ swing was really like a ‘B’ swing. Now I add intention and anticipation and effort sometimes.”

Selectively pulling the ball in the air can do wonders for your power. Back to that second list, 12 of those 15 players are in the top third of the league when it comes to pulling their fly balls. Another two are above average in that regard. The last player is Mookie Betts. It seems we have failed to find lucky power hitters once again.

Some outlets have included spray angle (the angle at which a ball is hit horizontally, so the pull or push factor) in their expected stats. PitcherList has it in their expected wOBA, and Matan K has an app that allows you to include spray angle. If you look at the top 30 “luckiest” power guys from our last list and use Matan’s xwOBA, you’ll find that these players are the luckiest hitters so far:

Luis Rengifo
LAA
0.351
0.294
-0.057
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
TOR
0.332
0.278
-0.054
Josh Smith
TEX
0.371
0.323
-0.048
Steven Kwan
CLE
0.412
0.369
-0.043
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS
0.298
0.268
-0.030
Ah! Well. Kwan may be making a ton of contact, and pulling more fly balls, but no matter what approach we take, the numbers don’t believe the newfound power. He — along with many of the other Guardians that are hitting for more power this year with the new approach — will make a fascinating watch in the second half.

These new expected numbers that take into account which direction a hitter hits the ball are probably worth considering when you’re appraising these five players. But it also feels like a hollow victory. As a group, these five hitters have averaged eight homers so far on the year and even in their present state aren’t thought of as power hitters. That’s a big part of the appeal of in-game power: It’s hard to fake. You don’t usually continue lucking your way into homers, in the end.

Three Cleveland Guardians takeaways on the first half of the season CLEVELAND, OHIO - JULY 03: José Ramírez #11 of the Cleveland Guardians runs out a fly ball to left for an out during the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field on July 03, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. The White Sox defeated the Guardians 8-2. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel


CLEVELAND — Baseball is hard to predict. A season hinges on the performance of so many different contributors. For a young team like the Guardians, forecasting who might blossom, who might not belong, and what it will all add up to is a difficult task.

It’s surprising enough that they are sitting in first place at the All-Star break, with one of the best records in the league. It’s exponentially more surprising how they’ve reached this point.

Here are three takeaways from a first half no one would have predicted.
This isn’t your 2023 offense

Pretend it’s March 1, 2024, and I ask you to peer into your crystal ball.

Fill in this blank: Four of the top five hitters in the Guardians’ lineup this season will ___.

A. Be rookies
B. Be All-Stars
C. Be offloaded to the Nippon Ham Fighters
D. Finish the year with single-digit home run totals

OK, so maybe in that context, “B” doesn’t seem so far-fetched. An offense that couldn’t muster much of anything in 2023 is sending four representatives to the All-Star Game. A lineup that lacked thump last season now powers the ball out of the ballpark regularly, with or without a healthy jet stream.

José Ramírez remains one of the sport’s golden standards, even into his 30s. He and Josh Naylor are threatening to become the first Cleveland sluggers since Travis Hafner in 2006 to reach the 40-homer mark. Steven Kwan has emerged as the game’s most prolific leadoff hitter, an immediate pain for opposing pitchers the instant they finish their warmup tosses. David Fry, a fringe roster candidate in the spring, will spend the All-Star break at home in Irving, Texas, as he planned all along — only he’ll have to dip out on Tuesday and head west on I-30 to play in the All-Star Game.
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Steven Kwan, the Guardians' new approach, and the 'lucky' power hitter

The kids are all right, too. Angel Martínez, an on-base machine, has thrived in the No. 2 spot in manager Stephen Vogt’s lineup. Daniel Schneemann, a 27-year-old rookie, has bounced around the diamond and batted all over the order. Jhonkensy Noel has provided some pop in a small sample.
This isn’t your typical Cleveland rotation

It’s the greatest twist of a magical, oft-confounding first half: The traditionally stout starting staff is not the leading contributor to the club’s first-place standing.

Pretend it’s March 1, 2024, and I ask you to peer into your crystal ball.

Answer this question: The Guardians sport one of MLB’s best records at the All-Star break. How do you imagine Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Gavin Williams are faring?

A. Like a three-headed ace monster
B. Like Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz, but taller
C. Uh, they have made two, 16 and three starts, respectively

The rotation hasn’t been Cleveland’s top trade deadline priority since the club acquired Ubaldo Jiménez in July 2011. Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively carried the group in the first half, but they need help. Williams is a start. McKenzie and Logan Allen are in Triple A. Spencer Howard didn’t exactly make a great first impression. Matthew Boyd, recovering from Tommy John surgery, isn’t the savior. Bieber is lost for the season.

Cleveland’s rotation desperately needs help, which feels strange to type, especially given the team’s standing.
This is the league’s best bullpen

Pretend it’s March 1, 2024, and I ask you to peer into your crystal ball.

Fill in the blank: In July, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin will be ___.

A. All-Star snubs
B. Reputable middle relievers for the Triple-A Columbus Clippers
C. Reputable middle relievers for the Staten Island FerryHawks of the Atlantic League

Smith didn’t officially learn he’d be on the Opening Day roster until about eight hours before the first pitch of the season. Herrin was on the outside looking in before a slew of injuries swept through the bullpen. Gaddis was being stretched out as a starter at the beginning of spring camp.

All three, however, have been essential in fueling the league’s top bullpen. Gaddis, Smith and Emmanuel Clase all rank among the league leaders in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Many relievers would be thrilled with an ERA equal to the ERAs of Gaddis, Herrin and Clase added together. Those three and Smith have each allowed exactly one home run this season. They’re the reason the Guardians hold a substantial lead over the rest of the league in relief ERA.
Honorable mention: This new coaching staff has made a seamless transition

There’s a first-time manager who is replacing a future Hall of Famer and, until 21 months ago, was still playing. There’s a new bench coach, a new assistant hitting coach, a new field coordinator, a new third-base coach and a new bullpen coach. And the group has run an efficient, effective operation.
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Three stories that illustrate Guardians manager Stephen Vogt's storybook baseball life

Vogt credits his All-Star cast of mentors for preparing him for the opportunity. He knew from his days as a minor leaguer that he wanted to coach eventually. He learned from Matt Quatraro in the infancy of his professional career, from Bob Melvin in Oakland, from Craig Counsell and Pat Murphy while he was injured for a year in Milwaukee and from Brian Snitker during a World Series-winning season in Atlanta.

After a game in Detroit last week, as Tigers manager A.J. Hinch headed for the postgame interview room, Vogt approached him in the hallway outside the visitors’ clubhouse. “Love managing,” Hinch joked, a few minutes after his club eked out a win by escaping a ninth-inning jam. “It’ll get much harder,” he told Vogt, who seems like a heavy favorite to win AL Manager of the Year in his first season. Vogt simply smiled and tugged at the gray hairs infiltrating his beard, a nod to the stress the role can cause, even during a strong first half.

Cleveland Guardians
Record: 58-37

Entering the season with roughly 1-in-3 odds of making the playoffs — similar to the Marlins, if you can believe it — the Guardians now have the fifth-best playoff odds in the majors. So, yeah, they’re on the buy side, and according to Zack Meisel, their priorities are clear: “Help in the rotation, more help in the rotation, even more help in the rotation and then more help in the rotation.” (Though if a right-handed bat were to fall in their lap, they probably wouldn’t say no.) The fact the Guardians had three of the first 48 picks in this year’s draft — including No. 1 overall — could give them some license to be especially aggressive in buying into this team that’s spent three months proving it’s a legitimate contender.

From a writer:

AL Central

This was a division picking early. Cleveland won the first overall pick in the draft lottery, and spent it on Travis Bazzana, who was #2 on my board. They presumably saved a couple million, because they were able to get a couple impressive prep arms in Braylon Doughty (CBA-36) and Joey Oakie (3-84), the later ranked #30 on my board. I also liked Cameron Sullivan, a prep righty from Indiana in the 7th

Guardians second-half storylines to watch, starting with the trade deadline picture ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - JULY 13: Tyler Freeman #2, Angel Martínez #1 and Steven Kwan #38 of the Cleveland Guardians react after defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 4-2 at Tropicana Field on July 13, 2024 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
5h ago



CLEVELAND — For the Guardians, the first half was about exceeding expectations. It was about a new manager making the transition appear seamless as he replaced a future Hall of Famer. It was about a once-thumpless lineup pumping up its home run total. It was about José Ramírez extending his peak, Josh Naylor swinging an angry bat and Steven Kwan flirting with the .400 mark. It was about a bullpen full of unfamiliar faces coming to the rotation’s rescue time and time again.

It was about a team avoiding the letdown everyone was so sure would strike, a long, drawn-out free-fall back to reality for a club few anticipated winning more than 85 games.
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Three Cleveland Guardians takeaways on the first half of the season

And now, for the Guardians, the second half is about keeping the foot on the accelerator. It’s about a pennant race. The joyous journey through 162 games will reach critical mass and the results will carry more weight.

How much magic does this Guardians group have left?
Will the front office land the necessary additions?

Like many teams, the Guardians need a boost in the starting rotation. It’s not just a matter of finding someone to hand the ball to in, say, Game 3 of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium. They need starting pitching help just to survive the 162-game grind.

Remember the old “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain” bit? The Guardians are similarly short in confidence-instilling options. “Williams and Bibee and maybe Ben Lively” doesn’t have a ring to it. “Gav and Tan and prayer is the plan” doesn’t roll off the tongue.

A lot of the trade deadline scuttlebutt has centered on how difficult it will be for contenders to acquire a difference-maker for their rotation. But once more sellers emerge, there should be enough supply to meet the Guardians’ demands. They oughtn’t be picky. Their rotation ranks last in the majors in WAR. Even if they don’t obtain a front-line starter, snagging someone who can simply chew up innings would be beneficial.

The work for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff doesn’t end there, though. There’s room for another bat. Maybe a reliever, too. The Guardians have the luxury of an abundance of defensive versatility, with Daniel Schneemann, David Fry and Angel Martínez bouncing around the diamond, so they could assimilate virtually any hitter to the fold via trade.

Cleveland’s front office has typically been aggressive when the club soars past expectations for the first four months of a season. They acquired Ubaldo Jiménez in 2011 (though that was more pseudo-contention than this) and Andrew Miller (plus Brandon Guyer and, almost, Jonathan Lucroy) in 2016. The last few years, the club has slogged through the first half, leading to selling in 2021 and 2023 and silence in 2022, despite an eventual surge to the postseason.

This year is different. The Guardians have stood beside the league’s titans since Opening Day. The fan base seems galvanized, with sparkling attendance figures. It seems like a prudent time for the front office to pounce and round out the roster with some upgrades.
Which rookies will prove they belong?

There are, essentially, four everyday players in Cleveland’s lineup. Manager Stephen Vogt never has to hesitate to scribble down the names of Kwan, Ramírez, Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez. But everything else is up for grabs. Fry has fallen off, calling into question whether he’s better suited for a part-time role. Bo Naylor and Will Brennan have yet to seize daily playing time. Tyler Freeman hasn’t really moved the needle. And then there’s a collection of rookies trying to solidify their standings.

Martínez has thrived, albeit in a tiny sample. Schneemann and Jhonkensy Noel have flashed some helpful traits. Brayan Rocchio has underwhelmed as the regular shortstop. Kyle Manzardo didn’t offer much thump in his first trial. Johnathan Rodriguez has made a couple brief cameos. The Guardians need some of these guys to demonstrate they should be part of the core moving forward.
Can the bullpen maintain its dominance?

One way to compensate for an uncharacteristically lackluster rotation? Boast the league’s most prolific bullpen. What Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, Tim Herrin and, of course, Emmanuel Clase have accomplished this season has been remarkable, especially considering the three rookies weren’t tickets for the big-league bullpen until late in spring training. Nick Sandlin, Scott Barlow, Sam Hentges and even Pedro Avila have helped, too.

The question is, can this group maintain this level of production, given how much Vogt has leaned on them? Hentges is sidelined with shoulder inflammation, his second stint on the injured list. The three rookies are new to this, to varying degrees. Fifteen AL relievers have made at least 43 appearances. Five of them pitch for the Guardians.

There was supposed to be depth down below, but injuries have derailed what were shaping up to be promising seasons for Franco Aleman and Nic Enright. Andrew Walters, the organization’s second-round pick last summer, has fought command issues at Triple A. It might behoove the club to add another steady reliever for the home stretch.
The second-half schedule isn’t very forgiving

A trip to Philadelphia is the ultimate litmus test, and the Guardians will experience it right before the July 30 trade deadline. So is a four-game series against the Orioles a few days later. A four-game set over three days in Minneapolis in early August isn’t ideal for a team with starting pitching problems. A road trip against the Brewers and Yankees in mid-August is no treat, either. The Guardians have a beast of a trip to face the Royals, Dodgers and White Sox as they zig-zag across the country in early September. The White Sox, the one soft spot on that 10-day voyage, have more wins against Cleveland than any other team this season.

The Guardians play 13 of their final 16 games at Progressive Field, where they own an MLB-best 30-11 record thus far. That stretch includes consecutive four-game sets against the Rays and Twins, a trip to St. Louis to battle a Cardinals team that could be in the thick of the NL playoff race, a quick visit from the Reds and then a three-game series with the Astros — who have resurrected their season — to end the regular slate.

Hasn't been a lot of attention paid to the very weak first half of July by Ramirez. Jose has on occasion got mired in lengthy slumps. They need his bat back to its April-June success asap.
No doubt Fry will not return to his enormous level of success but he's got to do a lot better than the 3-30 he totaled the weeks before the All Star game.

It’s the perfect time for the Cleveland Guardians’ front office to strike: Meisel Nov 10, 2023; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt, middle, and president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, left, and general manager Mike Chernoff, right, talk to the media during an introductory press conference at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
5h ago

14
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CLEVELAND — The clock had ticked past midnight, trade deadline day had officially arrived and Cleveland’s front office had finalized an agreement to acquire the ultimate prize.

Andrew Miller, the 6-foot-7 slider-slinging southpaw, an otherworldly reliever planted on Earth to post strikeout-to-walk ratios that simple humans couldn’t fathom, was coming to Cleveland. The club’s executives, giddy about their blockbuster trade with the New York Yankees, didn’t want to disturb Miller or the other involved players so late at night. So, they contained their excitement and kept the deal quiet until morning.

All the while, another key target was keeping them in limbo. The team had committed to sending four prospects to the Yankees, plus another four to the Milwaukee Brewers for catcher Jonathan Lucroy — if, that is, he was willing to sign off on relocating to Cleveland. Lucroy wound up vetoing the deal, so Cleveland pivoted and flipped two prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays for Brandon Guyer.

It was a frenzied end to weeks of trade conversations as the club jockeyed with a handful of others for the best record in the American League. A 14-game winning streak in late June had shifted the front office’s thinking from cautiously optimistic to fully invested. This was the beginning of a contention window and Cleveland was ready to load up on talent. In case they lost the bidding war for Miller, they had also negotiated with New York for Aroldis Chapman. There was no leaving the trade deadline without a substantial upgrade or two.
The addition of Andrew Miller at the trade deadline proved pivotal to Cleveland’s pennant-winning journey in 2016. (Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)

When is the right time for a front office to strike, to flex the muscles hiding beneath their team-issued quarter-zips and moisture-wicking khakis?

This sure seems like another opportunity that president of baseball ops Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff can’t waste.

Something is brewing at the corner of Carnegie Avenue and Ontario Street. The Guardians reached the All-Star break with the best record in the AL. They surpassed the 1 million mark in attendance quicker than they have in any season since 2008. They’ve rewarded the packed houses with a 30-11 home record.

The first half presented sky-high vibes and a refreshing twist on the customarily pitching-rich and offensively challenged Cleveland brand of baseball. Now comes the pressure.

The front office can help to ease some of that burden by addressing the roster deficiencies that stand to threaten a potentially memorable summer. The Guardians make a ton of contact and they hit tanks. They boast the league’s best bullpen. And, well, the rotation needs work. There are ways to repair what ails them, but it’ll require that same aggressiveness the front office wielded in 2016.

An aggressive approach… in this starting pitching economy?

Yes, even with inflation running rampant throughout front-office circles, with so few teams fully out of the postseason picture, with pitchers’ UCLs snapping so frequently and driving up demand, it is possible for the Guardians to address their weaknesses.

If their Plan A doesn’t materialize, the Guardians don’t need to be overly picky. A frontline starter would help, sure, but a mid-rotation innings eater plus another reliable reliever would also save their bullpen from pre-playoff burnout. A proven right-handed hitter would prevent a bunch of rookies from dictating whether the offense is sufficient. There are plenty of paths to roster improvement.

As the deadline draws closer and more teams hop to a side of the fence, the market will become clearer. The Rangers and Blue Jays and Rays and Tigers and Giants and Cubs and others will decide on a strategy. There will be more sellers to prevent the sad-sack clubs from holding out for a ransom for whomever they make available. There will be teams seeking to shed impending free agents from their payroll. There will be more desperation to get something done.

The Guardians have plenty of trade chips in the farm system, and their new draft class — widely considered a resounding success, and not just because they landed Travis Bazzana with the top pick — can help the front office stomach the pain of parting with some promising young players.

It’s up to Antonetti and Chernoff — and ownership, which, after a dormant winter and with a steady parade through the turnstiles, has no business hindering trade deadline operations — to ensure this isn’t the high point. No one’s raising a banner at Progressive Field that reads “Best AL Record at the All-Star Break: 2024.”

Part of the justification for last summer’s white flag sale was understanding the team had played listless baseball for four months and that there would be more prudent opportunities to make additions in the future. Well, here’s one, even if it arrived sooner than anticipated. The AL is there for the taking.

You know the adage about how in baseball, you just need to get into the playoffs and get hot at the right time? The best teams, the ones with the fewest deficiencies, are the ones with the best chances of getting hot at the right time.

Dating to 1901, when Charles W. Somers’ outfit was a charter member of the AL, only four times in franchise history has the club had a better start through 95 games.

In 1920, they started 63-32 and ultimately won the organization’s first World Series. A year later, seeking a title defense, they started 61-34 but stood a few games behind the Yankees at season’s end. In 1954, they started 66-29 en route to a club-record 111 wins and an AL pennant.

Four decades of misery ensued until 1995, when they steamrolled their opponents to a 65-30 start in a season that captivated the city and concluded with an AL pennant and a Monday afternoon parade through downtown Cleveland, despite a sour finish against the Braves in the World Series.

Thus far, implausibly, this team rivals those titans from Cleveland baseball lore. It could use a lift, though.

So when is the right time for a front office to strike? Anytime between now and 6 p.m. ET on July 30.

the non-trade for Lucroy was a big plus.
the trade for Miller was even more so.
One bit of bad luck this year is that some of the best pitching options are in the AL Central and will the WhiteSox or Tigers we willing to trade to strengthen division rivals.

100%. Doubtful.

Just not a lot of better than average pitchers available. Very few average pitchers. I do not remember another trade deadline where I am hard pressed to name a starter that is worth giving up multiple prospects. Even Flaherty was begging for a contract. Fedde has bounced around. Crochet has won 9 games in his entire career.

Starting to think that Quantrill would be the best option.