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Jhonkensy Noel, James Wood Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (June 24th)
Every Monday morning we’ll highlight several players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. These are not full scouting reports, but can often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out, or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last week, we broke out some new charts that allowed us to dive deep into a bevy of interesting hitters, headlined by Jace Jung. This week we’ll talk about:
An ascendant Guardians slugger who doesn’t fit the mold
The best prospect in baseball?
An interesting sidearming lefty
Some Double-A data!
Another look at a 6-foot-8 Tigers Pitcher
Drake! Baseball edition.
A player we dropped from the Top 100
A different Guardians prospect who fits the mold
An Astros prospect with almost twice as many walks as strikeouts
A 6-foot-6 Phillies lefty, with back-to-back 10-strikeout starts
am copying the link here, so perhaps you can review the stats in detial.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... june-24th/
But here's the text about Noel and "the other Guardian"
This is the second time Noel graces this list. Given his scintillating June numbers, he warrants a deep dive and the headlining spot.
Noel gets to his power thanks to a powerful 6-foot-3, 250-pound frame with a massive lower half that allows him to absolutely crush baseballs.
Noel is an extremely aggressive hitter, but he also makes a fair bit of contact. Let’s begin by looking at how he approaches four-seam fastballs. He saw 286 four-seamers through Saturday’s games.
Noel clearly has a swing geared to make contact low in the zone. He has zero swings and misses over the plate, bottom third and below. However, we can clearly see his aggression is all over the place without a clear plan of attack. He also appears to have a clear hole in his swing against four-seam fastballs up in the zone, which will likely be exploited when he gets the call to the majors.
Against breaking pitches, we see he’s both able to punish in-zone misses, as well as make contact against pitches just below the zone. A disciplined hitter will have bigger boxes in the zone than out of the zone…but Noel will just swing at everything.
So what makes Noel such an intriguing power bat, one that breaks the archetype of hitter that the Guardians supposedly covet? Let’s first take a look at Noel’s 2023 breakdown, so we can see where he has improved year over year.
Against breaking pitches, we see he’s both able to punish in-zone misses, as well as make contact against pitches just below the zone. A disciplined hitter will have bigger boxes in the zone than out of the zone…but Noel will just swing at everything.
So what makes Noel such an intriguing power bat, one that breaks the archetype of hitter that the Guardians supposedly covet? Let’s first take a look at Noel’s 2023 breakdown, so we can see where he has improved year over year.
We see a host of positive changes, so let’s go through each piece:
Chase rates are the same year to year, which is likely who Noel is as a hitter
Chase contact up significantly (about 6%) and up against all pitch types
Overall contact up slightly, likely still held down by the chase rates
Zone contact slightly improved, still below MLB average, even against Triple-A pitching
Zone swing% is up dramatically, around 7%, and is the key driver to his success this season
Launch angles are up, average exit velocities are up and top-end exit velos are up, leading to significantly higher quality of contact.
I think Noel could use some more time at Triple-A to work on fixing his swing. He looks like the type of hitter that will need a season or two of major league plate appearances to figure things out, and will either boom or bust once he gets there.