DeLauter will be a star. The swing thing is stupid, This guy has hit everywhere he has played. Amazing how the critics dont look at what he has produced but what we think his power numbers he should have. Did Zimmer ever produce ?

Baseball is a hard game.

Every prospect has succeeded at every level they have played or they wouldn't be a prospect.

30 teams... 40 man roster 1200 Major league baseball players. About half are pitchers so there's 600 or so hitters.

Millions of kids think they can be one of the 600.

The final test is the ability to hit Major League pitching.

How many hitters, successful at lower levels, flame out when they have to hit Major League pitching?

Beautiful swing..ugly swing .. more to it than that.

I personally think you know when you see it. I think Rocchio, Manzardo, DeLauter, Brito and Tena have it.

Did Zimmer ever produce ?

only among the real low-level opposition'

Rookie Level 368.520/632
Low A 304/401/464
High A 328/403/493
and then downhill
AA 243/354/442
AAA 240/345/381

Keith Law has Cleveland at #22 system

22. Cleveland Guardians

If I were just comparing systems’ top eight prospects, Cleveland would be in the upper half, at the very least, but I think they fall off very quickly after that, the result of some weaker draft classes that have focused a lot on undersized hitters and guys who are just young for their levels.

That said, I could see any of five guys leaping onto the top 100 next year, including Daniel Espino, who hasn’t pitched in almost two years but was the best pitching prospect in baseball in April 2023.

anyone see who made his top 8? I don't find the list.

Baseball America adds 10 more "prospects" for each team. When you get down to Numbers 31-40 you're talking about guys with not much chance to be major leaguers.

nevitably, there are players every year who barely miss the cut when we narrow down the list. These players are all worth monitoring for various reasons and it’s likely some will either reach the big leagues in 2024 or enjoy breakout seasons lower in the minors.

Here are next 10 players to know in the Guardians system beyond their Top 30.

31. Tim Herrin, LHP [POOR MAN'S SAM HENTGES]

Herrin bounced between Triple-A Columbus and Cleveland in 2023 and he could fit in the Guardians’ bullpen in 2024 as a lower-leverage lefty reliever. He’s better against lefties than righties, but needs to be a little better against righthanded hitters to carve out a more significant role.

32. C.J. Kayfus, 1B [VERY GOOD DEBUT albeit in 17 games 271/429/542 4 homers 5 steals]

The Guardians in 2023 drafted Kayfus 93rd overall after a solid career at Miami. He has an unusual profile as a smaller hit-over-power first baseman, but his feel for hitting gives him a solid foundation.

33. Alex Mooney, SS [COULD BE THE NEXT CARSON TUCKER, OR MAYBE NOT]

Mooney was No. 83 in the 2023 draft rankings but slid to the seventh round as a draft-eligible sophomore from Duke. The Guardians went well over slot to sign him, inking him to their third-highest bonus in the draft class. He’s a well-rounded player but lacks a true carrying tool.

34. Tanner Burns, RHP [UNDERPERFORMING AS A PRO]

Burns was the 36th overall pick in the 2020 draft and has been solid, if unspectacular, in the professional ranks. He’s spent the last two seasons at Double-A Akron and he went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft after Cleveland left him unprotected this fall. He lacks a plus pitch but he made a late-season move to the bullpen that could unlock some of his potential.

35. Will Dion, LHP [LITTLE LEFTY WITH A SLOW FASTBALL Y WITH CLASS A AND AA SUCCESS]

Listed at 5-foot-10, 180 pounds, Dion is undersized and has a below-average fastball but he’s been one of the most productive pitchers in the Guardians’ system in his first two full professional seasons. He spent most of 2023 at Double-A Akron and offers high-level pitchability. If he can find some more velocity or continue to prove himself at the upper levels, he could make a breakthrough.

36. Doug Nikhazy, LHP [HIGH DRAFT PICK WITH AWFUL COMMAND]

An All-American at Mississippi, Nikhazy reached Double-A Akron in 2022, his first full professional season. He spent all of 2023 there and while parts of his game stood out, his control has regressed in the minor leagues. His big curveball is a true weapon, but to take the next step he’ll have to improve his rate of 6.7 walks per nine innings as a professional.

37. Milan Tolentino, SS [RANKING DROPS ANNUALLY]

Drafted out of the California prep ranks in 2020, Tolentino in 2023 advanced to Double-A Akron. His high baseball IQ plays well defensively, and he has a contact-oriented approach at the plate.

38. Guy Lipscomb, OF [HE CAN RUN, WHICH IS BETTER THAN NOTHING]

Despite missing nearly two months due to a broken wrist, Lipscomb still swiped 48 bases in 75 games for Low-A Lynchburg in his first professional season. His speed, athleticism and control of the strike zone give him intriguing upside.

39. Jacob Zibin, RHP HE'S A GUY WHO HAS LOTS OF UPSIDE IF HE IS RECOVERED

A Canadian native, Zibin was one of the youngest players in the 2022 draft class. He slipped to the 10th round but signed for $1.2 million and the Guardians ended up with a player with exciting upside. He didn’t pitch in 2023 after having Tommy John surgery.

40. Kody Huff, C [DEFENDER WHO DOESN'T HIT]

The Guardians acquired Huff from the Rockies in November in exchange for Cal Quantrill. Huff is an athletic catcher and has a high-level baseball IQ.

It's likely that this is accessible only to BA subscribers, but in case it isn't

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ts-podcasI

a couple minutes of commericials but then it showed up

3 "unknown" pitchers on the Depth Camp list are Rule 5 Minor League Level picks, which means they were on AA rosters, drafted on behalf of Columbus and don't have to be retained in AAA or returned.

All 3 are firm proof that any team can make draft day mistakes:

John Doxaxis 25 year old LHP Tampa 2nd round pick 2019. The next year he was rated thier #23 prospect, just ahead of Pete Fairbanks who has become a bullpen regular for the Rays. Doxaxis last year in AA had a 5.47 ERA, and one inning in AAA allowing 3 runs.

Tyler Brown 25 year old RH is from Mansfield OH. 3rd round pick by another team that knows how to develop prospects: Houston, in 2020. In 2023 he had a 3.12 ERA in AA, 8.10 briefly in AAA

Connor Gillespie 26 year old RH 9th round pick of Baltimore in 2019. Last year n AA he was 7-4 3.89

Another more interesting guy on the list is Cooper Ingle, drafted by the G's in the 4th round last summer. He was placed at the highest level of any of the 2023 draftees, in Lake County, Hit 288 in 52 At Bats. A catcher who could compete with Kody Huff as Naylor Backup of the Future

Friday, February 16, 2024

New Rules - How Will They Impact Teams' Control of Minor League Players

Yesterday's announcement that the complex leagues in Florida and Arizona will now start playing in May and end before the 2024 draft was shocking to a lot of prospect geeks. People are scrambling to see what it all means to player development and player control. Let's unpack what I think it means, pending official word from MLB.

However, as we dive into this new rule, it is important to know that it is not the only recent rule change that impacts prospect development/control. Here are some important, recent changes, including the complex league schedule change, that impact a team's ability to control their prospects.

MiLB CBA -

Players 19 and older (essentially college-age players) reach minor league free agency 6 years from the date they are signed, assuming they turned 19 by June 5th of the year they were drafted/signed. This means these players only have 5 full seasons to be placed on a team's 40 man roster or they can become MiLB free agents. This is a drop of one year from the previous rule. Remember that college players also reach Rule 5 status one year earlier than HS draftees and most players signed from Latin America.

Players signed before their 19th birthday (generally HS and young international signees) fall under the previous rule, get 7 seasons, meaning they get their signing/draft year plus another 6 full seasons before they can become an MiLB free agent. This is the same rule that used to apply to all players.

Maximum Minor League Reserved Lists In 2024

An MLB team may only have a total of 165 players on their US minor league reserve lists. Down from 180 last year, this means that teams with a traditional minor league system (AAA, AA, A+, A and Complex League) will have, on average, an average of 33 players on each of these rosters. This will impact the depth in every organization as teams will likely have to release prospects who have not progressed as fast as other players and these multiyear project players (e.g., Tommy Ventimiglia of the Guardians) might not be signed any longer if, as with Ventimiglia, he might not truly be ready for affiliated baseball until his game is polished up significantly. These hard decisions will no doubt cause teams to lose talented players simply because they have no room for them under this 165 player umbrella.

As I understand it, signed draftees MUST be included in the 165 players at the conclusion of the draft signing period in a given year, even if the new rule described below on the change in the complex league seasons makes it impossible for these players to play in their draft year.

This list does not include players on Dominican Rosters unless those players are added to a US affiliate.

The 165 player limit does not include players on long-term injury/inactive lists but does include players on shorter term (7 day) injury lists. The limited roster size also could hurt here as teams may not have enough replacements to cover a large number of short term injuries, even when those injuries are spread across a lot of teams.
The list does include players on a team's 40-man roster but not on the MLB team's 26 man roster.

This total US minor league player limitation will also likely eliminate teams from have two entries in a complex league as has happened in the past as teams simply can't populate SIX US minor league affiliates if they only have 165 players to fill those rosters.

The list is fluid during the season. If your minor league system is full at 165 and you send a player to the minors, another player would likely have to be released. Under this rule, for example, teams that make deadline deals where they acquire prospects might be required to release players so they have spots for the acquired prospects.

Elimination of Short-Season A Teams

In the new CBA a whole level of the minor leagues, what is called the short-season A leagues, was eliminated. This was a level that college draftees generally played in during their draft year and many HS players played in during their first full season after their draft year. Without these leagues and in combination with the new rule of the complex league season, (see below) this will make it difficult for draftees (college of HS) to find places to play their first season in the minor leagues even those these players are required to be counted in the 165. Inclusion of draftees on the in-season 165 number may cause a number of in-season releases of players to accomodate these new draftees entering the 165 player reserve lists.

International Signing Period

Implemented in 2021 due to the pandemic, teams now can sign players if they are 16 years old or older on Jan. 15th.

This change removed the ability of a team from signing a 'futures' player. In the past teams would sign these players on or after Aug. 15th when the DSL essentially was about to end their season. MLB allowed teams to not start the service clock for those players until the next year, giving them a whole year of development before their service time clock started.

Now players sign on Jan 15th and are able to start their playing careers the same calendar year in the DSL. This allows the players to play more quickly but means they can become minor league free agents almost one year younger than in the previous CBA.

The Ivan Herrera Exemption

Until this year the MLB has treated 2020 as a full season (>90 days) of service time for minor leaguers toward their Rule 5 eligibility, minor league free agency AND their minor league options. Once placed on the 40-man roster, a player can be sent to the minors in 3 different seasons without passing through waivers. If they are sent to the minors in a 4th season, they have to clear waivers before they can be sent to the minors. MLB can award a team a 4th option with a player IF a team has used up all 3 minor league options with that player before that player has completed 5 full minor league seasons. A season in the DSL, ACL or FCL isn't considered a full season as it lasts for less than 90 days. Also, if the player suffers a major injury and isn't on an active roster for more than 90 days, that season doesn't count, in and of itself, as a full season, either. Recently, there was an example that I don't think has precedent. The Cardinals were given a 4th option year for catcher Ivan Herrera because one of his 5 full professional seasons was 2020 and MLB determined that, in this instance, since Herrera was in the minors in 2020, that season would not count as a full season. This example is huge because the Guardians (and all teams) have players like Jhonkensy Noel and other top Latin prospects who are in the identical situation as Herrera.

Change in the Playing Season For Complex League Teams

The Arizona and Florida complex leagues will start play in May and end by June 22nd, meaning that players drafted in July would have to play in A or A+ leagues as the complex leagues would already be finished by the time the draft was completed.

MLB has not ruled on whether the draft year for players will still count as their first year or service or whether players can sign a 'future' contract if they are drafted.

My Thoughts

Every one of the above rule changes, with the exception of the Ivan Herrera exemption, have the potential to limit the control that teams have with their minor league assets. There IS the possibility that the change in the playing season for complex leagues will not limit control (minor league free agency) but only if teams are given the ability to sign their draftees to future contracts, something that was, supposedly, taken away in the new CBA. If teams are not given this pathway, players may count against this 165 limit in their draft year even though they don't have a place to play real games.

When you are a small market team like the Guardians, amateur player acquisition and development are probably the most important ways to build a major league team. The more rules that are put in place that hamstring teams who lean heavily on player development, the more difficult it will be for those teams to compete at the ML level..

It appears to me that these recent rule changes affect a team's years of control and development of international amateur free agents and high school draft picks disproportionately and that is a problem as these two groups are historically the slowest to develop to their full potential in the minor leagues and teams may have to make decisions to release some good prospects from these groups because they simply will not have enough roster spots.

The trends seen in the rules above seem to dis-favor small market teams and this is a disturbing trend that I hope MLB finds ways, like the Herrera exemption, to reverse this trend and favor teams that simply can erase their player development mistakes by signing multiple expensive free agents. MLB needs to do something for the little guy. But will they?

Time will tell.

Posted by Dennis at 12:04 AM No comments:

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I stumbled on this web site by Justin Lada.

Next Year in Cleveland - Guardians Farm System Coverage

https://nextyearincleveland.substack.com/

The above link will take you to the "sign up for emails" page.

I signed up for the emails (you can upgrade to "pay" if you wish.

Here's an example of what you get by signing up for the emails:




Cleveland Guardians 2024 Prospect Scouting Report: #38 RHP Trenton Denholm

Denholm has solid control and an above average changeup, needing to sit in a more consistent velocity band, add strength, and sharpen his command and curveball

JUSTIN LADA

FEB 16











Trenton Denholm Bio

Age (2024 season): 24

Acquired: 2021 Draft (Round 14)

2023 Level: High-A

Height: 5’11

Weight: 180

Throws: Right

Trenton Denholm 2023 Stats

G/GS: 23

IP: 77

ERA/FIP: 3.16/3.18

K/BB: 67/28

K%/BB%: 21.2%/5.7%

WHIP: 1.14

Trenton Denholm 2024 Scouting Grades

Fastball: 45

Curveball: 45

Changeup: 55

Command: 40

Overall: 40

Risk: High

ETA: 2027

Build & Background

At 5’11, Denholm is a smaller statured pitcher. He has a compact frame, with moderate levers at best and he carries some sneaky strength in his lower half and legs. Overall strong build for his frame but thin for a pitcher. There’s some limited room to add strength in his upper half, but his frame and build are mostly set at this point. The Eldorado Hills, CA native has a very smooth operation on the mound. Cleveland has helped Denholm move to a chest high leg kick and has him coming through with a nearly over the top release. He keeps his leg kick and hands insync very well, with a moderate arm action. He uses a quick step back into his leg kick, which he puts into a drop and drive to create momentum and work downhill with his high arm slot. Despite some of those moving parts, especially in his leg kick, he repeats his delivery pretty well. Was drafted by the Red Sox out of high school but didn’t sign, betting on himself. Denholm probably would have been drafted in 2020 if not for the five round pandemic draft, and Cleveland grabbed him out of UC Irvine in he 14th round in 2021. He pitched for the Team USA collegiate squad. He’s been healthy since getting to pro ball, save for some shoulder soreness in 2022.

What Denholm Does Well

As noted above, Denholm has a pretty smooth operating delivery and he repeats it well. That helps him throw a good volume of strikes with his entire arsenal. His fastball has some ride on it at the top of the zone and it carries with his high arm slot. The changeup is Denholm’s best offering. It has plenty of fade and some run to it. He throws it with fastball arm speed, so he sells it well enough to get it to die under hitters bats low in the zone, and he has good velocity separation on it from his fastball. Denholm also has a solidly shaped, tight power curve. It doesn’t have the velocity of your typical “power” curve but it has a short hump and drop with promising shape that will flash as average or better.

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https://x.com/JL_Baseball/status/164920 ... 85569?s=20


https://x.com/JL_Baseball/status/167494 ... 20545?s=20


Where Denholm Needs to Improve

He’s not going to grow anymore at this point physically, but added strength is something Denholm could use to sustain his velocity more and address ome concerns about how his body would hold up as a starter long term. Cleveland was very careful about his workload in 2023, often using him as a piggyback starter and having him go three or four innings. So that does nothing to dissuade those concerns. In 2022, there were reports (and some video) suggesting he was able to get up to 96-97 at times. In 2023, he came in a lot at 89-94 for the most part. While his fastball does work well above the letters, he can’t afford to leave it in the zone, as it will get hammered. He also tends to finish high with the changeup sometimes, which could get him in trouble. Denholm’s curveball with flash average, sometimes better, but he’s inconsistent with being able to snap it at times and locate it. It’s probably his third best controlled pitch. A little more velocity would also help tighten it up. His chest high leg kick also puts him on the slower side of average-fringe average in terms of time to the plate (1.5-1.7), which will make him susceptible to the run game. Overall he has more control than command right now.

Key Stats

A key stat worth watching if Denholm can repeat at Double-A this year is his home run rate. For a pitcher that is somewhat of a control artist and has had inconsistent fastball velocity, Denholm wasn’t touched for a lot of homers in his 77 innings at High-A, and in the summer, Classic Park plays very hitter-friendly for left handed hitters. Double-A hitters will give him a good test to see if he can continue to keep the ball in the ballpark, though Canal Park tends to be pitcher friendly. But there are Eastern League ballparks that can be brutal for pitchers like Denholm.

Intangibles

Denholm’s Team USA performance helped him get drafted by Cleveland as well as strong performance on the Cape in college summers. Playing on those circuits also suggests a desire to compete and continue to work to get better outside of the college season. He is related to former MLB catcher, Rod Barajas so there is some family ties there and learned from him in high school.

Future

Right now, Denholm sort of looks like a 1.5-2 pitch pitcher. He needs more consistent velo on his fastball and needs to locate it better. His changeup is a legitimate outpitch. I could see it playing as a plus pitch for him if he were to find better fastball velo more consistently and avoid missing high with it at times. The version of Denholm that is more 92-95 has a chance to be a fringe-fill in back of the rotation arm, a la a Eli Morgan or Xzavion Curry type, who both have similar size and really only have two average or better pitches. But Denholm’s curveball has the shape to be average and could be more effective with better velocity and command as well. I see the potential for Denholm’s fastball and curve to both be average at worst, and his changeup a 60, and his command a 45 or 50. That’s enough to be a sixth starter type. If that doesn’t end up panning out, I think he’s most likely a two pitch reliever like Morgan, where his fastball can gain velo in the pen and his changeup can be an out pitch, which is ultimately where I see the most viable big league role for him given his size as well.

Role

40 - Swingman, middle relief, depth starter

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The Link works now

https://nextyearincleveland.substack.com/

Justin Lada started his countdown at #50. He's now on #38 (Trenton Denholm)

<

https://lockedonpodcasts.com/hosts/justin-lada/

I thought I recognized Justin Lada's. He was one of the sportswriters under Tony Lastoria for Indians baseball insider that does not exist anymore. I can't remember all of the contributors that made Indians baseball insider a very popular Indian web site. But from appearances, Justin's content is very similar.

From the above link:

Justin has built a background in writing about the franchise’s farm system since 2007. Since graduating from the University of Akron, Justin has written about the Cleveland franchise on a full-time and freelance basis for the News-Herald/Morning Journal, Guardians Baseball Insider, Next Year in Cleveland, scouting/writing minor league prospects for Prospects Live.




End of IBI on 247Sports

Indians Baseball Insider will cease to exist on 247Sports as of April 1, 2020. Please read for more details...

JUSTIN LADA

Feb 16th, 2020, 10:31 AM

This is an unfortunate notice to have to write, but the time has come to officially announce that CBS has elected not to renew contracts with any of their baseball sites, including Indians Baseball Insider.

As of April 1, Indians Baseball Insider will no longer exist on 247Sports. The site founder and publisher, Tony Lastoria, attempted to find a new host site to take us on, but nothing has come up at this time.

There may be a chance for IBI to exist in another space in a different form, but that isn't clear as of now. We're working through those details.

The rest of the IBI Top 50 Prospects will go on as scheduled along with some other Indians content planned through March 31, 2020.

Thank you to Tony Lastoria, for founding the site and mostly, thank you to the readers and subscribers who have supported IBI and all of our efforts through the years.

We hope to talk to you somewhere from another space soon.

<

Here's content from Baseball America's 22 Dominican SUmmer League prospects who can make some noise this year:

Welbyn Francisca, SS, Guardians

Francisca has already earned one of the better nicknames in the sport: Phosphorus. He came about that moniker by showing an excellent feel to hit that includes outstanding bat-to-ball skills and budding power that could grow as he adds strength. Francisca might move to second base in the long run, but he has the offensive gifts to profile at second base if that’s his final destination. He looks like the latest in Cleveland’s long line of intriguing middle infield prospects.