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by rusty2
Top 100 MLB prospects for 2024, ranked by Kiley McDaniel
65 FV Tier
1. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Hit: 50/60, Game Power: 40/60, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
Reminds me of: Gunnar Henderson with a notch better hit tool, but a notch worse power potential
Type: Lefty-hitting perennial All-Star shortstop who's good at everything
Holliday wasn't a huge name on the national scouting radar until the summer before his draft year (2022). That spring he was seen by the industry as on par with a few other high school shortstops projected in the middle-to-back of the first round. I had him at the top of that group (which included Cole Young and Mikey Romero, eventual first-rounders) but behind the established stars of the class -- Druw Jones (second overall pick, 100th on this list), Termarr Johnson (fourth overall pick, 34th on this list) and Elijah Green (fifth overall pick, just missed this list).
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When I did my first ranking of the 2022 season in late February, I was already hearing good early returns on a preseason look at Holliday and scooted him up to 12th overall. By my next ranking in April, I had flown to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to see Holliday (and also Jett Williams, ranked below) and was blown away. I moved Holliday up to third on my draft list -- equivalent to the top 50 of the minor league Top 100. By draft day, Holliday, Jones and Johnson were all in the same tier, close to a toss-up, ranging from 24th to 36th on the Top 100.
The main thing that changed for Holliday from that spring to when he was drafted is that he bulked up and increased his raw power -- and as a projectable lefty-hitting shortstop, those qualities alone put him in rare territory. He's never been an elite runner or defender (or even thrower), but he's well-coached -- his dad is former long-time big leaguer Matt and his uncle is Oklahoma State head coach Josh -- with a good internal clock. (And if a team has a plus defensive shortstop, you could easily slide Holliday to second or third base.)
As you might guess given his father's career, Holliday's calling card has always been a standout bat and good approach but even those highest on him were surprised how easily he shot through the minors in 2023. He hit .323/.442/.499 across all four full-season levels of the minors as a 19-year-old. Read that again. His hitting tools aren't otherworldly but he might end up plus at everything in the batter's box when all is said and done. Anyone will take that, even if the power takes a little while to actualize at the big league level.
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The highlight reel plays of ESPN's top MLB prospectsCheck out some of the top minor league highlights of Orioles prospect Jackson Holliday, Rays prospect Junior Caminero and Brewers prospect Jackson Chourio.
2. Jackson Chourio, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 19 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 50/60, Raw Power: 65/70, Speed: 70/70, Fielding: 50/55, Throwing: 45/45
Reminds me of: Luis Robert
Type: Potential 30-30 center fielder with raw tools that let you imagine 40-40 if it all comes together
Even if you aren't a big prospect fan, you might recognize Chourio's name from the eight-year, $82 million extension he signed in December despite playing only six games in Triple-A. He was a notable international signee in the 2021 class who got $1.9 million with the typical scouting report of a prospect in that bonus range: lively body, good bat and foot speed, but not a ton of polish. He pretty quickly showed there was more polish than expected, as his improving raw tools overpowered his competition. Chourio dominated the DSL in 2021 as a 17-year-old, hinting that there might be a stateside breakout in 2022. Then he tripled down on that concept: jumping straight to Low-A, then High-A, and finishing with a brief stint in Double-A as an 18-year-old.
When a decent prospect with OK tools puts up big numbers, I normally warn fans to temper their enthusiasm because "scouts aren't doing backflips over him." In 2022, scouts I spoke with about Chourio were doing backflips. His raw power and exit velos were 70-grade in addition to his speed -- and at age 18, the mythic power/speed combo can only call to mind a handful of names, like Bo Jackson, Eric Davis, maybe Ronald Acuna Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.; you get the idea.
The only issue, and the reason he isn't No. 1 on this list, is that Chourio still swings more than average and chases pitches out of the strike zone to an even larger degree. It's a 40-grade ability to pick pitches, which isn't a nightmare of a blinking red alarm -- more of a yellow light. This kind of thing can go one of a few ways for a talented young player: a couple of seasons of trouble, eating into his ability to reach his ultimate upside; a month or two of tough adjustments; or little trouble at all, if a prospect is so talented on multiple fronts that he makes the adjustment as he's forced to do it. A few seasons ago, the second and third prospects on the Top 100 both had this issue -- Julio Rodriguez figured it out almost immediately; Bobby Witt Jr. had a decent rookie season and then a much better sophomore campaign. Acuna Jr. fell more into the Rodriguez area; Luis Robert fell more into the Witt group. Starling Marte made a solid career being this sort of player.
You get the idea. When you're ranked this high and are this talented and this young, you usually figure it out to some degree, though there's always a cautionary tale like Lewis Brinson, a top-20 prospect who never figured it out. I'm betting Chourio does, and probably on the quicker side of this cohort.
60 FV tier
3. Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hit: 35/45, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 80/80, Speed: 50/45, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 70/70
Reminds me of: The power and aggression of Giancarlo Stanton in the batter's box, but while playing third base
Type: An aggressively spiced gumbo of premium bat speed and raw power. It can verge on too much at times, but when it's right: chef's kiss.
Caminero was acquired from Cleveland in a trade for Tobias Meyers in 2021 during a flurry of 40-man moves for both clubs. This is the shining example of why the Rays were one of the first teams to comprehensively scout the DSL, where Caminero had played 43 games: Other teams weren't doing it and some GMs didn't even know what was on their own teams.
Caminero snuck on last year's Top 100 at No. 97 because after the trade, he played such a strong 36 games in Rookie Ball that he was promoted -- in 26 games at Low-A, as he was turning 19 years old, he was arguably even better. Back then, I described the group I put Caminero in as "maybe they haven't totally earned it on paper yet, but lots of smart people are buying in, so I am too."
Caminero had shown above-average bat-to-ball ability and easily plus raw power with real results -- but nobody really saw his 2023 coming. He started at High-A and finished it in the big leagues as he was turning 20, clubbing 32 homers over three levels while growing into legit 80-grade power. As referenced in the "type" above, the issue with Caminero, like Chourio, is he still swings and chases too much, to almost an identical degree as Chourio, so the second and third players on this list feel very similar to the Top 100 two years ago when No. 2 and No. 3 were J-Rod and Witt Jr.: two players from the 2022 list who are notably very good at baseball now.
Caminero leans into his power in his offensive approach and can look a bit out of control at times, though I suspect it isn't as often as it appears to be. Since Chourio has the speed and defensive edge along with the extension, I'll take that margin for error and vote of confidence as the tiebreaker between the two. Caminero, though a very different player, has similar issues at the plate and a comparable upside.
4. Wyatt Langford, LF, Texas Rangers
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hit: 45/60, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 65/70, Speed: 65/60, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 50/50
Reminds me of: At the plate, shades of Austin Riley, Pete Alonso, or Paul Goldschmidt -- but with the build and speed of Christian McCaffrey
Type: A T. rex in cleats
Langford has taken the most winding road of any of the prospects in the top tier of this list. He was an unknown high school recruit, then got just four at-bats his freshman year at Florida.
MLB Prospect Rankings: Terms To Know
For the top tier of prospects, I present their tools as 45/60 meaning presently it's a 45 and projects to a 60 at maturity. 50 is major league average (which is a really good present tool for a minor leaguer), 55 is above average, 45 is below average, 60 is called plus (one standard deviation above average), 70 is plus-plus (two standard deviations), and 80 (three) is the top of the 20-80 scale, where just a handful of players in the big leagues reside.
These tools also scale to commonly used numbers. For game power, 50 equates to 15-18 homers per year, 55 is 19-22, 60 is about 25, 65 is about 30, etc. while run grades equate to specific times on a stopwatch, a 50 hit tool is about a .260 batting average, average fastball velocity is 92-93 depending on your role and handedness, and so on.
Other tools like throwing for position players or off-speed pitches are more based on visual evaluations, but there are some objective figures to round observations up or down.
This 20-80 scale also applies to the FV (future value) used to sum up a player's overall value. A 50 PV (present value) is a 2.0 to 2.5 WAR player. FV of a prospect who is big league ready maps to this pretty well: the top tier (65 FV this year) of prospects are projected to have multiple peak seasons of 4-to-5 WAR while the MVP winner is usually around 7-8 WAR.
The further down in the minors you go, it becomes a tiered system of ranking prospects based on their trade value relative to top-tier prospects.
To give further context, I've also included some categories along with tool grades. First, "type," which categorizes a player for comparison among other players. I tend to round up on certain types (plus tools, plus makeup, middling stats) and round down on others (now velocity, teenaged right-handers).
The second is "reminds me of." This isn't a true comparison, because most players don't have a one-for-one perfect analog. There's also a lot of uncertainty with prospects, so it's by default looking at the rosier potential outcomes compared to some current MLB players. Its intent is to explain a player's ranking in a handful of simple words by saying they remind me of a current All-Star and have that as their high-risk upside, but you can also see why a lower-risk player might rank higher.
That would often lead to a transfer to a mid-major school and an uphill climb to even play pro baseball. Instead, Langford broke out with a massive sophomore season (.356/.447/.719 with 26 homers in the best conference in the country), and then proved it was no fluke in 2023 (.373/.498/.784, 21 homers). Langford went blow-for-blow with LSU's duo of Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes in draft status at the top of a loaded 2023 class and led Florida to a deep College World Series run that year.
Securely in the consensus five best talents on every team's board, Langford went fourth overall to the Rangers, landing the third-highest bonus ($8 million) behind Skenes and Crews who went first and second overall, respectively. Langford was the top prospect on my board going into the 2023 draft and has held that position because of what he did next.
As a 21-year-old with no pro experience, Langford played 44 minor league games, rising from Rookie ball all the way up to Triple-A, and went bananas, hitting .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases.
Let's take a beat there. Langford played the longest season of his life -- one that ended in heartbreak in Omaha -- took a few weeks off, was drafted, waited a few weeks for his deal to close, signed for $8 million, then went out and blitzed through the whole minor leagues by basically putting up the same numbers he did in college. The advanced numbers show that Langford racked up a barrel rate of 23% (Shohei Ohtani led MLB at 19.6%) and an in-zone whiff rate of 12.8% (Ohtani's was 18.6%) during his first pro season.
At the plate, Langford creates easy plus-plus power despite shorter limbs in a way that reminds me a bit of Alex Bregman -- but also of Mark McGwire. When Langford first stood out to me early in his sophomore season, I noted his setup and swing are incredibly simple, low maintenance and very similar to former Gator Pete Alonso. Langford's 44-game run from the draft to Triple-A -- which led to rumblings he would be called up to make his big league debut in the World Series after Adolis Garcia was hurt -- reminded me of the 2018 run of Juan Soto from A-ball to the big leagues in 39 games; Langford just ran out of time.
He has some adjustments to make to get his speed to play in the field, where his instincts run hot and cold. Florida always had better defensive options in center so he hasn't played there much. I assume he'll settle in left field long term and be around average defensively, but the raw tools are there to be a solid defender in center field or above average in left. Scouts speculated that Langford's lack of big stolen base numbers in college were due to coach's preference rather than baserunning ability, and the start of his pro career suggests his stolen base totals might end up matching his run grade.
Given his shorter arms, Langford is really good at pulling stuff on the inner half but will need to get a little better against softer stuff down and/or away. The real variable to pin these improvements on is whether Langford is able to make adjustments as needed and beat expectations, and that seems like a pretty easy yes from what we've seen.
5. Dylan Crews, CF, Washington Nationals
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hit: 40/55, Game Power: 50/60, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 55/55, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
Reminds me of: Xander Bogaerts, basically, but in center field
Type: Above average at everything, but might not be truly elite at any one thing
While Langford had a slow burn to uber-prospect status, Crews was a known quantity to scouts as a high school sophomore in the Orlando area. He was playing with the older high school prospects in summer events and was basically projected to be a first-round pick as soon as scouts saw him play. From the 2019 summer into his COVID-shortened 2020 senior spring, the combination of getting a little too stiff and muscular combined with some swing-and-miss questions (think Tyler O'Neill) led to late first-round projections -- and Crews didn't have the full spring to right the ship to get back into the top 10. Projections for that range weren't enough to meet his bonus expectations, so he took his name out of the draft to enroll at LSU.
Those concerns evaporated quickly when he started playing in Baton Rouge, where he was looking like a top-five overall pick almost immediately. I worried a bit about his complicated setup in his sophomore year, but he came out in his junior year with a simpler one. In 196 games over three seasons for LSU, Crews hit .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers and more walks than strikeouts, punctuating his collegiate career with a national championship in 2023 and going second overall weeks after.
After signing, Crews crushed Low-A then went to Double-A and was just OK for 20 games, but the underlying stats were still solid. The only real concern with Crews is if he can take that last step to hit his potential as a plus hitter with plus pitch selection who gets to all of his plus raw power in games. Some of the advanced data in college suggested that either contact or in-game power would maybe play a tick below the potential in pro ball, so it'll be interesting to see how Crews' hit vs. power balance plays in 2023 in the upper minors.
6. Evan Carter, CF, Texas Rangers
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/50, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 60/60, Fielding: 45/50, Throwing: 45/45
Reminds me of: Brandon Nimmo
Type: Lanky center fielder with sneaky power
You're probably already familiar with Carter due to his wildly successful big league debut (1.3 WAR in 23 games) and scorching-hot postseason run (.300/.417/.500 in 17 playoff games) en route to the Rangers' World Series title. Despite being drafted 50th overall out of high school, Carter was the highest-taken unknown prospect in recent memory just three years before his meteoric rise with the Rangers.
Carter was in the 2020 pandemic-affected draft, which was also my first live draft broadcast. We were warned that the Rangers were taking someone who wasn't in my top 200 but didn't get the name until a minute or two early. I texted a few friends, dejected that the unknown player was from Tennessee, not that far from my Atlanta home, making him the kind of player I should have known about. With another couple of weeks of spring baseball, those friends said, Carter would've been the popup name that I went to track down in April -- there just wasn't a chance for that to happen that year.
Suffice to say, expectations were low for Carter in pro ball given his short track record -- a handful of games in the spring plus a couple of lower-profile summer events. Carter laughed at that, showing near top-of-the-scale control of the strike zone immediately in addition to the obvious center-field fit and contact approach. Scouts wondered about his power upside, but he hit 18 homers last season (roughly what you can expect going forward), with six of them coming in the big leagues (and one in the playoffs). He might not reach an obvious superstar, six-plus WAR ceiling unless he finds a road to 25-30 homers, but Carter has a very good chance of posting multiple three to four WAR seasons and being a perennial All-Star.
7. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Velocity: 96-100, Fastball: 55/65, Slider: 65/70, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/55
Reminds me of: A bigger version of Gerrit Cole or Zack Wheeler
Type: 6-foot-6 potential ace with rare combination of power and command
Skenes was a lightly recruited prospect in high school, then hit national scouting radars by standing out for the USA baseball collegiate national team the summer after his freshman season at Air Force. At that point, he was running his fastball into the mid-90s in short stints, mixing in a 55-grade slider and also providing plus power in batting practice. While it said catcher next to his name on the roster and he dabbled in playing behind the plate at Air Force, he didn't seem to be there for that.
Skenes looked pretty similar the next summer for Team USA, which was the next time most scouts saw him (as a non-draft-eligible player at Air Force, he wasn't one of their top targets in the spring). He hit the portal later that summer, transferred to LSU and showed up in the fall of 2022 looking like a different guy. The following spring Skenes became a phenomenon on par with or exceeding recent college aces like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, David Price, Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg in the combination of dominance, fame and draft status. His 2023 numbers at LSU were otherworldly (19 starts, 122⅔ IP, 72 hits, 20 walks, 209 strikeouts), he won a national championship, and then he was selected No. 1 overall by the Pirates.
Top 100 prospects by team
Which franchises have the most players on our list?
7: Orioles
6: Mets, Padres, Reds, Tigers, Yankees
5: Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers
4: Guardians, Pirates, Giants, Rays
3: D-backs, Mariners, Nationals, Rangers, Red Sox, Twins, White Sox
2: Cardinals, Phillies, Rockies
1: Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins
0: Angels, Royals
His fastball reached triple digits many times in every start, his slider was arguably the best pitch in the entire draft, and even his lesser-used slower breaking ball (I call it a curveball) and changeup might become plus pitches in time. The unique part is that Skenes isn't just a huge guy with plus-plus raw power (some in the know have said Skenes has more raw power than Crews) and plus-plus raw stuff, he also can repeat his delivery and execute pitches like a potential big league ace. If it all clicks, he might be one of the eight to 12 aces in the big leagues as soon as the middle of this season.
The only two weaknesses I can find are that Skenes' fastball plays a tick below its fireball emoji velocity due to its combination of plane and movement, and that his position is pitcher. There are ways to improve the fastball's playability but it's still a plus pitch that he commands well, so he doesn't need to tinker -- and I wouldn't want to mess up something that's working. On that other point, the risk of injury is always there, a total bummer, so I have to hedge a bit in comparison to similar prospects. That's why I had Langford and Crews just ahead of him on draft day and still do.
That said, pitchers who are this renowned as draft prospects are almost in can't-miss territory. The only ones on his level or better from the past 20 drafts are Strasburg, Cole and Price, in that order. I think Skenes is either third or fourth of that group, and at the top of the next tier, which has a roughly 40% chance of busting, There are also some aces within that 60% success rate though: Kevin Gausman and Justin Verlander, with Carlos Rodon showing flashes and Jackson Jobe just behind him on this list. The fact that I have to contort that hard to poke holes in Skenes is why he's the top pitching prospect in baseball, a title that's led to more bad than good outcomes of late (check the Eury Perez blurb). At least Perez, last year's example, had a solid big league debut -- and previous cautionary tales (Jesus Luzardo, Grayson Rodriguez) also turned the corner in 2023, so maybe the luck of that title is turning.
8. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/60, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 45/45, Fielding: 40/45, Throwing: 55/55
Reminds me of: Gunnar Henderson
Type: Plus on-base and power from the left side, probably playing third base
When the White Sox took then-high school senior Montgomery with the No. 22 overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft, he was not even under consideration by many progressive-minded teams because he was already 19 years old on draft day. Yes, history says that these players are overvalued to a surprising degree, but that doesn't mean that they're all individually overvalued -- yet some teams simply wouldn't draft a 19-year-old high school player.
I won't bore you with the details of my theory, but I argued this concern didn't apply to Montgomery and ranked him 13th in the draft class. Since then, he has crushed all expectations and now looks like a potential perennial All-Star, who could debut as soon as the second half of 2024.
Montgomery has never been the quickest lateral mover defensively so despite being a fringe-average runner, speed isn't a big part of his game. He is sure-handed with an above-average arm, though, so third base is a more natural long-term fit -- he's about a notch worse defensively than Henderson, the comp I made above.
9. Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres
Age: 17 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Hit: 35/55, Game Power: 35/60, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/40, Fielding: 45/55, Throwing: 60/60
Reminds me of: J.T. Realmuto?
Type: An unbelievably gifted teenager who is seemingly good at everything on a baseball field
I'll cut to the chase. This scouting report is going to read like a long list of superlatives with the only negatives being the generic risks of Salas' player demographic. He's already that good after signing as a 16-year-old just 12 months ago.
Salas was on the scouting radar about as early on as a prospect can be, basically right after he aged out of Little League. Almost all top international prospects agree to deals well ahead of officially signing, but with the risks around agreeing to a verbal deal with a 14-year-old along with the recruiting and relationship-building processes, often it becomes clear along the way which team the player will land with and a deal is struck early for something like half of that team's $5-6 million international bonus pool. Salas was the subject of an early bidding war which is why the Padres gave him $5.6 million to close the deal. He signed last January 15, the first day he was able to sign, and since he was young for the signing class, he was still 16 years old.
Sometimes the hype can get out of control for elite international signees -- like it did with Jasson Dominguez, who had so much buzz that his now reaching the big leagues at age 20 and being in the top half of the Top 100 for his entire pro career is still below some fans' expectations. Salas entered pro ball with comparable expectations ... and smashed them in his first season. He caught in a big league spring training game and continued to wow the Padres staff in extended spring training, so he skipped the DSL and domestic complex league completely and started in Low-A, where he hit 22% above league average as (I'm screaming this part) A 16-YEAR-OLD CATCHER.
On top of that, he hits left-handed, is bilingual and is already a standout defender and thrower with above-average athleticism. Most teams would have left Salas at Low-A the rest of the season, maybe even shut him down early to limit his workload, but the Padres are one of the most aggressive franchises when it comes to prospect promotions. After turning 17 while still in Low-A, Salas was promoted to High-A for nine games and then again to Double-A for nine more games. The Padres clearly think Salas has the goods from top to bottom.
Here's what I see: He has above-average tools across the board, along with feel and playability that is already reflecting in his surface and underlying numbers. Defensively he has an incredibly rare feel for the nuances of catching at this stage, and, most importantly, his team clearly thinks he has the makeup and focus to handle the hype and challenge of these assignments at such a young age.
We are truly in uncharted territory in terms of talent and advanced skill set, but we're also talking about a young catching prospect -- the second-most variable and risky subset of prospect, behind hard-throwing young pitchers. There are so many unforeseen things that can go wrong with young catchers, but it seems silly to bet against Salas handling anything that's within his control. If he does something close to what he did in 2023 again during the 2024 season, he'll be the top prospect in baseball.
10. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Velocity: 95-98, Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 60/70, Cutter: 55/60, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50
Reminds me of: Spencer Strider, with better offspeed stuff (if you can believe that)
Type: A 6-foot-2 righty with four plus pitches and starter command
Jobe was a no-name to scouts but popped on the summer showcase circuit in 2020, breaking off 3000 rpm breaking balls with ease and getting his fastball into the mid-90s while also being a top-five-rounds prospect as an infielder. His dad, Brandt, was a PGA golfer and Jackson has the body control to command four different pitches with big velocity, big spin and plus shape. He was flashing four plus pitches down the stretch before going No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft, earlier than almost anyone expected for a prep righty (the riskiest player demographic in the draft). So far, the Tigers' since-fired regime appears to be right about this pick despite a rocky start to Jobe's pro career.
Jobe's stuff wasn't as crisp during his 2022 pro debut, as he had trouble with locating pitches that made his stuff just generally hittable. There was positive preseason buzz around him entering 2023 though and he was still a 50 FV prospect, just missing my Top 100. It seemed likely he had made some offseason progress until lumbar spine inflammation sidelined him until June. But then Jobe came back suddenly looking exactly like the prospect the Tigers thought they were getting as he posted 79⅔ innings with 103 strikeouts and 11 walks across four minor league levels and the Arizona Fall League.
Jobe should spend 2024 in the upper minors and seems on track to reach the majors late in 2024 or at the start of the 2025 season. His compact frame, bananas raw stuff and starter command remind me of Spencer Strider -- with a tick less fastball quality, but better and more varied offspeed stuff. Jobe is the rare pitching prospect who has a real chance to become an ace.
11. James Wood, RF, Washington Nationals
Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 45/65, Raw Power: 65/70, Speed: 60/50, Fielding: 50/55, Throwing: 50/50
Reminds me of: A combination of Elly De La Cruz, Cody Bellinger, Kyle Tucker and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Type: A 6-foot-6 plus runner with 30-plus homer upside
Wood fits right into a recent trend of super-tall sluggers along with Aaron Judge, Oneil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Jones and Bryce Eldridge. Wood posts plus run times and is surprisingly decent in center field, but because he'll likely lose a step and Crews is a bit better in center, Wood will slide over to right field where his enormous raw power will easily profile.
Wood's long limbs immediately make any scout wonder how he'll fare against high-level professional pitching. He had his fair share of strikeouts (mixed in with homers) on the summer showcase circuit, then had a confounding 2021 spring where he was borderline passive and opposite-field oriented for IMG Academy while facing a lot of Division I-caliber arms. That caused enough teams to hesitate for him to last until late into the second round (for an overslot $2.6 million bonus) on draft day, allowing the Padres to put together one of the best 1-2 picks in draft history with Wood going after first-round pick Jackson Merrill (who follows on this list).
Both were on the short list of players the Nationals asked about as return for Juan Soto in 2022, which also happened to be Wood's breakout season. Prospect lists largely hadn't been updated at that point and well-known names like C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell III and MacKenzie Gore seemed like the headliners -- but sources were telling me that a year after going 64th overall, Wood was the prize and I should rank him accordingly.
Wood's combination of power and patience is among the best in the minors, though he could still juice his homer totals by adding more loft to his swing. There's always going to be swing and miss to his game, which is why he's outside of the top tier of this list -- but if he can give real baserunning and defensive value with a solid OBP and 30-plus homers, he'll be a star.
12. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Hit: 45/60, Game Power: 40/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
Reminds me of: Stephen Drew or maybe a taller/slower Ozzie Albies?
Type: Elite bat-to-ball ability, above-average power and a shot to stick at shortstop, but he needs to clean up his approach a bit
Merrill was an extremely late-rising prospect in the 2021 draft class. I didn't know his name until March and a number of national scouts were asking me what I knew about him to find out if they were late on him. Despite having mid-first-round tools, teams were hesitant to place Merrill that high on their draft boards because he was a Maryland prep position player who wasn't facing even Division I-level arms along and had no summer performance against top competition. The Padres got him for a below-slot signing bonus at No. 27 overall then spent the savings on James Wood (one spot above on this list).
The biggest concern scouts had about Merrill was how his bat-to-ball ability would play against pro pitching and he has been at least plus, maybe plus-plus, in that area while showing that almost all of his above-average raw power can play in games. He's a solid runner and fielder with enough arm for any position, but his range is just OK and his hands are fine. He's more like a starter at shortstop if you don't have anyone better in your system than a slam-dunk to stay there, but he could easily slide over to second or third base if you do.
Merrill has a milder but similar case of the "swings and chases too much" as Caminero and Chourio above him on this list, though being more of a hit-first guy makes the risk here a bit lower. If he can clean those tendencies up in 2024, the Padres are the perfect team to give him a shot in the big leagues over the summer, and he could ultimately fill any position except catcher and center field.
13. Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hit: 30/40, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 55/55, Fielding: 55/65, Throwing: 70/70
Reminds me of: A mix of Dansby Swanson and Jeremy Pena
Type: Lower-average hitter with a solid approach, 30-homer upside and plus defense at shortstop
Williams was a notable 2021 draft prospect out of Southern California as a late-first-round hit-over-power shortstop with a strong glove (think Dansby Swanson) and also as a second-round prospect on the mound with a mid-90s fastball, but he didn't want to pitch in pro ball. The Rays took him No. 28 overall and the buzz the fall after he signed was immediately indicative of where things were headed: he was bigger with more power and looked like a steal.
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I took high-speed video of Williams this season and cut it together with high school swings so you can see the differences. He's now a power-over-hit type to where his in-zone contact rate is his biggest weakness, but on the upside he's still a plus defender at short and now has 30-homer upside. His power has developed to the point that he is shockingly close to James Wood in terms of in-game exit velos while Williams' ability to hit the ball hard at ideal launch angles is notably better. This uphill path has a trade-off with contact rate, but the margin for error is in Williams' above-average speed that plays on the basepaths (48 stolen bases over the last two seasons) and as an easily plus defender with a plus-plus arm.
Even in a bad outcome where Williams is a .230 hitter with strikeout rates over 30%, he'll still hit 20 homers, steal 20 bases and be in the running for a Gold Glove, something like the 3.4 WAR-producing Willy Adames was in 2023, or when Adames posted 4.6 WAR in 2022. Sometimes it's instructive to focus on what a player can do rather than what he can't and I think this is one of those cases.
14. Walker Jenkins, RF, Minnesota Twins
Age: 18 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Hit: 30/60, Game Power: 30/60, Raw Power: 65/70, Speed: 55/50, Fielding: 45/55, Throwing: 55/55
Reminds me of: Kyle Tucker
Type: Potentially plus at everything in the batter's box with a great swing and some defensive value
Jenkins and Bryce Eldridge (No. 96 on this list) were underclassmen at a showcase (between their sophomore and junior years in high school) and were the two best hitters on the team, over the older Ryan Clifford (No. 80). I had known Jenkins' name for years as one of the earliest players to stand out in his class and at this event in 2021, he reminded me of J.D. Drew, a tooled-up center fielder with above-average hit and power tools.
By the next summer, he looked more like a corner outfielder after losing a step, but he also had a tick more power. In his draft spring, Jenkins' power exploded to 70-grade and he was still showing solid-average speed with a similar physique to MLB outfielder Hunter Renfroe while putting on batting practice displays that had scouts mentioning the name Bryce Harper in hushed tones. Jenkins went No. 5 to the Twins as one of two high school players in the consensus top-five prospects in last summer's historic top of the draft.
People I talked to who had spent time with Jenkins ahead of the draft have said that he might have the best makeup of any player they've been around, and that makes me inclined to take the over on most of his projections -- especially because I was already inclined to do that just from watching him on the field. I'll leave you with this swing that I captured last spring.
15. Max Clark, CF, Detroit Tigers
Age: 19 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Hit: 30/60, Game Power: 25/50, Raw Power: 45/50, Speed: 70/70, Fielding: 50/55, Throwing: 60/60
Reminds me of: Corbin Carroll
Type: Electric 6-foot-1 center fielder with plus-plus foot speed and bat speed
Clark also played at the same showcase that I mention seeing Walker Jenkins stand out and the Indiana prep star was also one of the best prospects as an underclassman in an event that included Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson. Clark has been right there with Jenkins from the start, years ago when scouts first started hearing about the players to watch in their draft class. He had a great showcase summer and high school spring leading up to going third overall to the Tigers.
Clark gives you more margin for error than Jenkins because he's a no-doubt above-average center fielder with more baserunning value. Scouts also don't have to worry as much if his in-game power will show up because he is a hit-first player who projects for 15-20 homers down the road. Clark could move very quickly through the minors and his blurb might read like Jackson Holliday's does right now if things click.
16. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Velocity: 95-98 mph, Fastball: 60/70, Slider: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/55
Reminds me of: Zack Wheeler
Type: A 6-foot-7 power righty with easily plus stuff but more command than you'd expect
Painter has a perfect pitcher's name, but he's more of an overpowering presence than a control artist. As an underclassman in South Florida, he stood out because he had starter traits and could reach the low-90s with his fastball. His stuff was above-average across the board during his showcase summer then got a tick better (and flashed plus) in the spring.
The Phillies, notoriously not scared of raw prep pitching prospects, took him 13th overall in 2021. Somehow, Painter's stuff spiked again in 2022, with his fastball sitting in the upper-90s and hitting 100 mph in almost every outing. He blitzed to Double-A soon after turning 19 years old and was rumored to be the No. 1 target of Mike Rizzo in the Juan Soto trade that summer, but the Nats couldn't figure out how to rope the Phillies into the deal.
There was buzz circulating during spring training that Painter would skip Triple-A and break camp with the Phillies in 2023, but an elbow issue shut him down before the season started. Philly and Painter opted for a PRP injection to try to mend a partial UCL tear, but that didn't work and he had Tommy John surgery in July of 2023. That means he'll likely return to the mound this summer or fall, after missing basically two entire seasons.
He has rare ability, with a true ace upside, was on the fastrack before his elbow issue and we've seen literal aces like Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg and Jose Fernandez bounce right back from this surgery. Expectations are that Painter might indeed do that as well, but there are still a number of ifs that we should have some answers to by the end of the 2024 season.
17. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hit: 40/50, Game Power: 50/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 60/60, Fielding: 50/55, Throwing: 60/60
Reminds me of: Right-handed J.P. Crawford, with maybe a whiff of Willy Adames thrown in
Type: Above-average offense and defense from a shortstop
Like Jenkins and Clark have been tied together for years at the top of their draft class, both Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer (No. 29) have been linked together for some time. I narrowly made Lawlar the top prospect in my final 2021 pre-draft rankings but then surprisingly, Mayer went No. 4 overall with Lawlar being taken two spots later, mostly due to bonus demands and bonus pool strategy. They've been flipping spots on prospect lists since then.
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Lawlar is back on top and still has the tools that made me give him the edge originally: plus speed, plus raw power, a plus arm, and above-average defensive ability at shortstop. He briefly made his big league debut in 2023 after a solid campaign at Double-A and Triple-A (.278/.378/.496, 20 homers, 36 stolen bases in 490 PA) but had trouble getting MLB at-bats, didn't perform well when he did and will again have trouble getting playing time early in 2024. Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez are entrenched at the three infield spots Lawlar could fit, with the out-of-options Emmanuel Rivera also fighting for at-bats in a reserve role.
There is some concern in the industry that Lawlar's hit tool will play below pre-draft projections and his output in upper minors because big league pitchers could be good enough to take advantage of his bat-control limitations. He'd still be a clear everyday player but maybe a merely solid one if these concerns prove to be correct; I've split the difference here.
55 FV Tier
18. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Gold Glove level defender might also hit 20+ homers
PCA was identified early in his high school career, committing to Vanderbilt early in the process. He's always been a polished hitter, defender, and baserunner but slowly lost steam with scouts as they fell in love with more tooled-up prospects in the 2020 prep class. PCA wasn't affected much by the shortened spring given his long history, going 19th overall to the Mets. He missed all but six games of his debut 2021 season due to shoulder surgery and was traded for a rental Javier Baez, joining Jarred Kelenic as inadvisable Mets prospect trade decisions of that era.
The hope at draft time is that PCA would unlock more offensive upside from the average-to-a-bit-below projections and that started to happen in 2022 as a swing adjustment unlocked some power, hitting 16 homers in his first full pro season. He followed that with 20 homers and a big league debut in 2023, so now it looks like he'll land in the power-over-hit defensive standout genre of center fielder, ideally the kind who can post 5-win seasons like its patron saint, Mike Cameron.
19. Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Near MLB-ready 6-foot-5 third baseman with 30-homer upside
Mayo is one of many 2020 draft high school players who were judged almost entirely based on their summer performance, since they barely had a draft spring on the field. As a tall third baseman with questions about contact, his swing mechanics, and whether he could stay at third base, many thought Mayo and fellow similar prospect from South Florida Yohandy Morales would head to school. Morales went to Miami and was selected 40th overall last summer while Mayo signed in the fourth round for $1.75 million.
It quickly became clear when Mayo turned pro that his hit tool was real once he stuck to a swing and he improved enough defensively to project to stick at third base long term. Mayo hit 29 home runs last year between Double-A and Triple-A and projects to be in that 25-30 homer area at his peak, with plenty of walks to generate above-average on-base percentages.
20. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Rocket-armed shortstop with solid-average offensive potential
Winn is one of the more tooled-up prospects on this list with a true 80-grade arm, 60-grade speed, average-to-above hit, power and field tools and, in case you need him, two 70-grade pitches on the mound in his heater and breaker. He has added polish to his game quickly, getting to the upper minors at age 20 when many thought he'd be more of a slow burn prospect after being taken 54th overall in the 2020 draft. Winn is tracking like the Opening Day shortstop for St. Louis with a distinct Rookie of the Year chance. Look for .280 with 15-18 homers, value on the bases, and above-average defense at shortstop; a match for peak Rafael Furcal down to the gaudy arm strength.
21. Jasson Dominguez, CF, New York Yankees
Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
Age: 20 | Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Type: Squatty outfielder with plus power and speed
Dominguez is one of the most celebrated international signings of all time and has largely lived up to the hype because of a bombastic plus power/speed/arm strength combination. Dominguez made his big league debut at age 20 last season but had to get Tommy John surgery, which will keep him sidelined until the summer. He's good enough defensively to play center field now -- something the Yankees need with Alex Verdugo, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton clogging the corner outfield and designated hitter slots -- but he's more good than great out there. Given his build, most think Dominguez will lose a step and move to a corner eventually. Yankees fans can expect at least average on-base percentages because of his advanced eye and something like 25-30 homers with both defensive and baserunning value, but those might be more early-career qualities to enjoy.
22. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF, Minnesota Twins
Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Squatty outfielder with plus power and patience
Rodriguez has some similarities to Dominguez, as I nod to in the type listed above. He isn't a burner in timed speed, but he has better defensive instincts than Dominguez and also has an arm that can fit anywhere in the outfield. Rodriguez has gotten bigger in the past few years and had knee surgery, so I'm not sure he's a long-term slam-dunk center fielder but he belongs there for now. The sales pitch is that he is a lefty with plus raw power and perhaps the best eye in the minor leagues, drawing 172 walks in 183 career pro games. For context, Juan Soto led the majors in walks last season with 132 in 162 games. Rodriguez should run below average batting averages but will draw tons of walks and might hit 25 homers while playing center field, but he's also played only 183 career pro games.
23. Roman Anthony, RF, Boston Red Sox
Age: 19 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Classic plus power-and-patience right fielder but with real defensive value
Anthony was a known prospect on the showcase circuit as an underclassman, but didn't perform that well in the summer before his draft spring. The tools were there, though, and he had a big spring while facing solid pitching in South Florida and at a loaded NHSI event with over 100 scouts in attendance. He was still somewhat divisive entering the draft, as a compensation-round pick for some, a third-rounder for others since he was a likely corner outfielder with spotty performance. The Red Sox paid him late-first-round money ($2.5 million) as the 79th overall pick, and he has smashed expectations in pro ball, reaching Double-A as a teenager.
He plays center field and is fine there, but is an average runner who fits better long term as a good right fielder. Anthony's sales pitch is, like Dominguez and Rodriguez above him, plus pitch selection (95 walks in 126 pro games) and easy plus raw power. He has 30-homer upside but hasn't dialed in his launch angle enough to take full advantage of it just yet. There's a compelling case that by midseason Anthony will be torching the upper levels and looking like he could debut after he turns 20 years old in May. But he's also played in only 126 pro games so no problem if it takes a bit longer.
24. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Lower-slot lefty who flashes three plus pitches and components for starter command
Tiedemann was eligible as a 17-year-old high school lefty in the 2020 draft and went to a SoCal junior college because his signing bonus price wasn't met. His stuff ticked up a notch, as he began flashing three above-average pitches headlined by a sinker/slider combo. I thought he'd go in the second round and graded him as such, but he lasted until the 91st overall pick in 2021. In 2022, he started his pro career and his stuff spiked another notch or two, sitting 94-96 and flashing three plus pitches. Tiedemann was limited to 15 starts in 2023 due to an early biceps issue, but he finished the season in Triple-A. He could make double-digit big league starts in 2024 and has front-line potential if he can repeat his delivery well enough to turn over lineups.
25. Colt Emerson, SS, Seattle Mariners
Age: 18 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: The top post-draft helium name could be a plus hitter with 20 homers at shortstop
I have frank discussions with scouts and execs in the week or two before the draft as things become clear enough that teams know which players they have a chance at, and thus can share their true opinion on guys they can't draft. I didn't see Emerson in the spring and noticed more than a few scouts asking me if I saw him to solicit my opinion. I didn't think much of it until the third time I was asked and that scout revealed (because his team was out of position) that Emerson was his pick to click in the class and he believed he would be the one to emerge from a muddled group of prep hitters that I ranked 16th through 45th and was shuffling all spring. I circled back to the first two scouts and they more or less agreed; I had already locked my rankings at this point, so it was just something to have in my back pocket.
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The Mariners scooped up Emerson with the 22nd overall pick (about where he was expected to go) and in 24 pro games after signing, he hit .374/.496/.550, mostly at Low-A and just after turning 18 years old. I checked in with some sources who don't work for Seattle to see if the buzz matched the numbers and these scouts were doing cartwheels through the phone. I looked at the TrackMan data, and it's excellent as well.
At draft time, Emerson was an average runner with a shot to stick at shortstop, average power potential and a 55-grade hit tool. Now it's looking more like a plus hit tool with plus pitch selection and a notch more power, which might not sound like much but shoots him to the top of a tightly packed group. The industry already seems to be universally sold on Emerson being the real deal, so there's a chance he could zoom through the minors; keep an eye on him out of the gates this spring.
26. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Probably not a shortstop but has plus power, patience and bat speed
Like many players in this range of the list, Luciano was a top player in his international class, signing for $2.6 million in the 2018 class due to his electric bat speed. Luciano has consistently played shortstop in the minors, including in his 2023 big league debut, and he's improved enough now that scouts say he's playable there with being a strong third baseman as a backup plan. At the plate, Luciano can be whiff-prone due to in-zone swing and miss and relying on his bat speed more than his below-average bat control, but has a good sense of the strike zone and 30-plus homer upside. He's a good big leaguer of some sort, with outcomes ranging from a boom-or-bust third baseman with a bunch of strikeouts or a legitimate star shortstop hitting 30 homers a year.
27. Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 19 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Lefty-hitting teenaged catcher with 30+ homer upside and polish in other areas
Basallo was a notable, late-rising prospect in the 2021 international class, getting $1.3 million due to his big left-handed power and the tools to imagine he could become a long-term catcher if he didn't eventually physically outgrow the position. In 2023, he made his full-season debut as an 18-year-old and made it all the way to Double-A, smashing expectations by hitting .313 with 20 homers while his domestic counterparts were facing high school competition.
He has 30-plus homer upside, playable bat control and currently below-average but playable pitch selection, which is impressive given his age vs. competition level. All the components are here for a special hitter, but he's near the bottom of the scale as a runner with varying takes on what kind of catcher he might be -- with first base being the alternative. That said, he has a plus-plus arm, helping him catch 46 of 139 base stealers (33%) in 2023, so in a robo ump future, the bar for defensive ability is pretty low if he can limit the running game.
28. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire
Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Slightly better raw tools than Colson Montgomery (No. 8 on this list), but the performance has been merely good
Mayer was tabbed early in his high school career as a potential early-first-round pick and he held that status wire-to-wire, going fourth overall in the 2021 draft after ranking second on my final draft board. His tools are still largely what was expected on draft day with normal physical maturity: sound lefty swing with above-average bat control, plus raw power potential, and a shortstop fit buoyed more by hands/actions than pure speed or gaudy arm strength.
Mayer has been trying to dial in his offensive approach, with better pitch selection than bat control in 2022 (producing a 16% walk rate), then it flipped in 2023 (down to a 10% walk rate), with a breaking-in period after being promoted both years. This analysis is a bit critical because his production/position/age combination is still excellent, but expectations are that Mayer would be a top 10 prospect at this point and he hasn't quite put it all together for an extended period.
29. Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins
Age: 22 | Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Type: Polished, near-sure-thing solid everyday infielder with medium upside
Lee was a late-first-round prospect out of high school, but ultimately didn't have his signing bonus price met because teams were a little worried about a previous back issue. He went to Cal Poly, playing for Team USA in the summers and continued to prove that his back wasn't an issue and the rosiest prep projections were accurate. The Twins took him eighth overall in 2022, and he finished the 2023 season in Triple-A.
Lee doesn't have big raw tools, with only his hit tool grading as plus. He also fits in a long history of players like Jhonny Peralta who at first blush look nothing like a prototypical big league shortstop and are below-average straight-line runners, but are actually good enough to be at least an acceptable fringy defender -- if not a bit better as they know how to work around their physical limitations. Lee should eventually end up at third base, with solid-average power (call it 20ish homers most years) to profile on a corner.
30. Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Power fastball/breaking ball starter with front-line potential
Horton is yet another member of the 2020 draft prep class and he was another tough evaluation who got to school because he was a top-three-rounds prospect as a shortstop and pitcher while also being a factor to play quarterback at Oklahoma, which drove up his signing bonus price tag. That price wasn't met and he went to college where he walked on as a quarterback but didn't see the field and missed his freshman baseball season because of Tommy John surgery. He returned midway through his sophomore season in 2022 (barely draft eligible by age) and slowly picked up momentum throughout the spring, finishing strong as a consensus first-rounder but beating expectations in going No. 7 overall.
His fastball shape caused it to play a notch below the velocity, but that improved in his pro debut so his 95-97 mph heater plays like it's velocity for a plus pitch. Horton's selling point is an easy plus slider that he can add and subtract from along with the athleticism to repeat his delivery for starter command and a pro debut in 2023 that showed just that: 117 strikeouts to 27 walks in 88⅓ innings. He doesn't throw his changeup much and it's a clear third pitch, but we've seen front-line power righties succeed without a conventional above-average or heavily used third pitch (Zack Wheeler, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease), so that's less of a concern for Horton reaching his upside.
31. Jett Williams, SS, New York Mets
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Plus runner and hitter fits somewhere up the middle and has sneaky power for 5-foot-6
Williams didn't stand out early on the showcase circuit, because he's short and at that point in the evaluation cycle, scouts are looking for tools and upside while letting the good baseball players dawn on them with months of in-game reps. Well, Williams is a really good baseball player whom I started recognizing later in the summer. He also has better tools than he was given credit for and that helped him go 14th overall in the 2022 MLB draft.
Williams is a plus-plus runner with average raw power and above-average contact skills. He has a great feel for getting to that raw power in games (13 homers across three levels that he was young for in 2023), something that helped fuel Anthony Volpe's quick rise through the minors. Williams' 45 stolen bases show that his instincts work on the bases. Defensively, he has enough glove to be pretty good at shortstop, but center field (where he started seeing time in 2023) and second base probably fit him a little better because of his fringe-to-average arm.
32. Jeferson Quero, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Catcher with four above-average-to-plus tools but needs to cut down on chase
Quero, from Venezuela, is another under-the-radar international signing, getting $200,000 in the 2019 class. He was on prospect radars due to a loud 23-game pro debut in Rookie ball in 2021, but jumped up to 141st on last year's list due to a strong age-19 performance across both A levels. He continued his climb playing all of his age-20 season at Double-A with more walks, more power and fewer strikeouts than 2023.
He's a standout defender behind the plate with a plus arm and he has tools as a hitter, with above-average raw power and plus bat control. His well-below-average speed isn't much of an issue but a soft skill -- his swing (56%) and chase (36%) rates -- are the main issue here, both about 10% worse than relevant averages. Quero is physically talented enough to make this work in the minors, spoiling good pitches or getting mistakes, but that gets harder at each new level and the list of standout big leaguers with those figures is very short.
Luckily, the prevailing theory in the industry is that this is the most teachable skill for hitters, more about discipline or training than developing a physical skill. This is also something that could be developing behind the scenes but throwing Quero in the deep end of the pool on an age vs. level basis could be obscuring it. Keep an eye on it because this one thing will dictate if Quero becomes one of the best catchers in baseball or just a good starter.
33. Adael Amador, SS, Colorado Rockies
Age: 20 | Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Type: Plus hitter with a great approach who can stick at shortstop, but without much over-the-fence power right now.
You might be thinking that given the above "Type" and Amador's team that he could juice his power a few notches in reality. I don't consider that type of thing because he'd be ranked in the same spot if he were to be traded tomorrow, but there is some raw power in Amador's bat. He just has a lower launch angle and it's more gap-to-gap doubles than homers. He's also not that physically projectable and he almost posted a .400 OBP in High-A as a 20-year-old, so I wouldn't be inclined to mess with what's working. That said, the components appear to be here (hitting the ball hard in games, good in-zone contact rate) that there could be a swing adjustment. Amador is a solid bet to stick at shortstop long term as a solid average defender with average speed, so you're getting a big leaguer but it's still up for debate in the industry what kind of impact he'll have
34. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 19 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Precocious power-and-patience second baseman with average-ish other tools.
Johnson was identified as a potential high draft pick early in his high school career (at least as a sophomore, if not a freshman). He went wire-to-wire with Druw Jones among Georgia prep position players in the 2022 class, with Jones being selected second by Arizona and Johnson going fourth to Pittsburgh.
Johnson is a fringy runner and fine second baseman, but the sales pitch here is plus lefty raw power, plus pitch selection and good feel to get to his power in games. He hit 18 home runs last season despite a slow start: through July 1, Johnson was hitting just.232/.387/.395 with 7 homers in 222 PA, a 19% walk rate and 32% strikeout rate in Low-A. He caught fire after that while playing mostly in High-A, putting up a .256/.454/.483 line with 11 homers in 240 PA and an absurd 25% walk rate to a 20% strikeout rate.
I graded Johnson as having a plus hit tool pre-draft, and he started leaning more into a power-and-patience skill set in 2023 with a chance he could still adjust that approach in the upper minors.
35. Noelvi Marte, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Above-average hit and power upside at third base, but still dialing things in.
Marte was one of the top players in the 2018 international class, signing for $1.6 million with the Mariners and immediately beating expectations in pro ball despite the lost 2020 minor league season. In 172 games over his first two seasons, he hit 26 homers and stole 41 bases as a shortstop who was young for each level he played at.
After opening the 2022 season in High-A with more of the same (15 homers, 13 stolen bases in 85 games), he was traded to Cincinnati along with Edwin Arroyo (also on this Top 100), Andrew Moore and Levi Stoudt for Luis Castillo. Marte continued to perform for Cincinnati but lost a step of speed after getting bigger and made the permanent move to third base around the same time he made his big league debut in a crowded Cincinnati infield picture. Marte hit just 16 homers across three levels last season despite plus raw power, so there's more ceiling to be found if he can incorporate more lift on his hard-hit balls.
36. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Type: Lower-slot lefty starter that flashes three plus pitches but command can hold him back at times
Harrison is yet another high school player from the 2020 draft class who didn't get a full spring to prove himself to most scouts -- but the Giants had figured out how good he was without the extra time. They gave Harrison $2.5 million in the third round when many teams just thought Harrison wanted too much money for his solid-average stuff and feel from a low slot.
Almost immediately after signing, Harrison's velo spiked, going from 88-92 mph on the summer showcase circuit in 2019 to to 93-95 mph and that has held for basically his entire pro career. This helps his offspeed stuff play up to where all three pitches are 55-or-60-grade offerings. His command has lagged a bit behind though, spiking to 6.6 BB/9 in Triple-A last year, but those numbers improved in the big leagues when he walked 2.9 batters per 9 innings over 34⅔ innings.
I'd expect Harrison to throw 100-150 innings with intermittent moments of brilliance in 2024, but there's a shot he comes out of the gates hot and mounts a Rookie of the Year campaign as the Giants second best starter behind Logan Webb.
37. Matt Shaw, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Built like an NFL fullback with an NBA-level vertical jump and above-average tools to match
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Shaw slowly gained momentum as a prospect at Maryland, eventually drawing first-round grades after posting a 1.006 OPS in the Cape Cod League. He performed well in his draft spring despite it being obvious he wouldn't play shortstop much longer after college. He is an above-average runner and hitter with plus raw power and the tools to fit at either second or third base long-term. He also proved his athleticism before the draft with this vertical jump.
Shaw went 13th overall to the Cubs last summer and was my 10th-ranked prospect in the most loaded draft class in at least a decade and is now the seventh-highest ranked player from the 2023 draft on this list. Like a few others in this range, Shaw is another pick to click by some scouts to shoot up this list and maybe reach the big leagues in 2024.
38. Cole Young, SS, Seattle Mariners
Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Plus hitter who might slide over to second base with average other tools
Young part of a group of recent prep position picks who have turned into arrow-up prospects with the Mariners, joining 2023 first-rounder Colt Emerson and 2021 picks Harry Ford and Edwin Arroyo. That's one reason why I'm betting at least one of the other 2023 picks in this demographic (Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete, Aidan Smith) will also shoot up boards in the coming years. Young is probably the lowest upside player of the group, but still projects as an everyday player -- in the mold of Brooks Lee, who is ranked a few spots ahead of him on this list.
Young is fine defensively at shortstop but might move to second base before he gets to the big leagues, as that's his best spot long term. At the plate, Young is a plus hitter with plus pitch selection and average raw power that he has a feel for getting to in games. He should open 2024 in Double-A and has a chance to be a factor in the majors late in the 2024 season if he keeps hitting like this.
39. Drew Gilbert, CF, New York Mets
Age: 23 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: My pick to click for the 2022 draft is a 5-foot-9 firecracker with solid-average offensive upside
I've made a point the past few drafts of picking a player whom I think the industry has all wrong, and it turns out that I have a type. Tyler Black was my pick in 2021 (33rd overall pick, now easily on this list) and then Gilbert in 2022 (28th overall pick). Both are shorter, up-the-middle types with average-at-best power and standout hit tools. Black doesn't offer much more than that while Gilbert is a plus runner with a plus arm (he was a real D1 prospect on the mound) who can play center field and performed well in the SEC.
Gilbert hit 18 homers in 2023, mostly in Double-A and was a co-headliner along with Ryan Clifford (who is also on this list) in the Mets' return in last summer's Justin Verlander trade. It seemed absurd to me at draft time that Gilbert wasn't thought of as a slam-dunk good big leaguer -- likely a low-end starter -- and now he might be that as soon as late 2024 for a franchise that is suddenly flush with upper minors/young major league position players.
40. Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Age: 22 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Above average at everything in the batter's box (left-handed hitter), doesn't offer much speed or defensive value.
Keith was another member of the 2020 draft high school class who was a tough evaluation because he seemed like he could fit at any of the four infield positions and was also a pro prospect as a pitcher. The Tigers took him in the fifth round for a $500,000 bonus and his breakout started with the 48 minor league games he played in 2022 followed by a strong Arizona Fall League showing, landing him 75th on last year's list.
He has plus power and feel to get to it in games, hitting 27 homers last season in the upper minors, but he offers little in terms of speed or defensive value with just solid average on-base skills. Third base is his primary position but he started playing second base more frequently in 2023. I think his long-term fit will be playing all four corners with first base his most natural spot at maturity, but the 25-30 homers from the left side will play anywhere, and the Tigers are confident enough in Keith that they gave him a $28.6 million contract ahead of his major league debut.
41. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Age: 24| Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Pitchability college lefty whose stuff ticked up a notch and now looks like a midrotation starter
Wicks went 21st overall in 2021 out of Kansas State and was seen as safe (plus-plus changeup, plus command) but not that exciting (88-92 mph, fringy breaking stuff). His stuff ticked up in 2022 and he maintained it in 2023, averaging 92.6 mph with his heater. Wick's breaking stuff also ticked up to play a bit above average and his changeup and command are both still strong.
His big league debut was solid and he now looks like a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter, the high end of what you could've expected on draft day.
42. Chase DeLauter, RF, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 22 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Late-blooming small college outfielder with an injury history but plus tools
DeLauter was little-known to national scouts playing at James Madison until he broke out in the Cape Cod League in 2021. He broke his foot during the 2022 spring season and faced pro level pitching in only a few weekends, including a terrible showing at Florida State with dozens of top-level scouts in attendance. He still went No. 16 overall in the 2022 draft even though some teams assumed he'd last into the 20s due to those concerns. DeLauter's foot caused more issues, delaying his pro debut until June of 2023, but he made it to Double-A after 51 pro games due in large part to an excellent control of the strike zone.
DeLauter has a rare combination of size (6-foot-4, 235 pounds), power (at least plus, or 25-30 homer upside), and speed (around average, making him playable in center field, though he's more of a long-term right fielder). Some in the industry say 2024 will be his big breakout campaign culminating in a run to the big leagues.
43. Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs
Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Power-and-patience right fielder posting near-top-of-MLB exit velos at age 20
Caissie was a somewhat-surprising, late-rising second-round pick by the Padres in the 2020 draft. His selling points were having big left-handed raw power along with two of the best indicators for future growth: being 17 years old on draft day and a Canadian high school position player. Before playing a pro game, Caissie was shipped to the Cubs in the Yu Darvish trade and has performed even better than expected since, making him one of the notable prospects that Padres GM A.J. Preller probably wishes he could have back.
Caissie's max exit velo last season was 117 mph at age 20, which would put him in the top 10 in MLB right now -- ahead of Aaron Judge. He has above-average pitch selection and the launch angle to make the most of his standout plus-plus raw power, which he showed by hitting 22 homers last season in Double-A. Since he's still very young for each level he's been at, I wouldn't expect him in Chicago in 2024 -- but he could be a real factor in the middle of the Cubs' lineup in 2025.
44. Sebastian Walcott, SS, Texas Rangers
Age: 17 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Junior Caminero (No. 2 on this list) starter kit, but still just 17 years old with little experience above Rookie ball
If Shaw (No. 43) looks like an NFL fullback, Walcott looks more like a tight end or maybe a pass-rush specialist at 6-foot-4. He's in the mold of Caminero because he has explosive plus-plus raw power potential, plenty of quickness and fine motor skills to stay in the infield (probably at third base long term, but he'll play shortstop for now), and above-average bat control to project enough contact to get to the power in games.
Because future superstars like Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and Juan Soto were identified this quickly in pro ball (or as amateurs in some cases; Walcott signed out of the Bahamas for $3.2 million) with these sorts of tools, the hype exploded as soon as Walcott was playing intersquads in Arizona as the industry is always in search of the next big thing -- that's how the Padres got Tatis Jr. in a trade before he played a pro game.
Walcott could be something like that, which is rare and exciting. He has also played 39 pro games in this country -- just four above Rookie ball -- and is still 17 years old for a few more months, so I've hedged a bit here. There's potential he could be in the top 10 of my rankings by the summer, but he could also be a merely good prospect by then, too.
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45. Parker Meadows, CF, Detroit Tigers
Age: 24 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Austin's little brother has even more tools, headlined by plus speed and raw power
Both Meadows brothers were early-round prospects out of Grayson HS (outside of Atlanta). Austin went ninth overall to the Pirates in 2013 despite projecting as a left fielder. He has had a couple of strong big league seasons, while Parker was seen as more of a true center fielder with more upside at draft time, but lasted until the 44th overall pick in 2018 because of questions about his hit tool.
Those questions start with the 6-foot-5 Parker's longer levers putting him behind the eight ball for covering the whole plate, but he has steadily made progress without undercutting his 25-homer upside. We've seen a version of this tooled-up center fielder who can hit at Triple-A but can't quite put it together in the big leagues (Lewis Brinson, Bradley Zimmer). But Meadows was already pretty good (and a bit unlucky) in his 37-game big league debut last summer.
A solid outcome this year would be something like a .240/.340/.400 line with 15-20 homers and solid-average center-field defense, which should equal a 2-something WAR and possibly garner some Rookie of the Year votes.
46. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: The best raw stuff in the minor leagues, but from a unique delivery with reliever risk
Misiorowski was a 6-foot-7 deep projection prospect as a high schooler in 2020, but had an abbreviated summer and very abbreviated spring. He went to a Missouri junior college in 2021 and missed most of the season with a knee injury, then came out throwing in the high-90s in 2022, but with 20-grade command. His command improved to the point of being decent by draft time and the consistency of his plus breaking stuff prompted the Brewers to build their draft around him, shelling out a $2.35 million bonus in the second round, the biggest bonus of their draft class. Misiorowski only threw 1⅔ pro innings that summer but had a huge breakout in 2023, getting to Double-A by striking out 110 in 71⅓ innings across three levels.
You can see his delivery and slo-mo releases during the Futures Game, where he sat 99-102 mph for an inning and everything he threw was plus or plus-plus -- all cutting/breaking stuff, no changeups. Milwaukee has helped make unheralded late-bloomers (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta) and relief-only types (Josh Hader, Devin Williams) into the best versions of themselves so I'm confident they'll turn Misiorowski into something of note, he just might be throwing 1-2 innings at a time of top-tier stuff with playable command.
47. Curtis Mead, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 23 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Above average at everything in the batter's box (right-handed hitter), doesn't offer much speed or defensive value.
Mead signed with the Phillies for $200,000 out of Australia in 2017 then was traded to the Rays in a 2019 deal for lefty Cristopher Sanchez -- in retrospect a fair and consequential trade for both clubs. At that point, Mead had played only 46 games, all in Rookie ball, and was just starting to show that his offensive ability had been underrated as an amateur. He quickly broke out with the Rays but moved down the defensive spectrum from an OK infielder at a couple spots to more of a positionless corner masher. He had a bit of a down year in 2023, including posting a .676 OPS during his 24-game big league debut, but the underlying metrics are still solid.
48. Heston Kjerstad, RF, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 24 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Classic power-over-hit everyday right fielder
Kjerstad was a surprise below-slot No. 2 overall pick in 2020 out of Arkansas, but didn't play a pro game until 2022 due to myocarditis in 2021. A hamstring strain delayed his late start to the 2022 season as well, but he went to the Arizona Fall League to get in reps. Then he broke out in 2023, going from Double-A to the big leagues and hitting .303 with 23 homers over three levels.
Kjerstad still chases a bit more than you'd like to see and is limited to a corner with around 25-homer power potential, so his upside knocks him out of the top tier of prospect. He is very likely to be a good everyday player, with a chance at being a 3-to-4 win type MLB outfielder.
49. Tink Hence, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Potential third starter but might not have a true plus pitch
Hence was a solid projection prep righty in the 2020 draft class who was just starting to show signs that he was turning the corner of turning potential into increased stuff right as the spring ended early, with only some teams watching closely. The Cardinals took him 63rd overall and started him slow, limiting him to 60 pro innings through the 2022 season more to reduce wear and tear than anything else. He officially took his big step forward last season, getting to Double-A at age 20 and throwing 96.0 innings across two levels.
As you can see in this video from the Futures Game, Hence has four above-average pitches and starter command. He is more the sum of the parts with easy operation that allows scouts to imagine more coming, than a pitcher with overwhelming stuff, even though he sits 94-97 mph.
50. Colton Cowser, CF, Baltimore Orioles
Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire
Age: 23 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: An outfield tweener with a great eye and emerging power
Like Kjerstad (No. 48), Cowser was a surprise underslot college outfielder the Orioles took high in the draft, paying him $4.9 million as the fifth overall pick in 2021. The sales pitch at that point was a plus hit tool from a lanky, 6-foot-3 center fielder and enough other tools, but some teams questioned his power potential and ultimate upside.
Cowser morphed a bit by tapping into his power more (19 homers in 2022, 17 homers in 2023) and posting strikeout rates from 25-30% leading up to his big league debut. Now his power seems to have settled at roughly league average and his walk rate will be above average, while his hit tool and defense are both questions -- but both should still be playable, likely close to average.
51. Tyler Black, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 23 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: My original draft day broadcast pick to click has arrived, even if he doesn't have a sexy upside
I had a feeling I would like Black when I scouted the Wright State second baseman in person in spring 2021, but after seeing him a bunch of factors merged to make him the best value in the draft in my eyes. He's Canadian-born and was at a cold-weather mid-major college so he's already behind the eight ball when it comes to scouting opportunities and level of competition faced, but those are also solid markers for potential late-bloomers. Normally this sort of player jumps out to scouts and raises his profile when he plays in advanced summer leagues, but there was no Cape Cod League to compete in during Black's key summer of 2020.
He stood out from a numbers perspective (1.070 OPS) as a true freshman and got on my follow list by posting solid numbers on a team that also had a third- and fourth-round pick in the lineup. I noticed average raw power when watching his batting practice, but he wasn't pulling or lifting the ball much. Then I saw that his in-game swing was basically cutting him off from doing either thing, a seemingly easy fix for the weakest part of his game. He had more walks than strikeouts (38 to 18) as a freshman and again as a junior (39 to 25) while boosting his power output (seven homers as a freshman, 13 as a junior).
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He wasn't a great defender or thrower but was close to average on both counts playing second base and he was a plus runner. My theory is that if Black was from the a warm-weather climate, went to a bigger school, had a functional transfer portal or just went to the Cape, he would've entered the spring as a potential late-first-round pick and likely been selected between picks 12 and 20, so I ranked him 16th on my draft board. Black entered the spring as a third-to-fifth-rounder and ended up going 33rd overall to Milwaukee.
He performed well in 2022 with more walks than strikeouts and a .406 OBP at High-A, playing third base and center field, but not showing much power. He took a big step forward in 2023, hitting 18 homers and stealing 55 bases across Double-A and Triple-A with a .930 OPS. The change was evident in his TrackMan data, with his swing plane (average launch angle on hard hit balls, which is a solid proxy for loft at impact on a swing) jumping from 5 degrees to a league-average 11 degrees while his age-indexed exit-velo grades went from 45-grade to a little above average, with barrel rates to match. This is a perfect example of the "boring" hit-first college hitter without big conventional upside having some latent ability that with a couple of breaks can make him a top-10 player in a draft class.
Black is now knocking on the door of the big leagues as a lefty hitter with a plus hit tool, plus pitch selection, average in-game power, plus speed and the tools to play a passable to good second base, third base, or outfield. He joins Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Jeferson Quero, William Conteras and Brock Wilken as potential strong position players for the next chapter of the Brewers, with Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer and Brice Turang potentially breaking into that group.
52. Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Unique prospect has plus power, patience, and speed and might be a catcher
Ford has a number of unique qualities. He's a plus runner, a catcher, and I once described him as looking like a yoga instructor who was also into powerlifting. He's also potentially the first African American regular catcher since Charles Johnson almost 20 years ago. Ford was born to English immigrants and played for Great Britain in the World Baseball Classic. Lastly, Ford also is among the best in all of the minors leagues at pitch selection, a plus-plus skill.
He made a positive swing change (but also tinkered a little too much) after a solid summer showcase season into a strong draft spring, going 12th overall to the Mariners. He's still tracking like he'll be a catcher, but would fit in all three outfield spots and maybe a few spots on the infield if it doesn't work out behind the plate. He offers above-average in-game power, fringe-to-average contact rates, and a strong OBP that, along with his baserunning value, would make him a regular at any spot on the field.
53. Jared Jones, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 22 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Two-way prep athlete who has had plus stuff for awhile with feel that's coming along
Jones was known early in his prep career as an infielder, but more as a right-handed pitcher and was one of the first players in his class to get into the mid 90s with his fastball. He held that advantage through draft day, going 44th overall and getting $2.2 million, and was a clear stuff-over-command type early in his pro career: if you catch him on the right day, he'll sit 95-98 mph with three plus pitches and starter caliber command.
He took a step forward in 2023, striking out 146 and walking 50 over 126⅓ innings while pitching in Double-A and Triple-A as a 21-year-old. Now his command is in the current 40-, maybe 45-grade area (on the 20-80 scale) at times, which might be enough to turn over a lineup with his raw stuff. He should get a big league shot in 2024 in a Pirates rotation with only one controllable, clear answer in Mitch Keller.
54. Connor Phillips, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Top-five best raw stuff in the minor leagues but still working on precision
Phillips had late-rising buzz out of a Texas high school in the 2019 draft thanks to a late velo bump, but his signing bonus price wasn't met, so he went to McLennan (Texas) junior college. He eventually got a bit over $1 million in the fourth round of the 2020 draft because his stuff spiked again. He lasted that long due to the reliever risk -- that still exists -- but his stuff has played better than expected in pro ball and also improved yet again.
Phillips now has a plus-plus heater that sits 95-98 mph with ride on the pitch that helps it play up from that. His slider and curveball are also plus pitches that continue to improve because of his arm speed, with the slider getting a 70 grade from some scouts. His changeup lags behind the other pitches, flashing average but not often located well. His overall command is still below average but getting close to good enough to turn over a big league lineup given his raw stuff.
He struck out 26 in 20⅔ big league innings over five starts last summer, so the question is whether Phillips eventually becomes a true starter, a 100- to 120-inning hybrid type arm or a true reliever. No matter which path his career takes, he will provide real big league value of some sort likely starting in 2024.
55. Brady House, SS, Washington Nationals
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Tools galore could be an MVP-level talent if he cleans up his pitch selection
I've compared House's build to a scaled-down Dwight Howard due to his broad shoulders and titanic raw tools. House had plus-plus raw power as a high school sophomore, posted above-average-to-plus run times as a senior, has an easy plus arm that has been into the mid-90s on the mound and is athletic enough to play a passable shortstop, though being an above-average third baseman looks like his best spot long term. The issue, which was obvious even in high school, is that House swings and chases a lot. His swing rate was 54% last season (about 10% over MLB average), and he is roughly the same amount worse than average at chasing pitches out of the zone -- with both rates a bit worse than he posted in 2022.
House has above-average bat-to-ball ability but some say the upper minors is where this approach will start leading to struggles and then the question becomes if he can make the adjustment. I think it would be good for House to spend the whole 2024 season at Double-A as a 20/21-year-old -- after reaching the level last year -- to allow him to make adjustments after matching up with the same pitchers repeatedly and to learn those soft skills before facing big league caliber arms that could twist him into a pretzel. If he can get his swing and chase rates to around average, he could be a perennial five-plus WAR superstar.
56. Spencer Jones, RF, New York Yankees
Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire
Age: 22 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: A 6-foot-6 Yankees corner outfielder with huge raw power who was a first-round pick out of college (wink wink)
There's some obvious Aaron Judge parallels that were pointed out before the Yankees drafted Jones, including both coming from California high schools, but there are also some key differences. Jones was a clear seven-figure prospect out of high school (as both a hitter and pitcher) but he went to Vanderbilt when his bonus price wasn't met after he broke his arm that spring. He didn't play much his first two years at Vandy before breaking out in the 2021 Cape Cod League, following it up during the 2022 spring season and eventually going 25th overall.
Jones is deceptively quick for his size as a solid-average runner who stole 43 bases in 2023, but the calling card here is his plus-plus raw power. He hit only 16 homers last season, which might be below expectations for some -- but his exit velos were plus-plus (113 mph max), so he's just not lifting the ball quite enough when he's hitting it hard. If he can lift his hard-hit launch angle from 7 degrees to around 15 degrees without losing too much contact, then he'll become a star slugger. That's certainly doable, but not quite as easy as you may think.
57. Noah Schultz, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Left-handed Gumby from a low slot with three plus-or-better pitches, but not refined or experienced yet
As a 6-foot-9 Illinois prep lefty with an ease to delivery, upper-80s heater and breaking ball from a lower arm slot, Shultz was an early commit to Vandy but never made it to campus. He progressed to sitting 88-92 mph on the showcase circuit before his draft spring, then reached 97 mph with improved offspeed stuff (but with a notch worse command) in 2022. Schultz went to a midtier collegiate summer league to get more innings and performed well against older competition, with the command scouts were expecting to see during his prep season.
The White Sox took him 26th overall that summer and he has thrown only 27 pro innings spread over 10 starts due to some minor injuries When he has pitched, his stuff is still electric, with his fastball an easy plus pitch that sits 94-96 mph with ride and a flat approach while his two-plane breaker might be even better and his changeup life mirrors his fastball.
He's now 20 years old and needs to post bulk innings to get any higher than this on the list, but the pieces are here for a potential front-line starter if he looks the same with a scaled-up workload.
58. Luisangel Acuna, SS, New York Mets
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Brother of Ronald is 5-foot-8, electric, the entirety of the Max Scherzer trade return, and might be ready soon
Listed at just 5-foot-8, 181 pounds, Acuna might not immediately grab your attention if you see him walking around before the game starts. But he is electric on the field, with plus speed, an above-average arm and a quick first step that allows him to play any position.
His plus bat speed, sneaky solid-average raw power, and Ronald-esque swing also make him one of the more exciting hitters to watch on this list. His swing and chase rates are a bit higher than average, but he appears more out of control than he actually is because of the effort in his swing.
After he came to the Mets in last summer's trade with the Rangers, a couple of scouts told me they think Acuna will settle in as a plus defensive second baseman with baserunning value (57 stolen bases last year) and be something like a league-average threat at the plate, but they also aren't totally sure how Acuna will choose to use his tools or how big league pitching will fare in attacking him. That sounds like former major leaguer Orlando Hudson with 20+ extra stolen bases per year, which would be an occasional All-Star.
59. Robby Snelling, LHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Type: Physical, aggressive lefty with three average-or-better pitches for strikes
Snelling was a four-star football recruit as a linebacker and that both explains what he looks like physically in addition to how he approaches pitching. Listed a 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, he comes at hitters early and often with a 92-94 mph heater that plays above it's velocity -- particularly at the top of the zone -- and he also projects for above-average command of the pitch. His two-plane breaking ball is solid average and his changeup projects to become average, so his raw stuff isn't gaudy, but he got to Double-A last season as a teenager because of his polish on the mound.
60. Roderick Arias, SS, New York Yankees
Age: 19 | Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Type: Switch-hitting shortstop with slick glove and big power could shoot up this list next year
Arias was the clear best player in the 2022 international class at the time (he got a $4 million bonus) and still holds that distinction, just edging out Josue De Paula on this list.
Arias has played only 58 pro games the past two summers due to two separate hand injuries but has drawn an absurd 56 walks in 270 PA (21%). These numbers jive with his approach, which is to tap into his plus raw power -- as the Yankees tend to teach their top prospects -- often at the expense of in-zone whiffs.
Arias is ranked this high because he has 30-homer upside and is an above-average defensive shortstop with a plus arm, but he still has a long way to go.
61. Kyle Teel, C, Boston Red Sox
Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Strong defender with above-average offensive upside
Teel was a notable prospect out of high school as a catcher with some bat speed, but he attended Virginia when his signing bonus price wasn't met. He has made a lot of progress defensively and now is above average with excellent quickness around the plate and an above-average arm. Teel morphed a bit at the plate, shifting to a power-over-hit in his draft year at Virginia and his overall offensive potential is what helps him stand out as a prospect.
My pre-draft evaluation placed Teel seventh on my board -- the Red Sox took him No. 14 overall -- and I thought adjusting his swing a bit to alter his hand path could allow him to be a better hitter at the big league level.
62. Xavier Isaac, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Hulking slugger who is also an advanced hitter with a good eye
Isaac was a known name on the showcase circuit as an underclassman but didn't play in the normal summer events because of injury, so he was a priority player for teams in the 2022 spring. Early returns were positive, with reports that his plus-plus lefty raw power and extremely physical 6-foot-3 build were what you wanted to see from a player with this profile.
By this profile, I mean an early-round high school first base-only prospect, which is one of a few subsets of draft prospects that some teams are immediately out on. There are individual successes like Prince Fielder, Eric Hosmer or, more recently, Triston Casas, but teams had been moving away from this sort of prospect as draft models proliferated and a proxy for athleticism like positional value and/or speed became important variables.
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Isaac also didn't have a record of wood-bat summer performance against good pitching, so most teams thought he'd be a second-round pick or later-round overpay, but the Rays took him 29th overall and he didn't take a discount on the bonus. The buzz was that two other clubs were in position to take Isaac in the next 10-15 picks, both before the Rays' next pick, so it looks like Tampa Bay made the right call. Tampa Bay took first baseman Tre Morgan in the third round in 2023, Kyle Manzardo in 2021, and has shown interest in other early-round first-base-only prospects, so this seems to be part of a trend.
Isaac has raked in pro ball, getting to High-A as a teenager last year and posting a career .282/.390/.513 line with 19 homers in 454 PA across three levels. That home run total should increase as he dials in his launch angle on hard hit balls. There isn't much margin for error in his profile, but Isaac has all the makings of being a middle-of-the-order force for years.
63. Jace Jung, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Age: 23 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Similar to his older brother Josh, but left-handed and with less defensive value
Jung seemed destined to follow in his brother's footsteps to Texas Tech and as a high school infielder who is not a shortstop, teams weren't lined up to take him with an early pick. Jace raked in Lubbock, hitting .328/.468/.647 with 39 homers over 136 games and then went 12th overall to the Tigers in the 2022 draft.
Jung is playing exclusively at second base in the minors (first base and maybe left field are the other options) and he's just OK there with limited range due to his well-below-average speed. Jung has 20-to-25-homer upside and a hit tool that's a bit above average, down a tick from my pre-draft eval, as he's learned to lift the ball more effectively in pro ball. He and Colt Keith offer similar skills, with a near-big league ready package of very little speed and defense but a real hit/power combo from the left side.
64. Drew Thorpe, RHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 23 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Top prospect in the Juan Soto haul because he's close to majors with knockout changeup
Thorpe got on the national scouting stage when he pitched for collegiate Team USA during the summer before his draft years at UC Irvine. His velocity was good over the summer, getting into the mid-90s, then backed up to 88-91 mph in the spring -- but the scouts paying close attention said it was just because he was throwing too many breaking balls in college.
He now works 91-94 mph with big-league-ready command that projects above average while his breaking stuff is still fringe-to-average but his plus-plus changeup is the calling card here.
Thorpe beat expectations in dominating two levels last season, then was the headline prospect the Padres acquired in this offseason's Juan Soto trade with the Yankees. Look for Thorpe to continue his ascent by getting a 2024 big league look, becoming a bulk-innings starter and maybe a midrotation one by 2025.
65. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: No. 3/No. 4 starter who made huge improvements at Wake Forest to become a top-10 draft pick
Lowder has almost no scouting profile as a high school player, but is now used as an example of how good Wake Forest's scouting and development pipeline is at identifying characteristics that fit its approach. His velo spiked from the upper-80s to the mid-90s and while most of the Wake pitching staff worked with four-seam fastballs up in the zone and high-spin breaking balls down in the zone, Lowder succeeded as a lower arm slot, sinker/slider/changeup type with his plus changeup as his best pitch.
Lowder won't get a ton of swing and miss on his heater, but Lowder's ability to command his pitches is his true separator.
66. Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 23 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Knockout changeup, solid fastball/curveball, but command needs to get a notch better
Whisenhunt was a solid second-round prospect as a sophomore at East Carolina, getting national attention for an outing against Vanderbilt in a 2021 super regional where the main event was Kumar Rocker vs. Gavin Williams. There was buzz circulating during Whisenhunt's draft spring that he was sitting in the mid-90s in preseason starts and he leapt to the top of my follow list before the bad news was announced: he was suspended for the season due to a positive PED test that Whisenhunt said came from a national nutrition store chain. He made a few appearances on the Cape before the draft and went 66th overall for an overslot $1.86 million bonus.
The question was whether Whisenhunt's fastball velocity was truly the mid-90s that he showed in preseason starts or the 90-93 mph that he showed as a sophomore. He went to the Arizona Fall league after signing and was in the low-90s as he built back up and then in the 2023 regular season, he sat 92-95 mph, basically between the two levels. His plus-plus changeup is the one constant while his curveball gets better with the added arm speed, playing solid average right now.
The big things Whisenhunt must do to rise from here are prove that he's healthy after ending the season with an elbow sprain (it sounds like he is) and improve his fastball command so he can make his changeup even more effective when working ahead in counts.
67. Tommy Troy, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Above-average hit, power and speed tools from recent first-round pick
Troy was a solid prospect in high school, but teams weren't willing to pay the price tag to keep him from Stanford. He has steadily progressed in college while performing well in both of his summers in the Cape Cod League, so he entered the 2023 spring as a mid-first-round prospect, a status he held until the Diamondbacks took him 12th overall last summer.
Troy is a compact 5-foot-10 and played multiple infield positions in college, but seems to fit best at third long term. Like fellow 2023 college draftees Wyatt Langford and Matt Shaw, Troy has a football-type body and gridiron-like straight-line speed -- somewhat unexpected on a baseball field -- and posts plus run times. He also has above-average hit and power tools with solid pitch selection, so Troy seems like a good candidate to make it into the upper minors quickly.
68. Josue De Paula, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 18 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Corner-only fit but flashing plus hit and power tools along with plus pitch selection and he's still 18 years old
After some high profile signings didn't meet expectations, the Dodgers once again appear to be hitting in the international market at a high rate. Their 2022 signing class included De Paula, Samuel Munoz, Oswaldo Osorio and Mairoshendrick Martinus each for $750,000 or less and 2023 included Joendry Vargas (getting $2.1 million as the bonus exception to the rule), Eduardo Quintero and Arnaldo Lantigua who all now have real prospect value. De Paula appears to be the best of the group right now and the buzz is that he's the only untouchable prospect in the Dodgers' system.
He played 74 games in Low-A as a 17- and 18-year-old, posting nearly a .400 OBP with plus exit velos for his age (with physical projection to expect that to continue) and a .284 average. De Paula is a below-average runner who's limited to a corner outfield spot but has the instincts on the bases to steal 30 bases in 127 pro games. He'll need to lift that hard-hit balls more but some of his age peers are about to play a high school season then play Rookie ball in the summer for a month, so the precocious De Paula has tons of runway to continue to impress before he puts up gaudy home run numbers, but he might also do that soon.
69. Will Warren, RHP, New York Yankees
Age: 24 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Hellacious, plus-plus slider, solid-average other pitches and solid execution make him a potential midrotation starter in 2024.
Warren was an eighth-round pick from Southeastern Louisiana in 2021, signing for a $150,000 bonus and becoming another in a line of college pitchers from this part of the draft that the Yankees have turned into real big league value, often via trade. The list includes Chase Hampton, Ken Waldichuk, Richard Fitts, Chandler Champlain, Beck Way, and Hayden Wesneski all in a four-year span.
Because of his unheralded background, I don't have an extensive amateur history with Warren to call back to, just that he came up in my draft preparation for having a really good breaking ball. Warren slider's is a legit 70-grade pitch that you could even call an 80-grade pitch because of how well he locates it. His fastball and cutter both are above average while his changeup and curveball are both solid-average pitches.
Warren pitched most of 2023 in Triple-A so the only thing separating him from giving 100-plus innings in the majors this year is learning to execute and adjust at the highest level. He has the tools and preparation to make a ROY run, with Tanner Bibee's 2023 a high-end outcome to shoot for.
70. Chase Petty, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Reached triple digits in high school but has settled in with a 93-95 mph sinker, mixing in a plus slider
Petty became well-known for hitting 100 mph (and sometimes higher) at multiple events the summer before he was draft-eligible as a high school player. His slider took a jump from fringy-to-average in the summer to consistently above average to plus in the spring so the main concerns at draft time were that he was only 6-foot-1, didn't use a changeup much and that hard fastball didn't have conventional bat-missing shape. It was a slight surprise when the Twins took him 26th overall in the 2021 draft and Minnesota traded him as the headliner to the Reds in the Sonny Gray deal after two pro appearances.
Petty's fastball shape now is as an effective sinker that plays above average and his slider has become a consistent plus pitch. His changeup is just OK, but usable and there is some Chris Archer to his profile as a power pitcher. He might throw more sliders than heaters.
71. Sal Stewart, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Improved defensive third baseman who has always had plus raw power and above-average feel to hit
Stewart was a well-known high school underclassmen in South Florida who committed early to Vanderbilt. As scouts started bearing down, the main concern was whether he could stay at third base long term, because he'd likely slide over to first base if he couldn't and teams typically don't pay right-handed-hitting first baseman out of high school. The Reds were one of the teams who believed he could stay at third and took him 32nd overall in the 2022 draft.
Stewart got to High-A as a teeanger last season, hitting .275 with 12 home runs and a .396 OBP while drawing more walks than strikeouts. He could use a little more loft in his swing, but I wouldn't want him to get so steep in the zone that it affects how good of a hitter he is now.
72. Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets
Age: 22 | Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Type: Some of the best tools in the minors, but still swings too much and just tore his ACL
Mauricio has been a prospect for a long time and made his big league debut last summer, making it seemingly sure this would be his last appearance on a list ... until he tore his ACL in winter ball and it now seems likely he'll be on this list one more time next winter. He is tooled up, with plus bat-to-ball ability, plus-plus raw power, a plus arm and actions that belong at shortstop. He has gotten bigger in the past few seasons so he's now a below-average runner and more of an average defender at shortstop.
The big issue is still that Mauricio swings way too much, but he's continuing to improve. His 2022 swing rate was 55% and he reduced it to 50% in 2023 (league average is around 46%). His chase rate (swinging at pitches out of the zone) was 40% in 2022, then 36% in 2023, with the league average around 26%. Getting those figures closer to league average would help him get to more power in games as he would be swinging at pitches he can drive. His launch angle also is lower than ideal for the amount of power he has. Mauricio hit 26 and 25 homers the past two seasons in the upper minors, but there's potential for more than 30 in the big leagues if it all comes together.
Some advised me to move Mauricio down on this list due to missing most or all of the 2024 season, but I think he fits ahead of Rushing and Melton (two and three spots lower), as he will still get to the big leagues first and all three have an All-Star ceiling with some questions about if they'll get there.
73. Leodalis De Vries, SS, San Diego Padres
Age: 17 | Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Type: The best player in last month's international signing group is 17 years old with plus tools across the board and more feel than you'd expect
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De Vries has been widely seen as the best player in this international class for a few years. The track record of that sort of prospect is very good, though not perfect. He's a 6-foot-2, 185-pound switch-hitting shortstop with four plus tools and more of an average-or-so projection for his defense at shortstop. Sometimes with prospects who have spent this much time at the top of their class, scouts find it difficult to evaluate their soft skills (raw power translating into game, pitch selection against pro stuff, in-game defensive actions, etc.) because these players are often training for workouts. Finding pitchers of similar quality and age to hit against is also essentially impossible, so they're beating up on low-to-mid-80s pitchers with little command in their age group or facing fringy pro pitchers who are in their early 20s.
Early returns from San Diego suggest that De Vries' in-game power and pitch selection against pro-level stuff are even better than the franchise expected -- and this is the org that Ethan Salas just shot through to Double-A right after he turned 17 years old. De Vries' upside is among the most exciting on the list - .280 with a strong walk rate, 25 homers and real speed on the bases, while playing shortstop. This is about as aggressive as I've ever been with an international teenager who hasn't played a pro game yet, as putting Jasson Dominguez 40th on the 2021 list is the only time I've put such a prospect higher than this.
74. Jacob Melton, CF, Houston Astros
Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 23 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Power/speed sleeper in the 2022 draft has turned the corner into likely good big leaguer
Melton was a secondary pick to click in the 2022 draft who was No. 26 in my final pre-draft rankings, but he lasted until the 64th pick and signed for a bit below slot. The concerns were clear when he came out of Oregon State: His swing needed work, he didn't face top-notch competition and he might not be a center fielder. He's still iffy in center field despite plus speed but his plus raw power is showing up in games (23 homers in 2023), his speed is showing up on the bases (46 stolen bases) and he's hitting enough to let it all work (.245/.334/.467 line).
I think a median projection is something like Josh Reddick (a lefty, power-over-hit corner outfielder with some defensive value), who posted 20 career WAR while never stealing more than 11 bases in a season.
75. Dalton Rushing, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 22 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: A maybe-catcher with average-ish tools but good feel to hit and a great eye
Rushing was a late-rising prospect out of Louisville in the 2022 draft who showed a strong hit/power/patience combo, but scouts had questions about his ability to catch with a move to first base as the backup plan. Some teams kicked his tires in the 20s and more in the 30s, but the Dodgers eventually took him 40th overall.
He immediately raked in pro ball, jumping onto the end of last year's Top 100 after 30 pro games. Rushing has continued to have excellent command of the strike zone, though the torrid power streak he had after signing has since cooled a bit.
If he can catch every day -- which is still a maybe but he should be at least acceptable behind the plate -- then he could be a top five-to-seven catcher in the game. Otherwise, he'll be one of the nice-to-have solid hitters with no real position that you tend to find in this range of the list.
76. Noble Meyer, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 19 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Best prep arm in the 2023 draft class has a plus-plus breaking ball and has been into the upper-90s with all the traits you could want
Meyer wasn't especially well known as a high school underclassman, but announced himself loudly on the summer showcase circuit as a pitcher who belonged in the top tier of prep arms in the 2023 class, if not the top. In the spring, he solidified his place at the top with upper-90s velocity, a plus-plus breaking ball and a solid performance in front of triple-digit numbers of scouts at the NHSI tournament in North Carolina. The Marlins took Meyer with the No. 10 overall pick in a draft where the next prep pitcher didn't go until the No. 33 pick.
Meyer's fastball shape is more good than great and he has relied on his breaking ball too much at times while rarely using his changeup. But those are pretty typical knocks on heralded high school righties, and Meyer seems to have the other elements -- like delivery and ability to repeat it -- to imagine him shooting up this list if things go well in the next year.
77. Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Ridiculous plus-plus splitter is the headliner with above-average fastball -- and he's probably a starter
Waldrep appeared at some summer events as a high school player but was more a good Division-1 projection type with some effort to his delivery than a true pro prospect. He went to Southern Miss and his stuff spiked, then he transferred to Florida for his draft year.
It was sometimes maddening to watch the pitch calls from the Florida coaching staff as Waldrep's top-of-the-charts splitter would go unused for innings and he'd throw too many breaking balls, so his stats may be underselling who he was but he still racked up 156 strikeouts in 101⅔ innings. I call Waldrep's splitter a knuckle splitter because he holds it deep into his fingers, it doesn't spin much, and it comes out a little differently every time; here's a few from the same start.
Waldrep went to the Braves at the 24th overall pick last summer and was fantastic, making it to Triple-A (with some playoff callup rumors) with this line: 29⅓ innings, 36 baserunners, 41 strikeouts. He'll always have some trouble commanding his splitter so there's some variance to his outcomes on any given day, but he commands a plus slider well and just needs one more notch of fastball command to be able to turn over a big league lineup, which he might get the chance to do in 20⅔24.
78. Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Long-heralded potential ace who hasn't added command, but the upside is still there
Abel was well known early in his high school career because he was big, athletic and the first pitcher in his class to reach the mid-90s in his class while attending national events to compete against older high school prospects. That long summer track record and data from working out at a facility was helpful to creating a clear picture in a 2020 draft class when there was less to draw from for other prospects.
Abel has posted double-digit K/9 rates at every level since the Phillies took him No. 15 overall, making an appearance at Triple-A in 2023 but has also walked between four and six batters per nine innings. His fastball command is getting there, but his feel for locating his three offspeed pitches (all with plus potential like his heater) is well below average.
It could click at any point and he could be near the top of this list like teammate Andrew Painter, but the current en vogue way to find a front-line starter is to manufacture the stuff since command is harder to teach so Abel is more of a fit for traditional-minded scouts rather than the new age of evaluators.
79. Brayan Rocchio, SS, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 23 | Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Type: A good-not-great everyday shortstop who is big league ready
Rocchio is a classic example of what the Guardians have done well in amateur markets, specifically internationally, in the wake of the success of Jose Ramirez's career. They focus on compact-framed up-the-middle defenders who can hit -- especially switch-hitters -- but don't usually have big raw tools. This type of player isn't usually highly valued at age 16 (Rocchio signed for $125,000 out of Venezuela) but if the hit tool translates to pro ball and they continue playing up the middle, that type of player automatically has prospect value, with some chance for a moonshot outcome like Ramirez.
Rocchio's size (5-foot-10), speed (average), and power (45-grade, or 12-15 homers at maturity) are pretty ordinary, but he's a switch-hitter who will post above-average on-base percentages and be a solid-average defender at shortstop with some power and some baserunning value (25 steals in 2023). That adds up to an everyday player and Rocchio made his big league debut last summer.
80. Ryan Clifford, RF, New York Mets
Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: Precocious raw power, enough hitability to get to it in games -- but limited defensive value
Clifford was the first player to pop in the 2022 prep class, ranked first by the services that comprehensively rank players when they're freshmen and sophomores in high school. That was mostly because he just got strong before other players did, but Clifford has always been a standout offensive performer with a good left-handed swing. He looked like a second- or third-rounder in showcase events the summer before his draft spring, but was a below-average runner with risk of a move to first base and was old for his draft class. I saw him a few times facing Division-I type arms from other academy high schools that spring and started to worry that Clifford might have some trouble with pitchers who throw in the mid-90s.
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The industry largely also worried about these things, which is why he was still on the board in the 11th round when Houston gave him $1.25 million, late-second-round money. Clifford performed better than I was expecting in pro ball, posting a .260/.382/.466 line with 24 homers in 140 professional games. He and Drew Gilbert, ranked higher on this list, were the Mets' return for a heavily subsidized Justin Verlander at last year's trade deadline. Clifford split time between right field, left field, and first base last season for both the Mets and Astros, and given his plus arm he's playable at all three spots.
Clifford's median projection would be a very good, primary part of a platoon who hits .250 with some walks and 20-25 homers but limited defensive value -- like the average Joc Pederson season. If things really click, Clifford could post above-average OBPs, hit 30 homers annually and be a middle-of-the-lineup force who just might be a factor for the big league team late in 2024 and thus (looks at Mets fans, winces) Pete Alonso's potential replacement in 2025.
81. Chase Hampton, RHP, New York Yankees
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Power fastball/breakers combination and might have enough command to be a midrotation starter
Hampton flew under the radar in the 2022 MLB draft. I personally scouted one of his last appearances for Texas Tech before the draft at a regional at Georgia Southern and he flashed above-average stuff with a varied arsenal, but his command and delivery were just OK. He then went 190th overall as a sixth-round pick of the Yankees for a $500,000 bonus.
The Yankees scouts sitting near me at that start clearly saw more, and they were right. Hampton opened his pro career in 2023 by throwing 106⅔ innings across High-A and Double-A, striking out 145 and only walking 37. See the above Will Warren blurb (No. 69) for the litany of names of this type that the Yankees have discovered at this juncture of the draft. Hampton now has a shot to be a big league starter late in 2024 because his raw stuff and command both ticked up a notch after signing.
82. Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees
Age: 24 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Lefty-hitting former first-rounder out of a West Coast college who is set to be the Yankees' primary catcher in 2024
Wells has been a pretty similar prospect dating to his high school underclass days through debuting in Yankee Stadium. He's always been a decent defender behind the plate, improving to around average in recent years, but with a below-average arm that makes him vulnerable in the running game -- which his caught-stealing numbers (13% CS on 118 attempts in 2023) reflect.
Wells has also been a good hitter with a patient approach and 20-plus homer upside for awhile, but his signing bonus price wasn't met out of high school due to the first-base risk. He then went 28th overall out of Arizona after raking in college and improving a bit behind the plate.
83. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 23 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Lefty-hitting former second-rounder out of a West Coast college is set to be the Guardians' primary first baseman in 2024
Manzardo was a late riser in the 2021 draft out of Washington State. I noticed his numbers stood out in the middle of the spring with scouts giving positive reports that he could go somewhere in the first five rounds, then I started hearing his name in the third-round area as the regular season wrapped up before finally hearing that he wouldn't last to the third round because of his performance during private workouts. He went No. 63 overall to the Rays, fitting their belief to not avoid taking a first baseman with a premium pick (see the Xavier Isaac comment at No. 62 on this list).
He was traded to Cleveland in a deadline deal for Aaron Civale as the Guardians traded the thing they do best (building starting pitching depth) and the Rays traded the thing they do best (producing good-not-great infielders who end up clogging their 40-man roster). This and the trade of Luke Raley creates more space all over the lineup for Tampa Bay's infield depth, which includes (deep breath) Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda, Jose Caballero, Brandon Lowe, Richie Palacios, Osleivis Basabe, Taylor Walls and Junior Caminero (and a few more in the upper minors), alongside stalwarts Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz -- while giving Manzardo a clearer path in Cleveland's less-crowded depth chart.
The sales pitch on Manzardo is he has above-average feel to hit, pitch selection, raw power and can get to that power in games, so his well-rounded, quick-moving litany of 55-to-60-grade offensive abilities from a left-handed hitter allows him to be OK with a limited upside. He has a good shot to post a number of 1.5-to-2.5 WAR seasons, starting with 2024, maybe something like the overall value of Nathaniel Lowe, another first baseman the Rays traded (because of a similar infield situation) to an AL rival.
84. Edwin Arroyo, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 20 | Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Type: Switch-hitting shortstop with above-average power/speed combo reached Double-A as he was turning 20 years old
Arroyo was a draft-model favorite in the 2021 draft because he was a 17-year-old prep shortstop with above-average power potential. He lasted until the second round (48th overall) due to questions about his hit tool and if he was a true shortstop defensively in a deep prep class. Arroyo is close to 50/50 on being a shortstop (or moving to second base) and his pitch selection holds back his innate ability to put the bat on the ball while his standout tool is getting to his raw power in games.
I have a feeling he will continue to get pushed through the system and will always be a couple years young for each level (somewhat common for advanced middle infielders) so we won't truly know how he utilizes his tools until he's in the big leagues, which is looking like it'll happen in 2025. A solid long-term outcome would be something like former MLB shortstop Didi Gregorius.
85. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: One of the world's best in his age group for years, Cartaya had a down season but still looks like a long-term starter
Cartaya was No. 22 on last year's list and has been near the top of his international signing class back to when he and Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez both signed for over $2 million out of Venezuela. Cartaya had a bad year in 2023, hitting .189/.278/.379 with 19 homers as a 21-year-old in Double-A. His .216 BABIP helps explain that there was some bad luck here, but some of his underlying offensive indicators were also concerning. His contact-oriented stats were just barely down, as were his in-game loft figures, while his in-game power was down a full notch.
He's still a solid-average defensive catcher with an easy plus arm and it is somewhat common for catching prospects to have a down year mixed in an otherwise clean resume, so I'm not selling all my Cartaya stock. I have him as a .240 to .250 hitter with a solid approach, 15-20 homers and solid defense; that's still a starter and a pretty good one.
86. Nick Frasso, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 25 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Late-blooming mid-major college draftee is ready for the big leagues
The Blue Jays took Frasso out of Loyola Marymount in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB draft as a long-levered 6-foot-5 righty with some effort and relief risk but above-average stuff. He briefly debuted in 2021, then had an internal brace surgery on his elbow. He came back throwing even harder (sitting 94-98 mph) in 2022 and was traded to the Dodgers in the Mitch White deal.
Frasso settled at 93-96 mph with above-average command, along with an above-average slider and changeup. He is yet another of the late bloomers or unexpected risers to come out of the Dodgers' pitching factory who should all be showing up in the majors during the 2024 season. There might have been a dozen future major leaguers in an incredible group pitched together in Double-A in 2023.
87. Andy Pages, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 23 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Plus power, patience and arm strength in a classic right-field profile
Pages got on the prospect radar after his loud 2018 pro debut, hitting 10 homers in 52 games as a 17-year-old, then he got into the Top 100 conversation when he hit 19 homers in 63 games in 2019. The winter after that season, Pages was included in a package to the Angels for Luis Rengifo but the deal fell through based on how the concurrent Mookie Betts trade ended up.
That was good news for the Dodgers as Pages jumped to High-A in 2021 and hit 31 homers, then 26 homers in Double-A in 2022, but played only 34 games in 2023 because of a June shoulder surgery but should be back at full strength in 2024 and open the season at Triple-A. He doesn't have massive raw power, but enough to hit 25 homers because of how good he is at getting to his power in games, along with solid pitch selection that juices his OBP.
88. Dylan Lesko, RHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: 80-grade changeup, above-average fastball and curveball with spotty command in pro debut
Lesko got on the national prospect radar as a freshman in high school when he was dominating tournaments in the low-90s with a nasty plus changeup, posting gaudy numbers against overmatched hitters. Most notably, Lesko was doing it with a changeup and he wasn't a big-and-strong type: He was tall, lanky and projectable on top of having a good delivery. He held serve as the top arm in what turned out to be a loaded 2022 prep pitching class (Noah Schultz and Robby Snelling are on this Top 100, but a few more should join them soon) and went 15th overall to the Padres even after needing Tommy John surgery in the spring before the draft. Lesko returned to the mound in 2023 in his pro debut -- his stuff was good but his command wasn't all the way back, as is to be expected. This season will tell us more about his trajectory, but before blowing out, Lesko was one of the best prep pitching prospects in the past couple of decades, with the best single amateur pitch I've ever seen. He's even learned a new slider that's easier to land than his big-breaking curveball and it looks good so far in bullpens. His ceiling is very high.
89. Luis Morales, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Signed for $3 million at age 20 after defecting from Cuba and took to pro ball even quicker than expected
The 6-foot-3 Morales was a decorated player in Cuba before defecting at a tournament in Mexico. He struck out 58 batters in 42⅓ innings in the top Cuban pro league, so scouts knew there was some usability of the stuff they saw in private workouts before he signed. He was into the upper-90s with rumors of triple digits and showed a potential plus curveball along with a usable changeup, but some scouts wondered if there was too much relief risk in his delivery and arm action to go much over $1 million.
Oakland's gamble has paid off so far, as he reached High-A in his first pro season, striking out 52 and walking 15 in 44 innings over four levels. His fastball sat 96-98 mph and his 81-85 mph two-plane breaker might have 70-grade potential. His changeup is already flashing solid average. Morales' command still needs to progress a bit more, but we're only 44 pro innings into his career -- the pieces are here for a midrotation-type pitcher.
90. Bryan Ramos, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Well-rounded third baseman who's a little above average at everything
Ramos has been performing well since he signed as a lower-profile international signing for $300,000 in the 2018 signing class. He has plus raw power that he's able to use in games pretty consistently, especially considering he has been young for every level he's played.
He's a deceptively solid-average runner with a solid-average glove at the hot corner. Ramos will turn 22 soon, and though he should play mostly in Triple-A in 2024, he could be a big league factor as soon as the second half if the need arises.
91. Joey Ortiz, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 25 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Big league-ready steady glove at shortstop with sneaky power and feel for contact
Ortiz (a 2019 fourth-round pick) now looks like the better of the two notable New Mexico State middle infielders on the 2019 club; the other was the 2020 seventh-overall pick Nick Gonzales, who is not even close to being on this list. Their college's home ballpark is such a bandbox that scouts and analysts have trouble knowing what will translate to pro baseball. In the fourth round with a clear shortstop fit and some feel for contact, it didn't really matter if Ortiz could really hit for close to average in-game power -- but it turns out he can, hitting 28 homers over the past two seasons (though it might be undercut at the big league level by a worse-than-average chase rate). Projections have him as a .260s hitter with 10-12 homers, a few stolen bases and real defensive value, which is also about what I have, but it could be a tick better if he was a little more selective. That isn't an All-Star, but he's a good everyday player; he'll be looking for a big league role in 2024 given that Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias are on the team.
92. Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 23 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: One of the best pitching prospects in recent memory with top-of-the-scale raw stuff -- who has thrown 18⅓ innings in two seasons because of multiple injuries
Injured elite pitching prospects who are famous primarily because they throw hard -- Nate Pearson, Forrest Whitley and Sixto Sanchez come to mind -- have had a tough time in recent years. Espino was arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball as the 2022 season was beginning but made only four starts that year because of knee and shoulder issues. He was expected to bounce back fully healthy in 2023 before a shoulder issue in spring training delayed his start to the season -- he never pitched in a pro game in 2023 due to surgery in May. It's hoped that he will be back on a mound sometime this summer. While clubs aren't really scared of elbow surgeries, the path to coming back where a pitcher left off after shoulder surgery is much more checkered, with recent examples like Sanchez and Brendan McKay, though they both had other injuries, as well.
I could have placed Espino much lower than this to hedge for the uncertainty. What that ignores is that Espino is a tireless worker who continually improved even with big expectations. He hit 100 mph as a junior in high school, he's exceptionally strong even among big league pitchers, and he has some of the best stuff anyone has ever seen. There's plenty of margin for error for him to carve out a solid career as a reliever and with the aforementioned lack of quality depth on the back-end of the Top 100, a small chance of a potential ace is worth a gamble at this point in the list.
93. Chase Dollander, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Power fastball/breaking ball type who can be a midrotation type if he continues progressing
I've seen videos of Dollander when he was a senior in high school and I can tell you he shouldn't have been on pro scouting radars. Then a solid mid-level Division-1 recruit, he looks completely different than he did two years later after he transferred from Georgia Southern to Tennessee. While a Volunteer for two seasons, Dollander torched the SEC, striking out 228 in 168 innings while walking only 43.
In his draft spring, I spotted a delivery issue and his stuff was a little more hittable -- his locations were a little worse, and he was facing hitters hunting certain pitches for the first time. The core things were still there: a plus mid-90s fastball that works at the top of the zone, a plus-flashing slider and a curveball and changeup that flashed above average to go with good control and starter command upside.
As with most amateur power pitchers, his command execution comes and goes a bit, but the components are here to project average command. Now we'll see if he can make some subtle tweaks and continue progressing in pro ball before having to tackle Coors Field.
94. Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 22 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Type: 80-grade runner, 80-grade baserunner, 70-grade defender, 60-grade hitter with a great approach - but 40-grade raw power and a bit less in games.
Bradfield has been the same guy since his freshman year in high school, playing with Mark Vientos and Triston Casas in front of lots of scouts -- that's taken him all over the summer prep circuit, to three standout years for Vanderbilt, to going 17th overall to the Orioles. As a senior in high school, there was interest in the second or third round but teams balked at his very low exit velos as a 17-year-old. Power really isn't a part of Bradfield's game but scouts don't want to take an outlier if they don't have to and speed wasn't really a part of the big league game at that point; chasing exit velo and lifting everything was.
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By the time Bradfield was eligible again, the big league rules were being changed to encourage speed and he was the exact player these rules would benefit the most. His max EV after signing (106.7 mph) is better than 10 qualified big league hitters, so he is no longer an outlier, just a guy with (a number of) strengths and (one) weakness. I think the most important element of Bradfield's game is his pitch selection. Playing mostly in both A-Ball levels after signing, he drew 26 walks and 16 strikeouts. Bradfield's approach of slapping line drives over the infielder's heads, wearing out the gaps and mixing in bunts simply does not work if he chases a lot. His baserunning is irrelevant if he isn't on base.
The fact that he's a plus hitter with at least plus pitch selection means this whole thing can work and even if it somehow doesn't, he's the best true reserve outfielder in baseball when guys whose only average tool is running are still making playoff rosters. And besides: The Orioles have been really good at developing hitters, even if they haven't had one like this in the system yet.
95. Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers
Age: 19 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Another of my pre-draft picks to click along the lines of Drew Gilbert and Tyler Black
McGonigle was seen as one of the better pure bats in the class leading into his summer showcase season and he raked at every event. That said, he ended up lower on others' lists than mine because he's a fringy runner who isn't a true shortstop and who projects for average power -- that's three marks against a high school position player for most teams. Well, if you've read the Gilbert and Black blurbs, you can see where this is headed. McGonigle was 21st on my draft board in a loaded class, especially in prep position players for the back half of the first round. He went 37th overall to the Tigers for a slightly overslot $2.85 million.
I knew McGonigle could hit and he was polished, but I was surprised that in the 21 games he played after signing, he drew 18 walks to just 10 strikeouts while stealing eight bases. He's still just a teenager for the whole 2024 season -- I think long term McGonigle will be a second baseman with a plus hit tool, plus pitch selection and OBP, and 15-20 homers with some, but not a lot, of baserunning and defensive value. It isn't a huge upside, but I think his chances of reaching it are much better than the rest of the industry.
96. Bryce Eldridge, 1B, San Francisco Giants
Age: 19 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: A 6-foot-7 first baseman with 70-grade power and a surprising amount of hitability
Eldridge stood out to me as one of two underclassmen on the Carolinas/Virginia team at the East Coast Pro showcase in summer 2021. The event featured 2022 first-round picks like Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones and Cam Collier, but the Carolinas team had three underclassman who batted lefty and I would set up down the third- base side just to watch them, even though I didn't need to have an opinion on them for two years. Those two hitters were Walker Jenkins (fifth overall pick in the 2023 draft, 13th on this list) and Eldridge (16th overall pick). Ryan Clifford (80th on this list) was the 2022 prospect who also batted left-handed in that lineup -- I bet Xavier Issac would've as well if he was healthy at the time.
At this event, Eldridge, a 6-foot-7 16-year-old who I didn't previously know much about, hit a number of balls over 100 mph and then pitched in relief, hitting the mid-90s, mixing in an above-average-to-plus breaking ball. He kept doing stuff like that throughout the next summer and in the spring he hit a huge bomb when I went to see him and Jenkins on back-to-back days. For someone with such long arms, Eldridge has a unique ability to keep his arms flexed and get around to that inside fastball, so he has a rare scouting report for someone that tall: 70-grade power and at least a 45-grade bat. After signing, he hit six homers and drew 20 walks in 31 pro games. He's limited to first base due to his size and speed, but here's another rare quality: If hitting doesn't work out, he was a second-round caliber prospect on the mound with an above-average fastball/slider combo and pretty solid command. He might never get on a mound in pro ball, but it helps me feel better about the inherent risk of a long-levered high school first baseman (see the Isaac comment above about the demographic) knowing it'd be an option.
97. Brock Wilken, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: An accomplished collegiate power bat -- he might not be a third baseman, but he's a homer machine
Wilken joins Pete Alonso and likely 2025 first-rounder Ethan Petry (South Carolina) in a cohort of Central Florida right-handed power hitters who were known prospects out of high school without enough juice to convince teams to meet their (in retrospect) pretty reasonable prices to buy them out of college. Wilken has always been a bit of a stretch as a third baseman but that skill set can sometimes take time to jell, so I'll give the 6-foot-4, 235-pound, 21-year-old another season or two before saying he should slide over to first base full time. Wilken's longer levers give him some limitations in making contact and he's a below-average runner -- but now we get to the fun part. He has plus pitch selection, plus-plus raw power and a strong ability to get to that power in games. Wilken hit 71 homers in three seasons at Wake Forest, 11 more in 68 games on the Cape (with wood bats), then five more after turning pro as the 18th overall pick last summer. He finished his debut in Double-A and drew 33 walks to 47 strikeouts in his debut, raising his pre-draft stock and looking like he could be on the fast track at this rate.
98. Thomas Harrington, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Later-blooming third/fourth starter type with above-average stuff and command
Harrington got on the national radar a few months before his draft spring at Campbell (low-key becoming a pro pitching factory, by the way) and lived up to those expectations of being a late-first-early second-round type when he went 36th overall to the Pirates.
Harrington doesn't have overwhelming stuff -- average velocity at 92-94 mph and three offspeed pitches that are above average but not plus -- and he's a pretty ordinary 6-foot-2, but the whole package is quite effective, with some shockingly good results in the sports science realm on top of it. That translated to striking out 146 times to just 41 walks in his pro debut, which might put him on the fast track to the big leagues.
99. Christian Scott, RHP, New York Mets
Age: 24 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: A very late bloomer who is now improbably the best pitching prospect from the 2019-2021 Gators pitching staff
Scott was a bit of an afterthought in that era of the Florida program, starting four games and relieving 50 over two-plus seasons, deferring to Hunter Barco, Tommy Mace, Brandon Sproat, and Jack Leftwich. To be fair, I also thought all four of those pitchers were better than Scott, so it made sense to use him as a swingman; the main critique on Scott is that he couldn't hold his stuff late into games. After going in the fifth round in 2021, Scott still didn't eclipse 60 innings in a season until 2023; he finished the season in Double-A and also posted his best per inning numbers.
His fastball sits 93-96 mph with bat-missing ride and he commands it at a big league level, helping make his solid-average slider and above-average changeup come out when he's ahead in the count. Scott should be a big league factor in 2024 and could be a third or fourth starter in short order.
100. Druw Jones, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: An incredibly talented player who has had a terrible time in pro ball -- but I'm still on board
Jones, the son of Andruw, was getting hype as a freshman in high school in Georgia, yes, because of his father, but also because he was one of the best players in his class at that point in the process. He grew into huge physical tools -- a 70-grade runner and 70-grade defender in center field with a 70-grade arm (and some scouts hung 80s on each of those) -- and starred on the showcase circuit the summer before he was draft eligible.
As a lanky 6-foot-4, his longer limbs had the potential to create contact issues, but Jones had above-average bat speed and the ability to fold himself up to avoid those issues. His raw power was already around major league average and clearly going to become at least plus. He was the consensus best prospect in the draft and went second overall to Arizona, behind the current top prospect in baseball, Jackson Holliday.
If you don't follow the prospect game closely, you might be wondering what happened to create a 99-place gap between these two in 18 months. First, Jones hurt his shoulder a few days after signing his deal in 2022, before playing in a pro game. Surgery for that injury meant his debut was pushed to 2023, then his 2023 season was put on pause after 10 games by a quad injury that knocked him out for almost two months. After returning, he hit .262/.378/.374. That doesn't live up to expectations some might have for him from reading some headlines, but he was (and still is) an elite runner, defender and thrower who has big offensive potential -- but yes, it might take a little time to come together in a pro environment.
Now he can toss 2023 into the trash can and come back for his first full, healthy season and we'll see how far he is from actualizing his offensive upside. Comparing him to Holliday makes you think Jones has been awful (he hasn't!), but taking a step back and judging him as though he was a previously unknown prospect (good-enough contact, solid approach, plus power potential, plus speed, plus defense in center, still growing into his frame), plenty of scouts would be excited enough to push to put him on the Top 100 to get ahead of the hype. Plenty of others advised me to leave him out of the 50 FV tier completely. I'll split the difference and put him on the end of the list, thinking we'll get some better news in 2024.
