Friday Musings - Post- Draft Lottery Hangover and Rule 5 Results/Possible Insights Into Guardians' Thinking

THE HISTORIC LOTTERY

Ahh, the essence of a lottery. Long odds against you, prize at the end is (relatively) huge, no real expectations but an understanding up front that if you win it is a historic event and, potentially, franchise-altering, in a positive way.

The Guardians had such a historic windfall in winning the #1 overall selection in the 2024 draft, as I alluded to before, a Lebron year type windfall, that it has to be a positive.

Here are some of the positives:

Our draft budget for 2024 just went up about $5 million.

The amount that we could go over our budget and not lose our 2025 1st round pick went up by $250,000 (5% of $5 million), which adds even more cash.

Most teams go under the slot value significantly with these top picks. It is not out of the question that the Guardians could sign their 1st rd. pick for under slot and save $500,000 for picks later in the draft AND sign the best available player at #1.

Having the 1st overall pick improves our ability to draft for need as there shouldn't be that much difference in ability of the first few players. Normally a team should draft the best available player instead of the best available player that fills a gap in their system. At #1 overall those two goals coalesce.

We shouldn't forget that having a competitive balance A pick and drafting 10th overall in the rest of the draft ALSO add to the quality of our draft. Last year we drafted 24th. Imagine, in each round, having 14 more of the best available players in that round that you can choose from. If you want an example, in 2023 if we had just picked ONE slot better we would have gotten a much better prospect in Colt Emerson. If Atlanta, who picked one spot after us, had been one spot lower they might not have gotten Hurston Waldrep, who immediately turned into one of the top 100 prospects in baseball.

Here are my other thoughts on this windfall:

People who say Dolan is cheap and won't spend the money associated with this draft and having the #1 overall pick are likely way wrong. History (the last 2 drafts, at least) tell me that the Guardians go OVER their draft budget, almost all the way to the last dollar over before they would lose a 1st round pick the following year. So, folks, stop worrying.

The Dolan haters who say that Dolan will just trade the pick to save money are wrong because this pick cannot be sold or traded.

No one has suggested this but, for me, this draft windfall DOES raise the possibility that the Guardians may trade their Competitive Balance "A" pick, which is the 35th pick in the 2024 draft. That WOULD be a cheap move unless it was used to get a great player in lieu of losing a good prospect in that same trade (bird in the hand worth more than ONE in the bush, so to speak)

The other obvious negative outcome that might occur is that the Guardians could go way under slot with the 1st round pick to save money. That might make some sense as this is supposed to be a weak draft. They could then use the savings to draft and sign tough-to-sign top talents in later rounds who they normally couldn't afford. Or, most negatively, they could just pocket some of all of that under slot savings.

So, if you know me, you know there is one final elephant in my room. In my opinion the last two drafts, outside of the apparently successful gamble on an injured, same-side-challenged, DeLauter, have been unmitigated disasters. While injuries have hurt initial returns from these drafts, the problem with both is the concept: draft LH slap hitters with good strike zone control. In almost every case they drafted for that desire, eschewing the best available players at that point. And the results have simply been disastrous. The prime example is drafting Ralphy Velasquez instead of the more obvious choice of Hurston Waldrep. The latter is already a top 100 prospect and could well be in the majors with ATL in 2024. But there are many other examples: slap hitters Joe Lampe, Nate Furman, Guy Lipscomb in 2022 whose failures were likely not considered when doubling down with CJ Kayfus, Cooper Ingle, Christian Knapczyk, Tommy Hawke and Alex Mooney in 2023. This, to me, is spitting in the face of baseball wisdom and of the struggles of the parent team as far as how lack of power hurt this team in 2023, to take a path no one else is taking. This is a sign of the hubris of the FO and, especially, the amateur scouting department.

RULE 5 RESULTS

The Rule 5 came and went and here are my general observations and specific ones about the Guardians

General Thoughts

The ML phase looked a little light this year, even though, in the days before the draft, there was only 1 team (Tampa Bay) who had a full 40-man roster and there were 13 teams with 3 or more openings on their 40-man roster.

As usual, the draft focused heavily on pitchers as, of the 10 players selected, 8 were pitchers, with one SS/Util INF and one 1B/3B (Dreyvison De Los Santos) selected. Pitchers, of course, have more flexibility as they can act as relievers or starters.

4 of the 10 players selected were ranked in their team's top 30 prospects at the time of the Rule 5 with De Los Santos being the highest as Arizona's #5.
Four of the 8 pitchers selected were among the top ones available for this draft, according to the list provided by MLB.

Thoughts Related to the Guardians

Although many informed prospect geeks among Guardians fans (me included) were hoping the Guardians went for a pitcher they did not.

Instead, the Guardians drafted into a position of excess, 1B/3B where we already have Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Manzardo and the overflow from the MIF prospects, not to mention prospect Jhonkensy Noel and even the infamous AAAA player, Alfonso Rivas. In addition, if the thought is to play De Los Santos at DH, that has been a position where the starters rest instead of taking a whole day off in addition to it being held for Manzardo when he is ready. As far as his potential as a hitter, however, De Los Santos is top shelf in terms of his potential if we can find a way to keep him on the roster this year. More about him and how his presence would impact the 26 man roster this year in a later blog post.

The Guardians did not lose anyone in the ML portion of the Rule 5 which is a good thing. I think this was partially due to the lack of activity, in general, in the ML portion. Looking at who was selected, there was no way that any of the available Guardians prospects stacked up against the players who were selected in terms of current ability and the ability to stick on a 26-man roster next spring. For example, Dayan Frias is a good prospect but Nazim Nunez is a much more polished version of Frias. Ditto for Ethan Hankns & Lenny Torres, Jr. compared to the pitchers selected. As I said before the draft, there was a wealth of available pitchers which helped the Guardians not lose anyone in the major league phase. Catchers were not targeted which also aided the Guardians in keeping Bryan Lavastida.

Let's take a look at the players the Guardians gained and lost in the minor league phase:

Gained:

Tyler Brown - RHP - Relief pitcher who succeeded at AA and tasted a little AAA this year. There is a lot to like in this kid and he stands an excellent chance to start the year in AAA, giving us another fringe relief prospect who could blossom and provide us injury replacement depth on the ML roster. It sounds like his FB velocity took a bump up when he moved to the bullpen. If our pitching gurus can help keep him on the step part of his learning curve, we might have a hidden gem in Brown.

Connor Gillispie - RHP - Gillispie, like Brown, has completed his necessary work in dominating AA in 2023 so should have a place on the Columbus pitching staff in 2024. He worked both as a starter and reliever in 2023. I love his pitching line as, in 2023 he made 14 starts, 11 relief appearances, had 2 complete games, 1 shutout and 2 saves. That is a pretty versatile stat line at a high level for a guy available in the minor league Rule 5. I am really excited to see Gillispie pitch in 2024.

John Doxaxis - LHP - Doxaxis is the typical minor league portion Rule 5 pickup. For example, Bradley Hanner, our MiLB R5 pick from last year was only mediocre in A+ ball in 2022 but blossomed in AA ball and held his own in the AFL in 2023. Hanner is not a priority prospect for the Guardians but should move up to AAA in 2024, putting himself only 1 step from the majors. Doxaxis will likely start 2024 in Akron and we will see if the Guardians' pitching doctors can fix what is wrong with his delivery and get the kind of result improvement they got from Hanner. You can never have too many pitching prospects, especially LH pitching prospects.

Lost

Bryce Ball 1B - Ball looks like a professional baseball first baseman. He is big, hits for some power and is good around the first base bag. But he was picked up as a MiLB free agent during the season by Akron. He might turn into a good MLB player given his physical and hitting tools but, as this point, he just seems like a career minor leaguer.

Samuel Vazquez - RHP - Vazquez pitched in Lynchburg as a 23 year old in 2023. He possesses a huge fastball, topping 100 mph. He is the typical hard-throwing lottery ticket that a team hopes their pitching instructors can get consistency, control and command out of a guy who possesses a plus plus fastball like Vazquez does. We may look back at this in years to come and kick ourselves over this loss but I am pretty confident that that won't be the case. If it is, more power to the Nationals pitching development people.

Thomas Ponticelli - RHP - Ponticelli was the typical innings eating Swiss army knife during his career with the Guardians. He was like the minor league version of Josh Tomlin but his stuff just never put him over the top. As an organizational guy at the top of a team's minor league chain he fills an important role and may, if things click, get some ML time in the future. Still, looking at both Brown and Gillispie, I like their chances more than I like Ponticelli's so I am willing to accept the risk of a team unlocking Ponticelli's potential.

Rule 5 Summary:

I think the Guardians did well in the Rule 5. They didn't lose anyone in the ML phase and gained a very interesting prospect with power potential, albeit at a position where we don't have a need. In the minor league portion I think we got back more potential than we lost which is a good thing.

Columbus Reserve List

Something that is rarely mentioned is that the Rule 5 draft revolves around the players protected and not protected on a teams AAA reserve list. The Guardians started the Rule 5 with 35 players on their AAA reserve list, as indicated by the announcer at the beginning of the minor league portion. Although that list is not public, knowing which Rule 5 eligible players are on that list would be insightful to see who the organization thinks is their top Rule 5-eligible prospects are who they couldn't protect on their ML roster. So here is my best guess. Note that I have included all their minor league FA signings (all are eligible for the ML Rule 5) and the guys they actually picked in the minor league Rule 5 who all have to be added to the Columbus reserve list (thus the reason we only drafted 3 players). Note that none of the 3 players we lost in the minor league phase were on the Columbus reserve list, obviously. In the list below are guys that I guess are on this list but that I have no evidence for.

Pitchers (19): Barria, Bilious,Tyler Brown, Doxaxis, Enright, Connor Gillispie, Gose, Mikolajchak, Misiaszek, Oller, Scott, Burns,Torres, Jr., Hankins, Hanner, Jerson Ramirez, Wolf, LaBaut, Sabrowski,

Catchers (4): Lavastida, Eric Rodriguez, Micael Ramirez, Nelson Aranguren

Infielders (10): Raynel Delgado, Pries, Schneeman, Bracho, Juan Benjamin, Christian Cairo, Maick Collado, Jose Devers, Dayan Frias

Outfielders (5): Antunez, Burgos, Esteban Gonzalez, Alexfri Planez, Lexer Saduy

Again, a lot of this is speculation. Some of these players are on the Columbus roster right now, some of them appear here because they were in the AFL (guess you wouldn't be sending someone to the AFL if they weren't at least going to be on your AAA reserve list) and some are just my guesses.

Posted by Dennis at 11:03 AM

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Is this Dennis Nosco? He used to make a big deal about the Rule 5 draft every year.

I agree with his take on drafting a bunch of slap hitters in the last couple of drafts.

Rusty seems to think it's Nosco.
I also think so. The posts seems similar as I remember.

It is definitely " the king of Rule 5 " Dennis Nosco ! I have not been on a board with Dennis for about 10 years. Recently ran across him online.

Here's the link for Dennis' blog if anyone is interested:

https://ciperspective.blogspot.com/

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MLB to give top prospects four-day spring showcase in 2024

Jeff Passan, ESPN
Dec 13, 2023, 04:57 PM ET
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Major League Baseball will showcase the sport's best young players during a series of spring training games it's calling "Spring Breakout," the league announced Wednesday.

The event, scheduled to take place March 14-17, will pit an organization's best prospect group against another team's in a game that's part of a doubleheader with a regularly scheduled spring game. Although highly regarded prospects often participate in major league spring training games, rosters filled with the best minor league players from each team typically participate on the backfields at spring complexes.



Spring Breakout will bring the top-caliber players over to the big league field and look to leverage the opportunity to better market minor leaguers, an added point of emphasis for MLB since it started running the minor leagues in 2021. All 30 teams will participate in the event -- which will combine the game with in-person autograph sessions and other meet-the-prospect opportunities -- and the league could televise Spring Breakout games on MLB Network.


"Spring Breakout will provide a new opportunity to showcase the future stars of the game as they continue on their journey to the Major Leagues," MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said in a prepared statement. "Our fans will get unique opportunities to meet our best prospects, get autographs, and see the next generation of Major Leaguers up close. We are thrilled that Major League Baseball, Minor League Baseball and all of our Clubs are working closer than ever to grow the game and to shine a brighter light on our future All-Stars."

Farm directors surveyed by ESPN were generally optimistic about the event. While MLB teams have balked at allowing their best players to participate in the World Baseball Classic, the short window for Spring Breakout, along with the ability to keep players near spring facilities, sold them on the concept.

If the event does find success, the ability for it to grow in a second season is limitless. MLB could stage a tournament or turn it into a weeklong event. Already MLB is planning to increase its coverage of the minor leagues on its app and digitally.

So, what's new.

The minor league game will now be played on the stadium field instead of the back fields.

And who will be the players? A ball players? Anybody that has been to ST knows Major League starters only play a couple of innings and head for their tee time. The stadium games are played by mostly minor league AA & AAA invitees until the last week of ST.

I guess doubleheaders in the stadium are good for admissions and concessions. Other than that, no different than watching games on the back fields.

Gimmick.

it will be a grand total of one game for each team. It sounds like they want to field teams of all the top prospects from any level just to see them on the field. So Chourio who hasn't played full season ball could be in the outfield and Ralphy Velazquez behind the plate

Here’s Pipeline’s first full 2024 mock draft

December 15, 2023

1:00 AM UTC

Jim Callis

It’s not just the holiday season right now; it’s also sort of Draft season at MLB Pipeline, after we just unveiled our 2024 Draft Top 100 on Wednesday evening.

The Guardians won’t actually exercise the No. 1 overall selection for another seven months, but that doesn’t prevent us from having a full-blown case of Draft fever. So even though it’s way, way too early, we’ll take some mildly educated guesses and project the entire first round.

College hitters are by far the strength of the 2024 Draft class, and the first six picks below, and nine of the top 11 come from that demographic. There are several potential first-round college pitchers, though many have something to prove. Because the demand outweighs the supply, we pushed a few of those arms a bit higher than we ranked them.

1. Guardians: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 2)Kurtz has the most usable power in this class, which would fill the Guardians’ most glaring need.

2. Reds: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia (No. 1)The Reds could really use a pitcher but there isn’t one who merits going this high right now, so they’ll add to their embarrassment of infield riches with the Draft’s best pure hitter.

3. Rockies: Charlie Condon, OF/1B, Georgia (No. 4)Remember how good Matt Holliday was with the Rockies? Condon has that kind of upside.

4. Athletics: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 5)Landing the Draft’s top two-way talent would help spur interest in the A’s after some tough times.

5. White Sox: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 3)The White Sox could rebuild around a Bazzana/Colson Montgomery double-play combination.

6. Royals: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina (No. 6)Honeycutt has the best all-around tools in the college class and won’t last this long if he shows more consistency at the plate.

7. Cardinals: Josh Hartle, LHP, Wake Forest (No. 13)As a slam-dunk starter who shouldn’t need much time in the Minors, Hartle is the favorite to be the first pitcher selected.

8. Angels: Seaver King, OF/SS, Wake Forest (No. 9)The transfer from NCAA Division II Wingate (N.C.) offers a quality bat, well-above-average speed and defensive versatility.

9. Pirates: Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss. (No. 8)Our top-rated high school prospect, Griffin should be at least an average hitter and otherwise has plus or better tools across the board.

10. Nationals: Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State (No. 7)Known most for his slugging exploits, White is underappreciated for his hitting ability but probably winds up at first base in pro ball.

11. Tigers: Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern (No. 11)The only college player in this projection who doesn’t hail from a Power 5 conference, Sirota is a center fielder with 20-20 potential.

12. Red Sox: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 15)Smith has more spectacular stuff than Hartle and won’t last this long if he finds more strikes and consistency in the spring.

13. Giants: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 16)Burns has an untouchable slider and a fastball that reaches 102 mph but gets hit harder than it should. That’s four Wake Forest players in the top 13 selections, and right-hander Michael Massey gives the Demon Deacons a possible fifth first-rounder.

14. Cubs: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa (No. 17)No pitcher in this Draft has a higher ceiling than Brecht, a former Iowa wide receiver who has a Paul Skenes-esque fastball/slider combination but lacks polish.

15. Mariners: Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Texas A&M (No. 10)Montgomery’s stock is a bit volatile following a shaky fall after he transferred from Stanford, yet he fits the classic right-field profile with power from both sides of the plate and outstanding arm strength.

16. Marlins: P.J. Morlando, OF, Summerville (S.C.) HS (No. 14)The best all-around offensive player in the prep class would be a great fit for the offense-hungry Marlins.

17. Brewers: Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State (No. 26)Benge’s combination of bat-to-ball skills and high exit velocities ranks with among the very best in college and he’ll shoot up this list if his power develops as hoped this spring.

18. Rays: Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Louisiana State (No. 18)There are some evaluators who believe Hurd — a College World Series hero at LSU — could emerge as the best pitcher in this college crop by Draft Day.

19. Mets: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Jonesboro, Ark. (No. 20)Two years after taking Jett Williams at No. 14 overall, the Mets can grab the outfield version.

20. Blue Jays: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford (No. 12)The best sophomore-eligible collegian, Moore is an offensive-minded catcher who could go higher if he cleans up his defense.

21. Twins: Caleb Lomavita, C, California (No. 21)If Moore isn’t the first catcher drafted, that distinction likely will fall to Lomavita, who’s more advanced defensively.

22. Orioles: Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee (No. 22)The Orioles are on the prowl for pitching and would be fortunate to land Beam, whose polish stands out more than his steadily improving stuff.

23. Dodgers: Noah Franco, OF/LHP, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. (No. 23)Clubs seem to like the best two-way prospect among high schoolers a little more as an advanced hitter with power potential than as a projectable left-hander.

24. Braves: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz. (No. 19)One of the youngest players in the 2024 Draft after reclassifying from 2025, Caminiti is an athletic four-pitch lefty.

25. Padres: Caleb Bonemer, SS/3B, Okemos (Mich.) HS (No. 24)Bonemer features one of the quickest bats in the prep ranks and may be Michigan’s best high school prospect since Derek Jeter.

26. Yankees: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 25)Smith broke out in the Cape Cod League last summer and looks like a big league third baseman with his strong frame, power and plus arm.

27. Phillies: Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (No. 27)Jordan may have more bat speed than anyone in the Draft, and he’s a quality athlete who was recruited to play wide receiver by the Bulldogs.

28. Astros: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State (No. 28)Culpepper’s arrow is pointing up after he was the top hitter on the U.S. collegiate national team last summer.

29. D-backs: Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke (No. 29)After having bone chips removed from his elbow, Santucci once again looked like an athletic southpaw with the potential for three plus pitches this fall.

30. Rangers: Kevin Bazzell, C, Texas Tech (No. 47)Let’s wrap this up with a pick to click in Bazzell, a gifted hitter and underrated athlete who has the tools to make a successful move from third base to catcher.

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Baseball America ranks the top dozen:
1. Nick Kurtz
1B

2. JJ Wetherholt
2B

3. Travis Bazzana
2B

4. Jac Caglianone
1B

5. Mike Sirota
OF

6. Vance Honeycutt
OF

7. Chase Burns
RHP

8. Seaver King
SS

9. Braden Montgomery
OF

10. Tommy White
3B

11. Konnor Griffin
OF

12. PJ Morlando
OF

FRANCO ALEMAN

GUARDIANS ALL PROSPECT TEAM

JUSTIN LADA

DEC 17

Award season was a little delayed, but we’re getting them in before the end of the year.

Note: I had to take a few liberties at some positions where candidates were lighter than I would have in years past. Normally I would have used the qualifier that a player had to play most of his season in the minors, but for catcher and first base, that wasn’t really possible. But at pitcher, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams didn’t qualify due to how much time they spent in the majors, and there were deserving pitchers.

C: Bo Naylor: .253/.393/.498, .12 2B, 13 HR, 391 wOBA, 123 wRC+,

Normally, I would pick someone who played the majority of their games in the minors for this spot, but the catcher spot in the minors this year for Cleveland was bleak. Bryan Lavastida had a minor resurgence in the second half, but beyond that, it was a weak year for the catching group beyond some international prospects too young to consider for this.

1B: Kyle Manzardo: .233/.324/.535, 8 2B, 6 HR, .361 wOBA, 132 wRC+ (all with Cleveland)

Manzardo didn’t have the majority of his season’s at-bats in the Cleveland system, but like the catcher spot, first base was a rough spot throughout the organization. Manzardo had a nice tear at the end of the season power-wise and also hot well in the AFL. So this was an easy call.

2B: Juan Brito: .271/.377/.434, 31 2B, 14 HR, 7/15 B, .370 wOBA, 126 wRC+

At Lake County Brito looked solid, but at times wasn’t overly dominant or special. But he kicked it into gear a little more at Double-A and from the left side offensively, he produced. Defensively and as a right handed hitter, there were questions left to answer. But he was deserving here.

SS: Jose Devers: .252/.356/.398, 15 2B, 11 HR, 34/45 SB, .356 wOBA, 113 wRC+

Shortstop was another source of disappointment in the minors this year for Cleveland. But Devers showed a good glove at the position and came into some modest power at times. He had some really strong moments that stood out more than anyone in this position, even though Brayan Rocchio was solid but disappointing this year. But Devers showed some good flashes, albeit at Low-A.

3B: Dayan Frias: .260/.356/.426, 19 2B, 11 HR, 8/11 SB, .359 wOBA, 120 wRC+

There were some ups and downs offensively for Frias, but overall he had plenty of good moments. He found some pullside power from the left side, made plenty of contact and drew some walks. He also showed a strong glove at third base, maybe the best glove in the system at any position.

OF 1:Wuilfredo Antunez: .275/.354/.420, 17 2B, 6 HR, 11/17 SB, .366 wOBA, 120 wRC+

There weren’t a ton of choices in the outfield this year, at least not as an outfielder and Antunez also had his ups and downs, like most prospects. At 21 in Low-A, these are not blow you away numbers, but his K/BB% were promising, he showed some pop and might be able to play center. There are consistency and maturity issues to work on, but that can be said about any 21 year old minor leaguer. Still enough production to be a top-3 performance in the Guardians system in 2023 among outfielders in a down year.

OF 2: Chase DeLauter: .355/.417/.528, 22 2B, 5 HR, .428 wOBA, 159 wRC+

The only reason DeLauter is in the number two spot is due to only collecting 217 plate appearances and some of these numbers coming during his rehab in Arizona. Still, DeLauter hit well in High-A once he was healthy and on the field and was pretty good in the AFL. The results were there for excitement if they hold true.

OF 3: Jaison Chourio: .321/.417/.528, .13 2B, HR, 20/22 SB, .425 wOBA, 132 wRC+,

Most of the damage Chourio did was in the Arizona Rookie League, so these results are fairly hard to take, and I admit this spot could be a bit of name value. But there weren’t many big performances to choose from and this all came in Chourio’s age 18 season. If he had done this in Low-A all year it would have been more impressive but it still stands out in 2023 in this system.

DH: Jonathan Rodriguez: .286/.368/.529, 26 2B, 29 HR, .393 woBA, 135 wRC+

Putting Rodriguez at DH was the most logical choice since all three ahead of him here were better defenders than he is, even though he has a good am. But he did produce some of the best numbers in the system this past year between Double-A and Triple-A. There was still a question of his approach in the minors at both levels, especially when he got to Triple-A, but he still produced in a way to take notice and see what this might turn into.

RHP: Trenton Denholm: 91.1 IP, 3.16 ERA/3.18 FIP, 21.2 K%, 5.7 BB%

There weren’t a lot of big performance chances among right handed pitchers in the system, but Denholm has a solid year with his FIP matching his ERA. He didn’t miss many bats but he had better control and success in 2023, and perhaps this can be a building block season for him going into 2024.

LHP: WIll Dion: 116.1IP, 2.39 ERA/2.86 FIP, 27.9 K%, 7.6 B%

Easily the best pitcher in the Guardians system in 2023. Despite only being able to hit 91-92 on the radar gun, he’s got two above average secondaries, and he’s missing bats in Double-A with that stuff. It’s hard to now how that velocity is going to play going forward but there’s no denying what he was able to do in 2023.

RP: Franco Aleman: 55IP, 3.10 ERA/2.50 FIP, 36.1 K%, 7.7 BB%

This was one area where Cleveland had a few good candidates to go with here. But Aleman got a promotion to Double-A with very questionable numbers at High-A, then took off big time in Double-A, not allowing an earned run his entire time there 0.00 ERA; 24 INN; 38 K; 5 W; 9 H. He made some errors that led to unearned runs and wasn’t able to pitch a ton due to availability at times. But he was flat out dominant stuff wise and Double-A hitters couldn’t touch him.

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JOE DEVERS



2023 Surprise and Disappointing Cleveland Guardians Prospect

JUSTIN LADA

DEC 19

2023 Cleveland Guardians Surprise Prospect of the Year

INF Aaron Bracho: .245/.340/.441, 14 2B, 18 HR, .352 wOBA, 115 wRC+

Once upon a time, Aaron Bracho was one of the highest touted international prospects in Cleveland’s 2017 July 2 class. He handled complex ball and a short, short-season ball stint well. After the pandemic lost season of 2020, Bracho was lost as a prospect. Despite two straight horrendous offense stints in High-A, Cleveland pushed him to Double-A in 2023 and after he ditched switch-hitting for just swinging it from the left side, Bracho sort of regained some offensive luster. He was a three-true outcome type hitter with average power who has some platoon issues. He doesn’t still have a clear defensive home, but rebounding to have the offensive year he did in 2023 after looking like things were going up in smoke for him makes him a good candidate for surprise prospect of the year.

INF Jose Devers: .252/.356/.398, 15 2B, 11 HR, 34/45 SB, .356 wOBA, 113 wRC+

Two meager offensive seasons in the complex leagues didn’t give much hope for the 20-year-old shortstop to break through in 2023 at Low-A. The numbers on the whole don’t look like anything special, and they may not be any sort of indicator of future offensive success at this point, but Devers showed some pop at times and was one of the hottest hitters in the Carolina League at points. He played a good defensive shortstop and stole bases at a high rate. It was good enough to open some eyes for someone who wasn’t expected to do much offensively.

RP Franco Aleman: 55IP, 3.10 ERA/2.50 FIP, 36.1 K%, 7.7 BB%

Speaking of someone unexpected to fly onto the radar, Aleman was a journeyman college pitcher who was the third arm taken out of Florida by Cleveland in 2021, behind Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich. He was raw and had not been through a good developmental program yet, but in his first year in the system he showed some ability to miss bats, but was very inconsistent and didn’t hold his velocity well as a starter. But when he switched to the bullpen, his arm stood out more in High-A, though the results didn’t ever show it. But when he got to Double-A, that all changed as everything clicked in a scoreless run to the end of the year to put him on this list.

2023 Cleveland Guardians Surprise Prospect of the Year

RP Franco Aleman: 55IP, 3.10 ERA/2.50 FIP, 36.1 K%, 7.7 BB%

It was a quick ascent for Aleman in 2023. In 2022, he finished with a 6.31 ERA, but a 3.79 FIP thanks to 75 strikeouts to 18 walks in 55.2IP as a starter.

He started 2023 in Lake County and moved to the bullpen, putting up a 5.52 ERA in 31 innings, though once again had a lower FIP of 3.67. But he never looked like a dominant reliever with the Captains, just a guy with inconsistently good stuff that couldn’t put it all together.

Then he got to Double-A and didn’t allow an earned run in 24 innings pitched. He fanned 38 hitters in 24 innings, compared to just five walks. He blew hitters away regularly with the only blips being some errors he made on the mound leading to runs. Aleman sit 95-100 with a lot of arm side run and rise on his heater, and has a slider to go with it that has enough vertical break to miss bats and get chases in Double-A. There’s some work to be done on his fielding and putting in the work to be available more often, but once he gets there, he could be a reliever who pushes his way into the bullpen conversation in 2024.

2023 Disappointing Prospect

INF Angel Martinez: .251/.321/.394, 23 2B, 14 HR, 11/14 SB, .323 wOBA, 101 wRC+

Despite having some of the “better” numbers of players on this list, Martinez is here because fair or not, he was expected to have a solid 2023 after breaking out in 2022 and getting added to the 40 man roster. He was still young at Double-A and did end up at Triple-A, but strikeouts and inconsistencies really plagued him early. He showed stretches of adjusting, but never did seem to show the same tools that put him on the map in 2022.

1B/OF Jhonkensy Noel: .220/.303/.420 23 2B, 27 HR, .320 wOBA, 77 wRC+

People will look at Noel’s 27 homers and wonder why he’s on this list. But everyone wanted to tout Noel as the organization’s answer for a much needed power bat in the corner. Instead, Noel struggled in Triple-A, showing an all or nothing approach. He doesn’t wing and miss like some bigger power hitters, but instead makes far too much weak contact for someone with his power. It shows a real lack of barrel control, because when he does find it, the ball can go 500 feet. But he makes enough bad contact to drag down his impact even when he doesn’t strikeout, which is why he was here, due to 2023 expectations.

RHP Jack Leftwich: 78IP, 21.5 K%, 7.7 BB%, 5.45 ERA/4.48 FIP

Leftwich ended 2022 with some elbow issues but was deemed healthy to start 2023. He also spent time on the injured list in 2023. When he was healthy, he was inconsistent, though his velocity and overall control didn’t suffer a ton. He underperformed some of his metrics but still struggled enough despite the velocity and control being there. Injuries may have played a role, but after 2022, he appeared to be headed towards another breakout in 2023 that never really materialized. Still, if healthy in 2024, there’s plenty of hope for him to get back on track.

INF Angel Martinez

.251/.321/.394, 23 2B, 14 HR, 11/14 SB, .323 wOBA, 101 wRC+

Coming off a strong age-20 season at High-A and Double-A, shooting up some prospects lists, he didn’t quite follow that up with a strong age-21 season. He did bring some of his early season strikeout issues down later in the year, but he didn’t show the same zone control or good swing decisions he did a year ago. Perhaps that was Double-A having more scouting reports on him, but his adjustment back could have been better. Still, a bit like Bo Naylor in 2021, he should get some kind of mulligan going into 2024, but it seemed like he was poised for a better 2023. We’ll see what 2024 brings for the switch hitting infielder, but Martinez definitely lost some stock this past year he and the Guardians will be looking to rebuild in 2024.

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Must-see Spring Breakout prospect matchups

December 17th, 2023

While the winter holiday season is about bringing people together, the same could be said for next year’s inaugural Spring Breakout.

And by “people,” we mean some of the game’s most talented prospects and the future stars of Major League Baseball.

The four-day exhibition series -- to be held March 14-17 in Arizona and Florida -- is designed to give each farm system’s top prospects a large spotlight before the season ahead. By putting them on the same field, it’s a chance to pit them against each other for the first time, and possibly to preview matchups we could see for a long time down the road.

With that in mind, here are the prospect pairings we’re most interested in seeing in next year’s Spring Breakout games:

1. Jackson Holliday, SS/2B (BAL No. 1, MLB No. 1) vs. Paul Skenes, RHP (PIT No. 1, MLB No. 3)

Come on, there could only be one matchup at the top. The two most recent No. 1 overall picks could take the same field in Bradenton, Fla., on March 14 in the Florida opener of the Spring Breakout, and while no pitcher-batter matchup is guaranteed, it sure would be a treat to see Holliday leading off against Skenes right from the jump. The Orioles infielder’s advanced approach would provide a lovely test for the Pirates righty’s triple-digit fastball and plus-plus slider. Think of it as the Breakout’s answer to last year’s Ohtani-Trout World Baseball Classic showdown.

2. Colson Montgomery, SS (CWS No. 1, MLB No. 17) vs. Cade Horton, RHP (CHC No. 2, MLB No. 29)

Chicago loves its bragging rights, so all sides of the Windy City should be keeping close tabs if Montgomery and Horton cross paths in the Arizona desert on March 15. Montgomery brings Corey Seager comparisons as a tall, left-handed-hitting shortstop with plus hit and power tools to the table, while Horton can counteract that with a 94-96 mph fastball and wipeout slider.

3. Wyatt Langford, OF (TEX No. 2, MLB No. 13) vs. Rhett Lowder, RHP (CIN No. 2, MLB No. 41)

The former Florida outfielder and Wake Forest righty never crossed paths in school. They have a chance to do so on March 14, eight months after they were selected fourth and seventh overall, respectively, in the 2023 Draft. It could be a big spring for Langford, who showed impressive swing decisions and ample power while zooming to Triple-A after signing, and he could use the Breakout as an opportunity to push for a spot in Texas as early as Opening Day. Lowder has yet to throw a pitch in pro ball, but his fastball-slider-changeup mix and plus control could be enough to keep Langford at bay if/when given the chance.

4. Junior Caminero, 3B/SS (TB No. 1, MLB No. 6) vs. Walker Jenkins, OF (MIN No. 1, MLB No. 16)

This is likely the only Spring Breakout with Caminero as a prospect, so soak it up while you can on March 16. The 20-year-old infielder, who debuted for the Rays at the tail end of 2023, has top-of-the-line raw power that he often takes into games, as proven by last year’s 31-homer campaign. Jenkins has plenty of five-tool potential in his own right, but he comes from the opposite side of the spectrum as a 2023 fifth overall pick in his first spring. Getting two high-ceiling talents on the same diamond, regardless of MLB readiness, is one of the main points of the Spring Breakout.

5. Ethan Salas, C (SD No. 1, MLB No. 5) vs. Harry Ford, C (SEA No. 2, MLB No. 39)

Catchers. Get your catchers, here. Ford knows a thing or two about making the most of the big stage after competing for Team Great Britain in last year’s World Baseball Classic and European Baseball Championship, and his above-average power could feature nicely in the middle of Seattle’s lineup. Meanwhile, this will be a nice showcase for Salas coming off his breakout age-17 season in which he climbed to Double-A. His impressive receiving skills alone would be an asset to his fellow Padres prospects.

6. Noelvi Marte, 3B/SS (CIN No. 1, MLB No. 23) vs. Kyle Manzardo, 1B (CLE No. 2, MLB No. 58)

The pair of Ohio infielders have something to prove this spring. Marte got his Reds career off to a solid start by batting .316 while hitting the ball hard over 35 games, but Cincinnati’s Jeimer Candelario signing makes the infield all the more crowded. Manzardo was still battling a shoulder injury when Cleveland acquired him last July, but he was one of the Arizona Fall League’s most productive hitters. He should be in line to compete for the Guardians’ Opening Day first-base job. Consider the Breakout more audition tape.

7. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP (TOR No. 1, MLB No. 31) vs. Spencer Jones, OF (NYY No. 1, MLB No. 73)

Two top AL East talents? Check. A power arm facing a power bat? Check. A lefty-on-lefty matchup? Check. Any way you slice this, a Tiedemann-Jones faceoff would be fun in Tampa on March 16. The southpaw’s mid-90s fastball, plus sweeper and great changeup could be menacing against the former Vanderbilt star, but keep in mind, Jones had a higher OPS (.804) against lefties than righties (.775) in 2023.

8. Dylan Crews, OF (WSH No. 1, MLB No. 4) vs. Jett Williams, SS/OF (NYM No. 3, MLB No. 78)

Like his former LSU teammate Skenes, Crews will garner plenty of attention in his first Spring Training as the face of the Nationals system, and his plus-plus hit tool and plus power could make him a Major League option as early as Opening Day. As part of its rebuild, expect Washington to keep Crews in front of fans, so expect him to start on March 15. As for the Mets, potential division rivals Luisangel Acuña or Drew Gilbert could be good foils for Crews, but we’ll go with Williams -- a true up-the-middle talent with plus speed and an approach that could be a menace to Washington pitching in March and well beyond.

9. Roman Anthony, OF (BOS No. 2, MLB No. 35) vs. Hurston Waldrep, RHP (ATL No. 2, MLB No. 100)

Waldrep’s plus-plus splitter is designed to dominate left-handed hitters; it’s a big reason why the former Florida Gator struck out 21 of the 64 Minor League lefties (32.8 percent) he faced after the Braves took him 24th overall in July. But Anthony -- a 19-year-old outfielder who walked 86 times and posted an .869 OPS across three levels in his first full season -- could prove a fun test. The Red Sox slugger slugged .484 against righties in 2023, compared to .375 against his fellow southpaws.

10. Justin Crawford, OF (PHI No. 3, MLB No. 77) vs. Max Clark, OF (DET No. 1, MLB No. 15)

There could be a ton of speed on display in Lakeland on March 16. Crawford swiped 47 bags in only 87 games between Single-A and High-A in his first full season, second-most in the Phillies organization despite some missed time. Clark is a 70-grade runner in his own right who will be out to make waves in his first taste of Spring Training as the 2023 No. 3 overall pick. Consider yourselves warned, backstops.

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My comments on that list of best players were already posted in Winter Ball folder.
I don't see why Rocchio isn't the SS on his list. Or Tanner Burns as RHP.
As for disappointments, Martinez was challenged at a higher level than his age dictates and wasn't bad. Noel did about all that could be expected of a free swinger also at a level above normal for his range although it would have been nice if he had improved his K total.

The Angel Martinez critique is pretty silly !