from fangraphs

Erik Sabrowski had one of the more unique backstories among players who participated in this year’s Arizona Fall League. A 6-foot-3, 240-pound southpaw who turned 26 on Halloween, he not only hails from Edmonton, Alberta, he’d logged only 50-and-two thirds professional innings prior to suiting up for the Peoria Javelinas. Selected in the 14th round of the 2018 draft by the San Diego Padres out of Concordia, Kansas’s Cloud County Community College, Sabrowski subsequently underwent two Tommy John surgeries before being taken in the Minor League phase of the 2021 Rule 5 draft by the Cleveland Guardians.


His performance this summer was that of a predictably unpolished, yet unquestionably promising, under-the-radar pitching prospect. In 20 relief appearances for Double-A Akron, Sabrowski surrendered just 13 hits while fanning 28 batters over 21-and-two-thirds innings — this with a 2.49 ERA and a 30.4% strikeout rate — but he also issued 18 free passes. His AFL numbers were similar in nature. Equal parts overpowering and erratic, he had 16 strikeouts and 10 walks, and allowed just four hits, in nine-and-two-thirds innings.

Sabrowski’s swing-and-miss stuff doesn’t come courtesy of elite velocity. As he explained in the final days of his AFL campaign, it comes primarily from movement.

“I don’t throw terribly hard, but I throw a pretty mean fastball,” said Sabrowski, whose heater sits in the low 90s and gets around 20 inches of vertical ride. “It has a lot of carry and they showed me that I can live at the top of the zone. It really plays up there. The backspin and carry is what makes me good, which is something I didn’t know for a long time. The Cleveland organization has a good idea of how to maximize your potential. They take what you’re really good at and try to make it even better.”

Sanbrowski, who throws from a high three-quarters slot, considers his curveball his second-best pitch — “I try to make it go straight down” — and his slider “still kind of a work in progress.” A scout I spoke to on my AFL visit is impressed with the overall quality of the southpaw’s offerings.

“His stuff is impressive,” the scout told me. “I saw him early on and it was like, ‘Oh boy.” This is what Cleveland does well — their pitching stands alone — and his story, being a northern arm who went to a junior college… I mean, I don’t hold age against these guys as much as some others might. Especially pitchers. There are so many training techniques that some of these guys take a really big leap in their mid-20s.”

One area where Sabrowski won’t need to need to take a big leap is with the bat. While he raked with the bat in 2017 as a two-way player for the summer collegiate Western Major Baseball League’s Edmonton Prospects, he has no aspirations to be the next Shohei Ohtani.


“I miss hitting, but then I look at some of the stuff our guys here throw,” said Sabrowski, who likewise gave up any NHL aspirations he might have by age 16 (still a big hockey fan, he took the ice as a defenseman growing up). I think I’d have zero chance of hitting any of them. I can hit 85 [MPH], but that’s about it.”

Sabrowski throws harder than that, and while he’s by no means a flamethrower, his ability to induce swings-and-misses from professional hitters has been impressive. Backstory aside, he’s an intriguing pitching prospect in a Cleveland Guardians organization that has a way of producing productive big-league pitchers.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-note ... in-philly/

He's a maybe couldbe someday

BA top 10 released this morning; questions this afternoon.

Projected 2027 Lineup [they never assume players get traded away or leave as free agents]
Catcher: Bo Naylor (27)
First Base: Kyle Manzardo (26)
Second Base: Andres Gimenez (28)
Third Base: Jose Ramirez (34)
Shortstop: Brayan Rocchio (26)
Left Field: George Valera (26)
Center Field: Steven Kwan (29)
Right Field: Chase DeLauter (25)
Designated Hitter: Josh Naylor (30)

No. 1 Starter: Shane Bieber (32)
No. 2 Starter: Gavin Williams (28)
No. 3 Starter: Tanner Bibee (27)
No. 4 Starter: Triston McKenzie (29)
No. 5 Starter: Daniel Espino (26)
Closer: Emmanuel Clase (29)

Listed below are the prospects with the best tools within the organization. To go directly to Cleveland’s Top 10, click here.

Best Tools
Best Hitter for Average: Chase DeLauter
Best Power Hitter: Jhonkensy Noel
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Brayan Rocchio
Fastest Baserunner: Guy Lipscomb
Best Athlete: Chase DeLauter
Best Fastball: Daniel Espino
Best Curveball: Alex Clemmey
Best Slider: Daniel Espino
Best Changeup: Joey Cantillo
Best Control: Will Dion
Best Defensive Catcher: Robert Lopez
Best Defensive Infielder: Brayan Rocchio
Best Infield Arm: Kahlil Watson
Best Defensive Outfielder: Petey Halpin
Best Outfield Arm: Johnathan Rodriguez

1. Chase DeLauter
OF

2. Brayan Rocchio
SS

3. Daniel Espino
RHP

4. Kyle Manzardo
1B

5. Juan Brito
2B

6. Angel Martinez
2B

7. George Valera
OF

8. Jaison Chourio
OF

9. Ralphy Velazquez
C

10. Alexander Clemmey
LHP

BA Grade/Risk: 60/High.

Track Record: DeLauter was unheralded as a prep player at Hedgesville High in West Virginia and went to James Madison as a two-way player. While he played well at JMU in 20202 and 2021, the pandemic severely limited his game time. DeLauter remained under the radar going into summer 2021, when he broke out in the Cape Cod League, tying for the league lead with nine home runs in 34 games. He was off to a strong start in the spring of 2022, but a broken left foot in April brought an end to his junior season after just 24 games. The Guardians drafted DeLauter 16th overall in 2022 and signed him for $3.75 million, which was roughly slot value for the pick. He did not play after the draft and his pro debut was further delayed in 2023 when he required another surgery on his foot, sidelining him until June. DeLauter spent most of 2023 at High-A Lake County, reaching Double-A Akron for six games and then extending his season in the Arizona Fall League. He hit .299/.385/.529 in 23 AFL games, leading the league with 27 RBIs and ranking among the leaders with five home runs.

Scouting Report: DeLauter first stands out for his size—he is listed at 6-foot-4, 235 pounds—and his powerful lefthanded swing. He’s a disciplined hitter with good strike-zone awareness. DeLauter rarely expands the zone and shows good barrel control, making contact on pitches in the zone 88% of the time in 2023 and chasing just 20% of the time. He swings the bat judiciously, making pitchers come into the strike zone and not digging himself into early pitchers’ counts. DeLauter has plus raw power and gets to it well, consistently making hard contact. He averaged an 89 mph exit velocity on his batted balls in 2023 and topped out near 111. He gets the ball in the air consistently, with one of the lowest groundball rates in the Guardians’ minor league system. DeLauter looks like a prototype corner outfielder, but he has above-average speed, covers ground well and has good instincts in the outfield. He split time in 2023 evenly between center field and right field and could settle in either spot. He has a plus arm.

The Future: Once DeLauter got underway in 2023, his season couldn’t have gone much better. He peaked at Double-A Akron and should return there to open 2024. The early returns have been great, and more than anything else, DeLauter needs more at-bats to further his development. The Guardians’ lineup has a desperate need for power after finishing last in MLB in home runs and 29th in slugging in 2023. DeLauter could add a needed impact bat to Cleveland’s lineup, potentially by the end of 2024.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 55 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 60

BA Grade/Risk: 60/High.

Track Record: Rocchio was nicknamed “The Professor” soon after signing in 2017 because of his preternatural baseball IQ and feel for the game. Those traits helped him hit the ground running in pro ball, and he’s been on an accelerated track from the beginning. He reached Double-A Akron in 2021 as a 20-year-old, despite travel issues in 2020 that left him stuck in Venezuela during the pandemic. Rocchio was added to the 40-man roster after that season and the following year reached Triple-A Columbus. He made his major league debut May 16, 2023, and went up and down a couple times during the season, appearing in 23 games for the Guardians.

Scouting Report: Rocchio doesn’t stand out physically, but he has solid all-around tools that play up even further thanks to his game awareness. A switch-hitter, he has a smooth, consistent swing from both sides of the plate and excellent pitch recognition. He’s an aggressive hitter and consistently barrels the ball. Rocchio has grown into more power as he’s physically matured and worked more on strength training, and now has average power potential. It plays mostly as doubles pop. Rocchio has long since answered any questions about his ability to stick at shortstop. He’s an above-average runner, and his hands and arm are good enough for the position. He’s also seen time at second and third base to give him more versatility. Even in the big leagues, the vast majority of his time has been spent at shortstop.

The Future: There are no shortage of options to become Cleveland’s shortstop of the future, but Rocchio is the most likely answer and could win the job as soon as Opening Day. He has Gold Glove upside as a defender and should be a solid piece of the lineup.

Scouting Grades: Hit: : 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Fielding: 60 | Arm: 50

BA Grade/Risk: 60/Extreme.

Track Record: Espino was born in Panama before his family moved to the U.S. when he was 15. He soon took off on the mound and hit the ground running in pro ball. He opened 2022 with Double-A Akron as one of the younger pitchers in the Eastern League, but he made just four starts before a knee injury sidelined him for the season. Espino was shut down in February 2023 and missed the season after a shoulder strain ultimately resulted in May surgery to repair the anterior capsule.

Scouting Report: Espino is on the shorter end of what teams look for in a righthanded starter, but his excellent athleticism and a rare combination of explosiveness and flexibility help him access his lower half in a way most pitchers his size cannot. That quality helps him produce elite velocity, and his fastball can reach triple digits and sit 96 mph. Since entering pro ball, Espino has raised his arm slot and now generates significant vertical break on his fastball, adding to its effectiveness. He throws both a curveball and slider. His velocity helps his slider play up, and it’s not uncommon for him to throw the pitch in the low 90s. It’s a double-plus offering and creates swing-and-miss at an exceptional rate. His curveball is a big, 12-to-6 breaker that works mostly as a chase pitch but also creates groundball outs. Espino’s firm changeup is an effective fourth offering and has real promise but needs further refinement because he hasn’t needed to use it often. He has a long arm action but typically pitches with average control.

The Future: Recovery from Espino’s surgery is estimated at 12 to 14 months, putting him on target for a midsummer return. Until he gets back on the mound, it’s hard to pin down what to expect from him. The Guardians added Espino to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. He could quickly get in the mix in Cleveland if he returns healthy and effective.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 80 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55

BA Grade/Risk: 55/High.

Track Record: Manzardo was a three-year starter at Washington State and truly broke out in 2021 as a junior, when he hit .366/.437/.640 with 11 home runs in 47 games. That led him to be drafted in the second round by the Rays and, at pick No. 63 overall, he became the highest drafted Cougar in 30 years. Manzardo has moved quickly in the minor leagues, opening the 2023 season as a 22-year-old at Triple-A Durham. He was sidelined for about six weeks with a dislocated shoulder, costing him an appearance in the Futures Game. The Rays dealt Manzardo to the Guardians at the trade deadline for veteran righthander Aaron Civale and he played well down the stretch after returning from the injury. He shined in the Arizona Fall League, finishing just off the league lead with six home runs and 14 extra-base hits in 22 games.

Scouting Report: Manzardo has a first base-only profile, which can be limiting, but his bat has lived up to the pressure. The lefthanded hitter has an advanced approach and does an excellent job controlling the strike zone—he struck out in 19.2% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He’s not a passive hitter, however. Instead, Manzardo’s pitch recognition and batting eye allow him to make excellent swing decisions. He has above-average power and gets to it well in games, particularly in cases when he can pull the ball. Manzardo is a bottom-of-the-scale runner. He’s a capable first baseman with good hands.

The Future: Manzardo is the kind of power hitter the Guardians have long been looking to add to their lineup. Josh Naylor played the bulk of the 2023 season at first base, and he remains in Cleveland, but there is no entrenched DH in the organization. Manzardo will likely figure into the 2024 lineup at those positions, possibly as soon as Opening Day.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 20 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50

BA Grade/Risk: 55/High.

Track Record: Brito was an unheralded signing out of the Dominican Republic by the Rockies in 2018. He’s come on strong since, and the Guardians in November 2022 acquired him for Nolan Jones and immediately added him to the 40-man roster. Brito rewarded his new organization in 2023, as he shot through three levels of the minor leagues to reach Triple-A Columbus in September, just a few days before turning 22.

Scouting Report: Brito fits in well with Cleveland’s cadre of young middle infielders. He is a disciplined, patient hitter with good bat-to-ball skills. He has walked about as much as he’s struck out over his professional career and has a low chase rate. While he has a contact-oriented approach, the switch-hitter has average power potential. Brito’s swing has natural lift, and as he gets stronger he could grow into even more pop. He’s already showing it in games. His 31 doubles and 46 extra-base hits in 2023 ranked second and third among Cleveland’s minor leaguers, and his .817 OPS ranked third among qualified Eastern League hitters. Brito is an average runner and is aggressive on the bases. He has primarily played second base as a professional and his average athleticism makes him a solid defender at the position. He saw time at both shortstop and third base in 2023 as well, and the Guardians believe his arm strength and range play on the left side of the infield. Still, he projects as a second baseman in the long run.

The Future: Brito will return to Columbus to open 2024 and could make his MLB debut later in the season. From there, things are less clear. The Cleveland infield is crowded. Third baseman Jose Ramirez and second baseman Andres Gimenez have long-term deals. Brito is among the best of the Guardians’ infielders pushing through the upper minors and gives the organization another high-upside player.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 50

BA Grade/Risk: 55/High.

Track Record: Martinez reached Triple-A Columbus as a 21-year-old in 2023, making him one of the youngest everyday players in the International League. His rise since the pandemic has been meteoric. Martinez’s professional experience coming into 2021 was limited to the Dominican Summer League and instructional league, but his experience around baseball—his father is former big league catcher Sandy Martinez, now the Nationals’ DSL manager, and his older brother Sandy Martinez Jr. also played professionally—likely eased his transition.

Scouting Report: Martinez isn’t the most tooled-up of Cleveland’s middle infielders, but his baseball IQ and maturity make all his tools play up. The switch-hitter has a simple swing from both sides and can drive the ball to all fields with solid power potential, though it plays as doubles pop now. Martinez is a disciplined hitter and makes a lot of contact, priding himself in his ability to make quick adjustments at the plate. After initially struggling in pro ball versus lefthanders, he has improved dramatically as a righthanded hitter as he has matured. Martinez is an average runner but still covers a lot of ground thanks to his instincts and makes sound decisions defensively. He also has worked hard to improve his arm strength, which now grades as plus. Martinez can play anywhere on the infield and in 2023 mostly played second base at Double-A Akron and then mostly third base in Columbus, with a solid amount of time at shortstop at both spots. That versatility should help him find a spot in Cleveland.

The Future: Martinez has consistently been one of the youngest players at his level, and the way Cleveland has challenged him is indicative of how advanced he is. He’ll return to Columbus to start 2024 and could find himself in the mix to be called up later in the season.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 60

BA Grade/Risk: 55/High.

Track Record: Valera was born in New York and lived there until his family moved to the Dominican Republic when he was 13. In 2017, he was the centerpiece of Cleveland’s big play in the international market, signing a $1.3 million deal. He was added to the 40-man roster after the 2021 season and has spent the last two years in the upper minors, primarily at Triple-A. While his progress as a professional has mostly had a consistent upward trend line, Valera’s 2023 season was tough. During spring training he had surgery to repair a broken hamate in his right hand and also suffered a hamstring injury. The pair of injuries mostly kept him out of action until mid June, and he never really got on track.

Scouting Report: Valera has long stood out for his advanced setup at the plate as well as quick hands and an ability to keep the bat in the zone for a long time, traits that enable him to make a lot of hard contact. Despite that loose, easy swing, however, there is some swing-and-miss to his game. Valera has struck out in about one-quarter of his plate appearances in full-season ball. His patience and feel for the zone mean that he also consistently works walks. Valera has above-average raw power and gets to it in games well. He profiles as a corner outfielder with average speed and arm strength. He played more center field in 2023, however.

The Future: If Valera is able to bounce back after a season to forget, there’s still plenty of opportunity for him in Cleveland. He looks like a traditional power-hitting corner outfielder, long a position of need for the Guardians. He’ll return to Columbus to begin 2024 and could break through to the big leagues later in the season.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50

BA Grade/Risk: 55/High.

Track Record: A year after the Brewers made Jackson Chourio the headliner of their 2021 international class, the Guardians made his younger brother Jaison their top signing of the 2022 class at $1.2 million out of Venezuela. Jaison Chourio made his professional debut that June in the Dominican Summer League, where he showed off his advanced skill set. He again impressed in 2023, as he moved up to the Arizona Complex League, where he finished eighth with 19 stolen bases, seventh in he batting race at .349, fifth with 38 walks and third with a .476 on-base percentage. Chourio earned a late-season promotion to Low-A Lynchburg as an 18-year-old.

Scouting Report: Chourio stands out for his blend of athleticism, tools and projection. The switch-hitter combines excellent pitch recognition and plate discipline, giving him a mature, advanced approach at the plate. He has good bat-to-ball skills and shows a good feel for the barrel. Chourio is hit-over-power now, but there is some hope that he will develop more power in time as he physically matures. There’s some leverage to his swing that would help him get to his power, particularly when hitting lefthanded. Chourio is a plus runner with good instincts on the bases and stole 20 bases in 22 attempts in 2023. His speed plays in center field, where he can become an above-average defender or better. He has easy defensive actions, good instincts and an average arm. Chourio works out with his brother Jackson in the offseason.

The Future: Chourio is already on an aggressive developmental track. He’ll return to Lynchburg as a 19-year-old to open the 2024 season, when he’ll still be among the youngest everyday players. In a best-case scenario, he could begin to enter the big league picture by 2026, when he will be 21.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 50

BA Grade/Risk: 55/Extreme.

Track Record: Velazquez starred at Southern California prep powerhouse Huntington Beach HS, where he hit 23 home runs in his career and helped the Oilers win the 2023 National High School Invitational. He was the top prep player in the state in 2023 and became the third first-round pick in the program’s history, joining Hank Conger (2006) and Nick Pratto (2016). Velazquez made a brief pro debut in the Arizona Complex League after signing and raked. He went 8-for-23 with two home runs and three doubles in six games.

Scouting Report: Velazquez stands out most for his bat. He has a quick, fluid lefthanded swing and generates easy above-average power. In a tiny ACL sample, Velazquez showed high-end exit velocity with an average reading of 89 mph and max near 109. He has a disciplined approach at the plate and makes good swing decisions, rarely expanding the strike zone. He made contact on pitches in the zone nearly 90% of the time in his brief pro debut, while chasing about 22% of the time. Unlike many young power hitters, Velazquez doesn’t sell out for power, instead relying on his bat speed and strength to drive the ball. Velazquez has intriguing tools behind the plate but his glove lags behind his bat. He receives well, has plus arm strength and earns praise for his makeup. To stick at catcher, Velazquez will have to improve his blocking and athleticism behind the plate. He’s a below-average runner, meaning first base would be his destination if he ever needed to change positions. As a lefthanded hitter with a chance to develop above-average hitting ability and plus power, Velazquez’s bat could one day profile at first base.

The Future: Velazquez will look to work on his defense as he starts his first full professional season at Low-A Lynchburg.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 30 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 60

Prospect grades of 55 all the way through the top 10 is very unusual and very impressive; I will ask BA if any other team has so many well regarded prospects.

I've posted a dozen or so questions to BA chat. but if you have anyone you'd like me to ask about send me a name and I'll see if we can get a reply