12641
by civ ollilavad
BA's first analysis of the potential Rule 5 draft picks. NOTE: please don't read this story if you are not interested in the potential success or marginal prospects
In the world of improv comedy, the first and most important rule is “Yes, and.” Whatever the premise, performers are expected to accept the idea another performer throws out and then try to add to it.
That’s also a good rule to follow when it comes to a MLB Rule 5 Draft Preview. It’s easy to find a plausible reason to explain why every player we write up for the Rule 5 draft shouldn’t be selected. Pretty much everyone included below has some sort of flaw to their game.
But when talking with people inside the industry about potential Rule 5 picks, it’s more important to focus on what a player can do that could lead to them being selected. While there are very few Joakim Sorias, Johan Santanas and Garrett Whitlocks available, there are a number of players who can help a team who has a specific need.
Image credit: Blaine Crim (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
In the world of improv comedy, the first and most important rule is “Yes, and.” Whatever the premise, performers are expected to accept the idea another performer throws out and then try to add to it.
That’s also a good rule to follow when it comes to a MLB Rule 5 Draft Preview. It’s easy to find a plausible reason to explain why every player we write up for the Rule 5 draft shouldn’t be selected. Pretty much everyone included below has some sort of flaw to their game.
But when talking with people inside the industry about potential Rule 5 picks, it’s more important to focus on what a player can do that could lead to them being selected. While there are very few Joakim Sorias, Johan Santanas and Garrett Whitlocks available, there are a number of players who can help a team who has a specific need.
The Best Of The 21st Century?
The 2020 Rule 5 Draft, which included Garrett Whitlock, is among the best we’ve seen in quite some time.
READ MORE
The Rule 5 draft is the land of misfit toys. Every player left unprotected was left off the 40-man roster for a logical reason. In some cases, they are too far away from the majors to be big league ready. In other cases, they don’t fit the profile at their position. Some players are well-rounded enough, but just lack the impact to fit clearly on an MLB roster.
A MLB Rule 5 draft pick is most similar to an out-of-options player signed to a MiLB contract with an invite to spring training. The chance of the player sticking and contributing may sometimes be small, but the cost of taking a chance and adding them to the spring training competition is also small. The $100,000 cost of acquiring a Rule 5 pick is negligible, especially when almost everyone picked is set to receive an MLB minimum salary if they make an MLB roster. The opportunity cost of carrying a player on the 40-man roster all offseason is more significant, but for a team needing depth (or with a barren 40-man) that’s also a modest expense.
So our Rule 5 preview lays out the case for why a player could be selected. We also explain why another team may be leery of the same player. We’ll keep adding to this list over the next few weeks leading up to the Rule 5 draft on Dec. 6.
Image credit: Blaine Crim (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
In the world of improv comedy, the first and most important rule is “Yes, and.” Whatever the premise, performers are expected to accept the idea another performer throws out and then try to add to it.
That’s also a good rule to follow when it comes to a MLB Rule 5 Draft Preview. It’s easy to find a plausible reason to explain why every player we write up for the Rule 5 draft shouldn’t be selected. Pretty much everyone included below has some sort of flaw to their game.
But when talking with people inside the industry about potential Rule 5 picks, it’s more important to focus on what a player can do that could lead to them being selected. While there are very few Joakim Sorias, Johan Santanas and Garrett Whitlocks available, there are a number of players who can help a team who has a specific need.
The Best Of The 21st Century?
The 2020 Rule 5 Draft, which included Garrett Whitlock, is among the best we’ve seen in quite some time.
READ MORE
The Rule 5 draft is the land of misfit toys. Every player left unprotected was left off the 40-man roster for a logical reason. In some cases, they are too far away from the majors to be big league ready. In other cases, they don’t fit the profile at their position. Some players are well-rounded enough, but just lack the impact to fit clearly on an MLB roster.
A MLB Rule 5 draft pick is most similar to an out-of-options player signed to a MiLB contract with an invite to spring training. The chance of the player sticking and contributing may sometimes be small, but the cost of taking a chance and adding them to the spring training competition is also small. The $100,000 cost of acquiring a Rule 5 pick is negligible, especially when almost everyone picked is set to receive an MLB minimum salary if they make an MLB roster. The opportunity cost of carrying a player on the 40-man roster all offseason is more significant, but for a team needing depth (or with a barren 40-man) that’s also a modest expense.
So our Rule 5 preview lays out the case for why a player could be selected. We also explain why another team may be leery of the same player. We’ll keep adding to this list over the next few weeks leading up to the Rule 5 draft on Dec. 6.
Top 10 Players
NUMBER ONE: Tanner Burns, RHP, Guardians
Burns has one of the most significant profiles of any player left unprotected. He was a college star at Auburn based on the strength of his fastball and slider combination. He has found success as a professional with a career 3.31 ERA, a 25.3% strikeout rate and a .221 opponents batting average against over 251 innings. He’s been successful as a starter in the upper-minors and spent the last six weeks of 2023 coming out of the Akron bullpen. Burns pitched to a 1.35 ERA with 13 strikeouts to 7 walks over 13.1 innings as a reliever. His fastball sits 92-93 mph as a starter, but his average induced vertical break is one of the highest numbers in the minors, often exceeding 20 inches of IVB during starts. Burns’ 54% fastball usage is extremely high. His primary secondary is a mid-80s cut slider that he throws 25% of the time, but he mixes in an upper-70s curveball with two-plane break and a mid-80s changeup. Burns has no plus pitch, but all of his pitches produced positive run values this season. He shows the acumen to adapt to a variety of roles.