the rating is not out yet for AL teams, I will check back and post
there is a listing of top 10 debuts for pitchers and for hitters, None of our picks made the list.
Stats for the draftees
Velazquez 348/393/739 in rookie ball
Clemmey DNP
Walters DNP
Kayfus 271/429/542
Ingle 288.464/385
Knapczkyk DNP
Hawke 235/381/294
Monney 152/263/212
Advincula [9th round] 250/519/563 [9 walks 1 strikeout in 25 plate appearances]
Driver Reliever 2 1/3 inning 5 strikeouts
Bresnhan 6.75 in 4 innings
One thing you'll note for everyone but Velazquez: high on base pct compared to batting average, that's something we're always looking for
Re: Minor Matters
12602Manzardo with a double in 4 at bats. DeLauter with the day off.
Cairo 0-2 with 2 walks. He's played IF exclusively during the regular seasons but much of his time in LF in Arizona. Hitting 301 with 826 OPS
Sabrowski 1 2/3 innings, 2 hits, one a sole homer, 2 strikeouts. 2.70 ERA
Cairo 0-2 with 2 walks. He's played IF exclusively during the regular seasons but much of his time in LF in Arizona. Hitting 301 with 826 OPS
Sabrowski 1 2/3 innings, 2 hits, one a sole homer, 2 strikeouts. 2.70 ERA
Re: Minor Matters
126036 strikeouts in 4 innings for Ryan Webb last night; his Arizona total is 27, tops in the league, by 4 over the runner up, in only 14 1/3 innings
6-1 202 LHP age 24 3.22 ERA in 87 innings for Akron this year, 87 strikeouts Only 137 career innings due to injuries.
You probably won't remember, at least I didn't, that we had a LH reliever Ryan Webb one season in the mid 2010s
6-1 202 LHP age 24 3.22 ERA in 87 innings for Akron this year, 87 strikeouts Only 137 career innings due to injuries.
You probably won't remember, at least I didn't, that we had a LH reliever Ryan Webb one season in the mid 2010s
Re: Minor Matters
12604Thursday top prospects list includes
Guardians: Ryan Webb, LHP (Unranked), Peoria Javelinas
The 6-foot-1 southpaw has excelled at striking batters out this fall, and he took over the AFL lead in K’s with six more against Surprise. Webb, a fourth-round pick in 2021, twirled four innings of one-run ball, allowing five hits and walking just one in his fourth start of the fall. Through 14 1/3 innings, the 24-year-old has notched 27 punchouts for a 16.9 K/9 mark.
[he ought to be ranked after this fall]
Guardians: Ryan Webb, LHP (Unranked), Peoria Javelinas
The 6-foot-1 southpaw has excelled at striking batters out this fall, and he took over the AFL lead in K’s with six more against Surprise. Webb, a fourth-round pick in 2021, twirled four innings of one-run ball, allowing five hits and walking just one in his fourth start of the fall. Through 14 1/3 innings, the 24-year-old has notched 27 punchouts for a 16.9 K/9 mark.
[he ought to be ranked after this fall]
Re: Minor Matters
12605current top 30 at MLB.com includes
19 Tanner Burns now a reliever who's finished a grade C+/B- season for Akron. He was drafted in 2020 but of course could not play until '21. Not sure if that COVID year counts toward the 4 seasons before which he must be rostered or Rule 5 available
26. Doug Nikhazy LHP like Burns who had a 4.94 ERA at Akron walking 73 in 102 innings
29 Milan Tolentino IF OPS 740 at Lake County; 547 with Akron this summer
Ryan Webb could supplant some of them I think
19 Tanner Burns now a reliever who's finished a grade C+/B- season for Akron. He was drafted in 2020 but of course could not play until '21. Not sure if that COVID year counts toward the 4 seasons before which he must be rostered or Rule 5 available
26. Doug Nikhazy LHP like Burns who had a 4.94 ERA at Akron walking 73 in 102 innings
29 Milan Tolentino IF OPS 740 at Lake County; 547 with Akron this summer
Ryan Webb could supplant some of them I think
Re: Minor Matters
12606Frday:
Manzardo 0-6
DeLauter 1-5 with a 3 run homer and a 4th rbi and a walk
Cairo 1-3 with a walk
Manzardo 0-6
DeLauter 1-5 with a 3 run homer and a 4th rbi and a walk
Cairo 1-3 with a walk
Re: Minor Matters
12607Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
·
8h
DeLauter has 10 walks to just 6 strikeouts through his 17 games played. His short compact stroke leads to high contact rate. Some scouts worry about him cutting off his ability to drive the ball. Four homeruns tied for 3rd in the AFL disproving that currently.
Quote
Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
·
8h
#Guardians 22yr old OF prospect Chase DeLauter w/ a 3-run HR in the 7th inning tonight for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League. DeLauter has homered in back-to-back games. He leads the AFL w/ 23 RBI's in 17 games.
@CleGuardPro
·
8h
DeLauter has 10 walks to just 6 strikeouts through his 17 games played. His short compact stroke leads to high contact rate. Some scouts worry about him cutting off his ability to drive the ball. Four homeruns tied for 3rd in the AFL disproving that currently.
Quote
Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
·
8h
#Guardians 22yr old OF prospect Chase DeLauter w/ a 3-run HR in the 7th inning tonight for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League. DeLauter has homered in back-to-back games. He leads the AFL w/ 23 RBI's in 17 games.
Re: Minor Matters
12608Big day for DeLauter on Saturday; his 4th homer, and a single, and 3 rbi. RBI total is 23, tops in the league, runner up has 18. with only 63 at bats and 17 hits. 2 doubles and the 4 homers, 10 walks, only 6 strikeouts That's a Guardians type hitter.
Re: Minor Matters
12609Arizona Hot Sheet
3. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians
Team: Peoria
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .429/.467/.929 (6-for-14), 4 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBIs, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1-for-2 SB
The Scoop: After missing ample time over the last two seasons due to injuries, DeLauter has used his time in the AFL to open plenty of eyes. The sweet-swinging lefty has barreled balls all month long and added two more home runs this past week. His four home runs are tied for third in the league and his 23 RBIs top the leaderboard.
3. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians
Team: Peoria
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .429/.467/.929 (6-for-14), 4 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBIs, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1-for-2 SB
The Scoop: After missing ample time over the last two seasons due to injuries, DeLauter has used his time in the AFL to open plenty of eyes. The sweet-swinging lefty has barreled balls all month long and added two more home runs this past week. His four home runs are tied for third in the league and his 23 RBIs top the leaderboard.
Re: Minor Matters
12610DeLauter 0-4 with a walk and unusually for him 2 strikeouts
Manzardo 1-3 unusually for him a single plus 2 walks
Manzardo 1-3 unusually for him a single plus 2 walks
Re: Minor Matters
12612some fellow who writes at Covering the Corners posts his top 10 prospects with lengthy essays. Here's his take:
t was an up and down season across the minor leagues for the Cleveland Guardians in 2023. They received huge contributions at the MLB level from guys like Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Bo Naylor, and Logan Allen. It cannot be overstated how important each and every one of those players were to the 2023 Guardians.
With those contributions came a big blow to the top of the Guardians farm system. This isn’t a bad thing, of course, graduating top tier talent and having that talent play at a high level is what this is all about.
Most farm systems would not be able to survive the loss of that much top tier talent, the Guardians, however, are still widely considered to have an above average farm system.
Here is how I view the top 5 prospects in the Cleveland Guardians system.
Tier 1-The Elite Prospects
1B Kyle Manzardo:
This is easily the toughest decision on this list, I believe both of Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter to be elite level prospects, I am choosing Manzardo here only because of the higher floor, but you can’t go wrong with either.
The Guardians acquired Manzardo at the deadline for SP Aaron Civale. He hit .256/.388/.738 with 6 home runs, and only 14 strikeouts to 12 walks in 92 plate appearances for the Columbus Clippers. He is currently putting up a video game-like OPS(On base percentage plus slugging percentage) of 1.126 with the league leading 5 home runs in the Arizona Fall League.
Manzardo’s combination of contact, power, and plate discipline makes me view him as the best hitting prospect that Cleveland has had in a long time. Another underrated aspect of his game that doesn’t get talked about a lot is that he is a plus defender at 1B.
At Manzardo’s peak, I think he can hit .300 with 25-35 HRs and play gold glove defense at 1B.
2. OF Chase DeLauter:
The Guardians selected DeLauter 16th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft after hitting .437/.576/.828 his last season at James Madison University. Some draft analysts were projecting DeLauter to be a top 5 pick, with a few suggesting he could even be the #1 overall pick after he hit .298/.397/.589 in the cape cod league, and he might have been had it not been for a foot injury that ended his season early.
DeLauter missed time in his first pro season with the Guardians after re-injuring the same foot in January. He wound up debuting for the Lake County Captains in June and hit .366/.403/.549 in 176 plate appearances before his cup of coffee in AA for the Akron RubberDucks where he hit .364/.464/.409 in 28 plate appearances.
DeLauter offers a ton of raw power, but right now it looks like a contact over power profile, that’s less about a lack of power and more due to how insanely good his hit tool appears to be. Hit tool is one of the hardest things to evaluate in hitters before they reach the pro level, and I want to see DeLauter do it consistently in the upper minors before I am sure about it, but the hit tool appears to be elite.
There are questions from multiple scouts about his swing, and it is a weird swing. I do question if he will ever get to all of his raw power in game because of, what’s referred to as a “scissor swing” when he slides his foot backwards. With that in mind, I’m still going to take the approach of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.
At his ceiling, I think DeLauter can hit .300 with 25-30 HRs and play plus defense in RF.
3. SP Daniel Espino:
The conversation about the Guardians 2019 1st round pick in Espino has to start with health. He has not pitched since April 2022, where he was striking out 51.5%!!! of the batters he was facing in AA Akron before he was sidelined with knee tendonitis. He had right shoulder anterior capsule repair on May 2nd, 2023, and will be sidelined for 12-14 months.
If he was fully healthy, he’d be #1 on this list. The reality with Espino is that when healthy, he is the most electric pitcher that I have ever watched. I think he has true Jacob DeGrom type upside if he can stay healthy and reach his 100th percentile outcome. He has one of the best fastballs and one of the best sliders in all of minor league baseball.
By all accounts Espino is an incredibly hard worker and I’m very excited to see him bounce back from this injury and hopefully pitch again in 2024.
Tier 2-Good Prospects With All-Star Upside
4. SS Brayan Rocchio:
Part of the Guardians’ huge 2017 international class, Rocchio, a Venezuelan native, has long been viewed as the future SS of the organization.
Rocchio’s 2023 season was...weird. His home run total fell off a cliff while playing in a much more friendly environment for hitters. He hit 18 home runs in 584 plate appearances in 2022, and then hit only 7 in 623 plate appearances. Maybe the most alarming thing to me was his 2.9% barrel rate this season in AAA Columbus. A barrel is any batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands. For example, a batted ball with an exit velocity of 110 only needs to have a launch angle between 14-42 degrees.
Rocchio’s lack of barreling the ball this season is very concerning, though I think the power he showed in 2021 and 2022 is still in there somewhere. Part of why I believe he had a decrease in power was the approach change he made in 2023 that lead to an increase in walks and a decrease in strikeouts.
The question with Rocchio I have is, can we get the best of both worlds? If he can combine the power he showed in 2021 and 2022 with the improved plate discipline he showed in 2023, to go along with his elite defense at SS, he could easily become an All-Star.
5. 2B Juan Brito:
I know, I know, I wish we hadn’t traded away Nolan Jones, too. But Juan Brito is really good. He follows the types of hitters that the Guardians have targeted the past couple years.
Like Manzardo, Brito has phenomenal plate discipline, underrated pull side power, and very good contact skills. He hit .271/.377/.434 between three different levels this season, with only 88 strikeouts to 78 walks in 555 plate appearances.
The only questions I have about Brito are defensively. Where will he play? In an organization full of premium middle infield defenders, he is not one of them, but for my money, he’s definitely the best hitter among the group.
6. OF George Valera:
Cleveland gave George Valera a $1.3 million signing bonus in their huge international class of 2017. Valera has had a ton of hype around him since the day he was signed, coming in ranked 22nd on MLB Pipeline’s top 30 international prospects of 2017 list. That hype certainly went even further when José Ramírez quoted this tweet back in 2020.
Valera is a really good lesson on why you have to take hit tool grades below the upper minors with a grain of salt. A lot of scouts grade hit tools depending on how pretty the swing looks, and Valera’s sure does look pretty. Valera was given a 60 grade hit tool by a ton of scouts from 2017-2020, but once he made his non rookie ball debut in 2021, where he hit .260/.405/.505 with 88 strikeouts in 363 plate appearances between High-A Lake County and AA Akron, it was clear that there was some swing and miss in his game, and that is OK.
There is nothing wrong with swinging and missing, I’d even argue that the Guardians would’ve been a better offense in 2023 if they had swung and miss more rather than making weak contact on pitches out of the zone. Speaking of making weak contact on pitches out of the zone, which I know we are all sick of, that is something that George Valera does not do, he brings elite plate discipline and plus power. I don’t think it’s a hot take to say that Valera has the best plate discipline in the organization, even over guys like Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito, and Bo Naylor.
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The 1997 world series between Cleveland and Florida came down to game 7, extra innings. In the bottom of the 11th the score was tied, the bases were loaded, and there were two outs. Clutch hitter Edgar Renteria was at the plate for the Marlins. A non-closer with something to prove, Charles Nagy, was on the mound for Cleveland. This is edge of your seat stuff. But maybe you want to just stand up, a chair’s edge is only so big. Because with the context of what and who and how we got to this moment, it becomes even more tense. We’ve got hired guns going up against a pitcher 3 years out of high school. We’ve got a 4x Gold Glove winner embarrassing himself. We’ve got a Cuban defector breaking records. See ya later, chair, it’s rewind time.
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If you take a look at Valera’s AAA slash line this season, you won’t come away impressed. .211/.343/.375 is very pedestrian, but it should be noted that he struggled with injuries all season, which seems to be a recurring thing with him, unfortunately. The injuries alone would be enough for me to look past the production this season, but there’s another reason that makes me feel even better about Valera long term. He was incredibly unlucky. Here are some of Valera’s advanced metrics compared to Bo Naylor(who we know is an absolute stud) in AAA last season.
Bo Naylor vs George Valera
Average exit velocity: 90.8 | 90.6
95th percentile EV: 107.5 | 107.1
Outside of Zone Swing%: 21.9% | 20.8%
HardHit%: 45.1% | 49.4%
Barrel%: 8.7% | 10.3%
A lot of these numbers are very similar, with Valera leading in the bottom 3 metrics. The main difference between these two as hitters is that Naylor is much better at making contact in the zone. That is easily Valera’s biggest weakness and is the reason he is number 6 instead of top 3.
At Valera’s ceiling, I think he can hit 30 HRs and be a .350 OBP guy, with average OF defense, most likely in a corner.
7. SS José Tena:
Ok, I know this ranking may seem crazy to some, and maybe even to all of you, but I LOVE José Tena. He is easily my biggest riser in the system this season. The improvement from being known as a free swinger, to now being a guy with what appears to be legit plus plate discipline, is nothing short of incredible development. Here are Tena’s walk rates by year.
2018: 6.9%
2019: 3.0%
2021: 6.0%(A+)
2022: 4.5%(AA)
2023: 11.3%!!!(AA)
Walk rates don’t always tell the full story in the minor leagues, which is why I wasn’t fully sold on this improvement until we saw him in AAA and even in his short sample at the MLB level. He had a very respectable 23% OZ-Swing%(Outside of zone swing%) in AAA, and then in his small sample at the MLB level had an excellent 18.1% chase rate, which is a borderline ELITE number. Again, we have to be careful with small samples, but these numbers definitely matched the eye test for me, and it is very exciting.
On top of the improvement in plate discipline, Tena has a lot of other things to offer. He has potential to be an elite defender at SS, where he won a minor league gold glove in 2021. The power potential is very intriguing to me, in his small sample size in AAA this season, he had some truly elite power metrics. He had a 91.6 average exit velocity, a 43.2 HardHit%, and an insane 15.9 barrel%. To put that into perspective, Mike Trout had a 16% barrel rate last season, which was ranked 13th in entire league. Of course that number for Tena would have gone down with a larger sample size, and he will never be a huge power guy, but I believe that he has more raw power than most of the middle infield prospects in the organization.
Tena’s 2023 was really a tale of two seasons. From April 6th-June 28th, his slash line was .220/.317/.317 with a 79 WRC+ and a 29.8 K%. From June 29th-August 31st, he hit .344/.414/.546 with a 154 WRC+ and a 26.3 K% between AA and AAA. That K% is always going to be higher than we would like, but that typically comes with guys who hit the ball harder.
I’m trying not to overreact to a half season sample size, but the clear improvement of plate discipline makes me think that this could be very real. At Tena’s peak, I think he can be an above average hitter with elite defense at SS.
8. OF Jaison Chourio:
Brother of Brewers’ Jackson Chourio, who is MLBPipeline’s Number 2 overall prospect in baseball, Jaison is an excellent prospect in his own regard. No, he is not his brother, not many are, but he is a very exciting prospect. Simply put, Chourio had a monster season in the Arizona Complex League. His 147 WRC+ ranked 6th among all qualified hitters and 2nd among all qualified hitters 18 years old or younger in the ACL. He was one of the best hitters in the whole league while also being one of the youngest players in the league, and that is a great combination. With a slash line of .349/.476/.463, and a walk rate of 20.1%, it’s easy to tell what he brings to the table right now. Just as the Guardians like, Chourio is yet another player with great contact skills and great plate discipline, and at only 18 years old, has a chance to grow into a lot more power. 2024 is going to be a huge year for Chourio, he has a chance to jump up this list and into the top 100 if he continues to perform in Single-A next season.
9. SP Joey Cantillo:
Would you believe me if I told you that Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams weren’t the best pitchers at AA Akron in 2022? Joey Cantillo arguably outperformed both of them, having a better FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching) and a much higher K/9 than both of them.
Before the Guardians acquired Cantillo in the Mike Clevinger trade, he was a low 90’s velocity guy, then the Guardians acquired him and did what the Guardians do best, they helped him add velocity and had him up to 98 mph this season. In terms of just missing bats, there aren’t many pitchers in the organization that are better than Joey Cantillo. Cantillo also does a phenomenal job of limiting hard contact, mostly due to his plus changeup, which is easily his best pitch.
So why isn’t he ranked higher? The main reason he is number 9 instead of top 5 is due to the injury history. He threw just a combined 73.2 innings between 2020-2022 due to multiple injuries. 2023 was a huge step forward for him, throwing a career high 119.1 innings and didn’t suffer a single injury.
The other red flag is that his control is all over the place, he had a BB/9(Walks per 9 innings) over 5 at both AA and AAA in 2023, which is far from ideal. Even with his dominance in 2022, he had a BB/9 over 4. IF, and it’s a big if, he can reign in that control in 2024, he could emerge as a legit middle of the rotation starter.
10. C/1B Ralphy Velazquez:
Woooh boy is Ralphy exciting, the Guardians 2023 first round pick only had 28 plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League, but he sure made them count. He slashed .348/.393/.739 with 2 HRs and 3 doubles. Velazquez appears to be another Guardians type hitter, with great plate discipline and contact skills, and he also has a ton of power upside. It’s too early to say anything definitive about Ralphy offensively or defensively because he hasn’t played above rookie ball yet, but there aren’t many prospects I’m more excited to watch in 2024. Look for him to make a huge jump on this list next season if he performs how I expect him to.
t was an up and down season across the minor leagues for the Cleveland Guardians in 2023. They received huge contributions at the MLB level from guys like Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Bo Naylor, and Logan Allen. It cannot be overstated how important each and every one of those players were to the 2023 Guardians.
With those contributions came a big blow to the top of the Guardians farm system. This isn’t a bad thing, of course, graduating top tier talent and having that talent play at a high level is what this is all about.
Most farm systems would not be able to survive the loss of that much top tier talent, the Guardians, however, are still widely considered to have an above average farm system.
Here is how I view the top 5 prospects in the Cleveland Guardians system.
Tier 1-The Elite Prospects
1B Kyle Manzardo:
This is easily the toughest decision on this list, I believe both of Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter to be elite level prospects, I am choosing Manzardo here only because of the higher floor, but you can’t go wrong with either.
The Guardians acquired Manzardo at the deadline for SP Aaron Civale. He hit .256/.388/.738 with 6 home runs, and only 14 strikeouts to 12 walks in 92 plate appearances for the Columbus Clippers. He is currently putting up a video game-like OPS(On base percentage plus slugging percentage) of 1.126 with the league leading 5 home runs in the Arizona Fall League.
Manzardo’s combination of contact, power, and plate discipline makes me view him as the best hitting prospect that Cleveland has had in a long time. Another underrated aspect of his game that doesn’t get talked about a lot is that he is a plus defender at 1B.
At Manzardo’s peak, I think he can hit .300 with 25-35 HRs and play gold glove defense at 1B.
2. OF Chase DeLauter:
The Guardians selected DeLauter 16th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft after hitting .437/.576/.828 his last season at James Madison University. Some draft analysts were projecting DeLauter to be a top 5 pick, with a few suggesting he could even be the #1 overall pick after he hit .298/.397/.589 in the cape cod league, and he might have been had it not been for a foot injury that ended his season early.
DeLauter missed time in his first pro season with the Guardians after re-injuring the same foot in January. He wound up debuting for the Lake County Captains in June and hit .366/.403/.549 in 176 plate appearances before his cup of coffee in AA for the Akron RubberDucks where he hit .364/.464/.409 in 28 plate appearances.
DeLauter offers a ton of raw power, but right now it looks like a contact over power profile, that’s less about a lack of power and more due to how insanely good his hit tool appears to be. Hit tool is one of the hardest things to evaluate in hitters before they reach the pro level, and I want to see DeLauter do it consistently in the upper minors before I am sure about it, but the hit tool appears to be elite.
There are questions from multiple scouts about his swing, and it is a weird swing. I do question if he will ever get to all of his raw power in game because of, what’s referred to as a “scissor swing” when he slides his foot backwards. With that in mind, I’m still going to take the approach of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.
At his ceiling, I think DeLauter can hit .300 with 25-30 HRs and play plus defense in RF.
3. SP Daniel Espino:
The conversation about the Guardians 2019 1st round pick in Espino has to start with health. He has not pitched since April 2022, where he was striking out 51.5%!!! of the batters he was facing in AA Akron before he was sidelined with knee tendonitis. He had right shoulder anterior capsule repair on May 2nd, 2023, and will be sidelined for 12-14 months.
If he was fully healthy, he’d be #1 on this list. The reality with Espino is that when healthy, he is the most electric pitcher that I have ever watched. I think he has true Jacob DeGrom type upside if he can stay healthy and reach his 100th percentile outcome. He has one of the best fastballs and one of the best sliders in all of minor league baseball.
By all accounts Espino is an incredibly hard worker and I’m very excited to see him bounce back from this injury and hopefully pitch again in 2024.
Tier 2-Good Prospects With All-Star Upside
4. SS Brayan Rocchio:
Part of the Guardians’ huge 2017 international class, Rocchio, a Venezuelan native, has long been viewed as the future SS of the organization.
Rocchio’s 2023 season was...weird. His home run total fell off a cliff while playing in a much more friendly environment for hitters. He hit 18 home runs in 584 plate appearances in 2022, and then hit only 7 in 623 plate appearances. Maybe the most alarming thing to me was his 2.9% barrel rate this season in AAA Columbus. A barrel is any batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands. For example, a batted ball with an exit velocity of 110 only needs to have a launch angle between 14-42 degrees.
Rocchio’s lack of barreling the ball this season is very concerning, though I think the power he showed in 2021 and 2022 is still in there somewhere. Part of why I believe he had a decrease in power was the approach change he made in 2023 that lead to an increase in walks and a decrease in strikeouts.
The question with Rocchio I have is, can we get the best of both worlds? If he can combine the power he showed in 2021 and 2022 with the improved plate discipline he showed in 2023, to go along with his elite defense at SS, he could easily become an All-Star.
5. 2B Juan Brito:
I know, I know, I wish we hadn’t traded away Nolan Jones, too. But Juan Brito is really good. He follows the types of hitters that the Guardians have targeted the past couple years.
Like Manzardo, Brito has phenomenal plate discipline, underrated pull side power, and very good contact skills. He hit .271/.377/.434 between three different levels this season, with only 88 strikeouts to 78 walks in 555 plate appearances.
The only questions I have about Brito are defensively. Where will he play? In an organization full of premium middle infield defenders, he is not one of them, but for my money, he’s definitely the best hitter among the group.
6. OF George Valera:
Cleveland gave George Valera a $1.3 million signing bonus in their huge international class of 2017. Valera has had a ton of hype around him since the day he was signed, coming in ranked 22nd on MLB Pipeline’s top 30 international prospects of 2017 list. That hype certainly went even further when José Ramírez quoted this tweet back in 2020.
Valera is a really good lesson on why you have to take hit tool grades below the upper minors with a grain of salt. A lot of scouts grade hit tools depending on how pretty the swing looks, and Valera’s sure does look pretty. Valera was given a 60 grade hit tool by a ton of scouts from 2017-2020, but once he made his non rookie ball debut in 2021, where he hit .260/.405/.505 with 88 strikeouts in 363 plate appearances between High-A Lake County and AA Akron, it was clear that there was some swing and miss in his game, and that is OK.
There is nothing wrong with swinging and missing, I’d even argue that the Guardians would’ve been a better offense in 2023 if they had swung and miss more rather than making weak contact on pitches out of the zone. Speaking of making weak contact on pitches out of the zone, which I know we are all sick of, that is something that George Valera does not do, he brings elite plate discipline and plus power. I don’t think it’s a hot take to say that Valera has the best plate discipline in the organization, even over guys like Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito, and Bo Naylor.
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Rewinding the moment that won the 1997 World Series
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The 1997 world series between Cleveland and Florida came down to game 7, extra innings. In the bottom of the 11th the score was tied, the bases were loaded, and there were two outs. Clutch hitter Edgar Renteria was at the plate for the Marlins. A non-closer with something to prove, Charles Nagy, was on the mound for Cleveland. This is edge of your seat stuff. But maybe you want to just stand up, a chair’s edge is only so big. Because with the context of what and who and how we got to this moment, it becomes even more tense. We’ve got hired guns going up against a pitcher 3 years out of high school. We’ve got a 4x Gold Glove winner embarrassing himself. We’ve got a Cuban defector breaking records. See ya later, chair, it’s rewind time.
View MoreView Less
If you take a look at Valera’s AAA slash line this season, you won’t come away impressed. .211/.343/.375 is very pedestrian, but it should be noted that he struggled with injuries all season, which seems to be a recurring thing with him, unfortunately. The injuries alone would be enough for me to look past the production this season, but there’s another reason that makes me feel even better about Valera long term. He was incredibly unlucky. Here are some of Valera’s advanced metrics compared to Bo Naylor(who we know is an absolute stud) in AAA last season.
Bo Naylor vs George Valera
Average exit velocity: 90.8 | 90.6
95th percentile EV: 107.5 | 107.1
Outside of Zone Swing%: 21.9% | 20.8%
HardHit%: 45.1% | 49.4%
Barrel%: 8.7% | 10.3%
A lot of these numbers are very similar, with Valera leading in the bottom 3 metrics. The main difference between these two as hitters is that Naylor is much better at making contact in the zone. That is easily Valera’s biggest weakness and is the reason he is number 6 instead of top 3.
At Valera’s ceiling, I think he can hit 30 HRs and be a .350 OBP guy, with average OF defense, most likely in a corner.
7. SS José Tena:
Ok, I know this ranking may seem crazy to some, and maybe even to all of you, but I LOVE José Tena. He is easily my biggest riser in the system this season. The improvement from being known as a free swinger, to now being a guy with what appears to be legit plus plate discipline, is nothing short of incredible development. Here are Tena’s walk rates by year.
2018: 6.9%
2019: 3.0%
2021: 6.0%(A+)
2022: 4.5%(AA)
2023: 11.3%!!!(AA)
Walk rates don’t always tell the full story in the minor leagues, which is why I wasn’t fully sold on this improvement until we saw him in AAA and even in his short sample at the MLB level. He had a very respectable 23% OZ-Swing%(Outside of zone swing%) in AAA, and then in his small sample at the MLB level had an excellent 18.1% chase rate, which is a borderline ELITE number. Again, we have to be careful with small samples, but these numbers definitely matched the eye test for me, and it is very exciting.
On top of the improvement in plate discipline, Tena has a lot of other things to offer. He has potential to be an elite defender at SS, where he won a minor league gold glove in 2021. The power potential is very intriguing to me, in his small sample size in AAA this season, he had some truly elite power metrics. He had a 91.6 average exit velocity, a 43.2 HardHit%, and an insane 15.9 barrel%. To put that into perspective, Mike Trout had a 16% barrel rate last season, which was ranked 13th in entire league. Of course that number for Tena would have gone down with a larger sample size, and he will never be a huge power guy, but I believe that he has more raw power than most of the middle infield prospects in the organization.
Tena’s 2023 was really a tale of two seasons. From April 6th-June 28th, his slash line was .220/.317/.317 with a 79 WRC+ and a 29.8 K%. From June 29th-August 31st, he hit .344/.414/.546 with a 154 WRC+ and a 26.3 K% between AA and AAA. That K% is always going to be higher than we would like, but that typically comes with guys who hit the ball harder.
I’m trying not to overreact to a half season sample size, but the clear improvement of plate discipline makes me think that this could be very real. At Tena’s peak, I think he can be an above average hitter with elite defense at SS.
8. OF Jaison Chourio:
Brother of Brewers’ Jackson Chourio, who is MLBPipeline’s Number 2 overall prospect in baseball, Jaison is an excellent prospect in his own regard. No, he is not his brother, not many are, but he is a very exciting prospect. Simply put, Chourio had a monster season in the Arizona Complex League. His 147 WRC+ ranked 6th among all qualified hitters and 2nd among all qualified hitters 18 years old or younger in the ACL. He was one of the best hitters in the whole league while also being one of the youngest players in the league, and that is a great combination. With a slash line of .349/.476/.463, and a walk rate of 20.1%, it’s easy to tell what he brings to the table right now. Just as the Guardians like, Chourio is yet another player with great contact skills and great plate discipline, and at only 18 years old, has a chance to grow into a lot more power. 2024 is going to be a huge year for Chourio, he has a chance to jump up this list and into the top 100 if he continues to perform in Single-A next season.
9. SP Joey Cantillo:
Would you believe me if I told you that Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams weren’t the best pitchers at AA Akron in 2022? Joey Cantillo arguably outperformed both of them, having a better FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching) and a much higher K/9 than both of them.
Before the Guardians acquired Cantillo in the Mike Clevinger trade, he was a low 90’s velocity guy, then the Guardians acquired him and did what the Guardians do best, they helped him add velocity and had him up to 98 mph this season. In terms of just missing bats, there aren’t many pitchers in the organization that are better than Joey Cantillo. Cantillo also does a phenomenal job of limiting hard contact, mostly due to his plus changeup, which is easily his best pitch.
So why isn’t he ranked higher? The main reason he is number 9 instead of top 5 is due to the injury history. He threw just a combined 73.2 innings between 2020-2022 due to multiple injuries. 2023 was a huge step forward for him, throwing a career high 119.1 innings and didn’t suffer a single injury.
The other red flag is that his control is all over the place, he had a BB/9(Walks per 9 innings) over 5 at both AA and AAA in 2023, which is far from ideal. Even with his dominance in 2022, he had a BB/9 over 4. IF, and it’s a big if, he can reign in that control in 2024, he could emerge as a legit middle of the rotation starter.
10. C/1B Ralphy Velazquez:
Woooh boy is Ralphy exciting, the Guardians 2023 first round pick only had 28 plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League, but he sure made them count. He slashed .348/.393/.739 with 2 HRs and 3 doubles. Velazquez appears to be another Guardians type hitter, with great plate discipline and contact skills, and he also has a ton of power upside. It’s too early to say anything definitive about Ralphy offensively or defensively because he hasn’t played above rookie ball yet, but there aren’t many prospects I’m more excited to watch in 2024. Look for him to make a huge jump on this list next season if he performs how I expect him to.
Re: Minor Matters
12613Great list. Every position player on that list will be an above average major league player barring injury. Love Tena and Brito. Tena having a very solid off season so far.
Re: Minor Matters
12614Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
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Jose Tena through 11 games .359 AVG with a .457 OBP.
@CleGuardPro
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Jose Tena through 11 games .359 AVG with a .457 OBP.
Re: Minor Matters
12615If you graded every MLB player, how many are below average, average and above average? I would guess 15 % below, 70 % average and 15 % above.rusty2 wrote: Thu Nov 02, 2023 9:02 am Great list. Every position player on that list will be an above average major league player barring injury. Love Tena and Brito. Tena having a very solid off season so far.