Guardians trade deadline plan, team MVP: A temperature check at the 100-game mark
Cleveland Guardians José Ramírez and Josh Naylor (22) celebrate the team's 7-4 win over the Miami Marlins in a baseball game, Sunday, April 23, 2023, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)
By Zack Meisel and Jason Lloyd
6h ago
CLEVELAND — The Guardians sit at 49-51 through 100 games, four games behind the Twins in the AL Central. Let’s check in with Jason Lloyd and Zack Meisel on the state of the team.
José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have carried Cleveland’s offense for much of the season. But let’s say you need someone other than those two to deliver a key hit for the Guardians, anyone else on the active roster. Who are you most confident would deliver?
Jason: I try to take the emotion out of questions like this and look strictly at the data (and let emotions break any ties). So here’s the data:
Guardians OPS leaders in late/close situations …
David Fry 1.417 (12 at-bats)
Tyler Freeman 1.038 (14 at-bats)
José Ramírez 1.025
Mike Zunino (!!!) .963
Gabriel Arias .907
Steven Kwan .869
Probably a few names you weren’t expecting. Naylor has 11 RBI in late/close situations and Ramírez has 10. Kwan and Will Brennan are tied with eight each.
With runners in scoring position and two outs, it’s again Fry on top with a 1.222 OPS (nine at-bats), followed by Amed Rosario (1.036). Rosario’s 14 RBIs in those situations, incidentally, are tied with Josh Bell for second-most on the team behind Naylor. Again, more names I wasn’t necessarily expecting to see.
I don’t love any of those options, frankly. Fry and Freeman, there isn’t enough of a sample size. I guess give me Kwan because of his bat-to-ball ability and the fact I don’t love any of the other options. But I have to admit, Bell graded out better than I was expecting.
Zack: Kwan has eight multi-hit games in 18 starts this month, and 12 multi-hit efforts in his last 29 starts. Reports of his demise might have been premature. He’d be my choice, but I’m growing more curious about what Bell’s final numbers will look like. Aside from one day in April, his OPS hasn’t been higher this season than it has been the last few days. I keep waiting for him to deliver a two-week stretch in which he carries the lineup and taps into his power the way Franmil Reyes would when he was clicking. Maybe that’ll finally surface. Or, maybe he’ll be a Guardian again in 2024.
Another question about trust: Outside of closer Emmanuel Clase, which three relievers who have appeared in a game for the Guardians this season (and remain in the organization) do you have the most faith in, in order?
Jason: I initially skipped this question and saved it for last. Now that I’m coming back to it, I still don’t have a very good answer.
Xzavion Curry was the first name that came to mind. Everything else has been some combination of gasoline, a match and some dry rags.
The fact they signed Trevor Stephan, and not James Karinchak, to a multi-year deal prior to the season tells you all you need to know about their faith in Karinchak. But it might be nearing time to give him another look. He’s only walked two batters in five July appearances. He will always be a bit erratic. He will always make Terry Francona thankful he doesn’t have any hair to pull out. But his stuff is still filthy when he’s right. And the Guardians simply don’t have any other great options back there right now.
Zack: What are Andrew Miller and Cody Allen up to? OK, I’ll settle for Jeff Manship and Scott Atchison. This is becoming reminiscent of 2018, when Cleveland’s pen was a disaster. I can’t shake the image of Alexi Ogando somehow winding up on the mound in the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium, where he surrendered the lead in his only appearance with the club (the last one of his career). It’s been a mess, especially since the All-Star break, so much so that I actually considered tossing Michael Kelly, who has made four appearances, into the mix. I opted to keep Curry out of this equation since he’s filled 834 different roles. Instead, I’ll go with Enyel De Los Santos, Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin, but this answer is essentially a revolving door.
Congratulations (?), you have swapped bodies with Chris Antonetti, “Freaky Friday” style. How are you approaching the upcoming trade deadline?
Jason: Wake me when it’s over.
Seriously though, this is a really difficult spot for Antonetti and this franchise to navigate.
I was all for trading Shane Bieber, but that seems impossible now. What other big moves are out there? I still believe there’s a “buyer’s” move that involves packaging a number of prospects for an impact bat with multiple years of control remaining, but we’ve thought that for two years now and it still hasn’t happened.
The inability to execute such a trade seems to be this franchise’s clot in the artery. It has left open sores in various spots across the lineup and clogged the 40-man roster. They aren’t any closer to solving the mystery of who is the long-term shortstop because Rosario is still here, they’re still two outfield bats shy of a major-league lineup and the pitching injuries this year have been devastating.
Zack, you and I agreed over the winter that adding another bona fide innings eater might be prudent for this rotation during this transition season from the Bieber era to the Bibee/Williams/Espino era, but the prices on a 2015 Toyota Camry are still pretty steep in MLB.
I guess you dangle Aaron Civale this week and gauge the market. I can’t imagine it will be overwhelming. I get he hasn’t proven to be durable, but he’s only going into his second season of arbitration next year. He can’t make more than, what, $5 million this winter? That’s better than any 2015 Camry.
I’m still trying to make the prospects-for-a-bat move, but obviously only for someone with multiple years of control. If that bat isn’t available, they might just have to sit this one out.
Shane Bieber (David Richard / USA Today)
Zack: I’m adding … pieces that can help in 2024 and beyond. I’d shop Civale to see if it’s worth selling high on the oft-injured pitcher. The Guardians’ rotation is already a mess and Civale hasn’t proved he can be counted on for six or seven innings per start. And if Bieber (now officially sidelined until at least Sept. 10) and Triston McKenzie can’t be relied upon to make an impact down the stretch, well, this might be a lost season anyway. The Guardians need outfield help beyond this season — I’m not sure I would bank on Oscar Gonzalez or George Valera or Will Brennan locking down a spot, and Myles Straw needs to be deployed in a more specialized role. (Straw officially reached 1 million minutes since his last home run, by the way, at 5:55 a.m. on Saturday.)
Regardless of whether Civale stays or goes, it’s probably worth exploring a back-end starter who can chew up innings so the rookie hurlers can survive the season in one piece. And I’d hand Rosario to any team willing to fork over a lottery ticket prospect, so Freeman and Arias can finally begin to demonstrate whether they can consistently hit big-league pitching.
Predict the Guardians’ 2024 Opening Day starting rotation.
Jason: Gulp. Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Civale, Cal Quantrill and Logan Allen. I just don’t have faith McKenzie will throw a pitch before 2025, but I hope I’m wrong. If Civale gets dealt this week, Curry becomes the fifth starter if McKenzie is still healing post-op, although Joey Cantillo might not be far behind.
Zack: They really, really need McKenzie to avoid Tommy John surgery. He’s expected to pick up a baseball later this week. I’ll say McKenzie, Bibee, Williams, Allen and Quantrill.
Who is the Guardians’ team MVP through 100 games?
Jason: The numbers insist it’s still Ramírez — his 3.5 WAR is easily the highest on the team and a full win above second-place Kwan. But it sort of feels like the answer this year is Naylor. When I wrote before the season about guys I’d like to see the Guardians sign to long-term deals, Naylor wasn’t even on the list. He felt league average. Now he needs to be a priority.
After another dreadful start this year, Naylor has figured out how to hit lefties. He’s up to .275 against them for the season and he’s over .300 against lefty starters this year. It’s a huge breakthrough that cannot be overstated in importance. He’ll probably never win a Gold Glove, but his emergence as an impact bat in the middle of the order against both righties and lefties makes the Guardians winners in the Mike Clevinger deal from a few years ago regardless of what happens with Arias, Quantrill and Cantillo.
To put this another way, if you still want to crown Ramírez as team MVP, fine. I don’t see how anyone could argue that. But Naylor’s emergence might be the most important/impactful development in a season when not much else has gone right.
Zack: In March, I certainly wouldn’t have expected to be sitting here debating whether Naylor or Curry has supplied more value, especially considering Curry only made the Opening Day roster when McKenzie suffered a strained teres major muscle in his final spring start. The answer is Naylor, who has emerged as a legitimate, middle-of-the-order threat who can feast on both lefties and righties, a critical development for a team starved for offense. But Curry deserves a ton of credit for how he has handled every assignment tossed in his direction: starting, middle relief, mop-up duty. He has totaled 25 appearances. He twice allowed three runs, both in long relief in lopsided affairs. He allowed two runs in a five-inning effort after an early exit from Zach Plesac. Otherwise, in 22 appearances, he’s allowed more than one run on only one occasion. He’s been a savior for a limping pitching staff.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain