Cleveland Guardians’ first half: 10 numbers that tell the story
By Zack Meisel
5h ago
CHICAGO — Cal Quantrill, from the corner of a silent visitor’s clubhouse at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon, offered a straightforward assessment of the Guardians’ first half.
“I think we’re good enough to win this division,” he said. “We’ve had some tough losses along the way and we’ve definitely had stretches where we can play better, but I think we’re a good enough team to win this division and give ourselves a chance in the playoffs. We just have to put a streak together. What I did today didn’t help that.”
Quantrill surrendered six runs in a series-opening loss to the Cubs Friday, which brought the Guardians to the midpoint of the season. Their 39-42 record, thanks to the sad state of the American League Central, still has them dreaming of October. Here are 10 numbers that tell the story of their rocky first half.
12: Home runs by Guardians outfielders
That ranks last in the majors. In fact, it’s fewer than barely half the total of the team (Boston, 23) that ranks next-to-last. Twenty-eight outfielders have hit at least 12 home runs on their own.
Here’s the breakdown: Will Brennan, five; Gabriel Arias, four; Steven Kwan, two; and Oscar Gonzalez, one.
They’re on pace for 24 home runs as a group. In the last 40 years, excluding strike-shortened seasons and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season — in which Cleveland also ranked last with 11 home runs — only three teams’ outfielders have totaled 24 home runs or fewer as a unit over the course of a full season.
2023 Guardians outfielders: .243/.311/.339 slash line, 82 wRC+, on pace for 22 home runs
2007 Royals outfielders: .271/.341/.374 slash line, 88 wRC+, 22 home runs
1989 Astros outfielders: .243/.317/.330 slash line, 92 wRC+, 18 home runs
1992 White Sox outfielders: .263/.336/.355 slash line, 97 wRC+, 18 home runs
Meanwhile, two outfielders the club traded over the offseason, Nolan Jones and Will Benson, have, respectively, registered slugging percentages of .529 and .467 in 224 plate appearances.
Myles Straw has not hit a home run since Aug. 26, 2021, a span of 675 days, or just shy of 1 million minutes.
No Cleveland outfielder has eclipsed the 25-homer mark since Grady Sizemore in 2008.
In all, the Guardians rank last in the majors with 54 homers, 10 behind the 29th-ranked Nationals. The Braves lead the league with 147.
1: Pitchers on pace to make 25 starts
The Guardians have used 11 starters. The average for a team this season is nine. Last year, they used 12.
Shane Bieber, however, is the only starter on pace to eclipse 25 starts. And, well, who knows if he’ll reach that total in a Guardians uniform. The club has cycled rookies and injured veterans through the other four spots in the rotation, and that trend could continue.
Triston McKenzie received further analysis from a pair of medical specialists this week, and the team is evaluating those results before determining his path forward. For a pitcher dealing with an elbow injury, that’s never anything but ominous.
Aaron Civale and Quantrill have returned to the rotation, just in time for Logan Allen to get a breather in Triple A. Tanner Bibee and/or Gavin Williams could receive a similar respite at some point as the team manages the workload of the three rookie starters. There isn’t a hard cap on any of the three, but Bibee and Allen totaled 132 2/3 innings in the minors last year and Williams totaled 115.
50: Games decided by two runs or fewer
No team has played more close games. In the wild-card era (since 1995), no team has played more games decided by one or two runs in the first half. They have played 35 one-run games, tied for the most by a team at the midpoint in that timeframe. The Marlins led the league last year with 64 one-run games.
That explains why Emmanuel Clase leads the league in appearances, saves and blown saves and is on pace for a Bryan Shaw-like 80 outings.
Last season, the Guardians went 28-17 in one-run games. This year, they’re 16-19 in such contests.
2nd: Cleveland’s rank in bullpen ERA
Admit it, you wouldn’t have guessed that. The Guardians rank behind only the Yankees in bullpen ERA, and there’s a massive gap between second-ranked Cleveland (3.06) and third-ranked San Diego (3.45).
They rank second in ERA. But they’re tied for first in blown saves.
The conclusion to draw: When they allow runs, they do so in closely contested games — the only type of games they seem to play — so the impact is more profound.
9.3 percent: José Ramírez’s strikeout rate
José Ramírez collides with Salvador Perez of the Royals while stealing home in the 10th inning on Thursday. (William Purnell / USA Today)
Ramírez is one of three qualified hitters in the league with a strikeout rate better than 10 percent. He’s one of 42 players with 13 or more home runs. Of those 42 players, the next-best strikeout rates belong to Ronald Acuña Jr. (12.8 percent) and Ozzie Albies (15.3 percent). The only qualified hitter in baseball with a better walk-to-strikeout ratio is Luis Arraez.
Ramírez also ranks in the 97th percentile in Statcast’s Outs Above Average defensive metric and, as is usually the case and as he reminded viewers when he stole home in the 10th inning on Thursday, he remains one of the league’s better baserunners. He could be playing himself into MVP finalist consideration (the non-Shohei Ohtani division) yet again.
25: Stolen bases since the end of April
They had 35 in the first month alone, which ranked second in the sport. They’ve since slipped to 14th.
Terry Francona recalled Friday morning how he urged Mike Napoli to set an aggressive tone on the bases during spring training in 2016. That messaging worked, as Cleveland ranked fourth in the league in stolen bases, second in stolen base success rate and second in extra-base-taken percentage en route to a World Series berth. A similar tactic paid dividends last year when Ramírez and Amed Rosario steered the Guardians to a slash-and-dash style that resulted in 92 wins and an ALDS trip.
They maintained that aggressive approach in the early going of this season, but have strayed from it in recent weeks. They ranked 23rd in the league with 14 stolen bases in June, but they were also caught nine times.
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97th percentile: Josh Naylor’s expected batting average
Expected numbers are not an end-all, be-all, but Naylor’s metrics serve as a reminder that he’s been punishing the baseball. His .302 expected batting average — a reflection of the quality of his contact — ranks in the 97th percentile in the league. His .497 expected slugging percentage ranks in the 87th percentile. And, well, it’s no surprise that over the past month, Naylor has produced a .398/.422/.602 slash line, with more extra-base hits (16) than strikeouts (14).
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6-11: The team’s record when Bieber starts
That’s not his fault, of course. The Guardians are averaging 3.47 runs per game when he takes the mound. They have scored more than five runs twice in Bieber’s 17 starts. They have scored three runs or fewer in 11 of the 17.
Bieber is a different pitcher than he was, say, prior to last season. He’s surrendering more hard contact than ever before and his strikeout rate has plunged. He does boast a 3.48 ERA, though, and he ranks second in the majors in innings pitched. Cleveland’s ace has also recorded three of his four highest strikeout totals of the season in his past four outings.
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.523: The combined OPS by Cleveland’s catchers
Remember learning in history class about how the purchase of Alaska was dubbed “Seward’s Folly” after U.S. Secretary of State William Seward brokered a $7.2 million deal to acquire the territory in 1867? Well, then what do you call the Guardians’ $6 million commitment to Mike Zunino? They might have been better off investing in BitCoin or Pogs or Princess Diana Beanie Babies.
Nothing against the veteran, who by all accounts desperately tried to reverse his fortunes. Zunino simply didn’t have it. There was always risk involved in signing a 32-year-old catcher who was returning from thoracic outlet surgery and had been prone to streakiness at the plate throughout his career. His addition still ranks behind Brett Myers in terms of the worst one-year debacles of the Francona Era. Myers made four appearances and did not have a lot of allies in his brief tenure with the team in 2013.
Bo Naylor should help boost the group’s production at the plate. At the very least, his addition to the roster will hush the pleas to promote Bo Naylor from Triple A. Cleveland did make a run at catcher Sean Murphy over the winter before the Athletics dealt him to the Braves. Murphy will start at catcher for the National League in the All-Star Game.
That .523 OPS, by the way, ranks last in the league, as does the unit’s 36.5 percent strikeout rate.
7: Players who have made their major-league debut
Last season, 17 players made their debut, a number that was mentioned ad nauseam. But how many of the 17 can you name? The list included brief stints from Alex Call, Tanner Tully, Bryan Lavastida and Kirk McCarty, among others. This year, the newcomers account for a sizable chunk of the starting rotation, in Bibee, Williams and, prior to being optioned to Triple A this week, Allen.
Who else could debut in the second half? Joey Cantillo, who has totaled seven outings for Columbus, could factor into the pitching equation at some point. George Valera, provided he avoids any more trips to the injured list, could hit himself into outfield consideration.
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