7 underperforming teams and how they can turn it around

In order of % chances for playoffs based on I don't know what formula

Mets 67% chance of making the playoffs
Padres 58% chance
Blue Jays 51% chance
Cardinals 38%
Mariners 23% chance
Phillies 23% chance
You Know Who: 14% chance

Where they stand: Last year’s AL Central champions have gone 25-32 in 2023, but they are still only 5 1/2 games out in the division. That’s closer to first place than the Guardians were last season at the end of May (six games out).

Where they need to improve: Although they didn’t hit for much power, the Guardians’ offense was slightly above average last season with a youthful lineup that put the ball in play, stole bases and manufactured runs. Cleveland has taken a similar approach this year, but its batted balls aren’t falling in for hits nearly as often. As a result, the Guardians are averaging just 3.68 runs per game, tied for the second-fewest in the Majors behind the A’s. Andrés Giménez (85 OPS+), Amed Rosario (68 OPS+) and Steven Kwan (96 OPS+) have all regressed, and free-agent additions Mike Zunino and Josh Bell haven’t provided the power boost that was expected of them, combining for just seven homers in 340 plate appearances. José Ramírez (127) and Josh Naylor (109) are the only Cleveland hitters with an OPS+ higher than 96.

Guardians trading Shane Bieber? Pitching depth can make that easier – Terry Pluto Scribbles

Updated: Jun. 03, 2023, 2:40 p.m.|Published: Jun. 03, 2023, 4:57 a.m.

Terry Pluto, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Scribbles in my Guardians notebook:

1. With Cal Quantrill and Payton Battenfield on the injured list and Zach Plesac being knocked around in Class AAA (7.56 ERA), it shows you can never have enough starting pitching. A few days ago, the Guardians were talking about clearing rotation spots for Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie, both coming off the injured list this weekend.

2. Then Quantrill admitted his shoulder was sore. He took a cortisone shot and will be out for a least few weeks. Rookies Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee have earned spots in the rotation behind ace Shane Bieber. McKenzie and Civale can fill in the final two spots.

3. Who knows how McKenzie and Civale will pitch? McKenzie came up with a shoulder problem late in spring training. He’s thrown three games covering 10 1/3 minor league innings to prepare for his Sunday start. Civale opened the season in the rotation. He made two starts and then suffered an oblique strain. That was his fourth trip to the injured list since the middle of the 2021 season.

4. Pitchers get hurt. When Civale was injured, Battenfield was promoted. Then he suffered a shoulder injury. Cleveland’s starting rotation has a 4.41 ERA this season, much higher than the 3.73 ERA mark in 2022. For all the talk of the Guardians lack of hitting (and it’s a problem), the pitching also has been rather rocky.

5. Holding up the rotation lately have been Bibee and Allen. Both came to Cleveland for the first time in their careers looking big league ready. Battenfield also had some good moments before his shoulder bothered him.
LIKELY TO BE TRADED

Shane Bieber will be a free agent after the 2024 season. Other teams will be bidding on him as the Aug. 2 trading deadline approaches. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com

6. The Guardians have two more young starters in Class AAA: Gavin Williams (2.25 ERA) and Joey Cantillo (3.03 ERA). They also have Hunter Gaddis in the bullpen, and they like him as a starter. They do have depth, and they’ll need it. But this is also why I’m convinced they will deal Bieber before the Aug. 2 trade deadline.

7. Bieber is represented by Drew Rosenhaus, who primarily has been a football agent. He is moving into baseball. Bieber is his premier client. Rosenhaus naturally wants a big contract for Cleveland’s ace. Dennis Wyrick heads the baseball operations for Rosenhaus. Wyrick broke into the agent business with Scott Boras, the tough-minded MLB agent who rarely gives out team friendly deals. With 1 1/2 years left before free agency, Bieber is not going to re-sign with Cleveland.

8. One MLB source told me other teams have a concern about the drop in Bieber’s strikeout rate. His velocity has dropped in the last two years, yet he still fanned 198 in 200 innings in 2022, when he was 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA. He is 4-3 with a 3.72 ERA this season. An area of concern is 53 strikeouts in 75 innings, a significant drop in his whiff-rate.

9. Let’s look at Bieber’s velocity. In his 2020 Cy Young season, his average fastball was 94.2 mph, according to FanGraphs. It dropped to 92.4 in 2021. It was 91.3 in 2022 and 91.2 in 2023. It hasn’t been a big difference in the last two years. Bieber is a very good starter and has to be attractive to many teams.

10. The Guardians’ depth of pitching allows them to trade Bieber. Their lack of hitting in the upper levels of the minors – especially outfielders – makes it imperative the Guardians use Bieber to bring back some MLB-ready hitters. At Class AAA Columbus, Oscar Gonzalez is batting only .250 (22 of 88) with three HR and 19 RBI.
NOW IN JAPAN

Trevor Bauer has a 6.86 ERA pitching in Japan this season. AP

11. In 2019, the Guardians opened the season with this starting rotation: Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Zach Plesac and Carlos Carrasco. That was four years ago. Only Bieber is left on the MLB roster. Bauer is pitching in Japan, where he has a 6.86 ERA and has allowed seven HR in 21 innings.

12. As for the rest of that 2019 rotation, Carrasco is 2-2 with a 5.75 ERA for the Mets. He was out earlier in the season with an elbow injury. He has been solid in his last two starts. Clevinger is 3-3 with a 4.56 ERA for the White Sox. He just came off the injured list. Plesac has lost confidence. Along with his 7.56 ERA for the Class AAA Clippers, he’s been hammered for nine HR in 25 innings.

13. I wonder how this season compared to Amed Rosario of a year ago. It’s similar. Rosario batted .236 (.626 OPS) heading into June 2022. This season, he’s at .227 (.593 OPS). Rosario usually warms up at the plate in June. His defense has declined from a year ago. According to FanGraphs, he ranks 19th out of 19 regular shortstops defensively this season.

14. Rosario’s trade value is low, as he approaches free agency following this season. The Guardians would improve dramatically defensively with Gabriel Arias at short. I’ll make the case that Arias is the team’s best defensive shortstop, third baseman and first baseman. He also has done a respectable job in the outfield.

15. Remember Owen Miller? The former Guardian was traded to Milwaukee in the winter for a Player To Be Named Later. He’s hitting .328 (.865 OPS) with four HR and 15 RBI for the Brewers. In 674 plate appearances from 2021-22 for Cleveland, Miller batted .231 (.622 OPS). He had problems defensively at first and second base. Milwaukee has played Miller 25 games at second, 10 games at third and six in the outfield.

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These 9 players could use a change of scenery

I picked out the 2 outfielders

Jo Adell, OF, Angels [RH hitter]

A Top 10 prospect in the game in 2020, Adell's brief stints with the Angels in three seasons have not gone well. The former first-round pick -- Los Angeles selected him 10th overall in the 2017 Draft -- has slashed .215/.259/.356 with 15 home runs and 60 RBIs in 161 games with the Angels, who seem to have written him out of their future plans. Adell is raking at Triple-A once again -- he has 18 homers and a .989 OPS through 52 games -- so perhaps another club could find a way to unlock that talent at the big league level.

[in 2022 for the Angels in 268 AB he struck out 107 times and walked 11; a worse version of Oscar Gonzalez ]

Dominic Canzone, OF, D-backs [LH like all of our current crop so unlikely to appeal]

With a glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders (Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy) ahead of him, Canzone appears to be stuck at Triple-A despite his solid production (.975 OPS, 11 home runs in 47 games). The 25-year-old was an eighth-round Draft pick in 2019 and is ranked as Arizona's No. 19 prospect by MLB Pipeline, but his strong bat could make him an interesting possibility for clubs seeking help in the corner outfield spots or at DH.

[this guys has more walks more than he strikeouts this year, but he's been close to that before]

Guardians Designate Zach Plesac For Assignment
By Nick Deeds | June 4, 2023 at 11:35am CDT

The Guardians have designated right-hander Zach Plesac for assignment, making room on the 40-man roster for right-hander Triston McKenzie to be activated from the 60-day injured list. Plesac had been optioned to Triple-A earlier this month. To make room for McKenzie on the active roster, the club has optioned right-hander Michael Kelly to the Triple-A.

The news brings Plesac’s time as a member of the Guardians to a conclusion that’s surely disappointing for both player and franchise. A twelfth round pick by Cleveland in the 2016 draft, Plesac made his debut in 2019 and began his career on an impressive note, with a solid 3.81 ERA (124 ERA+) in 115 2/3 innings of work.

While Plesac’s 4.94 FIP and strikeout rate of just 18.4% in 2019 both gave plenty of reason for concern, Plesac appeared to take a leap forward during his sophomore season that at the time appeared to cement him as a stalwart of the club’s rotation going forward, even in spite of the fact that he was optioned to the club’s alternate site after violating MLB’s health and safety protocols during the 2020 pandemic season. During the shortened season, Plesac dominated opposing hitters to a 2.28 ERA (196 ERA+) in eight starts, backed up by a solid 3.39 FIP and a greatly improved 27.7% strikeout rate.

Unfortunately, Plesac’s dominance he showcased in 2020 did not last. Plesac’s lack of punch-outs came back in full force in 2021 as he struck out just 16.7% of batters faced, a figure lower than all but five starters with at least 140 innings that season. Consequently, Plesac’s results left plenty to be desired, with a 4.67 ERA that checked in just below league average with a 92 ERA+. When 2022 proved to be more of the same, as Plesac posted an ERA+ of 88 with a strikeout rate of 17.6%, Plesac’s dominant 2020 season quickly began to feel like ancient history.

Still, Plesac managed to secure a spot in the 2023 Opening Day rotation for the Guardians in part due to early injuries to McKenzie and Aaron Civale. That stint in the rotation proved to be disastrous, though, as Plesac posted a ghastly 7.59 ERA across six starts while failing to pitch into the sixth inning in all but one of his appearances. That led the club to option him to Triple-A last month, where he continued to struggle with a 7.56 ERA in 25 innings.

Going forward, the Guardians will have one week to waive or trade Plesac before either assigning him outright to Triple-A or granting him his release. Of course, Plesac has three years of big league service time, giving him the option to reject an outright assignment. That said, he would forgo the remainder of his $2.95MM salary in doing so, making it rather unlikely Plesac decides to test the open market.

Of course, it’s possible things won’t even progress that far. Plesac, as an optionable pitcher who’s still just 28 years old with a history of success int he big leagues, could draw interest from pitching-needy clubs such as the Rockies, Cardinals, or Rays even in spite of his extreme struggles this season.

Plesac’s departure opens the door for McKenzie to make his MLB debut after having the start to his season delayed by a teres major strain. A first-round pick in the 2015 draft by Cleveland, the 25-year-old McKenzie broke out in a big way last season, posting a phenomenal 2.96 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.59 FIP in 191 1/3 innings with a 25.6% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.9% as the Guardians managed to win the 2022 AL Central crown. McKenzie figures to immediately slot into the top of the club’s rotation alongside Shane Bieber, filling the vacancy left by Cal Quantrill’s placement on the IL earlier this week.

Making room for McKenzie on the active roster is Kelly, who did not make it into a game for the Guardians after being selected to the roster just yesterday. Kelly figures to serve as pitching depth for the Guardians at Triple-A going forward after posting an impressive 1.61 ERA in 22 1/3 innings at the level prior to his brief call-up.

Will Brennan went 11-for-21 this week with a 1.327 OPS, which raised his overall OPS from .534 to .660.

“This might sound dramatic,” Kwan said, “but he might be one of our best players when he gets going. Contact, power, he can run, he has a great arm defensively, great baseball IQ.”

Brennan said he made some tweaks to his plan of attack, exhibiting more patience and resisting the urge to “swing at everything that’s being thrown at you” in order to emerge from his funk.

“Struggle brings out the best in you or the worst in you,” Brennan said. “You have to be able to make that choice and go along with that.”

Nah ! The real reason for his improvement was Rusty's Kiss of Life.

Who else can we threaten with demotion ?

Q&A: Guardians hitting coach Chris Valaika talks team struggles, keys to a turnaround May 7, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan (38) hits a single during the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
Jun 4, 2023



MINNEAPOLIS — The Guardians have hit 10 fewer home runs than any other team. They rank 27th in on-base percentage, 29th in slugging percentage and 30th in wRC+. They are averaging 3.6 runs per game, ahead of only the lowly Athletics and nearly three runs per game behind top-ranked Texas.

They’ve shown some signs of life in the last week, with 36 runs in their last seven games and better performance from Will Brennan, Andrés Giménez and Gabriel Arias. Are there better days ahead, or will the punchless attack be what sinks the Guardians in 2023?

Hitting coach Chris Valaika chatted with a few reporters Sunday morning in the visitors dugout at Target Field about what he’s seen from various players, as well as the team’s hitting approach and what has changed from last year. (Questions and answers have been lightly edited for clarity.)

This is your second year in this role. How have you learned to deal with the ups and downs, especially with the way this season has unfolded?

It’s important to be the same guy for the players every day. You might feel those ups and downs a little more personally, (but) being the same guy in the cage, in the dugout for the players, I think they feed off of that, the consistency. They have a tough job to do, and you don’t really want to ride or live those highs and lows. I don’t think that’s a healthy way to go about a season when, a third of the games you win, a third of the games you lose. That middle third is the third that makes the season, so just trying to be as consistent as possible.

Do you see guys putting too much pressure on themselves because of the expectations on the team?

Yeah, we talked about that coming into spring training, the expectations and the pressure. It’s a good thing. It’s their doing. They came out last year and played well and now there is that standard. Internally, when we don’t play up to that standard, it’s frustrating, but for these guys as well, having the success they had last year and having some adversity this year — (it’s about) not getting selfish and chasing those numbers, trying to continue to play a team game that we really need to play to be successful.

What have you thought of the way Will Brennan handled early struggles to get to this point now (when he’s hitting better)?

He’s done a great job. His track record and the things he’s done in the minor leagues have set himself up for this. The big leagues are a different beast. Seeing him go through that adversity the first month, struggling with the at-bats he had, the part-time playing time and to take that position over and put up the at-bats he has and continue to make the adjustments and continue to grow as a player, kudos to him.
Will Brennan was 10-for-19 in his past five games before Sunday. (Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)

On Thursday night, you guys strung together a bunch of singles to spark a five-run inning. Is that still the playbook? Is that what you’re still trying to accomplish, or can you do things differently than you did last year?

The goal is never to string together singles. We’ll take it. We don’t preach, “Hit singles.” We want slugging just as much as anybody else. With the identity and makeup of the team, it’s something we don’t want to hide behind, either. We make contact. We also don’t want that to be our Achilles’ heel, that we’re giving away at-bats because we can make contact. So continuing the message to these guys to get their swing off, look to do damage early in the count and then having the ability to tone it back down with two strikes or whatever the game state may be. We’ll take those innings where we put up five runs hitting singles, but it’s definitely not something we’re harping on.

Where’s the line between giving away at-bats but relying on contact? Sometimes you swing early and make contact but it might not be the best pitch.

I think you take the hair with the hide with that. You want to stay aggressive on those pitches you can handle — we want to be aggressive, but we want to be intelligent in the box. It’s not just swinging at the first three pitches you see. It’s looking to do damage, it’s doing our homework before that. We’ve seen of late, in Baltimore and even the series against St. Louis, we were a little bit more aggressive early in the game. We’ll have five, six, seven-pitch innings, but (if) we turn some of those pitches around, you make them change the game plan against you and they start using their spin a little bit more and you force them back in the zone on a fastball that you can handle.

Along those lines, Steven Kwan’s first-pitch swing percentage has doubled in the last few weeks. Is that what you’re talking about? Pitchers know the scouting report on him, so now it’s his turn to counteract it.

Yeah, exactly. Pitchers know certain guys on our team. Pitchers know our identity as an offensive unit. We see a lot of fastballs. We’ve taken a lot of fastballs. I think teams try to exploit that. We all have computers. It’s nothing that we’re hiding. So for us, it’s just continuing to stay aggressive. We had the same conversation last May with the guys. We were really passive in April and we had to flip the script. It just happened a little bit later this season.

Teams try to get ahead of us early with fastballs. For us to flip the script, we need to stay aggressive on the pitches, intelligently, that we want to look to impact, not just swing because it’s a fastball. We’ve run into some really good arms that have a lot of weapons; we also don’t want to get too deep into some of these counts where they can get to those weapons. So if we can change the script and jump on those fastballs early, maybe they have to use their spin early and maybe they don’t execute those pitches and then, deeper in the count, when we force them to throw a strike, we get those fastballs that we can impact.

Has Arias done a better job with that lately?

He’s done a really good job of controlling the zone, especially against right-handed pitching. I’ve been proud of him with that. His slugging has been up. You see the exit velocities with him. I think continuing to preach consistency. We don’t want the all-or-nothing mentality. I think he’s done a great job of late handling the pitches he can handle. He’s hitting the home runs, but he’s put together some pretty good at-bats for us as well, taking walks and driving in some big runs.

You’ve talked about Josh Bell’s contact point and he’s mentioned his launch angle representing when he’s going well and when he’s not. How do you remedy that when he’s going through a tough stretch?

I know we haven’t seen some of the slug or the big numbers we know he has in there. The way our lineup has been built, the way he has been pitched has been difficult. Sure, he’s missed some of the pitches that maybe he can look to impact, and he’d be honest and tell you that. I think there are certain guys in our lineup other teams circle, like, “Don’t let these guys beat us.” I think he’s one of those. I think he’s done a good job. His OPS is close to .700. He’s finding ways to get on base, outside of slugging. When he gets those opportunities, the more traffic we have with other guys getting on base, I think we’ll see the production we want out of him.

Has the opposition changed their attack against you guys offensively?

As far as the way we’re pitched, it seems pretty consistent. … Some of the rules, like the shift, I didn’t think it would affect us as much as it has, but I think it’s affected us more than I anticipated. Not necessarily on the pull side, but some of those off-side hits that we would sneak through, something going the other direction, the shortstop or third baseman is standing over there. Before, those were base hits. I thought the way we hit the ball all over the field that shifting us wouldn’t matter as much, but I think the off-side now has affected some of our play.

The metrics suggested Josh Naylor was one of the league’s least fortunate hitters early on, but he’s made up for it the last month. Is this what you envisioned for him at the start of last season from a production standpoint?

We tried to keep him positive as much as possible, showing him some of the peripheral numbers and all the expected numbers. Stay the course. He very easily could have gone south quick and gotten caught up in the chase of trying to get those results, but he stayed consistent with his work and we’re seeing that stuff pay off, especially hitting behind José (Ramírez). We all know how teams attack José. They don’t want him to beat us. Naylor has done a great job picking up those RBIs for us.
Better luck on balls in play allowed Josh Naylor to bat .293/.341/.549 in May. (Brad Penner / USA Today)

In spring training, you said you have to have patience with power. Do you still feel that way? Will this team ever develop more power?

I think so. I don’t think it’s overnight. I don’t believe that one season in the big leagues makes you a veteran, either. We have a lot of young guys still who are going through growing pains. I still believe you’re going to see power output out of a lot of these guys. It just takes time, especially the way our lineup is and the way we started this year. There were a lot of guys who got pitched to differently. They have to continue to grow and evolve and make those adjustments. We saw with Oscar Gonzalez, he struggled to make those adjustments and he’s back in Triple A trying to work on those things.

How big of a hit was it that Oscar wasn’t as productive as he was last year?

Early on, not a ton changed as far as some of the mistakes he would get in the zone, he wasn’t impacting. We see the aggressive nature of his approach. I think he just got exposed this year, and for him to go down to Triple A and make those adjustments and have the freedom to work on things, rather than being in the big leagues where production matters every day, it’s good for him, and hopefully we get the best version of him when he comes back.

Anything you’re seeing with Amed Rosario that stands out?

Yeah. We have to get him going. He ebbs and flows. We saw the April he had last year. And then we saw him get up to, like, .280. He was starting to impact the ball. He’s a guy we want in the lineup. He’s aggressive on the bases. He can do some special things when he does get out there. He ended last year with 180 hits. He got super hot around this time and carried us. Just getting him back on track and getting him positive and confident and continuing to run him out there and giving him those opportunities to do what he can do.

How has Tyler Freeman handled sporadic playing time for someone who’s accustomed to playing every day in the minors?

It’s impressive. That’s not an easy role, especially as such a young player. We worked hard with him this winter about making some adjustments with his swing. They really showed up when he was playing every day in Triple A. The simplicity and low-maintenance (style) of his swing is really helping him at this level. He prepares really well during the game, hits a ton on the machine, so he’s kept himself ready. It’s a tough role, though, not only physically, but mentally, going (many) days between at-bats and not putting that pressure, hanging your hat on that one at-bat or two at-bats you get and that carries into your next 12 days of not playing. He’s done a really good job. I’d like to see him continue to get those opportunities. I think he makes us a better team being here. He’s making the most of his opportunity right now.

What were those adjustments geared toward?

(He has) a high-contact profile. He would almost default to some of that. So a lot of the stuff we did this winter was giving him some space off the plate, allowing him to free himself up so he had the space to look to impact balls. He has a really effortless swing to get up to full speed, so we really wanted him to tap into some of that. It’s hard to break some of the profile when guys make a lot of contact. It’s hard for them to swing-and-miss. We’re OK with some swing-and-miss if you look to take chances to do more damage. Some of that mental training. There are times when the contact plays and then there are times where, go look to do damage. Go get your swing off.

(Those tweaks came at an offseason swing camp in Cleveland that Freeman, Brennan and Myles Straw attended.)

Did Andrés Giménez feel those expectations after the season he had?

Big time. Coming off a year he had, all the accolades — he’s still only 24 years old. There’s still growing up. He got off to a good start, but he had some of the struggles there. You can look at the way he’s been pitched, the amount of spin he’s seen through the at-bat. We’ve seen some mechanical things, trying to get him back on track, widen him out, keep him behind the ball. He’s been really good of late. As much success as he had, it’s still him going through some of those adjustments now that he’s two-plus years into the big leagues.

seagull wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:54 am Nah ! The real reason for his improvement was Rusty's Kiss of Life.

Who else can we threaten with demotion ?

While I did not go public with it I did threaten to demote Josh Naylor minutes before his big RBI game !

Now let's see what you can do to fix the catching situation; I don't really want a Kiss of Life for Zunino; perhaps you need to make an assertion that Bo Naylor is clearly not ready for the majors and needs to spend the rest of the season in Columbus.

4. Amed Rosario, CLE, SS/OF
Amed Rosario is having a slower season compared to his 2022 campaign, with a .584 OPS through 226 PA. The problem lies here: bat to balls skills is his biggest offensive strength, but he is whiffing and striking out more than in years past. This is significantly hurting his offensive production.

I believe this regression is in part due to pitchers adjusting their game plan when facing Rosario.

Rosario has historically struggled against breaking pitches to the lower-outer third of the zone, especially sliders. He’s seeing breaking pitches a career high 38 percent of the time.

Below is a heat map of his swinging strikes the last three seasons, most of which are on pitches lower-outer third.



While this is not an uncommon area for hitters to swing and miss, Rosario’s struggles in this region go beyond reasonable expectation as a glaring weakness of his. The strike-zone region where a lot of these pitches fall is referred to as the “shadow zone.” This zone extends from about one baseball width inside of the strike-zone to one baseball width away from the strike-zone. Per the graphic below from Baseball Savant, we can see that Rosario has an extremely poor run value of -21 off pitches thrown to the shadow zone this season:



This performance off breaking pitches is vastly different from last season. In 2022, Rosario had a much better season against breaking pitches and had a career best whiff rate and xSLG against them. However, this was an outlier to his career performance versus these pitch types.

Two positive signs here are that Rosario has a career low BABIP (batting average on balls in play) that is bound to improve closer to his career BABIP at some point, and that Rosario is an established player with clear-cut offensive strengths and expectations. However, due to what seems to be an intentional change in attack for Rosario to target his biggest weaknesses, I’m not sold his eventual improvement back to expectation will happen quickly enough to have him as a buy right now.

A


Decision Time: Sell. Rosario doesn’t need to start dominating against those pitches low and outside, but he does have to find a way to protect against them. Unfortunately, due to Rosario’s career struggles against these breaking pitches, I don’t think this is something he will be able to overcome quickly.

Guardians’ Triston McKenzie ‘lights out’ in return, Zach Plesac’s exit, catcher futility and more musings Jun 4, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie (24) throws to the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
Jun 5, 2023



MINNEAPOLIS — A hearty helping of thoughts on the Guardians following their four-game split with the Twins …

Before he dug his cleats into the mound at Target Field on Sunday, Triston McKenzie made three rehab starts, the last one interrupted by rain. No one could have blamed him if he wasn’t sharp for his season debut, following a 10-week recovery from an upper back/shoulder strain. Instead, he limited the Twins to one hit and one walk across five scoreless innings, and he racked up 10 strikeouts.

“The life he had on his fastball,” said catcher Cam Gallagher, “being able to throw his slider and his curveball whenever he wanted, locate and get a lot of swing-and-miss, he executed the game plan and he was lights out.”

Hitters offered at seven of McKenzie’s sliders. They came up empty on six of those swings.

“I hadn’t really seen a slider like his before,” Twins shortstop Kyle Farmer said. “It was, like, staying up, but then it would drop.”

Gallagher said McKenzie served him a steady diet of sliders when they squared off when Gallagher played for the Royals.

“I don’t even want to look at those numbers,” said Gallagher, who is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against McKenzie. “When I signed over here, I think that was the first thing I said: ‘Thank God I’m on this side and I don’t have to face you anymore.’”

Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen have combined for a 2.96 ERA in their 15 starts.

Allen: 2.76 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 9.5 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 9.3 K/9
Bibee: 3.20 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 9.2 K/9

“They’ve been unbelievable,” outfielder Steven Kwan said. “As the bats have been kind of cold, they’ve been the ones to keep us in the game.”

Allen and Bibee have performed similarly to how then-rookies Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac helped to save Cleveland’s rotation in 2019 after Corey Kluber suffered a broken arm, Mike Clevinger suffered a shoulder/upper back strain and Carlos Carrasco was diagnosed with leukemia.

Four years later, though, Plesac’s run with the Guardians has almost certainly come to an end. The club designated him for assignment on Sunday to clear a spot for McKenzie on the 40-man roster.

Since being demoted to Triple-A Columbus a month ago, Plesac recorded a 7.56 ERA in five starts. He allowed nine home runs in 25 innings.

Plesac was an obvious non-tender candidate this winter, as he would have been due at least $3 million in arbitration and he had slipped behind a number of other rotation candidates, such as Hunter Gaddis and Peyton Battenfield (though Battenfield was shifted to the 60-day injured list over the weekend). With Civale and McKenzie returning and with top prospect Gavin Williams pitching well for Columbus, Plesac’s days in the organization were numbered. It’s not a surprising decision, but it’s a bit surprising how quickly his Cleveland tenure fizzled.

An update on the offensive output from Cleveland’s catchers this season:

• .157 batting average: 30th out of 30 teams
• .230 on-base percentage: 30th
• .249 slugging percentage: 30th
• 33 wRC+: 30th
• 35.5% strikeout rate: 30th

On an unrelated note, here’s the offensive output from prospect Bo Naylor at Triple-A Columbus this season:

• .258/.402/.505 slash line, 46 walks and 49 strikeouts in 190 plate appearances

Kwan boasts a higher slugging percentage than the guy the Guardians committed $33 million to this winter. Maybe Josh Bell will benefit from a dose of “dad strength” after his wife gave birth to a baby girl over the weekend. One of the key ingredients missing from Cleveland’s lineup, though, is power from their prized offseason investment. Bell’s .348 slugging percentage ranks 148th out of 161 qualified hitters. Bell entered this season with a career slugging percentage of .459.

As for Kwan, his first-pitch swing percentage has nearly doubled since we published a story a few weeks ago on how he almost never swings at first pitches. OK, the story isn’t what has prompted the shift in approach, but with the scouting report evident to the opposition, Kwan has countered their adjustments.

“Especially with guys in the division,” he said. “I think the scouting report is showing a lot of fastballs down the middle. Just trying to hunt those.”

Five everyday players have separated themselves from the pack in terms of fWAR … and not in a good way. At the bottom of the leaderboard, pretty far from the rest of the qualified position players are five veterans:

• Amed Rosario: -0.7 fWAR
• Tony Kemp: -0.8 fWAR
• Jurickson Profar: -1.1 fWAR
• Jean Segura: -1.1 fWAR
• José Abreu: -1.2 fWAR

Rosario sports a .224/.270/.314 slash line (60 wRC+, meaning he’s been 40 percent less productive than a league-average hitter). He also ranks last in the majors among shortstops with minus-8 defensive runs saved.

With Gabriel Arias playing better, Tyler Freeman having nothing left to prove at Triple A and Brayan Rocchio nearing major-league readiness, with all three seeming more capable defensively and with Rosario bound for free agency in a few months anyway, there’s little reason for him, at this rate, to continue to start six or seven days a week in hopes he reverses course.

The Guardians are 6-2 when they hit multiple home runs in a game. But only eight games? Yikes.

The Twins, for instance, have socked multiple home runs in 23 of their 60 games. The Rays have hit multiple home runs in 30 of their 61 games.

Even the lowly Athletics have hit multiple home runs in 16 of their 61 games.

On the surface, Trevor Stephan’s numbers seem solid: a 2.84 ERA, more than a strikeout per inning, a tolerable walk rate. But look a bit deeper …

Opponents vs. Stephan in 2022: .238/.299/.329 slash line, three home runs in 267 plate appearances
Opponents vs. Stephan in 2023: .258/.321/.585 slash line, five home runs in 108 plate appearances

Stephan ranked in the 98th percentile in barrel rate last season but ranks in only the 20th percentile in that category this season.

Twins closer Jhoan Duran started Myles Straw with a 104.6 mph fastball on Friday night.

“I just started laughing,” Straw said. “I mean, it’s 104 mph. … It felt every bit of that.”

The next pitch: 104.5 mph. Then, Straw roped a single — it measured a mere 101.2 mph off his bat — on a 102.7 mph fastball. Francona joked with pitching coach Carl Willis that the flamethrower reminded him of a young Willis.

Willis said Sunday he thinks the hardest he ever threw was about 92 mph.

Shane Bieber’s starts with at least four strikeouts …

• 2023: 2 out of 12
• 2022: 29 out of 31
• 2021: 14 out of 16 (the two misses were both three-inning starts following his return from injury)
• 2020: 12 out of 12 (at least eight strikeouts in all 12)
• 2019: 32 out of 33 (lasted only 2 1/3 innings in the miss)
• 2018: 17 out of 19 (lasted only 1 2/3 innings in one of the misses)

That’s seven starts from 2018-22, and 10 starts already this season.

Will Brennan went 11-for-21 this week with a 1.327 OPS, which raised his overall OPS from .534 to .660.

“This might sound dramatic,” Kwan said, “but he might be one of our best players when he gets going. Contact, power, he can run, he has a great arm defensively, great baseball IQ.”

Brennan said he made some tweaks to his plan of attack, exhibiting more patience and resisting the urge to “swing at everything that’s being thrown at you” in order to emerge from his funk.

“Struggle brings out the best in you or the worst in you,” Brennan said. “You have to be able to make that choice and go along with that.”

Those Stephan stats were much worse than I realized. His long term contract may not working out quite as hoped.
Clase certainly was worth it last year and this year is less than perfect but still a top closer
Straw is a proven Gold Glover CF, still hasn't hit a HR since signing his deal, and his 235/314/294 OPS this year is probably as good as he gets
Giminez has now had one good week with a 393/414/571 slash line. He never walks and probably won't ever, but he needs to do a lot better than one homer is hislast 30 games.

The Athletic is into poetry in this week's power rankings. AL Central teams get these rankings and poetry

10. Minnesota Twins
Record: 31-29
Last Power Ranking: 9

An impressive series victory in Houston, capped by Louie Varland’s seven strong innings in the rubber game, should have handed the Twins a bunch of momentum. But then they split a four-gamer against the Guardians. The Twins have what they need to run away with the Central. Yet the division is still up for grabs. — NG

One team has to win
the Central in the end, right?
Right?! Who will it be?

22. Cleveland Guardians

Record: 27-32
Last Power Ranking: 26

A peek under the hood in Cleveland shows exactly what’s wrong and what will make them right. The Guardians won’t get anywhere this season with the worst offense in the league, no matter how good the pitching is. Sometimes you need to “take the hair with the hide” and lean into what you’re good at, to steal a phrase from hitting coach Chris Valaika. — NG

Home runs are hard to
find this season, rarer than
palm trees in Cleveland

24. Detroit Tigers

Record: 26-31
Last Power Ranking: 22

We knew the “Detroit Tigers, second place” era wouldn’t last forever. Losing five of six to the Rangers and White Sox was a splash of cold water. The Tigers’ injured list is extensive, featuring Eduardo Rodriguez and Riley Greene but also Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Austin Meadows and a bunch of other ballplayers whose absences are being felt. The silver linings are still there with this team, to be sure, but you have to be willing to really look for them right now. — NG

Reality check
They’ll still be bad for a bit
Just not Royals bad

25. Chicago White Sox

Record: 26-35
Last Power Ranking: 25

When you’re nine games south of .500 and down among the dregs of the league, with the worst OBP in the majors, you gotta take the wins however you can get them The White Sox walk it off on a pitch that hits the umpire in the face. — NG

“What in the world did
we just watch?” I have no clue
But the White Sox won

29. Kansas City Royals

Record: 18-41
Last Power Ranking: 29

A couple of eight-run outings ruined Brady Singer’s ERA, but the right-hander might be coming around. He looked right in striking out seven, against no walks, over 5 2/3 innings on Sunday. And the Royals nabbed a 2-0 win over the Rockies in Kansas City to dodge a sweep. — NG

Royals are on pace
for 112 losses
They should be better

Why the Guardians could trade Shane Bieber, and why the situation is complicated

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber throws during the first inning of the team's baseball game against the Boston Red Sox, Tuesday, June 6, 2023, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
By Zack Meisel
4h ago
23

Save Article
CLEVELAND — There’s an expiration date. Barring some unforeseen development, Shane Bieber won’t reside in Cleveland beyond the 2024 season. That’s when he’s bound for free agency.

That’s not the expiration date, though.

The Guardians don’t typically chauffeur their star players to the red carpet at the Winter Meetings. Players usually leave Cleveland on the club’s terms. Before long, Bieber will don another team’s uniform. Perhaps later this summer. Maybe this offseason.

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With a starting pitcher reinventing himself and the team trying to navigate its way through what has been, to this point, a disappointing season, the Guardians should have plenty of motivation over the next eight weeks to at least explore what a Bieber trade might look like, independent of their standing in the American League Central.

It’s a complicated situation, though.

The two sides have discussed a long-term pact in past springs, but the talks haven’t amounted to much. Bieber is earning a tick above $10 million this season, and will be eligible for a more lucrative payday next season.

Cleveland has a pattern of dealing starting pitchers amid similar circumstances.

• July 2019: Traded Trevor Bauer with one-plus year remaining of team control

• December 2019: Traded Corey Kluber with one year remaining of team control (plus a club option the Rangers ultimately declined)

• August 2020: Traded Mike Clevinger with two-plus years remaining of team control

The Guardians’ primary needs are glaring. They rank at or near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Any young hitter with the ability to rack up extra-base hits would be welcome. The two logical avenues to acquiring such a player: package prospects or trade Bieber. It might even behoove the Guardians to do both.

As is customary, the Guardians boast plenty of starting pitching depth, with rookies Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee asserting themselves as reliable, big-league options. Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale returned from the injured list last weekend. Gavin Williams, a consensus top-50 prospect, has fared well in seven starts for Triple-A Columbus.

That’s not to say the Guardians don’t need Bieber, who allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday against the Red Sox. Even without the devastating pitch arsenal that powered him to a unanimous AL Cy Young Award selection in 2020, he has still proven mostly effective, with a 3.57 ERA in 2023 and a 2.88 ERA across 200 innings in 2022. Plus, the Guardians will need to monitor the workloads of Allen, Bibee and Williams this season.

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But what, exactly, is Bieber at this point? Is he an ace? A mid-rotation guy? Is he more valuable to the Guardians or to another team?

Above all, what do other teams think he is? Would an acquiring team aim to extend him?

Bieber has far less margin for error than he did when he wielded a 94 mph fastball and when he leaned heavily on a lethal curveball. This year, though, his strikeout rate has plummeted and he has surrendered more hits and hard contact than ever before. He has tallied four or more strikeouts in only two of his 13 starts. His whiff rate has sharply decreased this season.


This season, Shane Bieber has averaged 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. In 2021, he averaged 12.5 per nine. (Geoff Burke / USA Today)
The key to all of this is the market. Which other starting pitchers will be available this summer, and how do other teams view Bieber in the present and the future?

Finding the right match could prove difficult. A quick survey of beat writers at The Athletic revealed the Angels (his hometown team), Orioles, Rangers, Cardinals, Astros, Padres, Mets and Dodgers could all express varying degrees of interest. Some of those teams have needs in their rotation. Some of those teams have a surplus of young outfielders. Some have both.

If the Guardians move Bieber this summer, it’ll be to a playoff contender. But will a contender part with a capable young hitter (or two) who has either reached the majors or is nearing such a promotion? In past deals, the Guardians have obtained both immediate and future help. For Clevinger, for example, they landed three big leaguers (Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges) and three prospects (Gabriel Arias, Owen Miller, Joey Cantillo).

One scout was skeptical Bieber could net the Guardians as much as the Reds received for Luis Castillo last summer, though they noted Cleveland’s front office rarely budges from its asking price. The Guardians may seek a return worthy of a No. 1 to No. 2 starter, but other teams (aside from the A’s) have access to FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, where they can unearth Bieber’s underlying metrics. Castillo, like Bieber, had a year and change remaining of team control. The Reds landed three of Seattle’s top five prospects, per MLB Pipeline, though the Mariners did turn around two months later and sign Castillo to a five-year deal worth more than $100 million.

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The Guardians employ a cast of middle-infield prospects who have either broken into the majors or are ready to do so at a moment’s notice. Arias, Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rocchio have all been considered top 100 prospects in the game at one point. Prospects Angel Martínez and José Tena also occupy spots on the club’s 40-man roster.

That leaves the outfield as an obvious target area. George Valera, the Guardians’ No. 2 prospect entering this season according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, is working his way back from a wrist injury. He could debut in the majors before the end of the summer.

Just based on team control, the Guardians can probably obtain more for Bieber at the trade deadline than if they held onto him until the offseason. Whether they can pinpoint a sensible fit remains to be seen. The trade deadline is Aug. 1. By then, we’ll have a better understanding of the Guardians’ contention status and of Bieber’s top-of-the-rotation reputation.

The Guardians haven’t exactly represented an AL juggernaut with Bieber aboard this season. Exploring a trade would be more about his future with the franchise than the team punting on 2023, especially with the weak state of the division. This isn’t about buying or selling; for the Guardians, it’s always about resource allocation.

Bieber probably won’t be part of the next great Cleveland rotation anyway. And the Guardians desperately need offensive upgrades. To fortify their roster in the short- and long-term, they need to address their lineup, and dangling Bieber might prove to be an effective route to doing that. The expiration date is approaching.

June 7: RHP Cody Morris waiting to hear next steps
The Guardians wanted to get Morris stretched out to three innings. [which has happened] At that point, the team would reevaluate the situation. Morris could either be stretched out as a starting option or can be a multi-inning reliever. The Guardians are trying to determine what's best for their needs, plus what's best for Morris' development. Manager Terry Francona said that they have not come to a decision yet on which path Morris will take.

[He was probably going to have the 8th spot in the bullpen which has now inhabited by Curry. Or would have been first starter in reserve when guys went on the IF, but those spots have successfully been filled by Allen and Bibee