Meisel: For the 2023 Cleveland Guardians, rock bottom is a moving target May 19, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; Cleveland Guardians relief pitcher Emmanuel Clase (48) reacts during the tenth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
May 22, 2023



NEW YORK — Last summer, the Guardians were that bug that follows you along your leisurely stroll down the sidewalk in your neighborhood, that pest you just know is deriving pleasure out of watching you deliver futile swat after swat after swat, that nuisance that buzzes as it circles your head and wears you down until you finally say, “Fine, go ahead. Do what you have to do.”

In 2023, the Guardians keep slamming head-first — antennae-first? — into a windshield.

Dubbing these first two months as some version of Murphy’s Law undersells what has transpired. What can go wrong has gone wrong, sure. But it’s how it goes wrong, with a sequence that teases fans into believing that, finally, Cleveland’s fortunes are changing for the better.

Every Guardians loss follows the most cruel, twisted script a screenplay writer could craft … that is, until the next loss. Rock bottom is a moving target.

On Friday night, when Cleveland’s offense emerged from a season-long slumber, the bullpen imploded in dramatic fashion, coughing up late leads of 7-3 and 9-7. On Sunday afternoon, when the Guardians erupted for a four-spot in the eighth inning, their most reliable reliever to this point, Trevor Stephan, handed the Mets the lead in eight pitches. On Sunday night, a Francisco Lindor checked swing placed the baseball in the perfect spot to spoil Shane Bieber’s masterpiece.

Three games. Three losses. Three one-run losses. Three one-run losses in which the Guardians were either tied or held the lead in the eighth inning.

“We were on the other side of the coin pretty much all last year,” Bieber said. “It’s one of those things we have to persevere through and understand that this game can be difficult, can be frustrating. You can catch some good breaks. You can catch some bad breaks. Right now, I feel like we’re finding ourselves catching the latter a little bit more.”

That echoes the message manager Terry Francona offered his team in a postgame meeting Sunday night, when a 2-1 loss followed a 5-4 defeat earlier in the day.

“I just wanted to remind them,” Francona said, “‘Don’t forget who we are and how we play.’”

How they have played this season has translated to a 20-26 record.

It’s difficult to pinpoint a player — save for a couple of rookie starters and long relievers — who has met or exceeded expectations.

Offensively, only José Ramírez (120) carries a wRC+ (weighted runs created, a way to encapsulate a hitter’s overall impact) greater than the league-average mark of 100. Josh Bell has walked a bunch but offered little punch. Andrés Giménez’s metrics paint a gloomy portrait of a hitter who makes a ton of weak contact and chases a ton of pitches out of the zone. Mike Zunino finally snapped an 0-for-27 (with 21 strikeouts) skid by legging out an infield single Sunday afternoon. For a team that needs to string together singles and walks to score, having an automatic strikeout lurking in the order essentially serves as a black hole that vacuums up any mounting scoring threat.

The Guardians’ outfielders have collectively hit three home runs, the fewest in the majors. The Nationals’ outfielders have hit the second-fewest, with nearly four times that total (11). Cleveland has cycled through Oscar Gonzalez, Will Brennan and now Gabriel Arias in right field. George Valera, a potential power threat for later this summer, landed on the injured list at Triple-A Columbus this weekend with a left hamstring strain.

Overall, 13 teams have hit at least twice as many home runs as the Guardians (28), even after Ramírez launched one to dead center and another to the upper deck in right field Sunday.
José Ramírez hits a home run in the first inning of the second game Sunday. (Gregory Fisher / USA Today)

The bullpen has picked some incredibly inconvenient spots to implode, which is magnified by the fact that the Guardians only play in tight contests. They haven’t won a game by more than three runs since their first win of the season, way back on March 31, when “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” was the top-grossing movie in theaters and the average gallon of gas cost $3.48. Life was simpler then. In all, they have played 22 one-run games, nearly half of their total.

“It’s frustrating as a team. We’re not playing too well together,” Stephan said. “It seems like the offense gets going and the bullpen has a tough game.”

The two primary relief culprits have been James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase, who leads the league in both saves and blown saves.

Karinchak in 2022: 0.5 homers per nine innings
Karinchak in 2023: 2.7 homers per nine innings

Clase in 2022: 5.3 hits allowed, 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings
Clase in 2023: 9.8 hits allowed, 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings

Cleveland’s relievers actually own the sixth-best ERA in the league (3.50), but they’re 23rd in home run rate and their timing in surrendering long balls has been less than ideal. Karinchak and Stephan have allowed 10 of them, after allowing a combined five last season.

When Francona mentioned “who we are and how we play,” he was referring to the club that built its brand on running wild (but intelligently) on the bases and playing mistake-free defense. Zunino and Amed Rosario have combined for minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved. Rosario ranks in the lowest possible percentile in Statcast’s Outs Above Average. As for the base running, the Guardians do rank fourth in the league with 45 stolen bases — imagine what that total would be if they reached base at a reasonable clip — but they didn’t run at all Sunday against an unimposing Mets catching tandem of Francisco Álvarez and Gary Sanchez, and Bell was thrown out by four subway stops when he tried to stretch a single into a double.
Josh Bell is tagged out after getting caught in a rundown in the first game. (Gregory Fisher / USA Today)

Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale are likely another rehab start or two away from rejoining the rotation, which will help. And, one would think, better days are ahead for some of the hitters who have established track records (Bell, Rosario, maybe Giménez). But there’s a lot to fix on this ship that has leaks springing up all over the place as it sails through the kiddie pool that is the AL Central.

Before long — today? tomorrow? the next day, perhaps? — the Guardians are going to have to abandon the status quo, whether that means turning to Bo Naylor at catcher, incorporating into the mix any of the young middle infielders who show a pulse or altering some high-leverage relief assignments. But the Guardians also need the players to whom they’ve staked this season to perform if they’re going to start swinging these coin-flip games in their direction.

What can go wrong has gone wrong. The question is whether it will keep going wrong.

“We’re not happy, by any means, with how that road trip just went,” Bieber said. “But no excuses. We’re going to stick together.”

No worries

Tito flips the switch June 1

Can you see my crossed fingers?

Inside a hitter’s mind: Guardians’ Mike Zunino on the search for a small victory Cleveland Guardians' Mike Zunino (10) bats against the New York Yankees in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Monday, May 1, 2023, in New York. The Guardian's defeated the Yankees 3-2. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)
By Zack Meisel
5h ago


Early in his career, Mike Zunino would dread a fourth at-bat if his first three each ended with a third strike. Over time, he learned that, to survive 162 games and hundreds of trips to the plate, he had to appreciate the small victories.

Instead of lumping together every failed contribution into one rotten game, he started to value the instances in which he’d hit a laser directly to a fielder or work a walk or force the pitcher to throw 10 pitches before recording an out.

“One good at-bat after another, when you start to build those up,” Zunino said, “that snowball effect leaves you in a positive state of mind. As a young hitter, it’s too easy to chase it. You’re in an 0-for-4, an 0-for-4 turns into an 0-for-8. Next thing you know, you’re 0-for-the-teens and you don’t know how to get out of it.”

Well, Zunino was in an 0-for-27 skid before he legged out an infield single on Sunday. That funk included 21 strikeouts.

But he’s hopeful he turned a corner with a two-run homer on Monday night, the first extra-base hit by a Cleveland catcher in three-and-a-half weeks.
Mike Zunino celebrates with Gabriel Arias after his two-run homer Monday against the White Sox. (David Richard / USA Today)

“The production has not been to where I’ve wanted it, but that’s part of this game,” Zunino said. “Certain stretches get magnified, but you have to come in, keep putting the work in, keep making the adjustments you need to, and results usually come from that.”

Such a profoundly wretched stretch would have rattled him years ago, but his mindset shifted in 2017 when he was optioned to the minors after a dismal April. Zunino read “Ninety Percent Mental,” by Bob Tewksbury, a former big-league pitcher who became a mental skills coach. And he leaned on Robinson Canó, who told him: “I get 650 to 700 at-bats a year. If I have a good year, I have 180 to 200 hits. I’m going to walk (a bunch of) times. So say 250 of my at-bats get taken out (for hits and walks). I’m left with 400. If I get pissed after every one of those 400, it’s going to be a long year.”

That’s where Zunino leans on those little victories. Let’s rewind to May 1, before his skid spiraled into a full-fledged freefall.

Zunino was 0-for-3 with three strikeouts against Yankees starter Domingo Germán. In the ninth inning, he approached the plate with the bases loaded, two outs, the score tied and New York reliever Wandy Peralta on the mound. Zunino chatted with The Athletic to detail the plate appearance pitch by pitch, moment by moment, thought by thought. Consider this a peek into a hitter’s process. It’s an opportunity to learn how his thinking evolves as a pivotal at-bat unfolds and the mental war wages on between the pitcher and hitter. On this night, the end result was an eight-pitch walk, which pushed across the game-winning run.

“Up until that point in the game,” Zunino said, “three at-bats I would love to just throw away. It’s very easy to have a night like that and you’re looking up to see where you’re at, see where your batting average has dropped to and think, ‘I really don’t want a fourth because I missed some pitches to hit and I don’t feel great.’ It’s flipping it and wanting to be in a situation like that, understanding that if we get to the ninth inning to a certain spot, I have a chance to put together a good at-bat to help the team.”
Pitch 1 (0-0): 90.1 mph changeup, foul

“I’ve faced (Peralta) in the past. His changeup is what he likes to go to. He threw a 3-0 changeup to Josh Bell, two hitters in front of me. I know that’s his bread and butter. So for me in this situation, I’m just trying to get that changeup up, trying to use the center of the field and knowing that if I’m in front, I have an opportunity to pull it. But I tried to get that changeup up to hit it in the middle of the field.”
Pitch 2 (0-1): 89.2 mph changeup, ball

“First-pitch changeup, swinging — I had it at the bottom of the zone, maybe a little bit lower than I wanted to. This one started just below that (to my perspective). I was still looking for the same pitch. I knew he got a swing-and-miss on it, so I think he may expand with it, so just looking for something higher up after I just fouled the first one off.”

“At that point, you’re just going speed differential. You’re slowing yourself down, starting a little bit later, playing to the 88-91 mph profile instead of the 96-97 (mph) profile.”
Pitch 3 (1-1): 96.5 mph fastball, ball

“He went fastball. I was still sitting on the changeup, but looking for it up, so once I saw it arm-side out of the hand, it was easy there. And once I saw what the fastball velocity was, I sort of knew where I could set my timing.”
Pitch 4 (2-1): 90.4 mph changeup, ball

“2-1, seeing that he went to the changeup in a hitter’s advantage count to Josh and knowing what his usage is, I was sitting there thinking that he’s still going to go to it, especially after he showed me a fastball off (the plate), that he maybe thought it would speed me up enough to get jumpy to a heater.”
Pitch 5 (3-1): 97.4 mph fastball, foul

“Another one where, after I saw the fastball up, I had my sights on where I needed to see everything. For me, it was the ability to zone it up. I saw the changeup down that I swung at. I saw the changeup below. I saw a fastball at a good height, but left arm-side right out of there.

“So 3-1, I know he can’t miss. I know where he’s missed with the changeup before. So, I flip it there and give myself more of a fastball approach, but I’m pushing my sights more to right-center. Doing that, if I’m trying to hit his fastball to right-center, if he leaves a changeup up in a 3-1 count and I happen to get fooled, I have the ability to keep my length and potentially be able to ride it out, more so to left-center because of the velocity separation. So I’m just giving myself a fastball, knowing it’s going to tail away. I’m really just trying to get on top and drive something to right-center.”
Pitch 6 (3-2): 97.1 mph fastball, foul

“Same thing there. Once he got to 3-1, I fouled that off. When it got to 3-2, I had to zone him up and be on a heater. At that point, I can’t run the risk of sitting on 6, 7 or 8 mph difference and being able to foul it off. Knowing where I saw the heater before, (I’m) looking for something in that spot and just trusting that my direction to right-center would help with covering a changeup.”
Pitch 7 (3-2): 97.3 mph fastball, foul

“Similar pitch. He threw it to spoil it. Still a good pitch to hit, but in that situation — I hate to say cover both, but really try to be on both (pitches). After I fouled that off, it was three in a row. After I put the two swings and fouls on the fastballs, that 3-2, I was sitting on that changeup.”

Who has the advantage this deep into a battle?

“I feel like you gain more information. As the at-bat went on, I started seeing pitches where I needed to see them, start to be able to put a good swing on it. But it’s getting into that situation and almost flipping the script. There are a lot of times where you’re like, ‘OK, two outs, we need to get a hit, we need to get the runs in.’ But understanding, too, there’s equally as much pressure on him. There’s one ball that comes out wrong, something doesn’t click and he walks me — there’s as much pressure on him to make a pitch as there is on me, so just really trying to simplify it and then get to a point where I’m just trying to take a nice, easy approach and stay aggressive, but to a much smaller location.”
Pitch 8 (3-2): 90.8 mph changeup, ball

“I think I would’ve taken that throughout the at-bat just because of where his profiles all started. In my mind, where the setup and stuff was, and the way his fade is, starting on that inner third and maybe trying to bring it back instead of flirting with the outer edge and missing off, as a catcher, I’m thinking that’s what he was probably trying to do. As it came out and where I saw it go, I could tell it was cutting in a little bit, so I had to give him that side and be able to cover up, out, over anything moving away from it.

“The sexy thing is to get a pitch and drive it in that situation and knock in two or more (runs). That’s what we all dream about doing. But that’s the thing, too, is understanding at that point, what we did the whole inning, pass the baton to the next guy, just keep it rolling. There are different situations. If the bases aren’t loaded and there’s a lefty behind me, you’re thinking maybe they’re trying to do this. So your level of aggressiveness may change, but with the bases loaded, getting to that point, you know (a walk) is just as good as anything.

“You go through three at-bats against another guy; Germán’s stuff was great. But you sit there and to be able to shut that off and go compete and not start thinking about, ‘My front hip was flying, I couldn’t maintain my back hip load’ — all these things that were going on in my first three (at-bats), and now it’s just like, ‘None of that s— matters. We have a chance to do something here in this inning. Just go compete.’ Those are the at-bats that dial you back in. You shut off all the mechanical cues and it’s just approach-based. Having the 20 seconds in between, I close my eyes and try to slow down while Yankee Stadium is going nuts, trying to tune out that noise. All you’re trying to do is see a ball in a certain spot and put your swing on it.”

Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee’s path to a punchout — Behind his approach to each pitch May 27, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee (61) throws a pitch during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
5h ago



CLEVELAND — Two pitchers have struck out Lars Nootbaar three times in a game: Shohei Ohtani and Tanner Bibee.

Nootbaar is a nuisance to pitchers because of his plate discipline and contact ability. He has flirted with a .400 on-base percentage this season. But on Saturday, Bibee triumphed in all three of their encounters.

There were early signs Bibee had the upper hand. Nootbaar swung-and-missed at the first two pitches of the game: a 93 mph fastball and an 83 mph changeup, delivered to similar spots in the strike zone. The at-bat ended with a swinging strike on another changeup on the outside corner.

“With that changeup, he doesn’t slow down to get it there,” said Guardians catcher Cam Gallagher, Bibee’s batterymate for Saturday’s start against the Cardinals. “It looks like it comes right out of his armpit. You’re trying to gear up for 97 mph and it’s coming out the same way and it has 10 to 15 mph difference. It’s a tough pitch to hit.”

Bibee piled up a career-high nine strikeouts in six innings. He has recorded a 2.88 ERA in his six major-league starts, with nine walks and 34 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings.

“Everything has slowed down,” Bibee said. “I wouldn’t say the adrenaline isn’t there. I’m just more comfortable.”

Bibee and Gallagher sat with The Athletic to break down the second of the three Nootbaar strikeouts pitch by pitch, providing insight into the pitch sequencing, planning and thought process behind Bibee’s approach to the third-inning matchup.
Tanner Bibee and Cam Gallagher walk to the dugout after a 1-2-3 sixth inning. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
Pitch 1 (0-0): 84.6 mph slider, ball

Bibee: That’s probably the third pitch he was expecting there. From what I’ve heard from listening to other hitters is they’ll usually pick out two pitches. I think it would probably be fastball/changeup. So I feel like if I can spin a slider there, steal a strike almost, or maybe even get some weak contact if he thinks it’s a fastball early — that’s the thought process with the first pitch.

Giving them a different look. If I throw that that early, that shows I want to throw that pitch. Subconsciously, they’re like, “OK, I have to worry about this. I have to worry about that. And now this.”
Pitch 2 (1-0): 83.1 mph changeup, strike

Bibee: When I’m behind in the count and throwing the changeup when they’re sitting on the heater, if I can throw it in the zone, whether it’s swing-and-miss or weak contact, I think it’s gonna be pretty good. (As a hitter), when (the pitcher’s) behind, for sure, you’re trying to do damage. I think throwing a changeup behind them, when it looks like the heater, it gets the bat going and it could be a double play or a strike.

Gallagher: After the swings we got off Nootbaar and then (Nolan) Gorman with the changeup in that first inning, I’m like, “This is going to play today.”
Pitch 3 (1-1): 94.6 mph fastball, ball

Bibee: He’s really good. There, I’m just trying to get ahead. He hasn’t seen a fastball yet in this at-bat. Seeing two soft (pitches), can’t stay soft the entire at-bat, so I have to get a heater in there at some point.
Pitch 4 (2-1): 95.3 mph fastball, strike

Bibee: (Laughs) The umpire, I’m surprised he gave that to me because he wasn’t giving as much outside. He was giving more in. Same thing, trying to get to 2-2.
Pitch 5 (2-2): 84.3 mph changeup, ball

Bibee: I’m trying to strike him out at that point.

Gallagher: You can feel sometimes what they’re taking and see what they’re sitting on. The first time he came up, he wasn’t expecting the changeup, and the next time, he was looking for the changeup and taking the fastballs away. We got him looking on the fastball. Then he’s thinking, “All right, maybe he’s gonna throw the fastball,” and he front-hipped the changeup, froze him. I could tell he was a little upset with how we pitched him because it was back-and-forth, something different every time.
Pitch 6 (3-2): 83.4 mph changeup, foul

Bibee: Trying to do the exact same thing, trying to get the bat going. Whenever I get to two strikes, it’s 3-2, but I’m trying to punch him out.

He certainly wasn’t intending to leave a changeup above the zone, though.

No. Not that high, no. (Laughs) (I wanted it) in the same spot as the last one. I was trying to get it on the outer third. I’ve struck out some people this year on up-and-away changeups, so I think that tunnels pretty solid with my heater up, but I never try to do it. If I can place a changeup (low and away), I feel like he’s at least going to get the bat going a little bit.

Gallagher: Just watching it over the past few starts, it’s something he hasn’t thrown that much and I’m like, “I think this pitch grades out a lot better than what you give it credit for.” I think it’ll be a weapon, especially for the lefties, but for the righties too — in fastball counts, if guys are gearing up for a fastball, it looks just like a heater.
Pitch 7 (3-2): 95.6 mph fastball, strike

Bibee: This is a good, old-fashioned example of trying-to-go-away-and-yanked-it-in and I got lucky.

I want to adjust before they can adjust. Say we both adjust at the same time, they’re going to adjust to their previous at-bat and I’m adjusting to the future, so I’m one step ahead of them. If I do the same at-bat every single time, I’m gonna get predictable. So that’s why I threw him that first-pitch slider. That wasn’t me calling it, though, that was (Gallagher). He’s smart as hell. I threw that first-pitch slider and it’s in (Nootbaar’s) head: slider. The rest of the at-bat was fastball/changeup, fastball/changeup, fastball/changeup.

It was cool to face a guy like that and win, and succeed in that way to solidify that, yeah, I do belong here.

Gallagher: It was so much fun. It’s like a video game. “Which pitch do I want? X, square, triangle or circle and put it in this location?”

21. Cleveland Guardians
Record: 24-30
Run differential: -36

The Guardians are eighth in the majors in team ERA but 30th in runs scored; they’ve actually scored fewer runs than Oakland, which doesn’t even seem possible. José Ramírez and Josh Naylor are the only two hitters on the team doing damage. Triston McKenzie is expected back soon and he’ll be a huge boost to their rotation.

Early trade deadline take: The Guardians are going to have to trade from their surplus of pitching to improve their offense and they match up well in a potential trade with the Cardinals, who have a plethora of outfield and infield bats.

Jim Bowden

18. St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 25-32
Run differential: +7

The Cardinals are one of the most disappointing teams this year. Their rotation, which ranks 23rd in collective ERA, has been their biggest Achilles’ Heel. Their offense has been solid thanks to the trio of Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Although their outfield production has been much less than expected, the Cardinals have the position players and depth to remain in the postseason race if their starting pitching improves.

Early trade deadline take: Their trade deadlines are always about precision moves, and this year it has to be all about addressing the rotation. They must get better in that department.

Jim Bowden

The Guardians are going to have to trade from their surplus of pitching to improve their offense and they match up well in a potential trade with the Cardinals, who have a plethora of outfield and infield bats.

Hmm, no one here had thought of that option

Guardians ace Shane Bieber keeps reinventing himself as a pitcher WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 16: Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches against the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Nationals Park on April 16, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
May 31, 2023

59
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Three starts ago, Shane Bieber allowed 12 hits to the White Sox, the most he has ever surrendered in a major-league outing.

He became the third Cleveland pitcher in the past decade, joining Danny Salazar and Zach McAllister, to yield that many hits in a start that failed to last five innings.

Five days later, Bieber tossed a complete game against the Mets and Justin Verlander, in a duel starring the two most recent unanimous American League Cy Young Award winners.

So, what changed from one start to the next?

“Umm, yeah,” Bieber said. “I’m not going to divulge all of that.”

Bieber remains Cleveland’s ace, but he has changed. He’s puzzling. He’s intriguing but mystifying.

Five days after facing New York, Bieber submitted a solid start against the Cardinals in which he walked four and struck out only two across 6 2/3 innings.

This is a guy who, a couple of years ago, eclipsed Randy Johnson’s record by tallying eight or more strikeouts in 20 consecutive starts.

Now, well, things are different. That doesn’t mean worse. Just … different.

Eighty-seven starting pitchers have logged 50 or more innings. Among them, Bieber ranks 76th in strikeout rate. The average ERA of the 11 pitchers ranked behind him: 5.17. He has registered more than four strikeouts in only two of 11 starts this season.

Bieber’s annual strikeout rate

2018: 24.3 percent
2019: 30.2 percent
2020: 41.1 percent
2021: 33.1 percent
2022: 25.0 percent
2023: 16.8 percent

Strikeouts aren’t everything. After all, Bieber is still effective, with a 2.88 ERA last year and a 3.04 ERA this season. In that start against the Cardinals, Bieber induced the lowest average exit velocity of his season, an important path to success for him.

Bieber is a pitcher undergoing a transformation. He’s almost unrecognizable when compared to his breakout season in 2019 or those 12 award-winning starts in 2020 or even his pre-injury resume from 2021.

There are underlying forces at play, of course: his shoulder injury, MLB rule changes, diminished fastball velocity (his least favorite subject), hitters’ approaches against him, and his ever-changing feel for certain pitches.

Bieber is a self-proclaimed perfectionist and cynic. He’s constantly saying he’s never satisfied, even when tinkering during a meaningless spring training start.

“He’s never happy,” Guardians pitching coach Carl Willis said, laughing.
Shane Bieber reacts after giving up a home run in April. (David Richard / USA Today)

Pitchers sometimes have to reinvent themselves, and not always by choice. Bieber, who turns 28 on Wednesday, has been tweaking and tweaking and tweaking some more.

So, who, exactly, is he at this point?

We’ll certainly be asking that question later this summer (and/or this winter) in the context of trades and free agency and his future with the Guardians. Bieber is eligible for free agency after the 2024 season. For now, though, let’s try to better understand Bieber and his evolution as a pitcher.
Bieber's pitch usage by year
2018

57.4

22.7

16.0

N/A
2019

45.7

26.5

20.5

N/A
2020

37.8

11.6

26.3

15.8
2021

35.3

25.5

31.2

3.2
2022

34.4

29.5

17.9

15.8
2023

32.8

26.7

11.3

25.3

A few takeaways:

• Bieber implemented the cutter in 2020 and now leans on it far more than he ever has. It carries the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches (30.3 percent), but it’s also the pitch opponents have hit the best (.536 opponent slugging percentage), and there’s been a spike in exit velocity against it this season (91.6 mph, up from 86.1 mph last year).

• There’s been a steady decline in Bieber’s fastball usage over the years.

Fastball whiff rate by year

2020: 25.4 percent
2021: 22.8 percent
2022: 15.1 percent
2023: 6.9 percent

He noted hitters are seeking out his off-speed stuff more and more, so it stands to reason he’ll rely on the cutter, since it looks like his slider, but it’s harder and doesn’t move quite as much.

“Clubs expect him to spin the ball,” Willis said, “so it’s not just a matter of upping the usage of his fastball as much as maybe, while doing that, changing the location a little bit and trying to make them honor both sides of the plate a little more.”

• His curveball remains an imposing pitch (.297 opponent slugging percentage), but not to the devastating degree it was a few years ago. Its whiff rate has dropped considerably, and he throws it far less frequently than he did a couple of years ago.

Curveball whiff rate by year

2019: 48.4 percent
2020: 51.5 percent
2021: 41.8 percent
2022: 40.7 percent
2023: 30.0 percent

Now, let’s talk to Bieber about some of his pitch usage.

Can you map out a blueprint for how you want to deploy your pitches throughout the year — like starting with an emphasis on a certain pitch and changing your tendencies as the year goes on?

I guess you could, but it’d probably end up just being a waste of time. You get in the game and everything changes. One day, you don’t have that curveball. Or they’re taking great swings off of it. Once you get in a game, you have to take it game by game and then you find opportunities to work in new things or trends.

How do you find those opportunities? Is that done more in the days between starts?

Yeah, or you just — for me, just paying attention to my fastball usage. When we got to Boston and New York (in late April/early May), I upped it a little bit, even with two strikes. In Boston, I threw a lot (of fastballs) in two-strike counts and they were getting beat by them — groundballs away, easy groundouts. They were looking for spin.

How much does your experience afford you the chance to stay one step ahead?

Yeah, maybe. I guess it’s experience and just being aware of what’s going on and the lineups you’re attacking.

Your cutter usage is up a lot and your curveball usage is down. Is that a result of your feel with each pitch, scouting reports or something else?

It also plays into the counts I’m getting myself into. I’m sure if you look, when I’m down in the count, my cutter usage is way up. It’s a fastball with a wrinkle in it, a little more margin for error at this point. There are a number of factors. It’s hard to put everything in one box.

Are you embracing constantly tinkering and reinventing yourself?

I guess it’s fun, but it’s stressful. This is fun. It’s a sport. Being a starting pitcher is glorious, but it’s stressful. Having traffic every inning? Not fun at all. That’s zero fun.

The pitch mix you’re relying on right now, could it look completely different in August and September?

Yeah. It probably will be. Adapt and survive.
Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner, is a different pitcher now. (Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Three attributes stand out about Bieber’s season thus far.

1. He’s allowing a bunch of hard contact.

2. Hitters aren’t chasing his pitches out of the zone as often.

3. Hitters’ rate of swinging and missing against him has dramatically dropped.

Bieber is right about his cutter usage when behind in the count. It increases from 25.3 percent to 36.2 percent. When Bieber is ahead in the count, his curveball usage, unsurprisingly, more than doubles.

For all of the traffic on the basepaths Bieber has dealt with, he has masterfully wiggled his way out of harm. With runners in scoring position, Bieber has limited opponents to a .147/.173/.235 slash line, an opponent OPS that’s 92 percent worse than league average in such situations.
Bieber's whiff/chase rates by year
2018

59th percentile

63rd percentile
2019

81st percentile

83rd percentile
2020

98th percentile

94th percentile
2021

97th percentile

83rd percentile
2022

78th percentile

73rd percentile
2023

31st percentile

56th percentile

Opponents’ average exit velocity versus Bieber:

2018: 16th percentile
2019: 8th percentile
2020: 31st percentile
2021: 29th percentile
2022: 15th percentile
2023: 6th percentile

So, he’s transformed from a pitcher seeking strikeouts to one pitching to contact. Hence, the lack of strikeouts.

What allows Bieber to still thrive with such an altered attack? Guardians manager Terry Francona cited his “intelligence,” “competitiveness” and “work ethic,” saying “he’s always striving for something.”

“He sets his bar so high,” Francona said, “it’s so hard to attain.”

Francona also mentioned he recently caught up with Steve Rogers, his former Expos teammate and another pitcher who successfully reinvented himself. Rogers finished in the top five in the National League Cy Young Award balloting on three occasions, all after his 30th birthday.

Cam Gallagher remembers facing Bieber a couple of years ago when he was the Royals’ backup catcher.

“My approach off him would be, ‘I have to be really stubborn on down-and-away (pitches), because he’s one of the best in the game at being able to hit that spot with his fastball and his breaking balls are plus-plus.'”
Bieber pitches against the Mets on May 3. (Brad Penner / USA Today)

Gallagher caught Bieber’s start against the Mets a week and a half ago. He has a new perspective crouching behind the plate with Bieber on the mound, instead of standing beside it.

“His fastball command is so good, you don’t want to come out throwing slider, slider, slider, slider right away. You want to see what their approaches are. New York’s approach against him was to get on him early. ‘We’re not going to let him get to the breaking ball.’ We threw a lot more inside than he probably did in ’19 and ’20, just to protect that down-and-away. He has such good control, he can put it up and in, down and away, up and away whenever he wants. Being able to execute the location of the fastball helps out everything else.”

And that’s the bottom line with Bieber, and always has been: command. It’s what made him a fourth-round draft pick in 2016, what fueled his rapid ascent through Cleveland’s farm system and what made his transition to the majors rather seamless. Even with a fastball hovering around 91 mph and a pitch arsenal that has undergone significant renovations, his ability to hit his spots has kept him at the front of the Guardians’ rotation.

“Would he love to throw hard? I’m sure he would,” Willis said, “but him being able to go out and be what he is right now for 32 starts (in a season) is a lot better than if he were throwing 95 mph and made 18 starts. He can still pitch. He commands the ball really, really well. He challenges himself. I think that’s how he’s able to go out on any given day, regardless of what he’s bringing to the mound that day, and find a way to compete with it.

“That’s pitching.”

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: Who has the upper hand in the AL Central? May 5, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) tags out Minnesota Twins pinch runner Michael A. Taylor (2) in the eighth inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel and Dan Hayes
5h ago


It’s the battle for AL Central supremacy … or something like that. So before the 25-30 Guardians head to Minnesota to face a 29-27 Twins team in a four-game set this weekend, our beat writers discuss the states of their teams, who has a better shot at winning the division and much more.

Zack Meisel: OK, can we agree not to mention the sorry state of the division as we preview this Twins-Guardians series? We’re all aware: If your team isn’t, oh, I don’t know, 20 games under .500, you have a shot at winning this thing. (Better luck next year, Royals.)

With that said, from Cleveland’s point of view, this series feels important — as important as an early-June encounter can feel, at least. The Guardians have stumbled through the first two months, pressure has mounted for them to make some changes and now they have something of a litmus test against the team they’re chasing.

What about the Twins? Where do they stand? Does this series seem like anything more than a run-of-the-mill AL Central matchup from their perspective?

Dan Hayes: I think it’s difficult to play up the value of this singular series because of the stretch it’s occurring in the middle of: a 16-game run in which they’re playing Toronto twice, at Houston and at Tampa Bay. Of course, Cleveland carries weight because of what occurred last season, and the Twins can’t forget how much of a role they played in giving the Guardians momentum last June with those two series. But they have enough issues of their own to worry about right now.
Carlos Correa hasn’t provided the offensive thump the Twins have needed. (Brandon Sloter / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

While the Twins finally have starting pitching, a variety of issues are preventing them from running away with the division at a time when the opening is significant. These teams’ offensive issues are incomparable. Cleveland’s woes are much worse. But the Twins are sitting directly in the middle of the majors in runs scored with an underperforming offense that hasn’t hit its stride and is maddeningly inconsistent. The team’s bases-loaded struggles would qualify as legendary if they continue. The defense is porous and the bullpen has been forced into action too often, which has led to losing too many winnable games.

Whereas later in the season this series might carry more weight, I don’t think the Twins can do anything but focus on righting themselves first.

What is Cleveland’s path to getting back on track?

Meisel: Man, I thought the Guardians’ troubles with the bases loaded were alarming (.549 OPS), but then I peeked at the Twins’ numbers — a .272 OPS! — and I can’t understand how that’s even possible. Have they tried simply not loading the bases?

It’s really straightforward for Cleveland: Score runs.

Here’s a full list of position players who have met or exceeded expectations this season:

[birds chirp]

[a plane flies by overhead]

[the neighbor’s St. Bernard barks at an Amazon delivery person]

Yeah, no one. José Ramírez has been…fine. Josh Naylor has had a couple weeks in which he’s gone bonkers. That’s, uh, about it. So, they’re stuck hoping Amed Rosario, Josh Bell and Andrés Giménez turn it around, praying someone stakes claim to the revolving door in right field and debating when to call up Bo Naylor and maybe Brayan Rocchio. It hasn’t been pretty. They hit three home runs in a game Wednesday for the first time all season. The slash-and-dash style of Tito’s Bloop Troop we witnessed in 2022 has only made sporadic appearances.

There will be some turnover in this lineup this summer, either by call-ups, alterations to playing time, trades or all of the above. If any of that can spark an increase in scoring, it would ease the burden on what is another Cleveland playoff-caliber pitching staff, especially with Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale returning from the injured list.

How has your view of the Twins changed with two months of evidence at your disposal? Are you more confident in their ability to win the division than you were on Opening Day? If so, is that because of the ineptitude in Cleveland and Chicago, or because the Twins have brighter days ahead?

Hayes: On Opening Day I thought the Twins would be a really strong competitor for the division as long as they remained healthy. Their rotation promised to be much improved over the past two seasons and it’s been outstanding. I thought that could carry them to contention because the offense would hit.

Nothing about these two months has changed my view of them as a contender. Frankly, they look stronger because of how poorly everyone else has played.

What continues to be shocking is that Carlos Correa has yet to have a hot streak and the offense has really underperformed. Entering Wednesday, they’d scored three or fewer runs in 47 percent of their games, which means they’re playing in way too many competitive contests. Playing in 3-1 games every day can wear a team down because you’re never too far out of it to use good relievers or you’re trying to maintain a tight lead.

Meisel: Not to be that guy, but the Guardians have scored three runs or fewer in 58 percent of their games and, well, they’re on pace to match the major-league record for one-run games. It should come as no surprise, then, that closer Emmanuel Clase leads the league in appearances (and saves (and blown saves)).

Hayes: Oh, I know how dismal that Guardians offense is right now. Twins fans are frustrated and deservedly so. But to compare the two is absurd.

Still, Correa entered this season with loads of expectations because of the $200 million contract. Thus far, his offensive performance has been disappointing aside from providing several game-winning hits. His career performance suggests he’ll turn it around, but I don’t think the Twins can afford to wait until August or September. They need to start relieving pressure on the pitching staff. There has to be an expectation that the starting pitchers will regress and the bullpen needs a breather.

These are very good problems to have. But they’re also problems that must be addressed before they become issues that can take down a team with a clear path to a division title.

Do you think Cleveland has a shot at this, and what do you make of the Twins?

Meisel: In this division, why not? But for me to take them seriously, I need to see some sort of progress. Maybe the club’s effort in Baltimore this week is the first sign. After scoring five runs in a game once over the previous two weeks, they did it three consecutive times against the Orioles, including a 12-run explosion on Wednesday. Still, I don’t know for sure if Bo Naylor will produce more at the plate than Mike Zunino, but I find it hard to believe he could do worse. I don’t know if Rocchio or Tyler Freeman are the answer, but I don’t see the harm in offering them some at-bats.

More than anything, I think the Guardians will be a fascinating team to monitor as the trade deadline approaches. I could see them trading Shane Bieber, regardless of their standing. I could see them targeting hitters with multiple years of control, regardless of their standing. Maybe those two things overlap.

What about the Twins? Will this be an arms race in July because these teams figure the division is, almost by default, up for grabs?

Hayes: I think the Twins recognize this is the time to push for the division and will act accordingly at the trade deadline. As long as Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo López remain healthy, they don’t have to seek a top-flight pitcher as in years past. The trio is the best group of arms the Twins have had in a very long time.

Because they have Jhoan Duran in place, they need to focus on adding good, quality arms to the bullpen and not the elite-level guy to close out a game, though that could never hurt. Really, it’s about this offense figuring out what it is. If they can hit at a top-10 level consistently, the Twins are in good shape.

They absolutely need Jorge Polanco to stay on the field — this group is in desperate need of a consistent run producer in the middle. Perhaps that could be Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis. But it would be better if Polanco returns to his 2021 form and just drives in runs.

But as long as they don’t seriously break down from a physical standpoint, I see the Twins doing what they have to, not only to win the division, but end that hideous 18-game playoff losing streak. That’s a good position to be in regardless of how much the division stinks.

Reinvented Bieber looked too much like Quantrill on Wednesday. I still believe that the Cy Young Season needs to be discounted to some degree since he faced ONLY Central Division teams until his terrible playoff start for the Yankeee.

Zack Meisel
@ZackMeisel
·
9m
Triston McKenzie will start Sunday.

Aaron Civale will start Friday.

Josh Naylor was scratched tonight with a sore wrist.

Cal Quantrill will head to the injured list with shoulder inflammation. He got an injection and will be shut down for a bit.

civ ollilavad wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:06 pm Reinvented Bieber looked too much like Quantrill on Wednesday. I still believe that the Cy Young Season needs to be discounted to some degree since he faced ONLY Central Division teams until his terrible playoff start for the Yankeee.

Hey civ - regarding Bieber I think there are a number of issues there.

1. Most likely he benefitted from extra strength grip stuff. This is not an indictment since a ton of MLB pitchers obviously did the same.

2. He may or may not have suffered from the pitch clock. The run scoring environment in all MLB (excluding Cleveland..haha) is way up this year.

3. He is a bit older with mileage. That shoulder issue probably reduced that velocity permanently.

That said, he is a smart MLB pitcher who can pitch to contact when he is on. Very valuable still but we got spoiled. Consider him a #2 these days.

I'm happy to have him! and hope we can keep him. Although maybe that's impossible. Bieber McKenzie Bibee Wiliams and Allen sounds like a nice rotation. If they are all healthy!

Terry Pluto puts Civale in the pen, keeps Q in the rotation, although his story was written before we discover Q is heading for the IL

By

Terry Pluto, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Soon it will be June. When I was a kid, the Tribe sometimes started fast, then had a June Swoon. The season expired somewhere around the Fourth of July. But these Cleveland teams often just get started in June. Fans have questions:

Hey, Terry: Do you keep Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen in starting rotation and maybe keep one of them for long relief when Triston Mckenzie comes back? – Bill Fredrick.

Hey, Bill: Bibee (2.88 ERA) and Allen (2.72 ERA) must remain in the rotation. Don’t touch those guys. Shane Bieber is the ace. Cal Quantrill is off to a rocky start, but I believe in him. That leaves McKenzie and Aaron Civale – both coming off the injured list – for the last spot. I’d give it to McKenzie.

Civale was 10-2 with a 3.32 ERA late in June 2021. He injured his finger. That was the first of five trips to the injured list. Since that injury, Civale has a 4.86 ERA when he does pitch. He goes to the bullpen in long relief. The other option is a six-man rotation, not sure that’s a good idea. The case for it is that McKenzie and Civale are coming off injuries. Allen and Bibee have not pitched a lot of innings in their pro careers.
OFF TO A ROCKY START

Cal Quantrill is 2-4 with a 5.61 ERA this season. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com

Hey, Terry: Is there any interest in trading Quantrill? I know he is young, but his ceiling isn’t as high as Allen, Bibee, Sticks (McKenzie), Gavin Williams, etc. Any chance they look to trade Quantrill as well as Bieber? – Tim Podzol.

Hey, Tim: Quantrill is 2-4 with a 5.61 ERA. Heading into this season, he was 23-8 with a 3.11 ERA since being traded to Cleveland from San Diego. I believe in this guy. He’s not as gifted as some of their starters, but he has been effective. He is under team control until the end of the 2025 season.

Think about the rotation of Zach Plesac, Mike Clevinger, Civale and Bieber of a few years ago. Clevinger has had Tommy John surgery. He is on the injured list again, this time with the White Sox. Civale can’t stay healthy. Plesac is 1-2 with a 5.57 ERA at Class AAA Columbus.

Only Bieber has stayed consistent. Even he missed three months in 2021 with a shoulder problem. I’m hanging on to Quantrill, who has never had an arm injury.
BIG TIME START

Logan Allen has a 2.72 ERA since being promoted from the minors. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com

Hey, Terry: Why the need to rush and give Andres Gimenez a big contract based off half a season? Dude is now a middle of the order everyday player and on pace for less than 30 RBI. – Jeff Neiner

Hey, Jeff: To be fair, it was a full, 2022 All-Star season. Gimenez has been considered a top prospect since he signed with the Mets for $1.2 million out of Venezuela in 2015. That’s a high bonus in the international market.

He skipped over Class AAA and went to the majors with the Mets in 2020. He batted a respectable .263 (.732 OPS) for New York that season in 49 games at age 20. He came to Cleveland as the key part of the Francisco Lindor deal after the 2020 season.

In early June of 2022, I wrote a column about how his career matches the early years of Jose Ramirez. Gimenez batted .297 (.837 OPS) with 17 HR, 69 RBI, 20 stolen bases and won a Gold Glove at second. All at age 23.

The seven-year, $104 million deal to keep him under team contract was praised around baseball as a smart move by Cleveland, much as the Tribe did with Ramirez after his breakout 2016 season.

But this year ... YIKES! He started OK, batting .253 (.717 OPS) in April. Since May 1, he’s batting .180 (.473 OPS) with two extra base hits in 83 plate appearances. He remains an elite second baseman. He can steal bases. They need him to hit, period. I believe in this guy, but Gimenez at the plate right now is painful to watch.
SO-SO AT COLUMBUS

Oscar Gonzalez has not been hitting well in the minors. John Kuntz, cleveland.com

Hey, Terry: When do you see Oscar Gonzalez coming back? – Kevin Vieria

Hey, Kevin: Cleveland would love to see SpongeBob Gonzalez start to hit. But at Class AAA Columbus, he’s batting .253 (.692 OPS) with three HR and 17 RBI in 84 plate appearances. He is struggling with confidence. He has 17 strikeouts compared three walks. I doubt he comes back soon unless his performance dramatically improves.

Hey, Terry: Who has been the hitting coach the last few years. What is his history? – Markus Mattson.

Hey Markus: His name is Chris Valaika. He joined the Guardians last season and was praised for their contact-first approach. It was his first season as a head MLB batting coach. He had been an assistant hitting coach with the Cubs in 2021, and worked in their farm system before that.

This is the classic baseball tale. The guy is a near genius with a fresh approach one season. The next year, he looks helpless trying to snap many of the same hitters out of their slumps.

Big News !!!!!!

Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
·
1h
#Guardians transactions

SS Brayan Rocchio promoted from Columbus

1B Josh Bell placed on the paternity list

RHP Aaron Civale reinstated off the IL

RHP Cal Quantrill placed on the IL