How the Guardians have surged to the top of the AL Central: Behind the numbers
CLEVELAND, OH - AUGUST 15: Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Xzavion Curry (71) delivers a pitch to the plate during the second inning of game 2 of the Major League Baseball doubleheader between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians on August 15, 2022, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)
By Zack Meisel
CLEVELAND — Xzavion Curry, wearing a black polo and khaki pants and holding his baseball glove, entered the home clubhouse at Progressive Field for the first time Monday afternoon.
He shook hands with Carl Willis and recalled how the pitching coach told him in spring training that if he developed his slider, they “would talk” at a big-league ballpark one day.
“And now we’re talking,” Willis told him.
Curry introduced himself to his new teammates and spotted the red No. 71 jersey hanging in his locker and the nameplate above the locker two stalls to his right. That spot belongs to Will Benson, Curry’s close friend since the two played Little League together outside of Atlanta nearly 20 years ago.
When Benson arrived in the clubhouse, the two hugged. And a few minutes later, they hugged again in a different corner of the room.
In Georgia, they played together on the Sandtown Red Sox. And on Monday, with Curry on the mound and Benson patrolling center field, they played together in the big leagues. They were called up within two weeks of each other.
“We’ve been talking about this day forever,” Benson said.
Curry became the 14th player to make his major-league debut for the Guardians this season. That number would seem to indicate the team is enduring a painful rebuilding year.
(Checks the AL Central standings.)
OK, that’s not the case. So, here are (more than) five numbers that do, actually, explain how the Guardians are contending.
1: The team’s rank, among the league’s 30 teams, in strikeout rate, contact rate and swinging strike rate
So. Much. Contact. The Guardians have cultivated a brand of baseball that was far more common when guys named Boots and Dizzy and Nap and Shorty played a century ago.
Consider their sizable leads in the following categories …
• The difference between Cleveland and the second-ranked team in strikeout rate (Houston) is greater than the difference between the second- and eighth-ranked teams.
• The difference between Cleveland and the second-ranked team in contact rate (Colorado) is greater than the difference between the second- and 12th-ranked teams.
• The difference between Cleveland and the second-ranked team in swinging strike rate (Arizona) is equal to the difference between the second- and 17th-ranked teams.
The style of play was derived from a new hitting coach, Chris Valaika, preaching plate discipline and using the whole field to a group of hitters who possessed the ability to do such things. Bobby Bradley and his all-or-nothing profile didn’t fit the mold. Steven Kwan, an unheralded prospect turned lineup table setter, does.
The Guardians rank ahead of only the Tigers in home runs — and, really, any beer-league team would rank ahead of Detroit in home runs — but they have compensated for their lack of thump with a relentless barrage of contact. A flourishing Franmil Reyes would have added another dimension to the lineup, sure; they could use extra muscle when they’re having a game in which they struggle to string hits together. Perhaps Oscar Gonzalez or Nolan Jones (or, eventually, George Valera) will develop into a dependable power source.
4: The number of American League hitters who rank ahead of Andrés Giménez in WAR
Only Aaron Judge, José Ramírez, Yordan Alvarez and Rafael Devers rank ahead of Cleveland’s 23-year-old All-Star on the FanGraphs hitters leaderboard. Andrés Giménez ranks fourth in the AL — and first on the Guardians — in wRC+, an all-encompassing metric that measures a player’s offensive output relative to the rest of the league. In simple terms: Giménez has been one of the best hitters in the league, on the heels of a forgettable 2021 season. It’s quite the ascent, and his consistency has, at times — including Monday — kept Cleveland’s offense afloat. (He’s also playing a Gold Glove-caliber second base.)
Giménez’s companion in the middle infield (and in the trade package for Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco), Amed Rosario, hasn’t disappointed this season, either. Rosario ranks second in the AL in hits.
And if you prefer Baseball Reference’s WAR tool over the FanGraphs version, as of Monday, Cleveland claimed four of the top 34 players in baseball on that leaderboard: Giménez (11th), Ramírez (14th), Rosario (33rd) and Kwan (34th).
2.17: Cleveland’s bullpen ERA over the last month
That number, entering Monday’s action, was tied with the Cubs for the best mark in baseball. And it coincides with the resurgence of James Karinchak, who has registered 13 consecutive scoreless appearances, spanning 14 2/3 innings. He has totaled 27 strikeouts in that stretch, while limiting the opposition to a .348 OPS. Karinchak and Trevor Stephan have formed a viable setup duo in front of soul-devouring closer Emmanuel Clase, who has converted 21 consecutive save chances. Nick Sandlin hasn’t allowed a run in six weeks and Sam Hentges hasn’t allowed a run since the All-Star break. Outside of Eli Morgan, whose reliability has evaporated over the last two months, and Bryan Shaw, the group has excelled this summer.
78: The Guardians’ stolen-base total, which ranks third in the majors
Giménez, Rosario, Ramírez, Kwan and Myles Straw have all amassed at least 11 steals, so it’s not as though the team is waiting on its one speedster to reach and then wreak havoc on the bases. The lineup is full of guys capable of pestering the opposition. As a club, they have a stolen base success rate of 82 percent, fifth best in the majors.
Their speed pays dividends in other ways, too. The Guardians rank second in the majors in infield hits. There’s also the underrated benefit of beating out a would-be double play, as Gonzalez did Sunday afternoon in Toronto, which extended the inning for Owen Miller to hit him home with a two-out double. Contact and speed can be quite the effective combination.
1.57: Cleveland’s starting pitcher ERA over the last 10 games
For much of the season, the rotation was pedestrian — not overwhelming, not underwhelming, just … whelming. Shane Bieber has insisted he’s closing in on repairing his mechanics, which got out of whack when his shoulder started barking last season. His average fastball velocity Sunday sat at a season-high 93.1 mph (although the Blue Jays did whack the pitch, with an average exit velocity of 101.5 mph). Triston McKenzie has bloomed into a confident front-line starter. Cal Quantrill has submitted his best outings of the season his last two times on the mound. And Aaron Civale authored his top performance of the year Monday afternoon.
Guardians starters, last 10 games: 63 innings, 41 hits, 11 earned runs, eight walks, 60 strikeouts.
Cleveland has weathered a slew of doubleheaders, the Shaw-the-Starter experiment and a reliance on Kirk McCarty, Tanner Tully and Konnor Pilkington, and now the rotation seems to be rounding into shape. Starting pitching has been the backbone of the team for the last decade. Can it steer the Guardians to a division title?
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